Okay, I Can FINALLY Figure out Each Possible AFC Playoff Scenario

[Joel]

It' here for the sole reason I care about it at all: Because it determines our potential playoff opponents. The top five seeds are fairly straightforward (e.g. KC is locked into the #5) but—even with just ONE game left—three teams are tied for the final wildcard, with two more just a game back (yes, the Jets were mathematically eliminated LAST week, but STILL matter.)

Head-to-head's always the first division/conference tiebreak, but only a sweep of/by the rest counts as "head-to-head" in a 3+-way tie. Otherwise, division/conference record's the first division/conference tiebreak, and division comes first in all conference ties. That's how the Jets can play spoiler: If they beat Miami they'll be even, but e the Jets will eliminate Miami by division record in step one. The same applies to Baltimore if they lose and Pittsburgh wins.

Incidentally, this weird scenario is EXACTLY where Denver was the last week of 2006: We had the best conference record of all bubble teams—but KC had the WORST, AND a better division record. So the first step was always "Denver is eliminated" and we could only make the playoffs if KC were #5 seed, which was impossible since EVERYONE came ahead of them. Anyway:

Denver

#1 with A tie/win OR NE loss;
#2 otherwise

New England

#1 with a win AND Denver loss;
#2 with a tie/win AND Denver tie/win
OR a loss AND Cincy tie/loss AND Indy tie/loss
#3 with a loss AND Denver tie/win AND Cincy/Indy tie/loss
#4 otherwise

Cincinatti

#2 with a win AND NE loss
#3 with a win and NE win
OR a tie AND Indy tie/loss
OR a loss AND Indy loss
#4 otherwise

Indianapolis

#2 with a win AND NE loss AND Cincy tie/loss
#3 with a win AND NE loss AND Cincy win
OR a win AND NE win/tie AND Cincy tie/loss
OR a tie AND NE win/tie AND Cincy loss
#4 otherwise

Kansas City

#5 in all cases

Miami

#6 with a win AND SD win/Baltimore tie/loss
OR a tie AND SD tie/Baltimore tie/loss

OR a tie AND SD loss AND Baltimore loss
Miami's out no matter what if the Jets beat them; they'd be even, but the Jets would have a better division record, so Miami would be eliminated in step one

Baltimore

#6 with a win AND SD/Miami tie/loss
OR a tie AND SD/Miami tie/loss but NOT a SD tie AND Miami tie (Baltimore beat Miami, but Miami wins a 3-way tie on conference record)
OR a loss AND Miami loss AND SD loss AND Pittsburgh tie/loss
If Baltimore lost and Pittsburgh won they'd be even, but Pittsburgh would have a better division record, so Baltimore would be eliminated in step one

San Diego

#6 with a win AND Miami tie/loss AND Baltimore tie/loss
OR a tie AND Miami loss AND Baltimore loss

Pittsburgh

#6 with a win AND Miami loss AND Baltimore loss AND SD loss

Anyone who wants to doublecheck all that can use this (click on "Tiebreakers" for an explanation of applicable ones:) http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine For what it's worth, I expect no change from the top four, Cincy to crush whomever staggers into the #6 seed and Denver to face the winner of KC@Indy in the divisional round (and Indy won handily @KC yesterday.)

[MasterShake]

I don't usually pay attention to playoff seeding outside of where Denver is, but I can not remember the last time so much was so wide open going into the final week. And for everyone who complains about the division structure the final week with division rival games is going to make for some good games to watch.

At this point if things shake up like they should, I wouldn't mind seeing Indy here in Denver so Manning can finally put the pillow on the face of his former team (shhh... no more screaming now, only sleep) and get a chip off his shoulder and hopefully move into the championship game with some momentum.

I REALLY want the AFC to go through Denver. I can't imagine many people want to play here.

[Dzone]

So what it boils down to is Indy or KC will come to Denver after the wild card weekend?

[MasterShake]

So what it boils down to is Indy or KC will come to Denver after the wild card weekend?

I hope so. I was nervous about KC but outside of Charles they are pretty bereft (thanks word of the day calendar!) of talent. I welcome either of them into the loving arms of Mile High.

[Northman]

So wait, is Bmore eliminated completely? I thought someone said yesterday that if they beat Cincy they still had a shot to get in? Or did you forget about them Joel?

[Dzone]

Now they are saying Denver could face cincy, kc , indy or whoever is #6...

[Northman]

The loss eliminated the Ravens (8-7) from contention in the AFC North and dropped them into a tie with Miami and San Diego for the final AFC wild-card slot. Baltimore closes the regular season at Cincinnati, which displaced the Ravens as division champs.

A tid bit about the dirty birds on Espin.

