The Good and the Bad: Week 12

[BroncoWave]

I am numb right now. What a horrible loss.

Good:

Sanders - He was our entire offense tonight. Player of the game IMO.

Miller - Co-player of the game. What a monster. It's a joke if he doesn't win DPOY.

No Fly Zone - The whole secondary was beast tonight,minus Roby at the end.

Siemian - He was a stylegod in the second half. What a performance.

Bad:

Special teams - What a total failure by that unit. Probably cost us the game.

Norwood - Seriously cut that guy. He is trash. Yash level trash.

Right tackles - My God they were bad. So bad.

Kubiak - Kicking the fg was the worst possible decision. Basically guaranteed a loss. So horrible.

I'm on my phone so didn't want to type too much tonight. Feel free to add.

[Edmonton Bronco Fan]

Right tackles - My God they were bad. So bad.


I thought Stephenson actually did a hell of a job handling Houston in the 2nd half.

Maybe throw Derby in the 'good' category as well.

[Simple Jaded]

I loved the call to go for FG, was the only chance to win.

[Tned]

I loved the call to go for FG, was the only chance to win.

And if he didn't take the big divot, but instead kicked as clean as he normally does, he would have had plenty of leg. I have no problem going for the win. The way the defense was playing they might not have even stopped the Chiefs if Broncos had punted.

[silkamilkamonico]

I think Kubes should have just went for it. Punting basically concedes a tie, hich puts Denver basically 2 games back to Oakland in the division.

[Bronco4ever]

Bad: How many defensive penalties did we commit in KC's last drive in regulation and in overtime? There was quite a few offsides, a 12 men on the field, ect. We helped them move down the field tremendously on stupid penalties.

[Simple Jaded]

And if he didn't take the big divot, but instead kicked as clean as he normally does, he would have had plenty of leg. I have no problem going for the win. The way the defense was playing they might not have even stopped the Chiefs if Broncos had punted.

Yeah, defense hadn't stopped much since Fowler's TD, I think they stopped them once. Which was in OT.

[Simple Jaded]

Bad: How many defensive penalties did we commit in KC's last drive in regulation and in overtime? There was quite a few offsides, a 12 men on the field, ect. We helped them move down the field tremendously on stupid penalties.

Two pretty chickenshit PI's.

[Joel]

I think Kubes should have just went for it. Punting basically concedes a tie, hich puts Denver basically 2 games back to Oakland in the division.
No, it would've put us 1½ games back, so we'd only need to win one more game than Oakland, then beat them in Denver to end the year. If we do that now we'll STILL be tied, and split the head-to-head, so the next tiebreak is division record: Where tonight makes us 1-3.

[aberdien]

Kubiak played to win the game. I will not fault a man for trying to win the game. C'est la vie.

P.S. John Fox sucks

[I Eat Staples]

And if he didn't take the big divot, but instead kicked as clean as he normally does, he would have had plenty of leg. I have no problem going for the win. The way the defense was playing they might not have even stopped the Chiefs if Broncos had punted.

They only had 55 seconds, there was absolutely no chance they score if we punt.

I know we're supposed to "have faith" or whatever in every player on the team, but McMannus and almost every other kicker can't make a 62 yard FG in a game.

[Simple Jaded]

They only had 55 seconds, there was absolutely no chance they score if we punt.

I know we're supposed to "have faith" or whatever in every player on the team, but McMannus and almost every other kicker can't make a 62 yard FG in a game.

They went 40 yards in three plays and didn't break a sweat.

Besides, the point is they wanted to win the game, not tie it.

[aberdien]

If us punting the ball was ensuring a tie, I would have preferred a loss anyway. What a gutless way to go out.

[I Eat Staples]

They went 40 yards in three plays and didn't break a sweat.

But time was about to run out on them, and even if the punt was a touchback that would leave them short of FG range.

[Bronco4ever]

If we were ok with a long field goal, we should have just ran the ball, get the clock down to 5 seconds or so, and then kick it. We gave them an opportunity by not converting the passes.

[I Eat Staples]

And I honestly think KC turning it over was more likely than McMannus making a 62 yarder.

But playing for a tie is not bad in that scenario. We're going to have a hard time even making the playoffs now, let alone winning the division. I don't think 10-6 will make the playoffs in the AFC, Miami and Buffalo are playing too well right now.

[Simple Jaded]

There are countless people on here complaining about how conservative Kubiak is, I guess our P*triot Envy only goes so far.

[Simple Jaded]

If we were ok with a long field goal, we should have just ran the ball, get the clock down to 5 seconds or so, and then kick it. We gave them an opportunity by not converting the passes.

It was 4th down.

The play before that was a perfectly thrown pass to the Chefs redzone that was dropped?

[BroncoWave]

The more I think about it, I will give kubes a SLIGHT pass for the decision. We're fighting for a playoff spot and probably don't have too many good chances for wins left. He probably felt like like we had a chance to steal one here and went for it.

I still hate the decision in a vacuum, but I guess I get it looking at the bigger picture.

[I Eat Staples]

It was 4th down.

The play before that was a perfectly thrown pass to the Chefs redzone that was dropped?

The pass was an absolute beauty, but to be fair that was also a tough catch to make. It could have been caught, probably should have been, but i'm not going to be too hard on Fowler for not coming down with it.

