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View Full Version : Some Are Blaming the Broncos' "Decline in Talent" on Elway's Drafting. But Is This True?



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12-31-2017, 10:24 PM
First of all, I don't subscribe to the "lack of talent" hypothesis. I think there is plenty
of talent on the Broncos. Much of the talent has come from trades and FAs. But how
much has Elway whiffed in the draft? Here are his "hits" year-by-year:

2011 - Of course, the highlight was the selection of Von Miller, probably still the best
player on the squad. But we also got Orlando Franklin and Julius Thomas, and then
picked up Virgil Green in the 7th round. A fair haul.

2012 - A power draft. Whiffed on Ronnie Hillman, Omar Bolden, and Phillip Blake
(just had to have a namesake for a bust, didn't I?). Have to throw Osweiler in there,
too . . . 2nd rounders should work out. But that was the year we nabbed Derek Wolfe,
Malik Jackson, and Danny Trevathan. Couldn't keep the latter two, but that doesn't
mean they weren't great selections.

2013 - Disaster. Have to admit it. Kayvon Webster became a pretty good player for a
third rounder. Sylvester Williams hung on for a while but never justified his first-round
selection. Of course, there was the tragedy involving Tavarres King. But it was a very
forgettable draft year.

2014 - A really good year. Roby, Latimer (who has really come on of late), Paradis
(our Iron Man who enforces the middle of the OL), and Corey Nelson in the 7th.
Missed on Schofield and Barrow. But the former four are still with us.

2015- Not a good year. Shane Ray and possibly Jeff Heuerman, who has come on some
as of late. That's it. If Heuerman doesn't make it, it will be a year to rival 2013.

2016 - Hit it out of the park. Well, the jury's out on Paxton Lynch (maybe permanently
out). But after him, we got Gotsis, Simmons, Booker, McGovern, Janovich, Parks, and
Riley Dixon. All are still with us as of this final game, and all have impacted the squad
. . . well, except for Lynch so far. Would like to have a draft like this every year.

2017 - Another possible mother lode. Bolles, Walker, Carlos Henderson, Langley, Butt,
Mckenzie, De'Angelo Henderson, and Kelly. Too early to tell with some of them, of
course, and Carlos and Butt have been injured all season, of course. But all who have
played have flashed at times. A hopeful group, IMO.

I just don't think Elway has done that bad of a job, overall. I haven't done it, but if one
were to do some research and compare his drafting with others in the league, I'm not
so sure he would come off that badly. And let's not forget his near genius with FAs,
which was big factor in our playoff years and Super Bowls.

Ground Control
01-01-2018, 12:33 AM
He's done fairly well over all but regarding QBs, not so much. He has one hit out of the park at with FA at QB. And only barely...because he formed a damn fine defense after the best offense the NFL has maybe ever seen ('13) didn't do it...because, defense (and Manning choked on himself)!

Manning only gets the nod because he was enough of a vet and old man to get over himself, and get out of the way. He sucked that year but I seriously doubt anyone else could have made that SB team work like he did, and play the perfect balance of leader and 'get the f out of the way' guy that he did. 'Get the f out of the way' does also equal leader in this equation.

So far, Elway has proven a loser at drafting QB talent. Although I have high hopes for Kelly, he is an easy win at Mr Irrelevant. QBs are the draft that matters when viewing his success but if he gets over himself and keeps winning else-wise...and lands another great FA QB, then his failures in that area can be forgiven and forgotten.

Al Wilson 4 Mayor
01-01-2018, 12:39 AM
You said Butt

Ground Control
01-01-2018, 01:00 AM
You said Butt

Butt, butt. Chicken Butt. Which butt/ but is true?

Tbolt
01-01-2018, 01:19 AM
This feels like an excuse thread ignoring ALL the guys who were overdrafted. Just because they have gotten ‘some use’ out of these duds does not these good drafts.

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01-01-2018, 01:26 AM
This feels like an excuse thread ignoring ALL the guys who were overdrafted. Just because they have gotten ‘some use’ out of these duds does not these good drafts.
In other words, you would rather ignore those players who succeeded, right?

Ah but, did you miss my comments on the 2013 and 2015 drafts? Or did you ignore them?

Ground Control
01-01-2018, 01:50 AM
This feels like an excuse thread ignoring ALL the guys who were overdrafted. Just because they have gotten ‘some use’ out of these duds does not these good drafts.

More than use. His only true failure is at QB, consistently. Miller, JT, VG is solid and a fantastic blocker (could be better used by a team that knows how to use TEs). Wolfe, MJ. Roby, Latimer, Paradis. Ray. Gotsis, Simmons, Booker, McGovern, Janovich, Parks, and
Riley Dixon. Bolles is experiencing all the growing pains that is proper in a rookie but is solid.

I don't mention his QB drafts, per my previous comment on them being his area of failure. And we all know how painful it is to lament over his area of failure.

Otherwise, 'overdrafted'?

Joel
01-01-2018, 02:54 AM
First of all, I don't subscribe to the "lack of talent" hypothesis. I think there is plenty
of talent on the Broncos. Much of the talent has come from trades and FAs. But how
much has Elway whiffed in the draft? Here are his "hits" year-by-year:

2011 - Of course, the highlight was the selection of Von Miller, probably still the best
player on the squad. But we also got Orlando Franklin and Julius Thomas
... who were and are garbage, even though Franklin was a mid-2nd


, and then picked up Virgil Green in the 7th round.
That's actually a typical draft for Elway: His early picks are almost invariably awful unless his options are "anyone but Cam Newton" and many of his late round picks and UDFAs are hidden gems. I'm still unsure whether that's a net positive or negative; if your 1st and 2nd round picks are always 4th and 5th round talents but your 5th and 6th round picks are always 2nd and 3rd round talent, are ahead of or behind the game...? :confused:


2012 - A power draft. Whiffed on Ronnie Hillman, Omar Bolden, and Phillip Blake
(just had to have a namesake for a bust, didn't I?). Have to throw Osweiler in there,
too . . . 2nd rounders should work out. But that was the year we nabbed Derek Wolfe,
Malik Jackson, and Danny Trevathan. Couldn't keep the latter two, but that doesn't
mean they weren't great selections.
Again typical: Wolfe was a 2nd rounder, but Osweiler's our only 2012 pick still PLAYING—except for our final two picks, who are still quality starters.


2013 - Disaster. Have to admit it. Kayvon Webster became a pretty good player for a
third rounder. Sylvester Williams hung on for a while but never justified his first-round
selection. Of course, there was the tragedy involving Tavarres King. But it was a very
forgettable draft year.
Elway drafted a 3rd rounder who performs better than his 1st rounder? The devil you say.


2014 - A really good year. Roby, Latimer (who has really come on of late), Paradis
(our Iron Man who enforces the middle of the OL), and Corey Nelson in the 7th.
Missed on Schofield and Barrow. But the former four are still with us.
Latimer's a 2nd rounder only beginning to occasionally show up in his final contract year: That's a bust. Roby's legit and rare mid-1st round success for Elway, but that "really good years" sole other success is getting a reliable but underpowered C in the 6th.


2015- Not a good year. Shane Ray and possibly Jeff Heuerman, who has come on some
as of late. That's it. If Heuerman doesn't make it, it will be a year to rival 2013.
Ray was simply wasted value for a team that already had not one but TWO All Pro likely HoFers at the position. He's not bad, but neither is he 1st round quality, and wouldn't have been worth OUR 1st round pick even if he were. You can't go BPA with a playoff team, because the "best players" are gone long before your pick, and even if one drops as Ray did, you probably already have too many good players to use him, as Denver did.


2016 - Hit it out of the park. Well, the jury's out on Paxton Lynch (maybe permanently
out). But after him, we got Gotsis, Simmons, Booker, McGovern, Janovich, Parks, and
Riley Dixon. All are still with us as of this final game, and all have impacted the squad
. . . well, except for Lynch so far. Would like to have a draft like this every year.

2017 - Another possible mother lode. Bolles, Walker, Carlos Henderson, Langley, Butt,
Mckenzie, De'Angelo Henderson, and Kelly. Too early to tell with some of them, of
course, and Carlos and Butt have been injured all season, of course. But all who have
played have flashed at times. A hopeful group, IMO.

I just don't think Elway has done that bad of a job, overall. I haven't done it, but if one
were to do some research and compare his drafting with others in the league, I'm not
so sure he would come off that badly. And let's not forget his near genius with FAs,
which was big factor in our playoff years and Super Bowls.
EVERY draft class is a "possible mother lode" AND possible bust in its second year: It's too soon to tell either way, especially with the later round guys who usually need time to develop mentally, physically or both, when they don't spend their rookie season nursing injuries that ended their final collegiate season. All that said, Elways relatively brief draft history suggests his 2016 and 2017 class will be similar to the rest: The early picks will underperform and the later picks overperform.

Just don't let him draft any more QBs nor RBs: Kubiak's made a career out of it and Elway's consistently awful at it, so let each play to his strength.

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01-01-2018, 04:28 AM
... who were and are garbage, even though Franklin was a mid-2nd

Garbage? Franklin was a good RT while he played for the Broncos. And Thomas has continued
to be considered a threat, even after leaving us. He was a very good 4th round selection, and
Green was a very good 7th round selection.


[quote]Again typical: Wolfe was a 2nd rounder, but Osweiler's our only 2012 pick still PLAYING—except for our final two picks, who are still quality starters.

So you're saying if they're not playing for US, they weren't good choices, right? Last I heard,
they both were doing pretty good jobs for their respective teams. The issue isn't whether they
stayed. It is the quality of the pick. Jackson and Trevathan were both superb choices. That's
not even debatable.



Latimer's a 2nd rounder only beginning to occasionally show up in his final contract year: That's a bust. Roby's legit and rare mid-1st round success for Elway, but that "really good years" sole other success is getting a reliable but underpowered C in the 6th.

Disagree. Latimer is not a bust. He is the #3 receiver now, but look who he's behind. He became
a dangerous receiver in the latter half of the season. And he was regarded as the best on STs
all season. If he doesn't break out next season, he's a bust. I'm betting he breaks out. Therefore,
I don't yet consider him a bust.

And why do you downgrade Paradis? He is widely considered one of the better centers in the
league. Underpowered? Because he's "only" 300 lbs? Nalen weight 285. Center is one position
where the size is not quite as critical. He is very technically sound and has an extremely high
football I.Q. A terrific pick for where he was taken. And you didn't mention Corey Nelson, a
very good 7th round pick.



Ray was simply wasted value for a team that already had not one but TWO All Pro likely HoFers at the position. He's not bad, but neither is he 1st round quality, and wouldn't have been worth OUR 1st round pick even if he were. You can't go BPA with a playoff team, because the "best players" are gone long before your pick, and even if one drops as Ray did, you probably already have too many good players to use him, as Denver did.

Disagree again. You might not have heard, but Ray played his position with one hand this season.
A pass rusher needs both hands. Ray was probably the best one-handed rusher I could imagine.
You are jumping the gun on your assessment of him. Let's see what he can do next year with two
hands. Meanwhile, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. So, as I implied, 2015 is still in the air,
depending on how he and Heuerman perform next year. It will still not be a terrific year, even if
both break out, but at least it will beat 2013, which, admittedly, shouldn't be hard.



EVERY draft class is a "possible mother lode" AND possible bust in its second year: It's too soon to tell either way, especially with the later round guys who usually need time to develop mentally, physically or both, when they don't spend their rookie season nursing injuries that ended their final collegiate season. All that said, Elways relatively brief draft history suggests his 2016 and 2017 class will be similar to the rest: The early picks will underperform and the later picks overperform.

I'm not going to get into what history suggests, even though I believe I've shown that his
history is not as bad as some of you claim. The 2017 class has shown quality this year,
and that's what I'm going by. That's why I used the term "possible." When that term is
used, there's not much left to debate.


Just don't let him draft any more QBs nor RBs: Kubiak's made a career out of it and Elway's consistently awful at it, so let each play to his strength.

How many QBs has Elway drafted in the upper rounds? Two, right? How is that a sufficient
number to call his performance "consistently"? You might consider Lynch and Osweiler
garbage, but I don't. Especially Lynch -- he has played in 5½ whole games. That is not
enough to assess how good a QB is going to be. If that were the case, both Manning and
Elway would have been dumped, and neither in the argument for G.O.A.T. as they are
today. Go back and look at their first respective years. I was thoroughly denigrated earlier
tonight for having a sensible approach to it, but that is the sensible approach. But jumping
the gun and shallow analyses sometimes seem the norm here.

Ground Control
01-01-2018, 05:20 AM
"You might consider Lynch and Osweiler
garbage, but I don't. Especially Lynch -- he has played in 5½ whole games. That is not
enough to assess how good a QB is going to be. If that were the case, both Manning and
Elway would have been dumped, and neither in the argument for G.O.A.T. as they are
today. Go back and look at their first respective years."

Neither of them had to deal with Elway as he is today, and had to suffer the denigration of being entirely questioned at a base level. And yeah, we know what Osweiller has to offer. We have seen years of Osweiller and know what he has to give. I loved him but he's an unsteady backup at best. That's probably not a bad 2nd round spend but there should be no confusion about him NOT being what Elway hoped he would be. And Lynch; He may have been better than a far stretch of a hope for a backup...but he was drafted by Elway. And got screwed by Elway. He was not developed the way he should have been...by Elway. We will never know what Lynch could be under a team owned by Elway. We may get to see Lynch as more than Elway positioned him to be but it will not be as a Bronco. Basically, yeah. Elway is fair at other picks but to reach and hope that his QB picks are more than they are is just....reaching. I totally reached myself but...woke up. Osweiller and Lynch could both have been better than they are but we will never know. We get to live in the world where Elway makes all decisions and after taking chances with QBs like Lynch, he refuses to pay the dues needed to develop him. He was open to giving the team to Osweiller but he maybe made a good choice on being a scrooge, since Osweiller has proven to be an unreliable backup at best. Certainly not worth a 50-60 mil contract.

I totally agree with you that when comparing these two with Manning and Elway, in their first year, we might find a false equivalency in their potential. I have used this argument in the past. It's not without value but is just that, false equivalency. It can only be equivalent if they become the equivalent of either of those players. And they will most definitely not become the equivalent of either Manning or Elway. I could be wrong but I am most assuredly not wrong about that happening with the Broncos. The Broncos have a history of success and although Elway's projections have helped that history along, his draft picks at QB have crippled the team, horribly. The win-loss record stands for itself. Thus, hoping that because Elway and Manning...and even Brady sucked in their first years, does not mean that Osweiller or Lynch will suddenly, magically gain the attributes that made those men legends just because we hope it will happen. I did that with Siemian. And Lynch. And Osweiller.

Didn't happen. They are not Elway, Brady, or Manning. If they could have been if Elway wasn't a ***** and gave them a better opportunity to become such is not an argument, because Elway is in charge and they/ he have failed.

