The Way Forward For Next Year!

[Cugel]

After the Broncos have been semi-officially eliminated (based on their 3-6 record they have about a 3% chance of making the playoffs according to statisticians) it's worth spending a moment to reflect on the future and the way forward. Obviously Elway will evaluate everything to decide who to keep and who to fire, hopefully including the coaching staff.

My take is by no means the only possibility, but here goes:

In retrospect, Elway and VJ simply misjudged their team.

After the 2015 SB the Broncos lost Peyton Manning, their only penetrating DL Malik Jackson, the only ILB on the roster who could cover TEs and RBs over the middle in Danny Trevathan. In 2016 Hall of Famer Demarcus Ware was ineffective due to injury and then he retired. This off-season they cut TJ Ward. This is no longer remotely the same defense. They are still good, but have serious deficiencies compared to the 2015 defense. That's what happens to great defenses. They retire, become FAs or are traded and the guys who take their place are just not as good.

Offensively in 2013 the Broncos had Peyton Manning, TE Julius Thomas, slot WR Wes Welker and Knowshon Moreno caught over 60 passes out of the backfield. None of them are on the roster, and their replacements are pretty much useless. The TEs caught only a couple of passes last game combined.

So, the talent level on this team declined precipitously since 2015, but Elway and VJ kept insisting that they were just one or two players (usually OL) away from competing for a SB. We all believed the hype, but it was just hype. Normally, after you lose your HOF QB you SUCK for years. I was always afraid of this during the Manning years, because I remembered what happened after Elway retired. Shanny basically went 8-8 the rest of his career and won 1 playoff game in 10 seasons.

I thought this could happen again - especially if they couldn't find a real Franchise QB. But, there was all this insistence that you can build a team around great defense, and not spend any money on QBs, (or the offense in general outside Sanders & DT), then go to another SB.

Well that was never realistic at all. Nobody outside Denver could ever understand why the Broncos kept insisting that Trevor was a viable franchise QB. But, that's water under the dam.

Now there is no choice:

They have to do what every 6-10 or worse losing team does: REBUILD with a rookie Franchise QB hopefully drafted in the top 10 because those QBs have really the only substantial rate of success. By no means all top 10 first round QBs succeed, but those top guys have the BEST CHANCE of being good.

And as we saw with Paxton, trying to get a bargain late in the first round, or the second round with Brock, or the 7th with Trevor, is just not likely to work and it didn't.

The Broncos wasted 2 years with QB experiments that didn't work out. Now they will have to do what in retrospect they should have done in 2016. Rebuild with younger players.

[Cugel]

This part's controversial, and you may have your own views, but here's mine:

Since the Broncos will be starting a rookie QB next year, not to mention that the team is 5-11 or something, they are not competing for any SBs in 2018, and probably not 2019 either, although Ben Roethlisberger won the SB in his 2nd year I believe. So, it could happen. But, the team is not going from 5-11 to SB Champion with a rookie QB and not a lot of new talent.

Because the next point: If you are rebuilding with a rookie QB, there's no point going out in FA and getting high priced veterans to compete now. You aren't going to compete now for a Championship anyway. So, there's no point doing next year in FA what they tried to do this year - sign a high priced FA like Calais Campbell, whom they offered $13 M/year only to see Jacksonville offer him $15M. He's had 6 sacks so far this season and is a beast in the middle.

But, the Broncos are going to be dumping salary. The two guys they really need to dump, they can't.

D.T.
Demaryius Thomas signed a 5 year, $70,000,000 contract with the Denver Broncos, including a $11,000,000 signing bonus, $43,500,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $14,000,000. In 2017, Thomas will earn a base salary of $8,500,000 and a signing bonus of $4,000,000, while carrying a cap hit of $12,033,333 and a dead cap value of $19,099,999.

The cap hit to cut or trade him in 2018 would be $15,665,000 so he stays.

Sanders dead cap hit would be $5.3 M and he's their best WR so he stays.

Talib on the other hand will cost $12M next year, and the dead cap hit for releasing him is only $1M so he's probably gone. They could trade him but no team will give high draft picks, if they have to absorb a huge salary too. They will probably wait for the Broncos to cut him so the Broncos won't get much.

