Why Drafting Paxton Lynch Is A Genius Move By Elway

[Cugel]

This is a little noted aspect of the Paxton Lynch drafting, but it's importance cannot be overstated, and you know Elway was thinking of this all along.

3 years ago when the Broncos were crushed in the SB by the Seattle Seahawks 43-8, John Elway privately made a decision that ultimately resulted in a SB Championship. He was going to abandon reliance upon Denver's record setting offense and build a Championship Defense to rival Seattle's.

We know the story. He went out in FA and signed Aquib Talib, DeMarcus Ware, TJ Ward, Brandon Marshall and Darien Stewart. He drafted guys like Bradley Roby and Shane Ray. He fired his coaching staff in 2015 and brought in Kubiak and Wade Phillips. He created one of the best defenses in NFL history and won a SB.

Two years later (the fastest turnaround time from SB loser to winner in 43 years), the Broncos are World Champions.

But, there's another aspect to the Seattle success that few have noted but that Elway has not missed. They have managed their salary cap brilliantly in order to keep their defense together.

Normally, great defenses win championships, but in the salary cap and FA era it's impossible to keep together a great defense for long. Players want to cash in and get paid. Veterans want contract extensions for a lot more money. Everybody in the NFL is trying to dismantle the SB winning and steal their players. We saw that this year with teams giving $15M a year to Malik Jackson, and the Bears $7M a year to Danny Trevathan.

Seahawks Success Story: The Seahawks however, have been remarkably successful in keeping every single key player on their entire defense. They haven't lost anybody significant.

They did this by re-signing players a year early: Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, Bobby Wagner, Kam Chancellor, KJ Wright - NONE of them was allowed to hit FA and get away. The core of their great defense is all under contract for years to come.

But how were they able to do this? The key was that they were paying Russell Wilson less than $1M a year on his rookie contract for 4 years. That allowed them to pay their defenders and keep them. Then after Wilson's SB win, they were able to give him a new contract for year 5 that pays him $22M a year. But, that was in year 5.

Elway meanwhile had a problem. He was paying Peyton Manning $19-20M a year. In 2015 he re-negotiated a reduced contract, but it was still $15M a year.

But, in drafting Paxton Lynch with the #26 pick of the draft, the Broncos are committed to paying somewhere between $9.5 and $10M total for 4 years, with a 5th year option. That's $2.5M a year.
(http://www.ibtimes.com/nfl-draft-2016-contracts-projected-salaries-all-first-round-picks-2361279)
Paying your starting QB $2.5 M a year instead of $16-$22M is a cap savings of at least $62M over 4 years! That means that Elway should be able to re-sign all his core veteran defenders over the next several years. It means they can afford to re-sign Von Miller (and I would expect that contract to get done fairly soon now that the draft is over and the Broncos are not going to be offering $7 or $8 M a year to Colin Kaepernick).

It means they can afford to re-do Brandon Marshall's contract next off-season as well as getting Darien Stewart re-signed. It means that if they need to go out in FA and get a DL and pay him $10 M for a season they could do it. They will have the same kind of flexibility to lock up their core players for years to come that have made Seattle such a successful franchise these last 5 years.

If the Broncos can coach up Paxton Lynch to be a good (not even great) starting QB over the next few years, that 5th year rookie contract will be paying dividends for years to come.

This is just brilliant cap management. Elway simply ran rings around teams like the Chiefs, the Cowboys and Browns who all wanted to get Paxton Lynch at the end of the first round. And he's secured the Broncos team future.

This is what he's talking about when he said "We don't want to win now. We want to win from now on." It's the kind of move that a superior franchise makes to make themselves a SB contender for years. :beer:

"John Elway is playing chess, while other GMs are playing checkers." -- Cecil Lammey.

[OrangeHoof]

It was well played but the amazing thing was that Lynch was still there to be taken that low in the first round for the Broncos to get him. When the season ended, I would not have given much chance Lynch would fall to #26. Certainly, by the mid-teens, he'd be off the board. Scouts tend to overplay the negative aspects of one's play and devalue guys more than they should.

The other amazing part is Carson Wentz. The draftniks suddenly dropped Lynch and started latching onto Wentz (who has the obvious disadvantage of stepping up from North Dakota St. to the NFL). If Wentz hadn't appeared from nowhere, Lynch doesn't escape the Top 10.

