Week 15 Broncos Playoff Scenarios

[BroncoWave]

In case anyone was wondering, these are our scenario to clinch the division and various seeds this week.

Division:
Win + KC loss to Indy

First Round Bye:
Win + KC loss to Indy

#1 Seed:
Win + KC loss to Indy + NE loss to Baltimore

And this is unrelated to Denver, but I found it interesting. If Baltimore wins out, NE loses their last 2, and Indy and Cincy lose at least one of their last 2, Baltimore could sneak into the 2 seed. Seems unlikely, but it is a possibility out there. The 2 seed is literally wide open if Baltimore beats NE next week.

[CrazyHorse]

I want absolutely nothing to do with the Ravens in the playoffs. Same with the Chiefs.

[BroncoWave]

I want absolutely nothing to do with the Ravens in the playoffs. Same with the Chiefs.

Same, those two matchups would scare me. It's funny that with 2 weeks left Baltimore could get the 2 seed and they could miss the playoffs. Really shows how jam-packed everyone at the top of the AFC is.

KC is the team I least want to see though. Their offense is rolling now and it's tough to beat a team 3 times. I REALLY hope Indy takes care of them in round 1, but I don't see it happening.

[Broncolingus]

Thx for posting, Wave...

[Dzone]

We might have to beat the Chiefs 3 times in a year. I wonder how many times that has happened.

[CrazyHorse]

Same, those two matchups would scare me. It's funny that with 2 weeks left Baltimore could get the 2 seed and they could miss the playoffs. Really shows how jam-packed everyone at the top of the AFC is.

KC is the team I least want to see though. Their offense is rolling now and it's tough to beat a team 3 times. I REALLY hope Indy takes care of them in round 1, but I don't see it happening.

I see the best case scenario is the seeding stays the same and we host Indy then NE.

[CrazyHorse]

We might have to beat the Chiefs 3 times in a year. I wonder how many times that has happened.

The team that won the first 2 games actually has the advantage. It's something like 13-7 if you include the Cowboys and Eagles game.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/319153-beating-a-team-three-times-in-one-season-easier-done-than-said

[BroncoWave]

The team that won the first 2 games actually has the advantage. It's something like 13-7 if you include the Cowboys and Eagles game.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/319153-beating-a-team-three-times-in-one-season-easier-done-than-said

13-7 is still a much lower percentage than the 40-0 those teams were heading into those games. So while it is a winning record, it does prove that it's tougher to do it the third time.

[Northman]

Somehow i will be extremely pissed if KC goes and wins it all this year.

[TXBRONC]

I want absolutely nothing to do with the Ravens in the playoffs. Same with the Chiefs.

Neither of those teams would scare me. There have a lot of justifiable complaints about Denver's defense but Chiefs defense isn't the world beater that they were at the beginning of the year. The Ravens gritty but they're not intimidating.

[Joel]

In case anyone was wondering, these are our scenario to clinch the division and various seeds this week.

Division:
Win + KC loss to Indy

First Round Bye:
Win + KC loss to Indy

#1 Seed:
Win + KC loss to Indy + NE loss to Baltimore

And this is unrelated to Denver, but I found it interesting. If Baltimore wins out, NE loses their last 2, and Indy and Cincy lose at least one of their last 2, Baltimore could sneak into the 2 seed. Seems unlikely, but it is a possibility out there. The 2 seed is literally wide open if Baltimore beats NE next week.
No way Baltimore wins out; no way they make the playoffs. I committed to that when NE still had Gronk, but I'll man up and stick with it. Cincy won't fumble a punt at their own 1 against Baltimore, and I doubt their receivers fumble away any catches. After all, I committed last year to them winning the AFCN, so I have to stick by that, too.

I have more faith in SD beating KC at home than Indy winning @KC though; 'fraid we've gotta win our own division, not wait for someone else to do it for us. I wouldn't be shocked or displeased if Baltimore beat NE at home for us though; the trick will be beating Detroit and Cincy on the road. Miami's looking really good for that #6 seed (had picked them, but it's much safer now.)