[Joel]

I don't usually pay attention to playoff seeding outside of where Denver is, but I can not remember the last time so much was so wide open going into the final week. And for everyone who complains about the division structure the final week with division rival games is going to make for some good games to watch.
Beyond the top five, the AFC is just garbage this year; I'm sorry, but there it is. The division structure is actually part of the problem here, because the tiebreaks are set up to eliminate all but one team from each division at the start of any logjam. That's why, even though NO other bubble team can match Miamis conference record AND the Jets have been out of it since last week, Miami's still screwed if the Jets beat them: They'd lose a tiebreak to a team that CAN'T be #6 before they even had the chance to beat out those who can.

I disagree with the people who want the A/NFC to look like the old A/NL, but the wildcard IS supposed to work that way: That's the whole point! It's a conference, not division, playoff, and using division tiebreaks to eliminate the best remaining conference team has annoyed me ever since it happened to us nearly a decade ago.


At this point if things shake up like they should, I wouldn't mind seeing Indy here in Denver so Manning can finally put the pillow on the face of his former team (shhh... no more screaming now, only sleep) and get a chip off his shoulder and hopefully move into the championship game with some momentum.

I REALLY want the AFC to go through Denver. I can't imagine many people want to play here.
Denvers cold thin air gives it one of the NFLs best HFA, and the fans get pretty loud when the bad guys have the ball. The prospect of Luck bringing Indys dome team to Denver is very appealing; despite well over a decade of HoF experience, it took PFM a year and a half to find his Mile High groove: I doubt Luck is ready yet. Plus I still think Mathis is ultimately just a speed rusher; put him on grass instead of turf and he's not nearly as quick around LTs.

[Dzone]

So Cincy, SD, KC, Indy, Miami or Baltimore could all be our first playoff opponent...We wont know until after the oakland game

[Joel]

So what it boils down to is Indy or KC will come to Denver after the wild card weekend?
Most likely, yeah. Nothing's guaranteed for us except the bye, but KC's locked into #5 and WHOEVER the #6 is sucks, so the #3 should cruise but the #4 may have trouble. Then #1 gets the worst survivor, and that'll be the winner of #5@#4 unless the #6 manages a HUGE upset @#3.


So wait, is Bmore eliminated completely? I thought someone said yesterday that if they beat Cincy they still had a shot to get in? Or did you forget about them Joel?
No, their name was just somehow tacked onto the end of Miamis permutations, and Indigo, while closer to their actual colors, doesn't show up well against a blue backing. Fixed. :)

[Joel]

Now they are saying Denver could face cincy, kc , indy or whoever is #6...
It's theoretically possible; we COULD face NE if they lose to Buffalo, end up #3/4 and win their wildcard game. I consider that about as unlikely as the #6 beating ANY division winner though. It's very unlikely Cincy will the be lowest remaining seed after Wilcard Weekend though, and nearly as unlikely we'll be #2.

[Cugel]

So what it boils down to is Indy or KC will come to Denver after the wild card weekend?

Exactly.

Denver is going to win next week in Chokeland, so Denver #1, NE #2, and #3 & #4 are Cincy & the Colts.

So, it's likely KC at the Colts and #6 (God Knows) at Cincy.

Miami, Baltimore or SD. Of those three SD is the only 1 I'd give a chance to go to Cincy and beat the Bengals (who are a vastly better home team than road team).

So, theoretically, it's possible that if SD gets into the playoffs via 3 crazy tie-breakers they go on the road and beat Cincy and then come here to Denver.

But, that's a lot of If's. 90%+ probability it's Colts or KC here week 2.

[ForgettingBrandonMarshall]

Doesn't Baltimore just have to win to get the 6th seed?

I'd like an explanation as to why the "AND SD/Miami tie/loss" was added to that.

[Broncolingus]

but KC's locked into #5 and WHOEVER the #6 is sucks, so the #3 should cruise but the #4 may have trouble. Then #1 gets the worst survivor, and that'll be the winner of #5@#4 unless the #6 manages a HUGE upset @#3.

"...got that?"

http://www.zuguide.com/image/David-Spade-Tommy-Boy.7.jpg

[Joel]

Doesn't Baltimore just have to win to get the 6th seed?

I'd like an explanation as to why the "AND SD/Miami tie/loss" was added to that.
I explained that in the OP, but the process is a little confusing:

Baltimore has the first tiebreak (i.e. head-to-head) by beating Miami if they—but ONLY they—finish even. In a 3+-way tie, head-to-head only applies if one team swept/was swept by all the rest, and that's impossible here because Baltimore hasn't played SD at all. So we go to the next tiebreak: Conference record, where no one can match Miami if Miami wins next week.