That's not to say Lynch doesn't have some parts of his game that need improvement but you can't coach height (to see over the linemen) or speed (to run bootlegs, eh Peyton?) or a strong downfield arm and Lynch has all three. We just have to hope he has what it takes between the ears and, if so, he could be the next Aaron Rodgers.

[BroncoJoe]

I'm not sure anyone thought we'd have a shot at Lynch before the draft.

Once he fell out of the top 15, I started to get interested and thought we might be able to get him. I figured there was a chance the Bills might take him, along with the Jets.

Once he passed the Jets at 20, my only concern was the Steelers who might want him as the heir-apparent to Ben.

As soon as I heard of our trade up after the Steelers selected Burns, I knew Lynch was going to be a Bronco.

[tomjonesrocks]

I'm not sure anyone thought we'd have a shot at Lynch before the draft. Once he fell out of the top 15, I started to get interested and thought we might be able to get him. I figured there was a chance the Bills might take him, along with the Jets. Once he passed the Jets at 20, my only concern was the Steelers who might want him as the heir-apparent to Ben. As soon as I heard of our trade up after the Steelers selected Burns, I knew Lynch was going to be a Bronco.

I thought he was Denver's once he got past the Jets. I had heard Denver had a deal with GB to beat the Chiefs. Hadn't heard Jerry had an interest - so that got much more intense than I was aware.

[Poet]

When the Jets didn't pull the trigger I got excited.

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

When the Jets didn't pull the trigger I got excited.

Excited?

[Poet]

Excited?

You know, in a state of stimulation.

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

You know, in a state of stimulation.

:laugh:

[TXBRONC]

I'm not sure anyone thought we'd have a shot at Lynch before the draft.

Once he fell out of the top 15, I started to get interested and thought we might be able to get him. I figured there was a chance the Bills might take him, along with the Jets.

Once he passed the Jets at 20, my only concern was the Steelers who might want him as the heir-apparent to Ben.

As soon as I heard of our trade up after the Steelers selected Burns, I knew Lynch was going to be a Bronco.

I never that it was completely impossible even after the picks one and two were traded to other teams. But if I would just about the farm that Denver would have to go up to 15 to get him

[WARHORSE]

I have a really good feeling about Paxton. Who would have thought we would have drafted the most physically talented QB right after winning a Super Bowl?


I was thinking the same thing......I got a feeling about Lynch. Love what he brings to the table and he fits our signal caller profile to the T.

Surprisingly athletic for a dude so tall and has a howitzer for an arm.

[atwater27]

I cant believe how fast his legs move. Tall people are usually long striders. This dude when he runs his feet are going like the roadrunner.

[Dzone]

Lynch plays like a shorter qb. Lynch is quick, fast twitch and athletic.
Osweiller plays like a guy who is 6-8 , slow and clutzy.

[Traveler]

Best part is DT & Sanders remain relevant. Hated the idea of Kaepernick being our starting QB.

[Dzone]

Hated the idea of Kaepernick being our starting QB.

Kaepernick makes me want to puke

[Cugel]

Well, we won't have to worry about Kaepernick or Brian Hoyer. That's the best thing.

Upside of Lynch is much greater than Kaepernick. And Hoyer was just beyond horrible in the playoffs. He's completely worthless.

And instead of paying Brock Osweiler $16 M a year they are paying Lynch $2.5 M a year - saving $15m a year.

[DenBronx]

Lynch plays like a shorter qb. Lynch is quick, fast twitch and athletic.
Osweiller plays like a guy who is 6-8 , slow and clutzy.

Slow and clutzy isn't going to work when he faces VonWareWolfe this year. He better not be wearing white that day.

[Dzone]

Lets not forget that Marino had a worse wonderlick score and tore the league up in his first season

[DT88TheGreat]

I was thinking the same thing......I got a feeling about Lynch. Love what he brings to the table and he fits our signal caller profile to the T.

Surprisingly athletic for a dude so tall and has a howitzer for an arm.


I have a really good feeling about Paxton. Who would have thought we would have drafted the most physically talented QB right after winning a Super Bowl?


Lynch plays like a shorter qb. Lynch is quick, fast twitch and athletic.
Osweiller plays like a guy who is 6-8 , slow and clutzy.

[QUOTE=Cugel;2487843]This is a little noted aspect of the Paxton Lynch drafting, but it's importance cannot be overstated, and you know Elway was thinking of this all along.

