Barnwell: How Denver is cruising

[VonDoom]

Nice article up today on ESPN about the different paths the Broncos and Panthers have been on since the Super Bowl:


1. Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch are an upgrade over Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler. It would be wrong to pretend that Siemian has looked like a superstar in the way that Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott have performed during their stunning debuts, but Siemian has been perfectly acceptable, which is a step up from what the Broncos got from their quarterbacks last year. Last year, Manning and Osweiler produced a combined QBR of 52.1, which was 25th in the league. Their 76.3 passer rating was 31st in the NFL. In the first quarter of 2016, Siemian and Lynch, who replaced an injured Siemian on Sunday, have combined for a QBR of 67.8 and a passer rating of 98.6. Those figures are 12th and 10th in the league this season, respectively.


3. The pass defense has somehow gotten scarier. Denver posted the league's best pass defense last year, hitting a staggering minus-28 percent in DVOA when the Panthers were the only other team in football below minus-10 percent. They were at minus-22.0 percent before the Bucs game and should improve, given that Jameis Winston was the worst quarterback in the league this week per adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), calculated by Chase Stuart of Football Perspective and FiveThirtyEight.

The Denver pass rush was also atop the leaderboard a year ago and has still managed to improve. The Broncos led the NFL in sack rate (8.1 percent) and pressure rate (34.7 percent) last season. Despite getting just 45 snaps from DeMarcus Ware so far this season, they haven't missed a beat, and Von Miller is the current NFL leader in sacks. While the Vikings have the league's highest sack rate, Denver has taken down opposing passers on 10.4 percent of their dropbacks, nearly a 29 percent improvement on its sack rate from a year ago. The Broncos are pressuring opposing passers 38.4 percent of the time when nobody else is above 32.3 percent. Even the Vikings can't top that.

To put it in context, the Broncos were seventh in the league last season in terms of contacting the quarterback, which they did on 13.9 percent of dropbacks. This year, the Broncos are making contact on 25 percent of pass plays. Nobody else is above 17.5 percent. They're lapping the field there. Denver has the best pass rush in football right now, and when teams get passes off, Aqib Talib & Co. are lying in wait in trap coverage, waiting to snatch throws out of the air. They're picking off 3.3 percent of opposing passes, the fifth-best rate in the league.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/barnwellx161003/the-denver-broncos-cruising-carolina-panthers-struggling-long-super-bowl-50-nfl

[NightTrainLayne]

I remember hearing that Ron Rivera spent some time in the offense studying, and speaking with teams/coaches who lost the Super Bowl in order to figure out what the pitfalls were, and how to avoid having a post-SB slump.

I'm wondering now if he mistakenly took those visits as a "how to" roadmap. Carolina looks terrible in some key spots.

[TXBRONC]

I remember hearing that Ron Rivera spent some time in the offense studying, and speaking with teams/coaches who lost the Super Bowl in order to figure out what the pitfalls were, and how to avoid having a post-SB slump.

I'm wondering now if he mistakenly took those visits as a "how to" roadmap. Carolina looks terrible in some key spots.

I don't about the team's psyche but it sure looks like cutting Norman loose is kicking the daylight out of them.

[NightTrainLayne]

I remember hearing that Ron Rivera spent some time in the offense studying, and speaking with teams/coaches who lost the Super Bowl in order to figure out what the pitfalls were, and how to avoid having a post-SB slump.

I'm wondering now if he mistakenly took those visits as a "how to" roadmap. Carolina looks terrible in some key spots.


Maybe. . . just maybe, don't go pick the brains of folks who lost if you want to figure out how to win. #badadvice

[Davii]

Maybe. . . just maybe, don't go pick the brains of folks who lost if you want to figure out how to win. #badadvice

I doubt he would pick John's brain, but he's the only one I can think of that might have sound advice for what to do after you lose a Super Bowl and how you can go win one in short order. Maybe Bellicheat as well.

[NightTrainLayne]

I doubt he would pick John's brain, but he's the only one I can think of that might have sound advice for what to do after you lose a Super Bowl and how you can go win one in short order. Maybe Bellicheat as well.

Well, Elway changed coaches! I doubt that's on Rivera's list!

[WARHORSE]

I don't about the team's psyche but it sure looks like cutting Norman loose is kicking the daylight out of them.


Exactly what I was thinking. How dumb to let go of a corner that allowed you to play killer D.


Guess they wanted to learn the hard way.

[BroncoWave]

Maybe. . . just maybe, don't go pick the brains of folks who lost if you want to figure out how to win. #badadvice

You don't think it would be beneficial to speak to other coaches who have been through the same thing and learn from what they did wrong?