Hope that made sense; if not, try looking at these: http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/results/331229015~1~331229004~2~331229024~1

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?page=tiebreakers
http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs

[TXBRONC]

I don't usually pay attention to playoff seeding outside of where Denver is, but I can not remember the last time so much was so wide open going into the final week. And for everyone who complains about the division structure the final week with division rival games is going to make for some good games to watch.

At this point if things shake up like they should, I wouldn't mind seeing Indy here in Denver so Manning can finally put the pillow on the face of his former team (shhh... no more screaming now, only sleep) and get a chip off his shoulder and hopefully move into the championship game with some momentum.

I REALLY want the AFC to go through Denver. I can't imagine many people want to play here.

Most of the potential playoff teams do think they can beat the Broncos in Denver because they think Manning will choke especially if the weather is cold. Chiefs fans think that if Denver has to the Chiefs a third time that they have upper hand because beating an inferior team three times is so hard to do.

[Joel]

Most of the potential playoff teams do think they can beat the Broncos in Denver because they think Manning will choke especially if the weather is cold. Chiefs fans think that if Denver has to the Chiefs a third time that they have upper hand because beating an inferior team three times is so hard to do.
Manning's only had a HOME playoff in the cold once, and it's my opinion the foreign field and the crowd roaring over Mannings endless audibles was a bigger factor than the cold.

As for playing KC again, I'm more concerned about their WRs may not drop passes like the last two times, and containing Charles again without Vickerson, Wolfe and NOW Miller will be consideraly harder. But in terms of beating a team already beaten twice, it happens 65% of the time, so it's not THAT hard; anyone we already beat twice we should beat again at home.

[BroncoWave]

According to Bill Barnwell, this is the odds of each AFC WC contender getting in:

Miami: 62.6%
Baltimore: 20.3%
San Diego: 11.5%
Pittsburgh: 5.6%

Miami does appear to have the easiest path in. They just have to beat the Jets, then have EITHER San Diego beat KC (which seems likely since KC is locked into the 5 seed), OR Cincy beat Baltimore, which also has a decent chance of happening.

Here is the link explaining, you will have to scroll down a ways to get to it.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/10185042/bill-barnwell-week-16-nfl

[VonDoom]

It's so hard to believe that NO team controls their own destiny for the sixth seed. I didn't even think that was possible, but based on all the tiebreaker stuff I've read, apparently it is here. This is one thing I love about football, though - with only 16 games, so many things come down to the last week of the season. I think only three or four games this coming Sunday have absolutely no playoff implications. All the others make for an exciting day of games.

Obviously, for our team, we just have to beat Oakland (which we should be able to do) and not have to worry about anything else.

[Joel]

According to Bill Barnwell, this is the odds of each AFC WC contender getting in:

Miami: 62.6%
Baltimore: 20.3%
San Diego: 11.5%
Pittsburgh: 5.6%

Miami does appear to have the easiest path in. They just have to beat the Jets, then have EITHER San Diego beat KC (which seems likely since KC is locked into the 5 seed), OR Cincy beat Baltimore, which also has a decent chance of happening.

Here is the link explaining, you will have to scroll down a ways to get to it.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/10185042/bill-barnwell-week-16-nfl
I'm dubious of calculating the percentage chance of one or more team beating another; if that were possible with any precision or consistency Vegas (and possibly professional sports) would be out of business. Not that I don't respect the research and analysis Barnwell put into it.

We can determine all possible outcomes relevant to seeding, and the results of each one, but determining the PROBABILITY of each event is little more than a guess, no matter how well informed that guess is. If that sounds odd, just remember all the times you heard an announcer say, "so-and-so hasn't fumbled/thrown an interception/missed a kick in x attempts" then watched so-and-so do just that THE VERY NEXT PLAY. Because that's all Win Probability is.

A poster who shall remain nameless recently opined that maybe someone should read that The Hidden Game of Football I rave about all the time; well, that's where Win Probability was invented and defined, so apparently a few people HAVE read it. All Win Probability does is look at EVERY play in NFL history and calculate how many times the team with (or without) the ball won a game with a given field position, score and time remaining. It's not deterministic nor a true probability, just a history summary.

Meanwhile, as the book states very clearly, BECAUSE Win Probability is a function of field position, score and time remaining it can ONLY be calculated DURING games and is USELESS any other time, because the pre-game Win Probability for EVERY team EVERY week is (obviously) 50%: The difference between being on the right side of ALL historical scenarios resulting in wins (and all those resulting in losses) is the pre-game coin toss.

So (for example) Miamis chance to make the playoffs is P(Miami W)*(P(Baltimore L)+P(SD W))=0.5*(0.5+0.5)=50%. Barnwell's got it at 62.5% because he's including P(Miami L)*P(Baltimore L)*P(SD L)*P(Pitt L) but he's overlooking the fact a Miami loss is a Jets WIN, which would put NY in a 4-way tie AND give them a better division record than Miami, so Miami would be eliminated in the first step. That makes all the difference for Baltimore since they have a better conference record than SD and NY, but NOT Miami.

