Alfred Morris signs with Cowboys

[Northman]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/15040471/former-washington-redskins-rb-alfred-morris-sign-two-year-deal-rival-dallas-cowboys

[turftoad]

Oh well. I thought he would have been a good cheap addition with his history in the zone blocking scheme behind CJ.

[Ravage!!!]

Oh well. I thought he would have been a good cheap addition with his history in the zone blocking scheme behind CJ.

Along with CJ... I don't think he's a lesser runner than CJ.

[dogfish]

Along with CJ... I don't think he's a lesser runner than CJ.

maybe two or three years ago. . . last year, morris ran for 3.7 YPC-- CJ went for 4.7. . . you can't explain that much discrepancy just with the fact they were in different systems. . .

[Joel]

maybe two or three years ago. . . last year, morris ran for 3.7 YPC-- CJ went for 4.7. . . you can't explain that much discrepancy just with the fact they were in different systems. . .
It's called Washington's a train wreck rotting from the Snyder down. Remember when Orakpo and Kerrigan were going to be All Pros for a decade? Kinda like RG III was. Remember when DeAngelo Hall was elite? Maybe Alfred Morris is just a fragile locker room cancer with a low ceiling an unwilling to cooperate with his coach. Unfortunately for Morris, Jerry Jones makes Snyder look like a competent hands off owner who hires staff on merit and willingly delegates management to them.

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

Come on Rav...Alfred is not cj.

[Valar Morghulis]

Come on Rav...Alfred is not cj.

I stand with rav on this.

If anything I think Morris is more durable

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

I stand with rav on this.

If anything I think Morris is more durable

Wha? 3 years ago this had merit. Dallas has no #1. The signing made sense.

[weazel]

cheap contract, Broncos should have made an offer. I guess I don't respect CJ as much as others do and think he's getting way overpaid.

[Ravage!!!]

maybe two or three years ago. . . last year, morris ran for 3.7 YPC-- CJ went for 4.7. . . you can't explain that much discrepancy just with the fact they were in different systems. . .

OMG.. seriously.. the stat page again on ypc is how you determine talent and abilities? You are better than his, dog.

[Ravage!!!]

Come on Rav...Alfred is not cj.

I don't know what you mean. He's been better in his career, and CJ isn't all that. I just don't see CJ being as good as most on the board do, I guess. As Valar pointed out, Morris has been a lot more durable than CJ has. CJ just isn't some rockstar. He's "ok."

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

I don't know what you mean. He's been better in his career, and CJ isn't all that. I just don't see CJ being as good as most on the board do, I guess. As Valar pointed out, Morris has been a lot more durable than CJ has. CJ just isn't some rockstar. He's "ok."

I was confusing Arian Foster with Morris. Nevertheless, Morris averaged less than 4 ypc the last 2 years.

I think CJ's biggest issue is staying healthy.

[Northman]

CJ is good, not great. But Morris isnt great either so in my opinion both players are a wash. Doesnt mean i would have minded having Morris here but lets not pretend Alfred was Walter Payton here. lol

[weazel]

CJ is good, not great. But Morris isnt great either so in my opinion both players are a wash. Doesnt mean i would have minded having Morris here but lets not pretend Alfred was Walter Payton here. lol

I dont think anyone is saying Morris is great. It''s a cheap contract for a player that isn't any worse than the player they just overpaid. I guess I just dont like Anderson, I think he sucks balls

[Northman]

I dont think anyone is saying Morris is great. It''s a cheap contract for a player that isn't any worse than the player they just overpaid. I guess I just dont like Anderson, I think he sucks balls

Not sure how you have come to that conclusion honestly. Considering the poor Oline we have the fact that CJ has been able to make any plays at all is nothing short of amazing. Is he worth what we paid him? Probably not but then until i see what he can do with a better Oline i think he has the potential to be a great player. My only real concern is his injury history. But Morris got totally outplayed by his backups last year so im not sure if Morris is even worth a cheap contract to be honest.

[weazel]

Not sure how you have come to that conclusion honestly. Considering the poor Oline we have the fact that CJ has been able to make any plays at all is nothing short of amazing. Is he worth what we paid him? Probably not but then until i see what he can do with a better Oline i think he has the potential to be a great player. My only real concern is his injury history. But Morris got totally outplayed by his backups last year so im not sure if Morris is even worth a cheap contract to be honest.

I guess... if the OLine is getting 100% of the blame for a poor running game. Do they get 100% of the gratitude when the RB is great too then? So maybe TD was a mediocre RB and it was all the OLine. Just playing devil's advocate.

[slim]

This reminds me of time Rav tried to convince me Trent Richardson was good.

YPC matters

[Northman]

I guess... if the OLine is getting 100% of the blame for a poor running game. Do they get 100% of the gratitude when the RB is great too then? So maybe TD was a mediocre RB and it was all the OLine. Just playing devil's advocate.

