The Argument for a Rookie QB

[Poet]

This argument will have a couple of assumptions, so do take stock of that.

One - a QB will be there for us to get. This could mean a trade up, which isn't out of the question or scary as recent history shows us it's quite common: Wentz, Goff, Watson, etc.

This assumes Fangio and Elway are both on board, obviously.

This does not technically presume that the QB is a first rounder, although that almost feels like a given. QBs are so desired that guys get taken in the first round who should be second rounders. Etc. Etc. Etc. We all know the drill.

But why a QB? Some argue that it is a way to strengthen the team for the future. I have been beating those drums forever and a day. Still, another consideration is that it might help us win...now. Why? Well, look at the other option, first. FA QB's are few and far between. No one is really stoked for Keenum anymore, for instance. Cousins put up another great season statistically, and I think he's still a fine QB, but missing the playoffs altogether seems...wrong. In short, it's hard to nail it down with the QB for the team.

But, we have seen teams draft a young QB and do well in the standings. Seattle with Wilson, Ben with the Steelers, Flacco with the Ravens, Watson with the Texans, etc. The point is that each situation was a little different, but in all of those instances, a great defense, or a defense becoming great, was there. And this is where the rookie QB truly shines.

Why? Because that rookie contract....girls and boys...that's what dreams are made off. If your rookie QB is good, whether that means good for the situation, good compared to other rookies, or just having a flat out good season as a QB, you are getting insane value. QB costs are massive. Not to pick on Keenum, but even his average salary, for a QB, takes up a chunk of the cap.

So, if you get a QB to overperform, even if it means smoke and mirrors from a coordinator, a great defense putting them in a situation to succeed, and a running/short passing game that keeps the QB on schedule, you can do well. This leads us to a hidden presumption: we all feel pretty good about expecting Fangio, a defensive genius to shape the defense up a bit and smooth out the edges. Yeah, we have some questions in the secondary, but this team tends to find secondary players, especially corners pretty well. It's a gamble to say "oh we'll be good next year on D," but not all gambles are dire. It's the rest of the team.

The offensive line was average - people will dispute that, argue against it, and I get it. It wasn't pretty. But you have to compare the line to other lines this season. Not what good line play used to look like - the college game doesn't develop OL very well anymore. It's an uphill battle. The WR corp looks promising, but it's young. And unproven. Sanders' injury, one which has really taken a toll out of athletes in the past, is worrisome. There are no tight ends, either. The offense is the biggest issue on the team.

Yet, the line has improved, we will have a good coach there in Munchak, assuming we can hire him. There's hope there, and maybe just maybe you sign a veteran WR/TE as a solid stopgap. Not everything needs to be drafted.

But, the real argument isn't even that the QB builds out into the future. Nor is it that a young QB can be cheaper and better alternative to veteran retreads in the short term...it's that it can do both. And if the rest of the roster does struggle to fit together during the early years, the QB develops and we have more chances in more FA periods/drafts to fix the roster.

I think drafting a QB is the smart play. If Denver thinks a guy is worth taking, get him.

:salute::salute::salute::salute::salute:

[Dapper Dan]

Can someone tl;dr this?

[Shazam!]

I cant read all that Joel but thanks man

[chazoe60]

I like Haskins and Lock. Lock seems like he could be there when we draft while Haskins will probably need to be traded up for. Of course this will change greatly by draft time. I remember this time last year it looked like we could trade down or back into the middle/late 1st round and pick Mayfield. :laugh::laugh::laugh:.

[Poet]

I like Haskins and Lock. Lock seems like he could be there when we draft while Haskins will probably need to be traded up for. Of course this will change greatly by draft time. I remember this time last year it looked like we could trade down or back into the middle/late 1st round and pick Mayfield. :laugh::laugh::laugh:.

QB's are wild, man.