Elway sucks at drafting/ developing QBs. At least, so far as his record states. We have no choice but to be OK with this, since we are only observers. He's good at making deals though, so we have hope to gain a ringer FA while we wait for Elway to become not-Elway and develop the next franchise QB. Or, we can always live with FA mercenaries that use Denver as a stepping ground, and not a home. That's OK too. I hope I'm wrong though...

"I was thoroughly denigrated earlier tonight for having a sensible approach to it, but that is the sensible approach. But jumping
the gun and shallow analyses sometimes seem the norm here"

I'm sorry for your experiences. I've experienced the same and devolved into a responsive barbarian until the club made people offer more here. Just keep smashing and you'll find conversation. I wish there could be a place where there this wasn't the case but....not so much.

Broncoknight30
01-01-2018, 05:24 AM
Not that a pro bowl means jack shit, other than the fact that the Broncos are one of two franchises that have not drafted pro bowler since 2012.

Hard to get past drafting Osweiler in the second round over Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins.

Cannot tell which is worse. That, or him drafting Montee Ball over Le'Veon Bell.

Ground Control
01-01-2018, 05:42 AM
Not that a pro bowl means jack shit, other than the fact that the Broncos are one of two franchises that have not drafted pro bowler since 2012.

Hard to get past drafting Osweiler in the second round over Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins.

Cannot tell which is worse. That, or him drafting Montee Ball over Le'Veon Bell.

There is also that. The other teams that have benefited from Elway's failure of vision. He has sucked at picking unproven QBs in the draft. He and we must acknowledge that. If not, we're ******, yo. It's not like he's a fool for it. QBs are a complete gamble, unless a team is willing to mold the team around the god-damned player they place it's future in. Elway has to be willing to give up control and place his future in the next Bronco QB.

All in. Period.

Broncoknight30
01-01-2018, 05:45 AM
"You might consider Lynch and Osweiler
garbage, but I don't. Especially Lynch -- he has played in 5½ whole games. That is not
enough to assess how good a QB is going to be. If that were the case, both Manning and
Elway would have been dumped, and neither in the argument for G.O.A.T. as they are
today. Go back and look at their first respective years."

Neither of them had to deal with Elway as he is today, and had to suffer the denigration of being entirely questioned at a base level. And yeah, we know what Osweiller has to offer. We have seen years of Osweiller and know what he has to give. I loved him but he's an unsteady backup at best. That's probably not a bad 2nd round spend but there should be no confusion about him NOT being what Elway hoped he would be. And Lynch; He may have been better than a far stretch of a hope for a backup...but he was drafted by Elway. And got screwed by Elway. He was not developed the way he should have been...by Elway. We will never know what Lynch could be under a team owned by Elway. We may get to see Lynch as more than Elway positioned him to be but it will not be as a Bronco. Basically, yeah. Elway is fair at other picks but to reach and hope that his QB picks are more than they are is just....reaching. I totally reached myself but...woke up. Osweiller and Lynch could both have been better than they are but we will never know. We get to live in the world where Elway makes all decisions and after taking chances with QBs like Lynch, he refuses to pay the dues needed to develop him. He was open to giving the team to Osweiller but he maybe made a good choice on being a scrooge, since Osweiller has proven to be an unreliable backup at best. Certainly not worth a 50-60 mil contract.

I totally agree with you that when comparing these two with Manning and Elway, in their first year, we might find a false equivalency in their potential. I have used this argument in the past. It's not without value but is just that, false equivalency. It can only be equivalent if they become the equivalent of either of those players. And they will most definitely not become the equivalent of either Manning or Elway. I could be wrong but I am most assuredly not wrong about that happening with the Broncos. The Broncos have a history of success and although Elway's projections have helped that history along, his draft picks at QB have crippled the team, horribly. The win-loss record stands for itself. Thus, hoping that because Elway and Manning...and even Brady sucked in their first years, does not mean that Osweiller or Lynch will suddenly, magically gain the attributes that made those men legends just because we hope it will happen. I did that with Siemian. And Lynch. And Osweiller.

Didn't happen. They are not Elway, Brady, or Manning. If they could have been if Elway wasn't a ***** and gave them a better opportunity to become such is not an argument, because Elway is in charge and they/ he have failed.

Elway sucks at drafting/ developing QBs. At least, so far as his record states. We have no choice but to be OK with this, since we are only observers. He's good at making deals though, so we have hope to gain a ringer FA while we wait for Elway to become not-Elway and develop the next franchise QB. Or, we can always live with FA mercenaries that use Denver as a stepping ground, and not a home. That's OK too. I hope I'm wrong though...

"I was thoroughly denigrated earlier tonight for having a sensible approach to it, but that is the sensible approach. But jumping
the gun and shallow analyses sometimes seem the norm here"

I'm sorry for your experiences. I've experienced the same and devolved into a responsive barbarian until the club made people offer more here. Just keep smashing and you'll find conversation. I wish there could be a place where there this wasn't the case but....not so much.

The one word that we cannot get past in regards to Lynch is......NOTHING. We know NOTHING, other than the fact that he has shown really NOTHING in two seasons. Now, he may have only played in a handful of REGULAR SEASON games, but that does not mean he has not been through TWO training camps and TWO preaseaons. In that time, he has shown NOTHING that even suggests he is SOMETHING.

Ok, we have not seen much out of him, but that is not the concern. Not with me anyway. If he has shown promise of any kind then I would say lets give him a chance. However, he has not shown any real promise. Him connecting on a handful of passes here or there is really not something to build on.

Here is the situation that is rather dire and we are in the spiral of Brownsville right now. Here it is. They draft Paxton Lynch and then they change the coaching staff. He is already behind the 8 ball being that he does not have the mental aspect of the pro game. Then, he goes through another play book, another training camp and the new CBA does not allow Lynch to work with players etc. Not like they use to.

So, now it seems he will be going through yet another coaching staff. Hopefully. I doubt another staff will come in here wanting to work with Lynch. Meaning, a new coaching staff typically has their own vision and QB is rather vital. Does Lynch come across as a guy that can learn a whole new play book with whole new concepts? No, he does not.

He has shown NOTHING and that is the main problem as I see it in regards to Lynch.

Ground Control
01-01-2018, 05:51 AM
The one word that we cannot get past in regards to Lynch is......NOTHING. We know NOTHING, other than the fact that he is shown really NOTHING in two seasons. Now, he may have only played in a handful of REGULAR SEASON games, but that does not mean he has not been through TWO training camps and TWO preaseaons. In that time, he has shown NOTHING that even suggests he is SOMETHING.

Ok, we have not seen much out of him, but that is not the concern. Not with me anyway. If he has shown promise of any kind then I would say lets give him a chance. However, he has not shown any real promise. Him connecting on a handful of passes here or there is really not something to build on.

Here is the situation that is rather dire and we are in the spiral of Brownsville right now. Here it is. They draft Paxton Lynch and then they change the coaching staff. He is already behind the 8 ball being that he does not have the mental aspect of the pro game. Then, he goes through another play book, another training camp and the new CBA does not allow Lynch to work with players etc. Not like they use to.

So, now it seems he will be going through yet another coaching staff. Hopefully. I doubt another staff will come in here wanting to work with Lynch. Meaning, a new coaching staff typically has their own vision and QB is rather vital. Does Lynch come across as a guy that can learn a whole new play book with whole new concepts? No, he does not.

He has shown NOTHING and that is the main problem as I see it in regards to Lynch.

Maybe not nothing, since we have been able to form an opinion that he offers nothing. No ability to adapt, or even grasp, even the system he is in, let alone any new system he's presented with. Raw talent in the realm of school-level optics is basically nothing. So, by showing nothing, maybe Lynch has shown us everything we need to see?

Otherwise, well said.

Joel
01-01-2018, 06:41 AM
... who were and are garbage, even though Franklin was a mid-2nd

Garbage? Franklin was a good RT while he played for the Broncos.
He was such a great RT we moved him to G despite having NOTHING ELSE at RT, then cut him when he was just as bad at G.


And Thomas has continued
to be considered a threat, even after leaving us.
Thomas continued to be MIA even after leaving us; it's "so :censored: easy" playing with Manning fresh off his record shattering year, but even then it helps to suit up at least half the games. Also helps to block if you're a starting TE rather than a third string WR.

Green was a very good 7th round selection.
No disagreement: A better TE than Thomas, and a good example of Elway partially redeeming his generally awful drafts by getting the talent late he should find early.


—except for our final two picks, who are still quality starters.
So you're saying if they're not playing for US, they weren't good choices, right? Last I heard,
they both were doing pretty good jobs for their respective teams. The issue isn't whether they
stayed. It is the quality of the pick. Jackson and Trevathan were both superb choices. That's
not even debatable.
Not saying starters suck unless playing for us; remaining starters elsewhere simply because we can't afford them proves they don't suck, and I'm not debating that: I'm saying we should be able to find quality starters before the 5th and 6th round.


Disagree. Latimer is not a bust. He is the #3 receiver now, but look who he's behind. He became
a dangerous receiver in the latter half of the season. And he was regarded as the best on STs
all season. If he doesn't break out next season, he's a bust. I'm betting he breaks out. Therefore,
I don't yet consider him a bust.
He's a fourth-year 2nd-rounder: If he's not "broken out" yet, he's a bust. So much so that if 2018 IS his breakout season, it'll probably be with another team, and not because we can't afford his vet minimum contract, but because we can and do get as much or more from the likes of and Bennie Fowler Jordan Taylor for far less cash.


And why do you downgrade Paradis? He is widely considered one of the better centers in the
league. Underpowered? Because he's "only" 300 lbs? Nalen weight 285. Center is one position
where the size is not quite as critical. He is very technically sound and has an extremely high
football I.Q. A terrific pick for where he was taken. And you didn't mention Corey Nelson, a
very good 7th round pick.
Paradis isn't underpowered because of his size, but because DTs routinely push him around unless we give him help from a double team. His agility's heaven sent as long as DTs, DEs and LBs can run circles around clumsy slow Gs like Man-Ram, Garcia, Schofield etc. But he is to our run blocking what Franklin et al. are to our pass protection. And I didn't mention Corey Nelson because he's not worth mentioning; plays well for a 7th rounder, but that's a big qualifier.


Disagree again. You might not have heard, but Ray played his position with one hand this season.
A pass rusher needs both hands. Ray was probably the best one-handed rusher I could imagine.
You are jumping the gun on your assessment of him. Let's see what he can do next year with two
hands. Meanwhile, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. So, as I implied, 2015 is still in the air,
depending on how he and Heuerman perform next year. It will still not be a terrific year, even if
both break out, but at least it will beat 2013, which, admittedly, shouldn't be hard.
It's great Ray had a decent season one-handed; it's not so great yet another 1st round pick needed three seasons to make the starting lineup and may not stay there, just as Sly and Latimer (though the latter was a 2nd rounder) before him. Roby ended his rookie game with a game-saving swatdown of a from a likely HoFer to a definite HoFer: Ray couldn't even get on the field his first two seasons unless Ware or Von were tired/hurt. That's a more an indictment of Elways position priorities than of Rays ability to play his position, but whether a guy's riding pine because we don't need or can't use him, he's not helping us win.

Meanwhile, where are Sambrailo, Garcia, Doss and all our other 2015 picks? Going nowhere fast three years running. When the best players you get out of a draft are a part-time first rounder and a guy rarely healthy enough to play, you blew your draft.


I'm not going to get into what history suggests, even though I believe I've shown that his
history is not as bad as some of you claim. The 2017 class has shown quality this year,
and that's what I'm going by. That's why I used the term "possible." When that term is
used, there's not much left to debate.
True, but a convenience that's prompted many to dub qualifiers of all stripes "weasel words." Yet the saying is "history doesn't repeat, but does rhyme," and there's every reason to believe, and no reason to doubt, Elways 2016 and 2017 drafts will eventually prove comparable to his others. Y'know, the ones that prompted several posters to joke we should trade down for a bunch of 5th rounders, since we never draft starters till then anyway.


How many QBs has Elway drafted in the upper rounds? Two, right? How is that a sufficient
number to call his performance "consistently"? You might consider Lynch and Osweiler
garbage, but I don't. Especially Lynch -- he has played in 5½ whole games. That is not
enough to assess how good a QB is going to be. If that were the case, both Manning and
Elway would have been dumped, and neither in the argument for G.O.A.T. as they are
today. Go back and look at their first respective years. I was thoroughly denigrated earlier
tonight for having a sensible approach to it, but that is the sensible approach. But jumping
the gun and shallow analyses sometimes seem the norm here.
We're not just talking QBs though: It was hard to miss with his pick of "anyone not named Cam Newton," but our 1st-3rd rounders since are Wolfe, Oz, Hillman, Sly, Ball, Webster, Roby, Latimer, Schofield, Ray, Sambrailo and Heuerman. That's 2½ starters out of nine high picks, a poor return.

Broncoknight30
01-01-2018, 06:43 AM
Maybe not nothing, since we have been able to form an opinion that he offers nothing. No ability to adapt, or even grasp, even the system he is in, let alone any new system he's presented with. Raw talent in the realm of school-level optics is basically nothing. So, by showing nothing, maybe Lynch has shown us everything we need to see?

Otherwise, well said.

Btw, the dire situation I eluded to is about what this team is doing. Elway, is in this place where it seems the Broncos are chasing their own tail. I think we are all thinking they are going to be drafting yet another first round QB this year. Let me say I think the QB class this year sucks. Yes, sucks. I don't any of them are all of that. Rosen is probably the best of all of them, but his passion for the game is questionable.

Baker Mayfield, everyone is going to make the Russell Wilson comparison. Well, a few things. One, Wilson ran basically a 4.4 in the 40. Now, for a QB that should not mean much. However, running speed for SHORT QBs is actually essential. Reported that Mayfield runs a 4.8. Wilson had some of the best agility numbers ever at the combine. Plus, he broke all sorts of passing records in the Big Ten at WISCONSIN. A school that is NOT known for passing, in a conference that actually plays defense. Unlike the Big XII. Can you name the last Big XII QB that made a great career in the NFL?

Sam Darnold.....not impressed with him at all. Seems to have a great PR machine behind him. He basically blows.

What does all of that mean? It means the Broncos need to put together an OL. That is probably harder than finding a franchise QB. I do believe that a solid OL makes average QBs good and good QBs great. However, I fear this team will draft one of those QBs and the line won't be addressed.

Rinse and repeat I fear.

Ground Control
01-01-2018, 07:27 AM
Btw, the dire situation I eluded to is about what this team is doing. Elway, is in this place where it seems the Broncos are chasing their own tail. I think we are all thinking they are going to be drafting yet another first round QB this year. Let me say I think the QB class this year sucks. Yes, sucks. I don't any of them are all of that. Rosen is probably the best of all of them, but his passion for the game is questionable.

