Our Chances to Make it to the Big Game?

[WARHORSE]

We obviously have woes on defense at the moment. But looking at the AFC teams likely headed to the playoffs, I like our chances against any of them. Before the KC hooters start chirping, Im just gonna say stop Jamaal Charles and you stop KC.

Pats? I have no fear of them whatsoever and wouldnt even if they had Gronk and we played in Foxboro. It would be a different game imo if we played again.

Indy? No.

Cincy? No.

Im not just declaring us a shoe-in but I am saying I like our chances.


That being said we really need to get healthy if we are going to have a chance.

We have to win against Houston and I think we need to do it without Welker regardless if he passes the concussion test or not. His health in the playoffs is top priority.


Whomever makes it to the superbowl from the NFC, theyre going to have a defense. We are going to need everyone.


We may need to consider a free agent Dlineman to replace Vickerson.....................Seymour? yikes. Id do it if he was effective.

[ShaneFalco]

Seymour would be awesome, but i doubt he has been training.

[SM19]

40% or so, which is a better chance than any other AFC team's got. For better or worse, once you're in the playoffs, it helps to be good, but you've got to be lucky too.

[Joel]

If there's a rental out there who can genuinely replace Vickerson he'd be more than welcome, but I kind of doubt there is at this point of the season. The Pats and Bengals wouldn't be suffering through the loss of Wilfork, Kelly and Atkins if there were. I agree we'd have a good shot against any of the AFC teams because each has serious vulnerabilities of their own (which just goes back to how good the AFC isn't this year: Each is still good enough to lead their respective divisions by 2+ games even after NE and Cincy lost to division rivals.)

So, yeah, we can do it, though after the Bolts came into our game with the 10th worst rushing average and put 177 rushing yds on a D with the 7th BEST rushing average, I can't help wondering if we can contain Charles as effectively as our last two games. Also, Smith threw very accurately in both those games, but we were fortunate that his receivers dropped many of them. They caught 17 of his 20 passes today; I'm not sure we can count on their terminal case of dropsy lasting three games. Of all our potential playoff foes, they and Cincy worry me most.

That's mainly because the rest of the AFC is so weak though; Indy without Reggie Wayne is usually a very average team, mainly because THEIR young receivers drop lots of balls, too, and their D isn't good enough to win games when that happens. The Pats without Gronk don't have much offense OR defense; if we can stop Ridley Manning should bury them at home (but, there again, I'm far less confident in our run D than a week ago; hopefully that was just an off day for them on a short week, but I sure hope we get Wolfe back, and wish Big Vick could come with him.)

Our biggest obstacle though was and remains us. If we try to phone in a playoff game like we did last year it'll be over before it starts. If we skip the first half and spot someone a 21-7 lead or let them get within a 2 PAT of a halftime tie, we won't be able to bury them in the second half like we did 3-11 Washington and 4-10 Jax. If we give them 4 turnovers like we did against Indy and NE, it won't end any better than those games did, and probably not as well.

So what are the odds our team shows up two games straight and plays kickoff to gun? 50/50 for each game, and they've gotta do it twice, so 25% chance of making the Big Dance.

Then we just have to beat a team that's been head and shoulders above everyone else (including us) all year. Their only two losses were a desperate homestand by the defending NFC champs and another road game against another playoff team who blocked a FG and returned it for a TD: Their foes' combined victory margin was still just 8 pts. Even on the road, they're impressive.

[WARHORSE]

If there's a rental out there who can genuinely replace Vickerson he'd be more than welcome, but I kind of doubt there is at this point of the season. The Pats and Bengals wouldn't be suffering through the loss of Wilfork, Kelly and Atkins if there were. I agree we'd have a good shot against any of the AFC teams because each has serious vulnerabilities of their own (which just goes back to how good the AFC isn't this year: Each is still good enough to lead their respective divisions by 2+ games even after NE and Cincy lost to division rivals.)

