Peyton Manning: Same QB in cold

[Denver Native (Carol)]

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. -- Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning insisted Wednesday he's not a different player in wintry weather, despite a track record that seems to show otherwise.

Asked if he thinks he's a different player in cold weather, Manning simply said, "I don't."

Asked why he believed he wasn't a different quarterback in cold weather, he added only, "That's not how I feel, so ... did I miss the question?"

Manning is 3-7 in the regular season and postseason combined when the game-time temperature is 32 degrees or colder, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

rest - http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10082485/peyton-manning-denver-broncos-insists-same-player-cold

[capt. Jack]

Peyton can play anywhere in any weather and kick butt! We got a damn good team and a GREAT QB, not seen around Denver since Ole' #7 was kickin' around on the field! These are the best of times in Denver Broncos history!

[NightTrainLayne]

Coach Fox states in the article that the sample size to too small.

He's certainly right about that.

But the sample is heavily skewed as well, as posted in the thread from Brandon Spano last week.

Of those 10 games, only one loss was a Home game.

Since Manning played in a dome in Indianapolis, his only career starts in cold weather prior to coming to Denver were necessarily "Away" games. A goodly portion of those losses were playoff losses on the road to better than average teams. Better than average, by definition, because they made the playoffs.

If you whittle down any QB's stats to "on-the-road against playoff teams" I imagine you will see quite a drop-off when compared to their average against all competition.

[WTE]

Hmmmmmmm. Peyton sure seems to be getting a little testy when the cold weather subject comes up.

[Dapper Dan]

It seemed like a pretty dumb question, the way they asked. "Why do you not feel different?" How do they want him to answer it?

[Northman]

Coach Fox states in the article that the sample size to too small.

He's certainly right about that.

But the sample is heavily skewed as well, as posted in the thread from Brandon Spano last week.

Of those 10 games, only one loss was a Home game.

Since Manning played in a dome in Indianapolis, his only career starts in cold weather prior to coming to Denver were necessarily "Away" games. A goodly portion of those losses were playoff losses on the road to better than average teams. Better than average, by definition, because they made the playoffs.

If you whittle down any QB's stats to "on-the-road against playoff teams" I imagine you will see quite a drop-off when compared to their average against all competition.

Well, but it would be skewed both ways if that is the case because the Colts play in a dome. Nevermind of course that homefield advantage means very little these days in the NFL and thats actually been going on for a long time. Flacco for instance is 7-4 in away games during the playoffs so i just cant get on board with it simply coming down to playing on the road.

[BroncoWave]

It seemed like a pretty dumb question, the way they asked. "Why do you not feel different?" How do they want him to answer it?

Yeah, what's he supposed to say? "Yeah guys, I get pretty awful when the weather gets bad. Maybe they should trot out Brock when the temp gets below 32."

[Dzone]

One of the most impressive things about Peyton Manning the Bronco is that he has better stats now than when he was playing indoors most of the time. That's amazing. He is better outside. If he goes out Sunday and destroys the Titans and throws for 5 touchdowns, this whole topic might just die. God forbid If he sucks Sunday, this will be all they will talk about all the way to the super bowl and beyond. Peyton has a chance to shut up a lot of people on sunday. Its going to be a cold son of a bitch on sunday-The high is going to be 16 and the low is 1. So it wont be below zero. Manning will be fine.

[BroncoWave]

One of the most impressive things about Peyton Manning the Bronco is that he has better stats now than when he was playing indoors most of the time. That's amazing. He is better outside. If he goes out Sunday and destroys the Titans and throws for 5 touchdowns, this whole topic might just die. God forbid If he sucks Sunday, this will be all they will talk about all the way to the super bowl and beyond. Peyton has a chance to shut up a lot of people on sunday. Its going to be a cold son of a bitch on sunday-The high is going to be 16 and the low is 1. So it wont be below zero. Manning will be fine.

But then people will say "It's just the Titans".

