What Happens If We, Baltimore and Indy All Win This Week?

[Joel]

That is, I know we'd clinch homefield, but if we DO that before we get to Oakland, does Peyton Manning still get the season passing records that look almost certain now?

He's currently 4 passing TDs short of that record, 5 all purpose TDs short of that one and 666 passing yards short of that one, all of which (especially the first) he should easily get in two games. Yet if we have nothing to play for but pride against the Raiders, do we sit our interminable list of injured starters so they have two weeks rest and recuperation before our first playoff game?

It's an interesting question given all our key injuries and the popularity of claiming rest=rust explains Indys EIGHT one-and-done playoff outings with Manning: Indy was coming off a bye in three of them. Personally, I'm still not sure that explains it; Manning started every game of every season in Indy till injury ended his career there. Still, the possibility of rust rather than taped ankles is a more desirable way to enter the playoffs.

Just for the record: No, this threads message isn't "I hope they bench Manning so he misses the records, because my voodoo doll of my teams QB isn't working." :rolleyes: It's actually more "I don't know whether to root for the Colts or not...." I value a SB win infinitely more than passing records that probably wouldn't last any longer than Bradys six-year-old records in the National Arena Flag Football League, but, ideally, I'd like to have BOTH.

[Joel]

For what it's worth, the 1994 '49ers rested most starters in either the second half or all of their Week 17 loss to the Vikings (they got within a TD on a Grbac pass to Eddie Mac at the end) and it didn't inhibit them reaching their third straight NFCCG, nor scoring TDs on all of DALLAS' first three possessions, after which they never looked back en route to a SB where they crushed SD 49-26.

[BroncoWave]

We probably start Peyton until he gets the TD record then get him out of there, IMO. If he gets the record against Houston and we clinch the 1 seed, he probably just plays a drive or two against Oakland.

Normally I'd say play him the whole game to keep chemistry going, but with his ankle issues this year I'd rather him have the time to fully heal up for the playoffs.

[Joel]

We probably start Peyton until he gets the TD record then get him out of there, IMO. If he gets the record against Houston and we clinch the 1 seed, he probably just plays a drive or two against Oakland.
Makes sense, though that makes the passing yards record almost unattainable; he'd need to be right at his season average the last two games to break that one.


Normally I'd say play him the whole game to keep chemistry going, but with his ankle issues this year I'd rather him have the time to fully heal up for the playoffs.
There's enough good arguments FOR either decision to make arguing AGAINST either hard.

We are, after all, talking about a scenario where the whole team is off Wildcard Weekend, so if Manning skips most or all of the Raiders game this week will be his last game for three weeks, which is a lot of time to be idle in a complex offense where each players coordination, rhythm and timing are critical both individually and as a unit.

Then again, there's a reason the coaches held Manning out of so many Wednesday practices before last week. Anything can happen on any given play; guys have had career-ending injuries in pregame warmups. The season's riding on Manning, and if we had homefield clinched but lost him chasing a meaningless record, Fox would instantly be labeled the dumbest coach in hstory.

[VonDoom]

If this great situation were to arise, I'd imagine that Peyton would play the first half of the game against Oakland and then sit. Probably the rest of the starters, too. I'm basing this on nothing, but I doubt Manning would sit the whole game, even if he happened to break the TD record this week.

I'm trying to remember - when the week 17 game last year vs. KC became a blowout, did Manning sit at all?

[Bronco9798]

Regardless of the situation, I bet he plays both games till the end. He don't like coming out of games.

[Northman]

Regardless of the situation, I bet he plays both games till the end. He don't like coming out of games.


Not so sure about that, he came out and sat out of games for Indy in similiar situations. And add the ankle issue that Wave brought up i really dont see him playing full games if we have the #1 seed locked up.

[BroncoJoe]

Not so sure about that, he came out and sat out of games for Indy in similiar situations. And add the ankle issue that Wave brought up i really dont see him playing full games if we have the #1 seed locked up.

IIRC he was not happy about those coaches decisions... I'd guess he plays in both games, even if we're up a substantial amount. I'm also hoping to see Oz in the 4th of both, but we'd be pretty vanilla if he does see the field for multiple reasons.

[Joel]

If this great situation were to arise, I'd imagine that Peyton would play the first half of the game against Oakland and then sit. Probably the rest of the starters, too. I'm basing this on nothing, but I doubt Manning would sit the whole game, even if he happened to break the TD record this week.

