How big of a loss was Derek Wolfe?

[BSN Denver]

The Denver Broncos have added their tenth and eleventh players of the season to the injured reserve list.

Today Derek Wolfe and Chris Harris Jr. were both added to the IR. Both of these players were starters to start the season. This makes seven defensive players on IR, four of which were starters.

Derek Wolfe suffered “seizure-like symptoms” on November 29th on the teams bus ride to the airport. He has practiced only twice since then. Reports say he lost quite a bit of weight, and was never cleared by team doctors, who have monitored him closely since the incident.

The Broncos have lost a handful of pass rushers this season, including rookies Lerentee McCray, Quanterus Smith, and veterans Kevin Vickerson, Von Miller, and now Derek Wolfe.

Derek Wolfe has provided some good snaps for the pass rush this year. He recorded four sacks, hit the quarterback another six times, and hurried the QB 28 times. He has ten stuffs, which is the number of solo tackles that constitute an offensive failure...CONTINUE READING (http://www.brandonspano.com/headlines.html?entry=how-big-of-a-loss)

[weazel]

Wolfe rocks, I hope he gets well

[BroncoNut]

I was gonna say, probably a big loss. I like him a lot as a player, he's aggressive and effective. hope he returns next year, but kinda doubt it. both he and Rahim have some serious medical issues that will probably retire them both soon

[CoachChaz]

I dont know. 16 tackles and 4 sacks in 11 games. I think Ayers, Jackson and Phillips outplayed him all season. When healthy, he's a solid player, but has yet to live up to any of the hype

[Joel]

I dont know. 16 tackles and 4 sacks in 11 games. I think Ayers, Jackson and Phillips outplayed him all season. When healthy, he's a solid player, but has yet to live up to any of the hype
Almost ever since they posted it I've been quoting another Week 5 BSN article that said Wolfe was double teamed on 42% of his snaps. Millers return left offenses three choices:

1) Play Miller and/or Wolfe one-on-one, 2) Give Phillips, Vickerson or Knighton a free shot at the QB or 3) Use 7+ blockers. Any of those options sound good?

The fleeting whole of Wolfe AND Miller was greater than the sum of its parts, because even when one got doubled he created opportunities for the other and for the rest of our front four. Unfortunately, Miller missed the first 6 and Wolfe the last 5 regular season games, so we only had both for 5 games. During that time though Phillips is the only one I valued as highly as Wolfe.

Coach, how uncommon and valuable are 4-3 DEs who don't just play the run OR pass well, but BOTH? Not elite pass rushers but weak run stoppers like Mathis and Doom, nor solid run stuffers but weak pass rushers like Ayers; DEs who can play every down and even play DT in 3rd and long nickel? Wolfe sometimes reminded me of Trevor Pryce, so I miss him nearly as much.

Hopefully Jackson/Ayers steps up to fill that void, and hopefully (please, God!) we have no more injuries. Against Brady and the NE RB rotation we need DEs who play the run AND pass well, and will again if we reach the SB against either Seattle or SF. Wolfes loss is potentially huge, IMHO, on par with and compounded by Millers. Phillips is phenomenal, but can't play both sides at once.

[broncofaninfla]

He seemed to start off slow this season but seemed to be coming around right before he got hurt. I think the loss of Harris was much more significant but I also feel we would be a much better team with Wolfe as part of the DL rotation.

[CoachChaz]

I think you can look at the play, the performance and the numbers and see that the defense is better with Jackson, Ayers and Phillips on the field than they are with Miller and Wolfe. Wolfe just doesnt seem to do anything without Miller out there and I dont know that I buy into teams double teaming him more than they would Phillips on the other side. But who knows. Either way, I think the team is fine without Wolfe. It would be nice to have him in the rotation...but he doesnt make or break us.