Baker Mayfield, everyone is going to make the Russell Wilson comparison. Well, a few things. One, Wilson ran basically a 4.4 in the 40. Now, for a QB that should not mean much. However, running speed for SHORT QBs is actually essential. Reported that Mayfield runs a 4.8. Wilson had some of the best agility numbers ever at the combine. Plus, he broke all sorts of passing records in the Big Ten at WISCONSIN. A school that is NOT known for passing, in a conference that actually plays defense. Unlike the Big XII. Can you name the last Big XII QB that made a great career in the NFL?

Sam Darnold.....not impressed with him at all. Seems to have a great PR machine behind him. He basically blows.

What does all of that mean? It means the Broncos need to put together an OL. That is probably harder than finding a franchise QB. I do believe that a solid OL makes average QBs good and good QBs great. However, I fear this team will draft one of those QBs and the line won't be addressed.

Rinse and repeat I fear.

Can't say how much I agree! Every QB that has gotten hype reminds me of the failures of our QBs this year, when their faults are examined. Thus, FA.

BroncoWave
01-01-2018, 07:32 AM
Not that a pro bowl means jack shit, other than the fact that the Broncos are one of two franchises that have not drafted pro bowler since 2012.

Hard to get past drafting Osweiler in the second round over Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins.

Cannot tell which is worse. That, or him drafting Montee Ball over Le'Veon Bell.

I don't like to play the "he drafted player x over player y game" All 32 teams passed on Wilson and Cousins multiple times. You can't pin that on Elway.

Having said that, he HAS to hit on a QB this year if that's who we pick in the top 5. If he picks another bust this year, I don't see how we could ever trust his judgement in drafting QBs.

Broncoknight30
01-01-2018, 07:49 AM
I don't like to play the "he drafted player x over player y game" All 32 teams passed on Wilson and Cousins multiple times. You can't pin that on Elway.

Having said that, he HAS to hit on a QB this year if that's who we pick in the top 5. If he picks another bust this year, I don't see how we could ever trust his judgement in drafting QBs.

That is how drafts are judged. It makes me more sick when we judge a draft 5 minutes after the draft. I do that too, so bear with me here. The true ways to JUDGE A DRAFT is years after.

Now, it is totally fair to judge a draft and determine whether it is good or bad.

As far as the point of ALL 32 teams, that is a little absurd. It was the Broncos that drafted a QB. That is the position they drafted and it is perfectly fair to criticize when this franchise (Elway) had Osweiler higher than Russell Wilson or Kirk Cousins. I mean if we cannot judge that, then there is no point in ever judging anything about a draft or ever having any discussion about it.

There is really no way to get around the fact that he failed miserably with that pick and it is a rather crucial screw up. Sorry, but it is what it is.

Please, let me know what is a fair way to judge drafts, if we cannot point out stuff 5 years later? That goes for Montee Ball over Le'Veon Bell as well. That also goes for this franchise being one of two franchises not drafting one pro bowler since 2012.

BroncoWave
01-01-2018, 08:49 AM
That is how drafts are judged. It makes me more sick when we judge a draft 5 minutes after the draft. I do that too, so bear with me here. The true ways to JUDGE A DRAFT is years after.

Now, it is totally fair to judge a draft and determine whether it is good or bad.

As far as the point of ALL 32 teams, that is a little absurd. It was the Broncos that drafted a QB. That is the position they drafted and it is perfectly fair to criticize when this franchise (Elway) had Osweiler higher than Russell Wilson or Kirk Cousins. I mean if we cannot judge that, then there is no point in ever judging anything about a draft or ever having any discussion about it.

There is really no way to get around the fact that he failed miserably with that pick and it is a rather crucial screw up. Sorry, but it is what it is.

Please, let me know what is a fair way to judge drafts, if we cannot point out stuff 5 years later? That goes for Montee Ball over Le'Veon Bell as well. That also goes for this franchise being one of two franchises not drafting one pro bowler since 2012.

I just think it's kinda silly to blame one GM for not taking Cousins or Wilson in the early round when literally no team had them rated that high. It would have been a reach of a pick given the info we knew at the time and we would have been lucky for them to pan out.

The "he passed up on player x for player y" argument really only works in the first round when every team hasn't had a chance to pass over a guy yet. For example, drafting Cutler over Ngata in 06 was a legitimately awful pick.

When a mid round player like Cousins or Wilson pans out, that's not something anyone saw coming. If anyone saw it coming, they would have been first rounders. If Elway is a bad GM for passing on them, then every GM in the league is bad.

chazoe60
01-01-2018, 08:53 AM
Elway sucks at drafting QBs and OL, that's a fact. Too bad that NFL teams need a good QB and OL to succeed.

BroncoWave
01-01-2018, 08:59 AM
Elway sucks at drafting QBs and OL, that's a fact. Too bad that NFL teams need a good QB and OL to succeed.

I agree he sucks at drafting QBs. It's totally fair to criticize the two draft picks he made at QB. I just think it's a bit silly to single him out among the 32 GMs who all passed on Wilson and Cousins multiple times.

Besides, who knows if Wilson or Cousins even turn out the same here? For all we know, neither one develops the same way having to sit behind Manning or having to play behind our o-line.

chazoe60
01-01-2018, 09:06 AM
Bronccoknight's whole draft schtick is terrible. It's all based on hindsight and it's awful. If only we would have shut down all air traffic on September 10th, 2001 instead of waiting til after the planes hit the buildings. Stupid government could have saved so many lives.

BroncoWave
01-01-2018, 09:09 AM
Bronccoknight's whole draft schtick is terrible. It's all based on hindsight and it's awful. If only we would have shut down all air traffic on September 10th, 2001 instead of waiting til after the planes hit the buildings. Stupid government could have saved so many lives.

If only that idiot Shanahan had picked Brady in 2000 we'd be set right now!

Broncoknight30
01-01-2018, 09:17 AM
Bronccoknight's whole draft schtick is terrible. It's all based on hindsight and it's awful. If only we would have shut down all air traffic on September 10th, 2001 instead of waiting til after the planes hit the buildings. Stupid government could have saved so many lives.

So we should not judge any drafts, especially ones conducted by the great John Elway. Makes a lot of sense

BroncoWave
01-01-2018, 09:19 AM
So we should not judge any drafts, especially ones conducted by the great John Elway. Makes a lot of sense

He literally just said Elway sucks at drafting QBs and OL. Try reading.

It's one thing to say his draft picks have been bad. That's a totally legit criticism. It's another thing to complain that he didn't draft a guy rounds earlier than any other team did. Sometimes players who no one thought would be good become good.

Shazam!
01-01-2018, 09:25 AM
We all knew it was going to be tough post Manning, but to have so many mistakes, glaring blow out losses, uninspiring defeats, weak preparation, lack of adjustments... idk how he is retained.

Broncoknight30
01-01-2018, 10:00 AM
He literally just said Elway sucks at drafting QBs and OL. Try reading.

It's one thing to say his draft picks have been bad. That's a totally legit criticism. It's another thing to complain that he didn't draft a guy rounds earlier than any other team did. Sometimes players who no one thought would be good become good.

Actually criticising that he had Osweiler higher than Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins is a legit criticism. Just saying he sucks at drafting QBs is a general statement. It is basically saying the same thing I am.

Got it. Lets not say who they COULD HAVE drafted, lets just leave it at that he sucks at drafting QBs.

No really. Makes sense.

Broncoknight30
01-01-2018, 10:05 AM
Bronccoknight's whole draft schtick is terrible. It's all based on hindsight and it's awful. If only we would have shut down all air traffic on September 10th, 2001 instead of waiting til after the planes hit the buildings. Stupid government could have saved so many lives.

All draft criticisms are based on hindsight.

You all wake and bake this morning?

Broncoknight30
01-01-2018, 10:06 AM
I agree he sucks at drafting QBs. It's totally fair to criticize the two draft picks he made at QB. I just think it's a bit silly to single him out among the 32 GMs who all passed on Wilson and Cousins multiple times.

Besides, who knows if Wilson or Cousins even turn out the same here? For all we know, neither one develops the same way having to sit behind Manning or having to play behind our o-line.

Again, the BRONCOS DRAFTED A QB. I see you are not understanding this.

Northman
01-01-2018, 10:08 AM
Actually criticising that he had Osweiler higher than Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins is a legit criticism.

You do realize that it wasnt just Elway that had Oz higher than Wilson and Cousins right? The draft rankings has nothing to do with the HC's, its all pre-determined by the scouts, etc. Now, you can argue that John didnt wait until the 3rd round to take a guy like Wilson or Cousins but it doesnt change the fact that going into the draft that Oz was rated as a higher prospect than the other two. If it wasnt John it would of been someone else taking Oz in the second round because that is where Oz was projected to go.

Broncoknight30
01-01-2018, 10:16 AM
You do realize that it wasnt just Elway that had Oz higher than Wilson and Cousins right? The draft rankings has nothing to do with the HC's, its all pre-determined by the scouts, etc. Now, you can argue that John didnt wait until the 3rd round to take a guy like Wilson or Cousins but it doesnt change the fact that going into the draft that Oz was rated as a higher prospect than the other two. If it wasnt John it would of been someone else taking Oz in the second round because that is where Oz was projected to go.

Elway is the GM and it stops with him. Granted all of what you say is true. All criticisms of drafts is hindsight. It is perfectly legit to LOOK BACK and say the scouting team and everyone involved screwed up by having wilson and cousins ranked lower than Osweiler. Unfair, maybe.

Then again we all agree they suck at drafting QBs. So, making that statement is the end of it? Not pointing out who they could have had at that pick?

Also, the POSITION DRAFTED is key here too. Pointing out 32 GMs is dumb. It was the Broncos drafting a QB.

Like when the Broncos scouting team had Montee Ball ranked higher than Bell. Again, it is a position comparison.

BroncoWave
01-01-2018, 10:34 AM
Do you think Shanny was dumb for passing up on Brady in 2000?

Broncoknight30
01-01-2018, 10:36 AM
Do you think Shanny was dumb for passing up on Brady in 2000?

Elway sucks at drafting QBs.

He ranked Osweiler over Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins.

Northman
01-01-2018, 10:36 AM
Elway is the GM and it stops with him. Granted all of what you say is true. All criticisms of drafts is hindsight. It is perfectly legit to LOOK BACK and say the scouting team and everyone involved screwed up by having wilson and cousins ranked lower than Osweiler. Unfair, maybe.

Then again we all agree they suck at drafting QBs. So, making that statement is the end of it? Not pointing out who they could have had at that pick?

Also, the POSITION DRAFTED is key here too. Pointing out 32 GMs is dumb. It was the Broncos drafting a QB.

Like when the Broncos scouting team had Montee Ball ranked higher than Bell. Again, it is a position comparison.


I dont have a problem with pointing out that the Broncos need to do a better job of scouting/researching/etc when it comes to the draft. But then this has been a pretty big problem for Denver long before John even took over. The flipside to that is the draft being a crapshoot to begin with. But the other thing is (and why i think Chazoe and Wave are pointing to it) is at the time that we drafted Oz no one knew how those players would turn out not even the Seahawks. The Hawks had planned to go with Flynn when they took Wilson and Washington had thought that RGIII was going to be their QB going forward. Both teams just got lucky that Wilson and Cousins ended up out performing the initial starters. So should Seattle and Wash be criticized for taking RGIII and giving Flynn a massive paycheck instead of just settling for Wilson and Cousins? Do you see what im getting at? Its easy for us now to point back and say man, we really missed out on those players but sometimes teams just get lucky. Denver got lucky with guys like Rod Smith, Shannon Sharpe, and Terrell Davis. New England got lucky with a guy like Brady. Its just a bunch of guesswork when going into the draft and you pray and hope you get it right.

I pointed to this the other day in another thread but i remember looking at the completion percentage/accuracy stats when Wilson came out and he was rated #1 in that category with RGIII right behind him at #2. I dont remember where Cousins fell on that list. But if i were to apply that going into this draft than the top 3 QB prospects with the best completion percentages would be Mayfield #1, Jake Browning #3, and Luke Falk #6. Does this really mean though that they will turn out to be the best of the class? Even with Browning and Falk slated to go much later in the draft? Not really. But because of what happened with Wilson and the outcome if i were a GM i might take a lot of that in consideration even though it wont guarantee me anything. The best that Denver fans can hope for is that the organization does a better job going forward. If the Broncos cant right the ship in the next 2-3 years than Elway's job security most certainly will be in jeopardy.

BroncoWave
01-01-2018, 10:38 AM
Elway sucks at drafting QBs.

He ranked Osweiler over Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins.

Nice deflection.

BroncoWave
01-01-2018, 10:41 AM
I dont have a problem with pointing out that the Broncos need to do a better job of scouting/researching/etc when it comes to the draft. But then this has been a pretty big problem for Denver long before John even took over. The flipside to that is the draft being a crapshoot to begin with. But the other thing is (and why i think Chazoe and Wave are pointing to it) is at the time that we drafted Oz no one knew how those players would turn out not even the Seahawks. The Hawks had planned to go with Flynn when they took Wilson and Washington had thought that RGIII was going to be their QB going forward. Both teams just got lucky that Wilson and Cousins ended up out performing the initial starters. So should Seattle and Wash be criticized for taking RGIII and giving Flynn a massive paycheck instead of just settling for Wilson and Cousins? Do you see what im getting at? Its easy for us now to point back and say man, we really missed out on those players but sometimes teams just get lucky. Denver got lucky with guys like Rod Smith, Shannon Sharpe, and Terrell Davis. New England got lucky with a guy like Brady. Its just a bunch of guesswork when going into the draft and you pray and hope you get it right.

I pointed to this the other day in another thread but i remember looking at the completion percentage/accuracy stats when Wilson came out and he was rated #1 in that category with RGIII right behind him at #2. I dont remember where Cousins fell on that list. But if i were to apply that going into this draft than the top 3 QB prospects with the best completion percentages would be Mayfield #1, Jake Browning #3, and Luke Falk #6. Does this really mean though that they will turn out to be the best of the class? Even with Browning and Falk slated to go much later in the draft? Not really. But because of what happened with Wilson and the outcome if i were a GM i might take a lot of that in consideration even though it wont guarantee me anything. The best that Denver fans can hope for is that the organization does a better job going forward. If the Broncos cant right the ship in the next 2-3 years than Elway's job security most certainly will be in jeopardy.

Great point. Even the teams that drafted Cousins and Wilson only drafted them to be backups. Literally no one thought either guy would be a successful starter so soon, if ever.

Broncoknight30
01-01-2018, 10:42 AM
I dont have a problem with pointing out that the Broncos need to do a better job of scouting/researching/etc when it comes to the draft. But then this has been a pretty big problem for Denver long before John even took over. The flipside to that is the draft being a crapshoot to begin with. But the other thing is (and why i think Chazoe and Wave are pointing to it) is at the time that we drafted Oz no one knew how those players would turn out not even the Seahawks. The Hawks had planned to go with Flynn when they took Wilson and Washington had thought that RGIII was going to be their QB going forward. Both teams just got lucky that Wilson and Cousins ended up out performing the initial starters. So should Seattle and Wash be criticized for taking RGIII and giving Flynn a massive paycheck instead of just settling for Wilson and Cousins? Do you see what im getting at? Its easy for us now to point back and say man, we really missed out on those players but sometimes teams just get lucky. Denver got lucky with guys like Rod Smith, Shannon Sharpe, and Terrell Davis. New England got lucky with a guy like Brady. Its just a bunch of guesswork when going into the draft and you pray and hope you get it right.