They can advance Chris Harris into Talib's spot, while promoting Roby to Harris' spot. They need to draft another CB at some point, and they can try and advance Lorenzo Doss or Brenden Langley into the nickel back slot.

Darian Stewart's dead cap hit is $7.4 M so he probably stays too. They have plenty of help behind him though.

The Broncos need a penetrating pass-rusher DE/DT but will have to find one in the draft rather than FA, because they are hideously expensive if any good - like Calais Campbell getting $15M a year.

They probably won't find an immediate impact player in the draft but will have to develop one, like they did Malik Jackson, who was a 5th rounder -- it took him 3 years before he became the dominating player he became. Gotsis is a nice run defender but can't rush the passer.

They need ILBs to replace Marshall but, his dead cap hit is $6M so they might have to keep him too. Todd Davis is a cap casualty but he's cheap so he might stay.

Again they will probably have to find an ILB in the 2nd or later rounds of the draft, because they will not be big players in FA in a rebuilding year and FAs won't want to come here anyway if the Broncos aren't competitive with a rookie QB.

[BeefStew25]

I’ve typed shorter emails asking for a couple hundred grand.

[Cugel]

On offense they need to replace whoever they can:

QB: Obviously with a top 10 pick they will try and draft an elite QB prospect. Unless of course either Brock or Paxton suddenly starts channeling the ghost of Johnny Unitas. So, no.

They can keep Trevor as the backup since he's the best QB on this rotten roster of stiffs. They might keep either Paxton or Chad Kelly as the #3 backup, and Osweiler is a FA who will be gone.

They need a slot WR but they have DeAngelo Henderson who was their most impressive offensive threat during the pre-season only to disappear during the regular season. He hasn't even dressed. So, they can insert him and develop him along with the rookie.

They need a TE who can catch, but they have Jake Butt coming back next year so he can learn on the job too.

They need a RT of course, but will have to draft one, probably in the second round. Any FA RT will be about as costly as Watson, without being any better.


Riley Reiff signed a 5 year, $58,750,000 contract with the Minnesota Vikings, including a $11,000,000 signing bonus, $26,300,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $11,750,000. In 2017, Reiff will earn a base salary of $6,200,000, a signing bonus of $11,000,000 and a workout bonus of $100,000, while carrying a cap hit of $8,500,000 and a dead cap value of $26,400,000.

As you can see, to get a really good premium RT you have to pay. A LOT. They will have to draft a rookie and develop him. Or try another $6M guy like Watson and hope they get someone who isn't totally horrible. But, most likely they draft a rookie RT in the second or 3rd round.

This offense is not going to be a ton better than this season's with a rookie QB, but they might as well develop together.

There is just no point trying to pretend that you don't have to start over from virtually scratch and totally rebuild. Including the coaching staff.

[Simple Jaded]

I’ve typed shorter emails asking for a couple hundred grand.

Did you get the money?

[BeefStew25]

Did you get the money?

Yes. Let’s date.

[Simple Jaded]

Yes. Let’s date.

**** yeah, Dave will bring the hookers and blow.

[Rick]

**** yeah, Dave will bring the hookers and blow.

I think he was thinking just the two of you...

[Shazam!]

All that reading to rehash the same thing said in 10 other threads and to just say "Denver needs to Draft a QB."

Jesus.

[Mike]

All that reading to rehash the same thing said in 10 other threads and to just say "Denver needs to Draft a QB."

Jesus.

They also need a RT, RG (moving Leary back to LG where he is best), ILB, a CB (to replace Talib), RB, punter, a slot WR.

[Rick]

They also need a RT, RG (moving Leary back to LG where he is best), ILB, a CB (to replace Talib), RB, punter, a slot WR.

They need a true COVERAGE LBer, like Danny T.

RT they will need to draft, RG might be able to find in FA.

CB draft. Would be nice if Langley could fit into that role being that we took him in the third...but not counting on that. Was a reach.

I suspect Booker will be the bell cow next year, CJ will probably not be retained unless they can get him on the cheap. Doubtful, he will probably head to Miami. Henderson "should" get more reps and I would assume they take another RB round 4 or later.

Slot guy...YES. They need a slot guy and they need a pass catching TE. Butt?

