Comparing Siemian's first year to other first years since 2007

[Tned]

Ok, some of us seem to have different views of how Siemian's first year stacks up compared to other first year starters. Since the "new passing rules" keep being thrown up, I chose 2007 as the starting point, so we have a decade of first year starters to compare Siemian to.

So, here's where Siemian ranks in all the major categories among the 45 QBs that had their first year starting in the last decade as either rookies or second year players. To be clear, some of the names on this list of 45 QBs are: Prescott, Bridgewater, Wilson, Foles, Cutler, Wentz, Mariota, Ryan, Flacco, Newton, Winston, Car, Luck, Stafford, Ryan and others.

Siemian's rank (out of 45 first year starters over last decade) in each category (stats compiled using database at: https://www.pro-football-reference.com)

Rating = 11th
Yards = 10th
Y/Attemp = 15th
Y/Game = 4th
TDs = 14th (tie)
INT% = 6th
Wins = 10th (tie)
4th QTR Comebacks 4th (tie)
300 Yrd Games = 3rd (tie)
Completion % = 19th

Passer Rating

Rank - Player Rate
1 - Nick Foles 119.2
2 - Dak Prescott 104.9
3 - Robert Griffin 102.4
4 - Russell Wilson 100
5 - Cody Kessler 92.3
6 - Marcus Mariota 91.5
7 - Jay Cutler 88.1
8 - Matt Ryan 87.7
9 - Teddy Bridgewater 85.2
10 - Austin Davis 85.1
11 - Trevor Siemian 84.6
12 - Cam Newton 84.5
13 - Jameis Winston 84.2
14 - Mike Glennon 83.9
15 - Derek Anderson 82.5
16 - Andy Dalton 80.4
17 - Joe Flacco 80.3
18 - Carson Wentz 79.3
19 - Case Keenum 78.2
20 - EJ Manuel 77.7
21 - Jason Campbell 77.6
22 - JaMarcus Russell 77.1
23 - Derek Carr 76.6
24 - Andrew Luck 76.5
25 - Sam Bradford 76.5
26 - Ryan Tannehill 76.1
27 - Tyler Thigpen 76
28 - Chad Henne 75.2
29 - Colt McCoy 74.5
30 - Jake Locker 74
31 - Tim Tebow 72.9
32 - Brandon Weeden 72.6
33 - Vince Young 71.1
34 - Tarvaris Jackson 70.8
35 - Trent Edwards 70.4
36 - Christian Ponder 70.1
37 - Blake Bortles 69.5
38 - Curtis Painter 66.6
39 - Geno Smith 66.5
40 - Blaine Gabbert 65.4
41 - Mark Sanchez 63
42 - Matthew Stafford 61
43 - Kellen Clemens 60.9
44 - Josh Freeman 59.8
45 - Jimmy Clausen 58.4


Yards

Rank - Player Yds
1 - Andrew Luck 4374
2 - Cam Newton 4051
3 - Jameis Winston 4042
4 - Derek Anderson 3787
5 - Carson Wentz 3782
6 - Dak Prescott 3667
7 - Sam Bradford 3512
8 - Jay Cutler 3497
9 - Matt Ryan 3440
10 - Trevor Siemian 3401
11 - Andy Dalton 3398
12 - Brandon Weeden 3385
13 - Ryan Tannehill 3294
14 - Derek Carr 3270
15 - Robert Griffin 3200
16 - Russell Wilson 3118
17 - Geno Smith 3046
18 - Joe Flacco 2971
19 - Teddy Bridgewater 2919
20 - Blake Bortles 2908
21 - Nick Foles 2891
22 - Chad Henne 2878
23 - Marcus Mariota 2818
24 - Jason Campbell 2700
25 - Mike Glennon 2608
26 - Tyler Thigpen 2608
27 - Vince Young 2546
28 - Mark Sanchez 2444
29 - JaMarcus Russell 2423
30 - Matthew Stafford 2267
31 - Blaine Gabbert 2214
32 - Jake Locker 2176
33 - Austin Davis 2001
34 - EJ Manuel 1972
35 - Tarvaris Jackson 1911
36 - Josh Freeman 1855
37 - Christian Ponder 1853
38 - Case Keenum 1760
39 - Tim Tebow 1729
40 - Trent Edwards 1630
41 - Colt McCoy 1576
42 - Jimmy Clausen 1558
43 - Curtis Painter 1541
44 - Kellen Clemens 1529
45 - Cody Kessler 1380


Yards per attempt


Rank - Player Y/A
1 - Nick Foles 9.12
2 - Robert Griffin 8.14
3 - Dak Prescott 7.99
4 - Matt Ryan 7.93
5 - Russell Wilson 7.93
6 - Cam Newton 7.84
7 - Marcus Mariota 7.62
8 - Jameis Winston 7.56
9 - Jay Cutler 7.49
10 - Teddy Bridgewater 7.26
11 - Derek Anderson 7.19
12 - Colt McCoy 7.1
13 - Cody Kessler 7.08
14 - Austin Davis 7.05
15 - Trevor Siemian 7
16 - Andrew Luck 6.98
17 - Case Keenum 6.96
18 - Joe Flacco 6.94
19 - Jake Locker 6.93
20 - Geno Smith 6.88
21 - Ryan Tannehill 6.81
22 - Mark Sanchez 6.71
23 - Vince Young 6.66
24 - Andy Dalton 6.59
25 - JaMarcus Russell 6.58
26 - Brandon Weeden 6.55
27 - Tarvaris Jackson 6.5
28 - Jason Campbell 6.47
29 - EJ Manuel 6.44
30 - Josh Freeman 6.4
31 - Chad Henne 6.38
32 - Tim Tebow 6.38
33 - Christian Ponder 6.37
34 - Curtis Painter 6.34
35 - Mike Glennon 6.27
36 - Carson Wentz 6.23
37 - Tyler Thigpen 6.21
38 - Blake Bortles 6.12
39 - Kellen Clemens 6.12
40 - Trent Edwards 6.06
41 - Matthew Stafford 6.01
42 - Sam Bradford 5.95
43 - Derek Carr 5.46
44 - Blaine Gabbert 5.36
45 - Jimmy Clausen 5.21



Yards per game


Rank - Player Y/G
1 - Andrew Luck 273.4
2 - Cam Newton 253.2
3 - Jameis Winston 252.6
4 - Trevor Siemian 242.9
5 - Derek Anderson 236.7
6 - Carson Wentz 236.4
7 - Marcus Mariota 234.8
8 - Dak Prescott 229.2
9 - Matthew Stafford 226.7
10 - Brandon Weeden 225.7
11 - Teddy Bridgewater 224.5
12 - Nick Foles 222.4
13 - Case Keenum 220
14 - Sam Bradford 219.5
15 - Jay Cutler 218.6
16 - Matt Ryan 215
17 - Robert Griffin 213.3
18 - Andy Dalton 212.4
19 - Jason Campbell 207.7
20 - Blake Bortles 207.7
21 - Ryan Tannehill 205.9
22 - Chad Henne 205.6
23 - Derek Carr 204.4
24 - Mike Glennon 200.6
25 - Austin Davis 200.1
26 - Jake Locker 197.8
27 - EJ Manuel 197.2
28 - Colt McCoy 197
29 - Russell Wilson 194.9
30 - Geno Smith 190.4
31 - Tyler Thigpen 186.3
32 - Joe Flacco 185.7
33 - Josh Freeman 185.5
34 - Curtis Painter 171.2
35 - Vince Young 169.7
36 - Christian Ponder 168.5
37 - Trent Edwards 163
38 - Mark Sanchez 162.9
39 - JaMarcus Russell 161.5
40 - Tarvaris Jackson 159.3
41 - Cody Kessler 153.3
42 - Kellen Clemens 152.9
43 - Blaine Gabbert 147.6
44 - Tim Tebow 123.5
45 - Jimmy Clausen 119.8




Touchdowns


Rank - Player TD
1 - Derek Anderson 29
2 - Nick Foles 27
3 - Russell Wilson 26
4 - Andrew Luck 23
5 - Dak Prescott 23
6 - Jameis Winston 22
7 - Cam Newton 21
8 - Derek Carr 21
9 - Jay Cutler 20
10 - Robert Griffin 20
11 - Andy Dalton 20
12 - Marcus Mariota 19
13 - Mike Glennon 19
14 - Trevor Siemian 18
15 - Sam Bradford 18
16 - Tyler Thigpen 18
17 - Carson Wentz 16
18 - Matt Ryan 16
19 - Brandon Weeden 14
20 - Teddy Bridgewater 14
21 - Joe Flacco 14
22 - Matthew Stafford 13
23 - Christian Ponder 13
24 - JaMarcus Russell 13
25 - Jason Campbell 12
26 - Ryan Tannehill 12
27 - Chad Henne 12
28 - Austin Davis 12
29 - Geno Smith 12
30 - Mark Sanchez 12
31 - Blaine Gabbert 12
32 - Tim Tebow 12
33 - Blake Bortles 11
34 - EJ Manuel 11
35 - Jake Locker 10
36 - Josh Freeman 10
37 - Case Keenum 9
38 - Vince Young 9
39 - Tarvaris Jackson 9
40 - Trent Edwards 7
41 - Colt McCoy 6
42 - Curtis Painter 6
43 - Cody Kessler 6
44 - Kellen Clemens 5
45 - Jimmy Clausen 3




