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View Full Version : Great Cam running package breakdown by @PatKirwanCBS @SiriusXMNFL



Tned
01-27-2016, 09:15 AM
This is worth the few minutes to listen to Pat explain the various (seven) designed runs that Cam runs.

https://realfootballnetwork.com/2016/01/26/cam-newton-run-package/

NightTrainLayne
01-27-2016, 12:34 PM
Every day I feel worse and worse about this match-up.

This is possibly the one team in the league who has the talent and scheme to neutralize and overcome our defense.

We're going to need the offense to score lots of points. . .and the Denver Broncos circa 2015 aren't very good at that.

arapaho2
01-27-2016, 01:30 PM
Every day I feel worse and worse about this match-up.

This is possibly the one team in the league who has the talent and scheme to neutralize and overcome our defense.

We're going to need the offense to score lots of points. . .and the Denver Broncos circa 2015 aren't very good at that.

well some seem to think getting a couple tds while missing several open guys each game is good enough...right joel

NightTerror218
01-27-2016, 01:34 PM
Every day I feel worse and worse about this match-up.

This is possibly the one team in the league who has the talent and scheme to neutralize and overcome our defense.

We're going to need the offense to score lots of points. . .and the Denver Broncos circa 2015 aren't very good at that.

I am more confident in our offense not turning the ball over 7 times. I do not think Cam Newton will demolish our defense.

Same game plan as patriots, sustain offensive drives, TDS not FGS, do not turn over ball and limit number of drives newton gets.

Panthers are the #1 team in creating TO. 8 ints by their 2 MLB alone. Control ball and do not force this game or lose track of MLB underneath to pick off short passes.

Tned
01-27-2016, 01:48 PM
Every day I feel worse and worse about this match-up.

This is possibly the one team in the league who has the talent and scheme to neutralize and overcome our defense.

We're going to need the offense to score lots of points. . .and the Denver Broncos circa 2015 aren't very good at that.

I plan to go back and watch some of the Carolina games on Game Rewind in coach's mode. For instance, I know the Seahawks held Cam to 3 yards on 11 carries. What did they do? I know they also were down something like 31-0 at half time, but didn't watch the game, only saw a few highlights.

Al Wilson 4 Mayor
01-27-2016, 02:02 PM
We have to get pressure on him without blitzing.

NightTrainLayne
01-27-2016, 02:09 PM
I plan to go back and watch some of the Carolina games on Game Rewind in coach's mode. For instance, I know the Seahawks held Cam to 3 yards on 11 carries. What did they do? I know they also were down something like 31-0 at half time, but didn't watch the game, only saw a few highlights.

You might check out the Seattle/Carolina game in Seattle early in the season as well.

In that game Seattle appeared to have the game under control and had a comfortable lead on Carolina, but in the 4th quarter, the Panthers turned it on, and won the game. In other words, Seattle has played at least two good halves against Carolina, just not in the same game.

turftoad
01-27-2016, 03:17 PM
We have to get pressure on him without blitzing.

Agreed. Problem is, Carolina has a better O line than the Patriots do.

NightTerror218
01-27-2016, 05:18 PM
Agreed. Problem is, Carolina has a better O line than the Patriots do.

But I do not think Cam has the quick release on brady. We will BLITZ more, far more. Only blitzed 16% of snaps against Pats. Regular season was in the 30% range.

Al Wilson 4 Mayor
01-27-2016, 05:28 PM
Agreed. Problem is, Carolina has a better O line than the Patriots do.

Yes they do, I agree. Seattle was able to get pressure on him, and I think we will too.

BroncoWave
01-27-2016, 05:31 PM
We sure do a good job of only making the Super Bowl in years where the NFC just has a total juggernaut don't we? :lol:

Slick
01-27-2016, 06:13 PM
Good thing it's Wade getting 2 weeks to prepare and not Jack Del Rio.

tomjonesrocks
01-27-2016, 06:18 PM
We sure do a good job of only making the Super Bowl in years where the NFC just has a total juggernaut don't we? :lol:

Breaking it down 89 49ers certainly qualify - one of the best teams ever.

And that Seattle team in hindsight, juggernaut-esque - but our performance should have been so much better.

