Brock Osweiler hopes 2015 play keeps him in Broncos' future plans

[Denver Native (Carol)]

Peering inches above the crowd on the field of Levi's Stadium Sunday night, Brock Osweiler and his 6-foot-8 frame watched from the side of the podium as the Broncos were handed the Lombardi Trophy after defeating the Panthers in Super Bowl 50. He watched as Von Miller was named MVP, and he watched as Peyton Manning told of his plans to celebrate with a lot of beer and a lot of hugs.

Osweiler watched from afar yet again, his season ending much like the way it started — and much the way his previous three seasons had unfolded.

But en route to the Broncos' Super Bowl victory, Osweiler wrote a résumé he's hoping will be enough to warrant an extended stay in Denver.

rest - http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_29506054/brock-osweiler-hopes-2015-play-keeps-him-broncos

[Bronco4ever]

I hope he comes back at a reasonable price. With the way our defense played, it's amost a bigger priority to get them re-signed before Brock. That's not a knock on him but just the reality of how awesome the defense is and the importance of keeping as many pieces together.

[FanInAZ]

I hope he comes back at a reasonable price.

He did OK, good enough to want him back, but not good enough to demand a salary that isn't cap friendly. As long as Oz realizes that, I'm sure he'll sign early so he can get the maximum amount of off season workouts.

[Joel]

I wonder if winning the SB makes Oz more or less willing to take Denvers offer. On the one hand, we should retain most of a championship roster, with far BETTER pass protection and run support. On the other hand, Manning wasn't exactly electric in the playoffs; a part of Oz must be thinking, It should've been ME! :mad:

I know we couldn't have done it without him. Oz was critical to our two biggest regular season games: The OT wins vs. NE* and Cincy, who would've been #1 and #2 see had we lost. Oz is why we didn't limp into the playoffs (IF we got there) as a beat up wildcard stumbling around seeking a place to die and a team to administer the coup de grace. He stood tall with NO protection nor run support, against BRUTAL pass rushes (that brutalized him.)

I'm not saying Oz played like an All Pro, but not TRYING—avoiding risks unless/until FORCED—was precisely his job description. Half his accomplishment was not trying to be Peyton Manning ca. 2006 at the expense of being Curtis Painter instead. The other half was that when he did NEED to make a play, he usually did, most notably (agan) at the end of the Cincy and NE* games.

The one thing I know is that we've GOT to fix our line, WHOEVER our QB is. We were very fortunate to have TWO solid QBs ready to go this year, but we can't afford to sweep up the pieces of our last QB every 2 months and throw another to the wolves. In Brocks place, I'd probably say, "I want $15 million/yr, but will take $10 million if you spend the difference on a starting-quality OT."

[Ravage!!!]

I hope he comes back at a reasonable price. With the way our defense played, it's amost a bigger priority to get them re-signed before Brock. That's not a knock on him but just the reality of how awesome the defense is and the importance of keeping as many pieces together.

I get this, however the '85 Bears didn't go back-to-back. The 2000 Ravens didn't go back until they got a QB. The Bucs, didn't go back.

So although the defense is great, and we won the SUper Bowl based on THEIR play..... the QB is STILL the most important position on the field if we truly want to be contenders on a regular bases.

[Ravage!!!]

He did OK, good enough to want him back, but not good enough to demand a salary that isn't cap friendly. As long as Oz realizes that, I'm sure he'll sign early so he can get the maximum amount of off season workouts.

At the same time, who do you sign to be a "reasonable" cap number that isn't a detriment to this team? There are a LOT of "cap friendly" QBs in the NFL...but they suck.

I don't know what you consider to be a "cap friendly" number...but if you don't think he'll sign for somewhere around 15mill per year, I think your expectations are too much.

Brock showed he had a good understanding of reading defenses, and able to take control of this offense. Kept a cool head, and very good about not turning the ball over. He has a strong arm, and is comfortable with everyone in the locker room after learning from one of the greatest in teh game. Hard to say we can just "sign some vet" and try to ride this defense again....as we've seen other teams fail with that exact plan.

[TXBRONC]

If you guys are thinking that Osweiler is going to ask for money that puts him in the top five or ten I doubt he will. Now some other desperate for a quarterback might but that's risk worth taking. In Denver will give offer him a significant raise and I'm sure it will have some serious incentives for play but I don't see Elway offering him money like Russell Wilson got. He doesn't have that kind of leverage.

[broncofaninfla]

I liked what I saw from Brock, in fact if the receivers wouldn't have had so many drops Kubes would have had a hard time benching Brock. I'm hoping he stays a Bronco.....

[TXBRONC]

I liked what I saw from Brock, in fact if the receivers wouldn't have had so many drops Kubes would have had a hard time benching Brock. I'm hoping he stays a Bronco.....

I truly believe he will.

[BroncoBuckeye73]

Brock will be back and at the right price for us. If we give him a 10 to 12 mil a year deal I would be somewhat shocked if he did not take it. I am sure that he is smart enough to realize his best hope of making more money is to keep playing on the team that just won the Lombardi and improving and playing better and keep this team in the hunt for another trophy year after year.