I do feel bad for Trevor though, he was fantastic in the 2nd half. Should have won the game for us in the 4th quarter, and should have won the game for us in OT, twice.

[Bronco4ever]

It was 4th down.

The play before that was a perfectly thrown pass to the Chefs redzone that was dropped?

I'm just saying run on 2nd and 3rd down, get a few yards cushion, and then kick the ball. We probably would've won had Fowler caught that 3rd down pass though.

[Simple Jaded]

The pass was an absolute beauty, but to be fair that was also a tough catch to make. It could have been caught, probably should have been, but i'm not going to be too hard on Fowler for not coming down with it.

I do feel bad for Trevor though, he was fantastic in the 2nd half. Should have won the game for us in the 4th quarter, and should have won the game for us in OT.

'Twas a dime!

[Simple Jaded]

I'm just saying run on 2nd and 3rd down, get a few yards cushion, and then kick the ball. We probably would've won had Fowler caught that 3rd down pass though.

I don't disagree with running it at all, but this is the exact opposite of what we've been collectively complaining about for over five seasons.

[Magnificent Seven]

It looks like Broncos are done for AFC West Title race. However, they can stay focus on the AFC wild-card race.

[Simple Jaded]

I know RT had its issues but Garcia was by far the worst player on the field once Sampro was benched, and that's with Okung giving up a safety.

[Bronco4ever]

I don't disagree with running it at all, but this is the exact opposite of what we've been collectively complaining about for over five seasons.

I agree. All I'm saying is that if Kubes was willing to try a long kick, he might as well have run it twice and give us the last crack instead of giving KC time to go down field and score.

[scott.475]

The good: we can finally call the Sambraillo experiment over, probably Okung too.

Silver linings people, looking for silver linungs.

[silkamilkamonico]

No, it would've put us 1½ games back, so we'd only need to win one more game than Oakland, then beat them in Denver to end the year. If we do that now we'll STILL be tied, and split the head-to-head, so the next tiebreak is division record: Where tonight makes us 1-3.

Yea, 1.5, meaning essentially we have to make up 2 wins. You play to win the game.

[BroncoWave]

Yea, 1.5, meaning essentially we have to make up 2 wins. You play to win the game.

If we finish with the same record as Miami, which looks like a distinct possibility, a tie tonight would have put us in the playoffs

[silkamilkamonico]

We can still very much earn our way into the playoffs. If it comes to a situation like the Shanahan days where we're backpeddaling into the playoffs hoping other teams lose because we can't win games late in the year when they mean something, then we don't deserve to be in there anyways. I still like that Kubiak was thinking about the division, but I just think he should have went for it instead of kicking the FG.

[Valar Morghulis]

The good..... Going for the field goal

The bad..... Missing the field goal

The good.... First half defense

The bad.... Second half defense

The good.... Second half offense

The bad..... First half offense

The awesome..... he-man and von

The shocking...... unsportsmanlike conduct by Kubes

The I'm now a little concerned about their talent level....roby

The Wtf .....norwood, Webster, okung, sambo,

The pull my hair out... Penalties

And the qboft..... Second half Trevor

[Joel]

They went 40 yards in three plays and didn't break a sweat.

Besides, the point is they wanted to win the game, not tie it.
40 yds from inside their 20 would've only gotten them to midfield. Santos had to doink it in as time expired from where they DID kick it: Take the tie.

[I Eat Staples]

I'm not sure that we'll make the playoffs. If we lose to Oakland and NE, that's at least 6 losses. I don't think 10-6 gets us into the playoffs.

[Joel]

Yea, 1.5, meaning essentially we have to make up 2 wins. You play to win the game.
Now we have to make up 3, so I guess 1 loss is really 1½ losses.

[Joel]

I'm not sure that we'll make the playoffs. If we lose to Oakland and NE, that's at least 6 losses. I don't think 10-6 gets us into the playoffs.
I bet 10-6 is good enough for a wildcard. We and KC aren't the only ones fighting each other over a wildcard spot: The Bills still host the Dolphins later this year (and go to the Black Hole next week.) And Miami also has the Ravens and a home game against NE* left. They can plausibly drop 3 of their last 5, and Buffalo can definitely drop 2. 10-6 isn't a gimme at this point (in any sense) but if we can get there it's usually good enough.

10-5-1 CERTAINLY would be.

[Simple Jaded]

The good..... Going for the field goal

The bad..... Missing the field goal

The good.... First half defense

The bad.... Second half defense

The good.... Second half offense

The bad..... First half offense

The awesome..... he-man and von

The shocking...... unsportsmanlike conduct by Kubes

The I'm now a little convened about their talent level....roby

The Wtf .....norwood, Webster, okung, sambo,

The pull my hair out... Penalties

And the qboft..... Second half Trevor

/thread

[Simple Jaded]

40 yds from inside their 20 would've only gotten them to midfield. Santos had to doink it in as time expired from where they DID kick it: Take the tie.

Yeah, they weren't hurting for time either, didn't clock the ball and didn't go for sidelines. The D was Swiss cheese.

[Simple Jaded]

You know what sucks? The Broncos would've been better off if Okung didn't recover that fumble in the endzone. Damn OL can't even **** up right.