[Joel]

The team that won the first 2 games actually has the advantage. It's something like 13-7 if you include the Cowboys and Eagles game.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/319153-beating-a-team-three-times-in-one-season-easier-done-than-said
It's one of those misleading stats; commentators talk about it being really rare, but it's rare because the only way to beat a team three times in a year is

1) Make the playoffs (seldom an easy task,)
2) Sweep a division team (hard enough in itself against a good division team) that
3) Still manages to ALSO make the playoffs despite those two losses.

Even then either team could well be eliminated before they face each other in that third game. So, it's rare to even PLAY a team thrice in one year, necessarily meaning it's even rarer to win all three, but that doesn't mean the team that lost the first two isn't at a disadvantage (especially since is almost certainly means they'll be on the road.) Not to mention division games are always closer because the teams, fans and coaches know each other well, and even the road team knows the stadium well, too.

[FanInAZ]

The team that won the first 2 games actually has the advantage. It's something like 13-7 if you include the Cowboys and Eagles game.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/319153-beating-a-team-three-times-in-one-season-easier-done-than-said

Not only have we never beaten the Chiefs 3 times in the same season, but we never beaten any of our division rivals 3 times in the same season. However, we have beaten the Chiefs 3 times in the same calendar year. After splitting with them during the '97 season, we beat them in a play-off game played in January '98. We then swept them during the '98 season.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/game_query.cgi?tm1=den&tm2=kan&yr=all

As far as the Raiders, we've met them in the play-offs twice. The first time was in '77 when we beat them, but we split the 2 regular season meetings. The second time was in '93 when we lost to them in the play-offs after getting swept by them during the regular season.

Worse than that, we lost 4 times to them during the '94 calendar year. That's because the second match-up of the '93 season, its season finally, was played the first weekend of January '94. We lost to them the next week in the play-offs & then got swept during the '94 season, the last of which was the final loss of 6 consecutive loses to the Raiders.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/game_query.cgi?tm1=den&tm2=rai&yr=all

As far as the Chargers, we've never met them in the play-offs, but we did meet the Seahawks in '83 back when they were the 5th team in the AFCW. We lost that game after having splitting with them in the regular seasons. We actually played them 4 times that calendar year, losing of them. We lost the season finally of the strike wrecked '82 season that got pushed back to the first week of January '83. Then we finished the 4 games in the calendar year by losing the play-off game that was played the last week of December '83.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/game_query.cgi?tm1=den&tm2=sea&yr=all

[FanInAZ]

It's one of those misleading stats; commentators talk about it being really rare, but it's rare because the only way to beat a team three times in a year is

1) Make the playoffs (seldom an easy task,)
2) Sweep a division team (hard enough in itself against a good division team) that
3) Still manages to ALSO make the playoffs despite those two losses.

Even then either team could well be eliminated before they face each other in that third game. So, it's rare to even PLAY a team thrice in one year, necessarily meaning it's even rarer to win all three, but that doesn't mean the team that lost the first two isn't at a disadvantage (especially since is almost certainly means they'll be on the road.) Not to mention division games are always closer because the teams, fans and coaches know each other well, and even the road team knows the stadium well, too.

The stats he quoted are legitimate and to the point.

[Magnificent Seven]

Playoff picture: Early Week 16 scenarios


DENVER has clinched playoff berth.

Can clinch AFC West title and first-round bye with:

1) Win + Kansas City loss

Can clinch home-field advantage throughout playoffs with:

1) Win + Kansas City loss + New England loss/tie

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24376949/playoff-picture-early-week-16-scenarios

[tripp]

Somehow i will be extremely pissed if KC goes and wins it all this year.

I will be too, not because they are the Kansas City Chiefs one of our most hated rivals. But, because they finished 2-14 last year, they weren't supposed to have the season they're having this year, this was supposed to be our year, we have the future HoF QB, we won the sweep stakes, it's our season! :mad:

[MasterShake]

I want absolutely nothing to do with the Ravens in the playoffs. Same with the Chiefs.

Agreed, though given a choice I'd take the Ravens because they are so inconsistent. I just don't like the idea of having to beat a team for a third time.