Interception %


Rank - Player Int%
1 - Nick Foles 0.63
2 - Dak Prescott 0.87
3 - Cody Kessler 1.03
4 - Robert Griffin 1.27
5 - Derek Carr 2
6 - Trevor Siemian 2.06
7 - Mike Glennon 2.16
8 - JaMarcus Russell 2.17
9 - Tim Tebow 2.21
10 - Carson Wentz 2.31
11 - Case Keenum 2.37
12 - Andy Dalton 2.52
13 - Matt Ryan 2.53
14 - Sam Bradford 2.54
15 - Russell Wilson 2.54
16 - Jason Campbell 2.64
17 - Blaine Gabbert 2.66
18 - Ryan Tannehill 2.69
19 - Marcus Mariota 2.7
20 - Joe Flacco 2.8
21 - Jameis Winston 2.8
22 - Tyler Thigpen 2.86
23 - Andrew Luck 2.87
24 - EJ Manuel 2.94
25 - Trent Edwards 2.97
26 - Teddy Bridgewater 2.99
27 - Jay Cutler 3
28 - Jimmy Clausen 3.01
29 - Chad Henne 3.1
30 - Austin Davis 3.17
31 - Brandon Weeden 3.29
32 - Cam Newton 3.29
33 - Jake Locker 3.5
34 - Blake Bortles 3.58
35 - Derek Anderson 3.61
36 - Curtis Painter 3.7
37 - Kellen Clemens 4
38 - Colt McCoy 4.05
39 - Tarvaris Jackson 4.08
40 - Vince Young 4.45
41 - Christian Ponder 4.47
42 - Geno Smith 4.74
43 - Matthew Stafford 5.31
44 - Mark Sanchez 5.49
45 - Josh Freeman 6.21

[Tned]

Here's the rest:

Wins


Rank - Player W L
1 - Dak Prescott 13 3
2 - Russell Wilson 11 5
3 - Matt Ryan 11 5
4 - Andrew Luck 11 5
5 - Joe Flacco 11 5
6 - Derek Anderson 10 5
7 - Robert Griffin 9 6
8 - Andy Dalton 9 7
9 - Vince Young 9 6
10 - Nick Foles 8 2
11 - Trevor Siemian 8 6
12 - Tarvaris Jackson 8 4
13 - Geno Smith 8 8
14 - Mark Sanchez 8 7
15 - Jay Cutler 7 9
16 - Tim Tebow 7 4
17 - Ryan Tannehill 7 9
18 - Carson Wentz 7 9
19 - Chad Henne 7 6
20 - Sam Bradford 7 9
21 - Cam Newton 6 10
22 - Jameis Winston 6 10
23 - Teddy Bridgewater 6 6
24 - Jason Campbell 6 7
25 - JaMarcus Russell 5 10
26 - Brandon Weeden 5 10
27 - Trent Edwards 5 4
28 - Mike Glennon 4 9
29 - Jake Locker 4 7
30 - EJ Manuel 4 6
31 - Blaine Gabbert 4 10
32 - Marcus Mariota 3 9
33 - Austin Davis 3 5
34 - Derek Carr 3 13
35 - Blake Bortles 3 10
36 - Kellen Clemens 3 5
37 - Josh Freeman 3 6
38 - Colt McCoy 2 6
39 - Christian Ponder 2 8
40 - Matthew Stafford 2 8
41 - Tyler Thigpen 1 10
42 - Jimmy Clausen 1 9
43 - Cody Kessler 0 8
44 - Case Keenum 0 8
45 - Curtis Painter 0 8




4th Quarter Comebacks


Rk - Player Year 4th QTR Comback
1 - Dak Prescott 2016 5
2 - Andrew Luck 2012 4
3 - Andy Dalton 2011 4
4 - Trevor Siemian 2016 3
4 - Chad Henne 2009 3
4 - Robert Griffin 2012 3
4 - Russell Wilson 2012 3
4 - Teddy Bridgewater 2014 3
9 - Derek Anderson 2007 2
10 - Geno Smith 2013 2
11 - Jameis Winston 2015 2
12 - Jay Cutler 2007 2
13 - Josh Freeman 2009 2
14 - Marcus Mariota 2015 2
15 - Matt Ryan 2008 2
16 - Mike Glennon 2013 2
17 - Tom Savage 2016 2
18 - Austin Davis 2014 1
19 - Blake Bortles 2014 1
20 - Colin Kaepernick 2012 1
21 - Colt McCoy 2011 1
22 - Derek Carr 2014 1
23 - EJ Manuel 2013 1
24 - Greg McElroy 2012 1
25 - Jason Campbell 2007 1
26 - Joe Flacco 2008 1
27 - Kellen Clemens 2007 1
28 - Kirk Cousins 2012 1
29 - Luke McCown 2007 1
30 - Matt Leinart 2007 1
31 - Nick Foles 2012 1
32 - Stephen McGee 2010 1
33 - Tarvaris Jackson 2007 1
34 - Thaddeus Lewis 2013 1
35 - Trent Edwards 2007 1

300 Yard Games


Rk - Player 300 Yard Games
1 - Andrew Luck 6
2 - Carson Wentz 4
3 - Trevor Siemian 3
3 - Teddy Bridgewater 3
3 - Brandon Weeden 3
3 - Robert Griffin 3
3 - Cam Newton 3
3 - Chad Henne 3
9 - Dak Prescott 2
9 - Jameis Winston 2
9 - Marcus Mariota 2
9 - Austin Davis 2
9 - Jake Locker 2
9 - Nick Foles 2
9 - Andy Dalton 2
9 - John Skelton 2
9 - Matt Ryan 2
9 - Derek Anderson 2
9 - Jay Cutler 2
20 - Cody Kessler 1
21 - Johnny Manziel 1
22 - Kellen Moore 1
23 - Blake Bortles 1
24 - Derek Carr 1
25 - Mike Glennon 1
26 - Ryan Lindley 1
27 - Zach Mettenberger 1
28 - Case Keenum 1
29 - Geno Smith 1
30 - Scott Tolzien 1
31 - Kirk Cousins 1
32 - Ryan Lindley 1
33 - Ryan Tannehill 1
34 - Christian Ponder 1
35 - Colt McCoy 1
36 - T.J. Yates 1
37 - Sam Bradford 1
38 - Tim Tebow 1
39 - Josh Freeman 1
40 - Matthew Stafford 1
41 - Tyler Thigpen 1
42 - Luke McCown 1




Completion %


Rank - Player Cmp%
1 - Dak Prescott 67.76
2 - Robert Griffin 65.65
3 - Cody Kessler 65.64
4 - Teddy Bridgewater 64.43
5 - Russell Wilson 64.12
6 - Nick Foles 64.04
7 - Jay Cutler 63.6
8 - Austin Davis 63.38
9 - Carson Wentz 62.44
10 - Vince Young 62.3
11 - Marcus Mariota 62.16
12 - Matt Ryan 61.06
13 - Colt McCoy 60.81
14 - Chad Henne 60.75
15 - Joe Flacco 60.05
16 - Sam Bradford 60
17 - Cam Newton 59.96
18 - Jason Campbell 59.95
19 - Trevor Siemian 59.47
20 - Mike Glennon 59.38
21 - Blake Bortles 58.95
22 - EJ Manuel 58.82
23 - Jameis Winston 58.32
24 - Ryan Tannehill 58.26
25 - Tarvaris Jackson 58.16
26 - Andy Dalton 58.14
27 - Derek Carr 58.1
28 - Brandon Weeden 57.45
29 - Derek Anderson 56.55
30 - Jake Locker 56.37
31 - Trent Edwards 56.13
32 - Geno Smith 55.76
33 - Tyler Thigpen 54.76
34 - Josh Freeman 54.48
35 - Curtis Painter 54.32
36 - Christian Ponder 54.3
37 - Case Keenum 54.15
38 - Andrew Luck 54.07
39 - Mark Sanchez 53.85
40 - JaMarcus Russell 53.8
41 - Matthew Stafford 53.32
42 - Jimmy Clausen 52.51
43 - Kellen Clemens 52
44 - Blaine Gabbert 50.85
45 - Tim Tebow 46.49

[Tned]

Ok, for each of those categories, here are some of the big names or very high draft picks that rank below Siemian in each category (just eyeballed it so could easily have missed some).

This isn't everyone below him, because on average there were about 32 first year starters worse than him in each category, but instead this is just some selected elite QBs or big name/high draft picks.