[Valar Morghulis]

/thread

You just ended the thread, then made two more posts. Wtf are you playing at?

[Simple Jaded]

You just ended the thread, then made two more posts. Wtf are you playing at?

I can't be trusted.

[Simple Jaded]

And one more thing, Von Miller is un-****ing-believable.

[Watchthemiddle]

Let's get back on track MODS

The good - Von being Von and T Sim's ability to make plays with his legs.

The bad - special teams

THE ugly - 3rd and long from under the 30th, the Broncos giving up a 1st down to keep the drivery moving with 2:22 left

[Timmy!]

Screw the fg. If you wanna go for the win, then give the offense one more play, not try a 62 yarder knowing if you miss you basically hand kc a win. Gambling while trying to hedge your bets at the same time doesn't work. You go on 4th, or you punt. Period.

[Joel]

Actually, if you plan to try the FG if you can't convert, this is the best strategy:

If we were ok with a long field goal, we should have just ran the ball, get the clock down to 5 seconds or so, and then kick it. We gave them an opportunity by not converting the passes.
Just run it straight up the gut three times; it won't LOSE any yardage, and every inch you gain:

1) Makes your eventual FG that much easier,
2) Makes theirs that much harder and
3) Reduces the 1:08 they have left to get into FG range even if you DO miss.

Remember, Santos not only doinked it in from short range at the last second, but needed a big pass over the middle on the previous play to get THAT close. Those two incompletes stopped the clock so KC had plenty of time to move into range, and KC only had one time out left: Even if we gain NOTHING we can run that 1:08 down to about 0:18 before the kick, basically leaving them only 3-4 plays to go through our D from our 48 to Santos' range.

Not to mention that if either of them had been PICKED people would be demanding Lynch starts next week, and demanding Siemians head on a platter.

All that's easy to say with plenty of time to mull it over in front of a computer rather than 40 seconds to send in a play, line up and snap it. But it's the right call.

[Northman]

I have no problem with the decision to kick the FG. If Denver was going to win that game they would of done it on the final drive of regulation where they not only gave up a TD but a 2 pt conversion. Defense was shit the second half.

[Joel]

I have no problem with the decision to kick the FG. If Denver was going to win that game they would of done it on the final drive of regulation where they not only gave up a TD but a 2 pt conversion. Defense was shit the second half.
Funny you should say that...: http://www.broncosforums.com/forums/showthread.php/605356-2-games-in-a-row-the-defense-failed-miserably-at-the-end-of-the-game?p=2560734#post2560734

[VonDoom]

The good - Siemian had his best game ever. He wasn't perfect (missed a wide open Sanders by a lot at one point, some other minor miscues) but he dropped dimes on that TD drive, made some great plays with his legs and made the play of his year on the pass to Sunshine.

Sanders - balled out, as always. Interesting though, that his two best games by receiving yards as a Bronco were losses (this game and the Steelers game last year).

Derby - may have found our third down safety blanket

Von - virtually unstoppable. Nearly got a strip sack that probably wins the game on the last drive.

The bad - special teams. Cost us the game, with no doubt. Norwood's muff leaves us inside the five and leads to a safety; the subsequent kick return failure; Norwood again screwing up and costing us field position and time on the clock; and the very underrated screw up, the illegal formation that gave the Chiefs a second chance for a TD. Before that last drive in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs had 16 points. Basically 13 of them were directly caused by our idiotic play on special teams. Inexcusable.

Crunch time defense - I don't want to knock our best unit, but once again, they failed to deliver when they could have shut the game down. Miller said it after the game, Harris said it too. This follows on the heels of allowing what should have been a game ending drive to the Saints, which followed on the heels of giving up 30 points and 40-something minutes of clock time to the Raiders. Our margin for error is so thin with our offense being lackluster, that defense and special teams need to be there and they just haven't been.

Sambrailo - the experiment with the two RT has failed. At least Stephenson offered something when he came in. Sambrailo was a turnstyle. It's no shock that our offense started doing things after he left.

[BroncoJoe]

The Good: I didn't fall asleep during a late Broncos game.

The Bad: I didn't fall asleep during a late Broncos game.

[Valar Morghulis]

The Good: I didn't fall asleep during a late Broncos game. The Bad: I didn't fall asleep during a late Broncos game.

Haha, you are such and old man!!!

[BroncoJoe]

Haha, you are such and old man!!!

Well, I'm not old, but I get up early. "Sleeping in" to me is getting up at 6:00 AM.

[BigDaddyBronco]

The Good: I thought Paradis and Schofield looked ok. Von was awesome, Derby was a big help. Very good game in the second half from Siemian. Sanders was great.

The Bad: Okung was average at best, he will not be worth the money next year. Stephenson was average when he came in which looked tons better than Sambrailo who should be cut. He was just awful, not an NFL quality player. Max Garcia got routinely blown up. Not strong enough.

The play calling was bad much of the time. A few bright spots in the second half, but they seem a little slow in making adjustments. Our secondary fell apart at the end of the game and into overtime. This has been going on for a few weeks and these were the same guys that were lights out last year, so what is the deal?


Overall, we look like a 10-6 or 9-7 team that looks just good enough to get into the playoffs, but not good enough to make much noise. We still have a punchers chance, but will need to beat Jacksonville, Tennessee, and either the Raiders, Chiefs, or Patriots to be 10-6.