My guess is he overlooked the Jets inclusion because they were mathematically eliminated a week ago, so they can't get the #6 seed—but they CAN still be in the preliminary tie for it if all four contenders lose, in which case Jets can play spoiler to Miami.

[Joel]

It's so hard to believe that NO team controls their own destiny for the sixth seed. I didn't even think that was possible, but based on all the tiebreaker stuff I've read, apparently it is here. This is one thing I love about football, though - with only 16 games, so many things come down to the last week of the season. I think only three or four games this coming Sunday have absolutely no playoff implications. All the others make for an exciting day of games.
There's two reasons:

1) In all ties involving teams from the same division, eliminating all but one is the first step. Thus Miami is out with a loss, period: They'd finish even with the Jets but behind them in the division, so Miami could only go to the playoffs BEHIND the Jets—who were mathematically eliminated a week ago.

2) Teams in a 3+way tie so rarely sweep/get swept by the rest that those practically use a different tiebreak than 2-ways. So Baltimore has the 2-way tiebreak over Miami—but Miami has the 3-way tiebreak over Baltimore—but Baltimore has the 4-way tiebreak over Miami because the Jets eliminate Miami at the start! :confused:

In other words, the answer to "who has the tiebreak between Baltimore and Miami?" is "It depends." Miami in a 3-way, Baltimore in the rest.


Obviously, for our team, we just have to beat Oakland (which we should be able to do) and not have to worry about anything else.
Yeah, thank heaven for small blessings. I'm kind of glad win probability's incalculable pregame, because I wouldn't touch that above permutation with a 10' sliderule. ;)

[Ziggy]

Denver has clinched a first round bye in the playoffs and at least one home game. If they beat the Raiders next week, they lock up the #1 seed and get home field throughout. Nothing else matters. Bring in whatever team earns the right to get beat in Denver and watch it happen. See, that was easy.

[Northman]

Denver has clinched a first round bye in the playoffs and at least one home game. If they beat the Raiders next week, they lock up the #1 seed and get home field throughout. Nothing else matters. Bring in whatever team earns the right to get beat in Denver and watch it happen. See, that was easy.

...............................

[Ziggy]

...............................

Love ya too North. :o)

[VonDoom]

There's two reasons:

1) In all ties involving teams from the same division, eliminating all but one is the first step. Thus Miami is out with a loss, period: They'd finish even with the Jets but behind them in the division, so Miami could only go to the playoffs BEHIND the Jets—who were mathematically eliminated a week ago.

2) Teams in a 3+way tie so rarely sweep/get swept by the rest that those practically use a different tiebreak than 2-ways. So Baltimore has the 2-way tiebreak over Miami—but Miami has the 3-way tiebreak over Baltimore—but Baltimore has the 4-way tiebreak over Miami because the Jets eliminate Miami at the start! :confused:

In other words, the answer to "who has the tiebreak between Baltimore and Miami?" is "It depends." Miami in a 3-way, Baltimore in the rest.

Yeah, I'm at the point that I UNDERSTAND the scenarios, I just can't BELIEVE it :D

But as I said, I do love me some week 17 drama, especially if it doesn't involve my team (you know, because they've already clinched something, not because they've been eliminated)

[Joel]

Yeah, I'm at the point that I UNDERSTAND the scenarios, I just can't BELIEVE it :D
Just making sure; it's annoyingly convoluted. Frankly, the more I understand it the more I DISLIKE it. It doesn't make much sense to me to say Team A is better than Team B UNLESS one completely unrelated team beats another completely unrelated team.

I REALLY hate using division tiebreaks to eliminate all but one team from each division at the start, especially since this wouldn't be the first time it killed a team that had the first tiebreak (in some cases, head-to-wins) over all the teams OUTSIDE its division. The Jets aren't even in contention and HAVEN'T been for a while, but if they manage to tie all teams that ARE they'll eliminate the one that would otherwise win. It's a conference playoff, not a division playoff, and the wildcards whole point was to ignore division standing in favor of conference standing: Let's do that.


But as I said, I do love me some week 17 drama, especially if it doesn't involve my team (you know, because they've already clinched something, not because they've been eliminated)
Oh, BELIEVE me I hear that; watching Miami go through this is a lot more fun than watching Denver go through it a few years ago (although in that case we had the tiebreak over ALL non-division teams and BOTH wildcards were still open after Week 16, so it sucked that much harder that we got NEITHER; actually, 2006 sucked lots of ways....)

[Shazam!]

Joel I love your passion and all but I can never read your posts. Just too long.

