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View Full Version : NFL Scoring Statistics Favor The Broncos!



Cugel
02-05-2016, 02:49 PM
The following is not proof that the Broncos will win the SB, but it is food for thought. Defense wins championships. Record setting offense? Not so much:

Know what the top 5 all time scoring offenses in NFL history have in common? None ever won a SB.

Out of the top 10 scoring offenses in NFL history 1 (1999 Rams) won the SB.

The Panthers scored 500 points. Fifteen teams before them scored 500 points or more in a season in the history of the NFL. Four of those teams won SBs and 11 failed.

Only teams to score 500 or more points and win the SB prior to 2000? '94 49ers, '98 Broncos, '99 Rams. Prior to 2000 scoring 500 or more points was such an accomplishment that 3 out of the 4 teams that did it won the SB (exception was the '98 Vikings).

But, in the 2000's scoring exploded after the NFL changed the rules to protect the QB and defenseless receiver and instituted the 5-yard limitation on blocking the receiver.

Scoring exploded. Eleven teams teams have scored 500 or more points in a season since the 2000 season, but only 1 of them has won the SB - the 2009 Saints.

Scoring the most points in NFL history, in order:

#1 - 2013 Broncos
#2 - 2007 Pats - Anointed prior to the game as the "greatest team of all time" after they won 16 games in the regular season, but they lost in SB to the Giants
#3 - 2011 Packers - lost in the playoffs to the Giants
#4 - 2012 Patriots - lost AFC Championship game to Ravens.
#5 - 1998 Vikings - had Randy Moss & Chris Carter, but lost the NFC Championship game to the Falcons.
#6 - 2011 Saints - lost in the divisional round.
#7 - 2000 Rams - lost in the divisional round.
#8 - 1999 Rams - Beat Titans in the SB.
#9 - 2004 Colts - Peyton Manning's best season prior to 2013 - lost to the Patriots in the playoffs.
#10 - 2010 Patriots - wild card, lost divisional playoff.
#11 - 2011 Patriots - went 16-2 that season but lost SB to the Giants.
#12 - 2009 Saints - Beat Peyton Manning & the Colts in the SB.
#13 - 1994 49ers - Beat the Chargers in the SB.
#14 - 2001 Rams - lost in the divisional playoffs.
#15 - 1998 Broncos - Beat the Falcons in the SB.

#16 - 2015 Panthers ????

The Broncos might still lose of course, but history does not favor record setting offenses in the SB. One reason why might be that the refs "let them play" a bit more in the SB because the NFL does not want the refs deciding a SB game with a penalty. So, only rather flagrant penalties get called. A "no-call" is always less controversial than a penalty even on a flagrant foul.

Expect that blatant holding of Broncos defenders won't be called. Expect that defenders will get away with some pass-interference especially in tight coverage over the middle. That should favor the Broncos defense.

Yashahla17
02-05-2016, 02:59 PM
Blah the game must be played on the field. I dont buy into all the numbers you can find online.

Joel
02-05-2016, 04:05 PM
The difference is the cap forced most #1 offenses to do it by skimping on D (except the '94 '9ers, because the cap was brand new and still had gaping loopholes.) THIS #1 O has long had a GREAT D only improved by guys like Allen: They're 7th in rushing yds/att and 2nd in passing yds/att (or a better pass D than ANYONE BUT US, if you prefer.) That elite D did a lot to create a "#1" SCORING offense" that's only 10th in rushing and passing average, but started its average drive on its own 31.

People keep saying their secondary's soft, that Norman was a nobody till now and the rest are midseason FA castoffs, but: Soft secondarys don't lead the NFL in Ints, not even with LBs snatching 8 of them. It doesn't take much to stop OUR run-surge-challenged and protection-incapable offense anyway, but it's FACING much anyway.

BroncoJoe
02-05-2016, 06:06 PM
Joel just got a hardon because of all the stats.

Cugel
02-05-2016, 06:32 PM
There's a reason why these statistics happen. It's not nothing.

People look at all the highlights and think "the Broncos are going to get smoked! I'm predicting 31-10 Carolina." But, in the second half of the Seahawks game they were shut down. Against Arizona, Carson Palmer just tried to force the ball into coverages and got picked off a lot. Peyton isn't going to do that. He's accepted his role where he just has to play effective football. It doesn't all depend on him having a great game. He has to be efficient and the defense has to be great.