The team we are fighting right now for the last spot are the Dolphins. They have Baltimore, the Cardinals, and then the 3 teams of the AFC East. The Bills have the Raiders, Steelers, Browns, Dolphins, Jets. So they could be 9-7.

[Buff]

I'm just going to focus on the bad:

I don't like the decision to kick the 62 yarder and I didn't like it at the time. Sure, we will all rationalize it by saying it was our only opportunity to win at that stage - but you've gotta play the probabilities there. It's a low percentage kick - and while there aren't many stats readily available on % 62 yarders - I've gotta think it's a less than 25% chance of making it on a cold night with winds swirling. Nobody likes a tie - but it sure beats a loss.

With the field position it's virtually the only scenario that gives KC a real shot at driving down to kick the game winner - it was a reckless decision and Kubiak let adrenaline get the best of him IMO. If it's more of a 50/50 thing then maybe I can get on board - but I just think that was a suboptimal play that results in a suboptimal outcome more often than not.

The o-line is a travesty. My word. How can they be this bad? I was equally frustrated with the gameplan coming out of a bye - we appeared to want to "out-conservative" the Chiefs. I'd be interested in seeing a probability chart - it felt like we ran the ball between the tackles on 90% of 1st down plays. It's hard to know how much to blame the coaches when the execution is so poor.

At the end of the day we just don't have enough talent on offense to get it done IMO - between our piece meal o-line, average TEs, backup RB and replacement level QB, there is only so much compensating you can do to overcome all of that.

[HORSEPOWER 56]

I agree with most people's evaluations so I won't repeat them. I'll just say the one other "bad" that I saw falls on Wade Phillips. The defensive play calling in the 4th quarter especially was poor. We kept lining up way off the receivers allowing them a free release in most cases. It allowed them to dink and dunk us (their specialty) and didn't give the pass rush enough time to be effective. There was too much time left to play prevent and that's what we did. We pretty much did the same thing in overtime after we kicked our FG. The defense played "safe" instead of being aggressive like they had the first 3 quarters. I blame Wade for that. It was the same thing that almost lost us the game vs NO. The difference is with NO, you have to fear the big play. That's definitely not the case with KC.

[Mike]

The o-line is a travesty. My word. How can they be this bad? I was equally frustrated with the gameplan coming out of a bye - we appeared to want to "out-conservative" the Chiefs. I'd be interested in seeing a probability chart - it felt like we ran the ball between the tackles on 90% of 1st down plays. It's hard to know how much to blame the coaches when the execution is so poor.

At the end of the day we just don't have enough talent on offense to get it done IMO - between our piece meal o-line, average TEs, backup RB and replacement level QB, there is only so much compensating you can do to overcome all of that.

Coaching is a complete letdown. Kubiak's offense is a mess. It is completely predictable and has no flow to it at all. Blame the players and execution (also a part of the problem), but the coaches should bear the brunt of the blame. When Collingsworth can tell you what your RT is doing wrong and you can't see it, there is a problem. When you continue to isolate your biggest weakness and give him no help, there is a problem.

Kubiak is stubborn to the detriment of the team. He makes poor game decisions. Fortunately for him, we had a talented defense and a very good defensive coordinator last year. The house is about to collapse around him though, because the defense isn't there to bail him out this year.

[CoachChaz]

As I have been for a few years now, I'm still waiting for the team to employ a safety that can actually cover a good TE.

[Hawgdriver]

If we finish with the same record as Miami, which looks like a distinct possibility, a tie tonight would have put us in the playoffs

I'm on board with abe's inner-Herm, but the reality is that you play to win the Superbowl, and that's the problem with Kube's call.

[Nomad]

Losing to the Chiefs sucks.

[Freyaka]

I loved the call to go for FG, was the only chance to win.

Only? I mean there was also the option to try and throw for the first...

[Traveler]

Does anyone have an idea as to why Connor McGovern hasn't been given a chance to play? All draft reports listed him being as strong as he is versatile. He played every position on the line except LG in college.

[Tned]

Does anyone have an idea as to why Connor McGovern hasn't been given a chance to play? All draft reports listed him being as strong as he is versatile. He played every position on the line except LG in college.

Man, every time I see your avatar I start drooling. What I would do to get my hands on that. You have no idea what I could do with that fine, fine...



I would love to be able to fly in a private jet. It would make life so much nicer.

[Simple Jaded]

McGovern was supposedly given a legit chance to start in TC but that didn't last longer than one practice. Makes you wonder why the Broncos bother to carry 9 OL?

Okung LT
Sampro and/or Turner LG
Garcia C (until Paradis can get his ass on the practice field)
Schofield RG
Stephenson RT

Would be my starting OL, suit up 8 OL on gameday; Paradis and McGovern.

My ILove Boise Edit. This is not to say Paradis is to blame or Garcia is better. Garcia is the worst player on the field but there's no continuity, they're not getting any better when he only plays in games.

[aberdien]

Just to be clear, i'm not saying that I thought the FG was a wise decision necessarily. I would have preferred to throw the ball, I felt that was a better chance than kicking it. But either way, i'm not going to blame somebody for being aggressive when we spent the last 5 years playing with our tails between our legs.

