Football Outsiders Clutch Encouters - Broncos

[VonDoom]

Here's something we've all been harping on over the last few years - the inability to put a team away, step on their throat, etc, when we have a chance. Per FO:


Believe it or not, all five Denver games have made it into Clutch Encounters this season. Going back to last year's postseason, the Broncos have led by 11 to 21 points early in the fourth quarter in five games of their last seven games. Four of those games turned into one-score contests, and the fifth (the AFC Championship vs. New England) was a two-point conversion away from the Patriots making it five out of five. The Broncos have been making things interesting even after taking sizable leads. It helps when the Broncos commit 11 penalties for 101 yards in a sloppy road performance

The one upside here? Even if we let teams get close, we still usually win (15-2 in the games listed below):


Maybe it's a conservative John Fox philosophy, or maybe it's defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio's tactics, but the Broncos have had issues holding onto big leads. But when the game tightens up at the end, the defense has been very good, coming away with a few big interceptions or other splash plays. The following table shows every game with a fourth-quarter comeback opportunity (offense down by eight points or less) against Denver's defense since 2012.
Denver Broncos Defense: Fourth-Quarter Comeback Attempts (Down 1-8 PTS), 2012-14
Date Opp. QB Ahead Final Time Drive Result
9/9/2012 PIT B.Roethlisberger 25-19 W 31-19 3:00 T.Porter pick-six w/1:58 left
10/15/2012 at SD P.Rivers 28-24 W 35-24 3:52 C.Harris pick-six w/2:05 left
11/4/2012 at CIN A.Dalton 24-20 W 31-20 11:42 C.Bailey INT w/8:38 left
11/18/2012 SD P.Rivers 30-23 W 30-23 0:23 E.Dumervil sacks Rivers to end game
11/25/2012 at KC B.Quinn 17-9 W 17-9 0:11 D.Bruton INT w/0:00 left
1/12/2013 BAL J.Flacco 35-28 L 38-35 OT 1:09 70-yd TD pass to J.Jones w/0:31 left
9/15/2013 at NYG E.Manning 24-16 W 41-23 15:25 C.Harris INT w/14:53 left
10/6/2013 at DAL T.Romo 48-48* W 51-48 2:39 D.Trevathan INT w/1:57 left
10/27/2013 WAS R.Griffin 28-21 W 45-21 14:18 V.Miller strip-sack w/13:15 left
11/10/2013 at SD P.Rivers 28-20 W 28-20 6:43 Incomplete on 3rd-and-16 w/3:37 left
11/24/2013 at NE T.Brady 24-21 L 34-31 OT 14:32 J.Edelman go-ahead TD rec. w/13:13 left
12/1/2013 at KC A.Smith 35-28 W 35-28 3:32 Incomplete on 4th-and-4 at DEN 13 w/1:46 left
12/22/2013 at HOU M.Schaub 16-13 W 37-13 15:21 M.Adams INT w/14:11 left
9/7/2014 IND A.Luck 31-24 W 31-24 2:58 Incomplete on 4th-and-6 at DEN 39 w/1:51 left
9/14/2014 KC A.Smith 24-17 W 24-17 3:20 Incomplete on 4th-and-2 at DEN 2 w/0:15 left
10/5/2014 ARI L.Thomas 27-20 W 41-20 13:48 Three-and-out w/12:20 left
10/12/2014 at NYJ G.Smith 24-17 W 31-17 0:56 A.Talib pick-six w/0:15 left
*Trailed earlier in 4th quarter; allowed 15 points to Dallas in quarter

... with one big exception, of course, but let's not talk about that one.

The rest: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/clutch-encounters/2014/clutch-encounters-week-6

[Joel]

I love FO to death, and I know they're just being thorough, but several of those games shouldn't be counted as blowouts we let opponents turn into nail-biters only to hang on at the end. Like the first SD game: We didn't blow out a team but let them comeback, THEY did, leading by 24-0 before we stormed back to officially begin the Manning era with a double digit win. 24-0 comeback wins are rare enough, but to score 35 unanswered and win by two scores? Literally unprecedented: It's NEVER happened any other time in 90+ years of NFL history before or since.