[Cugel]

Things to consider:

#1 It only takes 1 desperate team to say "we're giving you $18 M" and it would be impossible for the Broncos to match.

I would be angry if someone did that but not really surprised. The Chiefs gave Matt Cassel $15 M and send draft picks to the Patriots for him too.

So, teams do stupid things.

#2 - If nothing crazy happens, I would see the Broncos re-signing Osweiler to around a $12 M a year contract with some incentives - if he makes the pro-bowl, if he starts in the conference championship, if he starts in the SB, if he throws for so many yards and has a high completion percentage.

Peyton earned an extra $4 M this year by starting and playing the majority of snaps in the AFC Championship and SB. He'll earn another $2 M if the Broncos release him and void the last year of his contract.

They could probably re-sign Osweiler if they give him a chance to earn top QB money by performance.

Right now, he only started 8 games and finished 7, winning 5. He played generally well and showed leadership ability, but he didn't get to play in the playoffs or SB. Sometimes there's a big difference between great in the regular season and good in the playoffs - just ask Andy Dalton!

So, logically, teams should be wary of over-paying Osweiler. But, teams are desperate and if you're a GM who is likely to be FIRED if you don't find a good QB, well, what's the downside risk?

If you overpay Osweiler and he's a disappointment, then you get fired, but you were going to be fired anyway for losing games because you didn't have a QB, and now that you're no longer with the team that albatross of a contract is somebody else's problem.

So, why not? Maybe you get lucky and Osweiler proves he's worth $18 M and you get to keep your job. Nothing really to lose. So, unless the owner just says "hell no!" you might roll the dice and take a chance and overpay because you don't have any better options.

For Osweiler, it may come down to "can I really make nearly the same money on this Broncos team with some incentives and play for a SB championship team, or should I go to the LA Rams or 49ers or somebody and probably not even win the division? But, get more money."

That's a tough call. Personally, I'd take a few million less to stay with the Broncos because I've seen what it's like to be in the SB and win, and I'd like to be that QB holding the Lombardi Trophy like Peyton.

But, unless the team gives me the chance to earn at least top 1/2 of the NFL starting QB money (around $18M +) by meeting some incentives, I might look elsewhere. I'm not playing for "peanuts" - (i.e. if looking around the league at other QBs I'm saying 'I'm better than that guy and he's making HOW much????' I'm not going to be happy).

[LTC Pain]

Give Oz a 2-3 year "prove it" deal with incentives. Maybe $10-12M per year. But my fear is like some others that a desperate team (Browns?) will throw a bunch of $$$ at Oz.

[TXBRONC]

Things to consider:

#1 It only takes 1 desperate team to say "we're giving you $18 M" and it would be impossible for the Broncos to match.

I would be angry if someone did that but not really surprised. The Chiefs gave Matt Cassel $15 M and send draft picks to the Patriots for him too.

So, teams do stupid things.

#2 - If nothing crazy happens, I would see the Broncos re-signing Osweiler to around a $12 M a year contract with some incentives - if he makes the pro-bowl, if he starts in the conference championship, if he starts in the SB, if he throws for so many yards and has a high completion percentage.

Peyton earned an extra $4 M this year by starting and playing the majority of snaps in the AFC Championship and SB. He'll earn another $2 M if the Broncos release him and void the last year of his contract.

They could probably re-sign Osweiler if they give him a chance to earn top QB money by performance.

Right now, he only started 8 games and finished 7, winning 5. He played generally well and showed leadership ability, but he didn't get to play in the playoffs or SB. Sometimes there's a big difference between great in the regular season and good in the playoffs - just ask Andy Dalton!

So, logically, teams should be wary of over-paying Osweiler. But, teams are desperate and if you're a GM who is likely to be FIRED if you don't find a good QB, well, what's the downside risk?

If you overpay Osweiler and he's a disappointment, then you get fired, but you were going to be fired anyway for losing games because you didn't have a QB, and now that you're no longer with the team that albatross of a contract is somebody else's problem.

So, why not? Maybe you get lucky and Osweiler proves he's worth $18 M and you get to keep your job. Nothing really to lose. So, unless the owner just says "hell no!" you might roll the dice and take a chance and overpay because you don't have any better options.

For Osweiler, it may come down to "can I really make nearly the same money on this Broncos team with some incentives and play for a SB championship team, or should I go to the LA Rams or 49ers or somebody and probably not even win the division? But, get more money."

That's a tough call. Personally, I'd take a few million less to stay with the Broncos because I've seen what it's like to be in the SB and win, and I'd like to be that QB holding the Lombardi Trophy like Peyton.

But, unless the team gives me the chance to earn at least top 1/2 of the NFL starting QB money (around $18M +) by meeting some incentives, I might look elsewhere. I'm not playing for "peanuts" - (i.e. if looking around the league at other QBs I'm saying 'I'm better than that guy and he's making HOW much????' I'm not going to be happy).

