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View Full Version : Football Gameplan's 2013 Week 11 Preview - Broncos vs Chiefs



EmDiggy
11-13-2013, 01:45 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHjbAnpHzX4

Good afternoon Broncos fans! Good luck this week!

Em

CoachChaz
11-13-2013, 02:05 PM
So THIS is the week where the Chiefs offense becomes dynamic? I dont see it.

underrated29
11-13-2013, 03:44 PM
Been missing these videos for a while now.

Thanks. I do not see how the chiefs win at all though.

CoachChaz
11-13-2013, 03:48 PM
Been missing these videos for a while now.

Thanks. I do not see how the chiefs win at all though.

Well...Charles, Avery and McCluster will all be on the field and will all have career games. I mean all 3 of them combined have a total of two 100 yard games all year with one coming against TENN and the other against PHI...but THIS is the week when they all put it together at the same time in an Andy Reid offense and light the world on fire.

That's how KC will beat Denver.

underrated29
11-13-2013, 03:56 PM
Im kinda feeling this will be like the ravens game. No questions asked. Nothing left to be said. We utterly destroy them. It just has that feeling....

CoachChaz
11-13-2013, 04:03 PM
Im kinda feeling this will be like the ravens game. No questions asked. Nothing left to be said. We utterly destroy them. It just has that feeling....

I think the days od winning with defense are over as it pertains to playing teams with strong offenses. Look at the records of some of the teams in the top 10 in total defense...HOU, CLE, TEN, PIT, NYJ. Those teams dont have the offenses to support the defense and they lose. The ones that have an offense to help...NO, CAR, SF, SEA...are the ones that win. The exception this far has been KC, but they really havent played any strong offenses yet. The argument has been made for Philly, but that's the same Philly offense that mustered a total of 3 points against the dead last Cowboys defense.

I just dont see them holding our offnse to less than 24 points at the absolute best...and I cant see them getting lucky enough to score more than that.

Another stat to think about...in the last 2 games against CLE and BUF...the Chiefs had a total of ONE sack.

Joel
11-13-2013, 08:27 PM
Interesting takes, especially on the key plays. If I understood the idea on KCs D, there'll be an ILB covering Welker in the slot, a matchup we should usually win if Manning has any kind of protection.

Of course, part of the arithmetic there is the play diagrammed on the flip side, where Denver has a TE pass blocking. I actually like that idea a lot, given all the pounding Manning's taken recently, but would put him on the other side to help LT Clark, who's given up strip-sacks off Mannings blindside in three straight games, costing a safety and TD drive the first time and short TD drives the other two. I have far more faith in Franklin right now, and even if he doesn't merit it Manning can at least see the blitzer coming. I'm hoping we see a lot of Joel Dreesen (possibly with Jacob Tamme/Virgil Green,) because our line needs the help.

I really think our blocking and run D will be the story of this game one way or the other. The Chiefs D is actually in the BOTTOM 10 against the run, so if we get Knowshon Moreno going with solid (not necessarily spectacular) relief from Montee Ball/C.J. Anderson it could be a fairly unstressed painless day for Manning—but if we had that kind of blocking he wouldn't already be hobbling. If we can't run on a weak run D we MUST at least block well enough Manning has time to pass, else even a win might be season-ending.

It's time for real TEs who block and catch equally well (i.e. Dreesen/Tamme.) Green's a nice choice as a blocker, too, but he doesn't have the receiving record Dreesen and Tamme do, and their ability to keep defenses guessing whether it's a run or pass, and whether they're blocking in EITHER case, could be critical. The offenses biggest advantage is they know what they're planning and the defense doesn't, so it's important not to tip their hand with TEs catch but can't run or vice versa (the same applies to third down RBs, incidentally; fortunately Moreno's versatile.)

Other than blocking, my one concern is the press coverage you mentioned: Everyone plays us that way now, and refs inexplicably allow it even 10-15 yds downfield, which greatly hinders all passing, but especially those quick hit short passes designed to beat blitzes. It's one thing that perplexes me about the NFL right now: Illegal Contact can't be called within 5 yds of the line, but if defenders grab receivers when the ball's in the air it's supposed to be Holding or PI WHEREVER it happens. Yet, in practice, it's not, and KC can probably get away with it just like everyone else has.

