Kirk Cousins, Brock Osweiler and the Looming Free-Agent QB Poker Match

[ChairmanBron]

Let's ante up for a game of free-agent quarterback poker.

Here are the cards we have been dealt: Sam Bradford, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brock Osweiler.

Not exactly four aces or even kings. More like jacks. They aren't really four of a kind, but you get the point: They have a lot in common.

All of them have shown last year's employers a little, but none has shown a lot. All would probably be happy to stay in their current locations if the money works out. All four of their current teams would like to keep them if the money is right. There is no bad blood at all, but there are hard economics at work.

The Eagles, Redskins, Jets and Broncos cannot afford to overpay based on small samples of decent-to-excellent performances. No one wants to roll out Aaron Rodgers money for these guys. But their teams don't want them to hit the open market, either. There are salary-cap, franchise-tag and other variables at play. And the first team to sign one of these quarterbacks sets the market for the others.

The team that pays first could overpay; the agent who signs first loses leverage.



Interesting read and guesses on certain scenarios..

continue reading here...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2617635-kirk-cousins-brock-osweiler-and-the-looming-free-agent-qb-poker-match



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[DenBronx]

Brock has more upside than all of them. The only other QB that is even remotely appealing would be Kap but I don't really care for him as a person. Character goes along way and so does staying healthy.

[Ravage!!!]

Brock has more upside than all of them. The only other QB that is even remotely appealing would be Kap but I don't really care for him as a person. Character goes along way and so does staying healthy.

Careful. You will be labeled a racist if you don't like Kaep's personality. You have to have another reason not to like him. "As a person" isn't valid anymore.

[Cugel]

Apparently, according to this report, the Broncos are just waiting to hear from Peyton Manning. I still have no idea why. Out of "respect"? What kind of nonsense is that? He ain't coming back and they don't want him back. They need to sign Osweiler and move on. Waiting until the FA deadline to try and sign Osweiler would be criminally stupid. What if he becomes a FA and some team makes a ridiculous offer? Then Manning retires. Then what?


Report: Broncos waiting on Osweiler talks out of respect for Manning
By Ryan Wilson | CBSSports.com
February 14, 2016 4:03 pm ET

Peyton Manning isn't saying whether he'll retire or not but it's reasonable to think that the 39-year-old quarterback, fresh off his second Super Bowl title, will decide to call it a career.

Either way, we'll know something by March 9, the official start of the new league year, when Manning's $19 million base salary ($21.5 million cap number) becomes fully guaranteed if he's still on the Broncos' roster.

In the meantime, the organization, out of respect for Manning, won't negotiate with the man who would replace him in Denver, soon-to-be free agent Brock Osweiler. This comes courtesy of KUSA's Mike Klis.

Osweiler, 25, was 5-2 as the Broncos' starter last season while Manning recovered from a torn plantar fascia. But Osweiler returned to the bench down the stretch and Manning and the Broncos' defense (OK, it was mostly the Broncos' defense) led the Super Bowl charge.

So for now, we wait.

Who will be the Broncos' quarterback next season: Peyton or Brock? (USATSI) Who will be the Broncos' quarterback next season: Peyton or Brock? (USATSI)

"We're going to enjoy this, let Peyton enjoy this,'' Broncos general manager John Elway said the day after the team beat the Panthers in Super Bowl 50. "I'm sure he'll sit down with his family. Eventually we'll talk to him too and go through that. There's no timeline for that right now.''

But that timeline is fast approaching. And if the Broncos really want to sign Osweiler to a multi-year deal and have him be the starter in 2016 -- and Klis says that's the case -- there's no reason to wait around.

Plus, Manning doesn't have much in the way of leverage beyond "I used to be really good." Also not helping his case: the Broncos' defense was dominant the entire season; there's no reason to pay an over-the-hill quarterback $19 million to serve as a game manager when you can find replacement-level production for much cheaper.

"In talking about retirement, that's what's hard, you can butt up to that line and then crossing that line, taking that final step, saying 'I am moving on,' that is very -- even if that first 99 percent is easy to get to, that last 1 percent is as hard as that first 99 percent ... That's why he's going to have the time he needs and it's basically going to be up to him," said Elway, who called it a career as a 38-year-old after leading the Broncos to back-to-back Lombardi trophies.

