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View Full Version : Broncos 2009 Draft - Thanks McDingleberry



goodforubud
04-25-2017, 12:09 PM
Two days away from what will hopefully be a glorious draft. ESPN posted an article listing the draft bust for each team, and for the Broncos they selected Alphonso Smith from 2009. This was McD's first draft and looking back i cant overstate how horrible it was.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/biggest-nfl-draft-busts-for-all-32-nfl-teams-and-no-johnny-manziels-not-one/
"Alphonso Smith, CB, 37th overall, 2009: This pick embodies all that was wrong with the Josh McDaniels era. Smith was a smallish, undersized cornerback who was in Denver for just one season before he was traded to the Lions. Compounding matters: The Broncos gave up a 2010 first-round pick to get Smith and that pick would turn out to be Earl Thomas."

My pick for biggest draft bust is the Richard Quinn pick from the same year. I remember when he was drafted the analysts seemed to have no idea who he was. I think he had 9 career receptions in college and ended up with 1 NFL reception.

Was 2009 the worst draft in Broncos history? Knowshawn was decent and Brute turned out to be a great special teams player but this looks pretty bad considering they had 5 picks in the first two rounds.

2009 - DENVER BRONCOS
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL
1 12 Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia
1 18 Robert Ayers LB Tennessee
2 37 Alphonso Smith DB Wake Forest
2 48 Darcel McBath DB Texas Tech
2 64 Richard Quinn TE North Carolina
4 114 David Bruton DB Notre Dame
4 132 Seth Olsen G Iowa
5 141 Kenny McKinley WR South Carolina
6 174 Tom Brandstater QB Fresno State
7 225 Blake Schlueter C Texas Christian

Al Wilson 4 Mayor
04-25-2017, 12:17 PM
Ayers and Moreno were both solid contributors

MOtorboat
04-25-2017, 12:21 PM
Ayers and Moreno were both solid contributors

Now you've gone and done it...

That draft was pretty bad. Drafting Tebow in the first round the next year was a disaster.

Hawgdriver
04-25-2017, 12:40 PM
Of the 74 picks made by the Broncos between 2005 and 2014, here is the rank of each of those picks compared to expected contribution from that draft pick.

#73 (Quinn), #69 (McBath), #68 (McKinley), #64 (Brandstater), #57 (Ayers), #62 (Schlueter), #48 (A. Smith), #46 (Bruton), #29 (Olsen), #18 (Moreno).

Ranking draft class years from 2005 and 2014, the 2009 class was the 2d worse based on average pick quality after the 2013 class of Sly Williams, Montee Ball, Kayvon, Q. Smith, T. King, V. Painter, and Zac Dysert. But the 2009 class had 10 picks compared to the 7 picks in the 2013 Broncos class.

The 2010 class with Tebow (....and DT, Decker, Beadles, JD Walton, and P Cox) was actually the 2d best draft class during that 10 year span, behind the 2006 class with Marshall and Doom.

Hawgdriver
04-25-2017, 12:41 PM
Based on comparing actual AV compared to projected AV.

goodforubud
04-25-2017, 01:52 PM
Of the 74 picks made by the Broncos between 2005 and 2014, here is the rank of each of those picks compared to expected contribution from that draft pick.

#73 (Quinn), #69 (McBath), #68 (McKinley), #64 (Brandstater), #57 (Ayers), #62 (Schlueter), #48 (A. Smith), #46 (Bruton), #29 (Olsen), #18 (Moreno).

Ranking draft class years from 2005 and 2014, the 2009 class was the 2d worse based on average pick quality after the 2013 class of Sly Williams, Montee Ball, Kayvon, Q. Smith, T. King, V. Painter, and Zac Dysert. But the 2009 class had 10 picks compared to the 7 picks in the 2013 Broncos class.

The 2010 class with Tebow (....and DT, Decker, Beadles, JD Walton, and P Cox) was actually the 2d best draft class during that 10 year span, behind the 2006 class with Marshall and Doom.

Good stuff, thanks for the thorough breakdown. 2013 is pretty brutal with exception of Kayvon and Sly.

Hawgdriver
04-25-2017, 02:52 PM
Sly was a decent not excellent pick, #24 of 74, but Kayvon was below average at #49 of 74 in terms of their measurable contribution. I think that undersells Kayvon as a player, a guy I like a lot (miss u bro)...but you can only grade based on contribution. He didn't play that many snaps outside of special teams, like 5-10% of defensive plays.