[Joel]

I think you can look at the play, the performance and the numbers and see that the defense is better with Jackson, Ayers and Phillips on the field than they are with Miller and Wolfe. Wolfe just doesnt seem to do anything without Miller out there and I dont know that I buy into teams double teaming him more than they would Phillips on the other side. But who knows. Either way, I think the team is fine without Wolfe. It would be nice to have him in the rotation...but he doesnt make or break us.
That's a... bold statement (especially since Phillips is out there most of the time anyway; it's pretty much Miller+Wolfe vs. Irving+Ayers/Jackson.) I guess we'll see; we had Miller and Wolfe @NE (but also had Vickerson and DRC till the second half, and losing them seemd to hurt most then.) I'm just going by BSNs numbers on Wolfe getting double teamed when Miller was out; 42% was nearly half his snaps, and a strong indicator of whom opposing coaches considered most dangerous in our front seven. I hope you're right, because we need good D to finish our run.

[Broncolingus]

Good or bad player...

...doesn't bode well for Wolfe returning to the NFL...esp as a starter.

Sad...

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

I saw on the NFL ticker today that they listed it as a spinal injury when they put him on IR.

[EastCoastBronco]

I could look it up but didn't he have a similar incident with similar symptoms last season during the pre-season?
I remember something weird happened to him that was in the news.

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

I could look it up but didn't he have a similar incident with similar symptoms last season during the pre-season?
I remember something weird happened to him that was in the news.

No, not last year. He didn't miss any time last year. There's a possibility they brought him back too soon from his spinal injury.

[Joel]

I saw on the NFL ticker today that they listed it as a spinal injury when they put him on IR.
That suggests it's either a tragic coincidence, or the early statements to the press that it was unrelated to his preseason spinal injury—that tests had ruled that out even though they couldn't determine WHAT the problem is—were pretty much bull. I guess that's not the only possibility, but the only other explanation that comes to mind is that someone at the NFL just decided to list it as the previous injury because they didn't have any other specific injury with which to classify it.

That really really sucks, for him even more than for us. I hope he got a lot of money on the first two years of his contract, and pray he's not at risk of serious long term problems. Scary stuff.

[NightTerror218]

Wolfe played better with miller on field. But if he had a neck issue all season could be why play was slow during season. I hope all the time off gives him time to get healthy next season.

[Joel]

Wolfe played better with miller on field. But if he had a neck issue all season could be why play was slow during season. I hope all the time off gives him time to get healthy next season.
Yeah, had that thought, too. It was brought up earlier in the year, especially when his seizures began a debate over whether we were really losing all that much since he hasn't looked like he did last year. Yet that discussion was quickly shutdown by the announcement the tests that clarified nothing nonetheless ruled out any connection to his preseason spinal injury. Now he's on IR with what's apparently listed as a spinal injury, which suggests all the earlier discussion of the preseason injuries lingering effects was quite justified.

Put it this way: If the effects were still so severe two months ago that he went out for the rest of the year, and are STILL so severe that he's officially done for the season, they were probably severe enough in the first WEEKS after the injury that it affected his play. I just hope and pray he gets healthy, period. I want a SB, but not badly enough to see a guy paralyzed or dead. In terms of the team though: We could very easily be facing a situation where two of our last three top picks never play again.

[SR]

I dont know. 16 tackles and 4 sacks in 11 games. I think Ayers, Jackson and Phillips outplayed him all season. When healthy, he's a solid player, but has yet to live up to any of the hype

This. He might be a fan favorite or whatever but he's not nearly the player some people make him out to be. He's solid, but far from irreplaceable. Malik Jackson is more noticeable on the field that Wolfe was.

[SR]

That's a... bold statement (especially since Phillips is out there most of the time anyway; it's pretty much Miller+Wolfe vs. Irving+Ayers/Jackson.) I guess we'll see; we had Miller and Wolfe @NE (but also had Vickerson and DRC till the second half, and losing them seemd to hurt most then.) I'm just going by BSNs numbers on Wolfe getting double teamed when Miller was out; 42% was nearly half his snaps, and a strong indicator of whom opposing coaches considered most dangerous in our front seven. I hope you're right, because we need good D to finish our run.

It's not a bold statement at all.

[Hawgdriver]

Woolf is a big loss, wish him all the best. Shame. Malik, make us forget all about him.

[CoachChaz]

Woolf is a big loss, wish him all the best. Shame. Malik, make us forget all about him.