[BroncoJoe]

You don't think it would be beneficial to speak to other coaches who have been through the same thing and learn from what they did wrong?

Not unless they ended up winning the next year. Or at least being in contention.

[BroncoWave]

Not unless they ended up winning the next year. Or at least being in contention.

And how do you know he didn't speak to such coaches?

[BroncoJoe]

And how do you know he didn't speak to such coaches?

How do you know he did?

[BroncoWave]

How do you know he did?

I don't claim to know, but it would seem to be the obvious place to start unless he's a dummy.

[BroncoJoe]

I don't claim to know, but it would seem to be the obvious place to start unless he's a dummy.

Well, that's the basis of my argument!

Example 1: Record so far this year

[BroncoWave]

Well, that's the basis of my argument!

Example 1: Record so far this year

Correlation doesn't equal causation.

[Davii]

And how do you know he didn't speak to such coaches?

Please name said coaches. Which coaches lost a SB and then turned around and won one in quick order?

[TXBRONC]

Please name said coaches. Which coaches lost a SB and then turned around and won one in quick order?

I can't think of any. The closest I can come to that is Dan Reeves and Marv Levy who both lost back to back Super Bowls.

[BroncoWave]

Please name said coaches. Which coaches lost a SB and then turned around and won one in quick order?

Winning a Super Bowl is freaking hard. Just getting to one is freaking hard. So I don't think you necessarily have to get back to and win the Super Bowl to be considered to have a good season after winning it all. As TX said, Levy and Reeves would be great examples of coaches to talk to. Getting a team to back to back Super Bowls, even if they are both losses, is a huge accomplishment. Belichick is another example of a coach who has kept his team successful after losing in a Super Bowl, although he probably wouldn't be as forthcoming with info to a competitor.

Also, I think it would be a fallacy to suggest that just because a team that lost the Super Bowl wasn't as good next year means the coach did something wrong. Teams in the Super Bowl typically lose a lot of good players to free agency the year after. And they are also picking at the end of each round of the draft which makes it more difficult to replace those losses with blue chip players. Even Super Bowl winning teams rarely make it back the next year. The league is just set up to make it a difficult thing to do, no matter how good your coach is.

I just find it odd that talking to coaches for advice on what they did after losing the Super Bowl, even if their teams struggled the year after, is something that would be criticized. There is always value in seeking out the experience of people who have been in your shoes before, even if it's simply learning what not to do.

[Tangerine]

Please name said coaches. Which coaches lost a SB and then turned around and won one in quick order?

Bill Belichick lost the Super Bowl in 2011 then won it in 2014.

His advice to Rivera "don't play the Broncos in the playoffs"
Rivera's answer "I knew that already...."

[Buff]

Please name said coaches. Which coaches lost a SB and then turned around and won one in quick order?

Don Shula lost Super Bowl VI and then won Super Bowl VII. :elefant:

[CoachChaz]

Were his questions limited to head coaches? Because the NFL is probably littered with coordinators and position coaches that have lost the SB before winning. Just as an example...John Harbaugh lost a SB as the ST coordinator in Philly in 05 before winning the SB as the Ravens HC in 2013.

[Davii]

Winning a Super Bowl is freaking hard. Just getting to one is freaking hard. So I don't think you necessarily have to get back to and win the Super Bowl to be considered to have a good season after winning it all. As TX said, Levy and Reeves would be great examples of coaches to talk to. Getting a team to back to back Super Bowls, even if they are both losses, is a huge accomplishment. Belichick is another example of a coach who has kept his team successful after losing in a Super Bowl, although he probably wouldn't be as forthcoming with info to a competitor.

Also, I think it would be a fallacy to suggest that just because a team that lost the Super Bowl wasn't as good next year means the coach did something wrong. Teams in the Super Bowl typically lose a lot of good players to free agency the year after. And they are also picking at the end of each round of the draft which makes it more difficult to replace those losses with blue chip players. Even Super Bowl winning teams rarely make it back the next year. The league is just set up to make it a difficult thing to do, no matter how good your coach is.

I just find it odd that talking to coaches for advice on what they did after losing the Super Bowl, even if their teams struggled the year after, is something that would be criticized. There is always value in seeking out the experience of people who have been in your shoes before, even if it's simply learning what not to do.

I agree whole heartedly which is why I am not a proponent of the "anything but a SB win is failure" line of thinking.

I certainly didn't criticize him for seeking advice, I think what is being criticized is he apparently sought the wrong advice.

Also, yes, having a bad year after a good year means you did something wrong in between. Personnel choices, poor coaching, something. Had you made the proper choices your team would have at least held their ground rather than regressing.