3 years ago when the Broncos were crushed in the SB by the Seattle Seahawks 43-8, John Elway privately made a decision that ultimately resulted in a SB Championship. He was going to abandon reliance upon Denver's record setting offense and build a Championship Defense to rival Seattle's.

We know the story. He went out in FA and signed Aquib Talib, DeMarcus Ware, TJ Ward, Brandon Marshall and Darien Stewart. He drafted guys like Bradley Roby and Shane Ray. He fired his coaching staff in 2015 and brought in Kubiak and Wade Phillips. He created one of the best defenses in NFL history and won a SB.

Two years later (the fastest turnaround time from SB loser to winner in 43 years), the Broncos are World Champions.

But, there's another aspect to the Seattle success that few have noted but that Elway has not missed. They have managed their salary cap brilliantly in order to keep their defense together.

Normally, great defenses win championships, but in the salary cap and FA era it's impossible to keep together a great defense for long. Players want to cash in and get paid. Veterans want contract extensions for a lot more money. Everybody in the NFL is trying to dismantle the SB winning and steal their players. We saw that this year with teams giving $15M a year to Malik Jackson, and the Bears $7M a year to Danny Trevathan.

Seahawks Success Story: The Seahawks however, have been remarkably successful in keeping every single key player on their entire defense. They haven't lost anybody significant.

They did this by re-signing players a year early: Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, Bobby Wagner, Kam Chancellor, KJ Wright - NONE of them was allowed to hit FA and get away. The core of their great defense is all under contract for years to come.

But how were they able to do this? The key was that they were paying Russell Wilson less than $1M a year on his rookie contract for 4 years. That allowed them to pay their defenders and keep them. Then after Wilson's SB win, they were able to give him a new contract for year 5 that pays him $22M a year. But, that was in year 5.

Elway meanwhile had a problem. He was paying Peyton Manning $19-20M a year. In 2015 he re-negotiated a reduced contract, but it was still $15M a year.

But, in drafting Paxton Lynch with the #26 pick of the draft, the Broncos are committed to paying somewhere between $9.5 and $10M total for 4 years, with a 5th year option. That's $2.5M a year.
(http://www.ibtimes.com/nfl-draft-2016-contracts-projected-salaries-all-first-round-picks-2361279)
Paying your starting QB $2.5 M a year instead of $16-$22M is a cap savings of at least $62M over 4 years! That means that Elway should be able to re-sign all his core veteran defenders over the next several years. It means they can afford to re-sign Von Miller (and I would expect that contract to get done fairly soon now that the draft is over and the Broncos are not going to be offering $7 or $8 M a year to Colin Kaepernick).

It means they can afford to re-do Brandon Marshall's contract next off-season as well as getting Darien Stewart re-signed. It means that if they need to go out in FA and get a DL and pay him $10 M for a season they could do it. They will have the same kind of flexibility to lock up their core players for years to come that have made Seattle such a successful franchise these last 5 years.

If the Broncos can coach up Paxton Lynch to be a good (not even great) starting QB over the next few years, that 5th year rookie contract will be paying dividends for years to come.

This is just brilliant cap management. Elway simply ran rings around teams like the Chiefs, the Cowboys and Browns who all wanted to get Paxton Lynch at the end of the first round. And he's secured the Broncos team future.

This is what he's talking about when he said "We don't want to win now. We want to win from now on." It's the kind of move that a superior franchise makes to make themselves a SB contender for years. :beer:

"John Elway is playing chess, while other GMs are playing checkers." -- Cecil


Oh my my my how fast fans can switch up after a rookie plays two games, win one lose one and completes 60% of his passes. But he's a bust a year later....

[DT88TheGreat]

Lets not forget that Marino had a worse wonderlick score and tore the league up in his first season

Even dan hall of fame Marino had a bad wonderlic huh? But lynch will never grasp the nfl

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

Even dan hall of fame Marino had a bad wonderlic huh? But lynch will never grasp the nfl

Marino proved he could get past his first progression.....either way I really hope the kid succeeds. He unfortunately hasn’t show me anything to suggest he can be anything other than a one read and run quarterback for the time being.

[Freyaka]

Even dan hall of fame Marino had a bad wonderlic huh? But lynch will never grasp the nfl

Can't find enough people to talk to you so you have to resort to bumping year old threads that haven't seen action since may of 2016? Neat.