As I said, Osweiler has some leverage not really that much. Manning will have to make his decision before the start of free agency. If he retires I could see a deal getting done pretty quickly there after. It's common sense he won't be playing for peanuts but at the same time he won't get contract as big as Wilson got.

[NightTerror218]

I am hoping way can lock up Miller quick. That way he can focus on team friendly with Oz. There is always the transition tag as well...top 10 salary rather then top 5 with franchise tag. Let's up field offers and match if need be.

[Ravage!!!]

Give Oz a 2-3 year "prove it" deal with incentives. Maybe $10-12M per year. But my fear is like some others that a desperate team (Browns?) will throw a bunch of $$$ at Oz.

Because other teams won't be doing that. No player WANTS this "incentive laden" contracts, as its purely unfair in favor of the NFL owners. Owners love it, and would LOVE to pay everyone on a "commission" basis. But just offering Brock 10 million isn't going to sound great if another team is offering him 14. A Twelve million dollar difference (over 3 years) is hard to make up with the next big contract.

If you don't sign Oz, then who? What other, capable, QB is going to be better AND cheaper?

[NightTerror218]

Because other teams won't be doing that. No player WANTS this "incentive laden" contracts, as its purely unfair in favor of the NFL owners. They love it, and would LOVE to pay everyone on a "commission." But just offering Brock 10 million isn't going to sound great if another team is offering him 14. A Twelve million dollar difference (over 3 years) is hard to make up with the next big contract.

If you don't sign Oz, then who? What other, capable, QB is going to be better AND cheaper?

But how many GM will take a shot on a long term (over 3 years) deal on QB with 6 starts? It's a huge risk that could cripple a team. 2-3 yr deal with good money will be most likely. Even if some team comes in big it will be 2-3 yr. What do you mean incentive laden? Not many contracts have 50% or more guarentees. Elway has front loaded the contracts for ward, talib, and ware to guarentee salary for first few years. I said before $45 million for 3 years with $20 million guarentees is a good contract. Average $15 million a year but depends on guarentees.

[Ravage!!!]

But how many GM will take a shot on a long term (over 3 years) deal on QB with 6 starts? It's a huge risk that could cripple a team. 2-3 yr deal with good money will be most likely. Even if some team comes in big it will be 2-3 yr. What do you mean incentive laden? Not many contracts have 50% or more guarentees. Elway has front loaded the contracts for ward, talib, and ware to guarentee salary for first few years. I said before $45 million for 3 years with $20 million guarentees is a good contract. Average $15 million a year but depends on guarentees.

If this is the contract you are suggesting/believing, then I'm right on board with that. I th ink that is perfect, actually. It was the 'give him 10 million with incentives to make more" contracts that aren't reasonable.

[G_Money]

In 2012 Matt Flynn got a 3 year/ $20.5 million dollar deal with 9 in guarantees and incentives that could have pushed it to $26 million, all based off of a handful of games. I could see Brock getting an offer of about 8 million annually, maybe 10. The Flynn thing fell flat immediately, which makes other teams nervous about paying big bucks for QBs who didn't have to do much on stacked teams.

Kubiak has also traded for somebody else's backup QB to be his long-term starter before. Hell, Kubes could just sign Chase Daniel if Oz wants too much or let Siemian do it with a vet backup on hand for downside relief. The threat of being able to put just about anyone else at the helm is real in the case. "I just need a game manager, Oz, so until you prove you're more than that that's all I'll be paying for. Manning's corpse won us a superbowl by being just slightly more effective than a cardboard cutout. Would you like to win one next time, or do you want to go play for the Rams or the Browns who haven't done anything interesting since before you hit puberty?"

I expect Brock to be back, and I don't think that precludes us from taking a QB somewhere in this draft either. Somebody like Kevin Hogan seems right up our alley if he's there late. Take him in the 5th, turn him into Brady. ;)

And until then, give Brock his shot with with what we've got, as long as he understands he's not gonna break the bank on this shorter deal - but could on the next one if he nails his chance.

[G_Money]

If this is the contract you are suggesting/believing, then I'm right on board with that. I th ink that is perfect, actually. It was the 'give him 10 million with incentives to make more" contracts that aren't reasonable.

Like I said, Matt Flynn was in this sort of predicament and came out with a 3/20 deal with those dreaded incentives. Inflation bumps that to 10 mil or so a season, but I would be surprised if we were more than 3/35 into Ozweiler. We'll see though.

[Ravage!!!]

******* hell... did you just suggest Chase Daniels???????? FRaking christ........

[G_Money]

******* hell... did you just suggest Chase Daniels???????? FRaking christ........

LOL I didn't suggest him so much as suggest that Kubes could use a guy like that as a bargaining chip. Oz's agent can say, "we'll go somewhere else unless you pay us huge sums" while Kubiak can come back with, "Go for it - any QB would be thrilled to play here, and if I can get him a better OL than you'll have if I pay you what you want then we're better off."

