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View Full Version : Elway's 7 drafts on the offensive side of the ball



foco
10-17-2017, 05:23 PM
I was having a conversation with my boys about how our offensive can consistently be this bad. This question popped up in that conversation: Name the top 5 offensive players John Elway has drafted in the 7 drafts he's had since taking over the team. With the new CBA, drafted players locked into their 4 year deals are the clear building blocks teams have used to build good squads so don't count UFAs or free agent acquisitions. I'll go first:

1. Matt Paradis (even though we cut him to put him on the practice squad and lost his 4 year deal)
2. Julius Thomas (even though Elway AND Xanders said after the draft that Xanders "pounded the table" for him)
3. Trevor siemian? (clearly not the future for us at the position)
4. Garret Bolles? (just because he's the first lineman we've drafted other than paradis to not be terrible)
5. Virgil Green????!!!!

How in the world has he acquired virtually nothing other than a center on the offensive side of the ball through 7 drafts????!!!!!

Here's a list of every offensive player he's drafted with the rounds listed:

2011

2nd Orlando Franklin
4th Julius Thomas
7th Virgil Green
7th Jeremy Beal

2012

2nd Brock Osweiler
3rd Ronnie hillman
4th Phillip Blake

2013

2nd Montae Ball
5th Tavarres king
6th vinston Painter
7th Zac Dysert

2014

2nd Cody Latimer
3rd Michael Schofield
6th Matt Paradis

2015

2nd Ty Sambraillo
3rd Jeff heuerman
4th Max Garcia
7th Trevor Siemian

2016

1st Paxton Lynch
4th Devontae Booker
5th Connor Mcgovern
6th Andy Janovich

2017

1st Garret Bolles
3rd Carlos Henderson
5th Jake Butt
5th Isaah Mckenzie
6th De'Angelo Henderson
7th Chad Kelly

weazel
10-17-2017, 07:32 PM
yep... drafting at the back-end of the round every year will hinder your drafts for sure. He should have tanked every year and got one of the top 3 picks in each draft. ...championship!

Slick
10-17-2017, 08:06 PM
Welcome, light bulb!

foco
10-17-2017, 08:27 PM
yep... drafting at the back-end of the round every year will hinder your drafts for sure. He should have tanked every year and got one of the top 3 picks in each draft. ...championship!

That would actually be a good snarky point if the Steelers and Patriots front offices didn't exist. Must be some sort of East Coast magic.

Northman
10-18-2017, 04:21 AM
Yea, you dont necessarily have to draft in the top 10 every year to acquire talented players. You just have to be smarter with your choices.

weazel
10-18-2017, 09:18 AM
That would actually be a good snarky point if the Steelers and Patriots front offices didn't exist. Must be some sort of East Coast magic.

The Pat's... So you're saying the Broncos should be lucky and just happen to draft one of the best QB's of all time in the 7th round and then have that QB take much less money than he is worth? Great plan! Yeah how smart the Pat's were, they knew he was that good and waited for the 7th round to draft him. You know the Pat's were the worst ******* team in the league and had 90% of their stadium empty for a decade before that, right?

The Steelers? Since Elway has been here what have the Steelers done that the Broncos haven't?

Get the **** outta here with that ******* nonsense.






Yea, you dont necessarily have to draft in the top 10 every year to acquire talented players. You just have to be smarter with your choices.

agreed

wayninja
10-18-2017, 09:26 AM
So the point you are making is that Elway hasn't done enough with the offense. How'd he do on Defense?

foco
10-18-2017, 03:51 PM
So the point you are making is that Elway hasn't done enough with the offense. How'd he do on Defense?

He's done amazing. outside of the 2014 free agency bonanza (ward, talib, and ware), he's built probably the best Denver defense ever fielded through the draft. A defense that basically single handedly brought us a super bowl in an era where that should be impossible. I guess i was just bringing it up because I didn't realize exactly how poorly we had drafted on the offensive side of the ball till I went through all the drafts to look at it.

foco
10-18-2017, 04:39 PM
The Pat's... So you're saying the Broncos should be lucky and just happen to draft one of the best QB's of all time in the 7th round and then have that QB take much less money than he is worth? Great plan! Yeah how smart the Pat's were, they knew he was that good and waited for the 7th round to draft him. You know the Pat's were the worst ******* team in the league and had 90% of their stadium empty for a decade before that, right?

