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View Full Version : We are better then cleveland, according to this artivle



Krugan
04-12-2017, 12:46 PM
http://www.milehighreport.com/2017/4/11/15252904/dvoa-projects-broncos-as-second-worst-team-in-afc



Uhh ohhh

Al Wilson 4 Mayor
04-12-2017, 12:50 PM
I have two questions:

1. Is football outsiders respected?
2. Did we trade Miller, Wolfe, Ray, Marshall, Ward, Talib, and Harris?

Krugan
04-12-2017, 01:09 PM
I have two questions:

1. Is football outsiders respected?
2. Did we trade Miller, Wolfe, Ray, Marshall, Ward, Talib, and Harris?

I didnt write it, i just read it :P

But looking at recent history, they have been pretty close to being right about where we stand.

Freyaka
04-12-2017, 02:51 PM
I have two questions:

1. Is football outsiders respected?
2. Did we trade Miller, Wolfe, Ray, Marshall, Ward, Talib, and Harris?

Normally, yes...but the notion that we're somehow worse than every AFC team other than the browns is preposterous. We've gotten better than we were last year when we managed 9 wins, we will improve further in the draft. There is no way we're that bad off.

BroncoWave
04-12-2017, 03:15 PM
I have two questions:

1. Is football outsiders respected?
2. Did we trade Miller, Wolfe, Ray, Marshall, Ward, Talib, and Harris?

Yes, FO is pretty highly respected. Having said that, I can't agree with them projecting us out as the second worst team in the AFC. We are still returning most of a team that went 9-7.

Hawgdriver
04-12-2017, 03:15 PM
Denver's 2017 schedule is a beast, the AFC West is a tough division. The Broncos point differential of +472 (net points 2017 opponents scored in 2016) is 2d behind the +478 of the Raiders. The Opp Win % of 57.8% is the toughest in the league.

Compared to 2016's schedule, it's about the same or perhaps easier. The Broncos had the toughest SoS in 2016 and played vs the AFC South (-109 net 2016 points for division) and NFC South (+101). They played the Pats and Panthers (1st place schedule, +158). In 2017, it's AFC East (+61) and NFC East (+190) plus Bengals and Colts (+29, 3d place schedule oppt's).

Is Denver a worse team in 2017?

Losses:

Russell Okung
Sylvester Williams
DeMarcus Ware
Kayvon Webster
Dekoda Watson

Additions:
Ronald Leary
Menelik Watson
Domata Peko
Zach Kerr
Kasim Edebali
2017 draft class (with a compensatory 3d and some later comp picks)

Developing, possibly contributing (or contributing at a higher level) in 2017:

Shane Ray
Kalif Raymond
Paxton Lynch
Trevor Siemian
A.J. Derby
Jordan Taylor
Devontae Booker
Adam Gotsis
Will Parks
Justin Simmons

Possibly declining in production:

Talib (turns 32 next SB)
Ward (turns 31 in Dec.)
Emmanuel (turned 30 last month)
DT (turns 30 this Xmas)

Coaching staff is new, which generally results in worse performance, ceteris parabis, but it wasn't a 'red-button' firing, more of a shake-up in culture. Woods remains as legacy defense coach, although losing Wade is a major loss. Adding McCoy and Musgrave to the offense should be a major improvement over Kubiak and Dennison, but it's still difficult to learn a new system. It takes time and to add to it you have a QB controversy which means whoever starts will not have maximum reps in the new system.

On the whole, the 2017 Broncos are actually a solid team--no major losses outside of left tackle, a dominant secondary that is aging but is still in their prime (if nearing the end of it), and a shot of adrenaline from young players who should develop into more significant contributors (I'm looking at you, Shane Ray, Trevor Lynch, and Adam Gotsis). The coaching change is a net negative, but by all media reports the Broncos should have an NFL elite staff. In theory this was the top destination for coaching talent because the culture is a championship culture. The only absolute, glaring weakness on the team is left tackle.

My takeaway is that this is a playoff-contending team *if* the left tackle situation is addressed either by scheme, group cohesion, or personnel (including massive improvement from one of the 4-5 potential tacos already on the roster). Otherwise it's a worse version of the 2016 offense, and we know how that works out.

tl;dr--If the left tackle situation isn't A-gaping hole, I really like this team's odds in 2017.

BroncoWave
04-12-2017, 03:17 PM
Normally, yes...but the notion that we're somehow worse than every AFC team other than the browns is preposterous. We've gotten better than we were last year when we managed 9 wins, we will improve further in the draft. There is no way we're that bad off.

Just to nitpick one point, all 32 teams will have a chance to improve via the draft, so I wouldn't use that as a point in our favor for potentially having a better record this year.