I'm trying to remember - when the week 17 game last year vs. KC became a blowout, did Manning sit at all?
According to the box, Manning was 23/29 for 304 yds and 3 TDs; Osweiler was 2/4 for 12 yds. So Manning sat, but only on our last drive (which is how I remember that and all our blowouts.) http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201212300den.htm

Your main point's valid; it's a good idea for the starters to play at least a drive or two to stay loose and in their rhythm; in the SF example I noted, the starters only skipped the second half.


IIRC he was not happy about those coaches decisions... I'd guess he plays in both games, even if we're up a substantial amount. I'm also hoping to see Oz in the 4th of both, but we'd be pretty vanilla if he does see the field for multiple reasons.
One of the (hopefully) small annoyances about Manning is that he doesn't like leaving even games well in hand OR giving up practice time with the first team. Those who don't see why this is a problem are directed to the career stats of Jim Sorgi, Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky. Or just recall that losing Manning for the season is how Indy got the #1 overall pick.

[OrangeHoof]

Records are not important right now compared to locking up the #1 seed whether it happens this week or next week.

[BroncoNut]

we are going to have to face Baltimore again

[Joel]

Records are not important right now compared to locking up the #1 seed whether it happens this week or next week.
I agree that must be the priority: Records are transitory, but championships eternal. Manning's had the season passing TD record before, but it only took a couple years for Brady to break it and that was just 6 years ago. Meanwhile, the Rings and trophy Baltimore got last year are theirs to keep forever.


we are going to have to face Baltimore again
Yeah: In 2015, when the whole AFCN's on our regular season schedule again. The Ravens are a spent force and won't make the 2013 playoffs. Bet on Miami for the #6 wildcard, and the Bengals to win the AFCN convincingly next week.

[Northman]

I wouldnt count them out totally. They have a tall order this week with the Pats but they always play them tough and match up well. Cincy is tanking themselves so i could see the Ravens winning out.

[Joel]

I wouldnt count them out totally. They have a tall order this week with the Pats but they always play them tough and match up well. Cincy is tanking themselves so i could see the Ravens winning out.
Gronks injury may be the best thing that could've happened to Baltimore, but even before that and the narrow win @Detroit I thought the Ravens winning out was inconceivable, and I stand by that. Personally, I hope Baltimore wins this week but Cincy wins out, because then the Pats don't even get a bye, let alone homefield.

Then again, I think I'd rather play the Pats in Denver than Cincy right now. Just because a Bengals receiver fumbled a pass and the Steelers headhunted their punter doesn't mean they're tanking; they had ONE unlucky game after smashing Cleveland, edging SD and crushing Indy. They're legit; just a question of their secondarys depth and how Dalton does any given Sunday.

My favorite scenario is Cincy and Miami win their last two so not only does Baltimore miss the playoffs but NE is the #6 seed, but I probably don't have that kind of luck.

[pulse]

Gronks injury may be the best thing that could've happened to Baltimore, but even before that and the narrow win @Detroit I thought the Ravens winning out was inconceivable, and I stand by that. Personally, I hope Baltimore wins this week but Cincy wins out, because then the Pats don't even get a bye, let alone homefield.

Then again, I think I'd rather play the Pats in Denver than Cincy right now. Just because a Bengals receiver fumbled a pass and the Steelers headhunted their punter doesn't mean they're tanking; they had ONE unlucky game after smashing Cleveland, edging SD and crushing Indy. They're legit; just a question of their secondarys depth and how Dalton does any given Sunday.

My favorite scenario is Cincy and Miami win their last two so not only does Baltimore miss the playoffs but NE is the #6 seed, but I probably don't have that kind of luck.


You're forgetting about the Colts. If Baltimore beats New England and the Bengals lose either of their next two, Indy has the second seed. I think they can get the second seed even if Baltimore wins out, though that depends on how the final weeks play out with some other teams.

[OrangeHoof]

Baltimore and New England will have to be slain at some point whether by us or somebody. I'm not worried about Cincy or Miami. I think Indy is beatable but they sure gave us fits so I don't want to overlook them entirely.

[Joel]

You're forgetting about the Colts. If Baltimore beats New England and the Bengals lose either of their next two, Indy has the second seed. I think they can get the second seed even if Baltimore wins out, though that depends on how the final weeks play out with some other teams.
Only if Indy wins @Arrowhead, as I personally doubt they will. They're just not the same without Wayne; their other WRs are talented, but mostly young, which has led to lots of drops. Same problem's KCs had with more experienced WRs, actually, but they run better than Indy (though neither defends the run well.) I'm more worried about facing KC and Cincy than NE and Indy.