Ideally they put Lynch out there and he shows enough growth that they can use the first round pick on a tackle.

[Simple Jaded]

John Brown for Slot WR/PR 2018.

[Cugel]

From John Elway's interview with Dave Logan, Broncos KOA announcer:

1. Paxton will be on the roster next year.

2. Elway is not trotting Paxton out there this year if he's not ready.

Since nobody thinks he's going to be ready this season Logan doesn't think we'll see Paxton this season. They will play it out with Brock, and/or Trevor.

This sounds like another "QB competition" next season.

REMEMBER: My take is like everybody else. The Broncos need to just accept that Paxton is worthless and move on. But Elway keeps trying to "develop" Paxton.

So, it looks like even if they draft a QB we will see a lot more of Paxton next season.

[Davii]

From John Elway's interview with Dave Logan, Broncos KOA announcer:

1. Paxton will be on the roster next year.

2. Elway is not trotting Paxton out there this year if he's not ready.

Since nobody thinks he's going to be ready this season Logan doesn't think we'll see Paxton this season. They will play it out with Brock, and/or Trevor.

This sounds like another "QB competition" next season.

REMEMBER: My take is like everybody else. The Broncos need to just accept that Paxton is worthless and move on. But Elway keeps trying to "develop" Paxton.

So, it looks like even if they draft a QB we will see a lot more of Paxton next season.

The guy is in his second year and has very few live reps. He was tabbed as a 3 year project from the get-go. So, why should they jettison him? Because he's not AHEAD of expectations?

[Cugel]

They need a true COVERAGE LBer, like Danny T.

RT they will need to draft, RG might be able to find in FA.

CB draft. Would be nice if Langley could fit into that role being that we took him in the third...but not counting on that. Was a reach.

I suspect Booker will be the bell cow next year, CJ will probably not be retained unless they can get him on the cheap. Doubtful, he will probably head to Miami. Henderson "should" get more reps and I would assume they take another RB round 4 or later.

Slot guy...YES. They need a slot guy and they need a pass catching TE. Butt?

Ideally they put Lynch out there and he shows enough growth that they can use the first round pick on a tackle.

Carlos Henderson looks like a capable slot WR. Apparently he's not going to get on the field this year.

RT - They could draft a RT of course. But they might try and find a "bargain basement" RT like Menelik Watson, whose team has given up on him.


3/10/2017: Signed a three-year, $18.375 million contract. The deal contains $5.5 million guaranteed -- a $4 million signing bonus and Watson's 2017 base salary. Watson is eligible for annual $500,000 roster bonuses and $125,000 workout bonuses. 2017: $1.5 million, 2018: $5.5 million, 2019: $5.5 million (Club Option), 2020: Free Agent

Watson cost them $6M for 1/2 a season. They would have been better off paying $12M to Reilly Reiff and getting an actually GOOD RT, but there you go.

It's hard to imagine them keeping Watson or Donald Stephenson, but they kept Stephenson this season when not one fan wanted to see him back on the roster.

Elway and company have been making some really strange personnel decisions and virtually none of them have worked out. So, you'd have to say they were bad decisions.

[Rick]

But Elway keeps trying to "develop" Paxton.

I would sure as heck hope we would try and develop a guy we traded up in the first round of the draft to acquire. Or at the very least let him play to see if he is worth continuing to develop.

[Rick]

Carlos Henderson looks like a capable slot WR. Apparently he's not going to get on the field this year.

RT - They could draft a RT of course. But they might try and find a "bargain basement" RT like Menelik Watson, whose team has given up on him.


Watson cost them $6M for 1/2 a season. They would have been better off paying $12M to Reilly Reiff and getting an actually GOOD RT, but there you go.

It's hard to imagine them keeping Watson or Donald Stephenson, but they kept Stephenson this season when not one fan wanted to see him back on the roster.

Elway and company have been making some really strange personnel decisions and virtually none of them have worked out. So, you'd have to say they were bad decisions.

I wouldn't mind them drafting a tackle early and seeing what the athletic Watson can do at guard where he could work in a phone booth.

[Simple Jaded]

Yeah God forbid they actually try to “develop” an undeveloped player, horrible idea.