P.S. I hacked Elway's twitter account

John Elway ‏@johnelway 6h6 hours ago
We're in this game to WIN. Although everyone's disappointed, we played hard & went down swinging!!!

[Simple Jaded]

#kickingandscreaming

They kicked.......I screamed.

:D

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

McGovern was supposedly given a legit chance to start in TC but that didn't last longer than one practice. Makes you wonder why the Broncos bother to carry 9 OL?

Okung LT
Sampro and/or Turner LG
Garcia C (until Paradis can get his ass on the practice field)
Schofield RG
Stephenson RT

Would be my starting OL, suit up 8 OL on gameday; Paradis and McGovern.

My ILove Boise Edit. This is not to say Paradis is to blame or Garcia is better. Garcia is the worst player on the field but there's no continuity, they're not getting any better when he only plays in games.

Considering all of the missed blocks I don't know if I want to tarry long at the place where I consider Garcia at Center. Things would get worst, not better.

[Simple Jaded]

Considering all of the missed blocks I don't know if I want to tarry long at the place where I consider Garcia at Center. Things would get worst, not better.

Paradis is missing blocks too.

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

Paradis is missing blocks too.

Maybe so, but he's good either way you slice it. Do you really want Garcia handling the protection calls, considering the way he handles stunts and blitzes?

I understand it hurts not having Paradise practice, but Garcia? I can't get on board with that without a night of heavy drinking.

[NightTerror218]

Paradis is considwred one of the best rated centers in the nfl. Just saying.

[NightTerror218]

Can always move paradis to safety.

[Simple Jaded]

In my defense, I didn't say Paradis wasn't good, I said his missing practice is hurting the team and that he's not so good that you can't sit his ass and get him to the point that he can practice. Dude absolutely shares part of the blame, not only for "being rusty" but also for his own limitations, he's not the Next Tom Nalen.

And I'm certainly not giving him so much credit as to think nobody else can make line calls for the single worst Broncos OL I can remember. He's their best center, I'm not saying otherwise.

[Simple Jaded]

Hell, I'm getting to the point that I think they should just flush the whole OL, scrub the F'n toilet and start from scratch in the offseason.

[Timmy!]

I'm ok keeping pff's #1 rated center....and the guy is playing hurt.

[Simple Jaded]

I'm ok keeping pff's #1 rated center....and the guy is playing hurt.

Which is fine, too, but at what cost? He's a FA, if he wants #1 PFF money I say let him walk.

[Timmy!]

Which is fine, too, but at what cost? He's a FA, if he wants #1 PFF money I say let him walk.

Well....we gotta pay somebody up front, and Okung will probably be gone.

[Timmy!]

He's also an exclusive rights FA, for what it's worth.

[Simple Jaded]

Welp, with all the great talent Denver has had to let walk away I would hope they don't see anyone on this OL as irreplaceable.

Btw, I'd much rather keep Okung.

[chazoe60]

The good
Siemian- best game yet
Miller- one of the best players in the world. Could you imagine how good he'd be if he got to play against our RTs?
Emmanuel- I freaking love this guy. He epitomises "kicking and screaming"

The bad
I eat staples and BroncoWave's analyses

Our OL

The Defense giving the game up three times.

[NightTerror218]

Was reqding some comments on IG. I have to agree with some people. Roby has taken a stwp vack since his pick 6. He has given up some big plays and key plays in last few games.

[Valar Morghulis]

Was reqding some comments on IG. I have to agree with some people. Roby has taken a stwp vack since his pick 6. He has given up some big plays and key plays in last few games.

Agreed, I don't know what happened, but he definately regressed

[NightTerror218]

Agreed, I don't know what happened, but he definately regressed

Glad you can read through my piss poor proof reading.

[I Eat Staples]

The good
Siemian- best game yet
Miller- one of the best players in the world. Could you imagine how good he'd be if he got to play against our RTs?
Emmanuel- I freaking love this guy. He epitomises "kicking and screaming"

The bad
I eat staples and BroncoWave's analyses

Our OL

The Defense giving the game up three times.

Yep, after further consideration, I don't think we should be trying to make the playoffs, but rather do whatever makes us feel like the biggest manliest men. Trying to make the playoffs is for little sissy girls, real men make decisions that lose games.

[Freyaka]

Glad you can read through my piss poor proof reading.

He probably ran it through google translate...That was so bad it was like a new language of its own :D

[Hiesam]

I could not believe the call for the Field Goal, Siemian was on fire the last half of the game and could have gotten that 4th down with ease.

[Lynch12]

Trevor getting first day downs with ease....

[VonDoom]

I could not believe the call for the Field Goal, Siemian was on fire the last half of the game and could have gotten that 4th down with ease.

They had gained zero yards on the previous three plays. "With ease" might be overstating it a bit.

[Buff]

I was looking for some statistics on 4th down conversions by yardage to try and make the case why I think going for it there would be the worst decision - worse than a FG or a punt. Came across this "4th down bot" article that's all based on data and thought it was pretty interesting (thought it didn't explicitly prove my point) - http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/05/upshot/4th-down-when-to-go-for-it-and-why.html


As a rule of thumb:
On fourth* and *1, go for it any place on the field where that is possible, starting at your 9*yard line.
On fourth *and *2, go for it everywhere beyond your 28*yard line.
On fourth* and *3, go for it almost everywhere beyond your 40.
As the down *to* go distance increases, your chances of successfully converting a
first down become smaller — and the decisions become more nuanced. On fourth and* medium, punting is a good idea close to your end zone, and kicking a field goal is wise closer to your opponent’s. But around midfield, depending on the distance you have to go, I still recommend that coaches go for it.

