2013-14 Offensive Line

[Broncolingus]

Just a quick shout out...

...but I think the offensive line play (overall) has been the most underrated story of the year...particularly in pass protection.

Considering the injuries in the preseason and beginning of the year, the overall job they've done has been damn impressive, with only a couple of games midseason as 'letdowns.'

Even more so, the job Clark has done filling in for Clady has been remarkable...

...and I think they've got enough to handle the DL of the Seacocks too, which I think will be the equalizer in the Super Bowl.

[OrangeHoof]

I think the Broncos are in a position to "sell high" on Clark this off-season. Given the value of effective LTs, I think we could get a 3rd or possibly a low 2nd rounder for him. Since we will likely have some cap casualties, an extra second-day pick could replenish depth elsewhere.

[Joel]

I think the Broncos are in a position to "sell high" on Clark this off-season. Given the value of effective LTs, I think we could get a 3rd or possibly a low 2nd rounder for him. Since we will likely have some cap casualties, an extra second-day pick could replenish depth elsewhere.
Then if Clady gets hurt again, or Franklin does, where does that leave us? Winston Justice?

I've really been on a roller coaster with our line this season. The first month they were jaw-droppingly good; Manning was untouched and the run blocking looked like the climax of the "The Ten Commandments" (again I note: Moreno averaged >5 yds/att through our first 4 games.) But we lost Clady Week 3 and briefly lost Franklin in Week 5, prompting Vasquezs move to RT and Kuper returning at RG on foot that was visibly not full healed, and it was awful for the next month. Strip-sacks in 3 straight games; ugh.

After that they slowly started coming together; the pass blocking improved, but the run blocking was still pretty anemic. The last month, the run blocking has finally started looking more like it did at the start, though still not quite on the same level. I dunno; ask me after the Super Bowl: Seattle's given up a lot of running yards in a few games, and their run D is less formidable than their pass rush and secondary, but only relatively—they still allowed just 3.9 yds/att (7th best) facing Gore twice.

All I know is they play the biggest game of their lives in 2 weeks, against a fierce defense in cold conditions, and our RBs are good, not great: They better bring it. Both our lines have looked much better in the playoffs than in the regular season, but the closest thing we've faced to a front seven like Seattles is KC (which wasn't all that close after the bye.) I love Moreno to death, but he's no Terrell Davis, and neither is the rookie back who grew up idolizing him; if our line can win a SB with them, they deserve all the respect in the world.

[Ziggy]

Fun fact- The Seahawks played 2 decent offensive teams on the road this season. Those 2 teams averaged 27 points/game against the vaunted Seahawks D. They were the 11th and 14th ranked scoring offenses. Neither are elite, or could hold a candle to Denver's offense. Seattle is about to get dominated. Our offensive line will manhandle the Seahawks D line.

[Joel]

Fun fact- The Seahawks played 2 decent offensive teams on the road this season. Those 2 teams averaged 27 points/game against the vaunted Seahawks D. They were the 11th and 14th ranked scoring offenses. Neither are elite, or could hold a candle to Denver's offense. Seattle is about to get dominated. Our offensive line will manhandle the Seahawks D line.
I'm not a fan of scoring offense/defense; that said: We outscored Seattle just 2 pts/gm in the playoffs vs. MUCH worse defenses (SD and NE) while they faced much better ones (NO and SF.)

What's really interesting in terms of yds/att is their run D's statistically much better (3.9 yds/att, 7th overall) but their rushing offense much WORSE (4.3 yds/att, 12th overall) than most seem to think. Top ten AGAINST the run, but Beast Mode posted a rather unbeastly average BARELY above the NFL average. Know who DID have a top ten rushing average?

1 Philly (5.1)
3 Washington (4.8)
5 KC (4.7)
6 Oakland (4.6)
8 Dallas (4.5)
9 New England (4.4)

The main difference is Seattles D is so good their offense had the 2nd most rushing ATTEMPTS, so all those barely above average runs added up to a top 5 total; all those teams we played, despite running well, have garbage defenses that sideline their RBs. Seattle may not have that problem, especially since our rushing average is only 4.1 (20th.)

This is why I like averages: Hail Maries and clock-killing drives at the end of blowouts don't artificially raise/lower them like they did our 7th best total rushing and 6th worst total passing D. To the extent the averages drop, it's across the board, because it's easier to depend what you're expecting, but I doubt that makes a big difference. Defensively, our rankings in passing/rushing totals are suspiciously close to our rankings in attempts. So, let's compare those:

Offensive rushing yds/att
Seattle: 4.3 (12th)
Denver: 4.1 (20th)

Offensive passing yds/att
Seattle: 8.4 (2nd)
Denver: 8.3 (3rd)

Defensive rushing yds/att
Seattle: 3.9 (7th)
Denver: 3.9 (10th)

Defensive passing yds/att
Seattle: 5.8 (1st)
Denver: 7.1 (15th)


That's... a little daunting; they're better than us in all four categories, despite a tougher schedule.