DT88TheGreat
04-12-2017, 03:21 PM
There's absolutely noway the Broncos are the 2nd worst team in the AFC, I've got a feeling that Leary's attitude and mean/tough mindset will rub off on alot of the guys in the O line group and the unit will be much more improved. Denver will find there starting LT in round 3 or 4 of the draft.

Hawgdriver
04-12-2017, 03:22 PM
Denver will find there starting LT in round 3 or 4 of the draft.

You got a name for that player? :lol:

DT88TheGreat
04-12-2017, 03:35 PM
You got a name for that player? :lol:

Antonio Garcia.

Hawgdriver
04-12-2017, 06:15 PM
Antonio Garcia.

I wouldn't mind that. He seems to be a 2d round guy. Kinda soft, not a nasty dude like the Broncs want. Still, he's a stud athlete with good technique. I'd never expect him to walk into a starting job tho. None of these guys are ready day 1 type of guys. Stranger things have happened, but I'd never count on it.

Al Wilson 4 Mayor
04-13-2017, 12:03 AM
I didnt write it, i just read it :P

But looking at recent history, they have been pretty close to being right about where we stand.

I know you didn't write. I would have simply called you a name with a few adjectives for color.

sneakers
04-13-2017, 06:07 AM
Thank the Lord!

King87
04-13-2017, 09:18 PM
Someone in the AFCS is always a top three pick. The AFCN only has one consistent team. The AFCE has the Jets and the Bills.

This article can suck my dick.

Cugel
04-15-2017, 04:08 PM
Denver's 2017 schedule is a beast, the AFC West is a tough division. The Broncos point differential of +472 (net points 2017 opponents scored in 2016) is 2d behind the +478 of the Raiders. The Opp Win % of 57.8% is the toughest in the league.

Compared to 2016's schedule, it's about the same or perhaps easier. The Broncos had the toughest SoS in 2016 and played vs the AFC South (-109 net 2016 points for division) and NFC South (+101). They played the Pats and Panthers (1st place schedule, +158). In 2017, it's AFC East (+61) and NFC East (+190) plus Bengals and Colts (+29, 3d place schedule oppt's).

Is Denver a worse team in 2017?

Losses:

Russell Okung
Sylvester Williams
DeMarcus Ware
Kayvon Webster
Dekoda Watson

Additions:
Ronald Leary
Menelik Watson
Domata Peko
Zach Kerr
Kasim Edebali
2017 draft class (with a compensatory 3d and some later comp picks)

Developing, possibly contributing (or contributing at a higher level) in 2017:

Shane Ray
Kalif Raymond
Paxton Lynch
Trevor Siemian
A.J. Derby
Jordan Taylor
Devontae Booker
Adam Gotsis
Will Parks
Justin Simmons

Possibly declining in production:

Talib (turns 32 next SB)
Ward (turns 31 in Dec.)
Emmanuel (turned 30 last month)
DT (turns 30 this Xmas)

Coaching staff is new, which generally results in worse performance, ceteris parabis, but it wasn't a 'red-button' firing, more of a shake-up in culture. Woods remains as legacy defense coach, although losing Wade is a major loss. Adding McCoy and Musgrave to the offense should be a major improvement over Kubiak and Dennison, but it's still difficult to learn a new system. It takes time and to add to it you have a QB controversy which means whoever starts will not have maximum reps in the new system.

On the whole, the 2017 Broncos are actually a solid team--no major losses outside of left tackle, a dominant secondary that is aging but is still in their prime (if nearing the end of it), and a shot of adrenaline from young players who should develop into more significant contributors (I'm looking at you, Shane Ray, Trevor Lynch, and Adam Gotsis). The coaching change is a net negative, but by all media reports the Broncos should have an NFL elite staff. In theory this was the top destination for coaching talent because the culture is a championship culture. The only absolute, glaring weakness on the team is left tackle.

My takeaway is that this is a playoff-contending team *if* the left tackle situation is addressed either by scheme, group cohesion, or personnel (including massive improvement from one of the 4-5 potential tacos already on the roster). Otherwise it's a worse version of the 2016 offense, and we know how that works out.

tl;dr--If the left tackle situation isn't A-gaping hole, I really like this team's odds in 2017.

Uh, oh dude! Did you really throw "ceteris parabis" [all other things being equal] at the readers on this forum? Are you trying to cause them brain-lock? Tangling up their minds with deadly latin quotations? :laugh:

Cugel
04-15-2017, 04:13 PM
It takes time and to add to it you have a QB controversy which means whoever starts will not have maximum reps in the new system.

The QB controversy is going to continue all season long. Say Trevor wins the starting job in the pre-season. Does that mean he keeps it all season long, if Paxton shows signs of improvement? NO.

If he struggles or the team loses they will not hesitate to throw in Lynch. And the same thing goes for Trevor if Lynch starts. Either QB will be on a short hook, because this is still viewed as a championship defense and you don't want to waste that with a QB who is not doing his job well.

