PDA

View Full Version : The AFC's best teams: The Contenders Breakdown



Northman
11-14-2013, 12:41 PM
http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/100413/nfl-nation-says-afcs-best-team


The Chiefs play some good defense, which actually isn't a small thing. They allow some yards and give up some big plays, so their statistics aren't always pretty. But the Chiefs pressure the opposing quarterback (league-high 36 sacks), create turnovers (league-high 23 takeaways ) and are great playing inside their own 20 (they allow opponents a touchdown a league-best 23 percent of the time).



And among the AFC front-running teams, the quarterback who is playing the best and has done the most -- sore right ankle or not -- is Peyton Manning (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/1428/peyton-manning). So, until such time as that is not the case, the Broncos remain the best bet in the conference to make the Super Bowl.


On top of that, one of the main things the Patriots have going for them is they are 7-2 without having played a game in which their top three skill-position players not named Brady (tight end Rob Gronkowski (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13229/rob-gronkowski), running back Shane Vereen (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14017/shane-vereen) and receiver Danny Amendola (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/11674/danny-amendola)) have been on the field together.


Indianapolis' Super Bowl aspirations appeared to take a substantial hit when receiver Reggie Wayne (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/2578/reggie-wayne) went to the ground with a torn ACL in the final minutes of the Oct. 20 victory over the Broncos. Losing Wayne leaves quarterback Andrew Luck (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14874/andrew-luck) with T.Y. Hilton (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14924/ty-hilton) and a group of inexperienced and unreliable receivers to go with an offensive line that's had a difficult time blocking. You would think those issues would make it virtually impossible for the Colts to have any chance of advancing out of the AFC.



Cincinnati's defensive coordinator has been nothing short of brilliant this season. The adjustments he's had to make because of the bevy of major injuries have kept the Bengals afloat this season and allowed the defense to maintain its spot among the league's elite. Entering Sunday's Week 11 showdown with the Browns, the Bengals' total defense ranks fifth in the league. Among the current division leaders, the Kansas City Chiefs (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/kc/kansas-city-chiefs) are the only other team with a top-10 defense (at No. 10).

Poet
11-14-2013, 01:19 PM
The Bengals are sunk. The last two weeks have shown it.

slim
11-14-2013, 01:33 PM
The Bengals are sunk. The last two weeks have shown it.

Nonsense.

underrated29
11-14-2013, 01:42 PM
The bengals are one of the teams I DO NOT want the broncos to face in the playoffs. I like the tigers too.

slim
11-14-2013, 01:43 PM
King, stop feeling sorry for yourself and have a little perspective.

Poet
11-14-2013, 01:47 PM
King, stop feeling sorry for yourself and have a little perspective.

The loss of Atkins really hurts what we do on defense. The secondary was always a little soft to big plays. We masked it by putting Hall on the team's best possession WR, that way on the longer routes the team's star WR's ability to run the deeper routes was limited. With Atkins out, that game plan seems to have gone to the wayside. Since that is the case, we're having to run more single coverage with Jones - who is a playmaker of sorts but not a great coverage guy - Newman - playing well but he's slow and not his ballskills have diminished, and Kirkpatrick, a draft pick that I Loathed - is not playing well at all.

That, coupled with an offense that is erratic, leads me to conclude that we're not a real 'contender'.

Joel
11-14-2013, 02:30 PM
We should know who gets the byes and who's the #5 seed within three weeks. It's weird to think two teams in the same division should clinch a playoff spot by the first week of December—yet either could be out of the division race anyway. The bottom 10 AFC teams are all 4+ games behind us; winning 2 of our next 3 (let alone all) would leave them just 4 games to make up 3+. We'd be guaranteed at least the #6 seed, unless TWO of them win their last 7 AND we never won another game. All the same applies to KC, except they have one more win, so they just need one more win (instead of the two we need.)

Only the #2 seeds really tricky, because new AFCN/S (and W...?) leaders mean the likely champs won't all meet: NE won't meet Indy or KC and Cincy won't meet Denver/KC (Indy and Cincy will, because both were 2nd in their divisions last year.) 3 of the 5 potential tiebreaks haven't even been played, and it's far too soon to know which (if any) will be needed. Who has the edge depends on how one looks at it:

Cincy (6-4) is arguably the dark horse since they have the worst record, but they also have one less game to lose than everyone else, and already beat NE, so if they finish even Cincy's the higher seed.