I pointed to this the other day in another thread but i remember looking at the completion percentage/accuracy stats when Wilson came out and he was rated #1 in that category with RGIII right behind him at #2. I dont remember where Cousins fell on that list. But if i were to apply that going into this draft than the top 3 QB prospects with the best completion percentages would be Mayfield #1, Jake Browning #3, and Luke Falk #6. Does this really mean though that they will turn out to be the best of the class? Even with Browning and Falk slated to go much later in the draft? Not really. But because of what happened with Wilson and the outcome if i were a GM i might take a lot of that in consideration even though it wont guarantee me anything. The best that Denver fans can hope for is that the organization does a better job going forward. If the Broncos cant right the ship in the next 2-3 years than Elway's job security most certainly will be in jeopardy.

There have been big mistakes imo among scouts in getting enamored with QBs stats....in the Big XII.

That whole conference has been a defensive joke for the better part of 20 years.

All of the QBs drafted high from that conference have been ultimate busts.

Sure "seems like" the Big 10 QBs adjust best to the NFL. Who knows why.

One of a few reasons I am turned off by Mayfield

Broncoknight30
01-01-2018, 10:46 AM
Nice deflection.

Shanahan drafted a QB in 2000? Who? You missed that point and you are the one deflecting.

The funny thing is you agree he sucks at drafting QBs and somehow offended or confused by me pointing the QBs he could have selected.

Please, someone bring up the hindsight point again. That was funny.

Northman
01-01-2018, 10:51 AM
There have been big mistakes imo among scouts in getting enamored with QBs stats....in the Big XII.

That whole conference has been a defensive joke for the better part of 20 years.

All of the QBs drafted high from that conference have been ultimate busts.

Sure "seems like" the Big 10 QBs adjust best to the NFL. Who knows why.

One of a few reasons I am turned off by Mayfield


And you may be right, Mayfield may end up being a bust. But if im going by a QB who has the best accuracy it would give me pause because in the end i want a guy like Drew Brees who can hit just about anything he throws at. But, RGIII was rated a very accurate passer and eventually fell out of the league (even though i think injuries hindered him more than play). Its a risk any way you slice it. I was very high on Osweiler coming into the draft that year and even predicted Denver would take him. I thought Oz had the right build to be the next Big Ben but i turned out i was wrong, like big time. So even if it wasnt John as GM and it was me we would of still ended up with Brock. Lmao

BroncoWave
01-01-2018, 10:53 AM
Shanahan drafted a QB in 2000? Who? You missed that point and you are the one deflecting.

The funny thing is you agree he sucks at drafting QBs and somehow offended or confused by me pointing the QBs he could have selected.

Please, someone bring up the hindsight point again. That was funny.

You know, Elway could have picked another position instead of QB, right?. Because that pick was a QB doesn't mean his only other option was another QB.

And just because we didn't pick a QB in 2000 doesn't mean that Brady wouldn't have been a better pick than some of the other positions we drafted.

A much fairer criticism would be to look at impact players at other positions picked around the time we picked Oz/Lynch.

Again, criticizing him because he didn't overdraft a QB by multiple rounds who exceeded everyone's expectations is stupid.

I gave this example earlier, and you ignored it, but Cutler/Ngata is a much more fair example of criticizing taking player x over player y. Ngata was picked right after Cutler, was at more of a position of need than QB for us at the time, and most people were calling for us to pick him before the draft, taking out the hindsight element. That is an example of fair criticism of a draft pick.

Broncoknight30
01-01-2018, 10:59 AM
You know, Elway could have picked another position instead of QB, right?. Because that pick was a QB doesn't mean his only other option was another QB.

And just because we didn't pick a QB in 2000 doesn't mean that Brady wouldn't have been a better pick than some of the other positions we drafted.

A much fairer criticism would be to look at impact players at other positions picked around the time we picked Oz/Lynch.

Again, criticizing him because he didn't overdraft a QB by multiple rounds who exceeded everyone's expectations is stupid.

I gave this example earlier, and you ignored it, but Cutler/Ngata is a much more fair example of criticizing taking player x over player y. Ngata was picked right after Cutler, was at more of a position of need than QB for us at the time, and most people were calling for us to pick him before the draft, taking out the hindsight element. That is an example of fair criticism of a draft pick.

All of that is true too. There is always criticisms. Apparently we Can use hindsight, since hindsight is ALL WE HAVE.

I really have no idea the issues you actually have with my post about Wilson and Kirk Cousins. You are actually agreeing with it.

What, you bringing up the Cutler Ngata thing is that different? I was crushed by Broncos fans on the ESPN message boards back then for suggesting that exact same thing.

When it comes to position comparisons, that is also another way to judge a draft. This is done all of the time, and judging a draft 3 to 5 years later is perfectly legit.

Still have no idea what is wrong with pointing out the QBs he could have selected. How exactly is that weird to you guys?

MasterShake
01-01-2018, 11:01 AM
I think Elway's draft mistakes have been the QB's, but that applies to nearly every team. Otherwise I can see about as many "hits" as misses as most other NFL franchises. Paxton was a reactionary reach based on the Osweiler debacle, so I will give him a bit of a pass on that. He has to nail it this year though to at least give us a serviceable QB.

BroncoWave
01-01-2018, 11:02 AM
All of that is true too. There is always criticisms. Apparently we Can use hindsight, since hindsight is ALL WE HAVE.

I really have idea the issues you actually have with my post about Wilson and Kirk Cousins. You are actually agreeing with it.

What, you bringing up the Cutler Ngata thing is that different? I was crushed by Broncos fans on the ESPN message boards back then for suggesting that exact same thing.

When it comes to position comparisons, that is also another way to judge a draft. This is done all of the time, and judging a draft 3 to 5 years later is perfectly legit.

Still have no idea what is wrong with pointing out the QBs he could have selected. How exactly is that weird to you guys?

The difference is that people could see BEFORE the draft that taking Cutler over Ngata was a bad move. Literally NO ONE would have picked Cousins or Wilson over Oz that year. No one. So in that sense, it's kinda lame to say now what an awful move it was. How could Elway have possibly have known? Sometimes players just completely outplay anything that could have been projected about them coming out of college.

Broncoknight30
01-01-2018, 11:20 AM
The difference is that people could see BEFORE the draft that taking Cutler over Ngata was a bad move. Literally NO ONE would have picked Cousins or Wilson over Oz that year. No one. So in that sense, it's kinda lame to say now what an awful move it was. How could Elway have possibly have known? Sometimes players just completely outplay anything that could have been projected about them coming out of college.

I thought we agreed he sucks at drafting QBs. If so, how so? Could have sworn we were all in agreement with that.

BroncoWave
01-01-2018, 11:22 AM
I thought we agreed he sucks at drafting QBs. If so, how so? Could have sworn we were all in agreement with that.

I will accept this backpedal as admission of your folly in criticism him for not picking Wilson or Cousins high.

Broncoknight30
01-01-2018, 11:31 AM
I will accept this backpedal as admission of your folly in criticism him for not picking Wilson or Cousins high.

No, we all agreed that he has sucked at drafting QBs. Me pointing out the QBs is not backpedaling.

You are all now saying he does not suck, since everyone said Osweiler was a better prospect.

So, which is it with you? Does he suck at drafting QBs or not? If so, how so?

BroncoWave
01-01-2018, 11:38 AM
No, we all agreed that he has sucked at drafting QBs. Me pointing out the QBs is not backpedaling.

You are all now saying he does not suck, since everyone said Osweiler was a better prospect.

So, which is it with you? Does he suck at drafting QBs or not? If so, how so?

Both things can be true that he sucks at drafting QBs, an that he was not wrong for not spending a high pick on Cousins or Wilson.

atwater27
01-01-2018, 11:55 AM
If we don’t make major changes in our scouting department, expect years of mediocrity going forward. We suck at drafting.

Denver Native (Carol)
01-01-2018, 12:17 PM
If we don’t make major changes in our scouting department, expect years of mediocrity going forward. We suck at drafting.


Kubiak and his wife Rhonda kept their Denver home. He was in and out of Denver headquarters this year to attend player evaluation meetings with general manager John Elway and player personnel director Matt Russell. His kids are here. Two sons even work for the Broncos.

In his new role, Kubiak will be more involved in player evaluations on the pro side, in particular for the free agent period in March and then in helping the Broncos for the 2018 draft in which the team will have the No. 5 overall pick.

AND


Bringing in Kubiak shows Elway is holding himself accountable in what has been a difficult Broncos’ season.

http://www.9news.com/sports/nfl/denver-broncos/mike-klis/bronco-notes-kubiak-to-move-back-to-denver-with-new-role/503891872

BroncoWave
01-01-2018, 12:37 PM
Elway's best skill is in attracting free agents. He needs to stick to that and let someone else handle more of the drafting.

BroncoJoe
01-01-2018, 12:38 PM
Elway's best skill is in attracting free agents. He needs to stick to that and let someone else handle more of the drafting.

I don't know what Kubiak's record is re: the draft, but his new role would suggest that he'll have a ton of say.

topscribe
01-01-2018, 01:50 PM
Joel, I love you, but you can really be a negative nellie. I'm not going through more of this
cutting and splicing. I hate that approach. Sorry. But I do have a couple comments.



It's great Ray had a decent season one-handed; it's not so great yet another 1st round pick needed three seasons to make the starting lineup and may not stay there

So it took Ray three years to attain the starting job. Tell me, who was ahead of him? Was he
going to usurp Von Miller? How about DeMarcus Ware? Would ANYBODY in the league start
over him? You need to be realistic. Of course, when you say Ray may not remain a starter,
you're referring to Shaq. If the league knew what is known today about Shaq, would he still
be a UFA? No, he would be a high draft choice. So that possibility is attributable to Shaq, not
a negative for Ray.



We're not just talking QBs though: It was hard to miss with his pick of "anyone not named Cam Newton," but our 1st-3rd rounders since are Wolfe, Oz, Hillman, Sly, Ball, Webster, Roby, Latimer, Schofield, Ray, Sambrailo and Heuerman. That's 2½ starters out of nine high picks, a poor return.
We disagree on the number of "busts" among his high picks. You count 2½ successes, I count 4: Wolfe,
Webster, Roby, and Ray. And 2 who still have the possibility of making it: Latimer and Heuerman. It
would be nice to say that all his high choices made it, but I don't think that's happened for anyone, has
it? And high choices alone are not enough to denigrate a GM. Elway more than made up for it with his
mid- and lower choices and UFAs. He did well enough to win five straight West Division championships
and go 1-1 in the Super Bowl.

I'll admit, however, I soured on him a bit this morning, when I learned he is keeping VJ. The problem
with the Broncos this year was not talent. It was a disorganized, disheveled, undisciplined mess. And
VJ was its architect.

Cugel
01-01-2018, 03:32 PM
First of all, I don't subscribe to the "lack of talent" hypothesis. I think there is plenty
of talent on the Broncos. Much of the talent has come from trades and FAs. But how
much has Elway whiffed in the draft? Here are his "hits" year-by-year:

2011 - Of course, the highlight was the selection of Von Miller, probably still the best
player on the squad. But we also got Orlando Franklin and Julius Thomas, and then
picked up Virgil Green in the 7th round. A fair haul.

2012 - A power draft. Whiffed on Ronnie Hillman, Omar Bolden, and Phillip Blake
(just had to have a namesake for a bust, didn't I?). Have to throw Osweiler in there,
too . . . 2nd rounders should work out. But that was the year we nabbed Derek Wolfe,
Malik Jackson, and Danny Trevathan. Couldn't keep the latter two, but that doesn't
mean they weren't great selections.

2013 - Disaster. Have to admit it. Kayvon Webster became a pretty good player for a
third rounder. Sylvester Williams hung on for a while but never justified his first-round
selection. Of course, there was the tragedy involving Tavarres King. But it was a very
forgettable draft year.

2014 - A really good year. Roby, Latimer (who has really come on of late), Paradis
(our Iron Man who enforces the middle of the OL), and Corey Nelson in the 7th.
Missed on Schofield and Barrow. But the former four are still with us.

2015- Not a good year. Shane Ray and possibly Jeff Heuerman, who has come on some
as of late. That's it. If Heuerman doesn't make it, it will be a year to rival 2013.

2016 - Hit it out of the park. Well, the jury's out on Paxton Lynch (maybe permanently
out). But after him, we got Gotsis, Simmons, Booker, McGovern, Janovich, Parks, and
Riley Dixon. All are still with us as of this final game, and all have impacted the squad
. . . well, except for Lynch so far. Would like to have a draft like this every year.

2017 - Another possible mother lode. Bolles, Walker, Carlos Henderson, Langley, Butt,
Mckenzie, De'Angelo Henderson, and Kelly. Too early to tell with some of them, of
course, and Carlos and Butt have been injured all season, of course. But all who have
played have flashed at times. A hopeful group, IMO.

I just don't think Elway has done that bad of a job, overall. I haven't done it, but if one
were to do some research and compare his drafting with others in the league, I'm not
so sure he would come off that badly. And let's not forget his near genius with FAs,
which was big factor in our playoff years and Super Bowls.

This is just a wildly over optimistic review. You're pimping up a bunch of marginal players like Cody Latimer. A few catches change nothing. He's a bust for a 2nd round pick. Jeff Heurmann was promoted as their TE of the future for the last 2 years and he's done nothing.

Of course there's a bad lack of drafted talent on this roster. What offensive pro-bowlers have they drafted?

Since the SB they lost Peyton and Ware, two HOFs, along with Malik Jackson, Danny Trevathan, and TJ Ward. None of that talent was replaced. And most of their star players were FAs not drafted: Peyton, Aqib, Ware, TJ, Darien Stewart, Emanuel Sanders.

So, Elway has been good at finding reasonably priced FAs, but in drafting? Terrible. Sylvester Williams was not a success if you don't re-sign him and let him walk at the end of his contract. Cody Latimer is also unlikely to be retained, making him another 2nd round bust. If he does stay, it's because they cut Sanders to save cap money and promoted Latimer because they don't have anybody better and don't want to go out in FA and spend more money to bring another WR here when they have other more urgent needs.

Schofield's already gone along with Sambrailo, Carlos Henderson sat out the season along with Jake Butt, and Isiah McKenzie keeps turning the ball over and making stupid plays. He's worthless.

It's not good drafting if they just stick around for a few years and then disappear like Orlando Franklin. It's not good drafting if your 2nd and 3rd rounders sit on the bench or simply suck their way out of the league like 2nd rounder Montee Ball.

