PDA

View Full Version : Barnwell: Offseason Grades - AFC West



VonDoom
05-13-2016, 11:34 AM
Bill Barnwell has been doing offseason grades, division by division. Today was the AFC West. Here's some of our section:


What went right

They quietly might have upgraded at quarterback. It's weird to say about a team that won a Super Bowl and subsequently lost its Hall of Fame starter and its promising backup during the same offseason, but it's entirely possible that the Broncos will get better quarterback play out of Mark Sanchez in 2016 than they did out of Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler last season. That duo combined to post a Total QBR of 46.7, which was 25th in the league.

During his two seasons under Chip Kelly in Philadelphia, Sanchez posted a QBR of 55.0. I'm not so confident in QBR's ability to account for scheme changes to say that Sanchez definitively outplayed Manning and Osweiler, but it's at least in the realm of discussion to suggest that he could play at a similar level in 2016 as those guys did in 2015. Given that Sanchez will have a cap hit of just $4.5 million and cost just a seventh-round pick while Manning (in 2015) and Osweiler (over 2016-17) were each going to cost in excess of $17 million per year, the Broncos may be better off with Sanchez.


They found a left tackle on the cheap. Left tackle was a mess last year for the Broncos, who lost Ryan Clady and then rookie Ty Sambrailo to season-ending injuries by the end of September. Ryan Harris eventually filled in before leaving for Pittsburgh. Enter Russell Okung, who critically misjudged the importance of agents by trying to represent himself in free agency.

It's about as unfavorable a deal as a player can sign entering free agency. You have to feel bad for Okung, given that this might be his only shot at securing a big-money second contract, but it's a great deal for Denver. And by signing Okung, they were able to deal Clady and a seventh-round pick to the New York Jets for a fifth-rounder.



What went wrong

A lot of useful players walked out the door. You know the names. Manning. Osweiler. Malik Jackson. Danny Trevathan. Evan Mathis. Louis Vasquez. Owen Daniels. Some of the names were bigger than their actual on-field impact, but that's a lot of talent leaving, either via free agency, release or retirement. You can understand why the Broncos didn't want to pay Jackson and Osweiler what the AFC South thought they were worth, but it's still frustrating to see huge chunks of a Super Bowl-winning team leave town.


They bungled the C.J. Anderson situation The Broncos were naive about the Anderson market, but even treating the tender decision as a sunk cost, it doesn't feel like the right move to guarantee a running back this much money, either. Undrafted or otherwise, anonymous running backs like Anderson have a nearly 20-year history of succeeding in Gary Kubiak's offense, a list that includes everyone from Terrell Davis to Arian Foster and Justin Forsett. If there's any place the Broncos can and should be saving money, it's at running back. Anderson has looked good when given playing time, and he should be effective as the starter in 2016, but there's a good chance the Broncos could have just turned the job over to a street free agent or fourth-round pick Devontae Booker and gotten similar production at a fraction of what they'll pay Anderson.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/15522034/bill-barnwell-2016-offseason-report-cards-denver-broncos-kansas-city-chiefs-oakland-raiders-san-diego-chargers

Also of note, from the AFC South article posted yesterday:


If you're a Texans fan, you have to be worried that the Broncos saw what Osweiler could do and twice passed on him. They went back to Manning, who had been both injured and ineffective, after Osweiler had a hiccup in Week 17. And then, when the bidding for Osweiler increased to the $18 million-per-year range, the Broncos chose the unknown quarterback void over re-upping a player they had been around for four years. They were right the first time. It's hard to argue they'll be wrong this time

Simple Jaded
05-14-2016, 12:28 AM
I agree with the RB assessment, that's the one offseason move I didn't understand.

TXBRONC
05-14-2016, 08:14 AM
I agree with the RB assessment, that's the one offseason move I didn't understand.

Elway said he underestimated the market for Anderson.

I don't see how Manning retiring is something that went wrong. It wasn't unexpected. The only unexpected thing that happened was Osweiler signing with the Texans.

NightTerror218
05-15-2016, 09:14 AM
Elway prob knew he was going to draft a RB. Botched andersons market value, however it is very front loaded for this year. But hillman knows the system and is coming in cheap. They obviously like him better then PS guys.

