The Ringer: Denver is running out of luck

[VonDoom]

I'm surprised the media hasn't been coming at us with "What's wrong with the Broncos?" stories this year, but this is certainly one. If you watch this team every week, none of this should surprise you:


In 2015, the Broncos gave up 3.3 yards per carry (best in the league) and 83.6 rushing yards per game (third best). This year, it took them only 12 games to give up more total rushing yards than they allowed all of last season. They came into this week’s matchup with the Titans surrendering an average of 122.8 yards per game (28th) and 4.2 yards per rush (17th), and those numbers won’t improve after Denver gave up 180 yards on 42 rushes on Sunday. It was the sixth time this year an opponent reached 140 yards on the ground, something that happened just once last season.


The best antidote to an aggressive upfield pass rusher like Miller has always been, and continues to be, a good run game. Denver no longer has the ability to make its opponents one-dimensional, so it can’t unleash its dominant pass rush in the same way it did last year.


With Anderson out for the year with a torn meniscus, the future doesn’t look too bright for the Denver run game. Part of the problem stems from the retooled Broncos offensive line — featuring disappointing free-agent acquisitions Russell Okung and Donald Stephenson at the tackle spots — failing to open any holes to run through, but neither Booker nor Forsett provide the type of “create my own yards even when the blocking isn’t there” ability that Anderson brings.



There’s no doubt that the Broncos deserved to win the Super Bowl last season; the way they dominated opposing quarterbacks was a thing of beauty. But they were also incredibly consistent in close games. This season, it’s been a different story. In a few cases, it’s been the result of key coaching decisions, and in others, it’s been a lack of execution on one side of the ball or the other. But with four out of Denver’s five losses this year coming in one-score games, the Broncos’ penchant for late-game magic hasn’t been nearly so dependable.

https://theringer.com/shouldnt-the-broncos-be-better-ca1b60c682ee#.ainyar76o

[BroncoWave]

Pretty much. There was no way that the defense bailing us out with late-game miracle after late-game miracle was going to be a successful long-term strategy.

[MasterShake]

I guess this season has been better than I thought it would be so I guess nothing really surprises me. Our offensive line is still a work in progress, our running game still stinks, and suddenly our run defense is a big liability. That should come as a surprise to no one who watched us lose some key players like Malik Jackson, having Mike Anderson go down early, and a slew of other things.

To me, our luck ran out when the clock hit 00:00 at the Super Bowl. I knew that meant Manning was gone, we were going into the next season with a leadership vacuum, and that we were going to lose some players. Not only that, but we were going to lose that fire of "Win one for Peyton" or "Win one for Ware". And you know what? That is the deal we made in order to win Super Bowl 50. We. Won. Super Bowl. FIFTY. That was and is still awesome. That can carry my stupid-ass fandom for a few years honestly, I just want us to be competitive. And last time I checked even with all of our problems this season we still are. That tells me that our coaching is pretty good and we still have some talent to work with. The problem is execution right now. Missed blocks, fumbles, dropped catches, etc. There is just no excuse for play like that.

To be honest I'm more optimistic about the Broncos moving forward than I was before the season started. Trevor Siemian has impressed the hell out of me and for all of it's faults our defense is still a monster. As frustrating as it is to lose games, I know that next Sunday I'm going to be as pumped as I was the last time they played. I still enjoy watching them, and until that changes I will be here cheering them on despite our "luck". If I was a Browns fan I would have moved on to something more exciting like book clubs years ago.

[MasterShake]

Pretty much. There was no way that the defense bailing us out with late-game miracle after late-game miracle was going to be a successful long-term strategy.

I'm reminded of Happy Gilmore when he got the hole-in-one and says, "Oh, man. That was so much easier than putting. I should just try to get the ball in one shot every time." Of course it would be great to average 19 points on offense and have your defense win every game. :lol:

[OrangeHoof]

Not hard to figure. Can't run the ball. Can't stop the run. That's the equation for a long afternoon. Simien piles up 330 yards passing and the team only scores 10 points? That's because they can't convert on the 3rd-and-shorts needed to sustain drives. Combine that with the defense not able to get the big stops on 3rd-and-shorts to get off the field and you understand why teams like the Falcons, Titans and Raiders could beat us.

Too late to do much about either problem this late in the season. Just focus on fixing them for next year. Hey, there is still enough talent to win a playoff game or two. Just don't see them winning it all.

[NightTerror218]

Malik is missed but the fact we lost him and our would be starting DE bwfore season and had to move on to 3rd and 4th options did not help.