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

Well, we won't have to worry about Kaepernick or Brian Hoyer. That's the best thing.

Upside of Lynch is much greater than Kaepernick. And Hoyer was just beyond horrible in the playoffs. He's completely worthless.

And instead of paying Brock Osweiler $16 M a year they are paying Lynch $2.5 M a year - saving $15m a year.

How is the upside of Lynch greater? They seem to be fairly similar: big arms with accuracy and mechanics issues; need the field cut in half. Kaepernick is a lot faster however. Lynch won’t be outrunning linebackers.

[BroncoTech]

I think Lynch is a bust but we do need to put this issue to rest. Maybe we'll see tomorrow in the rain and wind forecast here in Oakland. I think Kap sucked but was surprised by his stats from last year, they were servicable. I liked Sloter so maybe I'm just dumb.

[topscribe]

Can't find enough people to talk to you so you have to resort to bumping year old threads that haven't seen action since may of 2016? Neat.
No, I think he's responding to the way he's been attacked for backing Paxton Lynch.
Maybe he overdid it a little. But I think you other guys made up for it . . .

[BroncoWave]

No, I think he's responding to the way he's been attacked for backing Paxton Lynch.
Maybe he overdid it a little. But I think you other guys made up for it . . .

He doesn't get "attacked" because he defends PL. He gets "attacked" because he does nothing but troll and pick fights.

[topscribe]

He doesn't get "attacked" because he defends PL. He gets "attacked" because he does nothing but troll and pick fights.
Well, that could be, too. I haven't been around enough lately to witness everything . . .

[Northman]

I think Lynch is a bust but we do need to put this issue to rest. Maybe we'll see tomorrow in the rain and wind forecast here in Oakland. I think Kap sucked but was surprised by his stats from last year, they were servicable. I liked Sloter so maybe I'm just dumb.

Sloter had some nice mechanics but he never played against starters so i stop short of saying he would of been better than what we have. But i agree about Lynch and the bust factor, i just dont think he will be any good but also agree that we need to let him finish the season to get the necessary looks that is needed so that we can move on in the offseason.

[Freyaka]

No, I think he's responding to the way he's been attacked for backing Paxton Lynch.
Maybe he overdid it a little. But I think you other guys made up for it . . .

So top, are you and he going to become besties now? The dude deserves every thing he's getting. He's basically an abrasive troll that from day one picked a fight with anyone that didn't agree with him. If you don't think that Lynch is going to be a great QB, he's going to talk crap on you. Also he's Yash/Lynch12 so...

[topscribe]

So top, are you and he going to become besties now? The dude deserves every thing he's getting. He's basically an abrasive troll that from day one picked a fight with anyone that didn't agree with him. If you don't think that Lynch is going to be a great QB, he's going to talk crap on you. Also he's Yash/Lynch12 so...
Please refer to Post #27 in this thread . . .

[DT88TheGreat]

Marino proved he could get past his first progression.....either way I really hope the kid succeeds. He unfortunately hasn’t show me anything to suggest he can be anything other than a one read and run quarterback for the time being.

He's started 2 GAMES!!!!!!!! What more can he literally show people? And the 2 games he actually played as a ROOKIE who had no business on the field until 2 year's minimum still completed 60% of his throws and went .500.... What more did you realistically expect from him? Good grief..... Trevor couldn't do anything.but stare down his first read for two years straight. And still got a pass around here but Paxton is a bust? People come up with all kinds of excuses too bash Paxton.... Well Marino proved he could blah blah......

Support the kid, he has the talent, he needs the patience of whatever franchise...every scout knew this and said this, but yet he's a bust around here... After people in this thread praising him... What a joke

[DT88TheGreat]

Picked a fight?

What is a internet fight?

My goodness this is sad.

[FanInAZ]

I haven't been around enough lately to witness everything . . .

Did that have anything to do with your desire to preserve your sanity?

[topscribe]

Did that have anything to do with your desire to preserve your sanity?
lol

[MOtorboat]

Quality bump.

:2thumbs:

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

He's started 2 GAMES!!!!!!!! What more can he literally show people? And the 2 games he actually played as a ROOKIE who had no business on the field until 2 year's minimum still completed 60% of his throws and went .500.... What more did you realistically expect from him? Good grief..... Trevor couldn't do anything.but stare down his first read for two years straight. And still got a pass around here but Paxton is a bust? People come up with all kinds of excuses too bash Paxton.... Well Marino proved he could blah blah......