Baltimore and New England will have to be slain at some point whether by us or somebody. I'm not worried about Cincy or Miami. I think Indy is beatable but they sure gave us fits so I don't want to overlook them entirely.
I still think the Pats or Bengals will slay Baltimore before the playoffs even start and, history notwithstanding, Indy away from their dome doesn't worry me. Unless their WRs catch well thrown passes far better than they have done their offense isn't a threat in the cold, and Mathis is ultimately just about speed which isn't as great on grass instead of turf. In terms of history, I'd rather get more revenge on Baltimore (whom Manning even beat on the road in the playoffs in that 40° game the infamous stat deliberately excludes) than face NE, but Indy? Meh.

For what it's worth, there's actually a scenario where NE misses the playoffs entirely: If the Dolphins and Ravens win and NE loses their last 2, plus the Bengals win this week, then Miami wins the AFCE, Baltimore wins the AFCN and Cincy's the #6 seed for the third year straight, leaving NE nowhere (Miami could actually get the #2 seed and a bye if the Colts lose their last two.) Sadly, requiring the Bengals be #6 seed means there's no way NE AND Baltimore can miss the playoffs. I fear neither, but hate both enough to wish they'd be postseason specators.

[CrazyHorse]

I want the Pats to win this week. Not only to keep the Ravens out of the playoffs but to keep us from getting complacent.

[Joel]

I want the Pats to win this week. Not only to keep the Ravens out of the playoffs but to keep us from getting complacent.
Both good points, though I suspect KC will keep us from getting complacent (and raise more questions about whether Indy will be in the playoffs any longer than last year.)

[CrazyHorse]

Both good points, though I suspect KC will keep us from getting complacent (and raise more questions about whether Indy will be in the playoffs any longer than last year.)

I think KC wins at Arrowhead but they'll likely rematch at Indianapolis where I think the Colts win in the playoffs. At least I hope they do. I want a rematch against then and not the Chiefs.

[VonDoom]

I think KC wins at Arrowhead but they'll likely rematch at Indianapolis where I think the Colts win in the playoffs. At least I hope they do. I want a rematch against then and not the Chiefs.

Agreed. I'd rather get the Colts in our building than KC for a third time. The risk/reward is far worse if we play the Chiefs. Also, don't count out the Colts on Sunday. I've been down on them for a while but they can still bring it if they want to, and I'm still not convinced KC can beat a good team when it counts. My concern would be more that the Colts will play it safe with relatively nothing to lose, on the chance that they don't want to let KC see too much should they meet again in the playoffs.

[SR]

I'm selfish and I want Peyton to break the yardage and TD records.

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

I'm selfish and I want Peyton to break the yardage and TD records.

He'll probably nreak the TD record this weekend.

[Joel]

I think KC wins at Arrowhead but they'll likely rematch at Indianapolis where I think the Colts win in the playoffs. At least I hope they do. I want a rematch against then and not the Chiefs.
I'd rather play Indy than KC, too, which is why I'm worried Indy won't win this week or at home in the playoffs. If our run D can't overcome the loss of Vickerson and Wolfe and/or KCs receivers decide to catch all the passes they dropped the first two times we played, that could get ugly. I still have more faith in Manning and our WRs and TEs than in Smith than theirs, but I'd rather not have it come down to which of us has the ball last, because it's easier to control the clock with good running (i.e. Charles and Smith) than passing (i.e. Manning.)

I just have no faith in Indy; their D is always soft and their running and receivers are inconsistent. The Chiefs are good; it's just unclear HOW good (that's why we have playoffs.)

Regardless, unless/until KC loses the pressure to avoid being the #5 seed is at least as great as the pressure to remain the #1. It's great that NE and Cincy both lost last week, but we still did ourselves no favors with the SD loss, and KC can still make us regret far more than NE can.

[Joel]

I'm selfish and I want Peyton to break the yardage and TD records.
We certainly are selfish about things to which we contribute not a whit and which would "earn" us naught but vicarious bragging rights. :tongue:

[nevcraw]

I absolutely care squat about the records… nor do I want any of them to win any more awards.. Thanks SI you ******* maggots. I would prefer they play out the season without any unnec. time off save the bye. They are not on a roll or close to playing very well and need to recapture the offensive swagger of the first part of the season and the defensive swagger from mid last year. Tall order -- no records nor awards nor time off will help them do that. They have to go to work! It's Super Bowl Win or bust. fo reals!

and for them to have a real chance to win it all, they will have to be battle tested by beating some tough tough teams.. bring on Baltimore, NE, and Dallas :-) ok fine seattle.