Buff
04-25-2017, 03:04 PM
Ayers and Moreno were both solid contributors

Ayers 12 sacks over 5 seasons doesn't qualify as "solid" in my book. He was a disappointment.

Hawgdriver
04-25-2017, 03:11 PM
Ayers 12 sacks over 5 seasons doesn't qualify as "solid" in my book. He was a disappointment.

The AV tells the same story. Average of 3.6 per year, which is below "just a guy" level. Below what you expect for a first rounder. You need them to at least be starters (e.g. Sly Williams) with 6+ AV's (incidentally, Sly's average yearly AV has been 6.1).

7DnBrnc53
04-25-2017, 03:12 PM
The first five picks weren't the right selections:

1 (12) Knowshon Moreno: A fairly good player, but Orakpo would have been the better selection.
1 (18) Robert Ayers: Good DE, but wrong for a 3-4. Alex Mack should have been the pick. Denver was switching blocking schemes, and that moron McDiaper kept the same line in there.
2 (37) Alphonso Smith: Terrible pick and trade. However, if they drafted Shady here, that trade is probably forgotten today.
2 (48) Darcel McBath: I thought that this pick would work out, but he was a total bust. Sebastian Vollmer or Phil Loadholt would have been better here (and then trade away RT Ryan Harris away for value. He fit better in a zone scheme)
2 (64) Richard Quinn: Another idiotic pick. I think I read somewhere that Quinn didn't even expected to be drafted. If that's true, then it makes McDiaper look even worse. Pot Roast or Louis Vasquez should have been the pick.

Buff
04-25-2017, 03:15 PM
That Alphonso Smith trade was such a bush league trade - among the worst in franchise history arguably. "Here's a 1st next year (#14) for your 2nd this year (#37) because we're impatient and lazy."

Then we unloaded Smith in year 2 because he was such a dumpster fire.

Hawgdriver
04-25-2017, 03:18 PM
Who was that 1st next year, anyway?

I'll look it up.

Earl Thomas? The all-pro safety instrumental to Seattle's SB victory over the Broncos?

MOtorboat
04-25-2017, 03:32 PM
If the Broncos had drafted Orakpo instead of Knowshon Moreno they would not have another Super Bowl ring.

Think about that.

Buff
04-25-2017, 03:34 PM
If the Broncos had drafted Orakpo instead of Knowshon Moreno they would not have another Super Bowl ring.

Think about that.

Please go on with your flawed and silly logic.

MOtorboat
04-25-2017, 04:10 PM
Please go on with your flawed and silly logic.

Elway drafts Darius if they have Orakpo.

Hawgdriver
04-25-2017, 05:17 PM
Mo Turtledove!

MOtorboat
04-25-2017, 05:29 PM
Mo Turtledove!

I mean. I'm just saying. Butterfly effect and all...

Cugel
04-25-2017, 05:38 PM
If the Broncos had drafted Orakpo instead of Knowshon Moreno they would not have another Super Bowl ring.

Think about that.

Not just Orakpo. They also drafted Robert Ayers in the first round when Clay Matthews was on the board. So, would the Broncos have won the SB if they had Orakpo & Clay Matthews, but not Von Miller?

DenBronx
04-25-2017, 05:41 PM
We got a Lombardi out if it and that's all I care about. Alot of those players in that draft won't be playing much longer anyway. We drafted based on what we needed at the time and it all worked out.

Next chapter.

MOtorboat
04-25-2017, 05:42 PM
Not just Orakpo. They also drafted Robert Ayers in the first round when Clay Matthews was on the board. So, would the Broncos have won the SB if they had Orakpo & Clay Matthews, but not Von Miller?

Theoretically if you went back and had the Broncos pick all the all-pros and have the scrubs picked by the other teams, than yeah, probably.

HORSEPOWER 56
04-25-2017, 05:51 PM
Elway drafts Darius if they have Orakpo.

Not necessarily. Orakpo was a beast at first but struggled staying healthy the last few years in Washington, hence why he's a Titan now. It's possible that Elway would've drafted Miller anyway. At the time, Darius was a bigger "need" than Miller because we still had Doom and Ayers. He still drafted Miller who he thought was BPA. If we'd had Orakpo and Doom and Orakpo couldn't stay healthy, he may have drafted Miller anyway.

Cugel
04-25-2017, 05:51 PM
Theoretically if you went back and had the Broncos pick all the all-pros and have the scrubs picked by the other teams, than yeah, probably.