I never said they get 100% of the blame but i think you would have to be kind of naive to think that the Oline we have in place is remotely in the league of the one we had in the late 90's. And no TD was not mediocre but as we saw with guys like Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson the Oline can have its own effect on the running game as those backs were decent but had a lot of success hinge on the Oline. CJ is not anywhere near in TD's league as a back but he really isnt getting paid like that either. Not sure why people are freaking out that much on CJ's contract as its really not that big in terms of pay. Its more than he is probably worth at the moment but its not setting the team back by any means.

[weazel]

This reminds me of time Rav tried to convince me Trent Richardson was good.

YPC matters

again... nobody on here is saying Morris is good. The only name being thrown about as being good is CJ, which I disagree with, he is average at best.

[slim]

again... nobody on here is saying Morris is good.

Are you sure?

I think a few people have said so. I can bump the posts if you like.

[weazel]

Are you sure?

I think a few people have said so. I can bump the posts if you like.

then I stand corrected. I never said he was good, I said he was cheap and not any worse than what we have. I would definitely take him over Hillman

[Ravage!!!]

This reminds me of time Rav tried to convince me Trent Richardson was good.

YPC matters

its not ALL that matters Slim. It's like using ANY stat to determine how good a player is. Tell me how good the QBs are by using their "QBR" next, ok?

[Poet]

Stats matter, but they don't tell the entire story.

[slim]

its not ALL that matters Slim. It's like using ANY stat to determine how good a player is. Tell me how good the QBs are by using their "QBR" next, ok?

Well, I mostly agree.

I won't discuss QBR because I don't have a clue how it's calculated, but YPC is a pretty telling stat for a RB.

[Joel]

I guess... if the OLine is getting 100% of the blame for a poor running game. Do they get 100% of the gratitude when the RB is great too then? So maybe TD was a mediocre RB and it was all the OLine. Just playing devil's advocate.
Of course you realize many people did say our once endless series of RBs churning out 1000 yd seasons was just the system, but Terrell Davis outproduced all of them—including Clinton Portis—by a wide margin. Much as CJ has outproduced all the other RBs we've had while he's been here. Incidentally:

Terrell Davis' career rushing average is 4.6. And while he was hurt a lot his last years, that also meant all three of those seasons COMBINED only accounted for about one full seasons worth of carries, so didn't lower his career average much (stuff like this is what makes YPC such a great stat.) His first four years, the good ones, he averaged 4.7, 4.5, 4.7 and 5.1: The only time he topped 5 yds/att was the 2000 yd season. The other seasons, his average was in line with CJs 4.7 last year behind a FAR worse line (that only allowed Hillman 4.2, the perennial NFL "average average," and that's rounding up.)

So it wasn't all the line for Terrell Davis, because NONE of his successors came close to matching him, though all did well and Portis very well. It's also not all the line for CJ, because NONE of his teammates came close to matching him (Thompson did the best; Hillman and Ball only matched the NFL average.)

None of that's to say Morris sucks; his line matters, too, and the 'Skins have so many systemic problems it's hard to be sure Morris' recent production drop is entirely or even mainly a reflection of him. It's simply to say that if CJ averaged 4.7 yds/att over two years with a line as TERRIBLE as ours, imagine what he can do now that we're aggressively rebuilding it. It'd be nice to have him AND Morris, but I think we'll be fine with "just" CJ.

[Joel]

Well, I mostly agree.

I won't discuss QBR because I don't have a clue how it's calculated, but YPC is a pretty telling stat for a RB.
It's apples and oranges: ESPN cooked up QBR with a proprietary formula, but what IS known about it is HIGHLY subjective. Near as I can tell, they don't think it's fair to give a 1st qtr 1st and 10 pass in a scoreless game the same weight as a 4th qtr 3rd/4th and 20 pass down multiple scores. ESPN thinks some passes matter more than others, and came up with a formula to reflect that, but doesn't have enough faith in it to tell anyone what it is.

This is a good time to note that ESPN was founded by the same Rasmussen family better known for the statistical analysis of politics: How much do you trust the numbers and stat weighting of people who said Romney would win by 5% when everyone else said he'd lose by that much (which he did)? Note that's not a partisan comment on politics, but purely a comment on the track record of statistical analysis by a particular group of statisticians.

Yards/attempt is almost literally not even in the same ballpark.

[Ravage!!!]

Well, I mostly agree.

I won't discuss QBR because I don't have a clue how it's calculated, but YPC is a pretty telling stat for a RB.

Other than the fact that it doesn't tell the entire story. It doesn't calculate anything into the stat. WHich is why many times, the eye test is much more accurate than the stats on a piece of paper. At least the eye and human mind takes into account the situations of what's on the field and how it happened.

Stats are only the entire story if all else is equal.