Cugel
01-01-2018, 03:42 PM
Quote Originally Posted by BroncoWave View Post
I will accept this backpedal as admission of your folly in criticism him for not picking Wilson or Cousins high.

Was it "Folly" not to take Wilson, when nobody drafted him till the third round? Well, then every NFL team committed the same "folly." Twice. As for Kirk Cousins, not even the Redskins thought he would develop into the QB he became. That's why he's not under a long term contract in DC.

Cugel
01-01-2018, 03:48 PM
I'll admit, however, I soured on him a bit this morning, when I learned he is keeping VJ. The problem with the Broncos this year was not talent. It was a disorganized, disheveled, undisciplined mess. And VJ was its architect.

NO! Of course this is just more nonsense. It was a PURE LACK OF TALENT. This team has declined in offensive talent every year since 2013 and has replaced virtually none of that talent. That year they had a TE who was a threat in the red zone in Julius Thomas. He left and wasn't replaced. Jeff Heurmann has been a bust with zero impact on the field. Virgil Green has been invisible for whatever reason.

Knowshon caught 60 passes out of the backfield. No current Broncos RB is a pass-catching threat in the red zone.

Wes Welker was an expert slot WR. He left and that production was never replaced. An occasional catch by Sunshine, or Cody Latimer means nothing. They are backups at best.

The OL has gotten worse every year since 2012. It was supposed to be better this year, but Elway decided to get a cheap RT instead of spending $12m a year on someone like Reilly Reiff. He spent $6m on Menelik Watson, who was injured over 1/2 his NFL career. And of course he hit IR this year too, after sucking for most of the season.

And this says nothing about the failures to find a QB.

Was it Vance Joseph's decision to roll into the 2017 season with Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch as the starter and Osweiler as their only backup? Those QBs were all ELWAY creations. Vance Joseph inherited them all. He was stuck with trying to make something out of a bunch of stiffs, because Elway couldn't find anybody better.

Well, it was never a viable plan to try and make the playoffs with those loser QBs. But, whose plan was it? Elway's all the way! He insisted that they "develop" Paxton Lynch. He insisted that Osweiler would make a quality backup. He failed to go out in FA and get an acceptable QB starter. Even a backup quality starter would have been better than any of the QBs on the roster.

topscribe
01-01-2018, 04:28 PM
NO! Of course this is just more nonsense. It was a PURE LACK OF TALENT. This team has declined in offensive talent every year since 2013 and has replaced virtually none of that talent. That year they had a TE who was a threat in the red zone in Julius Thomas. He left and wasn't replaced. Jeff Heurmann has been a bust with zero impact on the field. Virgil Green has been invisible for whatever reason.

Knowshon caught 60 passes out of the backfield. No current Broncos RB is a pass-catching threat in the red zone.

Wes Welker was an expert slot WR. He left and that production was never replaced. An occasional catch by Sunshine, or Cody Latimer means nothing. They are backups at best.

The OL has gotten worse every year since 2012. It was supposed to be better this year, but Elway decided to get a cheap RT instead of spending $12m a year on someone like Reilly Reiff. He spent $6m on Menelik Watson, who was injured over 1/2 his NFL career. And of course he hit IR this year too, after sucking for most of the season.

And this says nothing about the failures to find a QB.

Was it Vance Joseph's decision to roll into the 2017 season with Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch as the starter and Osweiler as their only backup? Those QBs were all ELWAY creations. Vance Joseph inherited them all. He was stuck with trying to make something out of a bunch of stiffs, because Elway couldn't find anybody better.

Well, it was never a viable plan to try and make the playoffs with those loser QBs. But, whose plan was it? Elway's all the way! He insisted that they "develop" Paxton Lynch. He insisted that Osweiler would make a quality backup. He failed to go out in FA and get an acceptable QB starter. Even a backup quality starter would have been better than any of the QBs on the roster.
Well, my friend, responding to your previous post, I'm an optimist, for sure. But to the
quintessential pessimist (i.e., you), of course, I'm going to appear "wildly" over-optimistic. :lol:

We also couldn't be more different on the talent issue. You already have Heuerman as a bust,
when he has had little chance to show his wares under normal circumstances. You have to
recognize that he has come off a gruesome injury and did not have the advantage of any
offseason training. That is why he started to come on later in the season. I'm all for giving
him a chance to go through the offseason and see how he does then. He was a high draft
choice because of talent. And Butt is in the wings, just about recovered from his injury, too.
So we can't just dismiss the position as devoid of talent until we find out what we have.

The OL is missing one position: right tackle. I believe the rest of the line is set with McGovern
showing he is ready at RG, which will shift Leary back to LG where is is best. So the Broncos
need a RT, which they can go after, and some depth, which they can get in the mid-rounds.

Latimer has come on, and I believe he is ready to break out. He has shown in late season how
dangerous he can be. But we also have a draft with probably 10 selections to bring in talent.

I believe it is a mistake to dismiss Paxton Lynch as a bust. He has all of 5½ games under his
belt. Has his play been jaw-dropping? Mostly no, but I have already called attention to the first
years of Manning and Elway, respectively. Lynch needs more than a number of games one can
count on one hand. He has all the tools. He needs the opportunity to prove he can use them.
And Osweiler can be a quality backup. He has proven that (see 2015).

Anyway, I can see this headed to an "agree to disagree" arrangement, so let's do it now. Okay? :)

Rick
01-01-2018, 05:06 PM
Knowshon caught 60 passes out of the backfield. No current Broncos RB is a pass-catching threat in the red zone.

This part is completely false. Booker is a VERY good pass catching RB, and I think Henderson will prove to be dynamic as a receiving back as well.

7DnBrnc53
01-01-2018, 05:10 PM
... who were and are garbage, even though Franklin was a mid-2nd

Franklin should have been a guard from jump. I remember him making Rob Ninkovich look like Bruce Smith in the playoffs in 2011.


Again typical: Wolfe was a 2nd rounder, but Osweiler's our only 2012 pick still PLAYING—except for our final two picks, who are still quality starters.

Wolfe was a reach at the time. I remember Alfred Williams (on 104.3 The Fan) being crestfallen after they took him (he wanted guys like Jerel Worthy, Devon Still and Brandon Thompson instead because he felt they were more explosive, and hardly anyone heard of Wolfe).


Ray was simply wasted value for a team that already had not one but TWO All Pro likely HoFers at the position. He's not bad, but neither is he 1st round quality, and wouldn't have been worth OUR 1st round pick even if he were. You can't go BPA with a playoff team, because the "best players" are gone long before your pick, and even if one drops as Ray did, you probably already have too many good players to use him, as Denver did.

Joel, you know that I didn't like the Ray pick (should have drafted D.J. Humphries instead, although he isn't setting the world on fire yet). Also, you know that I was pissed off about the Sambrailo pick. Someone like NE that has starters should have taken him. Denver needed immediate OL help, not developmental people.


2016 - Hit it out of the park. Well, the jury's out on Paxton Lynch (maybe permanently
out). But after him, we got Gotsis, Simmons, Booker, McGovern, Janovich, Parks, and
Riley Dixon. All are still with us as of this final game, and all have impacted the squad
. . . well, except for Lynch so far. Would like to have a draft like this every year.

Gotsis is getting better, but could have had him later. Elway needs to learn what value is.


2017 - Another possible mother lode. Bolles, Walker, Carlos Henderson, Langley, Butt,
Mckenzie, De'Angelo Henderson, and Kelly. Too early to tell with some of them, of
course, and Carlos and Butt have been injured all season, of course. But all who have
played have flashed at times. A hopeful group, IMO.

Bolles is nice, but Walker doesn't fit this defensive scheme (Dion Dawkins would have been better). Also, C. Henderson and McKenzie were mistakes, as was Langley (I wasn't in love with the picks, so I'm not surprised.

Cugel
01-02-2018, 10:33 AM
This part is completely false. Booker is a VERY good pass catching RB, and I think Henderson will prove to be dynamic as a receiving back as well.

Booker made zero receiving impact with 30 passes and zero TDs receiving. "And I think Henderson WILL do great in the future" is not a factually based argument. He's done nothing so far. There is NO Broncos RB who is a red zone target who demands double teams or that defense account for him.

The Broncos TRIED to draft such a RB in Christian McCaffrey but he never got out of the top 10 picks so they couldn't do it. Carlos Henderson was SUPPOSED to be that kind of poor man's Christian McCaffrey as a slot receiver, although he's a WR not a RB, but he has zero catches on the season.

So far, zero impact from the 2017 draft. If you want to say all these stiffs will all suddenly turn into great impact players in year 2, fine. But, until it actually happens, you can't say "this is wrong!" :coffee:

Cugel
01-02-2018, 10:43 AM
Well, my friend, responding to your previous post, I'm an optimist, for sure. But to the
quintessential pessimist (i.e., you), of course, I'm going to appear "wildly" over-optimistic.

We also couldn't be more different on the talent issue. You already have Heuerman as a bust,
when he has had little chance to show his wares under normal circumstances. You have to
recognize that he has come off a gruesome injury and did not have the advantage of any
offseason training. That is why he started to come on later in the season. I'm all for giving
him a chance to go through the offseason and see how he does then. He was a high draft
choice because of talent. And Butt is in the wings, just about recovered from his injury, too.
So we can't just dismiss the position as devoid of talent until we find out what we have.

Obviously Jeff Heurmann is going to remain on the roster. They could use more than 1 TE and he's cheap. But 9 catches on the year including 3 in the last 4 games does not mean he's "coming around". HE's proven to be a marginal player at best so far. Will he develop if they get a veteran FA QB? Hopefully, but it hasn't happened yet.

As for Jake Butt, he suffered a devastating knee injury that made him fall from the 1st to the 5th round. They thought he could come back this year, but he failed to do it. NOBODY knows if he'll ever be the player he was at Michigan. Nobody knows how he will adapt to the NFL either. So, counting on him is just a big fantasy. They HOPE he will be great of course, but hope and about $3.95 will get you a latte at Starbucks.

So, there are no proven impact players on the Broncos on offense. DT and Sanders are declining in skill. They are stuck with DT because he's due $15m but they would like to get rid of him and tried to trade him during the regular season, only to find no takers due to his salary. They might try again but would probably have to eat some of that salary.

DMac insists they will deal Sanders and Aqib which will certainly not improve the talent level on the offense or defense. So does Vic Lombardi. I don't know but it seems reasonable.

Cugel
01-02-2018, 10:51 AM
The OL is missing one position: right tackle. I believe the rest of the line is set with McGovern showing he is ready at RG, which will shift Leary back to LG where is is best. So the Broncos need a RT, which they can go after, and some depth, which they can get in the mid-rounds.

Latimer has come on, and I believe he is ready to break out. He has shown in late season how
dangerous he can be. But we also have a draft with probably 10 selections to bring in talent.

I believe it is a mistake to dismiss Paxton Lynch as a bust. He has all of 5½ games under his
belt. Has his play been jaw-dropping? Mostly no, but I have already called attention to the first
years of Manning and Elway, respectively. Lynch needs more than a number of games one can
count on one hand. He has all the tools. He needs the opportunity to prove he can use them.
And Osweiler can be a quality backup. He has proven that (see 2015).

Anyway, I can see this headed to an "agree to disagree" arrangement, so let's do it now. Okay?

As for the OL, they could possibly start McGovern at one of the OL positions, but that might well be at C, rather than G. I've heard they might want to move Menelik Watson inside to RG and find a RT in FA. But, last year the only decent RT in the entire FA was Reilly Reiff who got $12m to go to the Vikings.

It won't be cheaper this year or easier to find a veteran stud RT. They could possibly draft a guy early, but that would depend on their finding a FA veteran like Case Keenum or Teddy Bridgewater who they pay $20m a year to be their future franchise QB. If they draft a QB with their #1 pick, they would have to find a RT in the second or 3rd round. Maybe they find that guy but he won't be a star next year. He'll be a weakness just like Garrett Bolles was in 2017.

As for Paxton, I imagine Elway will insist on keeping him around on the roster, but he really showed nothing good in what amounted to a meaningless pre-season game in which the Chefs tried to rest every single starting player they could because they don't get a bye-week before starting the playoffs.

The question for next year will be: "should the Broncos keep Paxton as their #3 scout team emergency developmental QB - or should that QB be Chad Kelly? They are certainly not counting on him developing into a starter any more. That ship sailed. They are going out in FA and trying to sign a veteran, and drafting a rookie QB to develop who will become the future franchise QB. Paxton is done. They might try and trade him.

Personally, I'm betting on Kelly not to suck. If he plays like Kyle Sloter during the off-season and they cut him and keep Lynch just because he was a first round Elway draft selection, I think there will be a min fan-revolt.

broncofaninfla
01-02-2018, 11:00 AM
I don't know a single NFL fan who is happy with their GM's track record with drafts. It's a crap shoot and even the best GM's have their misses. With that said Elway is still the same guy who brought this franchise a lot of success since he took over as GM and I have full faith he'll turn this thing around.

Tned
01-02-2018, 11:10 AM
Actually criticising that he had Osweiler higher than Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins is a legit criticism.

Not really. Here are a couple pre-draft rankings and discussions about QBs.

Let's be serious. Nobody had Wilson higher than Osweiler, not even CLOSE and virtually nobody had Cousins rated higher than Oswelier.

This whole hindsight thing is fun and all, but they don't have the benefit of that on draft night.

http://walterfootball.com/draft2012QB.php


http://www.footballsfuture.com/2012/prospects/qb.html

Tned
01-02-2018, 11:23 AM
You do realize that it wasnt just Elway that had Oz higher than Wilson and Cousins right? The draft rankings has nothing to do with the HC's, its all pre-determined by the scouts, etc. Now, you can argue that John didnt wait until the 3rd round to take a guy like Wilson or Cousins but it doesnt change the fact that going into the draft that Oz was rated as a higher prospect than the other two. If it wasnt John it would of been someone else taking Oz in the second round because that is where Oz was projected to go.

Exactly. Same with Lynch, who as we all know Dallas was trying to move up and snag and most of us cheered the victory of the Broncos getting him rather than Jones.

I've posted stats/details before, but have too much of a headache right now to dig the info up as a reminder, but the majority, vast majority, of QBs picked from the middle of the first round on are busts or at best become low upside, journeyman vets after failing as a starting QB. So, being 0-2 on his first two QBs isn't surprising, it's probably par for the course and if he hits on the next one and has a 33% success rate in late 1st/2nd round QBs that would probably put him on par or slightly better than the field.

Cugel
01-02-2018, 11:26 AM
Not really. Here are a couple pre-draft rankings and discussions about QBs.

Let's be serious. Nobody had Wilson higher than Osweiler, not even CLOSE and virtually nobody had Cousins rated higher than Oswelier.

