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Cugel
01-13-2015, 01:48 AM
There's been a lot of loose talk from fans about "Peyton should hang it up." Well, he very well might do it. If he does, then Elway clearly wants to give Brock Osweiler a chance to prove if he can be a Super Bowl caliber QB. But, the grim meat hook reality is that Osweiler has about a 2% chance of being any good and 98% chance of sucking - statistically speaking.

Here's the record since 2001 when Tom Brady was taken in the 6th round of QBs drafted at #57 or later in the 2nd round (Brock Osweiler's pick). Of course I could make this list look even worse if I included all the first round busts, even #1 overall busts like David Carr, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell:


2013
3 73 Mike Glennon QB North Carolina State Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4 98 Matt Barkley QB USC Philadelphia Eagles
4 110 Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse New York Giants
4 112 Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas Oakland Raiders
4 115 Landry Jones QB Oklahoma Pittsburgh Steelers
7 221 Brad Sorensen QB Southern Utah San Diego Chargers
7 234 Zac Dysert QB Miami (Ohio) Denver Broncos
7 237 B.J. Daniels QB South Florida San Francisco 49ers
7 249 Sean Renfree QB Duke Atlanta Falcons


2012
2 57 Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State Denver Broncos
3 75 Russell Wilson QB Wisconsin Seattle Seahawks
3 88 Nick Foles QB Arizona Philadelphia Eagles
4 102 Kirk Cousins QB Michigan State Washington Redskins
6 185 Ryan Lindley QB San Diego State Arizona Cardinals
7 243 B.J. Coleman QB Tennessee-Chattanooga Green Bay Packers
7 253 Chandler Harnish QB Northern Illinois Indianapolis Colts

Nick Foles has looked pretty decent so far, but the Eagles haven't won anything with him yet. Has potential, but then RG III looked pretty good for a while. . . .

2011

3 74 Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas New England Patriots
5 135 Ricky Stanzi QB Iowa Kansas City Chiefs
5 152 T.J Yates QB North Carolina Houston Texans
5 160 Nathan Enderle QB Idaho Chicago Bears
6 180 Tyrod Taylor QB Virginia Tech Baltimore Ravens
7 208 Greg McElroy QB Alabama New York Jets


2010
2 48 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame Carolina Panthers
3 85 Colt McCoy QB Texas Cleveland Browns
4 122 Mike Kafka QB Northwestern Philadelphia Eagles
5 155 John Skelton QB Fordham Arizona Cardinals
5 168 Jonathan Crompton QB Tennessee San Diego Chargers
6 176 Rusty Smith QB Florida Atlantic Tennessee Titans
6 181 Dan LeFevour QB Central Michigan Chicago Bears
6 199 Joe Webb QB Alabama-Birmingham Minnesota Vikings
6 204 Tony Pike QB Cincinnati Carolina Panthers
7 209 Levi Brown QB Troy Buffalo Bills
7 239 Sean Canfield QB Oregon State New Orleans Saints
7 250 Zac Robinson QB Oklahoma State New England Patriots


2010
2 44 Pat White QB West Virginia Miami Dolphins
4 101 Stephen McGee QB Texas A&M Dallas Cowboys
5 151 Rhett Bomar QB Sam Houston State New York Giants
5 171 Nate Davis QB Ball State San Francisco 49ers
6 174 Tom Brandstater QB Fresno State Denver Broncos
6 178 Mike Teel QB Rutgers Seattle Seahawks
6 196 Keith Null QB West Texas A&M St. Louis Rams
6 201 Curtis Painter QB Purdue Indianapolis Colts


2008
2 56 Brian Brohm QB Louisville Green Bay Packers
2 57 Chad Henne QB Michigan Miami Dolphins
3 94 Kevin O'Connell QB San Diego State New England Patriots
5 137 John David Booty QB USC Minnesota Vikings
5 156 Dennis Dixon QB Oregon Pittsburgh Steelers
5 160 Josh Johnson QB San Diego Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5 162 Erik Ainge QB Tennessee New York Jets
6 186 Colt Brennan QB Hawaii Washington Redskins
6 198 Andre Woodson QB Kentucky New York Giants
7 209 Matt Flynn QB Louisiana State Green Bay Packers
7 223 Alex Brink QB Washington State Houston Texans


2007
2 36 Kevin Kolb QB Houston Philadelphia Eagles
2 40 John Beck QB Brigham Young Miami Dolphins
2 43 Drew Stanton QB Michigan State Detroit Lions
3 92 Trent Edwards QB Stanford Buffalo Bills
5 151 Jeff Rowe QB Nevada-Reno Cincinnati Bengals
5 174 Troy Smith QB Ohio State Baltimore Ravens
6 205 Jordan Palmer QB Texas-El Paso Washington Redskins
7 217 Tyler Thigpen QB Coastal Carolina Minnesota Vikings

And some years there's just nobody at all no matter what draft pick you have:


2006
1 3 Vince Young QB Texas Tennessee Titans
1 10 Matt Leinart QB USC Arizona Cardinals
1 11 Jay Cutler QB Vanderbilt Denver Broncos
2 49 Kellen Clemens QB Oregon New York Jets
2 64 Tarvaris Jackson QB Alabama State Minnesota Vikings
3 81 Charlie Whitehurst QB Clemson San Diego Chargers
3 85 Brodie Croyle QB Alabama Kansas City Chiefs
5 148 Ingle Martin QB Furman Green Bay Packers
5 164 Omar Jacobs QB Bowling Green State Pittsburgh Steelers
6 194 Bruce Gradkowski QB Toledo Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7 223 D.J. Shockley QB Georgia Atlanta Falcons


2005
3 67 Charlie Frye QB Akron Cleveland Browns
3 69 Andrew Walter QB Arizona State Oakland Raiders
3 85 David Greene QB Georgia Seattle Seahawks
4 106 Kyle Orton QB Purdue Chicago Bears
4 121 Stefan LeFors QB Louisville Carolina Panthers
5 145 Dan Orlovsky QB Connecticut Detroit Lions
5 152 Adrian McPherson QB Florida State New Orleans Saints
6 213 Derek Anderson QB Oregon State Baltimore Ravens
7 230 Matt Cassel QB USC New England Patriots
7 250 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Harvard St. Louis Rams