Support the kid, he has the talent, he needs the patience of whatever franchise...every scout knew this and said this, but yet he's a bust around here... After people in this thread praising him... What a joke

Settle down, he’ll get his chance. Just because I’m concerned about his football iq doesn’t mean I’m a hater.
He obviously has physical tools. I’m just hoping he can demonstrate the ability to grasp the cerebral part of the game.

If the worst we get out of him is Vince Young 2.0 that would be ok.

[Freyaka]

He's started 2 GAMES!!!!!!!! What more can he literally show people? And the 2 games he actually played as a ROOKIE who had no business on the field until 2 year's minimum still completed 60% of his throws and went .500.... What more did you realistically expect from him? Good grief..... Trevor couldn't do anything.but stare down his first read for two years straight. And still got a pass around here but Paxton is a bust? People come up with all kinds of excuses too bash Paxton.... Well Marino proved he could blah blah......

Support the kid, he has the talent, he needs the patience of whatever franchise...every scout knew this and said this, but yet he's a bust around here... After people in this thread praising him... What a joke

I thought it didn't bother you?

[Simple Jaded]

So top, are you and he going to become besties now? The dude deserves every thing he's getting. He's basically an abrasive troll that from day one picked a fight with anyone that didn't agree with him. If you don't think that Lynch is going to be a great QB, he's going to talk crap on you. Also he's Yash/Lynch12 so...

Why don’t you calm the **** down?

[BroncoWave]

Picked a fight?

What is a internet fight?

My goodness this is sad.

an*

[Northman]

I thought it didn't bother you?

:lol:

[aberdien]

Genius!

[Bronco4ever]

He just needs more experience.

[Cugel]

Oh my my my how fast fans can switch up after a rookie plays two games, win one lose one and completes 60% of his passes. But he's a bust a year later....

Thanks for reviving that thread. In re-reading it I feel pretty good about what I said. Elway was trying to get a Franchise QB on the cheap. If Paxton Lynch had worked out, then right now Denver would probably be 8-3 and looking to get home field advantage in the playoffs.

The defense wouldn't be worn down, they would be using Jamaal Charles for something. Cody Latimer wouldn't be the #3 WR. One of the TEs would have learned to catch the ball. Birds would be singing, children would be playing in the fields. Things would be good.

But, it was not to be. Paxton sucked and now it's abundantly clear. The team lifted it's head like a wilted flower the minute Paxton left the game, and Trevor came in. Suddenly, it was as if the players felt "now we have a chance." And they scored two quick TDs. Now the feeling in the locker-room is even more "we have a chance to win with Trevor in there, and no chance with Paxton."

They simply cannot continue with Paxton. The team will absolutely quit if he stays in. You saw the difference in energy when Trevor came in.

And NO, absolutely freakin' NO, Trevor Siemian will not EVER, no NEVER be the long term franchise QB of the Broncos. He's just flat not good enough. But, he's better than Paxton Lynch. And that was apparent again today.

The path forward is clear. The future franchise QB for the Broncos is in the 2018 draft in which Denver currently has the #5 pick. If they can only lose to the Colts, they could wind up with as high as the #3 pick, which would guarantee them one of the top 3 QB picks. Even at #5 they could easily move up to #3 to get a QB they liked by giving up a 3rd round pick, or a 2nd in the 2019 draft.

[Cugel]

He just needs more experience.

Yes. Perhaps in another life he'll get it together. Not in this one though.

[DT88TheGreat]

Lol genius moves always work out cugel......

[Cugel]

Lol genius moves always work out cugel......

No, obviously they don't. It worked for Seattle, but not Denver.

Drafting Paxton was considered a good move by virtually every draft expert. Jerry Jones was publicly angry with his player personnel staff for talking him out of moving up in the draft ahead of the Broncos to grab Lynch. If they had done that, there would have been consternation and bitterness in Denver, and much chortling by the Cowboys about how they swooped in ahead of John Elway and stole his franchise QB, right out from under his nose.

And now, less than 2 years later not one GM in the NFL would give a draft pick for Paxton Lynch. It's questionable whether anybody would give a 7th round pick for him now. He looks just like every other 1st round QB bust. A guy who "doesn't get it" in the film room. A guy who isn't a great leader in the locker-room or on the field. A guy who buries his head in his towel and cries because he knows he just blew his last best chance to resurrect his broken career.