[weazel]

Of course you realize many people did say our once endless series of RBs churning out 1000 yd seasons was just the system, but Terrell Davis outproduced all of them—including Clinton Portis—by a wide margin. Much as CJ has outproduced all the other RBs we've had while he's been here. Incidentally:

Terrell Davis' career rushing average is 4.6. And while he was hurt a lot his last years, that also meant all three of those seasons COMBINED only accounted for about one full seasons worth of carries, so didn't lower his career average much (stuff like this is what makes YPC such a great stat.) His first four years, the good ones, he averaged 4.7, 4.5, 4.7 and 5.1: The only time he topped 5 yds/att was the 2000 yd season. The other seasons, his average was in line with CJs 4.7 last year behind a FAR worse line (that only allowed Hillman 4.2, the perennial NFL "average average," and that's rounding up.)

So it wasn't all the line for Terrell Davis, because NONE of his successors came close to matching him, though all did well and Portis very well. It's also not all the line for CJ, because NONE of his teammates came close to matching him (Thompson did the best; Hillman and Ball only matched the NFL average.)

None of that's to say Morris sucks; his line matters, too, and the 'Skins have so many systemic problems it's hard to be sure Morris' recent production drop is entirely or even mainly a reflection of him. It's simply to say that if CJ averaged 4.7 yds/att over two years with a line as TERRIBLE as ours, imagine what he can do now that we're aggressively rebuilding it. It'd be nice to have him AND Morris, but I think we'll be fine with "just" CJ.

wow, I wasn't saying TD was a product of the OLine... I was playing devils advocate, I even stated that in the post you guys!

[Poet]

Other than the fact that it doesn't tell the entire story. It doesn't calculate anything into the stat. WHich is why many times, the eye test is much more accurate than the stats on a piece of paper. At least the eye and human mind takes into account the situations of what's on the field and how it happened.

Stats are only the entire story if all else is equal.

You need the eye test and statistics in tandem because they account for one another's weakness. Even then it can be difficult to 'know'.

[BroncoJoe]

You need the eye test and statistics in tandem because they account for one another's weakness. Even then it can be difficult to 'know'.

Not if you're Ravage!!!

[Poet]

Not if you're Ravage!!!

I respect the eyeball test a lot, and I understand why R!!! loves it so. But if I 'had' to pick one or the other, I'd bank on the statistics, especially since rankings and analysis is getting so in depth.

[BroncoJoe]

I respect the eyeball test a lot, and I understand why R!!! loves it so. But if I 'had' to pick one or the other, I'd bank on the statistics, especially since rankings and analysis is getting so in depth.

It is a combination of the two, not one or the other. Ravage!!! consistently downgrades the importance of statistics.

[Poet]

It is a combination of the two, not one or the other. Ravage!!! consistently downgrades the importance of statistics.

I think R!!! probably is surrounded by fantasy football guys who only care about end product stats and nothing else. I presume that it drives him up a wall.

[BroncoJoe]

I think R!!! probably is surrounded by fantasy football guys who only care about end product stats and nothing else. I presume that it drives him up a wall.

I think he's surrounded by inmates of an asylum.

[slim]

I think he is surrounded by the skin of a fat man.

[Joel]

wow, I wasn't saying TD was a product of the OLine... I was playing devils advocate, I even stated that in the post you guys!
Right, but my point was that it's not so far fetched that people would apply the same argument even to the likes of Terrell Davis, because many people DO. Among the ten "tips" The Hidden Game of Football lists for getting into the Hall is "Never succeed a superstar," but Davis seems to have the opposite problem: So many of his successors performed well that the Devils Advocates against NFL sainthood claim he was just a system back.

One of the best arguments for Ravs case against stats as the ultimate measure of a player is that football is far more cooperative and less individualistic than most other sports, and the trenches are ground zero for that. Teams that can't control the line of scrimmage usually can't do much else either; even the best "skill" players end up compensating for that core deficiency instead of using a core strength as a launchpad to greater production.

One reason I and many other people like THGoF so much is that it was the first major effort to systematically analyze that. It literally invented DVOA and Win Probability, so people who appreciate those stats owe the authors a debt whether they realize it or not. There's a reason it speaks of the "hidden" game: All the moving parts on a football field greatly obscure the view of any one of them.

Unfortunately, when discussing the MEASURE of a player, stats are all we have that's objective and quantifiable so we can make valid reliable comparisons. Eye tests are great, but there's a reason engineers don't build skyscrapers, bridges and dams by rule of thumb: They need something more precise, less subjective and comprehensible to maintenance workers decades from now. Because otherwise people die.

When we can't normalize the other 21 variables (plus STs, plus 13 opponents/season) sometimes an eye test is all we've got. It's still hard to be sure whether CJ or Morris would perform better in the same environment. If Barry had had the Cowboys '90s line and D plus Aikman instead of Peete and Ware he probably wins multiple SBs and sets the career yardage record, too, but I don't Emmitt would've fared as well as Barry in Detroit.