[Dapper Dan]

One of the most impressive things about Peyton Manning the Bronco is that he has better stats now than when he was playing indoors most of the time. That's amazing. He is better outside. If he goes out Sunday and destroys the Titans and throws for 5 touchdowns, this whole topic might just die. God forbid If he sucks Sunday, this will be all they will talk about all the way to the super bowl and beyond. Peyton has a chance to shut up a lot of people on sunday. Its going to be a cold son of a bitch on sunday-The high is going to be 16 and the low is 1. So it wont be below zero. Manning will be fine.

I was thinking about this today. What if he wins the Super Bowl this year? I bet people will still question him.

[Dzone]

But then people will say "It's just the Titans".
They will say "Manning cant play in the cold" ad infinitum, ad nauseum ...This issue has gotten as big as "Tebow Cant Throw" in the media.

[Northman]

One of the most impressive things about Peyton Manning the Bronco is that he has better stats now than when he was playing indoors most of the time. That's amazing. He is better outside. If he goes out Sunday and destroys the Titans and throws for 5 touchdowns, this whole topic might just die. God forbid If he sucks Sunday, this will be all they will talk about all the way to the super bowl and beyond. Peyton has a chance to shut up a lot of people on sunday. Its going to be a cold son of a bitch on sunday-The high is going to be 16 and the low is 1. So it wont be below zero. Manning will be fine.

Agreed. A Sunday win could go a long way.

[Northman]

I was thinking about this today. What if he wins the Super Bowl this year? I bet people will still question him.

How? It just wouldnt be possible. The SB is outdoors and most likely be cold as a bitch. If he goes the distance he would of shut a lot of people up.

[NightTrainLayne]

Well, but it would be skewed both ways if that is the case because the Colts play in a dome. Nevermind of course that homefield advantage means very little these days in the NFL and thats actually been going on for a long time. Flacco for instance is 7-4 in away games during the playoffs so i just cant get on board with it simply coming down to playing on the road.

Right, it probably is skewed both ways. .. Stats somewhat inflated due to so many home games in perfect, dome conditions, and the majority of away cold games being against high-level playoff teams.

Again, you're using a small sample size for Flacco as well. And what are his stats in those games? Are we just talking wins?

Mannings stats in this small sample are worse than his average, but better than his team's win/loss records would suggest. Is it possible that Flacco's stats are similarly worse, but his team has managed to win more games in similar situations? I don't know, but I'd be very curious to see.

[Dapper Dan]

How? It just wouldnt be possible. The SB is outdoors and most likely be cold as a bitch. If he goes the distance he would of shut a lot of people up.

"A lot of people"

I agree with that. I still don't think it will go away. He may have an interception in each cold, playoff game. He may not put up 5 Tds and 400 yards in each game. People will find something. They always do. He may have a mediocre game and people will say the Broncos won because of the running game and defense. People still bring that up with Elway.

[blamkin86]

Hmmmmmmm. Peyton sure seems to be getting a little testy when the cold weather subject comes up.

Two words: Shrinkage.

[BroncoWave]

Hmmmmmmm. Peyton sure seems to be getting a little testy when the cold weather subject comes up.


Two words: Shrinkage.

I get it!

[Mike]

Agreed. A Sunday win could go a long way.

It doesn't even half to result in a win for me. All I want to see is him come out and throw the ball down field, accurately, and often. I won't count drops against him.

[WTE]

When Peyton is going against the wind this Sunday all the fans in the end zone behind him should just blow as hard as they can to get the wind going in the other direction and help him out a little bit.

[Northman]

Right, it probably is skewed both ways. .. Stats somewhat inflated due to so many home games in perfect, dome conditions, and the majority of away cold games being against high-level playoff teams.

Again, you're using a small sample size for Flacco as well. And what are his stats in those games? Are we just talking wins?

Mannings stats in this small sample are worse than his average, but better than his team's win/loss records would suggest. Is it possible that Flacco's stats are similarly worse, but his team has managed to win more games in similar situations? I don't know, but I'd be very curious to see.