He will get other chances. Elway isn't going to give up on his pick. But, the hand-writing is clear on the wall. This guy just can't play. He wilts under pressure, and the team just plays flat with him in there because nobody believes they have a chance with him starting.

[ShaneFalco]

glad i never participated in this cluster****.

[Freyaka]

Why don’t you calm the **** down?

I'm quite calm, are you calm? I think we're all pretty chill here.

[Simple Jaded]

I'm quite calm, are you calm? I think we're all pretty chill here.

Hell yes I’m calm.

We need to stop freaking out out here, we gotta keep our composure. There’s too much at stake, we got too much to lose.

Keep our composure.

[Freyaka]

Hell yes I’m calm.

We need to stop freaking out out here, we gotta keep our composure. There’s too much at stake, we got too much to lose.

Keep our composure.

Glad we are all such a level headed group.

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

Glad we are all such a level headed group.

11486

[Northman]

Hell yes I’m calm.

We need to stop freaking out out here, we gotta keep our composure. There’s too much at stake, we got too much to lose.

Keep our composure.

Somebody wasnt listening Jaded, you are doing it all wrong....

http://larrybrownsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/paxton-lynch-crying.jpg

[aberdien]

https://media.tenor.com/images/27ca1335ecec304d6bc5a53ce330960e/tenor.gif

[Hawgdriver]

Looks like a swing and a miss.

[Nomad]

I really wish you would of been right, Cugel.

[wayninja]

Someone had this thread in their back pocket.

[Nomad]

Someone had this thread in their back pocket.

I think it really sucks, because the Broncos are still in search for their franchise QB. Perhaps Keenum, or Kelly, can be that guy.

[Poet]

Hindsight is a bitch. At the time, it's hard to fault a GM for drafting a guy with tremendous talent who was good in college, and didn't have character questions coming out of school.

Lynch was just too stupid to play football. Then he started getting rattled and never recovered. He just didn't have it. I think I will always have a grudge against Lynch because he's the reason why we had to watch so many Siemian games.

[I Eat Staples]

I'll go on record saying I really liked the pick at the time too. And if we hadn't drafted him in the 1st round, another team would have.

Sometimes good prospects just don't work out.

[Northman]

I want to hear from Cugel how stupid Elway is for cutting him.

[Poet]

I'll go on record saying I really liked the pick at the time too. And if we hadn't drafted him in the 1st round, another team would have.

Sometimes good prospects just don't work out.

Teams were moving up for him. We did. The Cowboys wanted to. Sometimes good draft maneuvering doesn't work out.

[Cugel]

I really wish you would of been right, Cugel.

Everybody thought it was a genius cap move at the time. And it would have worked out IF Paxton had been capable of learning to play QB in the NFL.

Getting your franchise QB in for five years at $2.5m a year is great cap management, like I said. It's just that Paxton flamed out and never learned to be of the slightest use.

They kept him on the 53 man roster for the final cuts, because they hadn't found that 3rd veteran QB to bring in as an experienced backup if Case got hurt. So, they cut Paxton, went out and signed a veteran who can come in and replace Keenum if he goes down for a few games. Kelly can continue to develop for another 2 years behind Keenum.

Then either Kelly becomes your starter, or else if Keenum becomes a star, you trade Kelly for a 2nd rounder like Jimmy Garapolo.

Clearly, after Thursday night they realized that Chad Kelly is a developmental guy yet. He's not ready to start in this league if Keenum goes down for 3 or 4 games.

The logic of always having a developmental QB on your roster who might become your franchise QB is still true though, it just didn't work out with Paxton.

[Hawgdriver]

Yeah, it's just a shame, but ever onward.

[Cugel]

I want to hear from Cugel how stupid Elway is for cutting him.

What? Because I thought Paxton would be good in 2016 when he was drafted that means I can't change my mind later?

If you want to criticize me for thinking that all the fans, media and experts were right and that Paxton was a great prospect, go ahead. I loved the Paxton pick at the time and thought they had drafted their franchise QB. Lots of people thought that.

Elway thought so too, for far longer than I did. When he failed to develop after his first season, I lost hope in him. Now it's his 3rd season and he still really never developed. The plays he ran Thursday night against scrubs were the RPO ones he does well. Short dump offs for the most part.