This whole hindsight thing is fun and all, but they don't have the benefit of that on draft night.

http://walterfootball.com/draft2012QB.php


http://www.footballsfuture.com/2012/prospects/qb.html

I don't understand this kind of fan "thinking." Obviously, if anybody knew Wilson could lead a team to multiple SBs he would never have fallen out of the top 5 picks, and probably would go #1 or #2 overall.

So, unless every single GM in football is a complete idiot, Elway gets a pass for drafting Osweiler instead of Wilson.

topscribe
01-02-2018, 11:26 AM
Not really. Here are a couple pre-draft rankings and discussions about QBs.

Let's be serious. Nobody had Wilson higher than Osweiler, not even CLOSE and virtually nobody had Cousins rated higher than Oswelier.

This whole hindsight thing is fun and all, but they don't have the benefit of that on draft night.

http://walterfootball.com/draft2012QB.php


http://www.footballsfuture.com/2012/prospects/qb.html
So it looks as if Elway wasn't alone. The whole league was wrong about several quarterbacks . . .

Cugel
01-02-2018, 11:30 AM
Exactly. Same with Lynch, who as we all know Dallas was trying to move up and snag and most of us cheered the victory of the Broncos getting him rather than Jones.

I've posted stats/details before, but have too much of a headache right now to dig the info up as a reminder, but the majority, vast majority, of QBs picked from the middle of the first round on are busts or at best become low upside, journeyman vets after failing as a starting QB. So, being 0-2 on his first two QBs isn't surprising, it's probably par for the course and if he hits on the next one and has a 33% success rate in late 1st/2nd round QBs that would probably put him on par or slightly better than the field.

This is exactly right. By the time teams are drafting in the 2nd round the QBs taken are pretty bad. Most never pan out, and the 3rd and later round QBs who turn into NFL stars are so few that you can count them on the fingers of one hand: Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson (I'm not including Matt Schaub or Kyle Orton as successes because they never went to a SB and Dak Prescott hasn't done anything yet although he's promising).

Basically QBs get over-drafted. So, you need to get a top 5 QB to have a reasonable chance the guy won't suck. OR you need to be incredibly lucky like Dallas with Prescott or the Patriots with Brady. It's an open question whether the Bengals were "lucky" with 3rd rounder Andy Dalton or not.

Aaron Rogers fell to #24, and Drew Brees fell to #32, which is both still 1st round, but later first. That also is rare, but it does happen from time to time.

It's just that the top of the 1st round is where most of the really good QBs were drafted. And the exceptions merely prove the general rule.

Cugel
01-02-2018, 11:33 AM
So it looks as if Elway wasn't alone. The whole league was wrong about several quarterbacks . . .

That is in fact the problem with taking a QB in the second or later round. The entire league but you has to be wrong about him or he would never have gotten out of the first round. Because by passing on a QB in the first, you are saying "we don't think this guy is a franchise QB. More of a guy who MIGHT develop into a starting QB, but the odds aren't good enough for me to draft him in the first."

Well, what happens when you play roulette and you put your money on red #17 or #12? Normally you lose because the odds favor the casino.

Broncoknight30
01-02-2018, 12:56 PM
Not really. Here are a couple pre-draft rankings and discussions about QBs.

Let's be serious. Nobody had Wilson higher than Osweiler, not even CLOSE and virtually nobody had Cousins rated higher than Oswelier.

This whole hindsight thing is fun and all, but they don't have the benefit of that on draft night.

http://walterfootball.com/draft2012QB.php


http://www.footballsfuture.com/2012/prospects/qb.html

I am not saying it is fair, but that is the way drafts are judged. Of course it is ALL hindsight. That is all it is, and yes ALL of the scouts proved to be wrong with their projections. That too is conclusive. Same as them being wrong about Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Jamrcus Russell, Christian Ponder, Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, EJ Emanuel, Brandon Weeden, RGiII, and soon it will be Jameis Winston. There is a long list of scouts being wrong.

There is also a list of QBs that went in later rounds that made it. I do find it somewhat interesting that many of them are Big 10 QBs, where those QBs tend to have lesser numbers. Dating back to Brady, Drew Brees was a 2nd rounder, cousins, Wilson, and then we can add Tony Romo to the list. I forgot Garopolo which I think can also be added to that list.

This is about Elway and his lack of drafting success. Like I said this is how drafts are judged. Usually takes years later, but that is how it is done.

I personally did not see the ugrency with drafting a QB in the 2nd round in 2012. However, he did. Since he was the last QB taken before Wilson and Cousins, that is how it is judged.

Plus, it goes along with the unreal lack of success on the offensive side of the ball. Then, being one of two franchises to not draft a pro bowler, since 2012 it adds to the mess and it reflects in the shit we have endured the last 2 seasons.

Is it fair? No, but then again, it might be.

NightTerror218
01-02-2018, 03:44 PM
So it looks as if Elway wasn't alone. The whole league was wrong about several quarterbacks . . .

Then it comes down to a couple things. What did scouts miss. Did coaches not coach him up?

topscribe
01-02-2018, 04:04 PM
That is in fact the problem with taking a QB in the second or later round. The entire league but you has to be wrong about him or he would never have gotten out of the first round. Because by passing on a QB in the first, you are saying "we don't think this guy is a franchise QB. More of a guy who MIGHT develop into a starting QB, but the odds aren't good enough for me to draft him in the first."

Well, what happens when you play roulette and you put your money on red #17 or #12? Normally you lose because the odds favor the casino.
I guess you'll have to counsel the majority of the league on that . . .

Tned
01-02-2018, 04:17 PM
Then it comes down to a couple things. What did scouts miss. Did coaches not coach him up?

Or, he's the two out of three QBs that don't make it in the NFL.

Cugel
01-02-2018, 05:32 PM
So it looks as if Elway wasn't alone. The whole league was wrong about several quarterbacks . . .

That was my point TOP. That was my point.

I think Elway deserves a LOT of criticism for failing to make a trade back in 2015 for Joe Thomas, when all the Browns wanted was a 2nd round pick (reportedly). I can fault him for drafting Montee Ball or Sylvester Williams or Ty Sambrailo.

He deserves criticism for not fixing the OL and thinking that Menelik Watson was a viable RT. But, criticize Elway for failing to draft a QB nobody in the league thought was worth a 2nd round pick? Of course not!

If all these other GMs were so much smarter, why didn't they take Wilson? Answer: because Brock Osweiler was a better pro-prospect.

Sometimes the bear eats you.

11620

Cugel
01-02-2018, 05:35 PM
I guess you'll have to counsel the majority of the league on that . . .

Not any team that drafted a QB in the first round, which is most of the starting QBs. It's not easy to find a good QB in the second round. It can be done (Jimmy Garapolo for instance). But, it's not easy.

Cugel
01-02-2018, 05:41 PM
I guess you'll have to counsel the majority of the league on that . . .

Not any team that drafted a QB in the first round, which is most of the starting QBs. It's not easy to find a good QB in the second round. It can be done (Jimmy Garapolo for instance). But, it's not easy.

Sometimes a good QB will "fall": Drew Brees fell to #32 which is normally the bottom of the first, and Aaron Rogers went at #24 of the first.

But, remember how many QBs were drafted in the third round who SUCKED compared with the ONE Russell Wilson?

BroncoJoe
01-02-2018, 05:47 PM
That was my point TOP. That was my point.

I think Elway deserves a LOT of criticism for failing to make a trade back in 2015 for Joe Thomas, when all the Browns wanted was a 2nd round pick (reportedly).

Joe Thomas did not want to leave Cleveland. The Cleveland head office accommodated him. That wasn't on Elway.

The rest of your post is your typical word diarrhea.

BroncoJoe
01-02-2018, 05:51 PM
Not any team that drafted a QB in the first round, which is most of the starting QBs. It's not easy to find a good QB in the second round. It can be done (Jimmy Garapolo for instance). But, it's not easy.

Sometimes a good QB will "fall": Drew Brees fell to #32 which is normally the bottom of the first, and Aaron Rogers went at #24 of the first.

But, remember how many QBs were drafted in the third round who SUCKED compared with the ONE Russell Wilson?

Here's a bit of history for you, Cugel:

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/gallery/nfl-draft-15-super-bowl-winning-quarterbacks-not-first-round-picks-tom-brady-joe-montana-kurt-warner-brett-favre-042817

Broncoknight30
01-02-2018, 05:57 PM
Not any team that drafted a QB in the first round, which is most of the starting QBs. It's not easy to find a good QB in the second round. It can be done (Jimmy Garapolo for instance). But, it's not easy.

Sometimes a good QB will "fall": Drew Brees fell to #32 which is normally the bottom of the first, and Aaron Rogers went at #24 of the first.

But, remember how many QBs were drafted in the third round who SUCKED compared with the ONE Russell Wilson?

Joe Montana was drafted in the third round. :)

BroncoJoe
01-02-2018, 06:23 PM
Not any team that drafted a QB in the first round, which is most of the starting QBs. It's not easy to find a good QB in the second round. It can be done (Jimmy Garapolo for instance). But, it's not easy.

Sometimes a good QB will "fall": Drew Brees fell to #32 which is normally the bottom of the first, and Aaron Rogers went at #24 of the first.

But, remember how many QBs were drafted in the third round who SUCKED compared with the ONE Russell Wilson?

Shall we look at other 1st round QB's since 2000?

https://www.thesportster.com/football/top-15-biggest-quarterback-busts-since-2000/

It's not an exact science.

topscribe
01-02-2018, 06:40 PM
Shall we look at other 1st round QB's since 2000?

https://www.thesportster.com/football/top-15-biggest-quarterback-busts-since-2000/

It's not an exact science.
Well, at least Paxton isn't among them . . . yet . . .

Davii
01-03-2018, 10:13 AM
I'm glad nobody judges my job performance three or four years after the fact. I'm sure I could've done a lot of things better... Hindsight being 20/20 and all that.

Northman
01-03-2018, 10:28 AM
I'm glad nobody judges my job performance three or four years after the fact. I'm sure I could've done a lot of things better... Hindsight being 20/20 and all that.

I know right? Man, the shit i did as a teenager people would think so much less of me....lol

Tned
01-03-2018, 11:30 AM
I'm glad nobody judges my job performance three or four years after the fact. I'm sure I could've done a lot of things better... Hindsight being 20/20 and all that.

Won six playoff appearances, three AFCCG appearances, two AFC championships/SB appearances and one SB win.

Contrast that to the success, or lack there of, in the time between Elway retiring and Elway joining the front office.

I'm not going to get too down on Elway for two down seasons after the success he's had as GM.

Cugel
01-03-2018, 11:49 AM
Joe Thomas did not want to leave Cleveland. The Cleveland head office accommodated him. That wasn't on Elway.

The rest of your post is your typical word diarrhea.

Joe Thomas privately said different things than in public. The Browns offered him, but Elway balked at the price which was a 2nd round pick. That was the report. It had nothing to do with Joe Thomas' stated preferences. Nothing.

The rest of your post is just typical BroncoJoe B.S.

Cugel
01-03-2018, 11:52 AM
What six playoff appearances, three AFCCG appearances, two AFC championships/SB appearances and one SB win.

Contrast that to the success, or lack there of, in the time between Elway retiring and Elway joining the front office.

I'm not going to get too down on Elway for two down seasons after the success he's had as GM.

I suppose that Elway deserves a lot of criticism, but who would have been better? Probably nobody. He has earned a ton or respect for the manner in which he managed the team to two SBs in the last 5 years and 1 SB victory.

That bought him a new five year deal this off-season. He still has 4 years left on his contract. We'll see how he does moving forward without an elite QB in Peyton Manning. Mike Shanahan failed in that situation after Elway's retirement. But, he was GM as well as coach and made bad drafting decisions.

Can Elway improve his drafting? That's the key question.

Cugel
01-03-2018, 11:54 AM
Shall we look at other 1st round QB's since 2000?

https://www.thesportster.com/football/top-15-biggest-quarterback-busts-since-2000/

It's not an exact science.

Only BroncoJoe can repeat the same point I made while making it appear like a gratuitous insult. Mostly because he never understands simple concepts. :coffee:

7DnBrnc53
01-05-2018, 04:01 AM
Joe Thomas privately said different things than in public. The Browns offered him, but Elway balked at the price which was a 2nd round pick. That was the report. It had nothing to do with Joe Thomas' stated preferences. Nothing.

The rest of your post is just typical BroncoJoe B.S.

If that was the trade (I heard something about how the Browns wanted Shaq Barrett), Elway is a fool for turning that down. You aren't gonna find a guy like Thomas in Round 2. Also, while the Broncos wouldn't have gotten Gotsis in Round 2, they could have had him later.

Cugel
01-10-2018, 11:28 PM
Shall we look at other 1st round QB's since 2000?

https://www.thesportster.com/football/top-15-biggest-quarterback-busts-since-2000/

It's not an exact science.

You've got it backwards. Lots of 1st round QBs fail. That does NOT mean it's better to draft a QB in the 2nd round, because the percentages are a lot worse.

Here you go: take a look for yourself how many QBs have been drafted after #56 in the second round (where the Broncos took Osweiler) and how many were worth anything: NFL Draft History by Position (http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position)

For every Russell Wilson there's a LOT of guys who suck. The odds are less than 1% that some doofus you draft in the 7th round like Trevor Siemian is every going to be any good.

Shazam!
01-11-2018, 05:06 AM
Shall we look at other 1st round QB's since 2000?

https://www.thesportster.com/football/top-15-biggest-quarterback-busts-since-2000/

It's not an exact science.

You've got it backwards. Lots of 1st round QBs fail. That does NOT mean it's better to draft a QB in the 2nd round, because the percentages are a lot worse.

Here you go: take a look for yourself how many QBs have been drafted after #56 in the second round (where the Broncos took Osweiler) and how many were worth anything: NFL Draft History by Position (http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position)

For every Russell Wilson there's a LOT of guys who suck. The odds are less than 1% that some doofus you draft in the 7th round like Trevor Siemian is every going to be any good.

You call Siemien a doofus lol

Broncos QBs werent given a lot of tools to put them in any kind of position to operate lets be honest.

BroncoWave
01-11-2018, 07:22 AM
What six playoff appearances, three AFCCG appearances, two AFC championships/SB appearances and one SB win.

Contrast that to the success, or lack there of, in the time between Elway retiring and Elway joining the front office.

I'm not going to get too down on Elway for two down seasons after the success he's had as GM.

Nor am I, but you do have to wonder a bit how much of that success was due to Manning, and the types of FAs (Ware for example) he was able to attract here.

If we draft another QB this year and Elway whiffs again and the team continues to struggle, it really might be time to start questioning things.

But for now I do agree that it is too early to start those talks.

BroncoWave
01-11-2018, 07:22 AM
What six playoff appearances, three AFCCG appearances, two AFC championships/SB appearances and one SB win.

Contrast that to the success, or lack there of, in the time between Elway retiring and Elway joining the front office.

I'm not going to get too down on Elway for two down seasons after the success he's had as GM.