Rating better than:
Newton
Winston
Dalton
Flacco
Wentz
Carr
Luck
Tannehill
Stafford
Young
Sanchez


Season Yards
Dalton
Tannehill
Carr
RG3
Wilson
Flacco
Bridgewater
Foles
Mariota
Glennon
Young
Stafford
Sanchez


Yards per attempt
Luck
Flacco
Tannehill
Young
Wenz
Stafford
Carr


Yards per game
Wentz
Mariota
Prescott
Stafford
Bridgewater
Foles
Cutler
Ryan
Dalton
RG3
Tannehill
Carr
Wilson
Flacco
Young
Sanchez


Touchdowns
Bradford
Wentz
Ryan
Bridgewater
Flacco
Stafford
Tannehill
Sanchez
Young


Interception %
Wentz
Dalton
Ryan
Bradford
Wilson
Tannehill
Mariota
Flacco
Winston
Luck
Bridgewater
Cutler
Newton
Young
Stafford


Wins
Sanchez
Cutler
Tannehill
Wentz
Bradford
Newton
Winston
Bridgewater
Russel
Mariota
Carr
Stafford


4th QTR comebacks
Winston
Cutler
Mariota
Ryan
Carr
Flacco


300 yard games
Prescott
Winston
Mariota
Foles
Dalton
Ryan
Cutler
Tannehill
Bradford
Stafford


Completion %
Winston
Tanneill
Dalton
Carr
Luck
Sanchez
Stafford

[iLands]

But Trevor's slowed down a lot since college: https://www.insidenu.com/platform/amp/2014/8/8/5982581/trevor-siemian-northwestern-quarterback

:p

[Tned]

From the Broncos media guide, a few highlights from his season as it relates to best ever in Denver.



Totaled three games with at least 300 yards passing in 2016 to represent the second-high-est total by a quarterback in his first season starting for the Broncos.
Became the first quarterback in NFL history with 300 passing yards, four passing touch-downs and zero interceptions in his first career road start, accomplishing that feat at Cincinnati (9/26/16).
Topped 350 yards passing and three touchdowns without an interception vs. Kansas City (11/27/16) to join Peyton Manning (4x) and John Elway (1x) as the only players in team history to post those numbers in a single game.

[chazoe60]

I like it. Just fix the Brian Griese Syndrome (throwing 2 yards short of the marker on 3rd down) and I'm all in. I actually think T-Sim has a ton of potential.

[Tned]

I like it. Just fix the Brian Griese Syndrome (throwing 2 yards short of the marker on 3rd down) and I'm all in. I actually think T-Sim has a ton of potential.

I'm hoping that was due to scheme, play calling and horrible protection, but regardless, I'm with you on it needing to get better.

[Valar Morghulis]

I am a huge Trevor fan, and I taste the rainbow everyday...... But I can't help wonder how many of those " Good" quarterbacks he graded out higher than, were just on really bad teams?

He had bad protection last year, but did have a Superbowl calibre defense and also elite receivers

What's your thoughts T?

[Hawgdriver]

It makes a difference. Someone mentioned Steve Young and Tampa Bay. His record with them was like 5-25, but with SF it was something like 150-25, ridiculous. Stats mismatched, too.

[topscribe]

I am a huge Trevor fan, and I taste the rainbow everyday...... But I can't help wonder how many of those " Good" quarterbacks he graded out higher than, were just on really bad teams?

He had bad protection last year, but did have a Superbowl calibre defense and also elite receivers

What's your thoughts T?
Trevor had two elite receivers, but beyond them the receiving corps was subpar. He had no true
slot receiver and little help from the TEs. And don't forget that offensive offensive line (if you get
my drift) and weak running game.

[Tned]

I am a huge Trevor fan, and I taste the rainbow everyday...... But I can't help wonder how many of those " Good" quarterbacks he graded out higher than, were just on really bad teams?

He had bad protection last year, but did have a Superbowl calibre defense and also elite receivers

What's your thoughts T?

In terms of wins, absolutely, the defense clearly helped. On the rest, the Broncos pass protection and 27th ranked rushing attack did little to help Siemian.

While DT and Sanders are elite, the slot and tight ends were far from elite, and the horrible pass protection and lack of run game meant he was hard pressed to have the time to get the ball to the only two elite guys on offense.

It's also worth noting that while they were defending Supet Bowl champs, the defense was many catalyst for super bowl win, not offense. They didn't hand Siemian the keys to a Ferrari.

[Tned]

Trevor had two elite receivers, but beyond them the receiving corps was subpar. He had no true
slot receiver and little help from the TEs. And don't forget that offensive offensive line (if you get
my drift) and weak running game.

Damn, you scooped all my points as I was pecking them out on a tablet while in bed. :sad:

[topscribe]

Damn, you scooped all my points as I was pecking them out on a tablet while in bed. :sad:
Check your MHS. :D

[Hawgdriver]

Trevor had two elite receivers, but beyond them the receiving corps was subpar. He had no true
slot receiver and little help from the TEs. And don't forget that offensive offensive line (if you get
my drift) and weak running game.

ESPN or NFL.com had Denver's receiving corps ranked in the top 5 last year. I get your point, Norwood, Fowler, Sunshine, Green, and Booker weren't pro-bowl options. Darby had a few targets late in the season but it was a thimble in an ocean. But when you balance it out, most QBs would love to have elite options 1 and 2 at the expense of average to below average options 3-5. I just don't see this as a worthwhile caveat for last year, even if what you say is technically valid.

[Hawgdriver]

The run game, pass pro, and injury are all relevant factors. Let's hope we aren't making excuses this year, eh?

[topscribe]

ESPN or NFL.com had Denver's receiving corps ranked in the top 5 last year. I get your point, Norwood, Fowler, Sunshine, Green, and Booker weren't pro-bowl options. Darby had a few targets late in the season but it was a thimble in an ocean. But when you balance it out, most QBs would love to have elite options 1 and 2 at the expense of average to below average options 3-5. I just don't see this as a worthwhile caveat for last year, even if what you say is technically valid.
Well, what that did was to allow the defense to double DT and E. Many times, it seems,
I was wondering why they weren't getting open more. It's because single coverage on
the others was sufficient. Plus the fact they didn't have to put a safety in the box to
cover the "running game."



The run game, pass pro, and injury are all relevant factors. Let's hope we aren't making excuses this year, eh?
Excuses are attempts to explain reasons for failures. In Trevor's case we are pointing out
his successes despite those disadvantages. I view them as commendations.

[Tned]

ESPN or NFL.com had Denver's receiving corps ranked in the top 5 last year. I get your point, Norwood, Fowler, Sunshine, Green, and Booker weren't pro-bowl options. Darby had a few targets late in the season but it was a thimble in an ocean. But when you balance it out, most QBs would love to have elite options 1 and 2 at the expense of average to below average options 3-5. I just don't see this as a worthwhile caveat for last year, even if what you say is technically valid.

Would most kill for the protection and running game from last year?

Broncos have replaced at minimum three of their starting o line and it looks like Paradis might be the only returning starter, due to how bad the line was last year.

I really think it's reaching to say that DT and Sanders are such wildcards to diminish TS being so high in all those categories compared to a decade of first year starters.

It's just too large a sample size along with the fact we know the offense wasn't good in '15, and the line and running game were horrible in '16.

It's just really hard to make the case that he landed in a great offense.

[HORSEPOWER 56]

Not to stir the pot too much but there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. Most of those "first year starters" were rookies on shit teams, not guys who got to learn the playbook for a year, learn from a HOFer, and start for the defending champions. Those stats look fine but are a little misleading.

I'm not trying to throw shade on TS, but he was what, the 26th ranked QB in the league last year? It's always more than stats. TS beat up on and padded his stats on below .500 teams (his wins and about 1/2 our schedule) and got smoked by winning teams. I know what my eyes saw and for every Cincy game, there was a KC part 2.

[Tned]

Not to stir the pot too much but there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. Most of those "first year starters" were rookies on shit teams, not guys who got to learn the playbook for a year, learn from a HOFer, and start for the defending champions. Those stats look fine but are a little misleading.

I'm not trying to throw shade on TS, but he was what, the 26th ranked QB in the league last year? It's always more than stats. TS beat up on and padded his stats on below .500 teams (his wins and about 1/2 our schedule) and got smoked by winning teams. I know what my eyes saw and for every Cincy game, there was a KC part 2.

Really?

It's OK to compare him to 5, 6, 10+ year vets (how he compared last year to the league), but we are going to, without any analysis, throw out what he did by saying most of the other guys on that list played on worst teams? Had "easier" schedules. That seams very, very subjective.

Also, you say defending champions as if that means everything was easy. We were the defending champs almost entirely due to the defense. The offense was not good the year the team won the SB. Outside of Sanders and DT, there was no reliable slot or TE, CJ was hurt most of the year. The right and left tackles were amongst the worst in the league, as was the run game.

That just sound like an offensive juggernaut he fell into. Take someone like Dak, he fell into a primo cushion, with that offensive line and Elliot. Did Siemian have anything like that?

As to not being a rookie, granted, he got to take third team/scout reps for a year. That cannot be discounted, as that gives him a leg up, but really, how much of a let considering how few quality reps he was getting in practice and his only NFL snap in a regular season game was a kneel down.

[Tned]

I don't have time to look at all the first year players that didn't start their rookie year. The most famous one in recent year comes to mind without doing research, so here is how his first year starting (second year in NFL) compares to Siemian in the same situation.

Obviously, the next comment will be, "but, Brady played in a different era" but if we continue to contend that there is no player in the history of the NFL to compare Siemian to, then I don't know where to go from here other than, "but we could see with our yes that he wasn't very good," which is beyond subjective.

If someone comes up with a list of "acceptable" comparisons, such as any other QBs that first started in their second year, then I would be more than happy to do those statistical comparisons.