[FanInAZ]

Teams were moving up for him. We did. The Cowboys wanted to. Sometimes good draft maneuvering doesn't work out.

Yep, and they had so settle for some guy named Dak Prescott...



...who was one of my prized keepers from last year :D

[Poet]

Yep, and they had so settle for some guy named Dak Prescott...



...who was one of my prized keepers from last year :D

Dak is very much an average QB with some upside. He's definitely not an elite QB, so I have no idea why he's useful in any fantasy league. However, I'd kill for Dak to be our starter right now.

[FanInAZ]

Dak is very much an average QB with some upside. He's definitely not an elite QB, so I have no idea why he's useful in any fantasy league. However, I'd kill for Dak to be our starter right now.

Do you play fantasy football? Its all about generating stats, which he was elite at except, during Elliott's suspension.

[Hawgdriver]

Dak is very much an average QB with some upside. He's definitely not an elite QB, so I have no idea why he's useful in any fantasy league. However, I'd kill for Dak to be our starter right now.

I think he might run a little.

[Poet]

Do you play fantasy football? Its all about generating stats, which he was elite at except, during Elliott's suspension.

Dak isn't a big time fantasy QB. He throws for a modest amount of TDs and usually hasn't sniffed 4k yards, either.

[Poet]

I think he might run a little.

Even with the running it's not like he's racking up major TDs. He has like what, five TDs rushing a year? Maybe 500 yards or so? Has he even cracked the top ten in points for QB's?

[Hawgdriver]

Even with the running it's not like he's racking up major TDs. He has like what, five TDs rushing a year? Maybe 500 yards or so? Has he even cracked the top ten in points for QB's?

No idea. I wouldn't expect him to be that attractive as a fantasy QB, but I know that the running part can skew it.

[FanInAZ]

Dak isn't a big time fantasy QB. He throws for a modest amount of TDs and usually hasn't sniffed 4k yards, either.

He was on my team last year & ranked in the top 10 in total FF points for QBs until Elliott's suspension.

[Hawgdriver]

I think during his rookie year he was one of the top fantasy QBs in point production. He's been unable to maintain that performance.

[Hawgdriver]

He was on my team last year & ranked in the top 10 in total FF points for QBs until Elliott's suspension.

There you have it.

[Poet]

He was on my team last year & ranked in the top 10 in total FF points for QBs until Elliott's suspension.

Ugh. QB play in the league is down a lot. Last year there were a lot of QB injuries so that would explain a part of it.

Hope you're well, FIAZ!

[FanInAZ]

By the way, he finished 12th at his position in spite of his collapse during Elliott's suspension.

[FanInAZ]

Ugh. QB play in the league is down a lot. Last year there were a lot of QB injuries so that would explain a part of it.

Hope you're well, FIAZ!

Except he was in the top 10 the entire season.

[Poet]

Except he was in the top 10 the entire season.

Right, but if stud QB's get hurt, it becomes easier to stay in the top ten, though. There is no hill for either of us to die on, FIAZ. If you can't crack 4k yards in today's game, and you struggle to even push 30 TDs, you're not a top flight QB. I did forget about his running ability, which is probably what is keeping him in the top ten for fantasy. Ugh, I'm glad I quit playing fantasy football. No one would have Dak close to being in the top ten in real football, FFS I remember when Bortles was a fantasy stud. It just warps the perception of the game.

[FanInAZ]

Right, but if stud QB's get hurt, it becomes easier to stay in the top ten, though. There is no hill for either of us to die on, FIAZ. If you can't crack 4k yards in today's game, and you struggle to even push 30 TDs, you're not a top flight QB. I did forget about his running ability, which is probably what is keeping him in the top ten for fantasy. Ugh, I'm glad I quit playing fantasy football. No one would have Dak close to being in the top ten in real football, FFS I remember when Bortles was a fantasy stud. It just warps the perception of the game.

Never said he was a top 10 QB in real football. FF has little to do with real football, especially with all most all scoring systems putting too little weight on how much turnovers count against and sacks aren't counted at all. If people were willing to use my scoring system, which almost everyone refers to as "being too negative," then the FF ranking would bear a lot closer resemblance to real football.

[Poet]

Never said he was a top 10 QB in real football. FF has little to do with real football, especially with all most all scoring systems putting too little weight on how much turnovers count against and sacks aren't counted at all. If people were willing to use my scoring system, which almost everyone refers to as "being too negative," then the ff ranking would bear a lot closer resemblance to real football.

