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Cugel
10-21-2015, 10:00 PM
Since the is the bye-week, it's worth while to take a look at this defense. Visually, it's great, but just how great in comparison to historically great defenses all time?

While the offense struggles, the Broncos defense is by FAR the best in the NFL right now. It's not really even close. They are playing at an historically great level. Not on a par with the 2000 Ravens (modern all time record 165 points), but probably about equal to the 2013 Seahawks.

Now, it's not the playoffs it's week six and they have to do it in the post season to be considered among the great defenses of all time. But, the bye-week is a good time to take stock.

The Broncos are 5th in points surrendered through 6 games, but take a closer look.

#1 - The Jets have surrendered 75 points through 5 games.
#2 - The Vikings 83 points.
#3 - Panthers 94 points.
#4 - Packers 101 points.

But, 21 of those points are due to Peyton's pick-sixes. Those shouldn't count against the defense because they weren't even on the field. Subtracting Ints and Fumbles returned for TDs and correcting for # of games played - for every team, shows this:

#1 - Denver defense gave up 81 points through 6 games (13.5 ppg).
#2 - Jets defense gave up 75 points through 5 games (15 ppg).
#3 - Vikings defense gave up 83 points through 5 games (16.6 ppg).
#4 - Packers defense gave up 101 points through 6 games (16.8 ppg).
#5 - Carolina defense gave up 94 points through 5 games (18.8 ppg).

13.5 ppg x 16 games = 216 points. For comparison that is lower than almost any team since the 2003 Super Bowl Champion Bucs who gave up 196 points (12.25 ppg).

The 2013 Seahawks surrendered 231 points (14.44 ppg). The '85 Bears gave up 198 and the '86 Bears 187.

Other teams worth mentioning, 2011 Steelers surrendered 211 points, 2006 Ravens 201 points. 2005 Bears who lost the SB to Peyton Manning's Colts gave up 202 points.
Now the 2005 Bears had Rex Grossman at QB, yet made the SB, so that's worth mentioning.

The NFL has changed the rules so that nobody can play defense like the '85 Bears, the 2000 Ravens or the 2002 Bucs. E.G. John Lynch used to prowl the middle of the field and hammer the defenseless receiver going over the middle. You can't do that any more.

But, the Broncos defense is also leading the league in give-away/takeaways (+6), despite the offense having 11 turnovers including 10 Peyton Ints. For comparison, no other team at +6 has more than five giveaways. Denver's defense has 17 recovered fumbles and Ints including 3 returned for TDs.

So, the defense is not only preventing opponents scoring, they are taking the ball away at a phenomenal rate (nearly 3 per game). Moreover, they are getting huge turnovers late in games to win them, something that doesn't show up in stats, but directly contributes to victory.

The defense is not going to average 13.5 ppg all season long, not after playing the Packers, Bengals and Patriots. But, even though this number will go up, they are clearly on pace to have one of the best defenses of all time in the modern era (since the '85 Bears - and not counting defenses in the 70's and 60's when offenses scored much less due to rule differences).

It's still early and they have to avoid serious injuries to key players, but so far statistically they are on pace to have the kind of great defense that wins Super Bowls.

TimHippo
10-21-2015, 10:36 PM
Since the is the bye-week, it's worth while to take a look at this defense. Visually, it's great, but just how great in comparison to historically great defenses all time?

While the offense struggles, the Broncos defense is by FAR the best in the NFL right now. It's not really even close. They are playing at an historically great level. Not on a par with the 2000 Ravens (modern all time record 165 points), but probably about equal to the 2013 Seahawks.

Now, it's not the playoffs it's week six and they have to do it in the post season to be considered among the great defenses of all time. But, the bye-week is a good time to take stock.

The Broncos are 5th in points surrendered through 6 games, but take a closer look.

#1 - The Jets have surrendered 75 points through 5 games.
#2 - The Vikings 83 points.
#3 - Panthers 94 points.
#4 - Packers 101 points.