So, yeah, we can do it, though after the Bolts came into our game with the 10th worst rushing average and put 177 rushing yds on a D with the 7th BEST rushing average, I can't help wondering if we can contain Charles as effectively as our last two games. Also, Smith threw very accurately in both those games, but we were fortunate that his receivers dropped many of them. They caught 17 of his 20 passes today; I'm not sure we can count on their terminal case of dropsy lasting three games. Of all our potential playoff foes, they and Cincy worry me most.

That's mainly because the rest of the AFC is so weak though; Indy without Reggie Wayne is usually a very average team, mainly because THEIR young receivers drop lots of balls, too, and their D isn't good enough to win games when that happens. The Pats without Gronk don't have much offense OR defense; if we can stop Ridley Manning should bury them at home (but, there again, I'm far less confident in our run D than a week ago; hopefully that was just an off day for them on a short week, but I sure hope we get Wolfe back, and wish Big Vick could come with him.)

Our biggest obstacle though was and remains us. If we try to phone in a playoff game like we did last year it'll be over before it starts. If we skip the first half and spot someone a 21-7 lead or let them get within a 2 PAT of a halftime tie, we won't be able to bury them in the second half like we did 3-11 Washington and 4-10 Jax. If we give them 4 turnovers like we did against Indy and NE, it won't end any better than those games did, and probably not as well.

So what are the odds our team shows up two games straight and plays kickoff to gun? 50/50 for each game, and they've gotta do it twice, so 25% chance of making the Big Dance.

Then we just have to beat a team that's been head and shoulders above everyone else (including us) all year. Their only two losses were a desperate homestand by the defending NFC champs and another road game against another playoff team who blocked a FG and returned it for a TD: Their foes' combined victory margin was still just 8 pts. Even on the road, they're impressive.


I think KC is the most formidable opponent as things stand right now, and as far as Charles is concerned, he killed the fade today with receptions not runs. Three screens for scores? Thats called dumb d-coordinator and players.

I think we can get to the superbowl and if we do we will most assuredly be the underdog..........not a better situation for us imo.


Not to harp, but we do need Wolfe, Champ, Moore and the whole d to be healthy.

[Hawgdriver]

I was going to say maybe 7:3 or 25 or 6 to 4. Am I right? I think it involves prime numbers or a Fibonacci sequence, but can't be sure.

[Joel]

I think KC is the most formidable opponent as things stand right now, and as far as Charles is concerned, he killed the fade today with receptions not runs. Three screens for scores? Thats called dumb d-coordinator and players.
I didn't see the game so didn't know half his TDs were catches not runs; not sure how to feel about that. The Chiefs have been very lucky with injuries in a year that's decimated multiple key starters for all other AFC contenders. The worst longest injury I think they've had is Houston, and I'm a little surprised he's been out as long as he has. Compare that to everyone else losing a(t least one) Pro Bowler or HoFer for the year and maybe their record is as much due to that as to schedule.


I think we can get to the superbowl and if we do we will most assuredly be the underdog..........not a better situation for us imo.
At this point a lot may depend on how the league handles Seattles secondary (assuming they get that far; I think we'd have a decent shot against anyone else.) With everyone popping for 'roids I can't help wondering who'll they'll have in the playoffs, and I just can't believe THIS NFL will let them keep knocking around WRs like PI doesn't exist.


Not to harp, but we do need Wolfe, Champ, Moore and the whole d to be healthy.
I'm starting to think Mr. Bowlen imploring Champ to play against Jax ruined our chance to get him at anything like his customary level this year. We didn't need him for that game and lost him early against Washington, and not having those two weeks plus the bye to get fully healthy could be the difference. After playing KC he said himself he was on limited snaps and feeling not just his age but the rust of not being able to practice much on a bum foot. Even if he came back now, is he in playoff form after sitting so long? Can he go 60 minutes in Mile High air?