2004
3 90 Matt Schaub QB Virginia Atlanta Falcons
4 106 Luke McCown QB Louisiana Tech Cleveland Browns
5 148 Craig Krenzel QB Ohio State Chicago Bears
6 185 Andy Hall QB Delaware Philadelphia Eagles
6 187 Josh Harris QB Bowling Green State Baltimore Ravens
6 193 Jim Sorgi QB Wisconsin Indianapolis Colts
6 201 Jeff Smoker QB Michigan State St. Louis Rams
7 202 John Navarre QB Michigan Arizona Cardinals
7 217 Cody Pickett QB Washington San Francisco 49ers
7 218 Casey Bramlet QB Wyoming Cincinnati Bengals
7 225 Matt Mauck QB Louisiana State Denver Broncos
7 248 B.J. Symons QB Texas Tech Houston Texans
7 250 Bradlee Van Pelt QB Colorado State Denver Broncos



2003
3 88 Dave Ragone QB Louisville Houston Texans
3 97 Chris Simms QB Texas Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4 110 Seneca Wallace QB Iowa State Seattle Seahawks
5 163 Brian St. Pierre QB Boston College Pittsburgh Steelers
6 192 Drew Henson QB Michigan Houston Texans
6 200 Brooks Bollinger QB Wisconsin New York Jets
6 201 Kliff Kingsbury QB Texas Tech New England Patriots
7 232 Gibran Hamdan QB Indiana Washington Redskins
7 241 Ken Dorsey QB Miami (Fla.) San Francisco 49ers


2002
3 81 Josh McCown QB Sam Houston State Arizona Cardinals
4 108 David Garrard QB East Carolina Jacksonville Jaguars
4 117 Rohan Davey QB Louisiana State New England Patriots
5 137 Randy Fasani QB Stanford Carolina Panthers
5 158 Kurt Kittner QB Illinois Atlanta Falcons
5 163 Brandon Doman QB Brigham Young San Francisco 49ers
5 164 Craig Nall QB Northwestern State-Louisiana Green Bay Packers
6 186 J.T. O'Sullivan QB California-Davis New Orleans Saints
7 216 Seth Burford QB Cal Poly-S.L.O. San Diego Chargers
7 232 Jeff Kelly QB Southern Mississippi Seattle Seahawks
7 235 Ronald Curry QB North Carolina Oakland Raiders
7 236 Wes Pate QB Stephen F. Austin St. Baltimore Ravens



2001
2 59 Marques Tuiasosopo QB Washington Oakland Raiders
4 106 Chris Weinke QB Florida State Carolina Panthers
4 109 Sage Rosenfels QB Iowa State Washington Redskins
4 125 Jesse Palmer QB Florida New York Giants
5 149 Mike McMahon QB Rutgers Detroit Lions
5 155 A.J. Feeley QB Oregon Philadelphia Eagles
6 172 Josh Booty QB Louisiana State Seattle Seahawks
6 177 Josh Heupel QB Oklahoma Miami Dolphins

That's a long grim list people. There are also a couple of guys like undrafted Tony Romo if you want to add him to the list of successes. But, to be fair you'd have to list all the undrafted QBs who were signed by teams at some point, and that would make the odds even worse.

Life is likely to be a very long and grim time for the Broncos after Peyton hangs it up. If fans want to have some kind of blind faith that it's going to be OK, then go ahead. But statistically, it's about like betting the house, the farm, the wife, the kids and the family dog on one spin of the roulette wheel and expecting to win big. It could happen, but almost certainly won't. That's what builds all those billion $ casinos in Vegas - blind hope.

Simple Jaded
01-13-2015, 01:57 AM
The only thing I have for the Isle of Capri is blind rage, I never win there.

Cugel
01-13-2015, 02:02 AM
That's kind of my point. People can enjoy gambling (if you don't bet more than you can afford to lose). But, would any sane person bet everything they own on one spin of the wheel and expect to walk away happy?

Simple Jaded
01-13-2015, 02:08 AM
That's kind of my point. People can enjoy gambling (if you don't bet more than you can afford to lose). But, would any sane person bet everything they own on one spin of the wheel and expect to walk away happy?

I think the only way Denver is spinning that wheel is if they're forced to.

MOtorboat
01-13-2015, 02:13 AM
I thought Osweiler was going to sign a massive contract with another team. Did I miss something?

NightTerror218
01-13-2015, 02:56 AM
You throw all those stats out there. But what is not factored into equation his being groomed for three years and learning how to be a pro from manning. Manning helped him in film study not so much in practice and let the coaches do that. I would give Oz a much better chance then 2%.

Northman
01-13-2015, 05:19 AM
Are the odds against Oz like it is for most QB's? Yep. But the odds are against every QB taken even first rounders so its kind of a moot point. In the end you still need someone in place to take over once the HOF is done.

DenBronx
01-13-2015, 05:42 AM
I don't think Alex Smith was a bust.

Joel
01-13-2015, 06:23 AM
You throw all those stats out there. But what is not factored into equation his being groomed for three years and learning how to be a pro from manning. Manning helped him in film study not so much in practice and let the coaches do that. I would give Oz a much better chance then 2%.
1) Oz is far from the first to understudy a HoF QB; that track record's also depressingly dismal. Sure, Rodgers and Steve Young, but Danny White may be the best after them, and then it goes downhill fast.

2) He's far from the first to understudy MANNING either, and that track record's 100% busts. Where are Jim Sorgi and Curtis Painter now—or ever?

Manning's too busy obsessively working on HIS game to develop a successors, and Oz is on record that he doesn't ask Manning lots of questions, but stays out of the way and waits for Manning to volunteer something. First thing he likely volunteered was something like this "Here's the biggest thing you need to know to succeed on this team, kid: I get EVERY first team practice rep; siddown...." Oz has probably learned as much from Manning as fans who drive down to Dove Valley practices: He has the same view.