Giants were very, very good with a HOF coach - not a historic juggernaut though IMO.

'Skins were quite beatable - that was a legitimate choke job IMO.

Denver out-juggernaut-ed a juggernaut in 32. Falcons were a lay-up - very good fortunate to miss the Vikes that year.

CrazyHorse
01-27-2016, 11:26 PM
Cam's gonna get hurt one of these days with all that runnin'...

OldschoolFreak
01-27-2016, 11:33 PM
Sure, he's a threat, I get it....It does bug me a bit how dismissive Kirwan is of the Broncos though. Goes beyond objective analysis to a sort of smug know it all mentality. PK really rubs me the wrong way.

HORSEPOWER 56
01-28-2016, 01:08 AM
Pat Kirwan is a great football mind. I'm just not so sure the stuff he is talking about will work against our defense. Wade Phillips is the best DC in the league coaching the most talented defense. Cam isn't much different now than he was when we played him before. We have the speed on defense to contain him and to get on him quickly if he does stay in the pocket.

If there's one thing everyone knows about Cam it's that he wears his emotions on his sleeve. Good and bad. He shuts down faster than just about any QB and goes into the tank quickly if things don't immediately go his way. He's used to having big leads early and coasting where he can have fun and goof off on the sidelines for most of the game. If the defense can get stops early on and keep the score close, he'll stop having fun, get frustrated and will make mistakes. We need to harass him and make him work for every yard. He's not the most mentally resilient QB. Physically gifted, but the mindset of a 12 year old. If he ain't having fun, he doesn't wanna play anymore. I think Wade and the defense can capitalize on this.

Joel
01-28-2016, 02:58 AM
I am more confident in our offense not turning the ball over 7 times. I do not think Cam Newton will demolish our defense.

Same game plan as patriots, sustain offensive drives, TDS not FGS, do not turn over ball and limit number of drives newton gets.

Panthers are the #1 team in creating TO. 8 ints by their 2 MLB alone. Control ball and do not force this game or lose track of MLB underneath to pick off short passes.
^^^TTHAT^^^ Carolinas invincibility boils down to just TWO things:

1) Cam Newton scored all but NINE of their 54 offensive TDs and
2) Their D forced 15 fumbles and snagged 24 Ints, while their offense lost just 9 fumbles and threw just 10 Ints, for an NFL-best +20 turnover differential.

So if 1) your D can stop Cams passing AND rushing (never easy, but Atlanta did it Week 16, Carolinas sole loss) and 2) your offense avoids giving away the game (Arizonas 7 turnovers only got Carolina 2 TDs—but still more than they got Arizona!) you can win. Probably SHOULD win: All that leaves them offensively is running not-Cam. Stewart ran for just under 1000 yds and a below average 4.1/att, the rest of the team ran for a bit more than 600 yds. And never faced the #1 D.

Now, their D's also very good, so we won't run all over them either, especially with a FAR worse offensive line (though I'm really hoping Kubiak's just been saving the excellent but often injured Anderson for the SB, and unleashes him now that there's nothing else LEFT to save him for.) We MUST make big plays—MANNING must—when they're there; while we don't dare FORCE them against an opportunistic D, we don't dare let that deny us our OWN opportunities either.

I still wouldn't bet against them; I wouldn't bet against MY team either, but they're favored for good reason. They've got a lot of talent in many places, and Rivera's a good coach who well knows our and their weaknesses, as well as how to exploit/mitigate both. We'll do stuff to figleaf our vulnerabilities and encourage tendencies to later capitalize on, and he'll see some of that coming and compensate for it, too. But it's far from hopeless.

My biggest encouragement is that, at the end of just his FIRST year, Kubiak's "gotten us right" every way a coach can. He shored up an AWFUL—championship-killing—offensive line as much as lack of talent and losing BOTH starting OTs for the season allowed. We've kicked and scream to the final gun of every game, are spending the SB bye practicing instead of partying, complimenting instead of provoking our opponent. We may lose again, but NOT on the KICKOFF we didn't show up for.