Combined with the loss of travathan which is a biggwr loss to me than malik because he was the main coverage LB and combined with marshall both were tackling machines who were near or at 100 tackles a season. Last season these two were all over field and nobody got passed them on ground.

[Denver Native (Carol)]

I totally agree with MasterShake. With Peyton retiring, leaving two rookie QBs, losing Jackson, and Trevathan, etc., although I would have loved for the Broncos to repeat what they did last year, to me, it would have been a miracle for that to happen. And there are still 3 games left. Just maybe the Broncos will make the playoffs. If I remember correctly, Carolina was projected to be one of the top teams this year, and they have won 5 games so far this year, with their MVP QB. IMO, the Carolina fans should be feeling much worse than the Bronco fans.

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

Malik is missed but the fact we lost him and our would be starting DE bwfore season and had to move on to 3rd and 4th options did not help.

Combined with the loss of travathan which is a biggwr loss to me than malik because he was the main coverage LB and combined with marshall both were tackling machines who were near or at 100 tackles a season. Last season these two were all over field and nobody got passed them on ground.

We've also lost Antoine Smith who got a lot of reps last year. I don't know if Crick would have even made the roster last year.

[MasterShake]

I totally agree with MasterShake. With Peyton retiring, leaving two rookie QBs, losing Jackson, and Trevathan, etc., although I would have loved for the Broncos to repeat what they did last year, to me, it would have been a miracle for that to happen. And there are still 3 games left. Just maybe the Broncos will make the playoffs. If I remember correctly, Carolina was projected to be one of the top teams this year, and they have won 5 games so far this year, with their MVP QB. IMO, the Carolina fans should be feeling much worse than the Bronco fans.

Yeah you can point to several teams that were "supposed" to be world beaters and have been disappointing. In the AFC alone the Bengals, Colts, and Chargers were all projected to be division winners by many and now look where they are. Bottom line it's hard to win in the NFL let alone repeat as champions. I'm not going to act like an entitled Pats fan and be all spoiled about it. :lol:

[Tned]

Yeah you can point to several teams that were "supposed" to be world beaters and have been disappointing. In the AFC alone the Bengals, Colts, and Chargers were all projected to be division winners by many and now look where they are. Bottom line it's hard to win in the NFL let alone repeat as champions. I'm not going to act like an entitled Pats fan and be all spoiled about it. :lol:

I saw a tweet from Vic Lombardi yesterday saying something to the effect that he totally underestimated what Manning brought to the table and how important he was to the offense, even as hobbled and everything as he was. As bad as the offense was, as we've seen it really could get worse.

[BroncoJoe]

I saw a tweet from Vic Lombardi yesterday saying something to the effect that he totally underestimated what Manning brought to the table and how important he was to the offense, even as hobbled and everything as he was. As bad as the offense was, as we've seen it really could get worse.

Much to my surprise. The Manning effect was real. I really didn't think we could get worse.

[Denver Native (Carol)]

I saw a tweet from Vic Lombardi yesterday saying something to the effect that he totally underestimated what Manning brought to the table and how important he was to the offense, even as hobbled and everything as he was. As bad as the offense was, as we've seen it really could get worse.

Vic Lombardi ‏@VicLombardi 21h

You aint lying. I know I blatantly misread that last year. Totally undervalued PFM.

Justin McDonald
‏@JMac1138

@VicLombardi watching this offense is giving me a lot more appreciation for what Peyton was able to accomplish last year.

[Tned]

Much to my surprise. The Manning effect was real. I really didn't think we could get worse.

When the two of them combined to be the 31st worst passer, you didn't think it could get worse. This year, our QBs are probably better statistically than 31st, but actual production is far worse from where I stand.

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

When the two of them combined to be the 31st worst passer, you didn't think it could get worse. This year, our QBs are probably better statistically than 31st, but actual production is far worse from where I stand.

It's hard to say; the defense scored a lot last year too.

[BigDaddyBronco]

I wonder if our OLine is grading out worse than last year. It seems that way, but it is hard to tell. The running game was better last year, we averages 4.2 yards per carry last year (Hillman averaged 4.2 himself), this year 3.7 yards per carry (Booker 3.4). That is both on the line and the RB.

I'm thinking the play calling is having an effect as well. Seems like we are limited in the types of runs we will try and that our early game gameplan is heavy on the pass.

[MasterShake]

When the two of them combined to be the 31st worst passer, you didn't think it could get worse. This year, our QBs are probably better statistically than 31st, but actual production is far worse from where I stand.

I don't know, I think the Manning effect was more the leadership he produced and the respect he commanded. I'd say Siemian is playing better than either Manning or Osweiler did last year.