[Joel]

Joel I love your passion and all but I can never read your posts. Just too long.
No worries; I fear it's unavoidable in this case because, even 15 games in, there are just too many possible playoff permutations still (especially with the mess the #6 seed is.)

[Joel]

Actually, I take it back: Miamis Win Probability of making the playoffs CAN'T be 50%, because their "Loss Probability" against the Jets is 50% (in which case they're dead) AND there's a case where the miss the playoffs even with a WIN/tie (i.e. if Baltimore does the same and SD doesn't.) So even in the simple case that ignores ties, their PP must be

P(Miami W)*[P(SD W)+P(SD L)*(Baltimore L)]

That's ½*(½+½*½)=½*(½+¼)=½*¾=37.5%. Not much better than the odds he gives the Ravens, though, again, WP at any time but DURING a game is meaningless.

Skimming the article again I see Brantwell DIDN'T use WP, but instead PF to get Expected Wins, converted that to a percentage, then used log5 to convert THAT into the expected percentage of winning next weeks games. I admire that in principle, because it's the kind of thing I'm prone to: Add the slightly greater amount of additional related data we have to get a slightly more precise picture at the expense of simplicity. I'd have used ACTUAL win percentage to date rather than EXPECTED wins, because what's relevant is what they've ACTUALLY (not SHOULD'VE) done.

The real problem (with which I'm all too familiar) remains regardless: Increased complexity is large, but increased precision debatable. And the several tying scenarios are still ignored. If predicting the next games outcome were as simple and reliable as plugging each teams real/expected win percentage into a log5 equation, we'd spend far less time discussing the probabilities and far more betting large sums of money on EVERY game, and the let the math assure far more would pay off than not. In reality, DVOA and the like would break us even if nothing else did.

[OrangeHoof]

The quick and dirty explanation is that Baltimore owns the head-to-head over Miami so when they were the only teams with the record to be Team #6, Baltimore had the advantage. But since both teams lost, San Diego got added to the mix which made it a three-team race that Miami wins as long as they don't wind up in a two-way tie with Baltimore.

If the teams tied for the #6 record are:

Miami and Baltimore, it's Baltimore. (HTH)
Miami and San Diego, it's Miami. (HTH)
Miami, Baltimore and San Diego, it's Miami (Conf record)
Miami*, Baltimore*, San Diego* and Pittsburgh, it's Miami. (*- these have to lose for all to be 8-8) (Conf record)
Miami*, Baltimore*, San Diego* and NY Jets, it's Baltimore (better conf than SD and NYJ)
Miami*, Baltimore*, San Diego*, Pittsburgh and NY Jets, it's Pittsburgh (better Conf than SD and NYJ, better division than BAL)
Baltimore and San Diego, it's Baltimore.

No other scenarios are possible.

[Broncolingus]

Actually, I take it back: Miamis Win Probability of making the playoffs CAN'T be 50%, because their "Loss Probability" against the Jets is 50% (in which case they're dead) AND there's a case where the miss the playoffs even with a WIN/tie (i.e. if Baltimore does the same and SD doesn't.) So even in the simple case that ignores ties, their PP must be

P(Miami W)*[P(SD W)+P(SD L)*(Baltimore L)]

That's ½*(½+½*½)=½*(½+¼)=½*¾=37.5%. Not much better than the odds he gives the Ravens, though, again, WP at any time but DURING a game is meaningless.

Skimming the article again I see Brantwell DIDN'T use WP, but instead PF to get Expected Wins, converted that to a percentage, then used log5 to convert THAT into the expected percentage of winning next weeks games. I admire that in principle, because it's the kind of thing I'm prone to: Add the slightly greater amount of additional related data we have to get a slightly more precise picture at the expense of simplicity. I'd have used ACTUAL win percentage to date rather than EXPECTED wins, because what's relevant is what they've ACTUALLY (not SHOULD'VE) done.

The real problem (with which I'm all too familiar) remains regardless: Increased complexity is large, but increased precision debatable. And the several tying scenarios are still ignored. If predicting the next games outcome were as simple and reliable as plugging each teams real/expected win percentage into a log5 equation, we'd spend far less time discussing the probabilities and far more betting large sums of money on EVERY game, and the let the math assure far more would pay off than not. In reality, DVOA and the like would break us even if nothing else did.


The quick and dirty explanation is that Baltimore owns the head-to-head over Miami so when they were the only teams with the record to be Team #6, Baltimore had the advantage. But since both teams lost, San Diego got added to the mix which made it a three-team race that Miami wins as long as they don't wind up in a two-way tie with Baltimore.