Edit: Another thing I meant but forgot to mention Kubiak improving: Stressing ball security after we gave away balls to seemingly the whole Steeler roster Week 15. Since then we've only had 3 turnovers in 4 games, and it would've been 2, with NONE in the playoffs, if not for that careless lateral-fumble last week. Can't do that against a turnover-crazed team like Carolina, but I'm a lot more confident about avoiding it now than I have been the last few years.

Just... no more Hillman, please; guy's averaged right at 2.0 yds/att in the playoffs, with our ONLY postseason turnover, while CJ cranked out nearly 5 yds/att in BOTH playoff games. This shouldn't even be a debate anymore. If Kubiak's been saving for him the playoffs because of his injuries: Last game, time to cash in.

Joel
01-28-2016, 03:06 AM
I plan to go back and watch some of the Carolina games on Game Rewind in coach's mode. For instance, I know the Seahawks held Cam to 3 yards on 11 carries. What did they do? I know they also were down something like 31-0 at half time, but didn't watch the game, only saw a few highlights.
Carolina's blown 21 pt second half leads THREE TIMES this year. Fortunately for them, they won all three, but it bears watching: It's a talented but young and brash D, so even if they jump out to a big early lead it doesn't mean we're cooked. They just might let us back in it (though I'm sure that, at this very moment, Rivera's underscoring the importance of NOT doing that yet again.)

I'm particularly curious about the huge late lead they blew @the Giants, breaking the tie with a walkoff FG, a week before their SOLE loss: @Atlanta, a bad team that still held Cam to <200 passing, <50 rushing and a single TD (of any kind.) I didn't see THAT game, but nothing leaps out as dominant in the stats; they only had 2 sacks (buy maybe Cam held that down with his legs) and 1 turnover. Other than limiting Cam, all that stands out is that they only COMMITTED 1 turnover.

MOtorboat
01-28-2016, 03:22 AM
^^^TTHAT^^^ Carolinas invincibility boils down to just TWO things:

1) Cam Newton scored all but NINE of their 54 offensive TDs and
2) Their D forced 15 fumbles and snagged 24 Ints, while their offense lost just 9 fumbles and threw just 10 Ints, for an NFL-best +20 turnover differential.

So if 1) your D can stop Cams passing AND rushing (never easy, but Atlanta did it Week 16, Carolinas sole loss) and 2) your offense avoids giving away the game (Arizonas 7 turnovers only got Carolina 2 TDs—but still more than they got Arizona!) you can win. Probably SHOULD win: All that leaves them offensively is running not-Cam. Stewart ran for just under 1000 yds and a below average 4.1/att, the rest of the team ran for a bit more than 600 yds. And never faced the #1 D.

Now, their D's also very good, so we won't run all over them either, especially with a FAR worse offensive line (though I'm really hoping Kubiak's just been saving the excellent but often injured Anderson for the SB, and unleashes him now that there's nothing else LEFT to save him for.) We MUST make big plays—MANNING must—when they're there; while we don't dare FORCE them against an opportunistic D, we don't dare let that deny us our OWN opportunities either.

I still wouldn't bet against them; I wouldn't bet against MY team either, but they're favored for good reason. They've got a lot of talent in many places, and Rivera's a good coach who well knows our and their weaknesses, as well as how to exploit/mitigate both. We'll do stuff to figleaf our vulnerabilities and encourage tendencies to later capitalize on, and he'll see some of that coming and compensate for it, too. But it's far from hopeless.

My biggest encouragement is that, at the end of just his FIRST year, Kubiak's "gotten us right" every way a coach can. He shored up an AWFUL—championship-killing—offensive line as much as lack of talent and losing BOTH starting OTs for the season allowed. We've kicked and scream to the final gun of every game, are spending the SB bye practicing instead of partying, complimenting instead of provoking our opponent. We may lose again, but NOT on the KICKOFF we didn't show up for.

You wouldn't bet against Carolina, but you wouldn't bet against Denver.

The offensive line is terrible, but Kubiak fixed everything that was wrong.

Did you cover all your bases so you can claim to be right about everything?

Remind me again who those four free agents were that you wanted instead of Manning?