He was a dual threat QB coming out of college, with all the raw talent and raw RAW that invariably means, and has done nothing but sit on the bench for three years. Might as well be a 25 rookie dual threat; last time we tried that it worked out great, huh?

Joel
01-13-2015, 06:25 AM
Are the odds against Oz like it is for most QB's? Yep. But the odds are against every QB taken even first rounders so its kind of a moot point. In the end you still need someone in place to take over once the HOF is done.
That's a really good point, and Oz should get a shot if Manning retires, if only because we won't have a great 1st or 2nd round pick to spend on a QB. But I believe Cugels core point is that the odds of quickly finding another franchise QB to succeed Manning are very low with or without Oz in the mix: Get used to mediocrity while we continue the hunt.

Northman
01-13-2015, 06:35 AM
That's a really good point, and Oz should get a shot if Manning retires, if only because we won't have a great 1st or 2nd round pick to spend on a QB. But I believe Cugels core point is that the odds of quickly finding another franchise QB to succeed Manning are very low with or without Oz in the mix: Get used to mediocrity while we continue the hunt.

But again, i wouldnt buy into the "mediocrity" statement. This team isnt run by McDaniels anymore and QB's like Wilson and Flacco while being decent QB's (not HOF'rs) have managed to keep their teams in the playoff hunt for years now so its premature for some people to believe we will all of sudden fall off the face of the earth if Manning leaves. Thats just a silly notion to me.

wayninja
01-13-2015, 08:42 AM
So, we are saying the odds of finding another future HOF'er are low? Interesting.

BroncoJoe
01-13-2015, 08:44 AM
So, we are saying the odds of finding another future HOF'er are low? Interesting.

Who would have thought!

Krugan
01-13-2015, 11:42 AM
Gonna have to go with someone at some point, unless someone found the fountain of youth and can get the old guy a cup.

Whether its this year or next or 2 years, there will have to be a new guy in house.

I would, at this point prefer to have Manning back, 7 games 22 tds 1 int, then something happened, injury or change in game plan, but I fail to see it as "OMG he hit the wall of age".

tripp
01-13-2015, 01:32 PM
I don't need Oz to throw it for 300+ yards and 3+ TD's. I need Oz to make the throws that are essential to driving down a field, to move the sticks, to put the team in a winning position. That means, I expect him to make the 5 yard crossing routes, the odd 20 yard post route, run for the first down if you have space. I'm not asking him to audible out of a run into a vertical passing route and throw it deep for a 60 yard TD. Just do what you need to win the game, and with time he will grow in confidence and will potentially be able to throw 300+ yards and 3+ TD's etc.

When I say all of this, I think of Russell Wilson, someone who does enough to get the job done. His numbers aren't sexy, but they've won him a SB.

Joel
01-13-2015, 02:34 PM
But again, i wouldnt buy into the "mediocrity" statement. This team isnt run by McDaniels anymore and QB's like Wilson and Flacco while being decent QB's (not HOF'rs) have managed to keep their teams in the playoff hunt for years now so its premature for some people to believe we will all of sudden fall off the face of the earth if Manning leaves. Thats just a silly notion to me.
Flacco's a mediocre QB, IMHO, and Seattle only got Wilson because he dropped to the 3rd because of concerns he's a short dual threat QB. The first (and according to many, second) are examples of teams winning SBs despite the lack of a great QB, but it should be noted the Ravens went from 13-3 to 5-11 the year before drafting Flacco. As others have noted, great QBs are hard to find even with great draft picks. Likewise, it IS possible for great teams to succeed with unremarkable QBs, but it's a lot harder given how much of the offense QBs impact.

Stuff like this is why it's a bad idea to abort rebuilds, because the odds of finding a great QB at the top of the 1st round may be long, but it's hard to find them anywhere else. For what it's worth, there doesn't seem to be much statistical difference between QBs drafted at the top and bottom of the first round, in turn a good reason cellar dwellers shouldn't automatically spend their first pick on the first QB who looks promising in the annual crap shoot.

Joel
01-13-2015, 02:35 PM
is that most of our starters are either FAs pushing 30 whom we signed for "win today" mode with Manning, or about to BECOME FAs so we can't fit them all under the cap as their contracts balloon.

Ignoring guys like Talib, Ware and Welker (who may be done now anyway,) we already re-signed Harris (thank God) but it's costing us about half as much as Manning. We've already lost Doom and Decker while franchising Clady, then giving him a huge new contract, and must now find ways to pay DT, Orange Julius and Knighton (and give Marshall a tender; since we signed him off waivers I'm not sure if we'd get compensation for another teaam signing him.) All that without pushing our 2016 cap too high to re-sign Miller and match the huge offers CJ will get if he plays next season as well as this one: Good luck....

Cugel
01-14-2015, 03:08 PM
I thought Osweiler was going to sign a massive contract with another team. Did I miss something?

I still think he will if Peyton returns for 2016 (which is looking rather doubtful at the moment, yes?) Teams are desperate for QBs. And it's not as if the average starting QB salary is less than $15 million a year. He might not get that much, but somebody is going to give him a 1 year contract that will stagger the average fan.

And yes, they'll probably be overpaying. I never said that Brock would be worth that money, just that he'd get paid.

Was Zane Beadles worth a five year, $30 million contract, with $13 million guaranteed (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5833/zane-beadles)?

There was no way in Hell he was worth that kind of money after sucking BAD, but he got it! Do you think that Brock is worth less than Zane Beadles? Seriously? :laugh: And before you say "Yes" Zane's a G and Brock's a QB. So, the correct answer is "no." Period.

Ravage!!!
01-14-2015, 03:38 PM
That's a really good point, and Oz should get a shot if Manning retires, if only because we won't have a great 1st or 2nd round pick to spend on a QB. But I believe Cugels core point is that the odds of quickly finding another franchise QB to succeed Manning are very low with or without Oz in the mix: Get used to mediocrity while we continue the hunt.

Yeah.. but that's a "No Shit" comment. It like saying that "tomorrow is another day." Everyone knows that franchise QBs are hard to find, otherwise, everyone would have one.