Hawgdriver
04-15-2017, 05:21 PM
The QB controversy is going to continue all season long. Say Trevor wins the starting job in the pre-season. Does that mean he keeps it all season long, if Paxton shows signs of improvement? NO.

If he struggles or the team loses they will not hesitate to throw in Lynch. And the same thing goes for Trevor if Lynch starts. Either QB will be on a short hook, because this is still viewed as a championship defense and you don't want to waste that with a QB who is not doing his job well.

Right. It would be best for the team if one dude got all the reps. Not going to happen unless one of them is injured or is markedly worse during camp.

Cugel
04-21-2017, 10:41 AM
Right. It would be best for the team if one dude got all the reps. Not going to happen unless one of them is injured or is markedly worse during camp.

I wonder how much of a handicap it will be to have a QB competition all season long. It might not be ideal, but how can they avoid it? Nobody really knows whether either of these 2 guys is the long term answer at QB. Both will have to get chances to prove themselves this year.

And if neither of them proves out, then Elway will go back to the draft in 2018 and draft another QB in the first round or 2nd round and develop that guy. And he'll keep doing that until he finds a top 10 QB - one way or another.

Hawgdriver
04-21-2017, 12:56 PM
I wonder how much of a handicap it will be to have a QB competition all season long. It might not be ideal, but how can they avoid it? Nobody really knows whether either of these 2 guys is the long term answer at QB. Both will have to get chances to prove themselves this year.

And if neither of them proves out, then Elway will go back to the draft in 2018 and draft another QB in the first round or 2nd round and develop that guy. And he'll keep doing that until he finds a top 10 QB - one way or another.

All this points to the need for improved QB simulation systems. Especially with the limited number of reps, the new system, and the competition. Plus as a coach you get way more data to evaluate which player to start.

As a pilot we used simulators all the time to get better. The technology is here. I hope the Broncos are using it.

Cugel
04-21-2017, 06:19 PM
All this points to the need for improved QB simulation systems. Especially with the limited number of reps, the new system, and the competition. Plus as a coach you get way more data to evaluate which player to start.

As a pilot we used simulators all the time to get better. The technology is here. I hope the Broncos are using it.

That's a good idea, but I wonder how you would simulate Justin Houston or Kalil Mack throwing you on your head if you held the ball too long? :laugh:

Hawgdriver
04-21-2017, 06:36 PM
That's a good idea, but I wonder how you would simulate Justin Houston or Kalil Mack throwing you on your head if you held the ball too long? :laugh:

Physical injury and pain would be ideal to simulate, but hard to do.

When you crash into the ground in an aircraft, it's a clear result. Same with QB simulation. You could have the VR goggles pop up with skull and crossbones and blood dripping from the top, maybe add your and Joel's laughter over the top of all that.

Cugel
04-22-2017, 10:47 AM
Physical injury and pain would be ideal to simulate, but hard to do.

When you crash into the ground in an aircraft, it's a clear result. Same with QB simulation. You could have the VR goggles pop up with skull and crossbones and blood dripping from the top, maybe add your and Joel's laughter over the top of all that.

You're probably right. I always thought the idea training tool would be a holo-deck like on Star Trek the Next Generation, but they ain't making that any time soon.

But, if they made the simulation of Denver's offensive line too realistic Siemian might be too terrified to start !

Hawgdriver
04-22-2017, 05:28 PM
You're probably right. I always thought the idea training tool would be a holo-deck like on Star Trek the Next Generation, but they ain't making that any time soon.

But, if they made the simulation of Denver's offensive line too realistic Siemian might be too terrified to start !

Do you know what is available right now? Have you tried it?

Cugel
04-22-2017, 06:21 PM
Do you know what is available right now? Have you tried it?

WEll, the Holodeck on the Enterprise in Star Trek utilized "transporter technology" to materialize objects for people to interact with, and it adjusted gravity artificially to boot in order to make the simulation undectectable from the real thing. I'm just guessing that kind of technology ain't around just yet. :coffee:

King87
04-22-2017, 06:23 PM
Cugel, for someone who is wrong and losses arguments a lot, you sure are smarmy. All that coffee will stain your teeth, you doucher. :welcome:

Cugel
04-24-2017, 10:03 PM
Cugel, for someone who is wrong and losses arguments a lot, you sure are smarmy. All that coffee will stain your teeth, you doucher. :welcome:

Ah, but I'm always right! Especially when I'm wrong? Or is it some other time. Hmmmn.

Hawgdriver
04-25-2017, 10:50 PM
We could ask Dak how it worked for him last year.