Brady vs. Siemian

Rating: Brady 86.5 > Siemian 84.6
Yards: Siemian 3401 > Brady 2843
Y/Attempt: Siemian 6.8 > Brady 6.4
Y/Game: Siemian 242.9 > 189.5
TDs: Both with 18 (Brady with 2 more INTs)
INT%: Siemian 2.1% > Brady 2.9%
Wins: = Brady 11 > Siemian 8
4th QTR Comebacks 4th: Brady 4 > Siemian 3
300 Yrd Games: Siemian 3 > Brady 1
Completion %: Brady 63.9% > 59.5%


Player Year GS Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV
Brady 2001 14 264 413 63.9 2843 18 4.4 12 2.9 91 6.9 6.4 10.8 189.5 86.5 41 216 5.79 5.39 9 4 5 12
Siemian 2016 14 289 486 59.5 3401 18 3.7 10 2.1 76 7 6.8 11.8 242.9 84.6 31 187 6.22 6.04 6 3 2 9

[spikerman]

T, are you related to Siemian? I'm willing to give him a chance to overcome the dinks and dunks from last year, but I doubt even his mom is as big a fan as you. :D

[Freyaka]

I tried posting similar stats several times last year to try and get people to at least get past their preconceived notions about his draft status, but people didn't give a crap about it and found anyway they could to minimize the meaningfulness of such stats.

People would much rather just assume that TS is Kyle Orton or Alex Smith than believe that there is any possibility at all that he could potentially grow past his meager beginnings.

Rather than take it as it was meant (that it's too early to write the book on TS's career) they just liked to assume I was saying that TS was the next Tom Brady or something...which I never obviously said.

[topscribe]

I tried posting similar stats several times last year to try and get people to at least get past their preconceived notions about his draft status, but people didn't give a crap about it and found anyway they could to minimize the meaningfulness of such stats.

People would much rather just assume that TS is Kyle Orton or Alex Smith than believe that there is any possibility at all that he could potentially grow past his meager beginnings.

Rather than take it as it was meant (that it's too early to write the book on TS's career) they just liked to assume I was saying that TS was the next Tom Brady or something...which I never obviously said.
It's funny people keep bringing up Kyle Orton. Many hated him from the moment he stepped
off the plane from Chicago. There wasn't anything he could do to appease them. The thing
about it is that Orton played very well until he incurred his high ankle sprains, and at one
time he was playing on two at the same time.

Trevor Siemian went through something similar in certain ways. Nobody particularly hated
him that I know of, but he was lowly regarded as a 7th round draft choice. He was just a few
picks away from being "Mr. Irrelevant." He was destined to be a camp body.

In the meantime, something happened. He could make decisions. He could read defenses.
He even had a strong arm and some accuracy. He was good enough to win the job as the
starting QB for the Denver Broncos. But that wasn't good enough to influence many fans. He
was still that 7th round draft choice who was keeping the position warm until a real
quarterback came along.

Funny thing, though. He was winning games, and this statistics rivaled first year QBs who
had been chosen in the first and second rounds. But . . . that 7th round thing. Then he hurt
his foot. Then he injured his shoulder -- far worse than anyone initially thought. His throwing
range, accuracy, and mobility suffered. Well, we knew it! The seventh-rounder sucked.

And here he is today, once again winning the starting job, and now he can keep the position
warm until a real quarterback comes along . . .

[Tned]

T, are you related to Siemian? I'm willing to give him a chance to overcome the dinks and dunks from last year, but I doubt even his mom is as big a fan as you. :D

Flag on the play, personal foul!!!!

lol, no, just really do think Broncos fans are really spoiled. Ironically, Mike Rice/Andrew Mason yesterday asked fans to call in and explain why they were so critical of Siemian (not sure that's the exact phrase they used) and one of the fans even used the explanation that the Broncos have a history of great QBs so we expect more from our QBs and Andrew Mason's response, was "well, now you know how the other half live" and then went on to explain how he grew up in the TB area and then they discussed in general how Broncos fans perceptions have been warped by Elway and the one in a million free agent signing of Manning, due to the very unique circumstances.

[BroncoWave]

To be fair, some of those names ahead of him on some of those lists also wound up being shitty QBs. Nick Foles, RG3, Austin Davis, Derek Anderson, Colt McCoy, Mike Glennon all pop out to me. So if other QBs can be high on those lists and wind up sucking, so could TS.

Look, we're all rooting for the guy to succeed but geez dude. Are you his agent or something?

[Tned]

To be fair, some of those names ahead of him on some of those lists also wound up being shitty QBs. Nick Foles, RG3, Austin Davis, Derek Anderson, Colt McCoy, Mike Glennon all pop out to me. So if other QBs can be high on those lists and wind up sucking, so could TS.

Look, we're all rooting for the guy to succeed but geez dude. Are you his agent or something?

And there were a lot of names below him on those lists that have had very good years.

Again, I'm countering the "Rily Dixon Syndrome" (trademarked, I get credit when used) where in gameday threads and on Twitter, we see the constant "another ____ shank" as we watch the ball sail 40+ yards with zero return.

The critics are throwing out very subjective terms like: not good, sub par, mediocre, etc. when describing his first season. There is zero objective measure, and really very few subjective ones, where you can see his performance as a first year starter and call that a mediocre or sub par season. It was a VERY good season for a first year starter.

Now, that doesn't mean he will go on to a great career, but the narrative that he can't do any better than that, or that it was a bad first season, is just categorically false.

[Freyaka]

To be fair, some of those names ahead of him on some of those lists also wound up being shitty QBs. Nick Foles, RG3, Austin Davis, Derek Anderson, Colt McCoy, Mike Glennon all pop out to me. So if other QBs can be high on those lists and wind up sucking, so could TS.

Look, we're all rooting for the guy to succeed but geez dude. Are you his agent or something?

That's kind of the point though Wave. It's too early to write the book on him. He could still end up a crappy QB, but he could end up much better than expected. Everyone assumes they know exactly how far he can climb and no further, but he's comparable to both good and bad QB's. He literally looked like a first year starter last year and that isn't a bad thing necessarily.

I've seen so many (not as much here as on the official forums) that are just dead set against him. Basically calling him a game manager, saying we know what we have with him and it's not good enough...

I think the point of posts like this is to get people to realize we don't know what we have yet, maybe we have a vague idea, but he's capable of more (and less) than current expectations and we have to wait and see over time if he improves.


Basically, a call to be patient and see what happens.

[Hawgdriver]

If Siemian is a 1st round pick and Lynch is a 7th round pick, as they should have been, the world is a normal place. These scouts need to step up their game.

[Freyaka]

If Siemian is a 1st round pick and Lynch is a 7th round pick, as they should have been, the world is a normal place. These scouts need to step up their game.

I think TS was originally projected to be a third round pick, his ACL injury derailed that. Had he not been injured and we drafted TS in the third, not a soul would be ripping on him right now, we'd all be excited about his prospects.

[BroncoWave]

If Siemian is a 1st round pick and Lynch is a 7th round pick, as they should have been, the world is a normal place. These scouts need to step up their game.

No QB with Lynch's physical toolset would ever go in the 7th round. He has all the tools to be a great QB. Scouts will take the chance every single time that they can grab a raw specimen and coach up the rest.

[VonDoom]

Kudos on all the work that you put into this, Tned. I love me some stats and research.

This will be an interesting year. I'm not as high on Trevor as you are, but I liked what I saw last year and I said after the season that he could be a good QB. He won this job, again, and hopefully the offense around him has improved enough that it will lift him up by default.

QB stats are funny, though. Look at that passer rating list. I mean, what a year for Foles, right? You never know how it's going to play out, but I feel much more comfortable with Siemian as he is right now than I would have if they had tried to force feed us Lynch because measurables.

[Hawgdriver]

No QB with Lynch's physical toolset would ever go in the 7th round. He has all the tools to be a great QB. Scouts will take the chance every single time that they can grab a raw specimen and coach up the rest.

That's dumb. He obviously does not have all the tools or he would be starting. He has a strong arm, height, and good mobility for a big guy. Obvious physical traits and it seems to stop there.

The scouting process just isn't that good. You are making excuses for a flawed system capable of improvement.

With hindsight, where do you draft Jamarcus Russell? Why is foresight so inadequate compared to hindsight? Rather than throw up our hands and say it's complicated, it's a crapshoot--how about we improve the science?

[chazoe60]

No QB with Lynch's physical toolset would ever go in the 7th round. He has all the tools to be a great QB. Scouts will take the chance every single time that they can grab a raw specimen and coach up the rest.

The two most important attributes for a QB IMHO are IQ and accuracy, Lynch has neither.

[NightTerror218]

Question is sophomore slump? Or will 1 year of tape affect his game since coaches can better prepare for him?

Stats comparing QBs is nice but the biggest factor in if they fail or not is being able to, learn from mistakes and grow as a QB. Some of the all time greats had bad 1st years but got better and better as time went on.

[Tned]

That's kind of the point though Wave. It's too early to write the book on him. He could still end up a crappy QB, but he could end up much better than expected. Everyone assumes they know exactly how far he can climb and no further, but he's comparable to both good and bad QB's. He literally looked like a first year starter last year and that isn't a bad thing necessarily.