Joel
01-28-2016, 03:48 AM
You wouldn't bet against Carolina, but you wouldn't bet against Denver.
I EXPECT Carolina to win (though I'm increasingly wavering on that; gotta keep thinking with the organ designed for it.) But I'd NEVER bet against my OWN team. No matter how many people try to snag my fan card how many times, I've still got it, despite it frequently breaking my heart.


The offensive line is terrible, but Kubiak fixed everything that was wrong.
The offensive line REMAINS terrible, but Kubiak fixed everything he COULD. Like Manning, he's just one man, it's still his first season, and I'll not blame him for draft decisions everyone praises ELWAY for making. Seriously, man, you gotta start reading what I said and stop reading what you WISH I said.


Did you cover all your bases so you can claim to be right about everything?
No, if we win, I'll be wrong for expecting Carolina to win. I may (or may not) be right about WHY we win, but will remain wrong about doubting we'd do it that way and/or that it would be enough. My heart WANTS us to win, but if I think with my BRAIN, they're better on paper. Here endeth the lesson on why it's important to think with ones brain instead of just believing whatever one wants to be true.


Remind me again who those four free agents were that you wanted instead of Manning?
I've reminded you countless times, but it never gets past the bias so it's retained in memory; you can't even remember that I ALSO cited the equally vital and viable option of DRAFTING one in the first round, so why keep wasting time? After FOUR SEASONS, there's been so many great but missed opportunities it's hard to keep track of them all. But hey, maybe Ray or Latimer will be this years SB MVP; then it'll all be worthwhile. :)

Dapper Dan
01-28-2016, 05:05 AM
Will you two just bone already?

TXBRONC
01-28-2016, 08:31 AM
Sure, he's a threat, I get it....It does bug me a bit how dismissive Kirwan is of the Broncos though. Goes beyond objective analysis to a sort of smug know it all mentality. PK really rubs me the wrong way.

I didn't think he was dismissive. He pointed out things that will make it difficult to defend. Dismissive is what Mark Schlereth did last week He said he would be shocked if Denver beat the Patriots. To me that is dismissive.

TXBRONC
01-28-2016, 08:32 AM
Will you two just bone already?

First comes the courtship.

Dapper Dan
01-28-2016, 09:23 AM
First comes the courtship.

The sexual tension is suffocating.

WARHORSE
01-29-2016, 12:10 PM
Im not concerned with Cam and the offense so much. I think our defense is going to present quite the obstacle for them and they will feel hit in the mouth.

But I am concerned about their defense. Its very good. About as good in the run as we are, however their passing defense is middle of the pack.

I am SO hoping we spread them out and go hurry up when we get the personel matchups we want.

Kubes, please let Peyton bring his BRAIN onto the field. And his quick release is our best pass protector.

And let Lattimer replace Vernon Davis at TE on a bunch of plays. The man is a tenacious blocker and will be a matchup problem for them imo.

TXBRONC
01-29-2016, 12:14 PM
The sexual tension is suffocating.

Maybe a cold shower is needed.

Dapper Dan
01-29-2016, 12:15 PM
Maybe a cold shower is needed.

Shower orgy.

TXBRONC
01-29-2016, 12:19 PM
Shower orgy.

A cold shower would put a damper on things.

Dapper Dan
01-29-2016, 12:50 PM
A cold shower would put a damper on things.

Depends on how dedicated you are. I say we take a handful of blue pills and have at it.

TXBRONC
01-29-2016, 12:56 PM
Depends on how dedicated you are. I say we take a handful of blue pills and have at it.

I"ll pass.

Joel
01-29-2016, 01:38 PM
I am SO hoping we spread them out and go hurry up when we get the personel matchups we want.

Kubes, please let Peyton bring his BRAIN onto the field. And his quick release is our best pass protector.
That worked so well our last SB: Safety, three-and-out, Int, pick-six and 22-0 before we even had a FIRST DOWN.

We MUST run well enough Peyton doesn't have to do it alone, living in 3rd and long against pass rushers who have NO reason to hesitate and look over their shoulder for a run ("so what if they run for another 2 yd gain?") and safeties who have NO reason not to hang back and cover the deep ball.

Run to establish the pass: It's worked for a century. Let THEM play the great QB vs. entire great D game this time.