But, 21 of those points are due to Peyton's pick-sixes. Those shouldn't count against the defense because they weren't even on the field. Subtracting Ints and Fumbles returned for TDs and correcting for # of games played - for every team, shows this:

#1 - Denver defense gave up 81 points through 6 games (13.5 ppg).
#2 - Jets defense gave up 75 points through 5 games (15 ppg).
#3 - Vikings defense gave up 83 points through 5 games (16.6 ppg).
#4 - Packers defense gave up 101 points through 6 games (16.8 ppg).
#5 - Carolina defense gave up 94 points through 5 games (18.8 ppg).

13.5 ppg x 16 games = 216 points. For comparison that is lower than almost any team since the 2003 Super Bowl Champion Bucs who gave up 196 points (12.25 ppg).

The 2013 Seahawks surrendered 231 points (14.44 ppg). The '85 Bears gave up 198 and the '86 Bears 187.

Other teams worth mentioning, 2011 Steelers surrendered 211 points, 2006 Ravens 201 points. 2005 Bears who lost the SB to Peyton Manning's Colts gave up 202 points.
Now the 2005 Bears had Rex Grossman at QB, yet made the SB, so that's worth mentioning.

The NFL has changed the rules so that nobody can play defense like the '85 Bears, the 2000 Ravens or the 2002 Bucs. E.G. John Lynch used to prowl the middle of the field and hammer the defenseless receiver going over the middle. You can't do that any more.

But, the Broncos defense is also leading the league in give-away/takeaways (+6), despite the offense having 11 turnovers including 10 Peyton Ints. For comparison, no other team at +6 has more than five giveaways. Denver's defense has 17 recovered fumbles and Ints including 3 returned for TDs.

So, the defense is not only preventing opponents scoring, they are taking the ball away at a phenomenal rate (nearly 3 per game). Moreover, they are getting huge turnovers late in games to win them, something that doesn't show up in stats, but directly contributes to victory.

The defense is not going to average 13.5 ppg all season long, not after playing the Packers, Bengals and Patriots. But, even though this number will go up, they are clearly on pace to have one of the best defenses of all time in the modern era (since the '85 Bears - and not counting defenses in the 70's and 60's when offenses scored much less due to rule differences).

It's still early and they have to avoid serious injuries to key players, but so far statistically they are on pace to have the kind of great defense that wins Super Bowls.

They would have to win the super bowl to be considered among the greatest of all time. That's almost a prerequisite.

Some of Buddy Ryan's Eagles defense's with Reggie White/Jerome Brown/Seth Joyner/Eric Allen statistically are probably within the greatest of all time but they never went anywhere in the playoffs so it hurts them.

The 84 Bears defense was arguably better than the 85 Super Bowl Bears. Personal wise they had two all pros in Al Harris and Todd Bell who weren't on the 85 team because they held out for the entire 85 season. The 84 team still holds the league record for most sacks ever in a season at 72, seven more than the 85 Super Bowl team which had 64. The main difference with the 84 team is that Jim McMahon was injured and missed the last 6 games and the playoffs. The 86 Bears were also statistically better than 85 Super Bowl team but weren't the same defense because Buddy Ryan left for Philly and Tobin came and stopped playing the 46. That team also flamed out after Mcmahon was injured.

I think if you look at the greatest defenses of all time, they either won or made it multiple times to the super bowl. Doomsday Defense, Purple People Eaters, Steel Curtain, Kansas City Chiefs, Ravens. Sometimes regular seasons defensive statistics can be influenced by strength or weakness of schedule so the playoffs are kind of the great equalizer in terms of defensive greatness. For example, you could play a really soft schedule because your division is weak and your conference is weak and rack up stats but to test your true metal you need to show that you can beat the best.