If the teams tied for the #6 record are:

Miami and Baltimore, it's Baltimore. (HTH)
Miami and San Diego, it's Miami. (HTH)
Miami, Baltimore and San Diego, it's Miami (Conf record)
Miami*, Baltimore*, San Diego* and Pittsburgh, it's Miami. (*- these have to lose for all to be 8-8) (Conf record)
Miami*, Baltimore*, San Diego* and NY Jets, it's Baltimore (better conf than SD and NYJ)
Miami*, Baltimore*, San Diego*, Pittsburgh and NY Jets, it's Pittsburgh (better Conf than SD and NYJ, better division than BAL)
Baltimore and San Diego, it's Baltimore.

No other scenarios are possible.


My contribution, gents...slightly easier to understand and y'all are welcome.

http://www.noob.us/images/math4.gif

[Joel]

The quick and dirty explanation is that Baltimore owns the head-to-head over Miami so when they were the only teams with the record to be Team #6, Baltimore had the advantage. But since both teams lost, San Diego got added to the mix which made it a three-team race that Miami wins as long as they don't wind up in a two-way tie with Baltimore.

If the teams tied for the #6 record are:

Miami and Baltimore, it's Baltimore. (HTH)
Miami and San Diego, it's Miami. (HTH)
Miami, Baltimore and San Diego, it's Miami (Conf record)
Miami*, Baltimore*, San Diego* and Pittsburgh, it's Miami. (*- these have to lose for all to be 8-8) (Conf record)
Miami*, Baltimore*, San Diego* and NY Jets, it's Baltimore (better conf than SD and NYJ)
Miami*, Baltimore*, San Diego*, Pittsburgh and NY Jets, it's Pittsburgh (better Conf than SD and NYJ, better division than BAL)
Baltimore and San Diego, it's Baltimore.

No other scenarios are possible.
1) A Miami, Baltimore, SD and Pitt scenario is impossible, because then the Jets beat Miami next week, so all 5 are tied and
2) ALL ties involving the Jets eliminate Miami as the first step, because the Jets will have a better division record than Miami, and it's narrowed to one team/division first.

Miami's in with a win AND SD win OR Baltimore loss
Baltimore's in with a win AND Miami loss OR SD loss
OR a loss AND Miami loss AND SD loss AND Pitts loss (in a 5-way tie Pitts has a better division record than Baltimore and eliminates them in step one while the Jets do the same to Miami)
SD's in with a win AND Miami loss AND Baltimore loss
Pitt's in with a win AND Miami loss AND Baltimore loss AND SD loss

Ignoring the remote but real possibility of ties makes it MUCH simpler than how I said it at first; sorry for the confusion.

One interesting note is that, while no team fully controls its own destiny, only Baltimore can "back in" to the playoffs with a LOSS. As crappy as the AFCs bottom 10 are, that edge may be crucial.

[Joel]

One reason I HATE the one team/division rule on tiebreaks is it's so obscure & counterintuitive most don't know about it. It's the kind of thing only noticed if it screws you (that's how I found it.)

The other reason is the whole POINT of wildcards is that DIVISIONS DON'T COUNT, so it's stupid to say, "Team A is better than everyone but Team B, but they're from the same division, so Team A can't go." That's what the division champsionship does; doing the same with the wildcard misses the point of not screwing good teams with the misfortune to be in great divisions.

If that sounds like no big deal, look at Arizona: Is SF holds on tonight (they lead Atlanta by 3 midway through the 4th) they clinch a playoff spot because they'll have a better head-to-head than Arizona—even if Arizona beats them next week. However, if Carolina loses and NO wins next week, NO will be division champs on division record. In other words:

New Orleans, Carolina, SF, Arizona will all be tied; NO eliminates Carolina in the NFCS race for the #2 seed, leaving a 3-way tie for the #5 seed:

Step 1: Eliminate all but 1 NFCW team; San Francisco eliminates Arizona by division record
Step 2: Carolina beat SF in the regular season; Carolina is #5 seed, leaving SF and Arizona tied for the #6 seed

Step 1: San Francisco eliminates Arizona by division record.

If anyone doesn't see the problem here: Arizona CRUSHED Carolina 22-6 in the regular season, but still misses the playoffs if they end up tied with each other and SF. Because SF always eliminates Arizona first, and Carolina narrowly beat SF 10-9, so Carolina goes first, then SF, and the 11-5 Cardinals are screwed. Beating 3 of the NFCs top 4 teams (and giving the #1 seed it's first home loss in 2 years) just isn't good enough for the playoffs, or rather, SF is better, and the NFCW's only allowed one playoff team unless they ALL beat NO AND Carolina.

We'd get far more wildcards in the same division if the first tiebreak weren't "eliminate all but one team/division," and that, after all, was the point of wildcards. Plus life would be much simpler.

[OrangeHoof]

1) Thanks for pointing out the impossibility of a four-way tie with Pittsburgh. I had failed to notice Miami and NYJ were playing each other.