Again, those rules of thumb, which vary depending on the specific teams
involved:

On fourth *and *4, go for it between your 45 and your opponent’s 29.
On fourth *and *5, go for it between midfield and your opponent’s 33.
On fourth *and *6, go for it between your opponent’s 47 and your opponent’s
35.
As the yards *to *go increases, the low risk of succeeding on fourth down makes
punting or kicking a field goal a wiser option for most places on the field, except in
that nether region where you’re barely out of field* goal range but too close to punt.
There, the risk of missing a field goal is too high, and the field position advantage
you gain by punting is not as positive, especially if you punt in the end zone.
On fourth *and *7, go for it between your opponent’s 44 and your opponent’s
36.
On fourth *and* 8, go for it between your opponent’s 41 and your opponent’s
37.
On fourth *and *9, the only place I recommend going for it is around your
opponent’s 38.
On fourth *and *10 and worse, I don’t recommend rewarding your offense with
another down.

This is more along the lines of what I was getting at:

http://cdn2.content.compendiumblog.com/uploads/user/458939f4-fe08-4dbc-b271-efca0f5a2682/fe2c58f6-2410-4b6f-b687-d378929b1f9b/Image/b761aafdeed7031049e8a3b60aca2dfb/bar_chart_3rd_down_conversion_w640.jpeg (http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-statistics-game/going-for-it-on-4th-down-do-the-statistics-say-its-a-gamble)

The probability of converting a 4th and 10 is roughly 20-24% - I think McManus's expected make percentage is in that same range of outcomes there. Neither are very high percentage plays but I suppose you could make the argument that kicking the FG and going for the first down have roughly the same probability of success - except a FG would win the game there, so I think that is a slightly more optimal play than going for it. While I still prefer a punt to either of those choices.

[LawDog]

Glad you can read through my piss poor proof reading.

I was happier when I thought you just didn't do any proof reading. Now I'm kinda disappointed that you suck at it...

I mostly agree as well, although Roby has had a tendency to run a little hot and cold during the same game. It's just that he chose piss poor times to be cold against the chefs.

[chazoe60]

Yep, after further consideration, I don't think we should be trying to make the playoffs, but rather do whatever makes us feel like the biggest manliest men. Trying to make the playoffs is for little sissy girls, real men make decisions that lose games.

Yes because a tie for sure helps us get into the playoffs. :rolleyes:. If only we'd have punted the ball instead of kicking the FG on our first possession of OT, I've been told a punt is better than a FG. :laugh:

[BroncoWave]

Yes because a tie for sure helps us get into the playoffs. :rolleyes:. If only we'd have punted the ball instead of kicking the FG on our first possession of OT, I've been told a punt is better than a FG. :laugh:

I'm saving all these posts for when we miss the playoffs on a tiebreaker where tying this game instead of losing it would have gotten us in.

[NightTerror218]

I was happier when I thought you just didn't do any proof reading. Now I'm kinda disappointed that you suck at it...

I mostly agree as well, although Roby has had a tendency to run a little hot and cold during the same game. It's just that he chose piss poor times to be cold against the chefs.

By piss poor i mean no proof reading

[chazoe60]

I'm saving all these posts for when we miss the playoffs on a tiebreaker where tying this game instead of losing it would have gotten us in.

Go for it. Thanks for letting us in on your big asswhole plan of throwing things in people's faces if certain criteria are met at a later date, it doesn't make you look petty at all.

[NightTerror218]

The play siemian was hurt was play okung got pushed into him and siemian was tripped up by okungs feet in OT.

[Hawgdriver]

The play siemian was hurt was play okung got pushed into him and siemian was tripped up by okungs feet in OT.

Fainting goat.

F u MO.

[I Eat Staples]

Yes because a tie for sure helps us get into the playoffs. :rolleyes:. If only we'd have punted the ball instead of kicking the FG on our first possession of OT, I've been told a punt is better than a FG. :laugh:

You do realize that a tie is better than a loss, right? A tie does, in fact, help us get into the playoffs more than a loss does.

[Hawgdriver]

You do realize that a tie is better than a loss, right? A tie does, in fact, help us get into the playoffs more than a loss does.

You are so full of shit. Ties make us soft and lazy.

[BroncoWave]

Go for it. Thanks for letting us in on your big asswhole plan of throwing things in people's faces if certain criteria are met at a later date, it doesn't make you look petty at all.

No problem, any time! It never gets old being right then gloating about it. :D

[I Eat Staples]

You are so full of shit. Ties make us soft and lazy.

So we should hurt our playoff chances because ties are "soft." This is the kind of analysis I've come to expect from Skip Bayless.

[HORSEPOWER 56]

So we should hurt our playoff chances because ties are "soft." This is the kind of analysis I've come to expect from Skip Bayless.

Punting did not guarantee a tie, it only almost guaranteed we wouldn't win.