This is it in a nutshell. Rice and Mason were talking about this on 760 yesterday afternoon, which is the total lack of basis for the belief that so many have that what we saw last year was the best it will ever get from Siemian. That he won't grow in his second year, and third year, just like you would expect from first and second round picks, like those listed in the stats above.

For some reason, because he was a seventh round pick, the narrative has been written that what we saw is the best it will ever be.

[Tned]

Kudos on all the work that you put into this, Tned. I love me some stats and research.

This will be an interesting year. I'm not as high on Trevor as you are, but I liked what I saw last year and I said after the season that he could be a good QB. He won this job, again, and hopefully the offense around him has improved enough that it will lift him up by default.

QB stats are funny, though. Look at that passer rating list. I mean, what a year for Foles, right? You never know how it's going to play out, but I feel much more comfortable with Siemian as he is right now than I would have if they had tried to force feed us Lynch because measurables.

The Cassel effect. He got a lot of money from what good year in a good system and a team got burned. So, yes, a good statistical year does not tell the whole story.

[Tned]

Question is sophomore slump? Or will 1 year of tape affect his game since coaches can better prepare for him?

Stats comparing QBs is nice but the biggest factor in if they fail or not is being able to, learn from mistakes and grow as a QB. Some of the all time greats had bad 1st years but got better and better as time went on.

Fully agreed.

[BigDaddyBronco]

The two most important attributes for a QB IMHO are IQ and accuracy, Lynch has neither.

AKA Brady and Manning before the body wore out.

[BigDaddyBronco]

This is it in a nutshell. Rice and Mason were talking about this on 760 yesterday afternoon, which is the total lack of basis for the belief that so many have that what we saw last year was the best it will ever get from Siemian. That he won't grow in his second year, and third year, just like you would expect from first and second round picks, like those listed in the stats above.

For some reason, because he was a seventh round pick, the narrative has been written that what we saw is the best it will ever be.

Heck it might take a few years. Tom Brady didn't turn into an offensive juggernaut until several years into his career. Needed the right elements and the right offense.

The idea that he has a low ceiling is stupid. How the hell does anyone know that. These guys would have given up on Rodgers since he hadn't beaten out Brett Favre yet.

[topscribe]

Heck it might take a few years. Tom Brady didn't turn into an offensive juggernaut until several years into his career. Needed the right elements and the right offense.

The idea that he has a low ceiling is stupid. How the hell does anyone know that. These guys would have given up on Rodgers since he hadn't beaten out Brett Favre yet.
Well, of course, Favre was one of the best football players ever to play the game. But your
point is well taken. It seems that Siemian's image of having a low ceiling is based on one
factor: 7th round. Forget that he was considered 3rd round talent until he blew out his knee
in his final college game.

Even last year, when he acquitted himself well -- even while playing with a seriously injured
shoulder -- was dismissed by his detractors. He was a 7th rounder, a camp body, a band-aid
until Paxton was ready to take the reins. He's going to have to become a Pro Bowler to
change some minds, and even then some won't like him because he can't throw the ball 80
yards while on his knees. So be it. I'm excited to see what he can do.

[Denver Native (Carol)]

What Does Trevor Siemian's QB Victory Mean for Paxton Lynch?

This is Troy Renck talking in regards to what all happened during the QB competition which led to Trevor being named the starting QB.

http://broncos.vsporto.com/episode/23862/renck-and-file-what-does-trevor-siemians-qb-victory-mean-for-paxton-lynch/

[topscribe]

What Does Trevor Siemian's QB Victory Mean for Paxton Lynch?

This is Troy Renck talking in regards to what all happened during the QB competition which led to Trevor being named the starting QB.

http://broncos.vsporto.com/episode/23862/renck-and-file-what-does-trevor-siemians-qb-victory-mean-for-paxton-lynch/
Really good report by Troy Renck.

Then I clicked on one of the other reports in the sidebar there, and the guy was saying that
if Siemian is good the Broncos should be "7-9, maybe 8-8" this year. I switched it off. Last
year, the Broncos were 9-7 with a bad O-line and lack of a decent running game. Why would
their record be worse with a better O-line and a ridiculously deep RB corps -- and a healthy
Siemian? :tsk:

I find better comments from some of the posters right here than among many of the pundits . . .

[Freyaka]

Tned, I stole your stats because they were helpful in a couple of debates on another forum. Thanks for the effort.

[Cugel]

All these opinions will fade before the evidence when the regular season starts. Either Trevor will be vastly improved over last year or the Broncos will lose a lot of close games during an absolutely brutal schedule. A murderer's row of one playoff team after another.

If it's the latter, then this thread will look rather foolish a year from now, rather like the expressions of happiness the night Paxton was drafted among many fans and pundits.

As of now, I'm not particularly optimistic about Trevor becoming the long term answer at QB. I don't think the Broncos franchise QB is on the roster right now, although in 2018 they need to give Chad Kelly and Kyle Sloter a serious look.

The problem is that Elway will have to make a decision about drafting a QB in the 2018 draft without being able to judge whether either Sloter or Kelly have any real chance of becoming elite QBs.

One way to finesse the problem would be to sign a veteran FA QB (possibly Drew Brees or Matt Stafford?) for a season or two while developing the young guns for a year or two.

But, unless Trevor shows signs by season's end of becoming a top 10 QB - like the next Derek Carr, then Elway will have to make a move to acquire a new QB in the off-season.

[Cugel]

Really good report by Troy Renck.

Then I clicked on one of the other reports in the sidebar there, and the guy was saying that
if Siemian is good the Broncos should be "7-9, maybe 8-8" this year. I switched it off. Last
year, the Broncos were 9-7 with a bad O-line and lack of a decent running game. Why would
their record be worse with a better O-line and a ridiculously deep RB corps -- and a healthy
Siemian? :tsk:

I find better comments from some of the posters right here than among many of the pundits . . .

Because the schedule is really brutal. The team could easily be better than last year and finish with a worse record. They play the toughest schedule in the NFL. I don't mind that because if they make the playoffs they'll be battle tested, but it could easily turn out to be a 7-9 or 8-8 season because they play really difficult road schedule - 6 out of the final 9 games are on the road.

[Tned]

All these opinions will fade before the evidence when the regular season starts. Either Trevor will be vastly improved over last year or the Broncos will lose a lot of close games during an absolutely brutal schedule. A murderer's row of one playoff team after another.

If it's the latter, then this thread will look rather foolish a year from now, rather like the expressions of happiness the night Paxton was drafted among many fans and pundits.

As of now, I'm not particularly optimistic about Trevor becoming the long term answer at QB. I don't think the Broncos franchise QB is on the roster right now, although in 2018 they need to give Chad Kelly and Kyle Sloter a serious look.

The problem is that Elway will have to make a decision about drafting a QB in the 2018 draft without being able to judge whether either Sloter or Kelly have any real chance of becoming elite QBs.

One way to finesse the problem would be to sign a veteran FA QB (possibly Drew Brees or Matt Stafford?) for a season or two while developing the young guns for a year or two.

But, unless Trevor shows signs by season's end of becoming a top 10 QB - like the next Derek Carr, then Elway will have to make a move to acquire a new QB in the off-season.

The thread won't look foolish, because there is no "claim" or prediction as to what Siemian will be, but instead a counter for the emotional, subjective "Siemian sucked" narrative. There is no objective measure of Siemian's first year starting that was sub par, sucked or the like. It was a very good first year.

Only time will tell if he improves with time, or gets not better, or worse.

[Canmore]

Ok, for each of those categories, here are some of the big names or very high draft picks that rank below Siemian in each category (just eyeballed it so could easily have missed some).

This isn't everyone below him, because on average there were about 32 first year starters worse than him in each category, but instead this is just some selected elite QBs or big name/high draft picks.

Rating better than:
Newton
Winston
Dalton
Flacco
Wentz
Carr
Luck
Tannehill
Stafford
Young
Sanchez


Season Yards
Dalton
Tannehill
Carr
RG3
Wilson
Flacco
Bridgewater
Foles
Mariota
Glennon
Young
Stafford
Sanchez


Yards per attempt
Luck
Flacco
Tannehill
Young
Wenz
Stafford
Carr


Yards per game
Wentz
Mariota
Prescott
Stafford
Bridgewater
Foles
Cutler
Ryan
Dalton
RG3
Tannehill
Carr
Wilson
Flacco
Young
Sanchez


Touchdowns
Bradford
Wentz
Ryan
Bridgewater
Flacco
Stafford
Tannehill
Sanchez
Young


Interception %
Wentz
Dalton
Ryan
Bradford
Wilson
Tannehill
Mariota
Flacco
Winston
Luck
Bridgewater
Cutler
Newton
Young
Stafford


Wins
Sanchez
Cutler
Tannehill
Wentz
Bradford
Newton
Winston
Bridgewater
Russel
Mariota
Carr
Stafford


4th QTR comebacks
Winston
Cutler
Mariota
Ryan
Carr
Flacco


300 yard games
Prescott
Winston
Mariota
Foles
Dalton
Ryan
Cutler
Tannehill
Bradford
Stafford


Completion %
Winston
Tanneill
Dalton
Carr
Luck
Sanchez
Stafford

Tned! Don't confuse me with the facts!