2) I don't have a problem with the tiebreaking system because it exists to break ties and what they have elected to do is settle each tie within the division first and then move on to things like conference record.

All division ties are settled like this:

1. Head to head results
2. Division record
3. Conference record
4. all other tiebreaks like net points, etc.
5. Coin flip.

Conference ties are then broken according to the same steps, absent step 2.

What baffles me is that they don't use the same system for draft order. In draft order, they use:

1. Strength of schedule (the weaker, the better in terms of draft position)
2. Coin flip.

I'd rather they use similar tie-breaking procedures for the draft that they do for playoffs except the "losing" team in playoff scenarios would be the "winning" team in the draft order. There's nothing more disgusting than losing a tiebreaker to a division opponent so they make the playoffs and you don't then that team drafts ahead of you based on entirely different criteria.

[Joel]

We'll have to agree to disagree on wildcard ties being first settled within divisions. For division championships, sure, even seeding, but NOT wildcards themselves. Again, the wildcards whole POINT was to ignore division groupings so good teams aren't excluded for the misfortune of being in great divisions. Division grouping isn't as nonsensical as when Atlanta and New Orleans were in the NFC West and Arizona in the NFC East, but it's somewhat arbitrary (e.g. Dallas remains in the NFCE for traditions sake.)

Plus, again once again, the one team/division rule is both little known and confusing, because 2-way tiebreaks are effectively completely different than all others: They use the division tiebreak OR the other (never both,) while 3+way tiebreaks ALWAYS use both. Even if I agreed with heeding division standings for wildcards that are SUPPOSED to IGNORE DIVISIONS, I couldn't support a system so inconsistent and obscure many guys are PLAYING for wildcard spots they have NO IDEA how to earn.

"Is this test graded on a curve? Is there partial credit? Do we just get points for right answer, or also LOSE points for WRONG answers?"

"Don't worry about it; just take the test...."

Maybe I'm still a bit disgusted by how easily those who know its rules can game the SAT (not that I hesitated to take full advantage of it ;)) but I think any system that uses different rules in different circumstances and leaves most people—including those directly affected—ignorant or confused about which rules apply is a bad system.

I have long agreed with you on the abbreviated draft tiebreak though; it's ridiculous to have up to 12 tiebreaks for playoff spots yet only 5 for draft order.

That said, the draft tiebreak rules DO specify that, though teams pick in reverse order of overall record:

1) All non-playoff teams always pick 1st-20th,
2) All Wildcard Weekend loser always pick 21st-24th,
3) All Divisional Round losers always pick 25th-28th,
4) Both Conference Championship losers always pick 29th and 30th,
5) The SB loser always picks 31st and
6) The SB winner always picks 32nd.

It's impossible for any team that makes the playoffs to draft BEFORE any team that doesn't. It IS theoretically possible for one playoff team to draft AFTER a HIGHER seeded one if they both lose the same week, but the small set of permutations makes it statistically very unlikely.

For example, if the top six in both conferences all win next week, then #4 Incy beats #5 KC and #6 Miami beats #3 Cincy, 11-5 Cincy would pick immediately before 12-4 KC, even though they were also seeded higher in the playoffs. In fact, if NO also lost wildcard weekend #3 seed Cincy would pick TWO spots ahead of #5 seed KC, because NO playing Carolina twice plus the NFCW gives them a much higher SoS than Cincy, so Cincy would pick before NO, who'd pick before KC.

I imagine the draft tiebreaks are fewer because the number of teams who CAN tie is also shorter—but that's only true in the playoffs. Non-playoff teams actually OUTNUMBER potential wildcard teams 20:12, nearly twice as much; unsurprisingly, that's where the truncated draft tiebreaks have caused the most consternation (e.g. Pitt got Bradshaw by winning a coin flip vs. Chicago for the #1 overall pick.) If anything, the draft needs MORE tiebreaks than the playoffs, not less.

[OrangeHoof]

I have long agreed with you on the abbreviated draft tiebreak though; it's ridiculous to have up to 12 tiebreaks for playoff spots yet only 5 for draft order.

That said, the draft tiebreak rules DO specify that, though teams pick in reverse order of overall record:

1) All non-playoff teams always pick 1st-20th,
2) All Wildcard Weekend loser always pick 21st-24th,
3) All Divisional Round losers always pick 25th-28th,
4) Both Conference Championship losers always pick 29th and 30th,
5) The SB loser always picks 31st and
6) The SB winner always picks 32nd.

It's impossible for any team that makes the playoffs to draft BEFORE any team that doesn't. It IS theoretically possible for one playoff team to draft AFTER a HIGHER seeded one if they both lose the same week, but the small set of permutations makes it statistically very unlikely.