Poet
05-15-2016, 12:42 PM
RB's got paid this offseason. I'm not sure why, but Anderson is comparable to any of the guys who got big deals...sometimes the market is wrong but the logistics require you to overpay. It happens.

underrated29
05-15-2016, 01:30 PM
They said that had they put a 2nd rd tender on CJ that he'd be a FA next year and likely cost more over that year and life of the contract based upon what they project him to do..... So it actually may not have been the wrong move if CJ does as well as they anticipate him doing

TXBRONC
05-15-2016, 05:47 PM
They said that had they put a 2nd rd tender on CJ that he'd be a FA next year and likely cost more over that year and life of the contract based upon what they project him to do..... So it actually may not have been the wrong move if CJ does as well as they anticipate him doing

You're not going to fall apart when they let Bibbs go are you? :heh:

underrated29
05-15-2016, 08:11 PM
You're not going to fall apart when they let Bibbs go are you? :heh:



Nah, cuz the tackle breaker will be let go first. It's not so much that I love bibbs, just that i think he's a much better player than old road grader Ron

Simple Jaded
05-15-2016, 08:42 PM
They said that had they put a 2nd rd tender on CJ that he'd be a FA next year and likely cost more over that year and life of the contract based upon what they project him to do..... So it actually may not have been the wrong move if CJ does as well as they anticipate him doing

Actually I don't disagree with the tender, I disagree with matching the offer. Shoulda let him go imo.

Joel
05-15-2016, 10:40 PM
They said that had they put a 2nd rd tender on CJ that he'd be a FA next year and likely cost more over that year and life of the contract based upon what they project him to do..... So it actually may not have been the wrong move if CJ does as well as they anticipate him doing
This is what I keep coming back to with tenders. People act like, "we'll just stick a tender on him; problem solved," but that only buys a SINGLE YEAR, during which inflation pushes the market value that much higher. If you plan to keep a guy around a while, it's better to sign him to the long contract sooner than later: It costs less, secures the teams position and the players career and finances and reduces the risk of having to cut or pay $10M to a 33-year-old FORMERLY great player.

In fact, that was my argument for a long term deal with CJ after the terms of Miamis offer went public. Always gratifying when Elway listens to me; look how well that Kubiak/Dennison/Phillips thing worked out for us. :tongue:

TXBRONC
05-15-2016, 11:17 PM
Nah, cuz the tackle breaker will be let go first. It's not so much that I love bibbs, just that i think he's a much better player than old road grader Ron

I'm not sure they have much use for baby bibbs.

underrated29
05-16-2016, 12:56 AM
I'm not sure they have much use for baby bibbs.



They will my friend they will.

I also love that Rav high fived you, hi ravage.

TXBRONC
05-16-2016, 07:14 AM
They will my friend they will.

I also love that Rav high fived you, hi ravage.

I'm just razzing you a little, bro.


Honestly, I don't see where Bibbs fits. He has to be just about out of practice squad eligibility.

underrated29
05-16-2016, 11:08 AM
I know you are.

I forsee CJ, Booker, Bibbs. Booker ending up starting over CJ mid way through the season because CJ gets dinged up again. Then CJ starting over booker again, because of fumbles. Bibbs, is the boss 3rd down back.

Al Wilson 4 Mayor
05-16-2016, 11:11 AM
I know you are.

I forsee CJ, Booker, Bibbs. Booker ending up starting over CJ mid way through the season because CJ gets dinged up again. Then CJ starting over booker again, because of fumbles. Bibbs, is the boss 3rd down back.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Bibbs win the 3rd down back job. Hillman hasn't proven to be good at picking up blitzes or catching the ball out of the backfield.

TXBRONC
05-16-2016, 11:19 AM
I wouldn't be surprised to see Bibbs win the 3rd down back job. Hillman hasn't proven to be good at picking up blitzes or catching the ball out of the backfield.

He had basically as many catches as Anderson did and if he couldn't pick up the blitz I doubt he would have gotten play. If Bibbs was better than Hillman then he would have stayed on the active roster.