Indy (6-3) has the next best record and already beat us, but that's their only tiebreak right now; they haven't played KC nor Cincy yet, and won't play NE.

NE (7-2) is in good shape, but a home loss to us would deny them BOTH the only tiebreaks they can win outright; they'd have to hope to finish better than us and Cincy AND that we win the AFCW.

The AFCW champ easily has the best shot at the #1 seed, let alone #2 (the reason the #2 is so uncertain: If/when the AFCW Champ clinches homefield EVERYONE will be fighting over the other bye.) Whoever wins the AFCW will have 12+ wins, whether because KC cruises or we split with them, lose to NE and beat SD and Chokeland while they lose to Indy and x (which is the worst realistic scenario for us that still gives us even a remote shot at the AFCW; as previously noted, I consider even that very unlikely: We MUST win 2 of our next 3 to get ANY home playoff games.)

Those are just the simple head-to-head tiebreaks the NFL tried to increase by making each team play all conference teams coming off the same division finish. After that we get into common opponents and then conference oppents, after which it starts getting esoteric and arcane (hence head-to-heads are eminently preferable whenever possible; everyone understands x beat y.)

Much as it pains me, KC looks like the top seed; they need only split with us, not lose division games they should win easily and beat a Colts team that won't have Reggie Wayne or the FOUR turnovers that let them squeak out a win against usfor the #1 (Indy looked impotent last week against a poor Rams team.) They could even drop one of THOSE games unless we win @NE. Perhaps best of all, the only team that can beat them head-to-head is Indy (and us, of course;) everyone else would need a better common/conference record than an unbeaten team. Much depends on our two meetings with them and one with NE though.

I like NE for #2, though THAT depends on their trip to Carolina next and visit from us the following week. Those are the only big games left them (division games tend to be closer, but NE only has two more, one against Buffalo; unless Miami/Houston resurrects themselves at home, us and Carolina should be their only POTENTIAL losses.) Indy looks weaker and still visits KC and Cincy (plus four division games.) Cincy might be better off since they only host Indy and visit SD and have played half their division games (but only won one,) except they're already half a game behind Indy and 1.5 behind NE (but have the tiebreak.)

Joel
11-14-2013, 02:33 PM
I do find it ironic our one LOSS could ruin Indys season by costing them Reggie Wayne. On the other hand, if one HoF WR is the difference between beating us and Seattle or a 30 pt loss to the Lambs, they were a paper tiger to begin. I just hope history doesn't repeat itself next week with a Denver win at the cost of someone indispensable to OUR SB run. Block, block, BLOCK so we can run the ball and Manning can enjoy the game as much as all other spectators, without reflexively flinching at the snap the few times he's forced to pass.

Joel
11-14-2013, 02:38 PM
Oh, one more thing (from the article:)
Keep in mind, however, that the Chiefs have feasted this season on a schedule filled with average (or worse) teams. The Broncos' schedule hasn't been much different....

In fact, as John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information points out, the Chiefs and Broncos are a combined 17-0 against teams that are currently .500 or worse. On the only occasion when either team has faced an opponent with a winning record, the Broncos fell 39-33 to the Colts.
So I DIDN'T imagine it! Or, y'know, ESPN hates the Broncos. Possibly both (the claim, after all, has prompted both allegations.)

slim
11-14-2013, 02:40 PM
The loss of Atkins really hurts what we do on defense. The secondary was always a little soft to big plays. We masked it by putting Hall on the team's best possession WR, that way on the longer routes the team's star WR's ability to run the deeper routes was limited. With Atkins out, that game plan seems to have gone to the wayside. Since that is the case, we're having to run more single coverage with Jones - who is a playmaker of sorts but not a great coverage guy - Newman - playing well but he's slow and not his ballskills have diminished, and Kirkpatrick, a draft pick that I Loathed - is not playing well at all.

That, coupled with an offense that is erratic, leads me to conclude that we're not a real 'contender'.

You guys are fine. Let's see what they look like in Dec.

Joel
11-14-2013, 03:01 PM
The Bengals are sunk. The last two weeks have shown it.
Every AFC contender that hasn't lost a potential HoFer to season ending injury raise your hand. I wish KC no harm, but it's kind of their turn; being the only undefeated OR HEALTHY team is an unfair advantage. The Pats even lost their starting LT with a broken leg into the bargain; short of Brady, I can't think of anyone more important to their season than Wilfork and Vollmer.

