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View Full Version : Vegas Rates Broncos Odds to Win Superbowl 50 in Feb. 2016



Cugel
02-06-2015, 04:33 PM
I thought it would be interesting to see what Vegas thinks of Peyton Manning.

Here's the early Vegas odds on the Broncos 2016 SB chances:


NFL: Here’s Who Vegas Is Picking to Win Super Bowl 50 (http://wallstcheatsheet.com/sports/nfl-heres-who-vegas-is-picking-to-win-super-bowl-50.html/?a=viewall)

4. Denver Broncos

Odds: 10/1

The Broncos will have a new coaching staff in 2015 following another disappointing early playoff exit under John Fox. Although all signs point to Peyton Manning returning in 2015, the five-time NFL MVP has yet to commit to another season in Denver. The Broncos defense was exceptional in 2014 – they were actually the best defensive unit in the league according to Pro Football Focus – and have the personnel to easily transition into new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips’ 3-4 scheme. The key to the Broncos having a legitimate chance to win Super Bowl 50 likely revolves around how well their offense performs under new head coach Gary Kubiak.


The Seahawks are favored at 5-1 (hah! SB loser's curse), the Patriots are next at at 7-1, Green Bay is at 8-1 and the Broncos are 4th at 10-1. Meanwhile the Colts and Dallas are tied at 14-1. The Cardinals, Steelers and Ravens are at 25-1.

For all the fans who think Peyton should retire, what do you think the odds makers would say about the Broncos chances with Brock Osweiler at QB? Well, the Bills have a pretty good team, but E.J. Manuel at QB - so they are at 50-1. Something like that.

So, Broncos with Peyton - 10-1. Broncos with Brock - 50-1. 5 times as much chance of winning the SB with Peyton.

Northman
02-06-2015, 04:41 PM
Good thing the Seahawks didnt pay attention to odds when they first put Wilson into the lineup. They might of shit the bed.

BroncoWave
02-06-2015, 04:42 PM
No way I'd bet Denver on those odds. Maybe 25/1 I'd bite.

VonDoom
02-06-2015, 04:45 PM
I read somewhere that the Broncos without Peyton would be 40-1 odds. In a funny twist, I believe those are the same odds as the Chiefs and Chargers right now. So even without Peyton, Vegas assumes we're as good as our closest rivals.

Cugel
02-06-2015, 05:08 PM
Good thing the Seahawks didnt pay attention to odds when they first put Wilson into the lineup. They might of shit the bed.

:laugh: Well, they had drafted Wilson as a backup and signed veteran Matt Flynn. They thought they had gotten a developmental QB who would sit for a couple of years while learning to play QB in the NFL behind Flynn.

That is exactly what you might reasonably expect with a 3rd round QB. They are developmental guys and the chances any of them actually develop into Franchise QBs are less than 1%.

But, rather like Denver when Terrell Davis came to town they quickly discovered that they had a lot more in Russell than they bargained for. He came prepared from day 1 and took learning the system seriously. He's smart and dedicated and wildly exceeded expectations.

So much so that they sent Flynn packing and made him the starter.

If any team would have had the remotest idea how good Wilson would be he would have been the #2 overall pick behind Luck, instead of RG III. If the Broncos had had any idea he'd play in 2 SBs they would have selected him in the 2nd round instead of Osweiler.

Cugel
02-06-2015, 05:14 PM
I read somewhere that the Broncos without Peyton would be 40-1 odds. In a funny twist, I believe those are the same odds as the Chiefs and Chargers right now. So even without Peyton, Vegas assumes we're as good as our closest rivals.

Well, it would be tough to beat Phillip Rivers and the Chargers with Osweiler, but the Chiefs? I'd say we could beat them with Curtis Painter at QB. And he's out of the league now.

Northman
02-06-2015, 05:14 PM
:laugh: Well, they had drafted Wilson as a backup and signed veteran Matt Flynn. They thought they had gotten a developmental QB who would sit for a couple of years while learning to play QB in the NFL behind Flynn.

That is exactly what you might reasonably expect with a 3rd round QB. They are developmental guys and the chances any of them actually develop into Franchise QBs are less than 1%.

But, rather like Denver when Terrell Davis came to town they quickly discovered that they had a lot more in Russell than they bargained for. He came prepared from day 1 and took learning the system seriously. He's smart and dedicated and wildly exceeded expectations.

So much so that they sent Flynn packing and made him the starter.

If any team (especially the Broncos) would have had the remotest idea how good Wilson would be he would have been the #2 overall pick instead of RG III.

True.

But that kind of is the point im trying to make. Cant just look on the surface of a draft pick and assume they will suck. Had the Hawks looked at their odds of winning a SB because Wilson was a 3rd round draft pick and put too much stock into it they would of been idiots. Same with Big Ben, i dont think anyone saw them winning a SB in his second year. Brock could turn out to be a gem for us, just have to wait and see if of course Manning doesnt come back.

BroncoWave
02-06-2015, 05:18 PM
True.

But that kind of is the point im trying to make. Cant just look on the surface of a draft pick and assume they will suck. Had the Hawks looked at their odds of winning a SB because Wilson was a 3rd round draft pick and put too much stock into it they would of been idiots. Same with Big Ben, i dont think anyone saw them winning a SB in his second year. Brock could turn out to be a gem for us, just have to wait and see if of course Manning doesnt come back.

Who is putting too much stock into odds? He just posted a thread mentioning them. Jesus, North.

Northman
02-06-2015, 05:19 PM
Who is putting too much stock into odds? He just posted a thread mentioning them. Jesus, North.

?

All i did was mention that the odds mean very little. What is your issue?

Buff
02-06-2015, 05:20 PM
I thought it would be interesting to see what Vegas thinks of Peyton Manning.

Here's the early Vegas odds on the Broncos 2016 SB chances:



The Seahawks are favored at 5-1 (hah! SB loser's curse), the Patriots are next at at 7-1, Green Bay is at 8-1 and the Broncos are 4th at 10-1. Meanwhile the Colts and Dallas are tied at 14-1. The Cardinals, Steelers and Ravens are at 25-1.

For all the fans who think Peyton should retire, what do you think the odds makers would say about the Broncos chances with Brock Osweiler at QB? Well, the Bills have a pretty good team, but E.J. Manuel at QB - so they are at 50-1. Something like that.

So, Broncos with Peyton - 10-1. Broncos with Brock - 50-1. 5 times as much chance of winning the SB with Peyton.

It's such a silly argument you present here. Of course our chances to win the Super Bowl are higher with a sure-fire HOF 5-time MVP QB than with a guy who has never started meaningful games in the NFL...

But the issue is not whether Manning is better than Osweiler - of course he is. The question is whether Manning still has the physical ability to beat the truly elite defenses in this league. I have questions about whether his style of football - limited arm strength, limited mobility, overly reliant on timing and finesse - can ever beat the best teams in the playoffs.

It's such a tired argument to hear "Manning can still play!" Of course he can - but is he still good enough to win a championship? I have my doubts.