I would wager that most of Flacco's games in those cases were probably average, some to do with him being younger (he actually made the playoffs his first year) and some to do with him simply being less of a playmaker than a guy like Manning. But, you do have to look at from the view of wins. Thats just how QB's are judged whether anyone wants to agree with it or not. But the other thing is even if Peyton's numbers are good how is he in crunch time in those games? I think part of the view on him is he may have the stats (last year he had a very good game statistically but threw a costly INT in double OT to basically end the game) but doesnt necessarily step it up when the game is on the line.

We could probably comb through some of Elway's playoff games and find some duds but one reason that John is always revered is because of his playoff magic. To my recollection i dont think Manning has had that kind of moments in the postseason. He's had some magical comebacks in the regular season but nothing that i can remember come playoff time.

[VonDoom]

We could probably comb through some of Elway's playoff games and find some duds but one reason that John is always revered is because of his playoff magic. To my recollection i dont think Manning has had that kind of moments in the postseason. He's had some magical comebacks in the regular season but nothing that i can remember come playoff time.

How about the 2006 AFCG? Statistically, it wasn't stunning for Manning, though he did end up with around 350 yards and came back from 21-3 against the hated Patriots.

[Northman]

How about the 2006 AFCG? Statistically, it wasn't stunning for Manning, though he did end up with around 350 yards and came back from 21-3 against the hated Patriots.

You found one? I hardly remember that game. But, if i do recall that year that was at Indy right?

[LawDog]

Mannings stats in this small sample are worse than his average, but better than his team's win/loss records would suggest. Is it possible that Flacco's stats are similarly worse, but his team has managed to win more games in similar situations? I don't know, but I'd be very curious to see.

Flacco is horrible in cold weather playoff games. In warm conditions (40 degrees and above) his win percentage is 75%. When the mercury slips below 40 degrees, Flacco's win percentage plummets to 50%. Additionally, a whopping 75 percent of Flacco's playoff losses have come in cold weather games. Man, that guy is so pitiful in cold weather playoff games, he should be criminally prosecuted for outright stealing $120 million from the Ravens organization.

This is kind of fun... and to be fair, I was using his numbers prior to the Denver game last January ( http://www.abc2news.com/dpp/weather/weather_blogs/joe-flacco-better-in-cold-weather ) but when comparing stats, everyone seems to accept a certain amount of, er, flexibility when interpreting them.

Here is a link to Flacco's career stats (including a ton of variables), and while his completion percentage is not great overall (a slice over 60%) it does fall off significantly in cold weather games (down to 56ish). ( http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/8795/splits/?season=career )

And for Peyton ( http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/4256/splits/?season=career ) whose completion percentage only drops from 65 to 63 in cold games and interestingly jumped to almost 78% in the one game he has played in temps below 21 degrees...

[VonDoom]

You found one? I hardly remember that game. But, if i do recall that year that was at Indy right?

Heh. I wasn't looking that hard. I just remember that game because it was exciting, and the Patriots got taken down. It was at Indy (so it doesn't answer the cold weather question, but you were looking for playoff moments, I believe). Manning takes a lot of crap for his postseason play and this is a guy who's WON a Super Bowl and been to another. I can't imagine how much worse it would be if they had lost that game, at home.

[SR]

They will say "Manning cant play in the cold" ad infinitum, ad nauseum ...This issue has gotten as big as "Tebow Cant Throw" in the media.

But Tebow not being able to hit the broad side of a barn is plainly evident. ;)

[Dapper Dan]

But Tebow not being able to hit the broad side of a barn is plainly evident. ;)

False.

He never attempted a throw at a broad side of a barn.

[weazel]

it wasn't cold in Indianapolis, they just opened the side window and the minor wind was too much for him. I don't get the excuses, its plain to see that he doesnt play well when the weather gets shitty.

[Dzone]

it wasn't cold in indianapolis, they just opened the side window and the minor wind was too much for him. I don't get the excuses, its plain to see that he doesnt play well when the weather gets shitty.
lol...