That years playoff loss doesn't qualify either; Prater blew our ONE chance for a two-score lead when he kicked the ground just before the half and gave Baltimore great field position our Non-Prevent D let them turn into a 60 yd TD drive in <1:00 to turn what SHOULD'VE been a two-score lead into a halftime tie.

The 'Skins game was like SD: We didn't jump out to a huge lead and slowly leak points till we were hanging on by a thread at the end, THEY jumped out to a 21-7 lead in the second half because our stellar offense kept handing them TDs, so we had to claw our way back in to take the lead (two 4th down conversions, including a TD,) but after that we TOTALLY stepped on their throat and won by a huge margin.

41-23 over NYG when Harris started the final period with an Int? We'd already outscored them nearly 2:1 on the road: We CRUSHED their throats so badly NY needed an emergency tracheotomy.

It's less about taking our foot of the gas than playing a full game, IMHO; sometimes we come out roaring but let up and let teams hang around, but others we come out flat and have roar BACK to win a close one. We've got the talent to win a lot of games like that in the regular season, where each weeks opponent varies from good to bad to average and there's always next week to get back on track. But in those single-elimination playoff games where EVERY team's good, playing one half/week's asking to get beat by a team that plays kickoff to gun.

[HORSEPOWER 56]

I love FO to death, and I know they're just being thorough, but several of those games shouldn't be counted as blowouts we let opponents turn into nail-biters only to hang on at the end. Like the first SD game: We didn't blow out a team but let them comeback, THEY did, leading by 24-0 before we stormed back to officially begin the Manning era with a double digit win. 24-0 comeback wins are rare enough, but to score 35 unanswered and win by two scores? Literally unprecedented: It's NEVER happened any other time in 90+ years of NFL history before or since.

That years playoff loss doesn't qualify either; Prater blew our ONE chance for a two-score lead when he kicked the ground just before the half and gave Baltimore great field position our Non-Prevent D let them turn into a 60 yd TD drive in <1:00 to turn what SHOULD'VE been a two-score lead into a halftime tie.

The 'Skins game was like SD: We didn't jump out to a huge lead and slowly leak points till we were hanging on by a thread at the end, THEY jumped out to a 21-7 lead in the second half because our stellar offense kept handing them TDs, so we had to claw our way back in to take the lead (two 4th down conversions, including a TD,) but after that we TOTALLY stepped on their throat and won by a huge margin.

41-23 over NYG when Harris started the final period with an Int? We'd already outscored them nearly 2:1 on the road: We CRUSHED their throats so badly NY needed an emergency tracheotomy.

It's less about taking our foot of the gas than playing a full game, IMHO; sometimes we come out roaring but let up and let teams hang around, but others we come out flat and have roar BACK to win a close one. We've got the talent to win a lot of games like that in the regular season, where each weeks opponent varies from good to bad to average and there's always next week to get back on track. But in those single-elimination playoff games where EVERY team's good, playing one half/week's asking to get beat by a team that plays kickoff to gun.

Actually, the record just fell last weekend when the Browns came back to beat the Titans after being down by 25.

[Joel]

Actually, the record just fell last weekend when the Browns came back to beat the Titans after being down by 25.
The Browns "only" came back from 25-0 to win by 1 pt; we came back from 24-0 to win by 11, scoring 35 unanswered. That's the record: The only 24 pt comeback to win by TWO SCORES (Throat: STOMPED.)

Neither our deficit nor Clevelands was the largest ever overcome (though it may be the biggest REGULAR season comeback.) I know THAT record far too well to EVER forget.... :mad:

[Simple Jaded]

The Browns "only" came back from 25-0 to win by 1 pt; we came back from 24-0 to win by 11, scoring 35 unanswered. That's the record: The only 24 pt comeback to win by TWO SCORES (Throat: STOMPED.)

Neither our deficit nor Clevelands was the largest ever overcome (though it may be the biggest REGULAR season comeback.) I know THAT record far too well to EVER forget.... :mad:
To a backup QB.