NightTerror218
01-29-2016, 02:07 PM
I think hillman could have a good game in SB. If he is used to go around the edges or between tackle and guard to get outside quick and avoid Luke and thomas. His speed could help him out a lot if given a hole.

CJ should be the primary back this game he runs harder and has been better overall.

Ravage!!!
01-29-2016, 02:07 PM
stop with the last Super Bowl comparisons. Seriously. Lets be honest and just realize that that Super Bowl, was an aberration where EVERYTHING went wrong that could, and it started with play one. That set the tone,and it didn't get better. QUIT thinking that game represents everything about the Broncos and Manning. It's gotten Sooooo old.

NightTerror218
01-29-2016, 02:09 PM
That worked so well our last SB: Safety, three-and-out, Int, pick-six and 22-0 before we even had a FIRST DOWN.

We MUST run well enough Peyton doesn't have to do it alone, living in 3rd and long against pass rushers who have NO reason to hesitate and look over their shoulder for a run ("so what if they run for another 2 yd gain?") and safeties who have NO reason not to hang back and cover the deep ball.

Run to establish the pass: It's worked for a century. Let THEM play the great QB vs. entire great D game this time.

I am looking for Manning to take good shots down field when WR win. That being said I would love Sanders to torch someone along sidelines for another big TD. I big slap in the face like that could hurt a very emotional team.

If defense can rattle Cam and get into his head they will crumble. But that dude is a play maker and is harder to tackle them big ben. Guys will need to ensure no tackles are missed.

NightTerror218
01-29-2016, 02:11 PM
Our defense was outstanding against the Pats and this was without blitzing. This defense can do so much and i hope confuse Cam. He is still young.

Joel
01-29-2016, 02:43 PM
stop with the last Super Bowl comparisons. Seriously. Lets be honest and just realize that that Super Bowl, was an aberration where EVERYTHING went wrong that could, and it started with play one. That set the tone,and it didn't get better. QUIT thinking that game represents everything about the Broncos and Manning. It's gotten Sooooo old.
That "aberration" has been the NORM for TWO SEASONS and counting. In fact, it started half a season BEFORE the SB, when a SD team with a weak secondary but good running heavily blitzed Manning through our crap line, then kept him off the field entirely by grinding out long drives when SD got the ball. That was good enough to hand The Best Passing EVAH! one of its few losses all year, nearly get another at seasons end, and come within a TD of forcing OT in the playoffs.

The NFL's not a playground where defenses must count alligators or Mississippis before rushing the passer: If NO ONE blocks them and there's NO run threat, they'll just decapitate him at the snap. The biggest thing "just one Championship" proved is that even when Manning AND the D play amazingly well, we'll still lose by 5 TDs if we can't run well enough to avoid 3rd and long NOR protect a great passer well enough to convert it. There's nothing wrong with homerism, but it can't win SBs.

Joel
01-29-2016, 03:03 PM
I think hillman could have a good game in SB. If he is used to go around the edges or between tackle and guard to get outside quick and avoid Luke and thomas. His speed could help him out a lot if given a hole.
Kuechly and Davis are as fast or even FASTER than Hillman, but, more importantly, they're faster to the hole than our linemen. "His speed could help him out a lot if given a hole," yes, but that's been true all year: He's just rarely BEEN given a hole. THIS line usually forces RBs to MAKE their OWN holes, which both Anderson and Thompson do far better. I don't blame Hillman regularly going down beneath 2-3 tacklers behind the line; that's been the norm in Denver for a depressingly long time. But it's not gonna magically and inexplicably change in the next two weeks, so we must accept and compensate for reality.


CJ should be the primary back this game he runs harder and has been better overall.
Agreed. I also agree that could give Hillman a field day in his designated change-up role, especially if they crowd the middle of the line to stop Anderson, whether by choice or because he breaks off a few power runs that force them to compensate. IF we get something like that going, Manning will have all day against minimal pressure that's constantly stopping to look over its shoulder for Anderson or Hillman, and safeties coming up to stuff the run instead of hanging back for Ints.