With Wolfe it's a different question; we can only guess when (if) he'll be back because we can only guess what's wrong with him. We need him if only to prevent defenders simply doubling Miller to seal off that whole side in pass protection; Ayers is solid against the run, but no sack machine. Personally, I prefer Adams playing centerfield at FS and Ihenacho playing enforcer at SS to Moore doing either, but after surgeons made a VERTICAL incision in his leg muscle sheath and he had follow up surgery last week, the point may be moot.

It's a daunting task on D; a third of our starters are out and it's uncertain ANY will be back for the playoffs. If we could just get Champ at a respectable level I'd feel a lot better with him, DRC and Harris in nickel and expect Webster or Clark to be passable at dime, but neither of those two can cut it in the slot, much less outside against top WRs. Maybe if we had a pass rush, but right now we don't, and without Wolfe to draw doubles against the pass and Vickerson to draw them against the run, our front seven needs help.

We'll just have to see how far we can go with the benefit of all other AFC contenders (except KC) being beat up as bad or worse than we (if it were anyone but NE, I'd feel bad for them.)

[OrangeHoof]

They say it is really difficult to beat a team three times in one year. The Chiefs would come in to such a contest with a large chip on their shoulders while the Broncos could be complacent as they were Thursday against the Chargers.

Honestly, any of the teams in the playoffs *could* beat the Broncos. They just have to hold down Manning and the offense while dominating our defense. The Colts, Chargers and (to a lesser extent) Patriots have proven it can be done. Further, Denver has to stop falling behind in the first half of games and take the other team out early.

The homers who can't resist thrusting their index fingers in the air really need to come to reality that the Broncos are presently just an above-average team, not a worldbeater.

[CrazyHorse]

We have the best chance of any AFC team. Pretty good I say. That's all that matters at this point.

[Northman]

I dont think any team has the best chance. There really is no better team than the next regardless of seeding.

[BroncoWave]

Believe it or not, I agree with Joel. We will need 2 wins to get to NY and every playoff game is a toss-up IMO. The odds of winning two coin flips in a row is 25%. So that's the number I'll go with.

[CrazyHorse]

I dont think any team has the best chance. There really is no better team than the next regardless of seeding.

So the currently 6th seeded Dolphins have the same chance as the Seahawks to make it to the Super Bowl?

Or are you only referring specifically to the AFC?

[Northman]

So the currently 6th seeded Dolphins have the same chance as the Seahawks to make it to the Super Bowl?

Or are you only referring specifically to the AFC?

Nah, any of them. So many times teams have just gotten hot and won out including the 98' Broncos and 2012 Ravens. Just too much parity in the league.

[BroncoNut]

it all depends on where we are at on the gamedays unitil then. depends on if we are a disciplined football team that doesn't fall into the trap of looking beyond what needs to be done in preparation and performance on any given Sunday until then; if there is a then that is

[Dapper Dan]

We've got a 50% chance to win each game.

[BroncoNut]

We've got a 50% chance to win each game.

how do you figure?

[Dapper Dan]

how do you figure?

I don't know. I suck at math.

[Joel]

Nah, any of them. So many times teams have just gotten hot and won out including the 98' Broncos and 2012 Ravens. Just too much parity in the league.
I'm not sure how much is parity and how much professionalism, or lack thereof. It's what made picking next years champion before this one's was crowned so easy in that mid-nineties run:

After scoring TDs for the wrong team on their first three drives of the NFCCG, and being humiliated on national TV, you just KNEW Dallas would be unstoppable in '95.
So when they got to the NFCCG against Green Bay they left THAT team in the same "we'll show those SOBs next year" mindset for '96.
Then Denver got humiliated at home by a second year expansion team in their first playoff game of '97; same deal.
The '98 Broncos had nothing to prove: They were just THAT good.

After that it get it got harder (though I really have no one but myself to blame for picking the Oilers in '99; after growing up with those choke jobs I should've expected what happened.) There were still a few teams that put their game face on every week, namely New England, Pitt and Baltimore, who just happen to have won over half the SBs since then, even when they had to do it as wildcards against a series of teams that were much better on paper but much worse on the field.