IMO...he already has

[Joel]

Jackson's my first choice to replace Wolfe, too (though I don't think he brings quite as much as a pass rusher) but haven't the coaches put Ayers in and reserved Jackson for backing up Phillips on the other side? I realize he CAN play either side (and believe Ayers was rotating with Phillips early) but didn't think we had him DOING it much. My recollection is that Jackson's usually been coming off the left side of our D rather than the right, but I only watch the games once, so would welcome elaboration from anyone whose using their DVR or has the NFL game film subscription.

[FanInAZ]

I could look it up but didn't he have a similar incident with similar symptoms last season during the pre-season?
I remember something weird happened to him that was in the news.

It was this season's preseason that he got that injury that some of us feared might have ended his career. Initial reports was that he's probably going to at least miss all of this season. I was amazed when he started opening week, but have since wondered if he'd rushed his return.

[NightTerror218]

I think Ayers will play a lot if NE tries to run down throats. If Brady tries to pick apart secondary more Jackson.

[Joel]

I think Ayers will play a lot if NE tries to run down throats. If Brady tries to pick apart secondary more Jackson.
That makes sense, and suggests they'll rotate depending on down/distance. The depth chart at the team site and ESPNs shows Jackson as the starter opposite Phillips, with Mincey behind him and Ayers behind Phillips. Ayers is a better run stuffer than pass rusher though, and what I've seen online about Mincey suggest he's just the opposite, more of a poor mans Mathis or Doom, so I'd think they'd put Jackson/Mincey on the QBs blindside and have Phillips/Ayers on the side that must beat TE blocks to reach runners, but those aren't necessarily opposite sides.

Whatever works. I just wish we weren't forced to choose between the guy who plays the run well but not the pass vs. the guy who plays the pass well but not the run, then hope we have time to substitute them when appropriate (it's not like Brady ever runs Hurry Up offense, right?) Hopes and prayers Wolfe makes a full recovery, for our sake as well as his.

[Dzone]

I like Wolfe, but we dont need him. We have guys who are filling in just fine, if not better.
Its not like he is JJ Watt or something

[MOtorboat]

Wolfe's inconsistent play is a direct result of the scheme, IMO, and I don't think people should be shocked that he's better when Miller is in the lineup.

The Broncos drafted him to play inside in a 3-3, 4-3 over/under look, playing 3-tech and 4-tech. When Miller isn't in the lineup they can't play the 3-3 over/under, 4-3 over/under look, because they don't have the explosive player coming off the edge to do it.

I went back and looked at the defensive line formations in the first quarter of two games, against Philadelphia (I chose this game because Wolfe had a decent game on the stat sheet) and Indianapolis (Miller's first game back).

Wolfe played in 18 of 27 first quarter snaps against Philadelphia. Every single one was as a traditional defensive end, lined up outside the tackle, except one play he lined up as a ROLB (but I think Denver got caught substituting in Philly's hurry up). Nine of those snaps were on the right, nine on the left. I don't believe he's ever lined up in that position (college or pro) consistently. He overran nearly ever run play, because his instinct are to push up field like a 3-tech inside.

He played 13 of 22 first quarter snaps against Indianapolis, Five at RDE, 6 at LDE and 2 at LDT, but he wasn't off tackle, he was playing 3-tech, 4-tech and a couple snaps at 5-tech. His best three games were the three games following that Indy game. I don't think that's a coincidence.

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

Good post Mo-

I personally never doubted he was a good player.

[dogfish]

look at MOseph running shit like a short boss. . .

even if you don't agree, let's put it this way. . . even if malik jackson replaces wolfe effectively, we don't have another player with that skillset to replace malik's role in the rotation. . . we're lucky that we were able to bolster our depth with mincey, who's given us some quality snaps, but he's not a guy that fills the same roles. . . if anything, mincey helps us replace a bit of what von did on third downs. . .

it's also a concern going forward, because both ayers and philips are free agents. . . and i don't want to hear about quanterus smith until he gets on the field and does something, sorry. . . the position is in serious flux going forward if wolfe doesn't return at full health next year. . .