Siemian 2016 11 games started:

2,730 yards 7 INT 16 TD with a 89.7 QBR

Manning 2015 10 Games:

2,249 yards 17 INT 9 TD 67.9 QBR

So you are correct that the QBs are better statistically, but the production feels off. The 3rd down struggles are real head scratchers. It's going to be tough to get help on the O-Line moving forward.

[Northman]

I wonder if our OLine is grading out worse than last year. It seems that way, but it is hard to tell. The running game was better last year, we averages 4.2 yards per carry last year (Hillman averaged 4.2 himself), this year 3.7 yards per carry (Booker 3.4). That is both on the line and the RB.

I'm thinking the play calling is having an effect as well. Seems like we are limited in the types of runs we will try and that our early game gameplan is heavy on the pass.


With 3 games to go we are currently ranked 27th. Last year we finished the regular season 20th.

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

With 3 games to go we are currently ranked 27th. Last year we finished the regular season 20th.

We finished 20th in what category?

[Northman]

We finished 20th in what category?


Offensive line ranking.

[VonDoom]

I don't know, I think the Manning effect was more the leadership he produced and the respect he commanded. I'd say Siemian is playing better than either Manning or Osweiler did last year.

Siemian 2016 11 games started:

2,730 yards 7 INT 16 TD with a 89.7 QBR

Manning 2015 10 Games:

2,249 yards 17 INT 9 TD 67.9 QBR

So you are correct that the QBs are better statistically, but the production feels off. The 3rd down struggles are real head scratchers. It's going to be tough to get help on the O-Line moving forward.

Not having any running threat will inflate the passing numbers a bit. Overall, I think if I told you these passing numbers at the beginning of the year, we'd all have taken that happily. But we're one dimensional on offense right now, and that's not going to change until the offseason. Remember that game against the Rams two years ago, where we had a similar run/pass split and we lost? We committed to the run after that, to varying success before losing in the playoffs. This game reminded me a lot of that one.

You can't just single one thing out, though. Everything feeds off each other. That's what's happened with the defense. Our pass defense is still lights out. Why? Because we have great pass rushers and corners. But like this article said, teams know they can run on us. So why even attempt to pass regularly unless they have to? Teams can wear us down and grind out clock by running, where last year that wasn't the case. That's why the defense seems like it's slipped from last year. We also lead the league in three and outs on offense, which then puts the defense right back out there. Rinse and repeat.

I too have hope for the future, though. Teams can turn it around in one year, and we're not even bad. We're just not able to sustain the way we've been playing. We have to hit on some early draft picks and Elway has to add some key components in FA. No reason we can't be a top team again next year.

[NightTerror218]

I don't know, I think the Manning effect was more the leadership he produced and the respect he commanded. I'd say Siemian is playing better than either Manning or Osweiler did last year.

Siemian 2016 11 games started:

2,730 yards 7 INT 16 TD with a 89.7 QBR

Manning 2015 10 Games:

2,249 yards 17 INT 9 TD 67.9 QBR

So you are correct that the QBs are better statistically, but the production feels off. The 3rd down struggles are real head scratchers. It's going to be tough to get help on the O-Line moving forward.

But manning made plays when he had to and was clutch.

[HORSEPOWER 56]

We miss PFM because he was a coach on the field. He could diagnose a defense pre snap better than anyone and changed protections effortlessly. Now, as soon as Seimian's helmet mic gets cut off, the offense is on its own. If the defense changes their look, we don't/can't adjust. Never undervalue the importance of a field general. Manning, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers are great more for their mind than their ability to spin it.

[silkamilkamonico]

I wonder if our OLine is grading out worse than last year. It seems that way, but it is hard to tell. The running game was better last year, we averages 4.2 yards per carry last year (Hillman averaged 4.2 himself), this year 3.7 yards per carry (Booker 3.4). That is both on the line and the RB.

I'm thinking the play calling is having an effect as well. Seems like we are limited in the types of runs we will try and that our early game gameplan is heavy on the pass.

Don't have manning audibling out of bad situations and putting the offense in a better situatiin.

[dogfish]

We miss PFM because he was a coach on the field. He could diagnose a defense pre snap better than anyone and changed protections effortlessly. Now, as soon as Seimian's helmet mic gets cut off, the offense is on its own. If the defense changes their look, we don't/can't adjust. Never undervalue the importance of a field general. Manning, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers are great more for their mind than their ability to spin it.

we're missing CJ in this aspect. . . i have heard a number of times how studious he is, and how much manning loved him for his preparation and cerebral play. . . our youngsters were supposed to lean on him this year, and it's absolutely hurting us to not have him out there. . .