One would THINK after a nationally broadcast embarrassment against a Ravens team we embarrased at home a month earlier Denver would be in the same "nothing will stop us, nothing will distract us" mode, but it sure hasn't looked that way this year. Maybe against KC, and the Raiders, but even in our vengeful season opener that shell of a Ravens team led us 17-14 at the half before we pasted them with 21 unanswered in the third to get payback that really couldn't pay back anything unless they had to forfeit their Rings.

There's too little of the '97 Broncos or '95 Cowboys on this team, and too much of Leon Lett high-stepping his way to the end zone and watching himself on the Jumbotron without noticing Don Beebe streaking downfield to prevent his team eclipsing the '9ers for the most points in SB history. Hubris ate nemesis, or quem deus vult perdere, dementat prius; dealers choice: Same result.

[Northman]

I'm not sure how much is parity and how much professionalism, or lack thereof. It's what made picking next years champion before this one's was crowned so easy in that mid-nineties run:

After scoring TDs for the wrong team on their first three drives of the NFCCG, and being humiliated on national TV, you just KNEW Dallas would be unstoppable in '95.
So when they got to the NFCCG against Green Bay they left THAT team in the same "we'll show those SOBs next year" mindset for '96.
Then Denver got humiliated at home by a second year expansion team in their first playoff game of '97; same deal.
The '98 Broncos had nothing to prove: They were just THAT good.

After that it get it got harder (though I really have no one but myself to blame for picking the Oilers in '99; after growing up with those choke jobs I should've expected what happened.) There were still a few teams that put their game face on every week, namely New England, Pitt and Baltimore, who just happen to have won over half the SBs since then, even when they had to do it as wildcards against a series of teams that were much better on paper but much worse on the field.

One would THINK after a nationally broadcast embarrassment against a Ravens team we embarrased at home a month earlier Denver would be in the same "nothing will stop us, nothing will distract us" mode, but it sure hasn't looked that way this year. Maybe against KC, and the Raiders, but even in our vengeful season opener that shell of a Ravens team led us 17-14 at the half before we pasted them with 21 unanswered in the third to get payback that really couldn't pay back anything unless they had to forfeit their Rings.

There's too little of the '97 Broncos or '95 Cowboys on this team, and too much of Leon Lett high-stepping his way to the end zone and watching himself on the Jumbotron without noticing Don Beebe streaking downfield to prevent his team eclipsing the '9ers for the most points in SB history. Hubris ate nemesis, or quem deus vult perdere, dementat prius; dealers choice: Same result.

Well, yea. There wasnt much parity back when Denver won their SB in 98' but i was only pointing out with the example as too a team having to go on the road to reach the SB. While Denver was a strong team its not like they had to have homefield to accomplish that task.

[BroncoWave]

Well, yea. There wasnt much parity back when Denver won their SB in 98' but i was only pointing out with the example as too a team having to go on the road to reach the SB. While Denver was a strong team its not like they had to have homefield to accomplish that task.

Not a single person on this board is saying that you have to have homefield to win it all. Only that it helps your odds. We all remember the 97 Broncos.

[tomjonesrocks]

I agree with the sentiment of most posts but for me it varies depending on who Denver faces.

If Miami were to upset the Bengals in the WC game (and Balt really does get shut out) I'd give them almost no shot against Denver. I also just don't see the Colts beating Denver at home--I'd see that as very low odds despite the distractions Irsay will try to concoct.

KC, NE, and Cin could all be toss up games depending on who is hot and who isn't, with NE scaring me by far the most. Cin you just don't know which Dalton shows up.

[Broncolingus]

I think Denver has as good of a chance as any team to win the Conference Championship...even with the current defense.

...I don't like the odds in the Super Bowl against the top NFC teams right now (NO excluded of course) and the physical play they bring.

JMO...

[CrazyHorse]

I think Denver has as good of a chance as any team to win the Conference Championship...even with the current defense.