The Steelers? Since Elway has been here what have the Steelers done that the Broncos haven't?

Get the **** outta here with that ******* nonsense.



The point was that other franchises have drafted later in the rounds and still came away with talent. Elway has just not done that on the offensive side of the ball, and that is the principle reason we're not a contender now...even though an average offense would put us in contention with the defense we have.

The patriots are more than just Brady (who was drafted in the 6th not the 7th btw). They've now drafted basically two whole above average to great offensive lines since winning their first SB, as well as Gronk, 2 backup qbs who've they've flipped for better assets, and a 3rd backup QB who they turned down the #12 overall pick for this last draft.

The Steelers have drafted Smith-Schuster, Leveon Bell, Antonio Brown, Markus wheaton, decastro, martavius Bryant, and emmanuel sanders since they won the SB. Antonio Brown and Emmanuel were both drafted in 2010, the year after the won the SB and had the last pick in the draft. ya know, since that was your point. 4 of those are Pro Bowlers. Julius Thomas is the only offensive Pro bowler Elway has ever drafted.

Despite his obvious strength at talent evaluation on defense (which has become the team's identity now), I just didn't realize exactly how poorly we've drafted on the offensive side of the ball in the last 7 years. And it's not a lack of effort, we've put over 45% of our draft picks into offensive players; they've just not worked out. That, more than anything in my opinion, is the principle reason we've been a shit show on offense for nearly 3 years now. Since the rams game in 2014. And as much as I love Elway (and wouldn't trade him for the majority of front offices in the league because of his success in many other areas), I think he's kinda been given a free pass from media and fans for how bad he's done on that side of the ball.

But don't bother trying to actually research anything for an opinion....or having a discussion. I see the "blue" forum hasn't changed much since I left. I'll just take the discussion to the other forums. Good to see you're still on here though, North.

wayninja
10-18-2017, 04:39 PM
Yeah, I would go so far as to say overall he's done amazing. His biggest areas of weakness clearly are QB and OL. And the former is easier to explain away as TONS of QB picks end up being busts. It's difficult for anyone to draft that position effectively/easily without trading up or being perennial losers.

BroncoJoe
10-18-2017, 04:46 PM
But don't bother trying to actually research anything for an opinion....or having a discussion. I see the "blue" forum hasn't changed much since I left. I'll just take the discussion to the other forums.

You should stick around, but grow a set of balls first.

Slick
10-18-2017, 04:49 PM
No te vayas foco.

foco
10-18-2017, 05:00 PM
You should stick around, but grow a set of balls first.

I'm a 30yr Navy man. I've worked with a lot of "bro balled" dudes. I guess I just can't keep up y'all's internet balls....or least want to in my free time. It's cool though. This is America; we all have options.

OrangeHoof
10-18-2017, 05:36 PM
The Texans have shown y'all the blueprint. Sign a worthless quarterback for $72 million then trade him and a 2nd round pick to an idiot team like the Browns. Then you trade the same idiot team your first pick and draft a superstar quarterback. Meanwhile, the worthless quarterback gets cut and signs with his original team for a lot less.

Rick Smith is a genius.

NightTerror218
10-18-2017, 06:40 PM
In a side note bolles is the highest rated OT out of the draft this year so far through 5 games. 40 points above the Alabama OT Robinson.

Hawgdriver
10-18-2017, 06:43 PM
In a side note bolles is the highest rated OT out of the draft this year so far through 5 games. 40 points above the Alabama OT Robinson.

They really crushed the draft at that spot.

Al Wilson 4 Mayor
10-18-2017, 08:10 PM
I wonder if spending a lot of early round picks on kick ass defensive players like Von Miller, Shane Ray, Roby, Derek Wolfe, and Justin Simmons have anything to do with the lack of offensive picks?

Nah, thats silly talk...