For example, if the top six in both conferences all win next week, then #4 Incy beats #5 KC and #6 Miami beats #3 Cincy, 11-5 Cincy would pick immediately before 12-4 KC, even though they were also seeded higher in the playoffs. In fact, if NO also lost wildcard weekend #3 seed Cincy would pick TWO spots ahead of #5 seed KC, because NO playing Carolina twice plus the NFCW gives them a much higher SoS than Cincy, so Cincy would pick before NO, who'd pick before KC.

I imagine the draft tiebreaks are fewer because the number of teams who CAN tie is also shorter—but that's only true in the playoffs. Non-playoff teams actually OUTNUMBER potential wildcard teams 20:12, nearly twice as much; unsurprisingly, that's where the truncated draft tiebreaks have caused the most consternation (e.g. Pitt got Bradshaw by winning a coin flip vs. Chicago for the #1 overall pick.) If anything, the draft needs MORE tiebreaks than the playoffs, not less.

I realize the NFL "fixed" the flaw I spoke of earlier regarding draft order but that has been a very recent development. And I don't really like the "fix" either because of the reasons you stated. #31 should be SB loser and #32 should be SB winner but all the other stratas should have been done according to W-L record - with the exception that non-playoff teams draft ahead of playoff teams. If a wild card gets on a run to the conference championship game and loses, I see nothing wrong with them picking according to W-L record instead of their playoff bracket success. That might seem hypocritical but I think it is the most fair overall.

[Dzone]

If Denver is not in the SB, I think it will be NE, with Mcdaniels being hailed as a gridiron genius, winning a super bowl with a bunch of castoffs...Oh God please no

[Joel]

I realize the NFL "fixed" the flaw I spoke of earlier regarding draft order but that has been a very recent development. And I don't really like the "fix" either because of the reasons you stated. #31 should be SB loser and #32 should be SB winner but all the other stratas should have been done according to W-L record - with the exception that non-playoff teams draft ahead of playoff teams. If a wild card gets on a run to the conference championship game and loses, I see nothing wrong with them picking according to W-L record instead of their playoff bracket success. That might seem hypocritical but I think it is the most fair overall.
I wouldn't say hypocritical since you know and admit the rationale, but it IS inconsistent, and I dislike inconsistency. Since only playoff teams have a chance to prove themselves there (obviously,) overall record is the best we have to rank the rest, and nearly all miss the playoffs precisely because they had a worse overall record than all teams that made it.

Playoff teams, however, offer another and better metric: Head-to-head matchups with the conferences best teams. Every team that reaches the SB is almost by definition one of the NFLs top two, and all those that reach a Conference Championship is similarly one of the NFLs best 4; they should draft accordingly. The draft's all about redistributing talent wealth (and holding down its cost by preventing EVERY rookie being a FA) and SB teams, CCG teams, Divisional Round teams and playoff teams each demonstrably need less help than the rest.

In other words, the draft exists to help the worst teams REACH the playoffs and, eventually, Super Bowl, not to make Super Bowl losers Super Bowl winners. Would Joeckel have made SF a SB champ? Quite possibly, but that not only isn't the drafts goal, it's pratically the EXACT OPPOSITE of that goal.

Take the example you gave: Just because a wildcard team goes on a run and reaches the conference championship it shouldn't lose the early-twenties pick its weak record merits? Okay then, why does that change if that wildcard teams lasts just ONE more game, and it WINS the conference championship before getting the snot pounded out of it by a REAL contender? Remember, even for a 9-7 or 8-8 wildcard team, a "deep" run stopped short of the SB only lasts TWO games AT MOST. Why should it matter if it lasts three?


If Denver is not in the SB, I think it will be NE, with Mcdaniels being hailed as a gridiron genius, winning a super bowl with a bunch of castoffs...Oh God please no
Brady can't legally throw to himself, and can't play D legally or otherwise. I frankly expect the Pats to be one-and-done, and wouldn't give them a snowballs chance in Hell of beating Seattle, SF, Carolina (who already beat them once) or NO on a neutral field. They DID beat NO earlier this year, but by a FG, in Foxborough, with several Pro Bowl starters who are now out for the season.

[DenBronx]

I want Baltimore after the wild card and New England in the AFCCG. I don't care about anything else.

[Runamok]

I didn't read this whole thing so may be going off topic but I think Miami could cause some problems if they get the last playoff spot.

They have been up and down all season but have already beat Indy, Cincy and the Patsies. If they're on they could be trouble for either the #1 or #2 in the Divisional round.

[OrangeHoof]

Welcome, Runamok. The Dolphins blow hot and cold just like Ryan Tannehill does. They have some decent weapons (not awe-inspiring, but decent) and some good defenders. I hope they get in.