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View Full Version : Tanier: Do the Broncos miss Peyton Manning?



VonDoom
12-22-2016, 10:09 AM
Some interesting stats in here, but this article is more about the flaws that we know about holding us back (mainly focused on the inability to stop the run). Good read, though:



As the Broncos enter a two-game stretch against the Chiefs and Raiders that will decide their playoff fate, surely Manning's audible-calling, decision-making, leadership or intangibles might be missed. At the very least, Manning's presence would keep Aqib Talib from running his mouth in the locker room after a loss. That's worth something, right?

Maybe. Or maybe this is just misplaced nostalgia at the end of a frustrating season.


If Manning’s experience and leadership helped the Broncos sustain drives, however, the effect was small. Last year, the Broncos went three-and-out on 27.6 percent of drives: 30th in the NFL. They also suffered interceptions on a whopping 12 percent of drives in 2015, second-worst in the NFL, as opposed to 5.5 percent (10th overall) this year. It’s hard to argue that a 3.7 percentage point bump in stalled drives is worth a greater number of extended drives if it also comes with a 6.5 percentage point increase in interceptions.

If Manning's audibles and intangibles helped the 2015 Broncos in ways that the 2016 team needs, it should show up somewhere on the stat sheet: third-down passing, fourth-quarter passing or in some other high-leverage situation. But the table shows that Siemian has been better in all of these situations. Again, a well-chosen audible on first down may be nice, but not averaging over an interception per game is much nicer.


The Broncos won several games this year using their old takeaway-heavy formula. But recently, the turnovers have stopped coming. The Broncos defense has caused zero turnovers in the team's last four losses (Raiders, Chiefs, Titans, Patriots). Last season, the Broncos defense forced at least one turnover in all but four regular and postseason games. Three of those four games—against the Colts, Chiefs and Raiders—were losses. (The Broncos beat the Packers with zero takeaways and lost to the Steelers with two).

Turnovers have dried up, in part, because the run defense is buckling. Opponents average 127.9 yards per game and 4.2 yards per rush against the Broncos this season after averaging 83.6 and 3.3 last season. The Broncos allowed 154, 180 and 136 rushing yards in the last three weeks, respectively; they gave up 218 in the loss to the Raiders. Opponents face fewer of the third-and-longs that lead to sacks and turnovers than they did last season, and the problem has gotten worse in the last month.


The Broncos also miss Manning a little. But not just Manning.

The Broncos miss C.J. Anderson in a big way. His replacements haven't cut it or stayed healthy.

They miss defensive tackle Malik Jackson and linebacker Danny Trevathan in the middle of the defense. Replacements Jared Crick and Todd Davis have not been nearly as good.

They miss veterans on offense like Evan Mathis, Owen Daniels and Ronnie Hillman—not great players, but system fits who, once again, were better than their cost-effective replacements.

The Broncos miss lots of players from 2015 that they lost due to injuries and the salary cap. Now they cannot run the ball well or stop the run as dominantly as they need to. A team needs a very good quarterback to win under those circumstances. The Broncos haven't had one of those in two years.



http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2682034-with-the-playoffs-on-the-line-should-the-broncos-miss-peyton-manning

Personally, I still think fixing the o-line is our first priority, but figuring out how to stop the run again is right up there. Teams have realized we can't stop the run, which is one reason our pass defense numbers are so off the charts - most teams don't even bother trying. Our defense, as great as it is, will never operate at its peak capability until we make teams play to our strengths, namely the pass rush and secondary.

Northman
12-22-2016, 10:26 AM
To some degree the Broncos do miss Manning, they miss his experience and ability to recognize defenses. But even with all that Manning still had issues with consistency last year and often times threw up ducks and floaters that failed to reach their targets unless they were the other team. Stat wise Trevor is actually doing a good job in his first year as a starter as he has thrown for over 3,000 yds with 16 TD's and 8 Int's. The issues for the team has a lot to do with the Oline, RB inconsistency, and the losses on the defense this past offseason. Denver has some work to do in terms of fixing some problems on this team but having Manning on this team this year would not really change much because of where he is at as a aging QB.

Dapper Dan
12-22-2016, 11:09 AM
That's an odd way to spell CJ Anderson.

King87
12-22-2016, 01:14 PM
To some degree the Broncos do miss Manning, they miss his experience and ability to recognize defenses. But even with all that Manning still had issues with consistency last year and often times threw up ducks and floaters that failed to reach their targets unless they were the other team. Stat wise Trevor is actually doing a good job in his first year as a starter as he has thrown for over 3,000 yds with 16 TD's and 8 Int's. The issues for the team has a lot to do with the Oline, RB inconsistency, and the losses on the defense this past offseason. Denver has some work to do in terms of fixing some problems on this team but having Manning on this team this year would not really change much because of where he is at as a aging QB.

The only 'way' I would say that we would have wanted Manning back as a QB this way would be if he was willing to be a backup, or if the defense lost nothing and was as dominant as before.

The first scenario would have still been tricky because if any young guy ****s up we all know about that QB drama. The second scenario is unlikely because each year so many guys are up for contract. When you have a defense as stacked as ours was, literally a historical defense, someone's getting paid.

i just want that Omaha life, man.