BroncoJoe
10-19-2017, 08:00 AM
I'm a 30yr Navy man. I've worked with a lot of "bro balled" dudes. I guess I just can't keep up y'all's internet balls....or least want to in my free time. It's cool though. This is America; we all have options.

Thanks for your service. Sincerely.

NightTrainLayne
10-19-2017, 08:43 AM
I'm a 30yr Navy man. I've worked with a lot of "bro balled" dudes. I guess I just can't keep up y'all's internet balls....or least want to in my free time. It's cool though. This is America; we all have options.

Which forum is the "other" forum for you?

NightTrainLayne
10-19-2017, 08:44 AM
I wonder if spending a lot of early round picks on kick ass defensive players like Von Miller, Shane Ray, Roby, Derek Wolfe, and Justin Simmons have anything to do with the lack of offensive picks?

Nah, thats silly talk...

You beat me to it. I was just going to make that point.

Tbolt
10-19-2017, 09:46 AM
Well, for one, I think people 'over rate' just how knowledgeable sports GM's are in general.

Elway has done a good job managing the cap, and working FA. Can't evaluate/draft the Offensive side of the ball. You would think whatever metric he applies to Defense would work on Offense too, but apparantly it doesn't work that way. Ironically Shanahan was Aces on drafting Offense but completely sucked on the Defensive side. Again, just strange you can be so good on one side of the ball and so bad on the other.

Slick
10-19-2017, 10:08 AM
Coaching and player development is also an issue on the offensive side of the ball. I guess we can blame John for that too since he hires those guys. It really is strange that John hasn't found that same kind of talent on the offensive side. He's had enough drafts to do so at this point.

Finding a solid QB would go a long way to fixing the problem.

NightTrainLayne
10-19-2017, 10:24 AM
Coaching and player development is also an issue on the offensive side of the ball. I guess we can blame John for that too since he hires those guys. It really is strange that John hasn't found that same kind of talent on the offensive side. He's had enough drafts to do so at this point.

Finding a solid QB would go a long way to fixing the problem.

Changing coaching staffs every 2-4 years is really bad for player development. Plus, different schemes call for different players. Our defense has been able to stay fairly stable, while our offense has been overhauled with differing coordinators and Head Coaches about every other year for some time.

Hopefully, VJ is the right hire, and will be here for 8-10 years.

BroncoJoe
10-19-2017, 10:59 AM
I was thinking about this earlier. During his playing days, Elway had to learn offenses, but studied the defense.

Freyaka
10-19-2017, 01:03 PM
But don't bother trying to actually research anything for an opinion....or having a discussion. I see the "blue" forum hasn't changed much since I left. I'll just take the discussion to the other forums. Good to see you're still on here though, North.

Adios Felicia!

Freyaka
10-19-2017, 01:07 PM
Which forum is the "other" forum for you?

If he can't handle blunt criticism of his opinions it isn't the main forums or the Orange Mane lol...

jhns
10-19-2017, 01:35 PM
Just like most everyone else, Elway has trouble evaluating QBs. It's an almost impossible position to judge when trying to draft someone.

I like some of the TEs that he has drafted, but two have injury issues so far. Hopefully Butt comes back healthy as I see him being pretty good.

He has had a lot of trouble drafting o-line. Some of that is constant scheme changes. We have gone from wanting maulers, to small zone blockers, back to wanting more power. I like what I'm seeing from the line now though, minus RT. Bolles is a rookie, and will have his share of mistakes, but LT through RG look like they could be around a while.

Tbolt
10-19-2017, 01:46 PM
The troubling thing is, Elway seems Clueless on how to judge a QB. Remember he wanted to draft Weeden once upon a time too. I really don't think he knows what to look for. The odds of getting bailed out by an established baller again are pretty low.

I'd give him more of a pass on his OL drafting if his FA signings didn't routinely suck as well. Also managed to overdraft Cody Lattimore in one of the deepest WR drafts ever. And a couple high whiffs at RB.

Not that he is going anywhere. Just needs better results.

Cugel
10-19-2017, 05:05 PM
Yea, you dont necessarily have to draft in the top 10 every year to acquire talented players. You just have to be smarter with your choices.