Teams score a bunch more, but the problem is that such teams are used to scoring a ton of points and getting up by multiple scores. Then they get into a low scoring defensive battle and it's just not their kind of game. We've seen it again and again in SBs over the last 20 years. The 2000 and 2001 Rams were still the Greatest Show on Turf but they didn't win. The 2004 Colts, the 2010, 2011, and 2012 Patriots, the 2011 Packers and Saints, all of them were used to scoring 30 points a game.

If the Broncos can prevent a blowout in the first half it's going to become more and more obvious which team is most used to perseverance in a dog fight.

"In any tough fight there comes a time when either side is ready to retreat if their opponent makes a bold attack." This game has to come down to mental toughness.

TXBRONC
02-05-2016, 06:39 PM
I don't care what the pundits say.

wayninja
02-05-2016, 09:55 PM
What I learned from this thread: The Pats must hate the Giants way more than us.

TXBRONC
02-06-2016, 10:45 AM
What I learned from this thread: The Pats must hate the Giants way more than us.

That is a very logical conclusion but ****Pastie fans are not logical.

GEM
02-06-2016, 10:53 AM
I heard a stat the other day...when a team hangs over 40 on a team, the next week the w-l is 5-34.

Davii
02-06-2016, 11:11 AM
Blah the game must be played on the field. I dont buy into all the numbers you can find online.

How about 3 cone drill times?

Joel
02-06-2016, 12:58 PM
There's a reason why these statistics happen. It's not nothing.
Of course it's not, but that's why we must actually LOOK at what that is to know if it applies in future. Most of what made the cited stats DOESN'T apply here:

We're not playing some '99 Rams or '06 Colts team with overwhelming offense but NO D. Carolinas D is SO good it made its decent offense LOOK elite.


People look at all the highlights and think "the Broncos are going to get smoked! I'm predicting 31-10 Carolina." But, in the second half of the Seahawks game they were shut down. Against Arizona, Carson Palmer just tried to force the ball into coverages and got picked off a lot. Peyton isn't going to do that. He's accepted his role where he just has to play effective football. It doesn't all depend on him having a great game. He has to be efficient and the defense has to be great.
In the second half of the Seahawks game THEY LED 31-0 so just coasted, resting starters for the NFCCG while playing Prevent: And it WORKED. Tomorrow, they won't be resting anyone for the postseason; only way backups play is after it's decided. Against Arizona, Carolinas big early lead "forced" Palmer to force balls into coverage that led the NFL in Ints; if we can't run, and they get a big early lead again, the situation will force Mannings hand, too, and our protection's far worse.


Teams score a bunch more, but the problem is that such teams are used to scoring a ton of points and getting up by multiple scores. Then they get into a low scoring defensive battle and it's just not their kind of game. We've seen it again and again in SBs over the last 20 years. The 2000 and 2001 Rams were still the Greatest Show on Turf but they didn't win. The 2004 Colts, the 2010, 2011, and 2012 Patriots, the 2011 Packers and Saints, all of them were used to scoring 30 points a game.
Yeah: Except low scoring defensive battles have been EXACTLY Carolinas kind of game since Rivera ARRIVED—they've just gotten so GOOD at that game they force tons of turnovers and end up with big leads anyway. Seriously, stop comparing them to the defenseless Greatest Show on Turf and Mannings defenseless Colts teams: Carolians D is ranked HIGHER in yds/att than its "#1 offense."


If the Broncos can prevent a blowout in the first half it's going to become more and more obvious which team is most used to perseverance in a dog fight.

"In any tough fight there comes a time when either side is ready to retreat if their opponent makes a bold attack." This game has to come down to mental toughness.
Very possibly, but not because Carolina can't play D or win a street fight: That's how they GOT here. If we weather the offensive AND defensive storm they may crack because so few teams have, but getting through their D's a bigger challenge than slowing their O (though Cam's for real: I just don't how real Ginn, Stewart et al. are.)

Joel
02-06-2016, 01:02 PM
Stop pretending Carolina's the '99 Rams or Mannings Colts, 'cause they ain't. If Warner, Faulk and Co. had a D like Carolinas they'd have been a dynasty that whipped NE* by 20 even WITH the Cheats taping their practices. This isn't a great offense that finally found a good enough D: It's a great D that finally made its offense very good. If there's a lesson from their lone loss and 17 wins, it's that the "#1 offense" is far less overwhelming when its D doesn't give it lots of short fields.

Yashahla17
02-06-2016, 01:13 PM
How about 3 cone drill times?

What are you talking about?