[Hawgdriver]

So we should hurt our playoff chances because ties are "soft." This is the kind of analysis I've come to expect from Skip Bayless.

And you are tuned in for more hot takes, amirite?

[Tned]

The play siemian was hurt was play okung got pushed into him and siemian was tripped up by okungs feet in OT.

That can't be, I clearly read on here that he wasn't even touched, he just tripped over his own feet, goat style.

[Tned]

You do realize that a tie is better than a loss, right? A tie does, in fact, help us get into the playoffs more than a loss does.

And, a win would have helped win the division, where a tie or loss wouldn't. This isn't the black and white concept that some of you guys are making it out to be.

[I Eat Staples]

And you are tuned in for more hot takes, amirite?

Yeah, I'M the one saying a loss is better than a tie. Do you even read your own posts?


Punting did not guarantee a tie, it only almost guaranteed we wouldn't win.

It didn't completely guarantee it, but pretty close to it. They wouldn't get a return with us punting from their 44, so the worst case scenario is a touchback. They'd have to go about 45 yards in 55 seconds with no timeouts. Not impossible, but highly unlikely, and it gives our defense a chance to cause a turnover.


And, a win would have helped win the division, where a tie or loss wouldn't. This isn't the black and white concept that some of you guys are making it out to be.

Fair enough, but a win was extremely unlikely anyway.

[Tned]

Fair enough, but a win was extremely unlikely anyway.

I don't think you can say it was "extremely" unlikely. The coaches know their players, if they thought it was "extremely" unlikely, like say a hail mary, which is highly unlikely, they there is probably no chance they would have done it. If they didn't think there was a reasonably good chance that he could make it, they wouldn't have called the play.

McManus says he could make that kick 8 out of 10 times. Maybe he overestimates his abilities, but I bet his coaches sure believed the chances were over 50%.

[chazoe60]

You do realize that a tie is better than a loss, right? A tie does, in fact, help us get into the playoffs more than a loss does.
You do realize that at the time of the decision it was try to win or try to tie, right?

[spikerman]

That can't be, I clearly read on here that he wasn't even touched, he just tripped over his own feet, goat style.

You're treading dangerously close to JrWiz and Orton territory here. :D

[Hawgdriver]

Yeah, I'M the one saying a loss is better than a tie. Do you even read your own posts?

Have you read any (http://www.broncosforums.com/forums/showthread.php/605345-Broncos-Gameday-Thead-Broncos-vs-Chiefs-11-27-16?p=2561376#post2561376) of my takes (http://www.broncosforums.com/forums/showthread.php/605345-Broncos-Gameday-Thead-Broncos-vs-Chiefs-11-27-16?p=2561134#post2561134) on the FG attempt?

You're just ranting, oblivious to being trolled.

[Simple Jaded]

The Chefs went 40 yards on three plays in a little over 30 seconds after getting the ball at midfield, there was no evidence to suggest punting would result in a tie.

[Joel]

The Chefs went 40 yards on three plays in a little over 30 seconds after getting the ball at midfield, there was no evidence to suggest punting would result in a tie.
When'd they do that? They went THIRTY yards in a little over a MINUTE (i.e. more than TWICE thirty seconds.) Do that from their 20 and they'd be AT midfield.

Take the tie.

[Simple Jaded]

When'd they do that? They went THIRTY yards in a little over a MINUTE (i.e. more than TWICE thirty seconds.) Do that from their 20 and they'd be AT midfield.

Take the tie.

Watch it again, or for the first time, whatever.

[Simple Jaded]

Here's how I remember it, feel free to go back, watch it and correct me if I'm wrong.

KC gets ball at midfield with 1:03 on game clock.
Penalty on defense.
Smith pass for a first down.
Smith spikes ball.
Smith pass to inside the Broncos 15 with 30 seconds left for yet another first down.
KC lets clock run down to one second left and take a TO or kick FG. One of the two. Can't remember.

40 yards, 3 plays = 33 seconds off the clock. Chefs let the other 29 seconds run off before TO/kick FG.

[Lynch12]

The Chefs went 40 yards on three plays in a little over 30 seconds after getting the ball at midfield, there was no evidence to suggest punting would result in a tie.

Dude you cannot let joel defeat you like this, but he's right and you've been defeated. Punting the ball could have resorted in a tie or maybe we even get a muffed return for a turnover. Giving them the ball at mid field was simply not the best way to handle that moment. Ive seen the tie come back and save team's in the end.

[Joel]

Here's how I remember it, feel free to go back, watch it and correct me if I'm wrong.

KC gets ball at midfield with 1:03 on game clock.
Penalty on defense.
Smith pass for a first down.
Smith spikes ball.
Smith pass to inside the Broncos 15 with 30 seconds left for yet another first down.
KC lets clock run down to one second left and take a TO or kick FG. One of the two. Can't remember.

40 yards, 3 plays = 33 seconds off the clock. Chefs let the other 29 seconds run off before TO/kick FG.
You're right they let the clock run, but from our 48 to our 16 is barely 30 yds in half a minute, not 40. Do that after a TB and they barely REACH midfield; do it again from there and they've given us the tie. That's presuming our new punter can't manage to send one out of bounds well inside their 20.