If they don’t play Lynch this season they have to draft a QB in ‘18 regardless, because the ‘19 QB draft class is garbage.

[Simple Jaded]

I wouldn't mind them drafting a tackle early and seeing what the athletic Watson can do at guard where he could work in a phone booth.

That’s what I’m thinking, move Leary back to LG and give Watson a shot at RG in front of a rookie.

[Cugel]

The guy is in his second year and has very few live reps. He was tabbed as a 3 year project from the get-go. So, why should they jettison him? Because he's not AHEAD of expectations?

Because they will be drafting a top 10 QB, that's why. That guy will instantly vault ahead of Paxton on the depth chart, but he won't be ready to start week 1.

Meanwhile Paxton has virtually no NFL experience and it doesn't appear he will get any this season. So, he can't be their veteran starter unless they are angling to beat out the Browns for that #1 overall pick in 2019.

The obvious assumption is that you keep 3 QBs on the roster. They still need to make a decision about Chad Kelly, whom most fans want to see in action.

Who gets cut? Trevor? He's the only decent quality backup they have. He could go out there and start until the rookie QB is ready.

But, if Paxton is hogging reps with the #1 team this off-season that will only slow the development of the #1 pick. You can't have this indecision at the QB position!

But, they can't just ignore the QB problem and say "well, we're rolling with Paxton and Trevor again!" There will be a fan Revolution if they try that crap. It will get uglier than it's ever been at Mile High next season if they try that. You'll have fans booing in the first half of the home opener.

But, if they draft a QB in the top 10 that guy MUST play. MUST. And that means committing to a rebuilding program.

That makes perfect sense if the team is 5-11. They cannot afford another stupid "QB controversy" because Elway is trying to jam Paxton into the lineup when he just sucks.

My own opinion, based on ALL of NFL history is that if Paxton was ever going to develop, he would have done so by now. What do you expect to change between now and next September? He made ZERO progress during the last off-season after his rookie year. He's awkward and injury prone. And he can't read NFL defenses.

Personally, I'd like to see them jettison him right now, and move on. We've seen enough.

[Cugel]

That’s what I’m thinking, move Leary back to LG and give Watson a shot at RG in front of a rookie.

He'd have to take a monster pay cut to move to G. He's making $7.5M next season if they keep him, and it only costs $2.6 M to cut him. That's much too much for a G. Ron Leary is making $8M but he's an elite Pro-Bowl LEFT G. They only have him playing RG because Max Garcia can't play RG and for some idiot reason they need that loser in the lineup. He's not even the full time starter - Garcia is rotating with Allen Barbre.

Like I said. None of these personnel decisions makes much sense.

But the rest of their Gs are making around $2M which is more in line with their worth.

[Simple Jaded]

No wonder they put Watson on IR with a calf injury, his salary more than doubles next season ... he’s done in Denver.

Btw, it costs them $1.3 M in ‘18 and $1.3 M in ‘19 if they designate him June 1st cap casualty.

[Cugel]

Yeah God forbid they actually try to “develop” an undeveloped player, horrible idea.

If they don’t play Lynch this season they have to draft a QB in ‘18 regardless, because the ‘19 QB draft class is garbage.

There's no point in "developing" TWO QBs at the same time! And one of them will be a top 10 pick! They will only steal reps from each other and slow the development of both. That's what happened with Paxton and Trevor this off-season and it didn't work out, did it?

They need to commit to a QB and develop that guy, giving him all the first team reps. And obviously that cannot be Paxton. They tried that the last 2 seasons and it didn't work out. There is ZERO reason to think he's suddenly going to get good during this off-season!

Now, if they draft a QB they could just let him sit on the bench until he's ready, but if the team is 5-11 there's no point doing that either.

This team will not be competing for anything next season. They will have LESS talent on defense next season than they do now. Offensively their TE and slot WR will be rookies as well. They may not fix the RT spot either. T's are expensive in FA and they will be dumping salary like Aqib Talib's. So they aren't going out and getting an elite RT costing $12M. If they get a bargain basement FA Rt there's no reason to think that guy will be any better than Watson was.

What has hurt this team is trying to "re-boot and not re-build." They need to bite the bullet and just re-build for the long term with a new franchise QB. And they cannot commit to Paxton obviously.