Either Rivera is not following the advice he was given or he got some bad advice. That is not criticizing the man for getting advice in the first place, and I didn't see anyone do that so I think your comment is wrong. Maybe someone did, but if they did I missed it.

[NightTrainLayne]

My comment drew enough debate I had to go searching.

What I originally heard was Pat Kirwin who interviews Ron Rivera every week (also interviews Kubiak on Monday afternoons @3:00 MTN) on Sirius/XM NFL network. He was asking Rivera about how he dealt with the loss to get his team ready to start the season, and that Kirwin had read something about him interviewing SB losing coaches to see how they dealt with it, and how teams that lose the SB historically under-perform the next year, and he wanted to avoid that etc.

In searching I found a MMQB article from July referencing the same thing. In that article Rivera mentions specifically John Fox and Pete Carroll who had lost the previous 2 SB's.
http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/05/29/carolina-panthers-ron-rivera-nfl-super-bowl-return

The Pat Kirwin conversation that I remembered was framed more as, "these teams lost the SB, and then didn't perform as well the next season, what did they do wrong, and how can we avoid it?" The MMQB article isn't couched in exactly the same way, but I think that's what prompted the conversation I heard on Sirius/XM.

[BroncoWave]

I agree whole heartedly which is why I am not a proponent of the "anything but a SB win is failure" line of thinking.

I certainly didn't criticize him for seeking advice, I think what is being criticized is he apparently sought the wrong advice.

Also, yes, having a bad year after a good year means you did something wrong in between. Personnel choices, poor coaching, something. Had you made the proper choices your team would have at least held their ground rather than regressing.

Either Rivera is not following the advice he was given or he got some bad advice. That is not criticizing the man for getting advice in the first place, and I didn't see anyone do that so I think your comment is wrong. Maybe someone did, but if they did I missed it.

As far as the Panthers are concerned, it's pretty clear that losing Norman had a huge impact on their defense. I don't know if who controls the personnel in Carolina, but that could very well be something Rivera had no control over. Also, they did come a field goal away from being 2-2 with a wine over the defending champs on the road, so I don't know that I'm quite ready to bury them for this season yet. They definitely need to fix some stuff though.

[Canmore]

As far as the Panthers are concerned, it's pretty clear that losing Norman had a huge impact on their defense. I don't know if who controls the personnel in Carolina, but that could very well be something Rivera had no control over. Also, they did come a field goal away from being 2-2 with a wine over the defending champs on the road, so I don't know that I'm quite ready to bury them for this season yet. They definitely need to fix some stuff though.

I hope the sink straight to the bottom.

[atwater27]

Where the hell did the Vikings defense come from?! They are looking as good as Denver's D.

[BroncoWave]

Where the hell did the Vikings defense come from?! They are looking as good as Denver's D.

They were 5th in the NFL in points allowed last year so they didn't come completely out of nowhere.

[I Eat Staples]

I agree whole heartedly which is why I am not a proponent of the "anything but a SB win is failure" line of thinking.

I certainly didn't criticize him for seeking advice, I think what is being criticized is he apparently sought the wrong advice.

Also, yes, having a bad year after a good year means you did something wrong in between. Personnel choices, poor coaching, something. Had you made the proper choices your team would have at least held their ground rather than regressing.

Either Rivera is not following the advice he was given or he got some bad advice. That is not criticizing the man for getting advice in the first place, and I didn't see anyone do that so I think your comment is wrong. Maybe someone did, but if they did I missed it.

Carolina overachieved last year at 15-1, they were bound to come back to earth. They're a good team, but not that good.

Luck plays such a huge role in football anyway with the short season and one and done playoff structure.

[Simple Jaded]

I wish I could get Kirwin, he's great.

[BroncoWave]

Carolina overachieved last year at 15-1, they were bound to come back to earth. They're a good team, but not that good.

Luck plays such a huge role in football anyway with the short season and one and done playoff structure.

Agreed. If people are holding them to last season's standard and considering anything less a failure, then there was pretty much a 100% chance they would fail. If they wind up going like 10-6 this year and still win the division, that's still a pretty successful. Obviously they are a long ways from that yet, but I would certainly not count them out yet.

[VonDoom]

Where the hell did the Vikings defense come from?! They are looking as good as Denver's D.

They've drafted really well on defense in recent years. They've been on the rise, and this looks like the year it's coming together for them.

[NightTrainLayne]

They were 5th in the NFL in points allowed last year so they didn't come completely out of nowhere.

Mike Zimmer is a hell of a coach. I thought for a long time he was getting short-changed as a potential Head Coach. He finally got his shot, and he is doing a great job.

[Slick]

I <3 Mike Zimmer.