Cugel
01-14-2015, 04:12 PM
Flacco's a mediocre QB, IMHO, and Seattle only got Wilson because he dropped to the 3rd because of concerns he's a short dual threat QB. The first (and according to many, second) are examples of teams winning SBs despite the lack of a great QB, but it should be noted the Ravens went from 13-3 to 5-11 the year before drafting Flacco. As others have noted, great QBs are hard to find even with great draft picks. Likewise, it IS possible for great teams to succeed with unremarkable QBs, but it's a lot harder given how much of the offense QBs impact.

Stuff like this is why it's a bad idea to abort rebuilds, because the odds of finding a great QB at the top of the 1st round may be long, but it's hard to find them anywhere else. For what it's worth, there doesn't seem to be much statistical difference between QBs drafted at the top and bottom of the first round, in turn a good reason cellar dwellers shouldn't automatically spend their first pick on the first QB who looks promising in the annual crap shoot.

Flacco DEFINITELY didn't look mediocre in the playoffs this season. He was sensational and twice built 14 point leads against the Patriots that his supposedly great defense blew. He outplayed Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady in 2012, took his team to the Super Bowl, and dominated the 49ers. That game was also a blowout until the power failure reset the game.

He certainly deserved to be the MVP of the 2012 playoffs. Sensational performance.

2013, not so much. 2014 he took them to the playoffs despite the not so sensational record, then once again was great in the playoffs. It's not his fault that they're not in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday.

So, Joe Flacco is absolutely, positively NOT proof that you can win a Super Bowl with a "mediocre" QB. That's flat wrong. And Russell Wilson will next year become the highest paid QB in football.

They're not just handing out over $20 million to the guy because he's "mediocre". He's playing at an elite level.

I vividly remember the shot of the Seahawks sideline in the Denver game this year when Peyton had just engineered a 4th quarter comeback from 14 points down and tied the game sending it into overtime. Richard Sherman looked absolutely shell-shocked on the sideline. He looked like he couldn't believe what happened.

I remember thinking that if Denver won the coin-flip and gave the ball back to Peyton and that offense, that there was just no way Denver could lose that game. The Seahawks defense was totally on their heels.

But, then Seattle won the flip, Wilson came back on the field and just took over. They couldn't stop him. He made plays with his arm, and running for key first downs. They marched right down and scored the winning TD and Peyton never touched the ball.

THAT is what elite QB play looks like. Total confidence, totally in control in a key moment.

He just hasn't done it for 5 or 10 years yet like Tom Brady, so he's not at that level. But, to underestimate Russell Wilson and say he's not an elite QB is just nonsense. He flat is.

Northman
01-14-2015, 04:18 PM
Flacco DEFINITELY didn't look mediocre in the playoffs this season. He was sensational and twice built 14 point leads against the Patriots that his supposedly great defense blew. He outplayed Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady in 2012, took his team to the Super Bowl, and dominated the 49ers. That game was also a blowout until the power failure reset the game.

He certainly deserved to be the MVP of the 2012 playoffs. Sensational performance.

2013, not so much. 2014 he took them to the playoffs despite the not so sensational record, then once again was great in the playoffs. It's not his fault that they're not in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday.

So, Joe Flacco is absolutely, positively NOT proof that you can win a Super Bowl with a "mediocre" QB. That's flat wrong. And Russell Wilson will next year become the highest paid QB in football.

They're not just handing out over $20 million to the guy because he's "mediocre". He's playing at an elite level.

I vividly remember the shot of the Seahawks sideline in the Denver game this year when Peyton had just engineered a 4th quarter comeback from 14 points down and tied the game sending it into overtime. Richard Sherman looked absolutely shell-shocked on the sideline. He looked like he couldn't believe what happened.

I remember thinking that if Denver won the coin-flip and gave the ball back to Peyton and that offense, that there was just no way Denver could lose that game. The Seahawks defense was totally on their heels.

But, then Seattle won the flip, Wilson came back on the field and just took over. They couldn't stop him. He made plays with his arm, and running for key first downs. They marched right down and scored the winning TD and Peyton never touched the ball.

THAT is what elite QB play looks like. Total confidence, totally in control in a key moment.

He just hasn't done it for 5 or 10 years yet like Tom Brady, so he's not at that level. But, to underestimate Russell Wilson and say he's not an elite QB is just nonsense. He flat is.

Wilson is NOT elite. Bwhhahahahahahaaha

OMG. Without that defense the Hawks are NOWHERE near as good and Wilson isnt the type of QB to make players around him better. You are so ******* full of BS its just beyond hysterical at this point.

Cugel
01-14-2015, 04:22 PM
Yeah.. but that's a "No Shit" comment. It like saying that "tomorrow is another day." Everyone knows that franchise QBs are hard to find, otherwise, everyone would have one.

The reason I posted this thread is that "everybody" decidedly does NOT know "that franchise Qbs are hard to find." All the comments on forums, all the talk radio 24/7 since the game has been "Peyton's washed up! The Broncos should move on." And even D-Mac saying on 104.3 The Fan, that he hoped a piece of masonry fell on Peyton's head!

"Peyton's washed up so let's give Brock a chance!" That seems to be the prevailing fan and media sentiment everywhere. And it's flat STUPID! What all these commentators are ignoring is how hard it is to find Peyton's replacement, and how unlikely Brock is to be an adequate replacement, and how long the team might linger in the wilderness - just like Mike Shanahan did between 1999 and 2008.

I personally HATED starting every season KNOWING that the Broncos had no shot at winning the SB. Knowing that if the team somehow managed to get into the playoffs they would run straight into Peyton Manning and be demolished by the Colts with laughable ease (as they were twice in a row).

Then listening to Mike Shanahan saying "10-6 and you get into the playoffs and anything can happen." Well anything can happen if you are 10-6 with Aaron Rogers or Joe Flacco, but 10-6 with Brian Griese or Jay Cutler ain't going to cut it, when you're facing Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, (or now Joe Flacco, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, or Andrew Luck). One of those guys will be in your way.

