Barnwell: Broncos among Super Bowl contenders again

[VonDoom]

Bill Barnwell at Grantland broke the NFL preview up into four sections of eight teams - the bottom tier, teams that should slip from last year, teams that should improve from last year, and finally, the contenders. Once again, this is where we end up (note of caution - he has the Chiefs in this tier, too, so make of that what you will). He makes a case that even if Manning is bad, the rest of the team is in great shape:


I think the Broncos could very well be a playoff team if Manning posted a QBR in the 50 range, barring a catastrophic injury stack or the team straight-up rejecting Kubiak’s leadership and quitting on him altogether. The team around him is good enough to justify a playoff run with a mediocre quarterback if it plays close to how it performed in 2014. And if Manning actually does return to his early 2014 form (let alone his historically great 2013 numbers), this could quickly become one of the best teams in football, if not the best.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nfl-2015-season-predictions-part-4-the-contenders/

[TXBRONC]

I don't necessarily agree with him that Denver would finish 6-10 if Osweiler had to step in. He looked very comfortable in the offense and this now his forth season in the League.

[VonDoom]

I don't necessarily agree with him that Denver would finish 6-10 if Osweiler had to step in. He looked very comfortable in the offense and this now his forth season in the League.

Well, he puts a "worst case scenario" for each time, so it has to be pretty dire. He even said in that case that they would be "worse than he expects" so it would have to be REALLY bad for that to even be a possibility.

[tripp]

Anyone else get the vibe there doesn't seem to be much hype around the Broncos being Super Bowl contenders this year? I don't mind it as I like flying under the radar. I think perhaps a lot of people are sceptical of us because of Peyton's performance in the 2nd half of the season last year.

[silkamilkamonico]

Anyone else get the vibe there doesn't seem to be much hype around the Broncos being Super Bowl contenders this year? I don't mind it as I like flying under the radar. I think perhaps a lot of people are sceptical of us because of Peyton's performance in the 2nd half of the season last year.

Pretty sure a big part of that has to do with this team putting on the big fluff in the last 4 playoff games they were eliminated from instead of actually staying competitive, so there should be a big question everywhere of is this team tough enough to fight in the biggest games possible.

[tripp]

Pretty sure a big part of that has to do with this team putting on the big fluff in the last 4 playoff games they were eliminated from instead of actually staying competitive, so there should be a big question everywhere of is this team tough enough to fight in the biggest games possible.

Good point. While I expect us to be a good team this year, I'm trying to keep my expectations realistic at the same time. We have a tough schedule ahead of us, and if we come out of it on top, we SHOULD (barring any injuries) be primed for a good playoff run as we'll be playing against much of the teams we played this season.

[Cugel]

I don't necessarily agree with him that Denver would finish 6-10 if Osweiler had to step in. He looked very comfortable in the offense and this now his forth season in the League.

Whether they would be 6-10 I don't know, but I think the idea is that exhibition games simply aren't a good measure of how a QB will do in the regular season. Teams don't game-plan to stop Brock during the preseason by attacking his weaknesses. There is no regular season game film on him, and nobody has a clue how he'd do.

I mean Bradley Van Pelt looked great in the 4th game of the preseason too a few times, for all that mattered.

But, QBs who are starting their first NFL season almost always struggle. Even Andrew Luck didn't do great his first year. Maybe the team would still make the playoffs, but to expect the Broncos to contend for a Superbowl with a QB who's never started a meaningful game before just because he looked (sort of) good in the preseason is beyond silly.

Winning a SB this season depends on Peyton Manning.

[Cugel]

Good point. While I expect us to be a good team this year, I'm trying to keep my expectations realistic at the same time. We have a tough schedule ahead of us, and if we come out of it on top, we SHOULD (barring any injuries) be primed for a good playoff run as we'll be playing against much of the teams we played this season.

I really don't think Kubiak much cares what their record is this season, so long as they make the playoffs. Mike Shanahan used to say: "10-6 and get into the playoffs and anything can happen."

He's right of course. Three out of the last 6 SB winners were 10-6: Ravens, Packers and Giants all barely made the playoffs and two of the three were the 6th seed wild-cards.

What matters is being able to go on the road to Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indy or New England in January and being able to win with a powerful defense and being able to run the ball effectively in bad weather - like the Giants did to the Patriots twice.

The last three years the Broncos went 13-3, 13-3 and 12-4 and what did that do for us? Two playoff wins and a SB blowout loss. And we're done worrying about the weather (OMG! Will it be windy, because if so then Peyton can't throw effectively and the team has little chance)?

So, yes Peyton has to play well, and the team has to play well, but not in September. How Peyton and the team do in January will be the test.