So alot of it will be contingent on Manning and the offense doing their job and getting to and winning the super bowl.

sneakers
10-22-2015, 05:42 AM
not unless the broncos win in the playoffs / superbowl in dominant fashion

sneakers
10-22-2015, 05:43 AM
not unless the broncos win in the playoffs / superbowl in dominant fashion

for example: the 1989 Denver Defense is one of the top 10 all time statistically, but the fact that they lost 55-10 in the Super bowl and no one remembers

SR
10-22-2015, 06:43 AM
They've scored four defensive touchdowns off of turnovers. Harris has one pick six, Talib has two pick sixes, and Roby had a fumble recovery return for a TD.

Northman
10-22-2015, 07:24 AM
not unless the broncos win in the playoffs / superbowl in dominant fashion


for example: the 1989 Denver Defense is one of the top 10 all time statistically, but the fact that they lost 55-10 in the Super bowl and no one remembers

All this^

BroncoWave
10-22-2015, 07:29 AM
Just out of curiosity I went and looked at the 6 offenses we have faced so far because it really seems like we haven't faced an offensive juggernaut yet. Here are their rankings in yards and points per game:

YPG:
9, 10, 12, 20, 23, 31 (Average: 17.5)

PPG:
11, 12, 20, 22, 26, 29 (Average: 20)

So while we have played a couple of decent offenses, we haven't really faced any truly elite ones yet, and we've gotten to play a few of the worst.

Now to be clear, none of this is to discount our defense at all, they are for sure awesome and one of the best if not the best in the NFL this season. But if we want to truly call this defense a historically great unit or the best of all time, then they also need to shut down teams like the Packers, Pats, and Bengals. We will find out very soon how good this defense actually is on a historical scale.

chazoe60
10-22-2015, 07:52 AM
Just out of curiosity I went and looked at the 6 offenses we have faced so far because it really seems like we haven't faced an offensive juggernaut yet. Here are their rankings in yards and points per game:

YPG:
9, 10, 12, 20, 23, 31 (Average: 17.5)

PPG:
11, 12, 20, 22, 26, 29 (Average: 20)

So while we have played a couple of decent offenses, we haven't really faced any truly elite ones yet, and we've gotten to play a few of the worst.

Now to be clear, none of this is to discount our defense at all, they are for sure awesome and one of the best if not the best in the NFL this season. But if we want to truly call this defense a historically great unit or the best of all time, then they also need to shut down teams like the Packers, Pats, and Bengals. We will find out very soon how good this defense actually is on a historical scale.

When looking at that don't forget that part of the reason those teams rank where they do is because they had the misfortune of having to play our defense. Know what I mean?

Ravage!!!
10-22-2015, 10:35 AM
When looking at that don't forget that part of the reason those teams rank where they do is because they had the misfortune of having to play our defense. Know what I mean?

I was going to say this, as well. 20% of their offensive output was against our D, so that's a pretty big chunk to be considered when it comes to taking in the averages.

Cugel
10-22-2015, 01:00 PM
They would have to win the super bowl to be considered among the greatest of all time. That's almost a prerequisite.

Some of Buddy Ryan's Eagles defense's with Reggie White/Jerome Brown/Seth Joyner/Eric Allen statistically are probably within the greatest of all time but they never went anywhere in the playoffs so it hurts them.

The 84 Bears defense was arguably better than the 85 Super Bowl Bears. Personal wise they had two all pros in Al Harris and Todd Bell who weren't on the 85 team because they held out for the entire 85 season. The 84 team still holds the league record for most sacks ever in a season at 72, seven more than the 85 Super Bowl team which had 64. The main difference with the 84 team is that Jim McMahon was injured and missed the last 6 games and the playoffs. The 86 Bears were also statistically better than 85 Super Bowl team but weren't the same defense because Buddy Ryan left for Philly and Tobin came and stopped playing the 46. That team also flamed out after Mcmahon was injured.

I think if you look at the greatest defenses of all time, they either won or made it multiple times to the super bowl. Doomsday Defense, Purple People Eaters, Steel Curtain, Kansas City Chiefs, Ravens. Sometimes regular seasons defensive statistics can be influenced by strength or weakness of schedule so the playoffs are kind of the great equalizer in terms of defensive greatness. For example, you could play a really soft schedule because your division is weak and your conference is weak and rack up stats but to test your true metal you need to show that you can beat the best.