And, like the Buffalo Bills today, you might have all the pieces. Pretty good team. Great defensive line with Dareus and Mario Williams. But, they have Kyle Orton at QB in the same division with Tom Brady. So, fegetaboutit!

Northman
01-14-2015, 04:27 PM
Kyle retired.

Cugel
01-14-2015, 04:28 PM
Wilson is NOT elite. Bwhhahahahahahaaha

OMG. Without that defense the Hawks are NOWHERE near as good and Wilson isnt the type of QB to make players around him better. You are so ******* full of BS its just beyond hysterical at this point.

Just keep laughing when he's the SB MVP. :coffee:

Ravage!!!
01-14-2015, 04:32 PM
Wilson is NOT elite. Bwhhahahahahahaaha

OMG. Without that defense the Hawks are NOWHERE near as good and Wilson isnt the type of QB to make players around him better. You are so ******* full of BS its just beyond hysterical at this point.

Yeah.. I have to see Wilson on a team where he actually has to win with him throwing the ball. RIght now, he's a VERY Good game controller. He doesn't take chances, and throws the ball away when it needs to be. I really like Wilson, Great guy, great personality, smart guy that obviously knows the game. But until I can see him take the team on the shoulders with his passing, then I'm going to hold off on putting him too high up on the list.

Ravage!!!
01-14-2015, 04:32 PM
Just keep laughing when he's the SB MVP. :coffee:

Didn't Eli win SUper Bowl MVP?

Cugel
01-14-2015, 04:33 PM
Kyle retired.

So, they need another QB. Who will be worse than Orton - who really was mediocre.


[E. J.]Manuel was benched in favor of Kyle Orton early in his second season and [new Bills coach Rex] Ryan would promise Manuel nothing more than an opportunity to be the team’s starting quarterback in 2015. He did say that Manuel “has a lot of traits you look for in a quarterback” and that the Jets saw things they liked heading into the 2013 draft while adding that he’d like to see Manuel use his legs more. In general, it didn’t sound too different that what Ryan had to say about Geno Smith over the last two years.

Mu-ha-ha-ha-ha! That's their plan going forward? E.J. Manuel?

I'd say that proves my point.

Here's the funniest quote:


The offense will feature Ryan’s beloved ground-and-pound, but the coach also said that they would be throwing the ball.

“Are we going to throw? We have Sammy Watkins,” Ryan said. “Why wouldn’t we?

Um, because your QB is E. J. Manuel? :confused:

Northman
01-14-2015, 04:37 PM
Yeah.. I have to see Wilson on a team where he actually has to win with him throwing the ball. RIght now, he's a VERY Good game controller. He doesn't take chances, and throws the ball away when it needs to be. I really like Wilson, Great guy, great personality, smart guy that obviously knows the game. But until I can see him take the team on the shoulders with his passing, then I'm going to hold off on putting him too high up on the list.

Yep.

Wilson has one of the best defenses in the league, at the time had Percy who is one of the most explosive players in football, and a fantastic RB in Lynch. Yea, you could put me out there and i would have that kind of success. Russell is good but he is not ELITE. Not yet anyway.

Cugel
01-14-2015, 04:38 PM
Didn't Eli win SUper Bowl MVP?

Yup. And he was playing at an elite level in those seasons wasn't he? Was he elite in 2013 or 2014? Ouch! He was beyond suck.

Did Joe Flacco have a good (forget great) year in 2013? Hell no!

There are few guys who seem to be elite every season - which simply means that that are good every year without taking any year off in order to suck. Andrew Luck, Aaron Rogers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees. Right now you might want to scratch, Peyton and Brees, and add Russell Wilson. Big Ben didn't have a particularly great season in 2013 either - another SB MVP.

If you want to limit "elite" to guys who are great every single year, then you're down to about 3 guys. :coffee:

Jsteve01
01-14-2015, 04:39 PM
Flacco DEFINITELY didn't look mediocre in the playoffs this season. He was sensational and twice built 14 point leads against the Patriots that his supposedly great defense blew. He outplayed Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady in 2012, took his team to the Super Bowl, and dominated the 49ers. That game was also a blowout until the power failure reset the game.

He certainly deserved to be the MVP of the 2012 playoffs. Sensational performance.

2013, not so much. 2014 he took them to the playoffs despite the not so sensational record, then once again was great in the playoffs. It's not his fault that they're not in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday.

So, Joe Flacco is absolutely, positively NOT proof that you can win a Super Bowl with a "mediocre" QB. That's flat wrong. And Russell Wilson will next year become the highest paid QB in football.

They're not just handing out over $20 million to the guy because he's "mediocre". He's playing at an elite level.

I vividly remember the shot of the Seahawks sideline in the Denver game this year when Peyton had just engineered a 4th quarter comeback from 14 points down and tied the game sending it into overtime. Richard Sherman looked absolutely shell-shocked on the sideline. He looked like he couldn't believe what happened.

I remember thinking that if Denver won the coin-flip and gave the ball back to Peyton and that offense, that there was just no way Denver could lose that game. The Seahawks defense was totally on their heels.

But, then Seattle won the flip, Wilson came back on the field and just took over. They couldn't stop him. He made plays with his arm, and running for key first downs. They marched right down and scored the winning TD and Peyton never touched the ball.

THAT is what elite QB play looks like. Total confidence, totally in control in a key moment.

He just hasn't done it for 5 or 10 years yet like Tom Brady, so he's not at that level. But, to underestimate Russell Wilson and say he's not an elite QB is just nonsense. He flat is.

Wilson is NOT elite. Bwhhahahahahahaaha

OMG. Without that defense the Hawks are NOWHERE near as good and Wilson isnt the type of QB to make players around him better. You are so ******* full of BS its just beyond hysterical at this point. I'll disagree with you on this one. Wilson is a freaking animal. He plays within his system so he's not putting up gawdy numbers. But he not that freaking lb should have been the MVP last year in the sb. And he may very well do it this year.