FanInAZ
04-26-2017, 01:05 AM
The OP says the Broncos will be the 2nd worst team in the AFC. If you click on the link, you'll see we're projected to win 6 games. So only the Browns will finish will fewer than 6 wins? Thatís something that just doesnít seem right, so I went through the AFC standings for the last 10 years to see just how many teams actually finished with fewer than 6 win in each of those seasons:

2016: 4
2015: 5
2014: 4
2013: 4
2012: 4
2011: 3
2010: 4
2009: 3
2008: 5
2007: 5

5 teams: 3 seasons
4 teams: 5 seasons
3 teams: 2 seasons
2 teams: 0 seasons
1 team: 0 seasons

So if the Broncos finish as the 2nd worst team in a conference with just 6 wins, it would undoubtedly be unprecedented in NFL history. It definitely has come close to happening in the AFC over the past 10 seasons.

olathebroncofan
04-26-2017, 01:32 AM
Coaching staff is new, which generally results in worse performance, ceteris parabis, but it wasn't a 'red-button' firing, more of a shake-up in culture.

Uh, oh dude! Did you really throw "ceteris parabis" [all other things being equal] at the readers on this forum? Are you trying to cause them brain-lock? Tangling up their minds with deadly latin quotations? :laugh:

I just read through it and thought it was an odd place to mention our center. I need to hit the books.

Cugel
04-26-2017, 02:31 PM
The OP says the Broncos will be the 2nd worst team in the AFC. If you click on the link, you'll see we're projected to win 6 games. So only the Browns will finish will fewer than 6 wins? That’s something that just doesn’t seem right, so I went through the AFC standings for the last 10 years to see just how many teams actually finished with fewer than 6 win in each of those seasons:

2016: 4
2015: 5
2014: 4
2013: 4
2012: 4
2011: 3
2010: 4
2009: 3
2008: 5
2007: 5

5 teams: 3 seasons
4 teams: 5 seasons
3 teams: 2 seasons
2 teams: 0 seasons
1 team: 0 seasons

So if the Broncos finish as the 2nd worst team in a conference with just 6 wins, it would undoubtedly be unprecedented in NFL history. It definitely has come close to happening in the AFC over the past 10 seasons.

Can you imagine a team with this defense winning 6 games? :laugh:

Me neither. Maybe if both QBs get their arms ripped off by Joey Bosa in week one, and Von Miller goes on the IR. In short, a perfect storm of calamity like happened in 1999 when they lost Elway, Steve Atwater and T.D. and fell to 6-10.

Otherwise I'd say 7-8 wins is the basement, and 10 or 11 wins is the maximum. I don't see this team winning 12 games with this brutal schedule, and Trevor Siemian as the starter.

Even if the bottom falls out, there's no way the Broncos are drafting in the top 5. In 2011 when they had the #2 pick after winning only 4 games under McMoron the year before, if they had won even one more game I think they would have had the #6 pick (Patrick Peterson).

Some times a team that won only 6 or 7 games has the #10 pick. So, if you wanna suck for Luck, you really have to suck!

Freyaka
04-26-2017, 02:37 PM
Can you imagine a team with this defense winning 6 games? :laugh:

Me neither. Maybe if both QBs get their arms ripped off by Joey Bosa in week one, and Von Miller goes on the IR. In short, a perfect storm of calamity like happened in 1999 when they lost Elway, Steve Atwater and T.D. and fell to 6-10.

Otherwise I'd say 7-8 wins is the basement, and 10 or 11 wins is the maximum. I don't see this team winning 12 games with this brutal schedule, and Trevor Siemian as the starter.

Even if the bottom falls out, there's no way the Broncos are drafting in the top 5. In 2011 when they had the #2 pick after winning only 4 games under McMoron the year before, if they had won even one more game I think they would have had the #6 pick (Patrick Peterson).

Some times a team that won only 6 or 7 games has the #10 pick. So, if you wanna suck for Luck, you really have to suck!

The schedule always looks more brutal on paper at the beginning of the year. Teams that did good last year are going to drop and vice versa. Happens every year.

Cugel
04-26-2017, 02:46 PM
The schedule always looks more brutal on paper at the beginning of the year. Teams that did good last year are going to drop and vice versa. Happens every year.

You're right about that. Last year all the teams that were scheduled to play the Panthers were looking at that game as a real challenge against the defending NFC Champion only to watch as the Panthers fell to 6-10. So, those schedules looked brutal prior to the season, because Carolina was 15-1 the year before, but nine games worse than that in 2016.

That's gotta happen to some teams this year.

Freyaka
04-26-2017, 02:51 PM
You're right about that. Last year all the teams that were scheduled to play the Panthers were looking at that game as a real challenge against the defending NFC Champion only to watch as the Panthers fell to 6-10. So, those schedules looked brutal prior to the season, because Carolina was 15-1 the year before, but nine games worse than that in 2016.

That's gotta happen to some teams this year.

The Raiders and Chiefs are going to face a drop off this year. At least that's my belief based on little more than the fact that I hate them :D