Al Wilson 4 Mayor
05-16-2016, 11:43 AM
He had basically as many catches as Anderson did and if he couldn't pick up the blitz I doubt he would have gotten play. If Bibbs was better than Hillman then he would have stayed on the active roster.

I didn't say he couldn't pick up blitzes. I said he wasn't good at it.
He has the same # of catches as CJ, but with quite a few more snaps. So, they either didn't trust him as much in those situations, or he had a lot of drops.

TXBRONC
05-16-2016, 12:06 PM
I didn't say he couldn't pick up blitzes. I said he wasn't good at it.
He has the same # of catches as CJ, but with quite a few more snaps. So, they either didn't trust him as much in those situations, or he had a lot of drops.

He was targeted 35 time to CJ's 36 times. Yeah he had more snaps but also carried the ball 40 times more than CJ did.

Cugel
05-16-2016, 05:29 PM
Other than the year we brought in Ware and Ward I think the media has generally been critical. I put no stock in draft grades but for the most part Denver's drafts as average. The only twice has the media ever praised Denver's drafts i.e. when we drafted Miller and this current draft.

The "draft grade" is a particularly silly part of NFL punditry. How does anybody know right now what some draft pick is going to do?

They CAN grade Denver's drafts during the Elway era now:

2015:

1st - LB Shane Ray - Broncos are set for a replacement for when DeMarcus Ware retires. Huge pickup.

2nd - Ty Sambrailo- injured & missed 2015 season. Broncos like him, but future is unclear.

3rd - TE Jeff Heuerman - ditto.

4th - Max Garcia - was backup LG and now is promoted to a starting job. Solid pick for the 4th round.

5th - Lorenzo Doss - CB - ZZZZZzzzzzzzz.

6th - Darius Kilgo - NT - Will be in the rotation this year. Broncos like his work ethic. Useful pick.

7th -QB - Trevor Seimian - will be the #3 QB this year. Has a rocket arm, but not great precision or very good at reading defenses. Still, useful for a 7th round pick to even make a SB champion roster.

All in all, it's already clear without more that the 2015 draft class was at least a "B" and could be an "A" if Seimian and Heuerman develop as hoped.

2014:

1st - CB Bradly Roby. Broncos still can't believe he fell to them. True #1 CB who give the Broncos an edge in pass coverage.

2nd - Cody Latimer - Bust so far. Hasn't learned the playbook. Is pushed even further down the depth chart this year behind Bennie Fowler, but has developed into good special teams player. Will have to show more in training camp to make the team since they are going to more 2 TE and 2 WR or 1 FB, 1 TE and 2 WR formations this season which will cut down a lot on the #3 WRs chances.

3rd - G Michael Schofield - God help us, he's still on the team! Disaster as a starter last year, he's now on the bench. He might not make the team either if the Broncos pick up a FA G from some other team.

4th - LB Lamin Barrow - John Fox liked him, which is why he's now on the Bears after the Broncos released him.

6th - C Matt Paradis - One of the reasons John Fox was fired. He didn't like Paradis, but Elway did. Started entire season and is now the only returning starter on the OL from last year. Didn't play great, but expected to do better in his second full year as a starter, now they are running the Kubiak system entirely.

7th - LB Corey Nelson. Broncos really like Nelson. With the departure of Danny Trevathan he'll have a chance to compete for a starting job or at least backup behind Todd Davis. Solid player in the 7th round!

Overall Grade: "B" Missing on 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks is bad, but getting a useful LB in the 7th is great and Bradley Roby would make any draft good.

2013:

1st - NT Sylvester Williams - They just refused to pick up his 5th year option. Probably his last year as a Bronco. Not a great 1st round selection.

2nd - RB Montee Ball - Worst Broncos draft pick of the Elway era. Flat bust.

3rd - CB Kayvon Webster - Not a great CB but he's still on the team. So, meh.

4th - 7th rounds - NOTHING. Quanteris Smith, Tavaris King, Vincent Painter, Zak Dysert.

Draft Grade: "D-" Barely anything useful out of this entire draft. Webster and Williams hardly worth mentioning and the rest were pure garbage.