Joel
01-14-2015, 04:40 PM
Yeah.. but that's a "No Shit" comment. It like saying that "tomorrow is another day." Everyone knows that franchise QBs are hard to find, otherwise, everyone would have one.
If it's so undeniably self-evident, why do so many people keep insisting we can drop Manning and just keep right on winning double digit games annually with Oz or whoever we grab at random? Post-Manning will SUCK, because we won't have a QB and all the pricey All Pro guns we quickly brought in to assemble a championship roster around Manning will already be headed the same place as Manning.

Why's there so much heated debate about something so patently obvious to everyone?

Northman
01-14-2015, 04:41 PM
I'll disagree with you on this one. Wilson is a freaking animal. He plays within his system so he's not putting up gawdy numbers. But he not that freaking lb should have been the MVP last year in the sb. And he may very well do it this year.

Disagree all you want. He isnt Elite.

Joel
01-14-2015, 04:42 PM
I still think he will if Peyton returns for 2016 (which is looking rather doubtful at the moment, yes?) Teams are desperate for QBs. And it's not as if the average starting QB salary is less than $15 million a year. He might not get that much, but somebody is going to give him a 1 year contract that will stagger the average fan.

And yes, they'll probably be overpaying. I never said that Brock would be worth that money, just that he'd get paid.

Was Zane Beadles worth a five year, $30 million contract, with $13 million guaranteed (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5833/zane-beadles)?

There was no way in Hell he was worth that kind of money after sucking BAD, but he got it! Do you think that Brock is worth less than Zane Beadles? Seriously? :laugh: And before you say "Yes" Zane's a G and Brock's a QB. So, the correct answer is "no." Period.
Sure, I could see a team like Jax paying top dollar for Oz just as they did for a guy like Beadles who can't do anything but pancake guys half his size 20 yds from the play. The Jags do tons of stupid crap.

As for Flaccos eliteness and absolutely not being at fault for NE winning last weekend: He threw the game-winning pass into the end zone, but to the WRONG TEAM. He throws a nice Hail Mary, as Denver fans know too well, but its lack of accuracy, vision and recognition make it nearly as dangerous to his own team as to others. Regardless, if guys like Trent Dilfer and Doug Williams can win SBs with elite TEAMS, anyone good enough to be drafted can.

Ravage!!!
01-14-2015, 04:42 PM
If you want to limit "elite" to guys who are great every single year, then you're down to about 3 guys. :coffee:

Yes.

Rodgers, Brady, Peyton, Luck, Brees.. I would even stretch to Rothlesburger but I realize that comes down to opinion like Wilson. I've just seen more of Roth and his ability to win with his arm compared to Wilson.

Northman
01-14-2015, 04:46 PM
Yes.

Rodgers, Brady, Peyton, Luck, Brees.. I would even stretch to Rothlesburger but I realize that comes down to opinion like Wilson. I've just seen more of Roth and his ability to win with his arm compared to Wilson.

The Elite list is not very large.

Slick
01-14-2015, 04:47 PM
Stop acting like you're smarter than everyone else, Cugel. We all know how hard it is to replace a guy like Manning. Some of us just know that Manning isn't going to win shit even if he does come back next year and are ready to face that reality sooner rather than later.

Cugel
01-14-2015, 04:50 PM
Yes.

Rodgers, Brady, Peyton, Luck, Brees.. I would even stretch to Rothlesburger but I realize that comes down to opinion like Wilson. I've just seen more of Roth and his ability to win with his arm compared to Wilson.

What you have done is arbitrarily knock certain guys (Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, probably Phillip Rivers - who has had some great years and some total SUCK years, so he's inconsistent too) out of the category of "elite." And then say "you don't need an elite QB to win the SB" and then argue that the Broncos can get just "some guy" like Brock Osweiler is likely to be, and then somehow win the SB.

This is just flat wrong. You need an elite QB to win. And "elite" means a QB who's playing at an elite level when the playoffs roll around.

There are about 10 guys in the NFL who qualify, or who might qualify depending on the year, which means if you don't have one of about 10-12 top NFL QBs you have pretty much no chance.

You might argue about which 10 guys. My list would be:

Aaron Roger, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco. That's nine. You might argue about Tony Romo or Nick Foles. You might want to argue that if Carson Palmer could make a comeback the way he was playing before he was hurt the Cardinals might have had a shot. etc. And since Brees performance this year, and Peyton's performance in this year's playoffs, maybe they aren't elite any more either. Who really knows?

But, the main point remains. Without one of the top QBs you aren't going to win it. Just look at who the remaining 4 QBs are right now - Luck, Brady, Rogers, Wilson.

I wouldn't be in such a rush to rush to the "post Peyton" era. That era is likely to suck. Bad.

Joel
01-14-2015, 05:01 PM
Dilfer wasn't elite, and neither are Flacco nor Roethlisberger. For that matter, Brees is very good, but not elite; if elite QBs must be able to put the team on their backs and win when no one else can, that's not Brees, because every time I've seen the Saints in a stalemate with anyone, Brees has snapped under the pressure. He looks great playing with a lead his team got him, but so did Dilfer (to be clear though, Brees is WAY better than that.) It doesn't take an elite or even very good QB to win SBs—but they DO make it MUCH easier, and anyone lacking one requires a great TEAM we won't have post-Manning.

Ravage!!!
01-14-2015, 05:04 PM
What you have done is arbitrarily knock certain guys (Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, probably Phillip Rivers - who has had some great years and some total SUCK years, so he's inconsistent too) out of the category of "elite." And then say "you don't need an elite QB to win the SB" and then argue that the Broncos can get just "some guy" like Brock Osweiler is likely to be, and then somehow win the SB.

I have not said any such thing. I've given you my "elite" list. You don't have to have an ELITE QB to win the Super Bowl, but you better have one damned GOOD one to truly have a legimate shot.

Your definition of "elite" is different than mine, and different than nearly EVERYONE else's that I've ever discussed this with. NEVER have I seen someone break down the "playing at elite level during playoffs" only as their definition. That's YOUR definitin, not mine.

If you want to put the top 10 as your "elite" list...great for you. Don't pigeon hole me into your, lone, definition of the category.

Flacco, to me, is absolutely NOT an elite QB. Plays fantastic in the playoffs when he had a top defense to pull him out, but when it relied on him to win the game in the air, his "long ball" just kept getting intercepted.