To be brutally frank though (even though I picked the Bengals to win the 2013 AFCN about the time the Ravens were popping last years champagne corks) if everyone who CAN get healthy be January DOES it was always hard to see the Bengals getting past us and NE, and not easy against Indy even without Wayne. Their pass rush might take advantage of Clark, but not enough (IMHO) so. When healthy, New Englands D looked more like it used to than the hollow shell of recent years, and if the WRs aren't what they were, I still don't think Cincy could do as well against them on the road as at home.

Then KC came along; I can't see Dalton and Green lighting up a ball hawking D that's averaging <13 pts/game, let alone in Arrowhead (up there with Lambeau, Mile High and Seattle among tough places to visit.)

Not trying to be a jerk, just calling it like I see it. Before nocking the flaming arrows, remember I said eight months ago on this very forum Cincy would win their division this year. ;)

powderaddict
11-14-2013, 04:48 PM
Being healthy is an "unfair advantage"? :confused:

Captain Speardog
11-14-2013, 09:44 PM
The Bengals are sunk. The last two weeks have shown it.

I agree just like the Ravens last year. They do not have a chance.

BroncoWave
11-14-2013, 09:46 PM
King, I apologize for all of these guys trying to patronize you and make you feel better. You are correct, the Bangals are finished and are not a contender anymore.

Poet
11-14-2013, 09:47 PM
King, I apologize for all of these guys trying to patronize you and make you feel better. You are correct, the Bangals are finished and are not a contender anymore.

I don't know who the Bangals are, but they sound a lot like my Bengals.

BroncoWave
11-14-2013, 09:49 PM
I don't know who the Bangals are, but they sound a lot like my Bengals.

Oh yeah, sorry. The Bengals are finished too.

Captain Speardog
11-14-2013, 09:49 PM
I don't know who the Bangals are, but they sound a lot like my Bengals.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-K3liZvYh49E/TiXIs6Ht6fI/AAAAAAAAB9E/CddskAbOdHE/s1600/bangles.jpg

Poet
11-14-2013, 09:52 PM
They all look like guys. Except the dark haired girl.

Captain Speardog
11-14-2013, 10:13 PM
They all look like guys. Except the dark haired girl.

You must be pretty young. They were huge back in the day and very attractive.

Do a youtube search on them. Music is soft but they are pretty hot, especially the dark haired one.

Poet
11-14-2013, 10:18 PM
You must be pretty young. They were huge back in the day and very attractive.

Do a youtube search on them. Music is soft but they are pretty hot, especially the dark haired one.

I turn 26 on Monday. They look like dudes.

Captain Speardog
11-14-2013, 10:58 PM
I turn 26 on Monday. They look like dudes.

Yeah they are a little before your day. They were big about 1986-89.

Poet
11-14-2013, 11:00 PM
That lady in your avatar, I want to do bad things to her.

Joel
11-15-2013, 08:05 AM
Being healthy is an "unfair advantage"? :confused:
It was said slightly tongue in cheek, but when every contender loses a potential HoFer for the season before it's even half done, the only one who DOESN'T has a real edge, yes.

Captain Speardog
11-16-2013, 04:47 AM
That lady in your avatar, I want to do bad things to her.

Same as in my sig, she is the only girl for me.

FanInAZ
11-16-2013, 04:56 AM
King, the problem with your Bengals is that they "Walk Like An Egyptian"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EeBChzlZYbE

Captain Speardog
11-16-2013, 04:58 AM
King, the problem with your Bengals is that they "Walk Like An Egyptian"

:D Kids, just Google what I have in quote & you'll get it :D

That, and they hit like girls.

slim
11-19-2013, 02:35 PM
King?

Simple Jaded
11-19-2013, 02:53 PM
Suzanna Hoffs was utterly ****able.

Poet
11-19-2013, 03:00 PM
King?

Look at how Dalton is playing. GG season. It will be nice to maybe make the playoffs, but then it's curtains.

slim
11-19-2013, 03:03 PM
Look at how Dalton is playing. GG season. It will be nice to maybe make the playoffs, but then it's curtains.

Ebb/flow. It is a long season.