[Hawgdriver]

The thread won't look foolish, because there is no "claim" or prediction as to what Siemian will be, but instead a counter for the emotional, subjective "Siemian sucked" narrative. There is no subjective measure of Siemian's first year starting that was sub par, sucked or the like. It was a very good first year.

Only time will tell if he improves with time, or gets not better, or worse.

*objective

[Tned]

*objective

Oops. Been a long morning already. Posting in brief breaks between work calls. Been on phone pretty much nonstop since 6:30.

[Canmore]

Not to stir the pot too much but there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. Most of those "first year starters" were rookies on shit teams, not guys who got to learn the playbook for a year, learn from a HOFer, and start for the defending champions. Those stats look fine but are a little misleading.

I'm not trying to throw shade on TS, but he was what, the 26th ranked QB in the league last year? It's always more than stats. TS beat up on and padded his stats on below .500 teams (his wins and about 1/2 our schedule) and got smoked by winning teams. I know what my eyes saw and for every Cincy game, there was a KC part 2.

And a KC part 1.

[Canmore]

The two most important attributes for a QB IMHO are IQ and accuracy, Lynch has neither.

Truth! ^^^^

[Canmore]

All these opinions will fade before the evidence when the regular season starts. Either Trevor will be vastly improved over last year or the Broncos will lose a lot of close games during an absolutely brutal schedule. A murderer's row of one playoff team after another.

If it's the latter, then this thread will look rather foolish a year from now, rather like the expressions of happiness the night Paxton was drafted among many fans and pundits.

As of now, I'm not particularly optimistic about Trevor becoming the long term answer at QB. I don't think the Broncos franchise QB is on the roster right now, although in 2018 they need to give Chad Kelly and Kyle Sloter a serious look.

The problem is that Elway will have to make a decision about drafting a QB in the 2018 draft without being able to judge whether either Sloter or Kelly have any real chance of becoming elite QBs.

One way to finesse the problem would be to sign a veteran FA QB (possibly Drew Brees or Matt Stafford?) for a season or two while developing the young guns for a year or two.

But, unless Trevor shows signs by season's end of becoming a top 10 QB - like the next Derek Carr, then Elway will have to make a move to acquire a new QB in the off-season.

Just where would we fit one of those two into our cap?

[BroncoWave]

That's dumb. He obviously does not have all the tools or he would be starting. He has a strong arm, height, and good mobility for a big guy. Obvious physical traits and it seems to stop there.

The scouting process just isn't that good. You are making excuses for a flawed system capable of improvement.

With hindsight, where do you draft Jamarcus Russell? Why is foresight so inadequate compared to hindsight? Rather than throw up our hands and say it's complicated, it's a crapshoot--how about we improve the science?


The two most important attributes for a QB IMHO are IQ and accuracy, Lynch has neither.

A lot of these same things were said about Dak Prescott. Questions about his accuracy, adjusting to pro style offense, all that. You just never know until you get them on an NFL field. You say "oh just improve the scouting system" as if that's an easy thing to do. If it were really that easy, you wouldn't have guys like Russell being picked high.

[Hawgdriver]

A lot of these same things were said about Dak Prescott. Questions about his accuracy, adjusting to pro style offense, all that. You just never know until you get them on an NFL field. You say "oh just improve the scouting system" as if that's an easy thing to do. If it were really that easy, you wouldn't have guys like Russell being picked high.

I agree that this is how we do business, I submit that it is a sub-optimal approach.

[BroncoWave]

I mean hell, both the Broncos and Cowboys really liked both Lynch and Prescott last year, and they have gone in completely opposite directions. Both had many of the same question marks coming out of college. I'm not sure what magical scouting tool you expect these NFL teams should be able to pull out of a hat to just KNOW how good a QB will be.

[BroncoWave]

I agree that this is how we do business, I submit that it is a sub-optimal approach.

Maybe it just isn't possible to know.

[Hawgdriver]

I mean hell, both the Broncos and Cowboys really liked both Lynch and Prescott last year, and they have gone in completely opposite directions. Both had many of the same question marks coming out of college. I'm not sure what magical scouting tool you expect these NFL teams should be able to pull out of a hat to just KNOW how good a QB will be.

Agree, bloodletting cures cancer.

[Tned]

I agree that this is how we do business, I submit that it is a sub-optimal approach.

If all colleges ran NFL style offenses, then the process would be much easier. The problem is that quite often scouts are trying to look at a Qb in a run first or spread offense, and figure out how that QBs skill will translate/project into a pro style offense. At to that much larger difference in the level of competition various QBs face in college and it's a very inexact science that they get wrong far more times than they get right.

I've posed the question several times on here and Twitter, asking who were the sure thing, can't miss QB prospects since 2000 and most honestly answer, Andrew Luck. One threw in Eli Manning and another Newton, but most answer with just Luck, which I agree.

[shank]

Great effort and thread T. TS is getting the short end of the stick from most people - hopefully he uses it to fuel him and continue to get better. He has all the tools to do great things, just needs to stay healthy and execute.

[Denver Native (Carol)]

Interesting from Kiper. I had not heard that besides Dallas, KC also wanted Lynch.

Would 2016 first-round QBs have same value this year?

Mel Kiper Jr. is confident Jared Goff, Carson Wentz and Paxton Lynch would all be first-round picks if they were in the 2017 NFL draft.

http://www.espn.com/videohub/video/clip?id=19037568

Interesting to me, since some are now questioning why the Broncos drafted Lynch in the first round.

[VonDoom]

Just where would we fit one of those two into our cap?

Stafford in particular is going to get $25 million or more on the open market, if he gets there. As always, this debate isn't about, say, Siemian vs Stafford. It's about Siemian at $700k vs Stafford at $25 million, and what we could do with the difference in that money. Also, Stafford is 30 - he's not taking a "year or two" deal, he's going to break the bank for five or six years.

[BroncoJoe]

I skipped the last three pages.

Man, I can't wait for Saturday.

[Freyaka]

So here is an interesting stat. Trevor's adjusted accuracy rating in the preseason was 100%



Adjusted Completion Percentage ("ACP") takes out drops by receivers (good throws that should have been caught), throwaways, spikes to stop the clock, batted down passes, and passes where the QB was hit as he threw.

https://twitter.com/PFF/status/900104298713030656
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DH3QFiHWsAEBslc.jpg

[spikerman]

So here is an interesting stat. Trevor's adjusted accuracy rating in the preseason was 100%




https://twitter.com/PFF/status/900104298713030656
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DH3QFiHWsAEBslc.jpg

Hopefully that's where the comparisons to those QBs end. If he's still keeping the same company at the end of the season in any category the team is in SERIOUS trouble.

[Freyaka]

Hopefully that's where the comparisons to those QBs end. If he's still keeping the same company at the end of the season in any category the team is in SERIOUS trouble.

This shit right here...Let's ignore an impressive stat and bring up the fact that the others to accomplish it suck. That is why I'm going bald... :D

[Hawgdriver]

This shit right here...Let's ignore an impressive stat and bring up the fact that the others to accomplish it suck. That is why I'm going bald... :D

It's a fair point. Rather see established starters that are being compared, then I could better decide if it's actually impressive. Goff was 87%, that means three misses vs. Trevor's 0. Yeah, it's money to be 100%. Were those guys the next highest percentages, or just some randos?

[Simple Jaded]

I think we've seen TS's floor, and I think a Kirk Cousins caliber is absolutely a possibility.

I hate Cousins but with this defense I can live with that, especially w/o the ridiculous "You like that!" Jackoff personality.

[topscribe]

Same old story. Tned produces overwhelming documentation on Siemian, then out of the woodwork
come the naysayers, and their rebuttles amount to "he sucks." I've wasted my time before with such
an endeavor. Such time is better spent on something else. Even this post is a waste of time . . .

[Tned]

I think we've seen TS's floor, and I think a Kirk Cousins caliber is absolutely a possibility.

I hate Cousins but with this defense I can live with that, especially w/o the ridiculous "You like that!" Jackoff personality.

I'm not willing to speculate on what type of QB he'll be like, because we just haven't seen enough to know. For instance, before Joseph made the comment about his arm, I've been talking about the fact from what I've seen I think it's above average and the short throws wasn't an arm issue, but instead scheme + young, conservative QB. " QB told "don't turn the ball over and put our defense in a bad situation."

So, I agree, we probably witnessed TS's floor. What is his ceiling? What QB will he be most like? Who knows.

The one that comes to mind at the moment, although I haven't been a big fan of his, is Romo. I think from a throwing motion, accuracy, reasonable mobility, etc., that's the QB that pops in my head, but again, that book hasn't been written, so who know.

[Cugel]

The thread won't look foolish, because there is no "claim" or prediction as to what Siemian will be, but instead a counter for the emotional, subjective "Siemian sucked" narrative. There is no objective measure of Siemian's first year starting that was sub par, sucked or the like. It was a very good first year.

Only time will tell if he improves with time, or gets not better, or worse.

I probably had kludge fingers when typing my answer. The thread won't look foolish. But, the excitement that Broncos fans feel about Trevor starting will wilt, unless he improves at least as much this year as he did last year. He has a long ass way to go, that's all.

There were a lot of measures by which Trevor sucked last year. He was a below average QB when compared with other NFL starting QBs. You can't compare his first year to the first year of Tom Brady or something, that's a total fallacious argument.