[Joel]

I absolutely care squat about the records… nor do I want any of them to win any more awards.. Thanks SI you ******* maggots. I would prefer they play out the season without any unnec. time off save the bye. They are not on a roll or close to playing very well and need to recapture the offensive swagger of the first part of the season and the defensive swagger from mid last year. Tall order -- no records nor awards nor time off will help them do that. They have to go to work! It's Super Bowl Win or bust. fo reals!

and for them to have a real chance to win it all, they will have to be battle tested by beating some tough tough teams.. bring on Baltimore, NE, and Dallas :-) ok fine seattle.
Dallas? My dad raised me on 'em, but even I can't buy into that; if Romo couldn't handle the 2007 Seahawks THIS group will have him for lunch (well, an appertizer; they have 'roids for lunch. ;))

I generally agree with pretty much everyone you've said though; we haven't looked like champions since we DID play Dallas, yet have continued to buy our own BS and phone in too many games just like last year ANYWAY. You make a good point that the LAST thing we need is ANYTHING that encourages the inexplicably persistent notion we can without trying just because we spent two years curbstomping teams EVERYONE curbstomped and only managed to go 4-7 against DECENT teams.

It's like if a HS kid decided he was Cassanova because he "scored" with every chick at the cathouse: No matter how many times you do it, it's not an accomplishment if you're just one of many.

[NightTerror218]

I do not think Peyton will want a 2 week break from game time he plays at least a half. Records do not matter as much to him as a W does.

[Simple Jaded]

Vicariously I, live while the whole world dies
You all need it too, don't lie

Why can't we just admit it?
Why can't we just admit it?

[TXBRONC]

If Denver clinches the division and home field advantage I can still Manning starting against Oakland but not necessarily finishing the game.

[Joel]

If Denver clinches the division and home field advantage I can still Manning starting against Oakland but not necessarily finishing the game.
Sounds about right. We want to keep starters fresh (especially with a week off coming) but there's a reason the coaches made Manning skip Wednesday practices no matter how much it chafed him. Everyone plays hurt in December or not at all, so it's natural to lean toward the latter if/when we've clinched homefield. Play enough to maintaing rhythm and chemistry, but not risk injury.

With that in mind, I wonder if Wolfe will stay on the bench with Welker until the playoffs (assuming we see either on the field again this year.) It's one thing to avoid new injuries and another to give existing ones time to heal (where, once again, Mannings legs could be a factor; I haven't watched his feet enough to know if his ankles are still taped for games.)

[FanInAZ]

As bad as the Texans are, its possible he could break the TD record this week. However, its completely unrealistic for him to break the yards record this week. He could get within about 150 yards of it this week, then get the rest in the 1st half next week.

[TXBRONC]

As bad as the Texans are, its possible he could break the TD record this week. However, its completely unrealistic for him to break the yards record this week. He could get within about 150 yards of it this week, then get the rest in the 1st half next week.

True but if Manning has just a ho hum performance of 189 yards passing he will cross the 5,000 yard threshold.

[Joel]

As bad as the Texans are, its possible he could break the TD record this week. However, its completely unrealistic for him to break the yards record this week. He could get within about 150 yards of it this week, then get the rest in the 1st half next week.
On the TD record, it really just depends. The Texans AREN'T bad, they've just had a string of bad luck and two years of key FA losses. There aren't many blowouts on their record though: 8 of their 12 losses were by <1 score, and a halfway decent kicker alone would've been enough to more than double their wins.

Their pass rush is fierce, even after Brian Cushing had two season-ending injuries in as many years, and that could give Manning fits if our line doesn't do a really solid job. On the other hand, their secondary will seemingly ALWAYS be vulnerable to the long ball, so Manning could light them up if well protected. On yet a third hand, they're far less fierce vs. the run and we've been sticking with the run even when it wasn't working, too keep the pass rush honest; if Moreno or Ball have a 200 yd game in a blowout, Manning probably doesn't toss many TDs.

Further, Houston's always run very well and we just lost a game because a team with the 10th worst rushing average ran on us all day to keep Manning sidelined. There's just no telling. I don't think he'll throw for 500 yds regardless; his career best is 472, which would still leave him nearly 200 yds short of the 666 he needs for the record.