You are smarter than this.

Poet
11-19-2013, 03:08 PM
Ebb/flow. It is a long season.

You are smarter than this.

Surely you must agree that Dalton has been inconsistent throughout his career, and that such inconsistency is consistent, at least at this point.

slim
11-19-2013, 03:16 PM
Surely you must agree that Dalton has been inconsistent throughout his career, and that such inconsistency is consistent, at least at this point.

Yes, that is true. Has Flacco been inconsistent throughout his career?

Poet
11-19-2013, 03:17 PM
Yes, that is true. Has Flacco been inconsistent throughout his career?

He's been consistently average and over-celebrated. I see what you're trying to do, and I appreciate it. But, if we're relying on Dalton to go on a historic post season tear, that seems unlikely.

slim
11-19-2013, 03:20 PM
He's been consistently average and over-celebrated. I see what you're trying to do, and I appreciate it. But, if we're relying on Dalton to go on a historic post season tear, that seems unlikely.

Yeah, that is a much harder argument for me. You started out by telling me about the defense, but I think the defense will be fine. But it's tough to win without an elite QB. Not impossible, but tough.

CoachChaz
11-19-2013, 03:26 PM
Suzanna Hoffs was utterly ****able.

Im pretty sure I'd still nail her

Poet
11-19-2013, 03:32 PM
Yeah, that is a much harder argument for me. You started out by telling me about the defense, but I think the defense will be fine. But it's tough to win without an elite QB. Not impossible, but tough.

That is true, Slim. I'm sorry for not properly maintaining the dialogue. Onto the defense - The secondary is still suspect and prone to giving up the big play. Josh Gorden torching Kirkpatrick was not shocking to me. The defensive ends aren't doing enough without Atkins. Dunlap is still a very good player, above average pass rusher, great against the run, bats down balls, durable. Michael Johnson is costing himself a lot of money this season as he's been hurt and his sack numbers aren't where they were expected to be. Still, mighty fine player. The linebackers are holding up. Burfict is playing at a pro bowl level, but he gets a lot of personal foul penalties. Maualuga is missed, he's actually been a good player so far. Vincent Rey, though, that guy is playing out of his mind. I think Zim made enough adjustments on the defense to allow for us to blitz Rey, who is playing MLB for us at the moment.

But, it's just not the same defense as it was. It's hard to quantify, and honestly I might not be able to quantify it. We drop a lot INTS. Like a lot. We've been missing more open field tackles than normal, to. Before the Hall and Atkins injuries, I felt that we had the best defense in the game. Unlike the Chiefs, we got our numbers against actual offenses. Unlike the Hawks, our defense showed up on the road, too, and at home we're undefeated. Our defense did Aaron Rodgers worse than the Niners defense did. We were making more plays. There was something dynamic. Something special. I'm not saying we were the 85 Bears, but that defensive unit was a machine. We made you pay for anything that you did. The guys are playing their asses off, it's just....it is what it is.

There are a few more bright spots, though. James Harrison is starting to really turn it on. Someone told me that he plays as much as his predecessor, who was on the field for about 40 percent of the snaps. I think that this has let Harrison stay healthy, and now that teams are starting to get banged up, his decline is less noticeable. Peko, our NT, has been fine all year and his play is stepping up as well. Gilberry is landing some harsh hits on opposing QB's - legal ones too - and it's cool.

Simple Jaded
11-19-2013, 03:58 PM
Im pretty sure I'd still nail her

True, true, but the picture in question was a picture of Hoffs back in the day. If she looked like a dude I might have some repressed issues to deal with.

CoachChaz
11-19-2013, 04:15 PM
True, true, but the picture in question was a picture of Hoffs back in the day. If she looked like a dude I might have some repressed issues to deal with.

I agree. If it helps, just Google pictures of her. There are a ton of hot ones from the 80's and a bunch from today. Still pretty hot for a 54 year old

Simple Jaded
11-19-2013, 04:32 PM
How did we ever live w/o Google?

NightTrainLayne
11-19-2013, 05:01 PM
I turn 26 on Monday. They look like dudes.

You should have seen the dudes back then. Google "Poison look what the cat dragged in" album cover. :D

Poet
11-19-2013, 05:02 PM
You should have seen the dudes back then. Google "Poison look what the cat dragged in" album cover. :D

Whoa.