Teams that draft in the top 10 every year lose every year so they get that top 10 draft pick. They also periodically fire their coaches and GMs and then clean house and start over "rebuilding" with new players all the time. It amounts to a scam in which the fans are willing participants, selling "hope for the future." The idea is "we'll suck this year and maybe next but THEN watch out!" Only in year three they realize that the team needs to be torn down again and rebuilt from scratch with a new regime. Rinse and repeat periodically for 15 years and you have the Cleveland Browns.

The Broncos problem is different. They have the team to win a SB right now, but they don't have a franchise QB and not enough weapons on offense to do it. In 2013 when Peyton took the team to a SB, they had 5 weapons: DT and Decker outside, Julius Thomas a monster mismatch at TE, Wes Welker the ideal slot receiver who caught over 100 passes for the Patriots, and if all these were covered in the red zone, they also had Knowshon Moreno catching over 60 passes coming out of the backfield. Oh, and Peyton Manning.

Today, they have a mediocre at best QB, DT and Sanders are good, but there's no TE who can't be covered with a LB, no RB is really a threat to catch 40 let alone 60 passes, (they aren't utilizing Jamaal in this role for some reason), and there's no slot receiver who really threatens defenses. Oh, and the OL is actually worse than that 2013 OL that featured a fill in Clark at LT after Ryan Clady was injured.

Teams have figured out that if you just stuff the Broncos running game they can't do a thing on offense, because the OL can't protect Trevor and for some reason the receivers are not getting consistently open and Trevor is not making defenses pay for blitzing him. Rather the reverse. He's one of the worst QBs in the league when under pressure, which defenses will resort to more and more until the Broncos offense manages to make them pay.

Why all this? Because Elway decided that he wanted the Seattle Seahawks team that beat him in the SB rather than the Peyton led juggernaut, and started spending more and more on defense. Just look at the salary structure of the Broncos and you'll see what I mean:

#1- Von Miller - 6 years $114M
#2 - D.T. 5 years $70M
#3 - Aqib Talib - 6 yrs. $57M
#4 - Chris Harris - 5 years $42 M
#5 - all the QBs on the roster - $3M.

The secondary alone is getting $34M in 2017, the highest paid unit on the team. The No-Fly Zone. The LBs led by Miller are second with $34M this year. TEs are getting combined $3M and might not be worth that until Jake Butts learns to start.

Trevor Siemian is getting $628,000 and is worth almost every penny. :rolleyes:

Elway decided to spend his money on defense. The result: the defense is great, the offense is putrid. The team is mediocre. It resulted in a championship in 2015 but that will never happen again for the Broncos. To repeat they need a franchise QB and are no closer to getting that than they were when Peyton Retired 2 years ago.

BroncoJoe
10-19-2017, 05:10 PM
I was thinking about this earlier. During his playing days, Elway had to learn offenses, but studied the defense.

I can't believe this didn't get any comments.

Perhaps he is more in tune with great defensive players than offensive because he had to study them more?

Cugel
10-19-2017, 05:15 PM
Well, for one, I think people 'over rate' just how knowledgeable sports GM's are in general.

Elway has done a good job managing the cap, and working FA. Can't evaluate/draft the Offensive side of the ball. You would think whatever metric he applies to Defense would work on Offense too, but apparantly it doesn't work that way. Ironically Shanahan was Aces on drafting Offense but completely sucked on the Defensive side. Again, just strange you can be so good on one side of the ball and so bad on the other.

Shanahan didn't draft his great teams, he got them via FA. In those days few teams were competing for FAs since it was new and lots of teams insisted on drafting and developing their own players instead of paying established veterans. Shanahan was able to sign HOF LT Gary Zimmer, pass rushing DE Neil Smith, and LB Big Alfred Williams, FAs like Tony Jones, Ed McCaffrey, etc., etc. Today doing that would bust the bank. No team could afford it.

When his original players aged and retired Shanahan was unable to find equal quality replacements in FA because other teams were competing with him and driving up the prices, and because the team was mediocre, so penalized to always pick in the middle of the draft. He failed spectacularly with various picks too which hastened his departure. But, his biggest failure was the failure to draft a QB who was able to save his job.