Then Brock drops his asking price and we're good. ;)

[NightTerror218]

In 2012 Matt Flynn got a 3 year/ $20.5 million dollar deal with 9 in guarantees and incentives that could have pushed it to $26 million, all based off of a handful of games. I could see Brock getting an offer of about 8 million annually, maybe 10. The Flynn thing fell flat immediately, which makes other teams nervous about paying big bucks for QBs who didn't have to do much on stacked teams.

Kubiak has also traded for somebody else's backup QB to be his long-term starter before. Hell, Kubes could just sign Chase Daniel if Oz wants too much or let Siemian do it with a vet backup on hand for downside relief. The threat of being able to put just about anyone else at the helm is real in the case. "I just need a game manager, Oz, so until you prove you're more than that that's all I'll be paying for. Manning's corpse won us a superbowl by being just slightly more effective than a cardboard cutout. Would you like to win one next time, or do you want to go play for the Rams or the Browns who haven't done anything interesting since before you hit puberty?"

I expect Brock to be back, and I don't think that precludes us from taking a QB somewhere in this draft either. Somebody like Kevin Hogan seems right up our alley if he's there late. Take him in the 5th, turn him into Brady. ;)

And until then, give Brock his shot with with what we've got, as long as he understands he's not gonna break the bank on this shorter deal - but could on the next one if he nails his chance.

I will state this almost as a fact. Elway will not let a player like Chase Daniels or casey Keenum be the starting QB. Elway know how important the position is and that is why he always brings in the top QBS for work outside every year. There is a reason he said he'll no the tebow and went after Manning.

The worst Elway would do is draft a early round QB with intention to start.

Other QBS may come in the fight for a back up position. But retreads and has been solid won't be starting for Broncos unless a starter goes down. Elway knows the value of the position. Kubiak does not have personal control.

[Ravage!!!]

LOL I didn't suggest him so much as suggest that Kubes could use a guy like that as a bargaining chip. Oz's agent can say, "we'll go somewhere else unless you pay us huge sums" while Kubiak can come back with, "Go for it - any QB would be thrilled to play here, and if I can get him a better OL than you'll have if I pay you what you want then we're better off."

Then Brock drops his asking price and we're good. ;)

hah.. the agent would :lol:...and Brock would sign for the Jets, and then we'd be stuck, signing Keenum because he used to work with Kubiak. Gag

[TXBRONC]

Because other teams won't be doing that. No player WANTS this "incentive laden" contracts, as its purely unfair in favor of the NFL owners. Owners love it, and would LOVE to pay everyone on a "commission" basis. But just offering Brock 10 million isn't going to sound great if another team is offering him 14. A Twelve million dollar difference (over 3 years) is hard to make up with the next big contract.

If you don't sign Oz, then who? What other, capable, QB is going to be better AND cheaper?

It won't be an incentive based contract. Elway knows he going to make a fair offer one that isn't top tier. I don't think players mind incentives based on performance as long as they are reasonable.

[Joel]

Kubiak has also traded for somebody else's backup QB to be his long-term starter before.
Kubiak didn't make that trade, McNair did: The year Kubiak won Houstons first playoff game, he was already trying like Hell to upgrade Schaub before he got BOTH of them fired. McNair wouldn't let him use anything better than a 5th rounder on a QB, but that 5th round rookie started and won the franchises first playoff game, and he's STILL the best QB on their roster 4 years later. But once Schaub was healthy he regained his job, and Kubiak had to hold his breath hoping no one drafted the kid he liked from the University of Houston, because McNair wouldn't even let him spend a FINAL round pick on him.

Kubiak will get "his" guy sooner or later, one way or the other, whether Oz takes a reasonable offer or shoots for the moon elsewhere. And with Wades D plus Dennisons line, Kubiaks guy will win us MANY games: Since he won a playoff game with a 5th round rookie TJ Yates and turned a rookie UDFA into a good enough QB to get a starting job ANYWHERE (even Los Angeles) imagine what he can do when his GM lets him pick a QB before the 5th round.

Odds are our guy going forward will be Oz, and the odds are against him, but no more than for any new QB (and less so than many.) Again, if anyone can make him an All Pro, it's Kubiak: He's never had a starting QB who DIDN'T make at least one Pro Bowl. Anyone think that was because Plummer, Schaub or Griese were elite?

[Ravage!!!]

It won't be an incentive based contract. Elway knows he going to make a fair offer one that isn't top tier. I don't think players mind incentives based on performance as long as they are reasonable.

Agreed to this. I don't think you can try to sign an UFA with a "Trial contract" (as a few have mentioned) simply by offering a big raise and "Incentives" to make it a BIG contract. "Sign him for 10 and put a bunch of incentives in there" ..... sigh.

But if the guaranteed contract and money is fair, with incentives that can be reached for bonues.... sure. However, we have to understand that many of those "reachable" incentives, count against our cap. So it's not like it's necessarily a cap saver to offer them. Unless we offer bonuses to "unlikely reached" incentives, which that cap money counts against the following year's cap. But then, why would a player say "oh yeah, that's part of my salary" on "unlikely reached" bonuses?