...I don't like the odds in the Super Bowl against the top NFC teams right now (NO excluded of course) and the physical play they bring.

JMO...

By then, one can only hope the Seahawks learn about something called defensive pass interference.

[Broncolingus]

By then, one can only hope the Seahawks learn about something called defensive pass interference.

Yeah, good point...

[artie_dale]

Teams I fear this time of year are teams like Miami & Baltimore. Miami's confidence must be through the roof right now and Baltimore already did it last year.

I think our chances are great, but things like momentum & tempo (by the other team) have done us in before.

Speaking of momentum & tempo, losing the way we did against one of the middle to upper tier teams (the Chargers) with the likes of Houston & Oakland left to play, does make me worry about what type of confidence the team will have even if we do win these next two games convincingly.

[Slick]

They say it is really difficult to beat a team three times in one year. The Chiefs would come in to such a contest with a large chip on their shoulders while the Broncos could be complacent as they were Thursday against the Chargers.

Honestly, any of the teams in the playoffs *could* beat the Broncos. They just have to hold down Manning and the offense while dominating our defense. The Colts, Chargers and (to a lesser extent) Patriots have proven it can be done. Further, Denver has to stop falling behind in the first half of games and take the other team out early.

The homers who can't resist thrusting their index fingers in the air really need to come to reality that the Broncos are presently just an above-average team, not a worldbeater.

I agree with your post here but I have a question. Who exactly are the world beaters in the NFL? Which team is significantly better than the Denver Broncos this year?

[BroncoNut]

Teams I fear this time of year are teams like Miami & Baltimore. Miami's confidence must be through the roof right now and Baltimore already did it last year.

I think our chances are great, but things like momentum & tempo (by the other team) have done us in before.

Speaking of momentum & tempo, losing the way we did against one of the middle to upper tier teams (the Chargers) with the likes of Houston & Oakland left to play, does make me worry about what type of confidence the team will have even if we do win these next two games convincingly.

toatally AD. it's how you play in December and I do worry that Denver may not want to play as rought as the teams you mention here

[capt. Jack]

We can get it done! If we have a good game, get a couple breaks, we can beat anybody, including ourselves!
:)

[Hawgdriver]

I agree with your post here but I have a question. Who exactly are the world beaters in the NFL? Which team is significantly better than the Denver Broncos this year?

Seahawks. Remember the preseason ownage? Has much changed, besides losing Clady, Wolfe, Moore, Vickerson, and so on?

Not gettin all Joel on ya here brother, but yeah, I think the way they are playing,--solid, disciplined, consistent-- may be be significantly better. Then again, most of the year people say the same about the Broncos, so maybe it's a wash. Damn I'd be pleased as a frenchman in a retreat march to see that SB matchup.

[artie_dale]

Seahawks. Remember the preseason ownage? Has much changed, besides losing Clady, Wolfe, Moore, Vickerson, and so on?

Not gettin all Joel on ya here brother, but yeah, I think the way they are playing,--solid, disciplined, consistent-- may be be significantly better. Then again, most of the year people say the same about the Broncos, so maybe it's a wash. Damn I'd be pleased as a frenchman in a retreat march to see that SB matchup.

I think the Seahawks' worst enemy isn't the team that has more weapons against them, but the team who's defense matches up against their offense the best. A team that defends the run well with the speed to contain a scrambling QB. Carolina comes to mind. San Fran as well. Can't think of any AFC teams at the moment.

As far as a Broncos matchup against them... We tend to make team's pass games look better than they are. We have played well against the run, but Matthews made us look ridiculous last Thursday. I don't think we've contained the QB well either. Alex Smith looked like a good scrambling QB against our D.

[EastCoastBronco]

I think our chances are good.
The loss to Sandy Eggo brought out a lot of negative stuff about coaches and weak D and...whatever.
The whole freaking team was FLAT the other night. Plain and simple.
Anyone who has played on a team of any kind has had games like that. You just can't get up for the game. It happens.