[Joel]

look at MOseph running shit like a short boss. . .

even if you don't agree, let's put it this way. . . even if malik jackson replaces wolfe effectively, we don't have another player with that skillset to replace malik's role in the rotation. . . we're lucky that we were able to bolster our depth with mincey, who's given us some quality snaps, but he's not a guy that fills the same roles. . . if anything, mincey helps us replace a bit of what von did on third downs. . .
That's my concern; rotation's as vital at DE as at DT. Jackson plays the pass better than Ayers, IMHO, and the run better than Mincey reportedly does, but we have the same problem at DE and DT: Even if Sylvester Williams/Malik Jackson team with Terrance Knighton/Shaun Phillips as well as Kevin Vickerson/Derek Wolfe did, who comes in when the starting duo's tired? Unrein's never wowwed me at DT, and Hurry Up may allow us the chance to sub Ayers vs. the run or Mincey vs. the pass. Meanwhile, whoever isn't getting a breather justs wears down more.


it's also a concern going forward, because both ayers and philips are free agents. . . and i don't want to hear about quanterus smith until he gets on the field and does something, sorry. . . the position is in serious flux going forward if wolfe doesn't return at full health next year. . .
Yeah, I'm hopeful about Smith, but just because he's a Bronco doesn't mean he can play, and we don't know what he'll be like after injury. In FA I'm less concerned about Phillips than Ayers; as a far more versatile player, it's hard to imagine we won't re-sign Phillips after he led the team in sacks playing for just an even $1 million. At 33, I doubt we offer a long deal, but also doubt anyone else does either. Right now, Phillips is probably the best DE on a team with few good ones: Why wouldn't we re-sign him?

Ayers is another matter; he's good against the run but never more than average rushing the passer, and lost his starting job in preseason two years ago because Del Rio thought he was loafing (and publicly said so.) That doesn't sound like a guy we're desperate to keep. He lost the starting job to Wolfe, and didn't get it back even after Doom bolted: We signed Phillips to start instead. We may offer Ayers a new contract, but I doubt it's huge, and if he gets a better offer (in terms of money or playing time) he'll probably take it.

So I agree we NEED Wolfe back whether or not we GET him. Even if Jackson is consistently strong vs. both run and pass, Mincey's a rental, Ayers likely gone and I have little faith in the versatility of either of those two. I just hope and pray Wolfe suffers no long term harm, and the rest of the team gets a Ring for all of them before we must assemble next years roster.

[nevcraw]

It's simple - would rather have him than not.. Houston oakland and a banged up Oline Chargers team are not the Patriots stout offense. Besides the coaches wouldn't be beaching him for any of they guys (mentioned above as better than him) if he were available.. Good grief.

[MOtorboat]

Good post Mo-

I personally never doubted he was a good player.


look at MOseph running shit like a short boss. . .

even if you don't agree, let's put it this way. . . even if malik jackson replaces wolfe effectively, we don't have another player with that skillset to replace malik's role in the rotation. . . we're lucky that we were able to bolster our depth with mincey, who's given us some quality snaps, but he's not a guy that fills the same roles. . . if anything, mincey helps us replace a bit of what von did on third downs. . .

it's also a concern going forward, because both ayers and philips are free agents. . . and i don't want to hear about quanterus smith until he gets on the field and does something, sorry. . . the position is in serious flux going forward if wolfe doesn't return at full health next year. . .

I think you two may have misinterpreted what I said a little. I like Wolfe, but he has underperformed this year, and if he's a one-formation pony (for lack of a better term), and without Miller the Broncos aren't going to use that scheme, then he isn't exactly the solution at the position. If Jackson is better all-around, or Ayers for that matter, he should be the guy on the field getting more snaps.

The only thing that stops me from thinking that's 100 percent the case is that whenever Wolfe was healthy, Del Rio had him on the field, and not the other two.

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

I think you two may have misinterpreted what I said a little. I like Wolfe, but he has underperformed this year, and if he's a one-formation pint (for lack of a better term), and without Miller the Broncos aren't going to use that scheme, then he isn't exactly the solution at the position. If Jackson is better all-around, or Ayers for that matter, he should be the guy on the field getting more snaps.

The only thing that stops me from thinking that's 100 percent the case is that whenever Wolfe was healthy, Del Rio had him on the field, and not the other two.