2012:

2nd - DT Derek Wolfe - Starter and now given a new big contract. He's a success story. Not a Pro Bowl player by any means but solid starter.

2nd QB - Brock Osweiler - Despite the fact he's gone, he saved their SB season winning 5 out of 7 games and by his performance against the Patriots and Bengals. That alone makes him worth the pick.

3rd - Ronnie Hillman - Not a great pick. There were other better players on the board. Not horrible either.

4th - S Omar Bolden. Another late round success. He just left to go to the Bears where he will have a chance to start.

4th - C Philip Blake - Bust-o-rama.

5th - DE Malik Jackson - Tremendous pick. Great value. They offered him $11M a year but he took $15/yr. to go to Jacksonville.

6th - LB Danny Trevathan. Same. Chicago is paying him $6M a year now.

Draft Grade "A+" Tremendous value with every pick but the 4th.

2012:

1st - LB Von Miller - Highest draft pick in Broncos history and now the SB MVP. Nuff' said.

2nd - Rahim Moore - He's a starter in Cleveland. Nobody will ever forget him falling down on the Raven's TD though.

2nd - Orlando Franklin - He flamed out in Denver after the 2013 SB but he's earning $7M this season from the Chargers. You can't say he's a total bust, just not a good fit.

3rd - LB Nate Irving - Waste of a pick.

4th - DB Quinton Carter - Can't win them all.

4th - TE Julius Thomas. Got the huge deal from the Jaguars so they couldn't keep him, but success for a 4th round pick. "Thomas’ $9.2 million-per-year average now catapults him past Seattle’s Jimmy Graham and New England’s Rob Gronkowski." No thanks.

6th - LB Mike Mohammed - Who?

7th - TE Virgil Green - Re-signed to a long term deal last year. Should be more involved in the passing game this season. Success story for a 7th round pick.


Draft Grade: "A". Best or 2nd best defensive player in the NFL and SB MVP? That gets you an "A" Most of the rest of that draft was totally forgettable except Julius Thomas and only other player still on the roster is Virgil Green. But, still. Home run with the first pick.

Simple Jaded
05-16-2016, 06:52 PM
What's more overstated at this point, NFL Draft grades or the "too early to grade the draft" cliche?

TXBRONC
05-17-2016, 07:49 AM
What's more overstated at this point, NFL Draft grades or the "too early to grade the draft" cliche?

There're equal.

Simple Jaded
05-17-2016, 01:19 PM
By the way, Wiiliams was a good, not great, 1st round pick, they didn't pick up his 5th year option because NT's rarely make what that 5th year option pays. And for that reason it's stupid to assume that Denver has no intention/interest of keeping him beyond 2016, as usual that depends on his market.

Also, you have no idea what Fox thought of Paradis, Fox was on the hot seat because he couldn't take team over the top, he got fired for a lot of reasons. I sincerely doubt a player like Paradis moved the needle as much as you think you know, Fox's C's were better.

TXBRONC
05-17-2016, 05:03 PM
By the way, Wiiliams was a good, not great, 1st round pick, they didn't pick up his 5th year option because NT's rarely make what that 5th year option pays. And for that reason it's stupid to assume that Denver has no intention/interest of keeping him beyond 2016, as usual that depends on his market.

Also, you have no idea what Fox thought of Paradis, Fox was on the hot seat because he couldn't take team over the top, he got fired for a lot of reasons. I sincerely doubt a player like Paradis moved the needle as much as you think you know, Fox's C's were better.

Hopefully, Elway will re-sign him. Paradis had nothing to do with Fox's demise. Kicking and screaming says it all.

Poet
05-17-2016, 07:26 PM
John Fox was a lackluster hack. I said it before he was hired, I said it when he was hired, I said it when he was coaching the Broncos, and I said it after he was fired. He will never win a Superbowl. He has no heart or gumption. His teams will always trail off in big moments, and he has a stupid face.

Al Wilson 4 Mayor
05-17-2016, 08:38 PM
John Fox was a lackluster hack. I said it before he was hired, I said it when he was hired, I said it when he was coaching the Broncos, and I said it after he was fired. He will never win a Superbowl. He has no heart or gumption. His teams will always trail off in big moments, and he has a stupid face.