[Northman]

The Jags or Giants will take Haskins and most likely Lock as well so im actually quite fine taking a guy like Devin White with the first pick. In fact, im becoming more and more comfortable with that since i know we will have Keenum for at least one more year. There are some QB's in the draft that we can nab in the later rounds if we just want to throw shit at the fan and take a chance if need be. Next year is where we will probably make our play for top tier QB in the draft unless they trade for another vet or young QB before that happens.

[Shazam!]

If they don't get Lock or someone who can be legit better i will be so upset

[Poet]

The Jags or Giants will take Haskins and most likely Lock as well so im actually quite fine taking a guy like Devin White with the first pick. In fact, im becoming more and more comfortable with that since i know we will have Keenum for at least one more year. There are some QB's in the draft that we can nab in the later rounds if we just want to throw shit at the fan and take a chance if need be. Next year is where we will probably make our play for top tier QB in the draft unless they trade for another vet or young QB before that happens.

If we do have to wait another year we better move heaven and earth for the top guy.

[Jsteve01]

The Jags or Giants will take Haskins and most likely Lock as well so im actually quite fine taking a guy like Devin White with the first pick. In fact, im becoming more and more comfortable with that since i know we will have Keenum for at least one more year. There are some QB's in the draft that we can nab in the later rounds if we just want to throw shit at the fan and take a chance if need be. Next year is where we will probably make our play for top tier QB in the draft unless they trade for another vet or young QB before that happens.

If we do have to wait another year we better move heaven and earth for the top guy.

Remember when we drafted a tackle in the worst tackle draft in years? This draft scares me at 10. If we can get haskins or jones there im cool.

[Poet]

Remember when we drafted a tackle in the worst tackle draft in years? This draft scares me at 10. If we can get haskins or jones there im cool.

Take the legit talent and role with it. if the legit talent fills the need, drop your pant, sweet talk them, and get the talent!

[aberdien]

I did not read your post because I am lazy and I don't believe an argument is needed because the reality is obvious.

Haskins or Lock or we waste another year of talent with which we should be making playoff runs.

[Poet]

I did not read your post because I am lazy and I don't believe an argument is needed because the reality is obvious.

Haskins or Lock or we waste another year of talent with which we should be making playoff runs.

:tsk:.

[aberdien]

:tsk:.

Gut instinct > Logic and reason

[Poet]

Gut instinct > Logic and reason

The point was to be persuasive and try to convince people in a one shot post.

This place is but a factory of sadness and my soul is the god damned market!

[aberdien]

The point was to be persuasive and try to convince people in a one shot post.

This place is but a factory of sadness and my soul is the god damned market!

I didn't need to be convinced.

Anybody who needs convincing isn't worth convincing.

We ride with Haskins!

[Shazam!]

Bro you are causing lots of the sadness.

[Poet]

I didn't need to be convinced.

Anybody who needs convincing isn't worth convincing.

We ride with Haskins!

#hoping4Haskins

[Poet]

Bro you are causing lots of the sadness.

Quality posts that have truths people don't want, thy name is King87.

It'll pass. Coach Fangs is dope.

[chazoe60]

I would love Haskins. My fear is that he's going to blow up the pre draft workouts and it's going to take a truckload to move up to pick 1-2 or 3 to get him and it will turn into a bidding war between us, the Giants and the Jags.

[aberdien]

I would love Haskins. My fear is that he's going to blow up the pre draft workouts and it's going to take a truckload to move up to pick 1-2 or 3 to get him and it will turn into a bidding war between us, the Giants and the Jags.

You gotta think the Giants are all in on him anyway considering he's from the Jersey area. Sad face.

I am less excited about Lock but would absolutely take him.

[Poet]

I would love Haskins. My fear is that he's going to blow up the pre draft workouts and it's going to take a truckload to move up to pick 1-2 or 3 to get him and it will turn into a bidding war between us, the Giants and the Jags.