[Ravage!!!]

:lol:

[Ravage!!!]

Odds are our guy going forward will be Oz, and the odds are against him, but no more than for any new QB (and less so than many.) Again, if anyone can make him an All Pro, it's Kubiak: He's never had a starting QB who DIDN'T make at least one Pro Bowl. Anyone think that was because Plummer, Schaub or Griese were elite?

Weird tht Shanahan was coaching 2 of those 3, and then add in Cutler and RGIII with Shanahan as well. Who else does Kube's have? I know you are a big believer, but it seems you try to boost too much that it takes away from the validity.

[FanInAZ]

At the same time, who do you sign to be a "reasonable" cap number that isn't a detriment to this team? There are a LOT of "cap friendly" QBs in the NFL...but they suck.

I don't know what you consider to be a "cap friendly" number...but if you don't think he'll sign for somewhere around 15mill per year, I think your expectations are too much.

Brock showed he had a good understanding of reading defenses, and able to take control of this offense. Kept a cool head, and very good about not turning the ball over. He has a strong arm, and is comfortable with everyone in the locker room after learning from one of the greatest in teh game. Hard to say we can just "sign some vet" and try to ride this defense again....as we've seen other teams fail with that exact plan.

Oz isn't your typical "cap friendly" QB, who are normally run out of his previous town do to poor job performance. He's spent 4 years sitting behind a HoFer, now he just needs to develop more of the skills he's been shown.

[NightTerror218]

Oz isn't your typical "cap friendly" QB, who are normally run out of his previous town do to poor job performance. He's spent 4 years sitting behind a HoFer, now he just needs to develop more of the skills he's been shown.

He has learned how to be a good and doing the film study. Time to put it to use. One thing I liked was how he did not make dumb mistakes passing or confused by defenses.

[Joel]

Weird tht Shanahan was coaching 2 of those 3, and then add in Cutler and RGIII with Shanahan as well. Who else does Kube's have? I know you are a big believer, but it seems you try to boost too much that it takes away from the validity.
Do Cutler and RGIII help or hurt Shannys case? Cutler only started because Plummer fell off a cliff without Kubiak, and Shanny playing RGIII hurt may have ended BOTH their careers (although I'd still bet Snyder deserves most blame in both cases.) I concede their overlapping fingerprints are hard to separate, but consider:

Shanny's had 2 winning seasons in 7 tries post-Kubiak, with an 0-1 playoff record
Kubiak's had 4 winning seasons in 9 tries post-Shanahan, with a 5-2 playoff record, including a World Championship.

[Cugel]

In 2012 Matt Flynn got a 3 year/ $20.5 million dollar deal with 9 in guarantees and incentives that could have pushed it to $26 million, all based off of a handful of games. I could see Brock getting an offer of about 8 million annually, maybe 10. The Flynn thing fell flat immediately, which makes other teams nervous about paying big bucks for QBs who didn't have to do much on stacked teams.

Kubiak has also traded for somebody else's backup QB to be his long-term starter before. Hell, Kubes could just sign Chase Daniel if Oz wants too much or let Siemian do it with a vet backup on hand for downside relief. The threat of being able to put just about anyone else at the helm is real in the case. "I just need a game manager, Oz, so until you prove you're more than that that's all I'll be paying for. Manning's corpse won us a superbowl by being just slightly more effective than a cardboard cutout. Would you like to win one next time, or do you want to go play for the Rams or the Browns who haven't done anything interesting since before you hit puberty?"

I expect Brock to be back, and I don't think that precludes us from taking a QB somewhere in this draft either. Somebody like Kevin Hogan seems right up our alley if he's there late. Take him in the 5th, turn him into Brady. ;)

And until then, give Brock his shot with with what we've got, as long as he understands he's not gonna break the bank on this shorter deal - but could on the next one if he nails his chance.

No 5th round QB is going to "turn into Tom Brady". Brady in the 6th round happens maybe once every 30 years and chances of the Broncos landing a Hall of Fame QB this year aren't worth mentioning.

The Broncos have to re-sign Osweiler because there is no credible alternative.

I suppose they could conclude that the price is too high, but it would have to be some insane team coming in and offering $18 M a year guaranteed or something.

The Broncos will not have to meet any offer, because Brock would prefer to stay here. They will have to be competitive. That means that the total package must approach but not equal what some other team is offering.

And it can with incentives. Whether incentive clauses are attractive depends on the incentive and the player.

Peyton Manning for instance got $4 M in incentives over his $15 base salary this season: $2 M for starting and playing the majority of snaps in the AFC Championship Game, and $2 M for the SB. Those incentives were not "likely to be earned" so they didn't count against the cap. He's getting another $2 M when the Broncos terminate his contract rights.

Brock Osweiler could be given similar incentives together with a large signing bonus, that when averaged over the lifetime of a 4 or 5 year contract would mean about a $12 M cap hit. That would be reasonable. What would his argument against that be? "I plan on sucking so I want guaranteed money?" They could even guarantee his contract against injury for the first 2 seasons.