It would be like arguing that since your child of 3 was no slower than Usain Bolt at 3 years old, therefore your child could grow up to be as fast as Usain Bolt. No. Just no! Unless they grow up to be as fast as Usain Bolt was when he was 10 and 15 and 20, then no, your kid won't be as fast.

In short, every QB who starts off struggling is not equal to every other QB who struggles to begin his career. One guy is Tom Brady and develops into the Tom Brady we know today. The other isn't and doesn't.

[Valar Morghulis]

It would be like arguing that since your child of 3 was no slower than Usain Bolt at 3 years old, therefore your child could grow up to be as fast as Usain Bolt. No. Just no!.

Nobody is arguing this

There is a difference between stating he had a similar start to Tom Brady and he will turn into Tom Brady.

[Tned]

I probably had kludge fingers when typing my answer. The thread won't look foolish. But, the excitement that Broncos fans feel about Trevor starting will wilt, unless he improves at least as much this year as he did last year. He has a long ass way to go, that's all.

Not sure there is overwhelming excitement for him. There are some that feel he was underappreciated and fans were out of touch with reality related to his performance last year. (I know that sounds harsh, but it's the best way to say it in the fewest words). However, it's not like many people expect him to perform like Brady or Luck or even Rivers this season.


There were a lot of measures by which Trevor sucked last year. He was a below average QB when compared with other NFL starting QBs. You can't compare his first year to the first year of Tom Brady or something, that's a total fallacious argument.


No, the fallacious argument is to compare him to the league as a whole, when most of them are multi year starting vets. It is far, far more accurate to compare him to others in their first year of starting than to compare him to veteran QBs.


It would be like arguing that since your child of 3 was no slower than Usain Bolt at 3 years old, therefore your child could grow up to be as fast as Usain Bolt. No. Just no! Unless they grow up to be as fast as Usain Bolt was when he was 10 and 15 and 20, then no, your kid won't be as fast.


Ok, you might have just outdid Joel for the most asinine analogy of the decade.


In short, every QB who starts off struggling is not equal to every other QB who struggles to begin his career. One guy is Tom Brady and develops into the Tom Brady we know today. The other isn't and doesn't.


I certainly have never made that claim.

The only thing I've stated, which is backed up by stats, is that he had an above average year compared to other first year starters. Please show me where I've said that because his first year was comparable to Brady's that it means he will be Brady.

I'll stand by while you show me where I've made the claim that his first year stats prove he will be as good or better than others with comparable or worse first year stats.

[Tned]

Nobody is arguing this

There is a difference between stating he had a similar start to Tom Brady and he will turn into Tom Brady.

Yea, anyone older than a 3 year old Usain Bolt should have good enough reading comprehension to comprehend that point.

[Freyaka]

I probably had kludge fingers when typing my answer. The thread won't look foolish. But, the excitement that Broncos fans feel about Trevor starting will wilt, unless he improves at least as much this year as he did last year. He has a long ass way to go, that's all.

There were a lot of measures by which Trevor sucked last year. He was a below average QB when compared with other NFL starting QBs. You can't compare his first year to the first year of Tom Brady or something, that's a total fallacious argument.

It would be like arguing that since your child of 3 was no slower than Usain Bolt at 3 years old, therefore your child could grow up to be as fast as Usain Bolt. No. Just no! Unless they grow up to be as fast as Usain Bolt was when he was 10 and 15 and 20, then no, your kid won't be as fast.

In short, every QB who starts off struggling is not equal to every other QB who struggles to begin his career. One guy is Tom Brady and develops into the Tom Brady we know today. The other isn't and doesn't.

We aren't saying he's going to be brady because the stats are the same...We're saying to give him time to find out WHAT HE CAN BE and that his stats last year don't dictate what he's capable of, other QB's posted very similar numbers their first year and went on to be something more, some went on to be garbage. Trevor can be something more too potentially, will he? Who the hell knows I don't have a time machine or crystal ball... But to point to his numbers last year and say that's his ceiling is foolish... And that's what this thread was meant to combat.

[NightTrainLayne]

Let's please dial back the personal jabs fellows. Thanks.

[Freyaka]

I tried posting similar stats several times last year to try and get people to at least get past their preconceived notions about his draft status, but people didn't give a crap about it and found anyway they could to minimize the meaningfulness of such stats.

People would much rather just assume that TS is Kyle Orton or Alex Smith than believe that there is any possibility at all that he could potentially grow past his meager beginnings.

Rather than take it as it was meant (that it's too early to write the book on TS's career) they just liked to assume I was saying that TS was the next Tom Brady or something...which I never obviously said.


That's kind of the point though Wave. It's too early to write the book on him. He could still end up a crappy QB, but he could end up much better than expected. Everyone assumes they know exactly how far he can climb and no further, but he's comparable to both good and bad QB's. He literally looked like a first year starter last year and that isn't a bad thing necessarily.

I've seen so many (not as much here as on the official forums) that are just dead set against him. Basically calling him a game manager, saying we know what we have with him and it's not good enough...

I think the point of posts like this is to get people to realize we don't know what we have yet, maybe we have a vague idea, but he's capable of more (and less) than current expectations and we have to wait and see over time if he improves.


Basically, a call to be patient and see what happens.


This is it in a nutshell. Rice and Mason were talking about this on 760 yesterday afternoon, which is the total lack of basis for the belief that so many have that what we saw last year was the best it will ever get from Siemian. That he won't grow in his second year, and third year, just like you would expect from first and second round picks, like those listed in the stats above.

For some reason, because he was a seventh round pick, the narrative has been written that what we saw is the best it will ever be.

Just wanted to bump some reading material so no one else gets the wrong idea that anyone is saying because TS had numbers similar to Brady, we'll have a handful of superbowl rings and he's the next goat...

That was never said in fact it was very, very clearly stated that we didn't want to imply that at all.


Just so there is no more confusion...

[slim]

Same old story. Tned produces overwhelming documentation on Siemian, then out of the woodwork
come the naysayers, and their rebuttles amount to "he sucks." I've wasted my time before with such
an endeavor. Such time is better spent on something else. Even this post is a waste of time . . .

Where are all these people saying "he sucks"?

[BeefStew25]

Same old story. Tned produces overwhelming documentation on Siemian, then out of the woodwork
come the naysayers, and their rebuttles amount to "he sucks." I've wasted my time before with such
an endeavor. Such time is better spent on something else. Even this post is a waste of time . . .

Its not always all about you.

[BroncoJoe]

The Siemian threads are almost as bad as the political talk!

:D

[BeefStew25]

The Siemian threads are almost as bad as the political talk!

:D

I don't get it. Like he is our only option. Who is bitching about him? And when is kickoff week one?

[BroncoJoe]

I don't get it. Like he is our only option. Who is bitching about him? And when is kickoff week one?

9/11

[BeefStew25]

9/11

and who wants sloter on the roster?

[Hawgdriver]

and who wants sloter on the roster?

When you don't have an elite QB, seems to me the wise course is to maximize your opportunity to get one. There is enough chatter for me to be confident I'm not alone in thinking he might not hit the PS. Otoh it's a 53 roster on a championship hopeful team. At least Vegas thinks so. I can see why you risk waivers.

[BeefStew25]

When you don't have an elite QB, seems to me the wise course is to maximize your opportunity to get one. There is enough chatter for me to be confident I'm not alone in thinking he might not hit the PS. Otoh it's a 53 roster on a championship hopeful team. At least Vegas thinks so. I can see why you risk waivers.

I mean he looked great against the guys changing my oil in a couple of weeks. I guess lets see what happens. It's all we have Hawg.

[BroncoJoe]

and who wants sloter on the roster?

I think we've typically carried three on the roster - not sure though.

Are you coming for the first game?

NOTE THE "O" IN COMING. TIA.

[Freyaka]

Haha Tned, your thread got a writeup

http://bsndenver.com/heres-the-thing-about-trevor-siemian/amp/

[BroncoJoe]

Haha Tned, your thread got a writeup

http://bsndenver.com/heres-the-thing-about-trevor-siemian/amp/

That's cool! Hopefully they asked permission...

[BeefStew25]

I think we've typically carried three on the roster - not sure though.

Are you coming for the first game?

NOTE THE "O" IN COMING. TIA.

No.

[BroncoJoe]

No.

Fine.

[BeefStew25]

Fine.

Any single ladies

[BroncoJoe]

Any single ladies

I mean, probably. I thought you were more into dudes though.

I will take some pics for you. I wonder if Tubby is going. I'm guessing you'd know.

He'll probably ignore me as usual. Even though I was his best friend a couple weeks ago.

[BeefStew25]

I mean, probably. I thought you were more into dudes though.

I will take some pics for you. I wonder if Tubby is going. I'm guessing you'd know.

He'll probably ignore me as usual. Even though I was his best friend a couple weeks ago.

Tubby is all about tubby.

[Tned]

Haha Tned, your thread got a writeup

http://bsndenver.com/heres-the-thing-about-trevor-siemian/amp/


That's cool! Hopefully they asked permission...

He linked to the stats in this thread. I tweeted out (when I was sharing with the 760 guys) that it could be used, no credit needed. I saw the article earlier when I ran out quickly for a sandwich, but was coming in here to post a link to it. I was coming in to actually post some quotes and link to it.