[MasterShake]

Seems to be a trend this year across the NFL that no lead is safe, especially the last few weeks with some epic comebacks. I don't care if the other teams get a couple of punches to the kidneys or claw at our faces, just keep that pillow on their heads to muffle the scream and get another win.




Man that came out ALOT darker than I expected.

[Timmy!]

Seems to be a trend this year across the NFL that no lead is safe, especially the last few weeks with some epic comebacks. I don't care if the other teams get a couple of punches to the kidneys or claw at our faces, just keep that pillow on their heads to muffle the scream and get another win.




Man that came out ALOT darker than I expected.

http://m.quickmeme.com/img/52/52b48e1bea6b99cf751d09230c2ec9fb88fa3c32e95fe7d20d f3a33acea2ac7b.jpg

[Joel]

To a backup QB.
To be fair, he also held the record for largest COLLEGE comeback before 2006, so the dude wasn't awful. When I looked him up to confirm that record's been broken, btw, I found out he's SDs OC now.

[Joel]

Seems to be a trend this year across the NFL that no lead is safe, especially the last few weeks with some epic comebacks. I don't care if the other teams get a couple of punches to the kidneys or claw at our faces, just keep that pillow on their heads to muffle the scream and get another win.

Man that came out ALOT darker than I expected.
It's not just this year, but the last several years: In addition to our 24-0 comeback against SD in 2012, the 2011 Cowboys led Detroit 27-3 at the end of the 3rd qtr, but Garrett insisted on Romo keep passing anyway, so a pair of picks (including a pick-six) helped Detroit come back and win. That's just the ones that stuck in my mind; e've had more 24 pt comeback wins in the past FIVE YEARS than the previous NINETY. Thank you, flag football: It no longer matters HOW much better one team is, even the WORST team can keep throwing Hail Maries expecting either a TD or flag.

Parity my dictat rather than talent or skill: Casual fans love the flying circus' close high-scoring games, and that's great for ratings. Trouble is, serious fans hate seeing refs job their team out of games so they lose to people like CLEVELAND, Jax, Tampa etc. and that's BAD for ratings—and sales of tickets and merchandise.

[Simple Jaded]

Yeah I think I thought he was Peyton Manning's QB coach at one point.

[Joel]

Yeah I think I thought he was Peyton Manning's QB coach at one point.
Reckon so, and as much as Manning likes to go no-huddle and/or hurry up, it was probably a good fit. I haven't watched SD yet this year; are they using that much?

[Slick]

Seems to be a trend this year across the NFL that no lead is safe, especially the last few weeks with some epic comebacks. I don't care if the other teams get a couple of punches to the kidneys or claw at our faces, just keep that pillow on their heads to muffle the scream and get another win.




Man that came out ALOT darker than I expected.

Yeah, you could have left out the punches to the kidneys part.

[Ravage!!!]

To be fair, he also held the record for largest COLLEGE comeback before 2006, so the dude wasn't awful. When I looked him up to confirm that record's been broken, btw, I found out he's SDs OC now.

Depends on your definition. He was awful as a starter in the NFL, that's for sure.

[Joel]

Depends on your definition. He was awful as a starter in the NFL, that's for sure.
But one of the best backups ever (not counting guys like Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers, who were less backups than heirs apparent.) Unfortunately.... :(

It also seems the trend of higher scores in the years since nerfing defensive rules IS greater this year, at every level; ESPNs TMQB even led off with an extended discussion of it this week: http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/page/TMQWeekSix141014/are-high-football-scores-bad-thing-tuesday-morning-quarterback

The pick of the litter is the team that racked up >600 yds of offense and 5 TDs yet still got BLOWN OUT by 6 TDs. It's one thing when a team with a great offense faces a team that makes lots of turnovers, but when they just take turns throwing TD bombs every down for 60:00 it really is starting to turn into basketball on grass. I quit watching tennis when rallies were replaced with two guys in a batting cage (it took a little longer for womens tennis, which was fine with me because they have better legs, but it still ended the same way.) This is beginning to look annoyingly like that.