So alot of it will be contingent on Manning and the offense doing their job and getting to and winning the super bowl.

Of course this is correct. That's why I say in my post that "it's only 6 games in" and that the team will have to do this in the playoffs.

But, it's the bye-week, so it's appropriate to talk about how the defense is doing right now. As of now, they are on track to be about as good as the 2013 Seahawks defense, but not as good as the 2000 Ravens, 2002 Bucs or '85 Bears. The reason for that is obvious. The NFL changed a bunch of rules to favor the offense.

Can't hit the QB in the head or knees. Can barely touch him if he is in the pocket after he throws the ball. Can't hit the defenseless receiver or touch him at all after 5 yards. All that stuff takes away the chief weapon NFL pass defenses had in the past - intimidation. In the past, a WR going across the middle would get crushed by the safety to intimidate him. Defenses owned the middle of the field. All those crossing routes and pick plays offenses run now would have resulted in the WR getting carried off the field on a cart in 1985.

So, the Seahawks and Broncos defenses are under a handicap that previous defenses didn't have to face, and the result is that even the best defenses today can't hope to equal the '85 Bears, 2002 Bucs or 2000 Ravens.

Clearly some extremely good defenses - 2011 Steelers for instance, that lost to the Tebow Broncos, never made it to the Super Bowl. The 1986 Bears team that lost to the Giants in the playoffs gave up even fewer points than the '85 team, but hardly anybody mentions them.

Cugel
10-22-2015, 01:17 PM
I think if you look at the greatest defenses of all time, they either won or made it multiple times to the super bowl. Doomsday Defense, Purple People Eaters, Steel Curtain, Kansas City Chiefs, Ravens. Sometimes regular seasons defensive statistics can be influenced by strength or weakness of schedule so the playoffs are kind of the great equalizer in terms of defensive greatness. For example, you could play a really soft schedule because your division is weak and your conference is weak and rack up stats but to test your true metal you need to show that you can beat the best.

So alot of it will be contingent on Manning and the offense doing their job and getting to and winning the super bowl.

I would point out that no matter how good defensive players are today, NOBODY can hope to dominate offenses like, say, the Doomsday Defense, the Purple People Eaters or the Steel Curtain. Not only could you hit the defenseless receiver in those days, you could hand-check them all over the field. Not only that, but the refs wouldn't call pass-interference if the QB didn't throw the ball at a receiver.

So, defenders could totally mug a WR and if the QB saw that and threw in another direction, the ref wouldn't throw the flag because it "didn't influence the play." The league had to change that rule to open up the passing game.

The result was dramatic. Offenses in the 60's 70's and early 80's were run dominated, and the QB was just another player - more important than the others but you could win the SB with Marcus Allen rushing for 191 yards and 2 TDs while their QB Jim Plunkett was throwing for 171 yards.

You can't do that today of course.

So, obviously the Broncos are not getting within sniffing distance of the SB unless the offensive line gets straightened out and they begin to run the ball more effectively and Peyton stops throwing picks. Even if all that happens, the 2015 Broncos are a pale shadow of the 2013 offensive juggernaut because they lost Wes Welker and Julius Thomas and essentially nobody replaced them.

In 2013 the Broncos had 5 targets in the red zone, because Knowshon Moreno was a good pass receiver target too and defenses couldn't cover them all with LBs. Someone was bound to be open. Today Peyton has 2 targets - Sanders and DT, that's it. He tried to force the ball in to Daniels, but that only resulted in the pick to Carlos Dansby. Unlike J.T. Daniels can easily be covered by a LB. And the same thing happened when he tried to throw it to Ronny Hillman.

But, the theory is that the offense doesn't have to be great with this defense. They only have to be good.

TimHippo
10-22-2015, 01:25 PM
Even if all that happens, the 2015 Broncos are a pale shadow of the 2013 offensive juggernaut because they lost Wes Welker and Julius Thomas and essentially nobody replaced them.