We missed on Watson. And Watson was a Chazoe guy. If Haskins is a Chazoe guy, then Elway needs to know so we can do the right thing.

[chazoe60]

We missed on Watson. And Watson was a Chazoe guy. If Haskins is a Chazoe guy, then Elway needs to know so we can do the right thing.
My dream that year was that we lured Dabo from Clemson and drafted DeShaun. Would have been beautiful. Now I want Haskins to go along with the Godfather.

[Poet]

My dream that year was that we lured Dabo from Clemson and drafted DeShaun. Would have been beautiful. Now I want Haskins to go along with the Godfather.

This is God's will.

[Northman]

We missed on Watson. And Watson was a Chazoe guy. If Haskins is a Chazoe guy, then Elway needs to know so we can do the right thing.

Watson should have beaten Luck. But never the less, Haskins is not the answer. I told you, trust in North, Kingy no listen to bad info's. Lol

[Poet]

Watson should have beaten Luck. But never the less, Haskins is not the answer. I told you, trust in North, Kingy no listen to bad info's. Lol

Watson's line was acutally bad. Eh. He's young.

If we draft Haskins, he will go on to be a great pro and you will love him!

[UnderArmour]

Murray, Haskins, and Lock are all worth the 10 pick. Trading up to 5 is something to consider, but it might not be worth the picks to trade up. One will definitely slip, as I expect the Dolphins or Jags to flip a 2nd for Flacco.

[Poet]

UA, you down with the smallish Murray, or the somewhat erratic Lock?

I find them to be all interesting prospects.

[SmilinAssasSin27]

Skins are the ones to worry about. Insane owner and almost literally no QB on the roster.

[aberdien]

Murray gon' die.

[chazoe60]

I don't see Murray working out in the NFL. I mean, I get smallish guys can work (Brees/Mayfield/Wilson) but good Lord, Murray is a muchkin. There has to be a limit.

[UnderArmour]

UA, you down with the smallish Murray, or the somewhat erratic Lock?

I find them to be all interesting prospects.

Murray is my favorite of the 3. Guy is a straight-up winner who will do whatever it takes to get the victory, but at the same time isn't as reckless as Mariota. Russell Wilson is honestly the best comparison.

Lock has the most play under his belt, and I don't really think he's as erratic as Daniel Jones. Much safer, much more pro-ready prospect. Lock was projected as a first rounder if he came out last year, but chose to go back to school.

[DenBronx]

We need to wait for Trevor Lawrence. Not changing my mind either. I am ok with a couple more sucky seasons to get that guy. We need a stud rookie QB that will be around 15-20 years. This is Peyton Manning II folks.

[DenBronx]

Watson should have beaten Luck. But never the less, Haskins is not the answer. I told you, trust in North, Kingy no listen to bad info's. Lol


Watson beat Luck? Lmfaoooooo

[UnderArmour]

We need to wait for Trevor Lawrence. Not changing my mind either. I am ok with a couple more sucky seasons to get that guy. We need a stud rookie QB that will be around 15-20 years. This is Peyton Manning II folks.

Speak for yourself. Super Bowl or bust every year for me. I don't want 7-9 or 8-8 ever, much less 1-15. No thanks.

And to your other point, Watson was without Fuller and DT, so it's really hard to get an offense going with all that coverage on Hopkins. It is what it is. Both Watson and Luck are franchise QBs. Texans might want to get some blockers for Watson though.

[SmilinAssasSin27]

I love Tua every bit as much as Lawrence. Fix the D this year. Develop the WRs. Give the farm for Tua in 2020.

[chazoe60]

I love Tua every bit as much as Lawrence. Fix the D this year. Develop the WRs. Give the farm for Tua in 2020.

Lawrence>>>>>>>>Tua and it's not close.

[Northman]

Lawrence is the real deal, no one is even in his league right now including the Herberts and Haskins.