Simple Jaded
10-27-2017, 11:15 PM
Orlando Franklin was a good pick, I’d take him now and plug him in at LG.

Jeremy Beal was a DE.

MOtorboat
11-26-2017, 12:30 AM
Klis with the troll job:

http://www.9news.com/mobile/article/amp/sports/numbers-say-elways-draft-production-among-nfls-best/494620918

Simple Jaded
11-26-2017, 05:34 AM
Counting games started/played? Lame.

Btw, some have always been pointing out the fact that the P*triots suck at drafting too.

NightTrainLayne
11-26-2017, 11:13 AM
Counting games started/played? Lame.


I know right? Just because a draft pick never played doesn't mean he was a bad draft pick!

Cugel
11-26-2017, 06:52 PM
That would actually be a good snarky point if the Steelers and Patriots front offices didn't exist. Must be some sort of East Coast magic.

The Steelers and Patriots are perfect examples of how the NFL works. They have Hall of Fame QBs. If you have a HOF QB you can make up for a lot of misses in both draft and FA.

Notice that when Peyton was here, the OL looked a lot better than now? Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch don't make anybody look better than they are: quite the reverse.

Well, the Paxton Lynch era is now officially at an end. They can't force the poor lad out there again after this performance! He is just totally beaten down and broken. They might as well release him, although I'm sure Elway will try and keep him around for another season, holding down a backup QB spot. But, he will be praying he never has to get in a game.

Cugel
11-26-2017, 07:16 PM
Klis with the troll job:

http://www.9news.com/mobile/article/amp/sports/numbers-say-elways-draft-production-among-nfls-best/494620918

Klis picked a single statistic: the number of games the draft picks have played. That's not totally irrelevant but the number of games started doesn't tell you anything about how good that player was. A below average player who doesn't have any competition on a bad team starts for 2 years = 32 games "started". But, because he sucks that doesn't mean much.

A more useful measure is how many first and second round players Elway drafted have become dependable starters (more than 2 seasons starting).

His draft history isn't great, but it isn't terrible either if you look only at first and second round picks:

2017:
LT Garrett Bolles - Bolles sucks, but he's a rookie they threw into the fire at LT. He'll get better with more experience.
DE DeMarcus Walker - Walker hasn't seen the field, but he's promising.

2016:
Paxton Lynch - Paxton was a bust, but he was highly regarded.
Adam Gotsis - Gotsis looked useless last year but is starting this season.

2015:
Shane Ray - Not playing well this year, but he has shown tremendous promise and he is starting
Ty Sambrailo - Sambrailo's career in Denver was shortened by injuries. Still a busted 2nd round pick.

2014:
Bradley Roby - Starting nickel CB so a success there.
Cody Latimer - FAilure as a #3 WR but special teams ace, so a disappointment as a 2nd rounder, but not useless.

2013:
Sylvester Williams - Both totally useless.
Montee Ball - Both totally useless. Worst Elway draft!

2012:
Derek Wolfe (2nd)
Brock Osweiler - Once again, a useless bust, but that's not surprising given his draft position late in the 2nd round. Taking a QB there is trying to pull off an inside straight in poker. Great if it works, but normally it doesn't. The Broncos needed a QB and nobody thought to take Russell Wilson until the 3rd round.

2011:
Von Miller - Obviously Hall of Fame career
Rahim Moore - Bust and out of football
Orlando Franklin - He started the last 2 years for the Chargers after being cut by Denver, and is currently backing up in DC. It's strange calling him a "bust" when he's a better player than anybody on the current Broncos OL at RT.

So, to sum up, Elway "wasted" two picks on QBs when Denver needed a QB. But, neither QB taken was badly thought of by other teams. About 1/2 of all 1st round QBs bust.

Rahim Moore and Montee Ball were terrible 2nd round picks. There are lots of other players taken ahead of Broncos draft picks, who would have been better.

But, all in all it looks like Elway's drafting was a "C" - if you ignore the QB busts. And it's proving impossible to predict when these QBs are going to be any good nowadays.