I know you didn't. I never said you did. You really seem staked out to have an argument with me over nothing. I don't know why. Have a good one.

[Valar Morghulis]

Prescott would be getting cut this year if he was drafted by Denver as well.

Take away his running game and he is just as limited as Paxton

*hides behind couch*

[Poet]

Prescott would be getting cut this year if he was drafted by Denver as well.

Take away his running game and he is just as limited as Paxton

*hides behind couch*
He’s a smart player, though. He’d just be closer to what he really is, imo.

[Cugel]

Dak is very much an average QB with some upside. He's definitely not an elite QB, so I have no idea why he's useful in any fantasy league. However, I'd kill for Dak to be our starter right now.

WELL NOW, let's take a look at that statement and see if it holds any water! Cause I'm kinda thinking not, just on first looksy. Is Dak Prescott better than Case Keenum?

2017 Regular Season NFL Leaders ranked by "Total QB Rating" by ESPN (http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/qualified/false_1) (their official QB ranking system):

RK PLAYER PTS ADDED PASS RUN PENALTY TOTAL EPA QB PLAYS RAW QBR TOTAL QBR
1 Carson Wentz, PHI 48.9 59.1 10.0 5.4 85.9 567 77.2 78.5
2 Case Keenum, MIN 43.3 56.1 10.5 8.0 85.3 577 74.3 72.8
3 Tom Brady, NE 49.0 74.1 -3.1 10.3 96.5 689 73.2 70.6
4 Dak Prescott, DAL 36.3 37.4 24.4 5.9 79.4 622 69.5 69.9
5 Matt Ryan, ATL 33.1 60.2 6.6 3.8 81.3 612 68.3 67.1
6 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 30.6 61.6 2.6 8.4 82.5 639 66.3 66.6
7 Matthew Stafford, DET 30.3 50.7 6.4 4.0 81.2 678 65.3 65.2
8 Alex Smith, KC 32.1 52.6 13.9 2.5 84.3 642 67.0 65.1
9 Drew Brees, NO 25.3 56.5 1.0 0.6 67.6 596 64.6 62.5
10 Russell Wilson, SEA 24.4 37.7 23.6 2.3 82.5 724 61.7 61.9

What does that gobbley-gook mean you ask? That number for Case Keenum: 72.8%? That was the statistical probability of winning, after subtracting the contributions of team-mates.

How likely a team was to win just because they had that player.

And his rating was higher last year than Dak Prescott. Was top 2 in the league in efficiency last year. That's really good play. You can tell the system is a good one because the QBs at the top of the list - other than Keenum are Carson Wentz, Brady, Ryan, Stafford, Brees, Wilson. That's just a roster of the best QBs in the league.

So, the statistical measure returns a list of what everybody knows are the best QBs in the league, not surprising if the system makes sense, but Keenum was 2nd in the league?


"the per-play measure of efficiency is translated to a number on a 0-to-100 scale to produce a player’s Total QBR.

An average quarterback will have a QBR around 50, and a Pro Bowl-level player will have a QBR around 75 for the season. On a game level, however, a QBR of 75 means that holding all other factors constant (defense, offensive teammates, etc.), a quarterback’s team would be expected to win about 75 percent of time, given that level of QB play."

Keenum's performance last year was statistically better than every QB in the league other than Carson Wentz. According to ESPN.

You can criticize their system because you don't understand it, but there it is in black and white numbers. Last year Keenum played better than anybody in the league but Wentz. That doesn't take into account how you do in the playoffs of course. That can be different as Alex Smith can tell you.

You can say "Keenum just had one career season! He'll never do that again!" Lots of people think that. But, it's not necessarily true.

What IS necessarily, logically true is that if someone has already done something, they are generally theoretically capable of doing that thing again.

He could very well do it again if he's done it once, and your doubting him doesn't matter at all. It's not what YOU believe, but what HE believes. HE has to believe it for it to happen. And having done it gives him confidence he can continue to do it!

Being successful at that level leads to more confidence, leads to more success. That's how the very good QBs work.

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

Saying Jerry wanted to draft Paxton is not a ringing endorsement. Jerry also wanted to draft Manziel who should have lasted until the 3rd or 4th.

[Simple Jaded]

Yes, Dak Prescott is better than Case Romo.