Per Andrew Mason and PFT, Kubiak will have Director of Analytics on his headset during games.

[BroncoWave]

I'm on my phone so it's hard for me to copy the tweet over, but I absolutely love this. Been saying for years more coaches should do this. Well help so much in determining what do to in situations that don't necessarily come up that often. Will also be a huge help in deciding to go for a fourth down or punt.

[BroncoWave]

Here is the tweet.

https://twitter.com/MaseDenver/status/630743690256842752?s=09

[Buff]

This should be a nice departure from John Fox's methodology, which was just a flow chart where all possible scenarios resulted in a punt.

[MOtorboat]

It would be interesting to know what the league average is for going for it on fourth down to see if the Broncos' increase at all at all because of this. Likewise, you'd have to think this would lead to much more passing, as pass plays average more yards than running plays.

[BroncoWave]

Funny article here

http://deadspin.com/the-broncos-will-try-to-cut-down-on-in-game-coaching-st-1723095049?utm_campaign=socialflow_deadspin_twitte r&utm_source=deadspin_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow

[G_Money]

http://www.pulju.net/images/products/juliste-never-tell-me-the-odds_orig.jpg

[CoachChaz]

With this O-line? I'm guessing punt comes up more often than not.

[TXBRONC]

With this O-line? I'm guessing punt comes up more often than not.

We'll see.

[G_Money]

With this O-line? I'm guessing punt comes up more often than not.

Just make sure there's a "stretcher" option on the spreadsheet.

Also, our 3-step-drop throw % could be really... impressive during the first few games. That "gelling" phenomenon needs to happen quickly along the OL.

Once we GET it we should be all right, assuming our ramshackle front in fact has the talent we're betting it has. But getting there could be a damn mess in the early going.

[TXBRONC]

Just make sure there's a "stretcher" option on the spreadsheet.

Also, our 3-step-drop throw % could be really... impressive during the first few games. That "gelling" phenomenon needs to happen quickly along the OL.

Once we GET it we should be all right, assuming our ramshackle front in fact has the talent we're betting it has. But getting there could be a damn mess in the early going.

Historically I think Kubiak has been pretty successful at putting together solid offenses.

[CoachChaz]

Historically I think Kubiak has been pretty successful at putting together solid offense.

I have faith that long term, the OL will at least be decent. But like G said...getting to that point could be scary.

[TXBRONC]

I have faith that long term, the OL will at least be decent. But like G said...getting to that point could be scary.

True, but even with really bad offensive lines Manning has always found a way to manage it.

[G_Money]

Shanahan used to want to sit rookies for a year just because of how complicated our ZBS line calls were. We're trying to start at least 2 from Day One of this scheme change. If we have to, we have to. As long as we don't break Ty and company in the process, we do what we have to do. The young guys on the line will have to learn in the fire.

Ty can't pull a George Foster on us, though. Manning survived without Clady for one year, but I don't want to survive - I wanna win. We'll get people blocked, I have no doubt. If we have to put Duncan at FB and go with two TE sets, we will.

Then we just hope our defense is what everyone is gushing that is looks like under Wade. Unlike our offensive scheme, his defensive one is relatively simple to grasp. The power is in the execution.

We may have to win ugly at first to win big later. Or maybe the growing pains will all sort themselves out by the end of preseason for the OL. As long as Peyton is still upright and healthy and we're winning, I'll take it however I can get it.

[VonDoom]

I'm on my phone so it's hard for me to copy the tweet over, but I absolutely love this. Been saying for years more coaches should do this. Well help so much in determining what do to in situations that don't necessarily come up that often. Will also be a huge help in deciding to go for a fourth down or punt.

I've been buried at work today but I just saw this and was coming on here to post it. This is a really, really cool idea. If nothing else, it should help the coach make some tough decisions in real time. Hopefully it will see us become more aggressive when it's warranted.

[TXBRONC]

Shanahan used to want to sit rookies for a year just because of how complicated our ZBS line calls were. We're trying to start at least 2 from Day One of this scheme change. If we have to, we have to. As long as we don't break Ty and company in the process, we do what we have to do. The young guys on the line will have to learn in the fire.

Ty can't pull a George Foster on us, though. Manning survived without Clady for one year, but I don't want to survive - I wanna win. We'll get people blocked, I have no doubt. If we have to put Duncan at FB and go with two TE sets, we will.

Then we just hope our defense is what everyone is gushing that is looks like under Wade. Unlike our offensive scheme, his defensive one is relatively simple to grasp. The power is in the execution.

We may have to win ugly at first to win big later. Or maybe the growing pains will all sort themselves out by the end of preseason for the OL. As long as Peyton is still upright and healthy and we're winning, I'll take it however I can get it.

Sambrillo having to go up against Ware everyday is helpful.