[Dapper Dan]

From earlier this season:


http://www.milehighreport.com/2013/11/14/5102238/peyton-manning-plays-lousy-in-cold-weather-myth-or-fact



Peyton Manning plays lousy in cold weather! Myth or Fact?

Peyton Manning has an overall record of 10-11. Really 10-10 if you want to throw out the game against Buffalo where he played a quarter and was pulled. That season the Colts were already 14-1 and had clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Games Played 30 F - 40 F

13 games, Manning is 8-6 (.571)
296-465 (63.7%), 3714 yards ( 8.0), 24/20, 87.7 QB Rating
Games Played < 30 F

8 games (7 full games), Manning is 2-5 (.400)
175-285 (61.4%), 1761 yards (6.2), 8/8, 76.7 QB Rating
So he's terrible in cold weather right?

Not exactly. In Peyton Manning's last 8 games under these weather conditions, he had a streak of 7 straight games where he completed at least 70% of his passes. In fact, here are his numbers through those 8 games:

177-243 (72.8%), 2129 yards (8.8), 17/10, 105.5 QB Rating

This is not the production of a weak-armed choker who folds in cold weather. His record during that stretch? 4-4. It's a team game folks. During that stretch, his offenses averaged 26.5 points per game. That would be good enough to win under most circumstances. That average when compared to scoring this year would rank that team 6th in the league.

Other factors?

Did you notice most of those games (in fact all but 2) were road games? Most teams fare much worse on the road than at home. If you look at the standings from 2012, 24/32 teams or 75% of all teams finished with a road record at .500 or worse. Going back 5 years, 70.6% of all teams finished .500 or worse on the road.

Conclusions

This is just an isolated study on one QB. It is hard to know for sure where these numbers stand when you do not have other data to compare it to. If you wanted to draw any solid conclusions from these numbers you would have to do a giant case study that included all NFL Quarterbacks going back decades. However, with the facts I have presented here, you could state the following accurately:

Over the course of his career, Peyton Manning has performed under his career averages when playing in cold weather at 40 degrees F or colder. His career QB Rating stands at 96.8. With this sample size of 20 games (which represent about 8% of all games he's played) Peyton's QB Rating when the temperature is at or below 40 degrees F is 83.5 or 13.3 points lower.
Peyton Manning has fared a bit better when the temperature is 30 F - 40 F. His QB Rating is 87.7 which is 9.1 points lower than his career average.
He has done far worse when the temperature is below 30 F. His QB Rating of 76.7 puts him 20.1 points lower than his career average.
90% of these games have been played on the road and his record in these away games is similar to the NFL average of 70.6% teams that finished at .500 or worse on the road over the course of the last five years.
In his last 8 games under these frigid conditions, Peyton Manning has performed ABOVE his career averages, registering a 105.5 QB Rating (11.3 points above his career average).
The Verdict?

Inconclusive

My Thoughts?

I'll let Scott Kacsmar sum it up:

Scott Kacsmar @FO_ScottKacsmar
The whole "Manning bad in cold weather" thing was created after 3 playoff losses in NY/NE in 2002-04. It's nothing legit.

[Northman]

it wasn't cold in Indianapolis, they just opened the side window and the minor wind was too much for him. I don't get the excuses, its plain to see that he doesnt play well when the weather gets shitty.

People just have a hard time with it because its Peyton Mother ******* Manning. Now of course the arguments turn to EVERY QB plays poorly in cold weather but i guess our boy plays worse than the others at this point. Will be interesting to see how it plays out the rest of the year, it really is SB or bust at this point so we will see if he can overcome the adversity. If not, well we tried. lmao

[AllThings18]

Two of those games are also throw-away losses which in game a) Denver 2004 week 17 he played 1 series going 1/2 for 6 yards in a 14-33 loss. and in game b) Buffalo 2009 week 17, in which the Colts staff hypocritically thought it was important enough for Manning to stay in for a little more than a quarter to feed passes to Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark so they each could finish with 100 catches a week after pissing in the eye of perfection. He finished 14/18 for 95 yards and an int in the snow and 12 degree weather.