This whole paragraph is sig worthy.
:laugh:

TXBRONC
05-17-2016, 09:13 PM
John Fox was a lackluster hack. I said it before he was hired, I said it when he was hired, I said it when he was coaching the Broncos, and I said it after he was fired. He will never win a Superbowl. He has no heart or gumption. His teams will always trail off in big moments, and he has a stupid face.

I take it you don't care for Fox.

Poet
05-17-2016, 09:15 PM
This whole paragraph is sig worthy.
:laugh:

All of my posts are sig worthy; I'm the greatest poster of all time!

Poet
05-17-2016, 09:16 PM
I take it you don't care for Fox.

I think I hate the man.

Simple Jaded
05-17-2016, 11:01 PM
After all Fox did for you? Smh.

TXBRONC
05-18-2016, 09:07 AM
All of my posts are sig worthy; I'm the greatest poster of all time!

Delusions of grandeur dude. :laugh:

Poet
05-18-2016, 06:26 PM
Delusions of grandeur dude. :laugh:

I start off hot and then I **** it all up...I'm John Fox. :shocked:

Joel
05-18-2016, 08:30 PM
How can you say THIS:

The "draft grade" is a particularly silly part of NFL punditry. How does anybody know right now what some draft pick is going to do?
yet immediately follow it with THIS:


They CAN grade Denver's drafts during the Elway era now:

2015:

1st - LB Shane Ray - Broncos are set for a replacement for when DeMarcus Ware retires. Huge pickup.

2nd - Ty Sambrailo- injured & missed 2015 season. Broncos like him, but future is unclear.

3rd - TE Jeff Heuerman - ditto.

4th - Max Garcia - was backup LG and now is promoted to a starting job. Solid pick for the 4th round.

5th - Lorenzo Doss - CB - ZZZZZzzzzzzzz.

6th - Darius Kilgo - NT - Will be in the rotation this year. Broncos like his work ethic. Useful pick.

7th -QB - Trevor Seimian - will be the #3 QB this year. Has a rocket arm, but not great precision or very good at reading defenses. Still, useful for a 7th round pick to even make a SB champion roster.

All in all, it's already clear without more that the 2015 draft class was at least a "B" and could be an "A" if Seimian and Heuerman develop as hoped.

Sly was a 1st round pick but didn't become a defensive lynchpin until his THIRD full season (and only after TWO excellent NTs ahead of him left, one due to injury and the other because he'd earned a big payday.) But Ray's a sure thing after just a SINGLE season, 80% of which he spent healthy but BENCHED? The "sophomore slump" is another time honored NFL cliche; a slump from his 2015 production could make last years 1st round pick a busted FORMER NFL player.

There's been way too many one-year wonders to grade anyone with <2 (preferably 3) full seasons with anything but an I.

For example: I think you're wrong that Webster's "not a great CB;" just because we already had TWO Pro Bowlers ahead of him, then spent a 1st round pick on a THIRD CB who "dropped" past #20 doesn't mean Webster sucks, any more than having to wait his turn behind Ware, Von and Barrett proves Ray sucks, or waiting HIS turn behind Vickerson and Potroast proved Sly sucks. But ask me again after his third full season (especially if we save $10M by cutting Talib next year.)

Al Wilson 4 Mayor
05-18-2016, 08:33 PM
Joel, Knighton and Potroast are the se dude. :)

Joel
05-18-2016, 08:46 PM
I start off hot and then I **** it all up...I'm John Fox. :shocked:
It's a correctable mistake. Just remember to keep up the ovations and idiotic grinning till the Texans dump the best fan they'll ever have: Then you're Chicagos problem, and they've already got so many they probably won't even notice one more. ;)

Joel
05-18-2016, 08:47 PM
Joel, Knighton and Potroast are the se dude. :)
Read what I think, not what I type! :tongue:

Al Wilson 4 Mayor
05-18-2016, 09:04 PM
Read what I think, not what I type! :tongue:

I have a wife who expects me to know what she's thinking. I refuse to do mental gymnastics for you too.