If we play our "normal" game for the remaining sched, playoffs included, we will win it all.

[artie_dale]

I think our chances are good.
The loss to Sandy Eggo brought out a lot of negative stuff about coaches and weak D and...whatever.
The whole freaking team was FLAT the other night. Plain and simple.
Anyone who has played on a team of any kind has had games like that. You just can't get up for the game. It happens.

If we play our "normal" game for the remaining sched, playoffs included, we will win it all.

The way everything is playing out right now, whatever AFC team makes it to the SB, they will be the underdog to who ever makes it from the NFC (I expect, Seattle, SF, Carolina or NO). As it stands right now, I think Miami matches up best against those tough defense NFC teams.

[Joel]

I think the Seahawks' worst enemy isn't the team that has more weapons against them, but the team who's defense matches up against their offense the best. A team that defends the run well with the speed to contain a scrambling QB. Carolina comes to mind. San Fran as well. Can't think of any AFC teams at the moment.

As far as a Broncos matchup against them... We tend to make team's pass games look better than they are. We have played well against the run, but Matthews made us look ridiculous last Thursday. I don't think we've contained the QB well either. Alex Smith looked like a good scrambling QB against our D.
Until Thursday I felt very good about our D against Seattle for just the reasons you note; we handled Vick and McCoy, RGIII and Morris and TWICE handled Alex Smith and Charles. Maybe it was just a bad night, but I've worried our run D would sag after losing Big Vick AND Wolfe, and it seems more likely that's what's happened. I guess we'll see; we've got a good running team coming up (though not AS good with Foster on IR and Tate hobbled.) The playoffs might be more revealing; hopefully we go far enough NFC contenders become relevant.


I think our chances are good.
The loss to Sandy Eggo brought out a lot of negative stuff about coaches and weak D and...whatever.
The whole freaking team was FLAT the other night. Plain and simple.
Anyone who has played on a team of any kind has had games like that. You just can't get up for the game. It happens.

If we play our "normal" game for the remaining sched, playoffs included, we will win it all.
Unfortunately, that WAS our "normal" game, which is part of what's brought all the criticism of our coaches. A lot of those critics aren't newcomers to the role, because the problem isn't novel.

[DenBronx]

Had we not lost Clady, Franklin, Vickerson, Wolfe, Moore, Champ and Wes I would had said it would have been a lock. I know Moore will return for the playoffs, Champ is looking sort of healthy and Wes will also be back but not sure how fragile these guys will be for post season.


Right now it's anyones game to take. Seattle is going to be tough to beat for whoever wins the AFCCG.


I do however find it amazing that fans are all of the sudden scared of KC. The just played the terrible raiders. Lol! You know that same KC we spanked 2x??? That same KC team that would have to come to Denver if we win out?

I think we can beat anyone in the AFC once the playoffs start as long as we dont substain anymore key injuries. I would love Balt to come to Denver......I want revenge on those guys so bad and I know our team does too.

[Joel]

I can't speak for others, but for me it's as much about all other AFC contenders being weak as KC being strong. The Chiefs are the only one without season-ending injuries to Pro Bowl/HoF players (in most cases, several.) Also, Alex Smith has been on target and our secondary's been blowing their coverage. Fortunately for us, KCs WRs dropped a lot of balls both times we played, but hoping they'll do it a third time seems like asking too much. After all, Smith completed 85% of his passes against those awful Raiders; if he does the same against us, we could be in trouble.

I'd much rather play a dome team missing Reggie Wayne, or a defenseless Pats team whose best receiver is now Edelman followed by Amendola. Andy Dalton without help from one of his best CBs and DTs has more appeal than KC, too; SD ran well enough on us to make me worry our run Ds soft without Big Vick and Wolfe, but none of Cincys backs is as productive as Charles, so if we can't stop them he'd shred us (like he didn't the last two times.) The other options are KC or whatever mauled thing limps into the #6 seed; of the lot, KC looks toughest.