[Cugel]

No wonder they put Watson on IR with a calf injury, his salary more than doubles next season ... he’s done in Denver.

Btw, it costs them $1.3 M in ‘18 and $1.3 M in ‘19 if they designate him June 1st cap casualty.

Agreed. I think he's toast in Denver. They gambled he could stay healthy for an entire season after he missed over 1/2 his NFL starts over his career. And it didn't work. No need to repeat that mistake.

But, it does leave a gaping hole at RT. A rookie might fill it, but they will be drafting in the top 10. They can't take a RT with a top 10 pick even if they didn't draft a QB.

[Simple Jaded]

Agreed. I think he's toast in Denver. They gambled he could stay healthy for an entire season after he missed over 1/2 his NFL starts over his career. And it didn't work. No need to repeat that mistake.

But, it does leave a gaping hole at RT. A rookie might fill it, but they will be drafting in the top 10. They can't take a RT with a top 10 pick even if they didn't draft a QB.

Sure they can, they can even take a LG (Nelson) Top 10 and sign Nate Solder to play RT.

The Broncos play in the most brutal division for RT’s in the NFL, you can absolutely take a RT in the Top 10, and probably SHOULD.

[tripp]

Why are we keeping up with the narrative that Paxton is gone after this year? He's still got another 2 years here doesn't he? Makes no sense. Brock is gone, maybe Chad gets cut in off-season, maybe we trade Siemian for a 4th to a desperate team, Idk, depends on the draft I guess. But Paxton is here for a while, regardless if he plays or not.

[Cugel]

Sure they can, they can even take a LG (Nelson) Top 10 and sign Nate Solder to play RT.

The Broncos play in the most brutal division for RT’s in the NFL, you can absolutely take a RT in the Top 10, and probably SHOULD.

No way. Top 10 picks are for elite players. Any T taken that high must start at LT. And they just drafted Bolles to play that spot. They don't use that high a pick on a RT!

Of course, they could draft a LT and move Bolles to RT. But, then who will start at QB? Trevor? Paxton?

Barf!

[tripp]

No way. Top 10 picks are for elite players. Any T taken that high must start at LT. And they just drafted Bolles to play that spot. They don't use that high a pick on a RT!

Of course, they could draft a LT and move Bolles to RT. But, then who will start at QB? Trevor? Paxton?

Barf!

I have no problem with drafting a tackle with a top 10 pick, and giving a kings ransom to Cousins.

[underrated29]

I wouldnt do either of those.

I would draft a Joey Bosa type player with our top 10 pick. If we have to move up to get him, then do it! We need another pass rusher full time to keep Von from getting double and triple teamed....That is my target for a 1st rd pick! Aaron donald, Joey Bosa, I do not care but get someone like that! That is what we need.

We can find a perfectly fine T in the 2nd round. Cam Robinson, probably the best tackle in the draft last year went to the cheifs? in the second round. Hes a boss!!

Next year I bet you anything it will be: Brock, Pax, Chad as the 3 qbs battling it out. I have money on The Chad! -if that is the case, then we still have 3rd rd + com picks to find us a CB, G, ILB, WR, Rb, TE.....And Free Agency to boot. We know that Talib is gone, so is CJ, so likely is Shaq Barrett, and Both RT (stephenson and Watson). So CB, RB, and T get moved up the priority list. Pass rush is key imo. Our defense is lacking because of that! We dont have the sacks or turnovers. WHy does Jacksonville have such a good D right now? How are their ILBs? They are getting sacks and turnovers. We are not.

[Freyaka]

From John Elway's interview with Dave Logan, Broncos KOA announcer:

1. Paxton will be on the roster next year.

2. Elway is not trotting Paxton out there this year if he's not ready.

Since nobody thinks he's going to be ready this season Logan doesn't think we'll see Paxton this season. They will play it out with Brock, and/or Trevor.

This sounds like another "QB competition" next season.

REMEMBER: My take is like everybody else. The Broncos need to just accept that Paxton is worthless and move on. But Elway keeps trying to "develop" Paxton.

So, it looks like even if they draft a QB we will see a lot more of Paxton next season.