Nor am I, but you do have to wonder a bit how much of that success was due to Manning, and the types of FAs (Ware for example) he was able to attract here.

If we draft another QB this year and Elway whiffs again and the team continues to struggle, it really might be time to start questioning things.

But for now I do agree that it is too early to start those talks.

Tned
01-11-2018, 09:07 AM
Nor am I, but you do have to wonder a bit how much of that success was due to Manning, and the types of FAs (Ware for example) he was able to attract here.

If we draft another QB this year and Elway whiffs again and the team continues to struggle, it really might be time to start questioning things.

But for now I do agree that it is too early to start those talks.

Even if it was due to Manning and Ware and the like, Elway brought them to Denver. It's not like Denver was Mecca at that time. The Broncos struggled at the end of the Shanahan regime and were completely decimated by McDaniel's incompetence, it's not like they were a perennial SB contender that free agents were clamoring to come to. Elway rebuilt the team with draft and FA, and some players that remained from before he took over (DT for instance).

BroncoWave
01-11-2018, 10:10 AM
Even if it was due to Manning and Ware and the like, Elway brought them to Denver. It's not like Denver was Mecca at that time. The Broncos struggled at the end of the Shanahan regime and were completely decimated by McDaniel's incompetence, it's not like they were a perennial SB contender that free agents were clamoring to come to. Elway rebuilt the team with draft and FA, and some players that remained from before he took over (DT for instance).

Yes Elway brought Manning to Denver, but that's not exactly a sustainable long term strategy. A hall of fame QB isn't just going to come available every time we hit a down period as a franchise. Eventually, Elway will have to find that guy through the draft.

Al Wilson 4 Mayor
01-11-2018, 10:02 PM
Wave, how do you feel about the guy who drafted Tebow in the first round to play quarterback?

Poet
01-11-2018, 10:10 PM
Elway's best skill is in attracting free agents. He needs to stick to that and let someone else handle more of the drafting.

He's the John Calipari of the sport.

BroncoWave
01-11-2018, 10:43 PM
Wave, how do you feel about the guy who drafted Tebow in the first round to play quarterback?

I've made it quite clear that I thought his biggest weakness was talent evaluation.

Having said that, more of the pro bowls accounted for on our offense currently were drafted by McDaniels than Elway.

Cugel
01-14-2018, 02:54 PM
Nor am I, but you do have to wonder a bit how much of that success was due to Manning, and the types of FAs (Ware for example) he was able to attract here.

If we draft another QB this year and Elway whiffs again and the team continues to struggle, it really might be time to start questioning things.

But for now I do agree that it is too early to start those talks.

Agreed. Elway has to find a veteran FA QB capable of wining games now, and he has to draft a QB of the future and develop him. If they manage to sign Cousins, then they can use their #1 draft pick on the best impact player available. Otherwise, if they wind up with some stiff like Sam Bradford of the ancient ghost of Josh McCown then that rookie had better be ready sooner rather than later.

If they land someone like Teddy Bridgewater or AJ McCarron, then I suppose it's somewhere in the middle.

Cugel
01-14-2018, 02:59 PM
I've made it quite clear that I thought his biggest weakness was talent evaluation.

Having said that, more of the pro bowls accounted for on our offense currently were drafted by McDaniels than Elway.

I think that's why Sullivan got demoted to only evaluating defensive players, and they brought in Kubiak to evaluate offensive talent. The defensive players they brought in either through the draft or FA have pretty much all worked out (Brenden Langley aside). But, none of the Offensive players they drafted or signed have been worth much.

And that trend continued in 2017, when they took Bolles rather than Ramcyck or the BPA, Reuben Foster because they didn't have a LT on the roster. That's just inept. You should NEVER have to draft for need. Its forgivable if you have to draft a QB and do, but any other position player, you should find your starter through FA, and then draft to develop and replace that FA when the rookie matures into his role.

EX: Bradley Roby. They didn't need a CB when they drafted him, but he was the BPA. So, they took him and let him develop for a couple years and now he's ready to be a #2 CB starter. They haven't replicated that success with the offense.

Tned
01-14-2018, 03:20 PM
Yes Elway brought Manning to Denver, but that's not exactly a sustainable long term strategy. A hall of fame QB isn't just going to come available every time we hit a down period as a franchise. Eventually, Elway will have to find that guy through the draft.

Or, in this case, he may sign Cousins. Either way, you can't discredit what he did, by saying, "yes, but he must do something else to be successful long term."

Drafting QBs is a hit or miss, miss, miss, miss, miss proposition as we've discussed on here very many times.

In an ideal world, Elway would draft a top five, franchise QB in a few months, but we all know that very rarely happens, which is why there are so many teams looking for top tier QBs or trying to get bye on a bottom tier QB with hopes that he will finally reach his potential.

My suggestion is that we judge Elway on what he "might not do" after he actually doesn't do it.

topscribe
01-14-2018, 04:01 PM
Yes Elway brought Manning to Denver, but that's not exactly a sustainable long term strategy. A hall of fame QB isn't just going to come available every time we hit a down period as a franchise. Eventually, Elway will have to find that guy through the draft.
Drafting an HOF QB is a stroke of luck, even if drafting high. It just doesn't happen very often.
In fact, a team many times will incur bad luck (see Ryan Leaf, DeMarcus Russell, etc.).

But let's not lose the perspective that the objective is not to draft a HOF QB, but to win a
Super Bowl. A good QB can do that with the proper supporting cast. He doesn't necessarily
have to be elite. Denver needs one who can be decently accurate and understands that he
should pass only to those wearing the same uniform as he. If he can do that, Denver has a
playoff team . . .

Cugel
01-14-2018, 04:14 PM
Or, in this case, he may sign Cousins. Either way, you can't discredit what he did, by saying, "yes, but he must do something else to be successful long term."

Drafting QBs is a hit or miss, miss, miss, miss, miss proposition as we've discussed on here very many times.

In an ideal world, Elway would draft a top five, franchise QB in a few months, but we all know that very rarely happens, which is why there are so many teams looking for top tier QBs or trying to get bye on a bottom tier QB with hopes that he will finally reach his potential.

My suggestion is that we judge Elway on what he "might not do" after he actually doesn't do it.

Elway has certainly had his failures in both the draft a FA:

1. Failed to secure Osweiler after deciding he was his franchise QB, got out-bid because he underestimated the market. Got lucky when Osweiler proved to be a scrub.

2. Failed to lock up Malik Jackson or Danny Trevathan long term before they could hit FA and get a big contract. Broncos now lack a penetrating DT to complement Von Miller or a ILB who can cover TEs over the middle.

3. Underestimated the market for CJ Anderson, and had to match his $4.5m offer from the Dolphins. Failed to lock up DT forcing them to negotiate when he had hit FA; result was DT got an enormous contract that he's no longer worth. Now they are having to re-negotiate and try and claw back some of that money if DT is to stay on the roster this year.

4. Failed to get adequate OL. Drafted Bolles after failing to sign a FA LT or develop any of his previous OL draft picks.

5. Waited to sign Von until he hit FA after becoming SB MVP. Worst negotiating leverage ever.

One could go on and on. But, clearly Elway is not worse than a lot of other GMs around the league.

The Vikings have 3 QBs and might go to the SB, but none are under contract for next year. Can you imagine how much they would have to pay if Keenum won the SB? How stupid is that?

The Redskins and Cousins saga of failure is well documented. So, Elway has a lot of company.

It mostly matters what he does moving forward. Does he fix things and get back to winning playoff games, or does he blunder through another 2 losing seasons with the wrong QB?

Cugel
01-14-2018, 04:20 PM
Drafting an HOF QB is a stroke of luck, even if drafting high. It just doesn't happen very often.
In fact, a team many times will incur bad luck (see Ryan Leaf, DeMarcus Russell, etc.).

But let's not lose the perspective that the objective is not to draft a HOF QB, but to win a
Super Bowl. A good QB can do that with the proper supporting cast. He doesn't necessarily
have to be elite. Denver needs one who can be decently accurate and understands that he
should pass only to those wearing the same uniform as he. If he can do that, Denver has a
playoff team . . .

I'd agree, except that we are now witnessing Brady about to win another damn SB. So, don't tell us that it doesn't take an elite QB when the preceding SBs will have been won by Brady, Brady, Manning, Brady, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco (exception), Eli Manning, Aaron Rogers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisbeger (2).

Even Flacco had a career year the year they won. It's just damn hard to win SBs without an elite QB. Yes, Denver won with defense in 2015, but they still had Manning for his leadership. Besides that kind of thing normally only happens once every 10 years - and never to the same team twice.

Tned
01-14-2018, 04:30 PM
Elway has certainly had his failures in both the draft a FA:

1. Failed to secure Osweiler after deciding he was his franchise QB, got out-bid because he underestimated the market. Got lucky when Osweiler proved to be a scrub.

2. Failed to lock up Malik Jackson or Danny Trevathan long term before they could hit FA and get a big contract. Broncos now lack a penetrating DT to complement Von Miller or a ILB who can cover TEs over the middle.

3. Underestimated the market for CJ Anderson, and had to match his $4.5m offer from the Dolphins. Failed to lock up DT forcing them to negotiate when he had hit FA; result was DT got an enormous contract that he's no longer worth. Now they are having to re-negotiate and try and claw back some of that money if DT is to stay on the roster this year.

4. Failed to get adequate OL. Drafted Bolles after failing to sign a FA LT or develop any of his previous OL draft picks.

5. Waited to sign Von until he hit FA after becoming SB MVP. Worst negotiating leverage ever.

One could go on and on. But, clearly Elway is not worse than a lot of other GMs around the league.

The Vikings have 3 QBs and might go to the SB, but none are under contract for next year. Can you imagine how much they would have to pay if Keenum won the SB? How stupid is that?

The Redskins and Cousins saga of failure is well documented. So, Elway has a lot of company.

It mostly matters what he does moving forward. Does he fix things and get back to winning playoff games, or does he blunder through another 2 losing seasons with the wrong QB?

When you do hindsight cherry picking, every GM has "failures" as you define them.

For instance, Malik wanted a BIG payday. You have no clue if it was even possible to sign him before he became a FA. Also, he knew he was going to need to spend obscene dollars on Von and was trying to sign Osweiler, which at the time seemed like a smart move.

It's very easy to play arm chair ESPN analyst and look back and pick and choose what a GM "could" have done different, but the the GM doesn't have the equal foresight to your hindsight to make all the right historically analyzed moves.

What you can do is look at wins and losses, and the Broncos had one of the most successful runs in franchise history in Elway's first five years.

Tned
01-14-2018, 04:32 PM
I'd agree, except that we are now witnessing Brady about to win another damn SB. So, don't tell us that it doesn't take an elite QB when the preceding SBs will have been won by Brady, Brady, Manning, Brady, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco (exception), Eli Manning, Aaron Rogers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisbeger (2).

Even Flacco had a career year the year they won. It's just damn hard to win SBs without an elite QB. Yes, Denver won with defense in 2015, but they still had Manning for his leadership. Besides that kind of thing normally only happens once every 10 years - and never to the same team twice.

Ok, so you've laid out how often a team wins with defense, now lay out how often teams draft elite QBs outside of the top 10 picks in the NFL draft. Heck, even include all picks. What is the success rate of drafting elite QBs, which you say is necessary to win a SB?

topscribe
01-14-2018, 04:50 PM
I'd agree, except that we are now witnessing Brady about to win another damn SB. So, don't tell us that it doesn't take an elite QB when the preceding SBs will have been won by Brady, Brady, Manning, Brady, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco (exception), Eli Manning, Aaron Rogers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisbeger (2).

Even Flacco had a career year the year they won. It's just damn hard to win SBs without an elite QB. Yes, Denver won with defense in 2015, but they still had Manning for his leadership. Besides that kind of thing normally only happens once every 10 years - and never to the same team twice.
Brady is not an argument for the necessity of having an elite QB to win the SB. He is simply what
many consider as the greatest QB to play the game. Yes, he was necessary for the Patriots since
they don't have the best team without him. But, again, that's Brady.

IMO, Wilson, Flacco, and even Roethlisberger are very good QBs who are not on the elite level.
Of the present QBs, that club is limited to Brady, Brees, and Rodgers. And Brees has a defense,
and it was questionable whether Green Bay was a playoff team, even with a healthy Rodgers.
And where are Wilson and Flacco now, during this playoff time? And now Roethlisberger will watch
the rest of the postseason from his couch, having lost to Blake Bortles & Co. (and their defense).

The fact is, if Denver drafts a QB with their 1st, they will be rolling the dice. The examples of
first-round busts I provided are just two of many. Elway knew the prescription for a Super Bowl
in 2015 because all he had for QBs were Osweiler and an aged, broken down Manning. The
defense took over and rolled through the playoffs and the SB. Building such a team is more likely
than drafting an elite QB, IMO.

Cugel
01-14-2018, 06:53 PM
The fact is, if Denver drafts a QB with their 1st, they will be rolling the dice. The examples of
first-round busts I provided are just two of many. Elway knew the prescription for a Super Bowl
in 2015 because all he had for QBs were Osweiler and an aged, broken down Manning. The
defense took over and rolled through the playoffs and the SB. Building such a team is more likely
than drafting an elite QB, IMO.

Not in anyone else's opinion though. :coffee:

That formula of winning with great defense only works on average once every ten years: '85 Bears, 2000 Ravens, 2015 Broncos, and never with the same team twice.

It's a mirage to think the Broncos can ever replicate that success with some average stiff as QB. Elway clearly doesn't think so any more if he ever did. He's going to try and find his next top 10 Franchise QB through the draft, and if necessary FA. But, he's definitely going to keep looking for that next great QB until he finds someone.

As for Ben Roethlisberger, you can think what you like, but he's a 1st ballot Hall of Famer. Not even in question at this point.

topscribe
01-14-2018, 08:04 PM
That formula of winning with great defense only works on average once every ten years: '85 Bears, 2000 Ravens, 2015 Broncos, and never with the same team twice.

I guess I don't look at building a defense as if it were the lottery. It's doing something like Elway did, and he's still there.


It's a mirage to think the Broncos can ever replicate that success with some average stiff as QB. Elway clearly doesn't think so any more if he ever did. He's going to try and find his next top 10 Franchise QB through the draft, and if necessary FA. But, he's definitely going to keep looking for that next great QB until he finds someone.
Who said anything about an "average stiff"? There are good QBs out there, and they are much, much easier to find than
the "next great QB," the latter which belongs to a minute percentage and, as I mentioned, is a matter of luck to find.
Now, you might compare that to the lottery.


As for Ben Roethlisberger, you can think what you like, but he's a 1st ballot Hall of Famer. Not even in question at this point.
I believe the HOF to be a marginal measuring stick for greatness. Players are in there who probably never should have
been nominated, and others rebuffed who should have been in there a long time ago.

