Titans vs. Broncos: Preview and Prediction

[BSN Denver]

The Broncos and Titans face off this Sunday in what looks like is going to be one of the coldest games in NFL history. The temperature is supposed to be in the single digits at kickoff with a chance of snow.

Single digit temperatures aren’t something that the Titans and their fans are accustomed to. In Tennessee it’s supposed to stay above freezing all weekend. But is the frigid temperatures the only thing Titans fans have to worry about?

Comparing these two teams is like night and day. They are not similar in anyway. One thrives on offense, the other defense. One team stops the run well, and the other stops the pass. One team scores a lot of points, the other stops teams from scoring.

The Titans have a top 10 ranked defense and a low ranked offense. The Broncos, on the other hand, have the number one ranked offense and a low ranked defense. Denver ranks number one in points scored, but 26th in points allowed. Tennessee is 21st in points scored and 11th in points allowed.

Both teams have their own formulas for success, one teams formula has seemed to work more than the other. The Titans who had an unexpected amount of success to start the season have since stalled out. Starting quarterback Jake Locker has failed to stay healthy, and is out for the rest of the season with a foot injury. The team has not been the same with back up Ryan Fitzpatrick.

With the weather being cold, the Titans might see a heavy dose of the run game which would not be in their favor. The top 10 ranked defense has thrived on stopping the pass, but has struggled against the run. They are 17th in the rushing yards allowed and 31st in rushing touchdowns allowed. On the flip side, the Broncos are ranked 13th in rushing yards, but third in rushing touchdowns....CONTINUE READING... (http://www.brandonspano.com/headlines.html?entry=titans-vs-broncos-preview-and)

[Joel]

That's just me, but totals are often misleading for teams with lots of wins (or losses.) Killing the clock and playing Prevent with second half leads tends to allow higher passing and lower rushing totals, while raising rushing yards gained. Conversely, extended Two Minute Drills trailing late tend to allow higher rushing and lower passing totals, while raising passing yards gained.

Normally that's the argument Denvers passing D is better than its totals (which is true: We're 29th in passing yards allowed per GAME, but only 19th in yards allowed per ATTEMPT; the per game stats are really high just because opponents pass a LOT, and that adds up even when they don't get much.) Same goes for our run D, where the small drop from 7th/game to 9th/att suggests it really IS that good (or with Vickerson and Wolfe alongside Knighton and Phillips/Ayers.)

Likewise our offense: Rushing 13th/game, but only 23rd/att (i.e. bottom ten:) We RUN a LOT to kill the clock and prevent the D selling out on passes, but produce little. We have many rushing TDs, but most are G to go because 1) it's another way to convince the D we won't ALWAYS pass, yet still scores near the goal line, and 2) our record-pace offense has appallingly few long runs.

21st in passing yds/game; 19th in yds/att: Their passing offense really is anemic, though maybe a hair better than their per game stats.
14th in rushing yds/game; 19th in yds/att: Now I feel a bit better about facing CJ2K without Wolfe and Vickerson.
17th in rushing yds allowed/game; 14th in yds/att: A lot of teams kill the clock against Tennessee, but the Titans aren't really good NOR bad against any given run.
7th in passing yds allowed/game; 14th in yds/att: It's not that Tennessee's much better against the pass than the run, but that teams rarely need many passes to beat the Titans.

Need more proof? Guess which team is #1 in most passing yds/att AND least passing yds allowed/att. Hint: It's the only team I genuinely think might beat our best game.

Point being: Just because I can bring home a whole flock if I go duck hunting with a Vulcan machine gun doesn't make me a good hunter. ;) The Titans are just above or below average in every single yds/att category, so I think we can handle them at home, but our 23rd/attempt rushing vs. their 14/att rushing D doesn't inspire confidence. I have more faith in our 3rd/att passing vs. their 14th/att pass D, conditions permitting. Our 19th pass D shoudl handle their 19th passing offense, and our 9th run D should handle their 14th rushing.

All THAT said, I WOULD like to establish our running a little more convincingly before the playoffs, but if opponents look at our yds/game and start gameplanning to stop our run rather than focusing exclusively on locking down our receivers and pressuring Manning at any cost, that's fine by me. :)