That's so disgusting...Elway is going to try and force Paxton on us next year as the starter. I bet you anything we don't draft a QB until mid to late rounds next year...

[Tbolt]

The writing is already on the wall. We are not drafting a QB regardless where we fall in the draft order. Well get a healthy dose of Paxton next year, and my guess is Brock as the backup if he takes backup money. Trevor will be gone. Well get year two of the VaJ experiment. I don't think Chad Kelly is even a consideration as anything but maybe a developmental practice squad guy.

[Hawgdriver]

The writing is already on the wall. We are not drafting a QB regardless where we fall in the draft order. Well get a healthy dose of Paxton next year, and my guess is Brock as the backup if he takes backup money. Trevor will be gone. Well get year two of the VaJ experiment. I don't think Chad Kelly is even a consideration as anything but maybe a developmental practice squad guy.

Denver will draft a QB if there is a guy they like at their spot, or within reach.

[BigDaddyBronco]

The guy is in his second year and has very few live reps. He was tabbed as a 3 year project from the get-go. So, why should they jettison him? Because he's not AHEAD of expectations?

As long as Elway doesn't pass on drafting a QB because Paxton has potential. Then it's just Elways ego getting in the way.

[BigDaddyBronco]

I have no problem with drafting a tackle with a top 10 pick, and giving a kings ransom to Cousins.

Sounds like a better chance of success than hoping Paxton pans out or that we get a rookie QB that isn't a bust. Given Elways draft record for QB's.

[Cugel]

The writing is already on the wall. We are not drafting a QB regardless where we fall in the draft order. Well get a healthy dose of Paxton next year, and my guess is Brock as the backup if he takes backup money. Trevor will be gone. Well get year two of the VaJ experiment. I don't think Chad Kelly is even a consideration as anything but maybe a developmental practice squad guy.

There is just no way that happens. None. It would be a complete waste of two more seasons. What if Paxton never develops? He hasn't up till now, and there no reason to think he ever will, based on any evidence of anything we've seen from him. Then you threw away the chance to get a Franchise QB.

No, they will keep Paxton, but they are definitely drafting a QB. If the rookie turns out to be like DeShaun Watson, fine, he starts. If he's a disappointment in his rookie season like Paxton, they always have Trevor and Paxton to turn to.

[Cugel]

Sounds like a better chance of success than hoping Paxton pans out or that we get a rookie QB that isn't a bust. Given Elways draft record for QB's.

I'd agree, but #1 Cousins is probably staying in DC. They will look like complete idiots if they let him walk. HE forced their hand by signing the franchise tender the last 2 seasons. It was a complicated game of chicken in which Cousins totally outmaneuvered Dan Snyder.

They didn't want to commit to paying him $19M a year (which he said publicly he would sign a long term deal for). Then he went out and played well again. Now he will command $25M a year.

Will Elway pay that? Probably not. Will some other team? Yes.

You might be right in thinking he'd be overpaid at $25M. That's more than Russell Wilson got for leading the Seahawks to 2 SBs. Right now we don't know that Cousins will be any good in the playoffs.

I would not complain if Elway did it though. I just don't expect it. This team is a 5-11 rebuilding team. There's no point fooling themselves any more.

THe defense is no longer elite. Still good, but they lost Malik Jackson, Danny Trevathan, TJ Ward and DeMarcus Ware, and have not replaced any of those guys with comparable talent.

The offense is totally offensive.

Time to start over. It's going to happen anyway, they need to start now. Dump salary, and rebuild. WITH an elite prospect franchise QB. NOT Paxton, Trevor, Osweiler or any other stiff on the roster.

[Simple Jaded]

No way. Top 10 picks are for elite players. Any T taken that high must start at LT. And they just drafted Bolles to play that spot. They don't use that high a pick on a RT!

Of course, they could draft a LT and move Bolles to RT. But, then who will start at QB? Trevor? Paxton?

Barf!

You haven't been paying attention, RT's go in the Top 10 now, because RT is just as hard to play as LT. Nelson is elite.

[Simple Jaded]

That's so disgusting...Elway is going to try and force Paxton on us next year as the starter. I bet you anything we don't draft a QB until mid to late rounds next year...

Force PL on us? You mean like he did this season? And last season?