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

You're right they let the clock run, but from our 48 to our 16 is barely 30 yds in half a minute, not 40. Do that after a TB and they barely REACH midfield; do it again from there and they've given us the tie. That's presuming our new punter can't manage to send one out of bounds well inside their 20.

KC could have gone 50 yards I'm fairly confident.

[Joel]

KC could have gone 50 yards I'm fairly confident.
Not in 1:03, IMHO. And a 47 yarder is no gimme; remember, Santos had to bank in what was essentially a PAT. Again, presuming a TB rather than a coffin corner punt well inside their 20; if we do that, even 50 yds of offense in 1:03 would still leave KC kicking from >50.

All that said, after a night to sleep on it I still think the right call was to run on 2nd and 3rd down, burn 45 seconds and KCs final time out, then try the 62 yd (or less) FG with maybe 20 seconds left. In which case KC going 32 yds in 27 seconds would've taken about 7 seconds too long.

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

Not in 1:03, IMHO. And a 47 yarder is no gimme; remember, Santos had to bank in what was essentially a PAT. Again, presuming a TB rather than a coffin corner punt well inside their 20; if we do that, even 50 yds of offense in 1:03 would still leave KC kicking from >50.

All that said, after a night to sleep on it I still think the right call was to run on 2nd and 3rd down, burn 45 seconds and KCs final time out, then try the 62 yd (or less) FG with maybe 20 seconds left. In which case KC going 32 yds in 27 seconds would've taken about 7 seconds too long.

Joel, they would have probably scored a TD if they decided to run two more plays

[chazoe60]

The Chefs went 40 yards on three plays in a little over 30 seconds after getting the ball at midfield, there was no evidence to suggest punting would result in a tie.

Not to mention they had already returned a punt (free kick after a safety) for a TD.

[Tned]

All that said, after a night to sleep on it I still think the right call was to run on 2nd and 3rd down, burn 45 seconds and KCs final time out, then try the 62 yd (or less) FG with maybe 20 seconds left. In which case KC going 32 yds in 27 seconds would've taken about 7 seconds too long.

A couple have stated variations of this, but I think the fact you guys don't grasp is that Kubiak wasn't sitting there saying, "hey guys, let's see if we can run the clock down and then kick a near NFL record to win the game." They were clearly trying to get first downs to either win with a TD or a shorter FG, and when it didn't work, THEN he decided to go for the win vs. playing for the tie/loss.

[Joel]

A couple have stated variations of this, but I think the fact you guys don't grasp is that Kubiak wasn't sitting there saying, "hey guys, let's see if we can run the clock down and then kick a near NFL record to win the game." They were clearly trying to get first downs to either win with a TD or a shorter FG, and when it didn't work, THEN he decided to go for the win vs. playing for the tie/loss.
Right, but running down the clock forecloses KCs options, virtually guaranteeing no outcome worse than a tie since we had the ball. I just don't think KC could go from midfield to makeable FG range in <20 seconds with no time outs; again, it took them 27 seconds even WITH a time out.

[NightTerror218]

You're right they let the clock run, but from our 48 to our 16 is barely 30 yds in half a minute, not 40. Do that after a TB and they barely REACH midfield; do it again from there and they've given us the tie. That's presuming our new punter can't manage to send one out of bounds well inside their 20.

My best joel impression.....

so from our 48 yard line to our 16 yard line is 32 yards. They did that is what 33s. So almost gaining a yard per second. With 30 seconds left they could have gained potentially 30 more yards. Which would put the going for a total of 62 yards. 62 yards plus 20 yard line start would end up at our 18 yard line.

But the big thing is it could have been worse if he kept targeting roby. Who gave up the 4th and 20 at end of regulation. Dont remember who had coverage on kelce on last big play.

[Tned]

Right, but running down the clock forecloses KCs options, virtually guaranteeing no outcome worse than a tie since we had the ball. I just don't think KC could go from midfield to makeable FG range in <20 seconds with no time outs; again, it took them 27 seconds even WITH a time out.

If Kubiak was playing for a tie, he would have punted. He has made very clear that he had no desire to limit his options to tie or loss. What you are proposing is ridiculous.

[Simple Jaded]

Dude you cannot let joel defeat you like this, but he's right and you've been defeated. Punting the ball could have resorted in a tie or maybe we even get a muffed return for a turnover. Giving them the ball at mid field was simply not the best way to handle that moment. Ive seen the tie come back and save team's in the end.

Dude...I don't like you anymore.

[I Eat Staples]

Dude...I don't like you anymore.

The words of the defeated mean nothing to him.

[Simple Jaded]

The words of the defeated mean nothing to him.

He hasn't heard me sing.

[Simple Jaded]

.......but they keep sayin' we...
Laugh just a little too loud,
Stand just a little too close,
We stare just a little too long

[Joel]

If Kubiak was playing for a tie, he would have punted. He has made very clear that he had no desire to limit his options to tie or loss. What you are proposing is ridiculous.
For no WORSE than a tie; he'd still have a shot at long FG to win, and maybe even a short one if we could bust even one of three runs for a big gainer (again, bearing in mind that we'd probably face a dime package on 2nd and/or 3rd and 10.) The difference is there'd be almost no chance of KC having time to reach FG range if we failed on four straight downs.