While Manning's teammates have been mostly supportive of his return, running back C.J. Anderson thinks there's no better time to hang it up than now.

"I think so, man," Anderson told NFL Total Access when asked if Manning should call it a career. "Let him ride off into the sunset in the correct way. What else does he have to do? He's got five MVPs, two Super Bowl rings, he's first in every statistical category. My man 18, man, walk off, man ... it was a pleasure, one-eight. I had fun with you."

Brock Osweiler supports this message.

[Ravage!!!]

There is nothing wrong with giving a player the respect they deserve, and no one said they are waiting for the FA market to hit. Try relaxing and quit jumping to such overboard conclusions. Manning said he would take the month to think it over, and that still is bfore the FA market hits. Lets not believe for a moment that agents aren't talking, and contracts aren't ready to go and ready to be offered. You don't think Elway adn company already have the number they re going to offer already ready to go?

chill out.

[Cugel]

The Splurge Scenario

Things get interesting if one team gets carried away and offers one of our quarterbacks [Kirk Cousins, Sam Bradford, Brock Osweiler, Ryan Fitzpatrick] Andy Dalton money—or Russell Wilson money or beyond. The most likely suspect in this scenario is the Redskins: Dan Snyder's wallet comes equipped with its own cannon, the organization and city are cuckoo for Cousins right now, and (unlike the Broncos) the Redskins have money to spend.

Washington could price the Broncos out of the Osweiler market by signing Cousins to some kind of $95 million gut-buster. That would open the door for a team with more cap space to swoop in and nab Osweiler. Let's say the Rams do exactly that.

Robbed of a quarterback to help them repeat in 2016 (and still eager to part ways with Manning), the Broncos would have to look to Bradford or Fitzpatrick—either of whom could lead that defense to the playoffs—while drafting for the future. The Eagles and/or Jets would rummage for Josh McCown types. Perhaps the Eagles would trade to bring back Foles or tag Bradford to keep him out of the chain reaction. Washington would drive away whistling like the careless driver who caused the six-car pileup.

This is a fun scenario to contemplate, but it's risky for all of the teams involved. That includes the Redskins; overpaying for quarterbacks never works for them. This scenario explains just how high the stakes of our poker game are: Some agent will come away from the market with a splashy new deal, but general managers don't want that first deal to be too splashy.

The idea here is that the first of the four QBs to sign sets the market. If Cousins gets Russell Wilson money - $22 M/ year, that would price Osweiler above the $15 M mark. The Rams have a lot of cap space so they could sign him at that price but the Broncos don't.

I hope that nothing like this happens, and the Redskins would be really stupid to offer Cousins that kind of contract, but they've been stupid in FA before now. . . .

[VonDoom]

There is nothing wrong with giving a player the respect they deserve, and no one said they are waiting for the FA market to hit. Try relaxing and quit jumping to such overboard conclusions. Manning said he would take the month to think it over, and that still is bfore the FA market hits. Lets not believe for a moment that agents aren't talking, and contracts aren't ready to go and ready to be offered. You don't think Elway adn company already have the number they re going to offer already ready to go?

chill out.

This. The body is still warm - they're not going to cut Manning ... yet. Ideally, they're giving him time to make his own announcement. If he drags his feet or if he decides he wants to come back, THEN they'll cut him. This will all take place before March 4, I would assume, when Manning has to take a physical to get his salary guaranteed. I suspect Rav is right - they're probably talking to Osweiler but don't want anything to go public yet. If we hit the start of free agency and nothing has happened, then worry. Until then, assume they know what they're doing.

[VonDoom]

The idea here is that the first of the four QBs to sign sets the market. If Cousins gets Russell Wilson money - $22 M/ year, that would price Osweiler above the $15 M mark. The Rams have a lot of cap space so they could sign him at that price but the Broncos don't.

I hope that nothing like this happens, and the Redskins would be really stupid to offer Cousins that kind of contract, but they've been stupid in FA before now. . . .