I'm not whistling past the graveyard I realize it's going to take time and it wouldn't surprise in the least if Denver has to win ugly at first. In fact, if I were to place bet it would be on Denver having to win ugly at first.

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

This should be a nice departure from John Fox's methodology, which was just a flow chart where all possible scenarios resulted in a punt.

"Every drive should end with a kick."

[BroncoWave]

One thing that does concern me is that the first time the guy tells Kubes to go for it on 4th and we don't convert, he'll stop listening to him. This will only work if they do it every time and let the odds play out over the long term.

[TXBRONC]

One thing that does concern me is that the first time the guy tells Kubes to go for it on 4th and we don't convert, he'll stop listening to him. This will only work if they do it every time and let the odds play out over the long term.

Come on BTB you can't speak for Kubiak.

[Davii]

I'm on my phone so it's hard for me to copy the tweet over, but I absolutely love this. Been saying for years more coaches should do this. Well help so much in determining what do to in situations that don't necessarily come up that often. Will also be a huge help in deciding to go for a fourth down or punt.

I think it's a great idea. Why don't more coaches do it?

[Davii]

It would be interesting to know what the league average is for going for it on fourth down to see if the Broncos' increase at all at all because of this. Likewise, you'd have to think this would lead to much more passing, as pass plays average more yards than running plays.

Is that an Oxford "at all"?

[MOtorboat]

Is that an Oxford "at all"?

Nice edit.

[Davii]

One thing that does concern me is that the first time the guy tells Kubes to go for it on 4th and we don't convert, he'll stop listening to him. This will only work if they do it every time and let the odds play out over the long term.

Doesn't concern me a bit. Kubes wouldn't bring in a stats guy if he had no clue how it all works. I'm certain he understands statistical probability going in.

[MOtorboat]

Doesn't concern me a bit. Kubes wouldn't bring in a stats guy if he had no clue how it all works. I'm certain he understands statistical probability going in.

A number of baseball teams have entire analytics departments and routinely don't listen to them, so I would say it's a valid concern.

[Davii]

A number of baseball teams have entire analytics departments and routinely don't listen to them, so I would say it's a valid concern.

I'm not disagreeing that he won't always take the advice, but it's a tool.

[BroncoWave]

Come on BTB you can't speak for Kubiak.

I think you are misunderstanding my post. I'm not saying he definitely will ignore the guy. I'm just saying it could be a possibility if he gets one or two wrong, as it might be human nature to revert back to his normal coaching instincts. I have no idea what he will do, but I really do hope he utilizes him as much as possible.

[BroncoWave]

I think it's a great idea. Why don't more coaches do it?

Because they are scared to death of failing to convert on 4th down in a big moment and getting crucified for it. Honestly, I think they would get crucified less for trying and failing than they do for pussing out and punting.

[Davii]

Because they are scared to death of failing to convert on 4th down in a big moment and getting crucified for it. Honestly, I think they would get crucified less for trying and failing than they do for pussing out and punting.

Hopefully he uses it as a tool and not a crutch or someone to ignore.

[TXBRONC]

I think you are misunderstanding my post. I'm not saying he definitely will ignore the guy. I'm just saying it could be a possibility if he gets one or two wrong, as it might be human nature to revert back to his normal coaching instincts. I have no idea what he will do, but I really do hope he utilizes him as much as possible.

Fair enough but honestly I don't think if it doesn't work one or two that he would pitch the whole thing.

[BroncoWave]

Fair enough but honestly I don't think if it doesn't work one or two that he would pitch the whole thing.

I don't think he'll pitch the whole thing either, but it will be interesting to see if he has the guts to go for it on a 4th down late in a playoff game when we are tied.

[Davii]

I don't think he'll pitch the whole thing either, but it will be interesting to see if he has the guts to go for it on a 4th down late in a playoff game when we are tied.

Depends. 4th and 4 on our side of the 50? Zero chance. 4th and 2 barely outside fg range? Maybe.

[BroncoWave]

Depends. 4th and 4 on our side of the 50? Zero chance. 4th and 2 barely outside fg range? Maybe.

My post was assuming the statistically correct call is to go for it. Regardless, the fact that he is open to this at all is a GREAT sign. NFL coaches are retarded when it comes to what to do in certain game situations, and Kubiak is doing something about it.

[CrazyHorse]

I've always thought it would be a great idea to use a a computer algorithm to help pick plays based on probability. Seems we might be on to something with this. The only downside I can see is losing the element of surprise.

[LawDog]

This should be a nice departure from John Fox's methodology, which was just a flow chart where all possible scenarios resulted in a punt.

And the related graph where the likelihood of reversal is inversely proportional to the odds of throwing a challenge flag.

[wayninja]

As soon as I read about this in the news, I immediately thought of Broncowave. Boy!, I said, I bet he'll LOVE this. Especially with the mention of the UC Berkeley study!