In 2013 the Broncos had 5 targets in the red zone, because Knowshon Moreno was a good pass receiver target too and defenses couldn't cover them all with LBs. Someone was bound to be open. Today Peyton has 2 targets - Sanders and DT, that's it. He tried to force the ball in to Daniels, but that only resulted in the pick to Carlos Dansby. Unlike J.T. Daniels can easily be covered by a LB. And the same thing happened when he tried to throw it to Ronny Hillman.

Yeah, separate issue than this thread but I've mentioned this elsewhere that Manning has less weapons (to go with his deteriorating physical tools) than 2013.

Welker is kind of a reliable 1st down safety value. He was essentially an elite possession receiver.
DT can stretch the field and is a great #1.
And Dekker is top #3 receiver. (He's a below average primary target, and average 2nd receiver, but is a monster as the 3rd option).
Moreno was one of the best pass catching receivers.
And J.T. could also stretch the field and was a big target.

It's also exacerbated by the fact that Ronnie Hillman is one of the worst pass catching backs. So whenever he's in the game, Peyton automatically loses a target and a blitz saftey valve.

TimHippo
10-22-2015, 01:34 PM
Can't hit the QB in the head or knees. Can barely touch him if he is in the pocket after he throws the ball. Can't hit the defenseless receiver or touch him at all after 5 yards. All that stuff takes away the chief weapon NFL pass defenses had in the past - intimidation. In the past, a WR going across the middle would get crushed by the safety to intimidate him. Defenses owned the middle of the field. All those crossing routes and pick plays offenses run now would have resulted in the WR getting carried off the field on a cart in 1985.

So, the Seahawks and Broncos defenses are under a handicap that previous defenses didn't have to face, and the result is that even the best defenses today can't hope to equal the '85 Bears, 2002 Bucs or 2000 Ravens.

Clearly some extremely good defenses - 2011 Steelers for instance, that lost to the Tebow Broncos, never made it to the Super Bowl. The 1986 Bears team that lost to the Giants in the playoffs gave up even fewer points than the '85 team, but hardly anybody mentions them.

I wouldn't say you couldn't catch up the middle. Jerry Rice and Anthony Carter made a living running the slant up the middle and turning up the extra gear for the touchdown leaving the two defensive backs in the dust. In Rice's case it was that extra gear he developed from chasing down horses when he was a kid.

Otherwise, yeah, the NFL's promotion of offense have really made the game unrecognizable. It's basically not even the same game and is almost two hand touch. Alot of the defenses were designed to scare and knock the QB out of the game but you can't do that now as the QB is wearing a tutu and if you breath on him it's a penalty.

That will always handicap the new defenses but even with in that you look at what the 2014 Seahawks did and they are right there with the best of all time. So they are kind of the new barometer for the modern "non contact rules era".

But you have to win it all, so that's always the big caveat.
And alot of times to win it all and for the defense to be able to sustain dominance it is predicated on an offense that can ball control with the run game and dominate the time of possession. This keeps the opposing offense off the field and allows the defense to rest. I'd say the majority of the best defenses of all time did have this dominant run game and time of possession and I'm not sure this year's Broncos have that on offense.

NightTerror218
10-22-2015, 02:07 PM
Peyton if not for your pick sixes this defense could be the greatest of all time.


That is lame to count pick sixes against a defense and what they hold a team too.

BroncoWave
10-22-2015, 02:24 PM
I was going to say this, as well. 20% of their offensive output was against our D, so that's a pretty big chunk to be considered when it comes to taking in the averages.

Even still, we clearly haven't played one of the elite offenses yet. If they shut down Green Bay and New England then you can start to put them in the conversation with the all time great defenses.

DenBronx
10-22-2015, 04:46 PM
I might be among the few that thinks the 2013 Seahawks defense was better than the 2000 Ravens.