[OrangeHoof]

its season finally,

Finale, as in "the last act" not

Finally, as in "at long last"

[Joel]

The stats he quoted are legitimate and to the point.
The stats he quoted show the team with the regular season sweep won the rematch 65% of the time. Announcers say, "it's very rare for one team to beat another three times in a season," like it's some ominous portent: No, IF that matchup recurs, the same team usually wins; the rarity is for two teams to play each other thrice in one season AT ALL.

Put it this wa: They could as easily say, "it's very rare for one team to beat one that beat them twice that season." That's literally twice as true as the other stat, but you don't sell adtime saying, "Not only has x already beaten y twice this year, but that historically gives them 2:1 odds to win again; watch anyway?"

[Joel]

I will be too, not because they are the Kansas City Chiefs one of our most hated rivals. But, because they finished 2-14 last year, they weren't supposed to have the season they're having this year, this was supposed to be our year, we have the future HoF QB, we won the sweep stakes, it's our season! :mad:
I think you may need to get used to that; I still contend KCs talent the last two years as been closer to their 7-9 record in 2011 than either last years 2-14 finish or this years 11-3 (so far.) People have been predicting big things for them based on their talent for a while, and it looks like they finally have a coach good enough to exploit that talent. Not only that, but if San Diego had a decent secondary they'd be a solid 10 win team. The AFCW is likely to be pretty competitive for the foreseeable future; just one more reason not to squander opportunities with Manning.

We REALLY should've gotten it done last year (though I can't recall the last time a QB switched teams and won a SB the same season.) Oh, well; yesterday's gone.

[BroncoWave]

The stats he quoted show the team with the regular season sweep won the rematch 65% of the time. Announcers say, "it's very rare for one team to beat another three times in a season," like it's some ominous portent: No, IF that matchup recurs, the same team usually wins; the rarity is for two teams to play each other thrice in one season AT ALL.

Put it this wa: They could as easily say, "it's very rare for one team to beat one that beat them twice that season." That's literally twice as true as the other stat, but you don't sell adtime saying, "Not only has x already beaten y twice this year, but that historically gives them 2:1 odds to win again; watch anyway?"

65% is a lot less than 100% though, so it is tougher to beat them the 3rd time.

As I said earlier, in those 20 instances of a team beating a team twice then facing them in the playoffs, they are 40-0 in the regular season (obviously). That drops to 13-7 in the playoff matchups. So while they still have the advantage, it is in fact tougher to beat them the third time.

[DenBronx]

I guess im the only one who wants Balt to come to Denver. Bring it bitches!!!!

And yeah...not scared of NE either.

[Joel]

65% is a lot less than 100% though, so it is tougher to beat them the 3rd time.

As I said earlier, in those 20 instances of a team beating a team twice then facing them in the playoffs, they are 40-0 in the regular season (obviously). That drops to 13-7 in the playoff matchups. So while they still have the advantage, it is in fact tougher to beat them the third time.
Law of averages; it's tough to beat ANYONE three times—in the same year or not—but all the stars needed to align for someone to have the CHANCE in one year explains the rarity announcers like to ominously invoke. Even when it happens though, I'd rather be the team with a 65% chance of a playoff win at home than the one with a 35% chance of a playoff road loss.

[Joel]

If you want some real fun, try explaining how the Steelers can make the playoffs or why the Jets can't; I still can't figure it out even after ESPN showed me the scenario. All I know is the Jets beating the Browns would (somehow) help Pitt, maybe because it would give them a better SoS/V since they beat the Jets. http://tinyurl.com/o6qptfn http://tinyurl.com/oy9l68f

[zbeg]

(though I can't recall the last time a QB switched teams and won a SB the same season.)

Trent Dilfer (1999 Bucs; 2000 Ravens) and Brad Johnson (2001 Redskins; 2002 Bucs) were the last ones.

[Joel]

Trent Dilfer (1999 Bucs; 2000 Ravens) and Brad Johnson (2001 Redskins; 2002 Bucs) were the last ones.
Nice catch, though most people would argue those QBs were just along for the ride. Still, they had to at least be good enough to win the starting job and not throw away games.

[TXBRONC]

I guess im the only one who wants Balt to come to Denver. Bring it bitches!!!!

And yeah...not scared of NE either.


I don't care if it's the Ravens, the Patriots, or anyone else that's going to make the playoffs.