So those 2 losses add to the one-sidedness of the w/l record.

The 10 "Freezing" games:
https://24.media.tumblr.com/18d1aaea533f5853fd034e79c409c652/tumblr_mxcwj69b901s5gh7fo1_r1_1280.jpg

He's had some bad games in the cold, but he's played bad indoors at times too, but he's also played well in freezing games.


His worst one, the 2003 AFCCG would have been a much better contest on the stat sheet if it wasn't for Walt "Foxboro" Coleman's crew and their failure to accurately call the mugging of the Colts receivers. Some will call it an excuse, but it is more reason than excuse.

If anything a couple of weeks ago, I think he was a bit too cautious, and playing with a lead he didn't want to take any increased risks. Part of me wonders what that game would have looked like if it would have been the Patriots jumping out to the big lead with Manning forced to throw it 50+ times. It might have been a blow out. It might have been a similar finish. It might have been a different result.

One of the things he has repeated time and time again after his return is that he's still getting to know his body/arm, and the more he plays/practices in cold/freezing conditions the more he will learn from it and the more he will be able to adjust to what he can and cannot do and his confidence will likely increase. That is one reason Ii'm glad the team was outdoors today and hope for the same tomorrow.

At the end of those 8 full games, his teams averaged 25 ppg. roughly a field goal off his career pace. The defenses gave up a TD more. Not passing the buck, just sharing the information.

[Hawgdriver]

Hmmmmmmm. Peyton sure seems to be getting a little testy when the cold weather subject comes up.

Testy is good.

[Hawgdriver]

I'm gonna lay it all down here.

There's a lot of biases when you look at this issue. It's hard to get a good read on the whole thing.

Until someone explains the thing using statistical principles or some kind of reasonable physiological theory, it's all a bunch of bs to me. All QBs suffer when it's colder, especially the most accurate ones. A lot of these teams rely on QB accuracy, so that might be affected some by cold conditions and inclement weather. I'd be surprised if it wasn't uniform among all QBs. Peyton is as mentally tough as the next guy.

Now, it could be that his nerve issue is a culprit. Well, then someone get out the powerpoint and make the case. Until then, it's wive's-tale material.

[AllThings18]

I'm gonna lay it all down here.

There's a lot of biases when you look at this issue. It's hard to get a good read on the whole thing.

Until someone explains the thing using statistical principles or some kind of reasonable physiological theory, it's all a bunch of bs to me. All QBs suffer when it's colder, especially the most accurate ones. A lot of these teams rely on QB accuracy, so that might be affected some by cold conditions and inclement weather. I'd be surprised if it wasn't uniform among all QBs. Peyton is as mentally tough as the next guy.

Now, it could be that his nerve issue is a culprit. Well, then someone get out the powerpoint and make the case. Until then, it's wive's-tale material.


To me it comes down to the opponent more than the conditions.

New England played Arizona a few years ago in bad conditions.

Matt Cassell vs. Kurt Warner, one for the ages.

Warner historically is the far better QB. On that particular day Warner stunk the joint up and Cassel looked like he was wearing a Tom Brady costume.

Cassell was 20/36 345 3 td
Warneer was 6/18 30 yards before giving way to Leinart who went 6/14 138 1td 1int

47-7 blowout 30 degree weather, snow, and 10 mph wind with a windchill of 21.

Each game can have it's own set of oddities.

A lot of Patriots fans used to like to throw out that Brady was better than Manning indoors. Well, Brady was typically playing weaker teams/defenses when he was playing indoors while Manning was playing all comers. When I took the time to compare apples to apples. Brady on the road in a dome, and Manning on the road in a dome, Manning's #'s were better than Brady's.