Ben is a very good QB. There is no doubt of that. I just don't place him on a plateau with Brady, Elway, or Manning in
his prime. Nonetheless, I would be thrilled to have him in the orange & blue. The Broncos would instantly be Super
Bowl contenders. So I'm not denigrating Ben at all. I'm just trying to be realistic in my assessments.

In all, the Broncos don't need an HOF QB to contend. They just need a good one who can consistently get the ball into
the hands of his own teammates. They have the core to take care of the rest.


EDIT: The Minnesota Vikings, led by average stiff QB Case Keenum, just defeated the New Orleans Saints, led by
future HOFer Drew Brees. So the Vikings' next game will be against the Philadelphia Eagles, led by none other than
average stiff Nick Foles, who beat the Atlanta Falcons, led by Matt Ryan. I acquiesce that the Super Bowl will likely
be won by Tom Brady and his Patriots, but look who all were eliminated already.

Tned
01-14-2018, 10:07 PM
Not in anyone else's opinion though. :coffee:

That formula of winning with great defense only works on average once every ten years: '85 Bears, 2000 Ravens, 2015 Broncos, and never with the same team twice.

It's a mirage to think the Broncos can ever replicate that success with some average stiff as QB. Elway clearly doesn't think so any more if he ever did. He's going to try and find his next top 10 Franchise QB through the draft, and if necessary FA. But, he's definitely going to keep looking for that next great QB until he finds someone.

As for Ben Roethlisberger, you can think what you like, but he's a 1st ballot Hall of Famer. Not even in question at this point.

Elway has said multiple times since joining the Broncos front office that he wants a franchise QB (or words to that effect). The problem is not wanting one, the challenge he has like every other GM in the league, is finding one.

Those that slam his drafting skills for not yet finding one at the end of the first or 2nd rounds, just don't pay much attention to the success rate in the NFL drafting QBs. Those that think he should have made a bold move to grab one early in a round, don't grasp how much that really costs in terms of current/future picks. Look how expensive it has been for teams to move up when they've been in or around the top 10. With the Broncos generally picking in the 20's or higher, moving up take a QB in the top three would nearly impossible.

Look at what teams have given up (Washington RGIII, Eagles Wentz and Rams Goff) and when the Rams moved up to number one, they were either the lowest team to ever do that (15th) or close.

Elway understands he needs "the guy" at QB. We the fans understand it. The media understands it.

The problem is, just like every other GM out there, just knowing it doesn't mean the QB fairy leaves you one under your pillow.

BroncoWave
01-14-2018, 10:12 PM
Elway has said multiple times since joining the Broncos front office that he wants a franchise QB (or words to that effect). The problem is not wanting one, the challenge he has like every other GM in the league, is finding one.

Those that slam his drafting skills for not yet finding one at the end of the first or 2nd rounds, just don't pay much attention to the success rate in the NFL drafting QBs. Those that think he should have made a bold move to grab one early in a round, don't grasp how much that really costs in terms of current/future picks. Look how expensive it has been for teams to move up when they've been in or around the top 10. With the Broncos generally picking in the 20's or higher, moving up take a QB in the top three would nearly impossible.

Look at what teams have given up (Washington RGIII, Eagles Wentz and Rams Goff) and when the Rams moved up to number one, they were either the lowest team to ever do that (15th) or close.

Elway understands he needs "the guy" at QB. We the fans understand it. The media understands it.

The problem is, just like every other GM out there, just knowing it doesn't mean the QB fairy leaves you one under your pillow.

While it's hard to draft a HOF QB for sure, Elway hasn't even drafted an AVERAGE one yet. Just two flat out scrubs. If he can just draft a middle of the road QB that's a huge step in the right direction. Obviously it's asking too much to expect a HOFer in this draft, but he really can't whiff again.

7DnBrnc53
01-15-2018, 12:25 AM
Brady is not an argument for the necessity of having an elite QB to win the SB. He is simply what
many consider as the greatest QB to play the game. Yes, he was necessary for the Patriots since
they don't have the best team without him. But, again, that's Brady.

I think that a lot of QB's could have led the Pats to five SB wins the last 16 years. Brady is the most overrated player of all-time. My advice to anyone would be to watch the NE games, not listen to what the talking heads on TV say. They are paid to pimp Brady.


Those that slam his drafting skills for not yet finding one at the end of the first or 2nd rounds, just don't pay much attention to the success rate in the NFL drafting QBs. Those that think he should have made a bold move to grab one early in a round, don't grasp how much that really costs in terms of current/future picks. Look how expensive it has been for teams to move up when they've been in or around the top 10. With the Broncos generally picking in the 20's or higher, moving up take a QB in the top three would nearly impossible.

I don't slam his drafting skills on Day 2 because he hasn't found an elite QB. I slam his Day 2 skills because he is showing that he is ignorant about value by drafting guys that are reaches. And, I agree with you about the success rate in drafting QB's. Over the years, there haven't been as many first-round success stories as some may think:

http://logicaloptimizer.blogspot.com/2010/02/tremendous-falibility-of-nfl-talent.html

Tned
01-15-2018, 07:59 AM
While it's hard to draft a HOF QB for sure, Elway hasn't even drafted an AVERAGE one yet. Just two flat out scrubs. If he can just draft a middle of the road QB that's a huge step in the right direction. Obviously it's asking too much to expect a HOFer in this draft, but he really can't whiff again.

As it goes with drafting QBs outside the top 3 spots in the draft.

topscribe
01-15-2018, 09:13 PM
As it goes with drafting QBs outside the top 3 spots in the draft.
Drafting a QB in the 2nd round is like drafting a lineman in the 4th or 5th. He might make it,
and he might not. That's why Osweiler, for instance, wasn't picked in the first round. It's like
trying to avoid snake eyes or box cars while trying to match the five you just rolled.

Elway didn't "whiff" with Osweiler. He hit a blooper single. He found a good backup QB there.
The jury has to be out still on Lynch. Five and a half games are not enough to tell what they
have. They just aren't. So those are the two about whom many on these boards keep telling
us that Elway "whiffed." The others he drafted were 7th rounders . . . you know, those who
aren't expected to make it, anyway.

I think Elway has gotten a bad rap on drafting QBs. The truth is, we still don't know how he
did completely. But "whiffing" on QBs is a league-wide thing. Somebody tell me which of
these quarterbacks Elway drafted:

Ryan Leaf
JaMarcus Russell
Rex Grossman
Tim Tebow
Brady Quinn
Sam Bradford
Mark Sanchez
Joey Harrington
Blaine Gabbert
Matt Leinart
Vince Young
David Carr
Jake Locker
Rick Mirer
Akili Smith
Justin Blackmon
Tim Couch

I'll wait . . .

Cugel
01-16-2018, 12:19 AM
Elway has said multiple times since joining the Broncos front office that he wants a franchise QB (or words to that effect). The problem is not wanting one, the challenge he has like every other GM in the league, is finding one.

Those that slam his drafting skills for not yet finding one at the end of the first or 2nd rounds, just don't pay much attention to the success rate in the NFL drafting QBs. Those that think he should have made a bold move to grab one early in a round, don't grasp how much that really costs in terms of current/future picks. Look how expensive it has been for teams to move up when they've been in or around the top 10. With the Broncos generally picking in the 20's or higher, moving up take a QB in the top three would nearly impossible.

Look at what teams have given up (Washington RGIII, Eagles Wentz and Rams Goff) and when the Rams moved up to number one, they were either the lowest team to ever do that (15th) or close.

Elway understands he needs "the guy" at QB. We the fans understand it. The media understands it.

The problem is, just like every other GM out there, just knowing it doesn't mean the QB fairy leaves you one under your pillow.

This is all correct. I don't blame Elway for drafting Osweiler or Lynch. The fact those guys didn't work out is not his fault. He deserves some criticism for not locking up Osweiler before he hit FA. That was his plan and he bungled it. Fortunately, it turned out to be a good thing as Osweiler tanked. But, that was luck. IF Osweiler had turned into a franchise QB Elway would be justly criticized.

Fans don't normally realize that the draft is a QB lottery with the odds permanently against teams. About 1/2 those QBs drafted in the first round are busts. These percentages just get a lot worse in the 2nd while 3rd or later round QBs are so seldom long term starters that you can count the exceptions on the fingers of both hands.

But, you need a Franchise QB if you don't have one, and it's tough to find one via FA. You either have to be very lucky or overpay badly or both. And even then it doesn't always work out.

Cugel
01-16-2018, 12:24 AM
Elway didn't "whiff" with Osweiler. He hit a blooper single. He found a good backup QB there.
The jury has to be out still on Lynch. Five and a half games are not enough to tell what they
have. They just aren't. So those are the two about whom many on these boards keep telling
us that Elway "whiffed." The others he drafted were 7th rounders . . . you know, those who
aren't expected to make it, anyway.

Will the jury still be out on Lynch if the Broncos get rid of him? There's a good chance that happens this off-season. Vance Joseph certainly doesn't want to rely on him in what will be a make or break year for himself. I get the feeling that the team has moved on from Paxton.

Elway could insist on keeping him around on the roster, but for what? Insurance in case their rookie draft pick sucks? Would Paxton make an adequate replacement in that case? Not by anything we've seen so far. He only started a few games because he sucked so badly they coudn't get him on the field after 2 seasons. His performance shows no signs of his ever becoming a franchise QB.

BTW Top: IF Jacksonville wins the SB, then we might conclude that it's possible to win with an average QB and great defense more often than once every ten years on average, but note that it didn't happen between 1985 and 2000. So, sometimes a longer period than 10 years happens between such examples. Or shorter.

Unless some team wins TWICE using that method it's safe to conclude it will never happen. :coffee:

topscribe
01-16-2018, 12:01 PM
Will the jury still be out on Lynch if the Broncos get rid of him? There's a good chance that happens this off-season. Vance Joseph certainly doesn't want to rely on him in what will be a make or break year for himself. I get the feeling that the team has moved on from Paxton.

Elway could insist on keeping him around on the roster, but for what? Insurance in case their rookie draft pick sucks? Would Paxton make an adequate replacement in that case? Not by anything we've seen so far. He only started a few games because he sucked so badly they coudn't get him on the field after 2 seasons. His performance shows no signs of his ever becoming a franchise QB.

BTW Top: IF Jacksonville wins the SB, then we might conclude that it's possible to win with an average QB and great defense more often than once every ten years on average, but note that it didn't happen between 1985 and 2000. So, sometimes a longer period than 10 years happens between such examples. Or shorter.

Unless some team wins TWICE using that method it's safe to conclude it will never happen. :coffee:
Sure, the jury's still out if the Broncos dump him. He could go on and be a success with another team,
or he could prove there that he is a bust. Both VJ and Elway have admitted that they still don't know
what they have in Lynch because he hasn't had the time on the field that he needs. They both realize
that 5½ games is not enough of a sample. I hate to keep bringing it up, but it's a fact: Elway himself
blew nearly his first entire year before becoming one of the greatest ever to play.

The team has some tough decisions to make at quarterback. They may feel they have to release
Lynch. I'll support them on that. They may retain him. I'll support them on that. I'm just glad I'm not
the one making those decisions . . .

Broncoknight30
01-17-2018, 07:39 AM
Drafting a QB in the 2nd round is like drafting a lineman in the 4th or 5th. He might make it,
and he might not. That's why Osweiler, for instance, wasn't picked in the first round. It's like
trying to avoid snake eyes or box cars while trying to match the five you just rolled.

Elway didn't "whiff" with Osweiler. He hit a blooper single. He found a good backup QB there.
The jury has to be out still on Lynch. Five and a half games are not enough to tell what they
have. They just aren't. So those are the two about whom many on these boards keep telling
us that Elway "whiffed." The others he drafted were 7th rounders . . . you know, those who
aren't expected to make it, anyway.

I think Elway has gotten a bad rap on drafting QBs. The truth is, we still don't know how he
did completely. But "whiffing" on QBs is a league-wide thing. Somebody tell me which of
these quarterbacks Elway drafted:

Ryan Leaf
JaMarcus Russell
Rex Grossman
Tim Tebow
Brady Quinn
Sam Bradford
Mark Sanchez
Joey Harrington
Blaine Gabbert
Matt Leinart
Vince Young
David Carr
Jake Locker
Rick Mirer
Akili Smith
Justin Blackmon
Tim Couch

I'll wait . . .

You forgot JP Losman, Christian Ponder and EJ Manuel. :)

Oh wait, you are talking about top 3. Got it. Then again Tebow was not a top 3 and I don't think Grossman was.

I wonder what the list would be for FIRST ROUNDERS.

Tned
01-17-2018, 08:47 AM
You forgot JP Losman, Christian Ponder and EJ Manuel. :)

Oh wait, you are talking about top 3. Got it. Then again Tebow was not a top 3 and I don't think Grossman was.

I wonder what the list would be for FIRST ROUNDERS.

I posted it once, it's not pretty.

MO, correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't you throw out some number which was like single digit success on drafting QBs. Can't remember if that was first round or first/second, but basically a very low percentage of QBs picked (not talking 7th rounders here) ever amount to top tier starting QBs or even average starting QBs for that matter.

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01-17-2018, 11:40 AM
You forgot JP Losman, Christian Ponder and EJ Manuel. :)

Oh wait, you are talking about top 3. Got it. Then again Tebow was not a top 3 and I don't think Grossman was.

I wonder what the list would be for FIRST ROUNDERS.
Those are all first rounders . . .

Cugel
01-17-2018, 03:18 PM
Those are all first rounders . . .

The problem is that there are usually 1 or 2 QBs in any draft who are franchise QBs and the rest are fish bait. Sometimes it's impossible to tell in advance who that QB will be (ex. Russell Wilson, 3rd round, DAK Prescott, 4th round).

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01-17-2018, 04:37 PM
The problem is that there are usually 1 or 2 QBs in any draft who are franchise QBs and the rest are fish bait. Sometimes it's impossible to tell in advance who that QB will be (ex. Russell Wilson, 3rd round, DAK Prescott, 4th round).
And sometimes in what was thought a motherlode of franchise QBs, they all fail to live up to their promises (e.g., Leinart, RGIII, Cutler).

Cugel
01-18-2018, 06:45 PM
And sometimes in what was thought a motherlode of franchise QBs, they all fail to live up to their promises (e.g., Leinart, RGIII, Cutler).

True, but if you don't have a franchise QB you can't win, so there's no choice but to try and find one, no matter how hard it is.

Since there is no real sure fire can't miss QB in FA, except Kirk Cousins, and he's very unlikely to come here or leave DC, it's probably down to a veteran bridge QB and draft a guy and try and develop him.

topscribe
01-18-2018, 10:15 PM
True, but if you don't have a franchise QB you can't win, so there's no choice but to try and find one, no matter how hard it is.

Since there is no real sure fire can't miss QB in FA, except Kirk Cousins, and he's very unlikely to come here or leave DC, it's probably down to a veteran bridge QB and draft a guy and try and develop him.
Very possible. Hard to argue with that . . .