Northman
01-14-2015, 05:05 PM
Dilfer wasn't elite, and neither are Flacco nor Roethlisberger. For that matter, Brees is very good, but not elite; if elite QBs must be able to put the team on their backs and win when no one else can, that's not Brees, because every time I've seen the Saints in a stalemate with anyone, Brees has snapped under the pressure. He looks great playing with a lead his team got him, but so did Dilfer (to be clear though, Brees is WAY better than that.) It doesn't take an elite or even very good QB to win SBs—but they DO make it MUCH easier, and anyone lacking one requires a great TEAM we won't have post-Manning.

I agreed with some of this but not with most of it. I think your clueless on what Elite is too.

Ravage!!!
01-14-2015, 05:05 PM
Dilfer wasn't elite, and neither are Flacco nor Roethlisberger. For that matter, Brees is very good, but not elite; if elite QBs must be able to put the team on their backs and win when no one else can, that's not Brees, because every time I've seen the Saints in a stalemate with anyone, Brees has snapped under the pressure. He looks great playing with a lead his team got him, but so did Dilfer (to be clear though, Brees is WAY better than that.) It doesn't take an elite or even very good QB to win SBs—but they DO make it MUCH easier, and anyone lacking one requires a great TEAM we won't have post-Manning.

I think you are nearly the only person to not see Brees for being a great QB and in the elite class. But, to which their own.

EastCoastBronco
01-14-2015, 05:25 PM
You throw all those stats out there. But what is not factored into equation his being groomed for three years and learning how to be a pro from manning. Manning helped him in film study not so much in practice and let the coaches do that. I would give Oz a much better chance then 2%.

Like he groomed Curtis Painter?
EFSSL...

Jsteve01
01-14-2015, 06:03 PM
Dilfer wasn't elite, and neither are Flacco nor Roethlisberger. For that matter, Brees is very good, but not elite; if elite QBs must be able to put the team on their backs and win when no one else can, that's not Brees, because every time I've seen the Saints in a stalemate with anyone, Brees has snapped under the pressure. He looks great playing with a lead his team got him, but so did Dilfer (to be clear though, Brees is WAY better than that.) It doesn't take an elite or even very good QB to win SBs—but they DO make it MUCH easier, and anyone lacking one requires a great TEAM we won't have post-Manning.

I agreed with some of this but not with most of it. I think your clueless on what Elite is too..

Wilson accounted for 4400 yards of offense and had a 95 passer rating as a 4th year player. He is a match up nightmare. He's elite

Joel
01-14-2015, 06:28 PM
I agreed with some of this but not with most of it. I think your clueless on what Elite is too.


I think you are nearly the only person to not see Brees for being a great QB and in the elite class. But, to which their own.
"Elite" is a subjective and somewhat relative term, so standards differ; I believe mine very high. Think long term though, back not only through Aikman, Young and Favre nor even Elway, Montana and Marino, but throughout a SB era that includes Staubach, Tarkenton and Unitas: I doubt ANYONE disputes each of those 9 QBs are elite; just how many "elite" QBs can there be before the term's watered down to mean "every one above average or better"? Those I saw live I also saw repeatedly do things I've NEVER seen Brees do, things I doubt he CAN do; they're in a different—greater—class.

From that perspective, the only way Brees is elite is if there's some higher "super-elite" class he's never been in and never will. If we accept DOZENS of "elites," that's not very elite.

Simple Jaded
01-14-2015, 09:58 PM
Being SB MVP doesn't prove you're elite, Malcolm Smith doesn't even start.

wayninja
01-14-2015, 11:00 PM
If it's so undeniably self-evident, why do so many people keep insisting we can drop Manning and just keep right on winning double digit games annually with Oz or whoever we grab at random? Post-Manning will SUCK, because we won't have a QB and all the pricey All Pro guns we quickly brought in to assemble a championship roster around Manning will already be headed the same place as Manning.

Why's there so much heated debate about something so patently obvious to everyone?

Maybe we can, maybe we can't, we won't know for sure unless we try. But why is it so patently obvious that we can have another 12 win season WITH manning? I'm serious.

Simple Jaded
01-15-2015, 10:38 AM
Why is it so undeniably self-evident that the Broncos won't have a QB Post-Manning? Osweiler's got the talent to make it.

TXBRONC
01-15-2015, 11:15 AM
I don't know if Osweiler will turn into legitimate starting quarterback but I do think Elway has shown that he's descent judge of talent. I also think it is ridiculous to write Denver off for next ten or more years when Manning hangs them up.

Simple Jaded
01-15-2015, 03:57 PM
Whatever, anyways, Joel thought it SUCKED with Manning.

Buff
01-15-2015, 04:16 PM
Why is it so undeniably self-evident that the Broncos won't have a QB Post-Manning? Osweiler's got the talent to make it.

Was going to high five after the first sentence. You lost me after that though...

Timmy!
01-15-2015, 04:23 PM
The Montana giraffe will prove the doubters wrong......in 2016.

Simple Jaded
01-15-2015, 06:27 PM
Was going to high five after the first sentence. You lost me after that though...

Ya see Buff, every player has gifts given to him at birth and some other gifts acquired thru hard work and sweat, Osweiler appears to have either have said gifts or the work ethic to acquire said gifts. These gifts make it possible to play the game of football.

It's physics.

jhildebrand
01-15-2015, 11:18 PM
There's been a lot of loose talk from fans about "Peyton should hang it up." Well, he very well might do it. If he does, then Elway clearly wants to give Brock Osweiler a chance to prove if he can be a Super Bowl caliber QB. But, the grim meat hook reality is that Osweiler has about a 2% chance of being any good and 98% chance of sucking - statistically speaking.

Here's the record since 2001 when Tom Brady was taken in the 6th round of QBs drafted at #57 or later in the 2nd round (Brock Osweiler's pick). Of course I could make this list look even worse if I included all the first round busts, even #1 overall busts like David Carr, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell:





Nick Foles has looked pretty decent so far, but the Eagles haven't won anything with him yet. Has potential, but then RG III looked pretty good for a while. . . .