[SmilinAssasSin27]

I thought Tua was the best QB in the country when he was a backup in 17. His garbage time passes were pinpoint accurate. Tua is a bad man. Obviously Lawrence is great. But doesn't mean Tua is a slouch. He'll go 1 overall next year if he comes out

[DenBronx]

Lawrence is the real deal, no one is even in his league right now including the Herberts and Haskins.


At 19...he scares me. When his body fully develops I’ll shit my pants if he goes to the Chargers or raiders.

[chazoe60]

I thought Tua was the best QB in the country when he was a backup in 17. His garbage time passes were pinpoint accurate. Tua is a bad man. Obviously Lawrence is great. But doesn't mean Tua is a slouch. He'll go 1 overall next year if he comes out

Not saying Tua isn't good, but he isn't even close to Lawrence.

[SmilinAssasSin27]

Not saying Tua isn't good, but he isn't even close to Lawrence.

Gap is much closer than you want it to be. Tua was all the rave 12 months ago. Now it's Lawrence because of that game. Tua has been doing the same thing...with freshmen receivers. Tua and Lawrence should dominate the league for 10-15 years.

[Northman]

Im still not totally sold on Tua but we shall see. I think he is more a product of the system in Bama (Much like Haskins from OSU) but time will tell.

[HORSEPOWER 56]

If Lawrence does turn out to be the real deal, what makes anyone think we’ll have a shot at him? Maybe if VJ was still the coach and Elway traded away all the talent. There’s no way we get #1 overall and that’s what it will take. Does anyone actually think the team with the #1 overall pick will give up Lawrence, or even Tua in 2020? That’s like thinking there was anything anyone could’ve done to get Luck. Indy was gonna draft him #1 overall and that was that. We will be a better team with Fangio than we ever were with VJ. It’s science.

[chazoe60]

If Lawrence does turn out to be the real deal, what makes anyone think we’ll have a shot at him? Maybe if VJ was still the coach and Elway traded away all the talent. There’s no way we get #1 overall and that’s what it will take. Does anyone actually think the team with the #1 overall pick will give up Lawrence, or even Tua in 2020? That’s like thinking there was anything anyone could’ve done to get Luck. Indy was gonna draft him #1 overall and that was that.

In my dream scenario we trade for somebody's 2021 1st round pick and that team absolutely tanks.

[Northman]

If Lawrence does turn out to be the real deal, what makes anyone think we’ll have a shot at him? Maybe if VJ was still the coach and Elway traded away all the talent. There’s no way we get #1 overall and that’s what it will take. Does anyone actually think the team with the #1 overall pick will give up Lawrence, or even Tua in 2020? That’s like thinking there was anything anyone could’ve done to get Luck. Indy was gonna draft him #1 overall and that was that. We will be a better team with Fangio than we ever were with VJ. It’s science.

Oh shut up dude....

We have Keenum, all is well for at least a couple of years. Lol

[SmilinAssasSin27]

Im still not totally sold on Tua but we shall see. I think he is more a product of the system in Bama (Much like Haskins from OSU) but time will tell.

I love his game. Your point on the system is an interesting one. Bama has historically used game managers at QB and then Hurts who is a runner. OSU has always had dual threat...which Haskins is not. Both Tua and Haskins are atypical for their respective franchises. That said, they also come from teams with a history of success. Then again...doesn't Lawrence fit the Clemson lineage of quality QB play as well?

[Northman]

I love his game. Your point on the system is an interesting one. Bama has historically used game managers at QB and then Hurts who is a runner. OSU has always had dual threat...which Haskins is not. Both Tua and Haskins are atypical for their respective franchises. That said, they also come from teams with a history of success. Then again...doesn't Lawrence fit the Clemson lineage of quality QB play as well?