Prior to Miller's return he was doubled more than any player in our front 7, which isn't reflected in the stats you posted.

[MOtorboat]

Prior to Miller's return he was doubled more than any player in our front 7, which isn't reflected in the stats you posted.

That may have been the case. I certainly don't know the source that Joel cites for that stat, nor do I know if it's credible or not, and I don't know where to find that particular bit of information. I have a hard time believing that they were double teaming Wolfe at RDE (and they certainly weren't against either Philly or Indianapolis), but if those stats are legit, then it's a legit point.

[Hawgdriver]

Great analysis Mo.

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

That may have been the case. I certainly don't know the source that Joel cites for that stat, nor do I know if it's credible or not, and I don't know where to find that particular bit of information. I have a hard time believing that they were double teaming Wolfe at RDE (and they certainly weren't against either Philly or Indianapolis), but if those stats are legit, then it's a legit point.

I didn't see any stats Joel posted. Im just remembering something I saw a while back. I think it was the Mile High Report. If I remember correctly he was doubled on 35-45% of his snaps, most of those being passing downs.

[Hawgdriver]

I didn't see any stats Joel posted. Im just remembering something I saw a while back. I think it was the Mile High Report. If I remember correctly he was doubled on 35-45% of his snaps, most of those being passing downs.

Is 35-45% significantly above average?

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

Is 35-45% significantly above average?

It depends on how good of a player you are. On most downs the defense can only double one guy. It means defenses respect him.

[Joel]

That may have been the case. I certainly don't know the source that Joel cites for that stat, nor do I know if it's credible or not, and I don't know where to find that particular bit of information. I have a hard time believing that they were double teaming Wolfe at RDE (and they certainly weren't against either Philly or Indianapolis), but if those stats are legit, then it's a legit point.
It's from one of the Brandon Spano Network articles linked here around the time Miller came back: I didn't vet it, but they said Wolfe was double-teamed on 42% of his snaps in our first 5 games. And, yeah, it seems to me like a DE getting double-teamed on almost half his snaps is a lot. On passing downs, those are double-teams that would normally be on Miller, but unless teams kept 7 blockers (leaving just 3 receivers) or gave Vickerson, Knighton or Phillips a free shot, they couldn't double both Miller AND Wolfe.

It's one of those deals where a guy can have a huge impact by creating opportunities for teammates to make plays that show up on their stat sheet instead of his. Without going back and looking at every play, or at least most, I can't be sure how much of that applies, but even if they pancaked him everytime, if Wolfe had two guys on him every other down, he made an impact. After I saw that I got really psyched about getting Miller back, because it was a "choose your poison" kind of thing—then we lost Wolfe after just 5 more games.

I don't have game tape on hand, so I can only go from memory and logic, but it's certainly tantalizing that people are talking about Wolfe AND MILLER underperforming this year. It could very well be as simple as only being on the field together for 5 games; before that teams could scheme for Wolfe, and afterward they could scheme for Miller. Now we have neither, which is troubling.

[Hawgdriver]

It depends on how good of a player you are. On most downs the defense can only double one guy. It means defenses respect him.

So it means he's an asskicker if he's getting doubled at that rate. Got it.

[MOtorboat]

I'm sorry Joel, I didn't know what BSN meant.

[Joel]

I'm sorry Joel, I didn't know what BSN meant.
No worries; I was just trying to be (relatively) brief. ;) It was just as well since it motivated me to go find the article (on the quality of Elways draft picks) because I recalled it slightly wrong:
Derek Wolfe’s performance has dropped in his second season due to the fact that he has been double teamed on 42% of his pass rush attempts. http://tinyurl.com/p3gddv7
So not 42% of ALL Wolfes snaps, just all his PASS RUSHES. Perhaps more importantly, the article was from the middle of the week after our bye, so (presumably) covers 8 games, not just 5 (and thus a couple games after Millers return.) Again, I don't have the tape, but suspect the percentage was higher during Millers suspension; Wolfe's no scrub, but on pass rushes I can't imagine many teams would double him and leave Von Miller one-on-one, so most of Wolfes double teams were probably while Miller was gone.