[BroncoWave]

As soon as I read about this in the news, I immediately thought of Broncowave. Boy!, I said, I bet he'll LOVE this. Especially with the mention of the UC Berkeley study!

Everyone should love smart decision making. This could potentially make a huge difference for our team. No more mind-numbingly decisions to punt in situations where we should so obviously go for it.

[wayninja]

Everyone should love smart decision making. This could potentially make a huge difference for our team. No more mind-numbingly decisions to punt in situations where we should so obviously go for it.

Well, just knowing the stats doesn't mean you'll actually make the call... I guess we will see.

[tomjonesrocks]

Saw this today on how this guy affected decisions in the last game. Mildly interesting if you're desperate for a quick Broncos read:
http://www.denverbroncos.com/news-and-blogs/article-1/With-proper-use-of-timeouts-Broncos-pass-Game-Management-101/01ad4b35-d7c3-45a3-af59-b75fa3bdfa72

[BroncoWave]

That is awesome! Glad to see Kubes is legitimately using him for gameday decisions.

[Joel]

Saw this today on how this guy affected decisions in the last game. Mildly interesting if you're desperate for a quick Broncos read:
http://www.denverbroncos.com/news-and-blogs/article-1/With-proper-use-of-timeouts-Broncos-pass-Game-Management-101/01ad4b35-d7c3-45a3-af59-b75fa3bdfa72
Using time outs on defense (when the bad guys control the clock) rather than offense (when spikes and hurry ups are available) is hardly novel; it may even be why teams get 3 time outs/half. That article's less an example of Kubiaks brilliance than a reminder letting John Fox coach a team is slightly worse than just using the Madden AI instead. ;)

[Ravage!!!]

Using time outs on defense (when the bad guys control the clock) rather than offense (when spikes and hurry ups are available) is hardly novel; it may even be why teams get 3 time outs/half. That article's less an example of Kubiaks brilliance than a reminder letting John Fox coach a team is slightly worse than just using the Madden AI instead. ;)

Yeah.. I gotta be honest. I think we see this done every week, and didn't give it a second glance when we called a time-out before the 2 minute warning, as its pretty much the norm. So although it seems that "analytics" were used, its more of just knowing the game of football, to be honest. Wasn't exactly 'game breaking' revelation to save the clock before the 2 minute warning.

[Joel]

Yeah.. I gotta be honest. I think we see this done every week, and didn't give it a second glance when we called a time-out before the 2 minute warning, as its pretty much the norm. So although it seems that "analytics" were used, its more of just knowing the game of football, to be honest. Wasn't exactly 'game breaking' revelation to save the clock before the 2 minute warning.
Except to John Fox, the NFLs living reminder conventional wisdom is often long on the first and short on the second. In fairness, my (admittedly subjective) recollection is that saving second half time outs for final desperation drives was the norm until the late '80s, when a certain book pointed out how much more useful they are defensively. ;)

The bottom line is that trailing offenses can stop the clock several other ways and use hurry up, but, after a tackle in bounds, trailing defenses can only call time or watch helplessly for 40 seconds until the next snap. It's the big thing I miss about the 30 second play clock: The 2:00 warning didn't automatically end the game for defenses trailing with no time outs left.

[BroncoWave]

Yeah.. I gotta be honest. I think we see this done every week, and didn't give it a second glance when we called a time-out before the 2 minute warning, as its pretty much the norm. So although it seems that "analytics" were used, its more of just knowing the game of football, to be honest. Wasn't exactly 'game breaking' revelation to save the clock before the 2 minute warning.

In this example, sure, it's pretty obvious, but I do still think overall we have seen WAY better in-game decision making from Kubes than we did from Fox. Whether it's because of this analytics guy or because Kubes is better with these kinds of decisions, it's a good thing to see either way.

[TXBRONC]

In this example, sure, it's pretty obvious, but I do still think overall we have seen WAY better in-game decision making from Kubes than we did from Fox. Whether it's because of this analytics guy or because Kubes is better with these kinds of decisions, it's a good thing to see either way.

It's probably a combination of the two Kubiak being better at it naturally and also having the analytics guy on staff.

[Simple Jaded]

Using time outs on defense (when the bad guys control the clock) rather than offense (when spikes and hurry ups are available) is hardly novel; it may even be why teams get 3 time outs/half. That article's less an example of Kubiaks brilliance than a reminder letting John Fox coach a team is slightly worse than just using the Madden AI instead. ;)

John Fox reads The Hidden Game of Football religiously.

[Joel]

John Fox reads The Hidden Game of Football religiously.
Or, if true, he reads it and then does the exact OPPOSITE of what it suggests (gotta admit, that would explain a lot, even while raising a whole other set of questions.) It's hard to get "any drive that ends in a kick is a good one" from "never kick on 4th and <6, nor ANY time inside the opponents 10."