Yes and no. Clemson has had a lot of success since Dabo has been there but most of their QB's are a lot like the hybrids we see. Trevor though doesnt fit that mold to me and like someone else mentioned he is more of a student of the game. Haskins and Tua may very well break the mold from the usual suspects from those respective schools but for me i would be very hesitant in taking them because of that history. I just dont trust it. Im not totally sold on Watson in Houston but i feel a lot differently about Lawrence in how they play. If Tua or Haskins can play like Russell Wilson it will work, but if they are more like the Cam Newtons, Michael Vicks, etc i dont think it will have very much success long term and i want to avoid that.

[SmilinAssasSin27]

Yes and no. Clemson has had a lot of success since Dabo has been there but most of their QB's are a lot like the hybrids we see. Trevor though doesnt fit that mold to me and like someone else mentioned he is more of a student of the game. Haskins and Tua may very well break the mold from the usual suspects from those respective schools but for me i would be very hesitant in taking them because of that history. I just dont trust it. Im not totally sold on Watson in Houston but i feel a lot differently about Lawrence in how they play. If Tua or Haskins can play like Russell Wilson it will work, but if they are more like the Cam Newtons, Michael Vicks, etc i dont think it will have very much success long term and i want to avoid that.

IMO Tua and Haskins are passers who happen to be athletic. More SteveYoung/Luck than Cam/Vick. That is the difference to me. Hell...Haskins doesn't even run as well as Luck. Straight passer thru and thru. I don't say the following to sound to judgey but I'm sure it will come off that way. I think some folks, not everybody, see Haskins' skin color and assume he is a runner. He actually looks kinda awkward when he has to scramble. He can do it, but it's not his game.

[Hawgdriver]

Gap is much closer than you want it to be. Tua was all the rave 12 months ago. Now it's Lawrence because of that game. Tua has been doing the same thing...with freshmen receivers. Tua and Lawrence should dominate the league for 10-15 years.

Tua has been poor against quality defense. He shows an inability to read and react to dynamic coverage. No thanks.

[Poet]

Tua has been poor against quality defense. He shows an inability to read and react to dynamic coverage. No thanks.

I thought he had been pretty good against good D's,while looking okayish against Georgia and bad against Clemson?

[Poet]

Tua has been poor against quality defense. He shows an inability to read and react to dynamic coverage. No thanks.

I thought he had been pretty good against good D's,while looking okayish against Georgia and bad against Clemson?

[BeefStew25]

If we drafted Tua I would declare nuclear war on his island nation

[chazoe60]

If we drafted Tua I would declare nuclear war on his island nation

Whoa, I happen to love that island nation.

[Hawgdriver]

I thought he had been pretty good against good D's,while looking okayish against Georgia and bad against Clemson?

I'm actually just parroting what Joel Klatt said. But he's pretty damned sharp, so I have no problem with it.

The gist of his argument is this: there are 4 games where Tua has faced an elite defense. The Georgia game we all saw and were impressed when he came in for Hurts after the half (iirc). The other three I haven't personally seen. Klatt was a college QB and is specific with his critiques, generally speaking.

What soured him on Tua is the lack of that trait where a QB is able to overcome a wrinkle or unexpected coverage and mentally assay the situation in order to optimize yardage...he's just not quick enough mentally, not an NFL caliber guy. That's his take on Tua.

[Hawgdriver]

I thought he had been pretty good against good D's,while looking okayish against Georgia and bad against Clemson?

I'm actually just parroting what Joel Klatt said. But he's pretty damned sharp, so I have no problem with it.

The gist of his argument is this: there are 4 games where Tua has faced an elite defense. The Georgia game we all saw and were impressed when he came in for Hurts after the half (iirc). The other three I haven't personally seen. Klatt was a college QB and is specific with his critiques, generally speaking.

What soured him on Tua is the lack of that trait where a QB is able to overcome a wrinkle or unexpected coverage and mentally assay the situation in order to optimize yardage...he's just not quick enough mentally, not an NFL caliber guy. That's his take on Tua.

[Hawgdriver]

I wonder if there is a vBulletin update that will fix this issue.