Even at what we do best, Seattle's 2nd highest passing yds/att (8.4) is slightly better than our 3rd best (for the record, Philly was 1st with 7.1) Seattles TOTAL'S just low (26th) because they so rarely throw (only SF had less attempts.) They don't want and seldom NEED to throw, but have been far more effective than most would expect when they do; there's a reason Wilsons PR is >100. They are 1st in passing yds/att ALLOWED though (5.8,) and faced the 7th least passes despite winning most games: They get people off the field.

The thing is though, in the playoffs we've gotten much better where we're weak, while they've gotten worse. Our defense has looked MUCH better each of our last two games (only 3 pts before the 4th quarter in both games COMBINED?! Who are you and what have you done with the Broncos D?) Their offense, on the other hand, has been pretty flat (though they were facing good Ds, especially in the last game; still, if Kaepernick doesn't throw that one away, we play them in 2 weeks.)

[Broncolingus]

I think the whole thing comes down to two things...

1. Can our OL protect Manning against their DL (which I think they can), and...

2. Can our defense stop Lynch (which I also think they can).

...and of course, protect the ball and stay away from penalties and ST gaffes of course - but that applies to both teams equally...

But, do those two things, and I think Denver has a very good chance to win...

[Joel]

I think the whole thing comes down to two things...

1. Can our OL protect Manning against their DL (which I think they can), and...

2. Can our defense stop Lynch (which I also think they can).

...and of course, protect the ball and stay away from penalties and ST gaffes of course - but that applies to both teams equally...

But, do those two things, and I think Denver has a very good chance to win...
That really is the meat of it. Even then our secondary and pass rush will have to do its job against a passing attack apparently better than I thought, or shutting down Lynch won't help; getting them to 3rd and 7 doesn't matter if you just give immediately give up a 20 yds pass (as the Texans about that one. ;)) We need push against an underrated D rn to wear them while resting and protecting ours (the second is almost as important as the first: We're thin, but sideline injuries are rare,) because that will slow their rush and thin their coverage for Manning.

Ultimately though it comes down to what you said: If our best guys make plays and we PREVENT THEIR best guys making plays, we win. If the opposite, they win. What makes it interesting is completely both teams strengths and weaknesses complement each other. Will a #1 offense perform like one against a #1 D, and vice versa? As importantly, how will a #19 D and #17 offense perform against each other? Most folks seem to be assuming our offense and their D will cancel, and picks depend on whether someone thinks our D or their offense over/underrated.

I like that storyline because our D has stepped up in both playoff games while their offense has fallen off, and if we open much of a lead early they're not built for a comeback, while we are if the shoe's on the other foot. I also wonder if they'll be so confident in covering the whole field that they concentrate on stopping the short routes and let Manning pick his targets deep.

[CoachChaz]

The other thing to look at, is Seattle runs that 8 man rotation with their front 4. How often are they going to get to rotate out against our no huddle offense? I think running long drives without the huddle is the key to beating their defense.

[BroncoNut]

Fun fact- The Seahawks played 2 decent offensive teams on the road this season. Those 2 teams averaged 27 points/game against the vaunted Seahawks D. They were the 11th and 14th ranked scoring offenses. Neither are elite, or could hold a candle to Denver's offense. Seattle is about to get dominated. Our offensive line will manhandle the Seahawks D line.

I hope you are correct, of course, but also I think our keys to victory will be the performance of the offensive line. I'm counting on this ^.

[Joel]

The other thing to look at, is Seattle runs that 8 man rotation with their front 4. How often are they going to get to rotate out against our no huddle offense? I think running long drives without the huddle is the key to beating their defense.
Peyton: I think we got this play, kid.
Ball: Because you read the formation?
Peyton: No.
Ball: Because they stacked the box?
Peyton: No.
Ball: Because they're in man?
Peyton: No.
Ball: Then... WHY?
Peyton: Because Avrils eyes just rolled back and Mebane swallowed his tongue.

Sustained drives. All the hurry up in the world won't wear them down if we're three-and-out, nor even if we snatch 70 yds in just 3 plays and 46 seconds. Even quick strike TDs could backfire; maybe it's Lynch taking pressure off Wilson, so people don't expect it, but—whatever the reason—Seattle averages more yards/pass than WE do. They could conceivably hang with us in a shootout if Carter, Webster and Co. can't handle Baldwin and Kearse, and if we go to the 4th quarter like that, I know whose front seven will wear down first.

Hint: NOT the one already missing half its starters. Mitch Unrein vs. Marshawn Lynch is something I want to see as little of as possible; if he can't even keep BRADY from running up the gut for a TD, what's he gonna do vs. Beast Mode? And the less our D is on the field, the less the risk of someone ELSE getting hurt.

The underappreciated danger of quick strike vs. ground and pound is that unless your D is VERY good and VERY deep (and ours is NEITHER,) they get an 8:00 drive for each of your 3:00 drives. After about 2 hours of that, your D (if there's anyone left standing on it) is sucking wind, while theirs has only played about half a quarter. Then you head to the final period with that, knowing that once it's about half over, you're on your final drive: The next time they get it, they'll never give it back again.

"Whoever has it last wins" only works if you can make sure YOU have it last, and if we're built for comeback ability, THEY'RE built to have the ball last.