The reality is that if the Broncos are able to re-sign Osweiler they will NOT give up on him unless he sucks pretty bad for 2 full seasons. Just ask yourself how long they stuck with Michael Schofield when it was obvious to all the fans and commentators that he sucked and needed to be replaced.

Kubiak and Elway are not shy about taking unpopular decisions, as Elway proved by getting rid of Tim Tebow. The truth is that Elway was going to get rid of Tebow even if he didn't get Peyton Manning. The Tebowite morons would have howled for blood, but that wouldn't have stopped him from doing what he thought was in the long term best interest.

He's going to give Brock every chance to succeed. If he struggles in his first full year starting, they will try and coach him up and get him to play better.

And $10-12 M a year is about what to expect. Even desperate teams should be leery of throwing huge money at a guy who looked good in 7 games. That's not a huge sample size.

The same considerations that mitigate against the Broncos offering big money to Osweiler also applies to other teams.

The ONE wild-card in all this is a team like the Raiders who have something like $70 M in cap space and have a salary floor (NFL rules dictate they must spend 89% of the cap during the 2014-16 period. If they don't make it, they have to turn over the unspent money to the NFLPA in 2017, without gaining any benefit).

Not that the Raiders would replace Derek Carr, but the Jaguars have $74 M in cap room, the Bears and 49ers have $50 M, and the Browns have $33 M.

These Teams without a QB could easily afford to outbid the Broncos. It's just that nobody wants to throw away money and about $10-12 M with some incentives that could raise that by a significant amount based on performance that Brock would earn if he is reasonably good makes sense to everyone. Offering more than about $15 M a year guaranteed is a pretty big risk. Matt Cassel in 2009 got $30 M guaranteed from the Chiefs, but he'd played the entire previous season for the Patriots and won 11. And that didn't work out great for the Chiefs either.

There are not a lot of examples of teams taking a wild risk on giving a huge contract to an unproven QB that worked out great for that team.

[Davii]

No 5th round QB is going to "turn into Tom Brady". Brady in the 6th round happens maybe once every 30 years and chances of the Broncos landing a Hall of Fame QB this year aren't worth mentioning.

The Broncos have to re-sign Osweiler because there is no credible alternative.

I suppose they could conclude that the price is too high, but it would have to be some insane team coming in and offering $18 M a year guaranteed or something.

The Broncos will not have to meet any offer, because Brock would prefer to stay here. They will have to be competitive. That means that the total package must approach but not equal what some other team is offering.

And it can with incentives. Whether incentive clauses are attractive depends on the incentive and the player.

Peyton Manning for instance got $4 M in incentives over his $15 base salary this season: $2 M for starting and playing the majority of snaps in the AFC Championship Game, and $2 M for the SB. Those incentives were not "likely to be earned" so they didn't count against the cap. He's getting another $2 M when the Broncos terminate his contract rights.

Brock Osweiler could be given similar incentives together with a large signing bonus, that when averaged over the lifetime of a 4 or 5 year contract would mean about a $12 M cap hit. That would be reasonable. What would his argument against that be? "I plan on sucking so I want guaranteed money?" They could even guarantee his contract against injury for the first 2 seasons.

The reality is that if the Broncos are able to re-sign Osweiler they will NOT give up on him unless he sucks pretty bad for 2 full seasons. Just ask yourself how long they stuck with Michael Schofield when it was obvious to all the fans and commentators that he sucked and needed to be replaced.

Kubiak and Elway are not shy about taking unpopular decisions, as Elway proved by getting rid of Tim Tebow. The truth is that Elway was going to get rid of Tebow even if he didn't get Peyton Manning. The Tebowite morons would have howled for blood, but that wouldn't have stopped him from doing what he thought was in the long term best interest.

He's going to give Brock every chance to succeed. If he struggles in his first full year starting, they will try and coach him up and get him to play better.

And $10-12 M a year is about what to expect. Even desperate teams should be leery of throwing huge money at a guy who looked good in 7 games. That's not a huge sample size.

The same considerations that mitigate against the Broncos offering big money to Osweiler also applies to other teams.

The ONE wild-card in all this is a team like the Raiders who have something like $70 M in cap space and have a salary floor (NFL rules dictate they must spend 89% of the cap during the 2014-16 period. If they don't make it, they have to turn over the unspent money to the NFLPA in 2017, without gaining any benefit).

Not that the Raiders would replace Derek Carr, but the Jaguars have $74 M in cap room, the Bears and 49ers have $50 M, and the Browns have $33 M.

These Teams without a QB could easily afford to outbid the Broncos. It's just that nobody wants to throw away money and about $10-12 M with some incentives that could raise that by a significant amount based on performance that Brock would earn if he is reasonably good makes sense to everyone. Offering more than about $15 M a year guaranteed is a pretty big risk. Matt Cassel in 2009 got $30 M guaranteed from the Chiefs, but he'd played the entire previous season for the Patriots and won 11. And that didn't work out great for the Chiefs either.