I am looking for Manning to take good shots down field when WR win. That being said I would love Sanders to torch someone along sidelines for another big TD. I big slap in the face like that could hurt a very emotional team.
We definitely must take and make big shots WHEN there, and potentially crumbling a young emotional team's just another of many reasons. Their D's not smoke and mirrors, so will rarely give us chances at kill shots: So it's that much more important we make those few chances count.


If defense can rattle Cam and get into his head they will crumble. But that dude is a play maker and is harder to tackle them big ben. Guys will need to ensure no tackles are missed.
Maybe this is my own homerism, but I expect our D to generally contain Cam and his whole offense (to the extent there's a difference.) People say we've not faced legit dual-threats, but I don't know why: We played Big Ben twice, Alex Smith twice and Andrew Luck once—and that's JUST THIS YEAR. Most of this D's been here since the last SB, which means it also faced Luck and Smith twice each last year, and Wilson once, plus five games against Smith, Luck, Wilson or Vick in 2013.

They may or may not be on Cams LEVEL, but all are DEFINITELY in the same mold (and blow holes in Cams recent "no one's ever seen a black man do what I do" comment; the big difference is his strutting-before-accomplishments is more like McMahon and Namath, but no one liked that from them either.)

NightTerror218
01-29-2016, 04:36 PM
That "aberration" has been the NORM for TWO SEASONS and counting. In fact, it started half a season BEFORE the SB, when a SD team with a weak secondary but good running heavily blitzed Manning through our crap line, then kept him off the field entirely by grinding out long drives when SD got the ball. That was good enough to hand The Best Passing EVAH! one of its few losses all year, nearly get another at seasons end, and come within a TD of forcing OT in the playoffs.

The NFL's not a playground where defenses must count alligators or Mississippis before rushing the passer: If NO ONE blocks them and there's NO run threat, they'll just decapitate him at the snap. The biggest thing "just one Championship" proved is that even when Manning AND the D play amazingly well, we'll still lose by 5 TDs if we can't run well enough to avoid 3rd and long NOR protect a great passer well enough to convert it. There's nothing wrong with homerism, but it can't win SBs.

Their strength is their LB corp. They make the plays. Norman I think locks up 1 WR. But most teams have played man to man against Manning leaving the deep shots one on one end of manning g has time to throw, reason why some are forced early or over thrown. Bump at line to mess with timing g and force Manning to hold on for an extra second.

8 ints over the middle for panthers is crazy, more then some teams had all year.

Joel
01-29-2016, 05:18 PM
Their strength is their LB corp. They make the plays. Norman I think locks up 1 WR. But most teams have played man to man against Manning leaving the deep shots one on one end of manning g has time to throw, reason why some are forced early or over thrown. Bump at line to mess with timing g and force Manning to hold on for an extra second.

8 ints over the middle for panthers is crazy, more then some teams had all year.
In other words, the 2½-YEAR-LONG "anomaly" of SB 48 will continue. But we'll surely be fine if we respond to it with a far weaker version of the same passing game we relied on exclusively then: What could POSSIBLY go wrong? :rolleyes:

No, Carolina's secondary's not as good (or dirty) as Seattles, but

1) Bumping at the line,
2) Drop excellent LBs into quick-tackling short coverage over the middle so
3) The DBs can be "thieves" in a Cover 2 or 3, ALL of which ensuring
4) A four-man rush gets through our weak protection to Manning before anyone can shake the coverage

sure sounds familiar. It BLEW US OUT when we threw 55 TDs and just 10 Ints; it'll probably work as well when we threw 19 TDs and 23 Ints.

UNLESS we run well enough the safeties can't hang back waiting for picks, the CBs bumps just make it easier to block them and the pass rush must look over its shoulder in case of another big run, rather than blowing off runs that gain NOTHING anyway.

Joel
01-29-2016, 05:52 PM
If you think they (WHOEVER "they" are) are better than you, swing for the fences, because the risk is NECESSARY, however great or small: You ALWAYS lose a vanilla game to a far better team, so taking chances is your ONLY shot. Score enough early and you even force THEM to take chances, getting them out of their normal vanilla comfort zone so you force turnovers instead of just committing them.

If you think you're as good/better, never give a sucker an even break: The ONLY way you lose to a lesser team is giving away turnovers; don't even CHANCE it.