[SmilinAssasSin27]

I'm actually just parroting what Joel Klatt said. But he's pretty damned sharp, so I have no problem with it.

The gist of his argument is this: there are 4 games where Tua has faced an elite defense. The Georgia game we all saw and were impressed when he came in for Hurts after the half (iirc). The other three I haven't personally seen. Klatt was a college QB and is specific with his critiques, generally speaking.

What soured him on Tua is the lack of that trait where a QB is able to overcome a wrinkle or unexpected coverage and mentally assay the situation in order to optimize yardage...he's just not quick enough mentally, not an NFL caliber guy. That's his take on Tua.

Georgia this year is the only team he sucked against

[SmilinAssasSin27]

I'm actually just parroting what Joel Klatt said. But he's pretty damned sharp, so I have no problem with it.

The gist of his argument is this: there are 4 games where Tua has faced an elite defense. The Georgia game we all saw and were impressed when he came in for Hurts after the half (iirc). The other three I haven't personally seen. Klatt was a college QB and is specific with his critiques, generally speaking.

What soured him on Tua is the lack of that trait where a QB is able to overcome a wrinkle or unexpected coverage and mentally assay the situation in order to optimize yardage...he's just not quick enough mentally, not an NFL caliber guy. That's his take on Tua.

Georgia this year is the only team he sucked against. He actually played well vs Clemson while running for his life and was very effective vs LSU and Auburn. The NCG was interesting. The pic6 was simply a great play by the defender who came off his man when the WR appeared to misread the scheme amd didn't change his route. The other was on Tua.

I'm sure Tua did get confused by some schemes here and there. But much like TL...he's a freshman experience wise. Last year he played garbage time v backups and 1 half on the NCG. A lot of times, QBs need to see things and experience schemes in order to understand them. Ala Dobbs.

The other thing to consider in the games vs elite defenses is an all Freshman WR corps. Talented as heck...but young and inexperienced as well.

I've seen plenty of Tua. I'd take him all day.

[Cugel]

Yes and no. Clemson has had a lot of success since Dabo has been there but most of their QB's are a lot like the hybrids we see. Trevor though doesnt fit that mold to me and like someone else mentioned he is more of a student of the game. Haskins and Tua may very well break the mold from the usual suspects from those respective schools but for me i would be very hesitant in taking them because of that history. I just dont trust it. Im not totally sold on Watson in Houston but i feel a lot differently about Lawrence in how they play. If Tua or Haskins can play like Russell Wilson it will work, but if they are more like the Cam Newtons, Michael Vicks, etc i dont think it will have very much success long term and i want to avoid that.

Cam is really in a class by himself. He's bigger than a lot of LBs at 6'5" 250, and most QBs are not. His troubles stem from his shoulder injury. But stories about him are a lot like stories about how "washed up" Andrew Luck was with his shoulder injury. Not so much as it turns out. The problem for Newton was trying to play on the injury.

Mahomes for instance is 6'3" 230. Tua is even smaller at 6'1" 215.

So, for a lot of these Qbs they will have to learn to become pocket passing QBs a lot sooner than later, because they are built a lot like CBs, not LBs and they can't take the sustained pounding. The Tebow or Cam sized Qbs are not so common.

I think that is going to be a big difference for NFL teams if this whole spread option style keeps growing.

Frankly, if the NFL owners weren't so short sighted and cheap they'd establish and PAY FOR a minor league football system in the US so college QBs could develop for a year or two and then you'd see more Qbs coming into the league like Kurt Warner - who first learned to play QB in NFL Europe and when he came to the Rams was NFL ready as a result. The same thing could be done with a lot of these young QBs.

[SmilinAssasSin27]

13545

[SmilinAssasSin27]

Guessing fins won't be trading up...

[chazoe60]

Watching a bunch of Haskins stuff today and yesterday, I really hope we try to get this kid.