Frankly, even if they split their first 4 games they'll be fine - so long as they continue to get better, especially on the OL, and Peyton becomes more comfortable in the new system and they can stay healthy.

[Simple Jaded]

Whether they would be 6-10 I don't know, but I think the idea is that exhibition games simply aren't a good measure of how a QB will do in the regular season. Teams don't game-plan to stop Brock during the preseason by attacking his weaknesses. There is no regular season game film on him, and nobody has a clue how he'd do.

I mean Bradley Van Pelt looked great in the 4th game of the preseason too a few times, for all that mattered.

But, QBs who are starting their first NFL season almost always struggle. Even Andrew Luck didn't do great his first year. Maybe the team would still make the playoffs, but to expect the Broncos to contend for a Superbowl with a QB who's never started a meaningful game before just because he looked (sort of) good in the preseason is beyond silly.

Winning a SB this season depends on Peyton Manning.

If Osweiler stunk it up in the preseason you'd be talking about how that proves one of your theories is absolute fact.

[TXBRONC]

Whether they would be 6-10 I don't know, but I think the idea is that exhibition games simply aren't a good measure of how a QB will do in the regular season. Teams don't game-plan to stop Brock during the preseason by attacking his weaknesses. There is no regular season game film on him, and nobody has a clue how he'd do.

I mean Bradley Van Pelt looked great in the 4th game of the preseason too a few times, for all that mattered.

But, QBs who are starting their first NFL season almost always struggle. Even Andrew Luck didn't do great his first year. Maybe the team would still make the playoffs, but to expect the Broncos to contend for a Superbowl with a QB who's never started a meaningful game before just because he looked (sort of) good in the preseason is beyond silly.

Winning a SB this season depends on Peyton Manning.

I don't remember BVP looking good in a couple of 4th preseason games. I also remember BVP getting into a regular season game and absolutely nothing. Osweiler on the other hand has actually completed passes in real game and has actually thrown a td pass.

Cugel what Barnwell said has nothing with Osweiler in preseason it was his absolute worst case senario where the wheels come completely off. If Manning was out because of injury doesn't mean the team would fall apart.

[Northman]

I don't remember BVP looking good in a couple of 4th preseason games. I also remember BVP getting into a regular season game and absolutely nothing. Osweiler on the other hand has actually completed passes in real game and has actually thrown a td pass.

Cugel what Barnwell said has nothing with Osweiler in preseason it was his absolute worst case senario where the wheels come completely off. If Manning was out because of injury doesn't mean the team would fall apart.

An advantage Denver has is its defense this year. If Manning can go out there vs the Ravens and play as crappy as he did i have no doubt we could still make the playoffs with Brock. How far would we get? Probably not far but with this defense he could easily game manage (if it came to really doing that which i doubt) this team to the playoffs.

[TXBRONC]

An advantage Denver has is its defense this year. If Manning can go out there vs the Ravens and play as crappy as he did i have no doubt we could still make the playoffs with Brock. How far would we get? Probably not far but with this defense he could easily game manage (if it came to really doing that which i doubt) this team to the playoffs.

Teams will crowd the line of scrimmage and dare Osweiler to throw over the top and if he hits those they'll back off. Actually the Ravens did that to Manning and he missed on two or three passes over the top. Two of those passes would have scored touchdowns if I'm not mistaken.

[TXBRONC]

If Osweiler stunk it up in the preseason you'd be talking about how that proves one of your theories is absolute fact.

Cug might have done that but he's ok. He's not as cool as you but not many are.

[CrazyHorse]

Pretty sure a big part of that has to do with this team putting on the big fluff in the last 4 playoff games they were eliminated from instead of actually staying competitive, so there should be a big question everywhere of is this team tough enough to fight in the biggest games possible.

If it wasn't for Moore and some questionable calls we would have beat the Ravens.

[Simple Jaded]

Cug might have done that but he's ok. He's not as cool as you but not many are.

I am pretty cool.

[G_Money]

I am pretty cool.

You're aight.

[Ravage!!!]

If it wasn't for Moore and some questionable calls we would have beat the Ravens.

You have to realize that silk never sees anything other than the most negatives on the field....always.

[Buff]

If it wasn't for Moore and some questionable calls we would have beat the Ravens.

If your aunt had a dick she would be your uncle.

[G_Money]

If your aunt had a dick she would be your uncle.

Not necessarily. Get with the times, Buff.

[DenBronx]

Pretty sure a big part of that has to do with this team putting on the big fluff in the last 4 playoff games they were eliminated from instead of actually staying competitive, so there should be a big question everywhere of is this team tough enough to fight in the biggest games possible.

If it wasn't for Moore and some questionable calls we would have beat the Ravens.


We should have won that game, regardless of Moore. That loss still stings because we would have smashed the 49ers. That was our year.

Dammit!!!!!