There are not a lot of examples of teams taking a wild risk on giving a huge contract to an unproven QB that worked out great for that team.

Manning's incentive bonus for AFCC and NFLC count against this coming year's salary cap.

[Cugel]

"He's too much of an unproven commodity to make a long-term commitment," Joel Corry, a former agent and current salary-cap expert for CBS Sports, said of Osweiler. "You really want a short-term, two-, three-year deal and the quarterback market is such that you either get paid a lot or you don't really get paid. The only kind of in-between deal right now is Nick Foles, which turned out to be a lousy deal for St. Louis, and that's a guy that actually had a Pro Bowl year. The base value of that deal is $24.5 million of two years. You've got incentives and escalators that he's never going to earn, where the max value would be $30 million over two years. I wouldn't want to go that high with Osweiler. You have to draft a quarterback or sign some vet to push him."

That's basically the truth. According to the reports from Troy Renk the Broncos Insider the Broncos offered a contract with about $10 M a year and Osweiler wants $12 M. So the two sides are apart and awaiting FA.

I think this is criminally stupid if the Broncos don't get a deal done. There's no way Osweiler isn't getting more than $10 M. He's also not getting something ridiculous, if the above quote is to be believed, around $22-24 M guaranteed over a 2 year deal is about right. He's not going to get much more, and he's certainly not going to get less than $20 M guaranteed.

So, I don't see the reason why they are hesitating to get this done.

You are defending SB champions, so the obvious thing to say is: "DON'T MAKE ANY CHANGES!" (except for the OL where they are getting Clady and Sambrailo back and starting Max Garcia next year).

[BroncoJoe]

Its been pretty well reported they're waiting for PFM to decide what he is doing before finalizing any deal with Brock. It's not stupid.

[chazoe60]

Klis said yesterday on the Fan that it's 80-90% that we resign Brock. Said when it comes to the deal that they'll get in done in a day. I think most of this is just aesthetics in deference to Peyton.

[Ravage!!!]

Do Cutler and RGIII help or hurt Shannys case? Cutler only started because Plummer fell off a cliff without Kubiak, and Shanny playing RGIII hurt may have ended BOTH their careers (although I'd still bet Snyder deserves most blame in both cases.) I concede their overlapping fingerprints are hard to separate, but consider:

Shanny's had 2 winning seasons in 7 tries post-Kubiak, with an 0-1 playoff record
Kubiak's had 4 winning seasons in 9 tries post-Shanahan, with a 5-2 playoff record, including a World Championship.

Going by your logic, Kubiak doesn't deserve any credit as it was Dennison that was the OC for our World Champion Broncos.

But you keep fighting the fight, bro. Keep kneeling, Kubiak will turn around and give you a Manning any moment now.

[TXBRONC]

Klis said yesterday on the Fan that it's 80-90% that we resign Brock. Said when it comes to the deal that they'll get in done in a day. I think most of this is just aesthetics in deference to Peyton.

When does free agency start? I would think Elway would want to know Manning's decision sometime before that date.

[Cugel]

Quote Originally Posted by chazoe60 View Post
Klis said yesterday on the Fan that it's 80-90% that we resign Brock. Said when it comes to the deal that they'll get in done in a day. I think most of this is just aesthetics in deference to Peyton.


Apparently Brock wants an average of around $12 M and the Broncos are offering around $10 M per year. They will need to bridge that gap, because once FA starts, there are a few scenarios which wind up with Brock getting over $15 M a year from the Rams or somebody. And that would be really, really bad.

You have a SB team. Don't screw it up by changing QBs now. Just keep everybody you've got. Most years you can't justify just re-signing everybody - you didn't win the SB did you? But this year it's absolutely true. Outside Vernon Davis and a few OL there's no players on this team they couldn't use coming back.

Hell, they could even use Peyton Manning back if he wanted to play for about $5 M a year or something, and accept a backup role, which he won't do.

If the OL is better next year there's no reason they couldn't repeat.

[TXBRONC]

Apparently Brock wants an average of around $12 M and the Broncos are offering around $10 M per year. They will need to bridge that gap, because once FA starts, there are a few scenarios which wind up with Brock getting over $15 M a year from the Rams or somebody. And that would be really, really bad.

You have a SB team. Don't screw it up by changing QBs now. Just keep everybody you've got. Most years you can't justify just re-signing everybody - you didn't win the SB did you? But this year it's absolutely true. Outside Vernon Davis and a few OL there's no players on this team they couldn't use coming back.

Hell, they could even use Peyton Manning back if he wanted to play for about $5 M a year or something, and accept a backup role, which he won't do.

If the OL is better next year there's no reason they couldn't repeat.

A difference $2 million isn't a huge gap to bridge the problem this is on hold until Manning decides. I'm sure they don't go with an someone other than Osweiler.

As far Manning returning as the back up quarterback that would never happen for many reasons.

I've been kicking around in my head about Denver repeating. I think it's possible if they can keep the defense in tact and fix the offensive line, an upgrade at kick returner, and upgrade running back/depth.