This Denver defense is one of the best defenses we have ever had. Just wish our offense would show some signs of life and we could go deep in the playoffs. We MUST eliminate the turnovers on offense. So far Manning has been the sole reason for those turnovers. What once was our greatest strength has now become our weakness. Hope we don't get let down against GB because a good defense will shut down an offense no matter how good it is. Just reference the 2013 Seahawks in the SB. :(

Northman
10-22-2015, 04:49 PM
Yea, cant agree with you about the Seahawks having a better D than the 2000 Ravens.

Joel
10-22-2015, 05:50 PM
I might be among the few that thinks the 2013 Seahawks defense was better than the 2000 Ravens.

This Denver defense is one of the best defenses we have ever had. Just wish our offense would show some signs of life and we could go deep in the playoffs. We MUST eliminate the turnovers on offense. So far Manning has been the sole reason for those turnovers. What once was our greatest strength has now become our weakness. Hope we don't get let down against GB because a good defense will shut down an offense no matter how good it is. Just reference the 2013 Seahawks in the SB. :(
That was great PASSING, not great OFFENSE; our rushing average was 20th, almost BOTTOM 10. That has more than age to do with why Manning and our offense have been crap ever since: Unless Father Time caught up with him overnight between January 2014 (when Manning shattered the record for season passing TDs) and February 2014 (when we didn't have a FIRST DOWN until midway through the SECOND quarter, and our LONE score was on the THIRD QUARTERS FINAL PLAY) our problem's are more about blocking and balance than the QBs age.

As for whether this is an All Time Great D: Even restricting "all time" to the post-merger era covers MANY HoF defenses, particularly before the cap and free agency (when teams could lock up whole rosters of All Pros for entire careers.) Less than halfway through a season where we've mostly played bad offenses is definitely FAR too early to rank us among dynasties.

Our defenses Achilles heel has long been and remains size sacrificed for speed, even if that suits Wades high risk/reward aggression. Recent years have worn and broken down our D over each season as our offenses brief drives (whether scoring or not) forced them to spend a lot of time on the field weekly. Virtually all our linemen are undersized by 3-4 standards (e.g. 313 lb. Sly is huge, but not by the standards of 3-4 NTs, who commonly play 20-30 lbs. heavier) and all our backup ILBs are lighter than Seahawks SAFETY Kam Chancellor.

One worrisome point: In the last Gameday thread, someone re-posted a tweet from a Broncos beat reporter noting Kilgo was inactive last week and asking if we even HAVE a third NT; the answer, of course, is "no," which means the only way we'll be able to continually collapse pockets and force double teams from the NT spot is if Sly AND Kilgo stay healthy enough all season to give each other breathers. I'm actually curious (but couldn't tell from a bad stream) who subbed for Sly last week, since our only players with ANY true DT experience are Walker and Smith (no, Jackson/Wolfe playing UT in nickel doesn't count.)

Joel
10-22-2015, 05:59 PM
By the way, the flip side of "the bad offenses we've played to 20% of their stats vs. our D" is that we got 60% of our eye-popping takeaway totals from them.

Net turnovers correlates to wins better than any other stat (except net points, obviously) because it reflects coaches possessing and instilling meticulous fundamentals, alertness and discipline in every aspect of the game. Every defense benefits and every offense suffers from turnovers, but great defense FORCES and bad offenses COMMIT them. When a ball squirts lose at the feet of four teammates yet a lone opponent dives in from out of frame to capture it, that's not luck: The long opponent was and the other players were NOT on the ball figuratively, and thus literally.

I haven't checked where our opponents rank in giveaways, but do wonder.

DenBronx
10-23-2015, 05:29 AM
That's a real cool story bro.

Joel
10-23-2015, 12:27 PM
That's a real cool story bro.
Our offense and QB are playing no worse than when they plodded through the 2013 playoffs to be smashed in the SB: If Father Time hadn't caught up with historys greatest PASSING then, he still hasn't.

The difference is that if we put 7 in coverage (as Seattle did us) or blitz Rodgers, Lacy can still kill us 5 yds at a time; if we stack the box on Lacy, Rodgers can kill us instead. What a difference balance makes.