Just as for the most part Manning's "freezing games" have come at the hands of the better teams. 6 of those 10 games came against playoff teams and 3 of those were against the eventual Super Bowl Champion.

It's easy to bash a player for a quick look at a set of #'s, or a specific result, but unless one is willing to dig deeper, it can be a bit meaningless, but yet the masses will believe it as 100% truth because the media is spewing it.

[Ravage!!!]

Well, but it would be skewed both ways if that is the case because the Colts play in a dome. Nevermind of course that homefield advantage means very little these days in the NFL and thats actually been going on for a long time. Flacco for instance is 7-4 in away games during the playoffs so i just cant get on board with it simply coming down to playing on the road.

But have you seen HIS stats in those wins??? I mean, other than this last year, they were HORRRRRRRR IBLE. So once again, its a "you are terrible until you have a good game" argument. FLacco was HORRENDOUS.... then all of a sudden he isn't.

[Ravage!!!]

Just as for the most part Manning's "freezing games" have come at the hands of the better teams. 6 of those 10 games came against playoff teams and 3 of those were against the eventual Super Bowl Champion.

It's easy to bash a player for a quick look at a set of #'s, or a specific result, but unless one is willing to dig deeper, it can be a bit meaningless, but yet the masses will believe it as 100% truth because the media is spewing it.

All good points.

[WTE]

To me it comes down to the opponent more than the conditions.

New England played Arizona a few years ago in bad conditions.

Matt Cassell vs. Kurt Warner, one for the ages.

Warner historically is the far better QB. On that particular day Warner stunk the joint up and Cassel looked like he was wearing a Tom Brady costume.

Cassell was 20/36 345 3 td
Warneer was 6/18 30 yards before giving way to Leinart who went 6/14 138 1td 1int

47-7 blowout 30 degree weather, snow, and 10 mph wind with a windchill of 21.


It was this exact game that convinced me to quit fantasy football for good. The Patriots defense was giving it their all to get the shutout and I was cheering like crazy when Larry Fitzgerald scored on a bomb in garbage time to finally get me some points. After I saw how pissed the Patriots were for blowing the shutout I decided to quit fantasy for good.

OK, you can continue talking about how poorly Peyton throws in cold weather now.

[Denver Native (Carol)]

Offensive coordinator Adam Gase talks to the press after Thursday's practice.

video - http://www.denverbroncos.com/multimedia/videos/Gase-on-Manning-Playing-in-the-Cold/82d9a53f-a75a-43c1-bf46-c901157ad4d8

[Joel]

I'm honestly starting to think it's been more familiarity, hostile crowds and (in the playoffs) tough opponents than any disproportionate problem with cold itself. Adverse weather conditions aren't good for anyones game; throw in a playoff opponent and a crowd roaring over those multi-audibles Manning loves, then cheering for a DE to crush him, and his stats will naturally suffer.

However, once Manning was drafted the only time he played in the cold was maybe 2-3 November/December games plus one on the road in the playoffs. That's why he never stuck with a glove at any time before now: He just didn't need it often enough to justify messing with his practice routine and feel of the ball. Unfortunately, limited familiarity with freezing conditions makes it harder to know how to adjust for what cold makes harder (e.g. the ball itself.) After a year and a half in Denver, there's every reason to think that's changed.

[capt. Jack]

When Peyton is going against the wind this Sunday all the fans in the end zone behind him should just blow as hard as they can to get the wind going in the other direction and help him out a little bit.


Go blow Tom Brady!! :) no matter what happens ever, Peyton is a top 5 QB of all-time and doesn't have to answer to anyone, he is just being nice, not telling people to go eff themselves!

[Northman]

Winning is winning. Either you get it done or you dont. More times than not Manning doesnt get it done, people can make excuses all day long but it wont change until Manning proves he can do it on a regular basis. He will have the perfect opportunity this year to put it to rest. If not, well.....

[Broncolingus]

He will have the perfect opportunity this year to put it to rest. If not, well.....

A-friggin-men, brother...

...it's really that simple.