The Ultimate 50

[Dreadnought]

This is kind of cool, and kind of reminiscent of a project I did a couple of years back. CBS Sports is using Strat-O-Matic to run a single elimination tournament of the 49 past SB Champions. So far '97 Denver made it to round two, while the underrated and powerful '98 squad has made it to the sweet 16.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25461397/ultimate-50-round-1-whos-the-best-super-bowl-champion-ever

A couple of years ago I used the same game engine to run a 128 game elimination tournament. I might have to revisit that now that more seasons are available

http://www.broncosforums.com/forums/showthread.php/555173-Greatest-Team-Tourney

[Dapper Dan]

Here's the latest results. 1998 Broncos just beat the 1999 Rams to move on to the elite 8.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25462922/ultimate-50-round-of-16-which-eight-super-bowl-winners-move-on

I do find it a little odd that the 1996 Packers beat the 2006 Colts (31-17), after the Colts beat the 1997 Broncos(41-20). When in real life the 1997 Broncos basically beat the 1996 Packers.

[Joel]

Here's the latest results. 1998 Broncos just beat the 1999 Rams to move on to the elite 8.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25462922/ultimate-50-round-of-16-which-eight-super-bowl-winners-move-on

I do find it a little odd that the 1996 Packers beat the 2006 Colts (31-17), after the Colts beat the 1997 Broncos(41-20). When in real life the 1997 Broncos basically beat the 1996 Packers.
There's a few oddities at first glance, like the '92 Cowboys (possibly the best overall of their 8 SB teams) barely beating the '12 Ravens 31-27. It's hard to believe Baltimore could throw 2 Ints and STILL score 27 pts on THAT D. Or the '79 Steelers, last of the dynasty, losing to one of Elis overachievers 34-28. Had to chuckle at the '95 Cowboys scoring the same amount as the ACTUAL Cowboys on the '70 Colts, but this time winning by a FG instead of losing by one.

The '96 Pack beating a team that beat a team that ACTUALLY beat the '97 Pack isn't that big a stretch though, because the '96 Pack was more dominant and probably better team. The '97 squad didn't have Edgar Bennett (who wasn't elite, but better than Dorsey) or Sean Jones, both key players. What I find really odd is that they gave the '97 Broncos a first round bye, while the '98 Broncos played. Wouldn't most people agree our '98 team was better, even without Zimmerman?

[Northman]

Because its still random.

You run that matchup again the Colts probably win more times than not. There is a few head scratchers in there but i always was intrigued by it even when Dread was running it.

[Dreadnought]

Because its still random.

You run that matchup again the Colts probably win more times than not. There is a few head scratchers in there but i always was intrigued by it even when Dread was running it.

I thought it was funny to read the comment section, seemingly oversubscribed by ignorant douchebag Steeler fans somehow convinced that the CBS project must be bogus because the final four won't consist of '74, 75, '78, and '79 Pittsburgh.

[Joel]

Because its still random.

You run that matchup again the Colts probably win more times than not. There is a few head scratchers in there but i always was intrigued by it even when Dread was running it.
Well, not truly random; probabilistic. However, since it's just a sim, the only injury risk is to circuits, so unless each game's really time consuming there's no reason each game couldn't instead be a SERIES, so flukey outcomes would be less likely to create upsets. Upsets are great exciting fun in real life (unless your favorite happens to be on the wrong end) but if we're actually trying to get a feel for which all-time great teams were THE greatest, they're very bad.

I mean, "any team can beat any other on any given Sunday" theoretically already guarantees the '08 Lions would EVENTUALLY get lucky enough to beat the '72 Dolphins at least once if they played enough times, but is that this exercises point? We want to quantitatively and qualitatively know, to the extent possible, which champions would be THE champions if they all brought their A game, no one phoned it in, everyone was healthy and a rain-slicked ball didn't muff a PAT. Right...?

I can see why Dread wouldn't want to replace a 32-team single-elimination tourney with, say, 5-game rounds with a 7-game semi and final: That's replacing 32 games with 84-171, which is a lot for one guy to sim on one computer, especially if he goes through each play-by-play to present a summary of each series, let alone game. But CBS has more computers and men for the task, and taking a root of an exponentially enlarged task makes it manageable again.