This is not some 6th round guy who slipped in the draft and surprised everybody. Orakpo & Matthews were consensus top 20 picks and that's where they were drafted and they more than justified those picks. Denver just had McMoron doing the drafting and we wound up with the likes of Ayers, Knowshon, Tebow, Alphonso Smith, Darcel McBath, etc.

HORSEPOWER 56
04-25-2017, 05:53 PM
Not just Orakpo. They also drafted Robert Ayers in the first round when Clay Matthews was on the board. So, would the Broncos have won the SB if they had Orakpo & Clay Matthews, but not Von Miller?

The answer to that is still no if they don't sign Manning. We weren't winning anything with Orton and Tebow.

Cugel
04-25-2017, 05:54 PM
Not necessarily. Orakpo was a beast at first but struggled staying healthy the last few years in Washington, hence why he's a Titan now. It's possible that Elway would've drafted Miller anyway. At the time, Darius was a bigger "need" than Miller because we still had Doom and Ayers. He still drafted Miller who he thought was BPA. If we'd had Orakpo and Doom and Orakpo couldn't stay healthy, he may have drafted Miller anyway.

Everybody in the NFL would have drafted Von Miller. He was the consensus best defensive player in the draft. It's just that unless you had McMoron losing 12 games you wouldn't have the #2 pick of the draft. In that case Von Miller would be a Buffalo Bill, cause they had the #3 pick and liked Von. They wound up with Marcel Dareus instead who has been a nice player, but no Hall of Famer. If Denver had won 1 more game they would have had the #6 pick of the draft, which would have been CB Patrick Peterson.

Cugel
04-25-2017, 05:58 PM
The answer to that is still no if they don't sign Manning. We weren't winning anything with Orton and Tebow.

Word. I got banned from the official forum (several times before I gave up posting there due to the censorship) for telling the truth to people who hated to hear it "those guys just flat aren't good enough. They suck. " Banned! :coffee:

Buff
04-25-2017, 06:00 PM
Everybody in the NFL would have drafted Von Miller. He was the consensus best defensive player in the draft. It's just that unless you had McMoron losing 12 games you wouldn't have the #2 pick of the draft. In that case Von Miller would be a Buffalo Bill, cause they had the #3 pick and liked Von. They wound up with Marcel Dareus instead who has been a nice player, but no Hall of Famer. If Denver had won 1 more game they would have had the #6 pick of the draft, which would have been CB Patrick Peterson.

He really wasn't though. There was a belief that Von might be a finesse pass rushing specialist who avoided contact and wasn't as tough on the run as a #2 pick ought to be. He was not even close to a consensus pick. You can't revise history when we were there and lived it right along side you!

MOtorboat
04-25-2017, 06:00 PM
This is not some 6th round guy who slipped in the draft and surprised everybody. Orakpo & Matthews were consensus top 20 picks and that's where they were drafted and they more than justified those picks. Denver just had McMoron doing the drafting and we wound up with the likes of Ayers, Knowshon, Tebow, Alphonso Smith, Darcel McBath, etc.

Lol, the "I knew better" and the "We shoulda drafted X" game. Always absurd.

Matthews got taken 26, so obviously he wasn't a consensus Top 20 pick, because he wasn't drafted in the Top 20. You're using what you know about that player now and projecting back. It's ridiculous.

MOtorboat
04-25-2017, 06:01 PM
He really wasn't though. There was a belief that Von might be a finesse pass rushing specialist who avoided contact and wasn't as tough on the run as a #2 pick ought to be. He was not even close to a consensus pick. You can't revise history when we were there and lived it right along side you!

The Broncos would have been privy to the failed drug test at the time, as well.

dogfish
04-25-2017, 08:23 PM
i didn't mind knowshon or ayers, but those three picks in the second round almost made me lose my mind. . . i believe my meltdown in the draft day thread was fairly epic-- but i felt absolutely justified, and time has vindicated me. . . just disastrous picks, all of them. . . giving up a future first for a friggin' nickel back because he had some interceptions in college is criminally stupid. . .

Jaded
04-25-2017, 11:25 PM
Two good things out of the Josh McDaniels Error; DT and Von Miller.

Oh...And Hillis parking his wife.

Canmore
04-26-2017, 12:30 AM
Two good things out of the Josh McDaniels Error; DT and Von Miller.

Oh...And Hillis parking his wife.

Can I get a big Amen!