The Redskins aren't giving Cousins $22 million a year. That article even points out that the tag would be above his value, but it could work for them if they want him to "prove it" again next year. If they settle on an actual contract, he will get less than that annually. Cousins will probably get the biggest deal out of those QB's mentioned, since he has a larger body of work than Os and really looked good in the second half of last year.

[Lancane]

The Redskins aren't giving Cousins $22 million a year. That article even points out that the tag would be above his value, but it could work for them if they want him to "prove it" again next year. If they settle on an actual contract, he will get less than that annually. Cousins will probably get the biggest deal out of those QB's mentioned, since he has a larger body of work than Os and really looked good in the second half of last year.

It still sets the market VD, that is the problem because next to Cousins none have the upside and youth of Osweiler.

[Cugel]

The Redskins aren't giving Cousins $22 million a year. That article even points out that the tag would be above his value, but it could work for them if they want him to "prove it" again next year. If they settle on an actual contract, he will get less than that annually. Cousins will probably get the biggest deal out of those QB's mentioned, since he has a larger body of work than Os and really looked good in the second half of last year.

There has been some speculation in the press that they might offer him that kind of contract -- i.e. Andy Dalton money, or even Joe Flacco money. It's absurd I agree. Ridiculous on the face of it for a guy who was 2-7 in 9 previous starts before this season, and has 1 decent year as a starter - no post-season experience at all.

But, then I thought it was absurd for Miami to offer Ndamukong Suh a 6 year $114 M contract too, yet they did it. Teams do stupid things in FA sometimes. And Dan Snyder has a history of throwing ridiculous huge money at FAs even though everybody predicts it will blow up in his face, and then it does. So, there's precedent.

And of course, Osweiler won't get what Cousins gets either. It's just that his contract will set the benchmark for the 3 others, who will relate their clients' worth to what Cousins got. So, under this inflated scenario, if Cousins gets $22 M, what is Osweiler worth?

Not $22 M or even $20 M, but probably still more than $15. So, one screw up will set the market in a bad way so that all the FA QBs get more than they are worth. That's the risk.

[Cugel]

It still sets the market VD, that is the problem because next to Cousins none have the upside and youth of Osweiler.

You beat me to it. Didn't see your post until after I had responded and you said the same thing, basically. :nod:

[TXBRONC]

Apparently, according to this report, the Broncos are just waiting to hear from Peyton Manning. I still have no idea why. Out of "respect"? What kind of nonsense is that? He ain't coming back and they don't want him back. They need to sign Osweiler and move on. Waiting until the FA deadline to try and sign Osweiler would be criminally stupid. What if he becomes a FA and some team makes a ridiculous offer? Then Manning retires. Then what?

Elway isn't stupid Cugel. He knows how much time he has.

[Lancane]

While Osweiler has only a small run sample as a starter compared to most FA quarterbacks, it was against league wide respected opponents and rival teams. Even Cousins can not claim to have been as successful in regards to tough opponents. Add in his youth, lack of tread, that Mayock flat out stated had he stayed in school he'd have been atop the draft class the following year, coaching by not only Manning but by Gase as well and you have a ton of intrigue that all other quarterbacks in the market severly lack. So when the market is set, he could easily be the second highest paid free agent at the position. Now if he sets the market, it will not effect Cousins as it would vice-versa but Coles and others it will effect them.

[Valar Morghulis]

Matt Flynn again, but against more reputable teams and slightly more experience!

I am not the biggest fan of oz. But if he only wants 12 mil. Pay the man.

[Cugel]

Matt Flynn again, but against more reputable teams and slightly more experience!

I am not the biggest fan of oz. But if he only wants 12 mil. Pay the man.

I can't believe they would let Osweiler walk because he wanted $12 M, when the instant FA starts he'll get at least that, and probably significantly more.

Remember it just takes one team to really like a player and decide "that's our guy" to overpay. Why do FAs sometimes get those ridiculous, enormous FA salaries that turn into cap-busters? They get sucked into a bidding war over a certain player they covet and wind up paying too much.

That's why auctions always make the buyers bid against each other - preferably having them live in the same room so they can see their rivals bidding on something they want. The competitive instinct comes into play and teams want to "beat" the other team and grab a player. Losing discipline, they wind up paying too much. Human nature.