It would certainly yield less implausible results, even if the '68 Jets probably couldn't beat the '68 Colts three times, let alone four.

[Dreadnought]

By the way, the '98 Broncs elite 8 appearance in the CBS project kind of backs up that their win in my Greatest Teams Tourney wasn't a fluke after all!

Also note that the 98 Bronco - 99 Rams matchup also happened in my tournament, and the good guys won that game too!


1998 Broncos 26 - 1999 Rams 20
A good battle, with both defenses doing a fine job of slowing down their opponent. The Broncs capitalized on an Isaac Bruce fumble in taking a 13 - 3 first quarter lead, before Kurt Warner beat the suspect Bronco pass defense with a 60 yard TD strike to Torry Holt to close the gap. Jason Elam drilled a 33 yard FG to make for a tight 16 - 10 game at halftime.

The Broncos took the opening possession of the 2nd half to the Rams 27. On first and ten John Elway handed the ball to Terrell Davis, who ripped off his best run of the day for a TD and a 23 - 10 lead - but Elway was injured for the rest of the game on that play, leaving matters in the hands of Bubby Brister for the duration. the two teams exchanged FG's, and then the Rams offense swung into action, with a 30 yard run from Marshall Faulk the key play on a TD drive, capped by a 12 yard Faulk run with 6:36 remaining. The Broncos moved to midfield, but Brister missed Willie Green on a 3rd and 8, forcing a punt. The Rams were able to move to around midfield with 2:00 left, but were forced into a 4th and 2. Warner went for all the marbles, but Steve Atwater got his mitts on the ball and swatted it away, essentially ending things.

The game was pretty error free, with Bruce's 2nd quarter fumble the only turnover of the day. The Broncos did a respectable job of slowing down Kurt Warner and company - good enough to eke out a win even with a crippled offense. For the Rams part they did pretty well at stopping Terrell Davis, apart from his one 27 yard TD burst.

http://dreadnoughttourney.blogspot.com/2013_10_01_archive.html

[OrangeHoof]

I thought about your tournament while reading this. The scope was different, including teams that were not SB champs and excluding some teams where you did not have the data. Plus, yours included some pre-SB teams.

FWIW, the CBS tourney is resulting in a good representative Elite 8.

[Dreadnought]

I thought about your tournament while reading this. The scope was different, including teams that were not SB champs and excluding some teams where you did not have the data. Plus, yours included some pre-SB teams.

FWIW, the CBS tourney is resulting in a good representative Elite 8.

Agreed. The only outlier IMO is '83 Raiders, which I've never seen as a true powerhouse in either NFL or Strat-O-Matic terms. Plunkett is very good, and the defense is very very good, but its an off year for Marcus Allen, the pass blocking is very weak, and they suffer from a bit of fumble-itis. Its a very solid team, but not in a league with the other seven

[OrangeHoof]

I am noticing, too, that all the Elite 8 are teams of the 80s and 90s other than '74 Pittsburgh. A fluke to me. I never thought of the '91 Skins as elite though. Mark Rypien??

[Slick]

That tourney/thread you did was awesome, Dread.

[Dreadnought]

I am noticing, too, that all the Elite 8 are teams of the 80s and 90s other than '74 Pittsburgh. A fluke to me. I never thought of the '91 Skins as elite though. Mark Rypien??

I just had a look at '74 Pittsburgh. I will now say they don't belong here either, simply based on how terrible both Joe Gilliam and Terry Bradshaw are. '75 Pitt. is the real deal; that team is pure murder. In fact, looking at 75 there are a number of teams that would be strong great teams entrants, including Houston and Cincy. Those two plus Pittsburgh beat the stuffing out of each other. 75 Baltimore and the Rams are also really strong. Its a boom or bust season for sure, because the bad teams are really weak.

[Rex]

Wow. I am on the edge of my imaginary seat looking fwd to the outcome of this battle.