[Tned]

Here's a bit of the article, including a quote from CJ, who is clearly thinking the same thing in regards to Siemian's first year.


Here’s the thing about Trevor Siemian

By Ryan Koenigsberg on August 23, 2017

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. – What if I told you that you could have a quarterback who, in his first year as a starter, had a better passer rating than Cam Newton and Jameis Winston did, more yards than Russell Wilson and Joe Flacco did, more yards per attempt than Andrew Luck and Derek Carr did, more yards per game than Marcus Mariota and Dak Prescott did and more touchdowns than Carson Wentz and Teddy Bridgewater did?

You’d take him, right?

Well, Broncos fans, you got him.

That’s right, when you compare the 2016 stats of Trevor Siemian to every other first-year starter in the last decade, the Broncos’ quarterback ranks in the top third of just about any passing stat you can drum up. Ranking in the top 10 of many and in the top five of stats like yards per game, fourth-quarter comebacks and 300-yard games.

...

Here’s the cold, hard truth—if those were the stats of Paxton Lynch listed above, Broncos fans would be using them on a daily basis to try and convince the world that their former first-round pick is the next great. As for Siemian, well, most fans probably didn’t know those stats until just now.

...

“Uhh, most definitely,” said an adamant C.J. Anderson of that very notion. “You know, I was arguing with some of my boys the other day—we put up Matt Ryan’s rookie year and put up Trevor’s ‘rookie’ year, the stats are similar. You know, I’m not saying he’s going to be Matt Ryan but…”


Read the full write up, which is a good read, here: http://bsndenver.com/heres-the-thing-about-trevor-siemian/

[topscribe]

He linked to the stats in this thread. I tweeted out (when I was sharing with the 760 guys) that it could be used, no credit needed. I saw the article earlier when I ran out quickly for a sandwich, but was coming in here to post a link to it. I was coming in to actually post some quotes and link to it.
I gave BF a little plug in the comments there . . . :)

[slim]

I am sold. TS is a true FQB.

Not because of the comparisons....because Cugal is always wrong!

[Cugel]

Let's simplify this stuff: The Space Shuttle Challenger launch started off pretty much like every other successful launch. If you just went by how good the rocket looked until it got about 1/2 minute into the flight you'd say "Go with throttle up!"

It's a little bit early to make comparisons. Just because Brady and Manning sucked their first year and compared statistically with Trevor doesn't mean Trevor will continue to develop like Peyton or Brady. If he continues for the first 3 seasons to look like Brady we'll have something.

[Cugel]

I am sold. TS is a true FQB.

Not because of the comparisons....because Cugal is always wrong!

That's hilarious! I'll be sure to tell Cugal if I see him. :laugh:

[Tned]

Let's simplify this stuff: The Space Shuttle Challenger launch started off pretty much like every other successful launch. If you just went by how good the rocket looked until it got about 1/2 minute into the flight you'd say "Go with throttle up!"



Seriously? :tsk: :tsk: :tsk: There is a line to be drawn when attempting to win a football forum argument. Using the tragic death of our astronauts is crossing that line.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrDSqODtEFM

[Freyaka]

Let's simplify this stuff: The Space Shuttle Challenger launch started off pretty much like every other successful launch. If you just went by how good the rocket looked until it got about 1/2 minute into the flight you'd say "Go with throttle up!"

It's a little bit early to make comparisons. Just because Brady and Manning sucked their first year and compared statistically with Trevor doesn't mean Trevor will continue to develop like Peyton or Brady. If he continues for the first 3 seasons to look like Brady we'll have something.

Did Joel just clone himself and rename one of the clones to Cugel, because I swear, that analogy was as bad as anything Joel has ever come up with.

[Tned]

Everybody is waking up to the obvious truth of Siemian's first year.

Klis wrote an article comparing Siemian's first year starting to PeytonBrees, and Brady.

The quote at top is from Siemian.




“As far as on my end, I’ve only played a year. I hope I keep improving. I don’t want to speak on behalf of other guys but I don’t think Peyton Manning was Peyton Manning in year two. Or Drew Brees or Tom Brady. I think it took those guys a little while to get to where they’re at now. I kind of watch those guys and envision myself where I want to be this year, and next year, and the year after and hopefully I can keep continuing to grow and keep getting better.’’

Since he brought it up, let’s compare the statistics of his first year as an NFL starting quarterback to those three, eventual, first-ballot Hall of Famers.

QB ………. A .… C … PCT … Y … TD … I … RTG … W-L

Siemian . 486 . 289 . 59.5 . 3401 . 18 . 10 . 84.6 . 8-6

Brady ….. 413 . 264 . 63.9 . 2843 . 18 . 12 . 86.5 . 11-3

Manning . 575 . 326 . 56.7 . 3739 . 26 . 28 . 71.2 . 3-13

Brees … 526 . 320 . 60.8 . 3284 . 17 . 16 . 76.9 . 8-8

Note: Siemian, Brady and Brees didn’t become starters until their second season. Manning started as a rookie

http://www.9news.com/mobile/article/amp/sports/siemian-begins-year-two-after-comparing-favorably-to-greats-in-first-year-as-starter/467787820

[Simple Jaded]

I'm getting a Chubb.

[Tned]

I am sold. TS is a true FQB.


I'm beginning to think Slim is right, and the rest of us were just slow to get on board...

[Northman]

Im not going to anoint him just yet. Im not falling for the banana in the tailpipe trick.

[Simple Jaded]

SD plays a Cover 3, the Cowballs play a Tampa 2, it's fair to wonder what happens when the opponent is a little more multiple.

[Canmore]

SD plays a Cover 3, the Cowballs play a Tampa 2, it's fair to wonder what happens when the opponent is a little more multiple.

???????????

[Tned]

https://twitter.com/MaseDenver/status/909791461721350145

[topscribe]

https://twitter.com/MaseDenver/status/909791461721350145
#1 Dak Prescott. Ring a bell?

[Simple Jaded]

Remember all the brain damage Cutler caused with those 15 Ints? What a difference 3 Ints make.

My how times have changed.

[Simple Jaded]

???????????

Meaning a defense that will mix it up to try and confuse the QB.

[Freyaka]

Remember all the brain damage Cutler caused with those 15 Ints? What a difference 3 Ints make.

My how times have changed.

I want to roll my eyes, but instead I'll just walk away and go play video games or something.

[Simple Jaded]

I want to roll my eyes, but instead I'll just walk away and go play video games or something.

:coffee:

[Tned]

Remember all the brain damage Cutler caused with those 15 Ints? What a difference 3 Ints make.

My how times have changed.

Remember when Jaded didn't post a caustic reply?

Hmmm..... :confused:

[Freyaka]

Remember when Jaded didn't post a caustic reply?

Hmmm..... :confused:

That was before the brain damage, blame Jay Cutler.

[Cugel]

Remember when Jaded didn't post a caustic reply?

Hmmm..... :confused:

No actually. Has that happened? :confused:

[Cugel]

That was before the brain damage, blame Jay Cutler.

Oh, Jay Cutler has caused more than his share of brain damage. His poor girlfriend was so brain damaged she agreed to marry him!

11101

[Simple Jaded]

Remember when Jaded didn't post a caustic reply?

Hmmm..... :confused:

I just did a caustic reply binge.

It was glorious.

[Simple Jaded]

No actually. Has that happened? :confused:

You're probably confused because Everybody's replies to you are caustic.

[Joel]

Remember all the brain damage Cutler caused with those 15 Ints? What a difference 3 Ints make.

My how times have changed.
Two more TDs may make a difference too, but the biggest difference is Cutlers 3 MORE Ints were thrown despite >100 LESS passes. That is, Siemians first year Int% was 2.20, while Cutlers was 3.4, so in a given number of passes Cutler would average half again as many Ints, with only a quarter more TDs to offset them. And remember:

That's from someone who loathed Plummer and declared McDumbass dead to me the moment I heard of the whole "trade Cutler for Cassell and the #1 overall pick" fiasco.

[Simple Jaded]

Two more TDs may make a difference too, but the biggest difference is Cutlers 3 MORE Ints were thrown despite >100 LESS passes. That is, Siemians first year Int% was 2.20, while Cutlers was 3.4, so in a given number of passes Cutler would average half again as many Ints, with only a quarter more TDs to offset them. And remember:

That's from someone who loathed Plummer and declared McDumbass dead to me the moment I heard of the whole "trade Cutler for Cassell and the #1 overall pick" fiasco.
You forgot "Almost Ints", Cutler caused you poor fans a lot of brain damage with those too.

How do those numbers compare?

[Cugel]

Two more TDs may make a difference too, but the biggest difference is Cutlers 3 MORE Ints were thrown despite >100 LESS passes. That is, Siemians first year Int% was 2.20, while Cutlers was 3.4, so in a given number of passes Cutler would average half again as many Ints, with only a quarter more TDs to offset them. And remember:

That's from someone who loathed Plummer and declared McDumbass dead to me the moment I heard of the whole "trade Cutler for Cassell and the #1 overall pick" fiasco.

Unfortunately, Cutler wasn't a leader, because he just doesn't give a crap. About anybody. Everybody dislikes him now, but does he care? No. He still gets to keep all the money.

But, when he was in Denver he was too inexperienced a QB for us to know it.