And some years there's just nobody at all no matter what draft pick you have:










That's a long grim list people. There are also a couple of guys like undrafted Tony Romo if you want to add him to the list of successes. But, to be fair you'd have to list all the undrafted QBs who were signed by teams at some point, and that would make the odds even worse.

Life is likely to be a very long and grim time for the Broncos after Peyton hangs it up. If fans want to have some kind of blind faith that it's going to be OK, then go ahead. But statistically, it's about like betting the house, the farm, the wife, the kids and the family dog on one spin of the roulette wheel and expecting to win big. It could happen, but almost certainly won't. That's what builds all those billion $ casinos in Vegas - blind hope.

You know what improves a young QB's chances immensely? :confused: The blue print is out there and has been. One team is employing it right now with FANTASTIC SUCCESS. You want to know? :confused: I will tell you...but first...let me say this: as much as people insist this is a passing league, a pocket passer league, something hasn't changed. That something is-run the ball and STOP the run. Now with that out of the way let me tell you how you improve the odds for a young QB's success in this league:

You build a stout defense. A nasty, physical, no smoke and mirros, line em up and play it straight regardless of what the O shows. A defense that does WHAT THEY WANT TO DO. A defense that dictates to the offense. Roethlisberger had his best D's early on which led to 15 wins his rookie year and a SB shortly after. Baltimore and Flacco. Tampa won a SB w/ Brad Johnson (not young) but a stout D. Russell Wilson has had success because the D keeps them in games. Kaepernick had a stout D.

A stout D means all the pressure is NOT on a young guy to do everything and put the team on his shoulders. You build to get that QB there but with a D like I mentioned above. That way a younger, inexperienced guy can make mistakes, play bad games at times even stretches, and finally have Tebow like numbers for many games yet youre always in it and possibly be looking at a second ring pretty quick like R. Wilson.

Ravage!!!
01-16-2015, 11:52 AM
Was going to high five after the first sentence. You lost me after that though...

No. Stardom in the NFL isn't about having talent or no talent. NOT making it to stardom in the NFL is VERY RARELY because of a "lack" of talent. These guys proved to have competed and succeeded at some of the highest level of competition outside the NFL. You can't tell me guys like Manning, Brady..Marino, Montana....are the most athletic people on the field. You can't tell me that McCaffrey was the most gifted player. There is no way that Jeff Saturday was the most "talented" person to fill that position. But those guys just have it between the ears. Whatever "That" is, they have 'it.'

So yeah... Os absolutely has the "talent" to be great. No one knows if he has the 'it' to be a super star, or if he has just enough 'it' to be very good in the NFL as of right now. I know that he's getting a late start compared to the other young QBs in the NFL. THat can either be a good thing, or a bad. We will never know.

Buff
01-16-2015, 12:10 PM
No. Stardom in the NFL isn't about having talent or no talent. NOT making it to stardom in the NFL is VERY RARELY because of a "lack" of talent. These guys proved to have competed and succeeded at some of the highest level of competition outside the NFL. You can't tell me guys like Manning, Brady..Marino, Montana....are the most athletic people on the field. You can't tell me that McCaffrey was the most gifted player. There is no way that Jeff Saturday was the most "talented" person to fill that position. But those guys just have it between the ears. Whatever "That" is, they have 'it.'

So yeah... Os absolutely has the "talent" to be great. No one knows if he has the 'it' to be a super star, or if he has just enough 'it' to be very good in the NFL as of right now. I know that he's getting a late start compared to the other young QBs in the NFL. THat can either be a good thing, or a bad. We will never know.

I don't know if I buy that - he's got a big arm and a giant lumbering body - no QB has ever found consistent success in this league at his size. I'm not even sure if he has the physical talent to make it, let alone the "it" factor.

Al Wilson 4 Mayor
01-16-2015, 12:19 PM
I don't know if I buy that - he's got a big arm and a giant lumbering body - no QB has ever found consistent success in this league at his size. I'm not even sure if he has the physical talent to make it, let alone the "it" factor.

I don't really think he's "lumbering". I know it's easy to assume that because of his size, but he is a very athletic dude. He could have played basketball at Gonzaga, but chose football instead. He's got good agility and speed. He runs a 4.6. He would run out of the spread option at times at ASU. Athletically, he's nothing like some of the giants who have come before him.

Buff
01-16-2015, 12:29 PM
I don't really think he's "lumbering". I know it's easy to assume that because of his size, but he is a very athletic dude. He could have played basketball at Gonzaga, but chose football instead. He's got good agility and speed. He runs a 4.6. He would run out of the spread option at times at ASU. Athletically, he's nothing like some of the giants who have come before him.

You realize I've seen him play, right? ;)

jhildebrand
01-18-2015, 06:37 PM
You know what improves a young QB's chances immensely? :confused: The blue print is out there and has been. One team is employing it right now with FANTASTIC SUCCESS. You want to know? :confused: I will tell you...but first...let me say this: as much as people insist this is a passing league, a pocket passer league, something hasn't changed. That something is-run the ball and STOP the run. Now with that out of the way let me tell you how you improve the odds for a young QB's success in this league:

You build a stout defense. A nasty, physical, no smoke and mirros, line em up and play it straight regardless of what the O shows. A defense that does WHAT THEY WANT TO DO. A defense that dictates to the offense. Roethlisberger had his best D's early on which led to 15 wins his rookie year and a SB shortly after. Baltimore and Flacco. Tampa won a SB w/ Brad Johnson (not young) but a stout D. Russell Wilson has had success because the D keeps them in games. Kaepernick had a stout D.

A stout D means all the pressure is NOT on a young guy to do everything and put the team on his shoulders. You build to get that QB there but with a D like I mentioned above. That way a younger, inexperienced guy can make mistakes, play bad games at times even stretches, and finally have Tebow like numbers for many games yet youre always in it and possibly be looking at a second ring pretty quick like R. Wilson.

Today's game is precisely why I said this. With a nasty, stout D your QB can have a terrible almost 4 quarters and STILL have a chance to win.