[NightTerror218]

Apparently Brock wants an average of around $12 M and the Broncos are offering around $10 M per year. They will need to bridge that gap, because once FA starts, there are a few scenarios which wind up with Brock getting over $15 M a year from the Rams or somebody. And that would be really, really bad.

You have a SB team. Don't screw it up by changing QBs now. Just keep everybody you've got. Most years you can't justify just re-signing everybody - you didn't win the SB did you? But this year it's absolutely true. Outside Vernon Davis and a few OL there's no players on this team they couldn't use coming back.

Hell, they could even use Peyton Manning back if he wanted to play for about $5 M a year or something, and accept a backup role, which he won't do.

If the OL is better next year there's no reason they couldn't repeat.

So where did you get these numbers from? How do you know what Brock wants and what broncos are thinking?

Link to anything?

[TXBRONC]

So where did you get these numbers from? How do you know what Brock wants and what broncos are thinking?

Link to anything?

Someone else mentioned that Osweiler was looking for about $12 million per. It may be in this thread but, I admit to lazy to look.

[HORSEPOWER 56]

I'd just like Peyton to make a decision. We're being patient out of respect, but he needs to return that respect and make his decision with enough time to negotiate with Oz. waiting until FA starts and forcing our hand to release him the night before is unacceptable. It puts Elway in a bad position to effectively negotiate before every team needing a QB with tons of cap space gets a chance to overpay for him. I hate to say it, but if Peyton hasn't made his decision by the end of the month, I'd start negotiating with Oz and release Peyton. I honestly don't believe for a second that Elway will keep Peyton if he decides not to retire. Elway is all class and wouldn't dream of releasing Peyton right after the Super Bowl, but I think the decision was made weeks, if not months ago. Time to move on.

[NightTerror218]

Someone else mentioned that Osweiler was looking for about $12 million per. It may be in this thread but, I admit to lazy to look.

What about the Broncos only wanting to do $10M?

[TXBRONC]

What about the Broncos only wanting to do $10M?

I don't know if Elway's number is immovable but $2 million doesn't seem to be a huge gap to bridge.

[Cugel]

So where did you get these numbers from? How do you know what Brock wants and what broncos are thinking?

Link to anything?

I believe Troy Renk, the Broncos Insider mentioned this on the Drive on 104.3 The Fan, but it's been accredited to multiple sources so I don't know where they're hearing this stuff. Chad Brown mentioned something similar yesterday and former NFL GM Bill Polian said something similar as well (not that he knows the inside details, he was just giving his opinion).

Of course, it's all speculation because neither Elway nor Osweiler's agent are talking to the media. What happens is that other teams call the agent just to chat and word gets around how the negotiation is going. "We're still $2 M apart and haven't talked with them in a couple of weeks now." Etc.

I'm not saying it won't get done. It's inconceivable to me Elway could be so stupid he lets Osweiler get away after they developed him for 4 years. None of the potential replacements look to be an improvement so he has every incentive to keep Osweiler. The problem comes in if they don't get a deal done by the start of FA, some cap rich team like the Rams might just swoop in and make Osweiler a monster offer the Broncos can't match - like $17 or $18 M a year or something.

Yes, that would be absurd. But, absurd things happen sometimes in NFL FA. Just ask Ndamukong Suh. Is he worthy of a $114,000,000 contract? No. Did he get it? Yes.:confused:

[TXBRONC]

I believe Troy Renk, the Broncos Insider mentioned this on the Drive on 104.3 The Fan, but it's been accredited to multiple sources so I don't know where they're hearing this stuff. Chad Brown mentioned something similar yesterday and former NFL GM Bill Polian said something similar as well (not that he knows the inside details, he was just giving his opinion).

Of course, it's all speculation because neither Elway nor Osweiler's agent are talking to the media. What happens is that other teams call the agent just to chat and word gets around how the negotiation is going. "We're still $2 M apart and haven't talked with them in a couple of weeks now." Etc.

I'm not saying it won't get done. It's inconceivable to me Elway could be so stupid he lets Osweiler get away after they developed him for 4 years. None of the potential replacements look to be an improvement so he has every incentive to keep Osweiler. The problem comes in if they don't get a deal done by the start of FA, some cap rich team like the Rams might just swoop in and make Osweiler a monster offer the Broncos can't match - like $17 or $18 M a year or something.

Yes, that would be absurd. But, absurd things happen sometimes in NFL FA. Just ask Ndamukong Suh. Is he worthy of a $114,000,000 contract? No. Did he get it? Yes.:confused:

That is Elway isn't stupid just like when there were plenty of people on this board that said Denver needed to give the Browns whatever they wanted for Joe Thomas. When he didn't people said he was stupid and wrote the Broncos off. He knows what he's doing.

[Timmy!]

You guys worry way too much. Oz is our qb. Trust me. #nostratimmy

[TXBRONC]

You guys worry way too much. Oz is our qb. Trust me. #nostratimmy

Now I am worried.