Defensively, I'm not too concerned against a weak offense. Their sole strengths are running Charles and Smith extending broken plays, and rushing QBs have hurt us a few times, but our run D has greatly improved since adding huge Terrance Knighton and Kevin Vickerson at DT; they don't get lots of sacks, but sealing off the inside is a big reason former starting WLB Wesley Woodyard has been such a great starting MLB this year despite being lighter than prototypical 4-3 MLBs. Vickerson reportedly gained 50 lbs. yet nearly HALVED his body fat in the 2012 preseason, and it shows: http://preview.tinyurl.com/og5lkug

Whether starting the season with a month of blowouts inflated our third ranked run Ds stats as much as it deflated our passing Ds remains to be seen, but if we can contain Charles and stay in our lanes against Smith KCs unremarkable offense should remain just that. Their line is nothing special, so it's even possible doubleteaming Miller will provide Derek Wolfe, Shaun Phillips or Robert Ayers sacks (Phillips and Ayers have taken turns as team sack leaders despite rotating at the same position.)

The bottom line remains our blocking. Even a win is a loss if Manning misses the trip to NE and/or rematch @KC; if he's gone for the season so is it. The Chiefs lead the NFL in takeaways, and we've been giving it away at an alarming rate recently, usually with blindside strip-sacks that injure Manning, or guys grabbing his arm as he throws. On top of that, our #2 RB was demoted to #4 due to fumbles at critical times, and Ball has had some issues, too, so all RBs must keep both hands on the ball.

It's not just pass blocking though: Morenos average has fallen from 5.1 per carry the first month to 3.3 since RT Orlando Franklins injury piled onto LT Ryan Cladys season-ending one. He's still running with determination, keeping his legs moving and breaking tackles, but without the 2-3 yds of line surge he once had draws and counters that used to go for 5-6 yds are only turning in 2 (or -2) now, and the stretch play that went for 20 yd TDs in two early games is lucky to get a first down. We're back to letting Moreno get hit in the backfield and fight to the LoS, which isn't good.

I'm hoping the X-factor Sunday is Dreesen and/or Tamme at TE, both to help Clark protect Mannings blindside far better than at any point in the last month, and seal the edge on Morenos end runs. Dontari Poe is a huge concern there; neither LG Zane Beadles nor C Manny Ramirez have the strength to push back a true 3-4 NT, which could give both Moreno and Manning figurative and literal headaches, and TEs won't help.

Ideally, I'd rotate Dreesen/Tamme on the left as legit blocking AND receiving options (i.e. TEs, not big WRs or fast Ts) and Julius Thomas/Welker on the other. Guys who can cover Welker can't tackle Thomas; guys who can tackle Thomas can't cover Welker (or often even Thomas.) If it gets really ugly, a 2 TE set with Dreesen on one side and Green/Tamme on the other is justified and might be productive.

Good vid and interesting analysis, as always, even if I don't like the prediction; thanks, Em. :salute:

Joel
11-13-2013, 08:31 PM
I think the days od winning with defense are over as it pertains to playing teams with strong offenses. Look at the records of some of the teams in the top 10 in total defense...HOU, CLE, TEN, PIT, NYJ. Those teams dont have the offenses to support the defense and they lose. The ones that have an offense to help...NO, CAR, SF, SEA...are the ones that win. The exception this far has been KC, but they really havent played any strong offenses yet. The argument has been made for Philly, but that's the same Philly offense that mustered a total of 3 points against the dead last Cowboys defense.

I just dont see them holding our offnse to less than 24 points at the absolute best...and I cant see them getting lucky enough to score more than that.

Another stat to think about...in the last 2 games against CLE and BUF...the Chiefs had a total of ONE sack.
Covered previously: Clevelands LT is a six time Pro Bowler, I regretted cutting Bills RT Erik Pears the moment it happened, and their rookie LT Cordy Glenn has been very impressive so far. Replace Clark with any one of them and I worry much less about Sunday, but we can't do that so it doesn't change anything. The Chiefs offense won't score 24 pts on us, but the 25th ranked 'Skins D put 14 on us (and got the ball back with turnovers after our D forced a pair of their own,) so I wouldn't be stunned if KCs #1 ranked D does at least as well. Especially if we don't protect Manning better than we have the last month.

Simple Jaded
11-15-2013, 10:31 PM
I must have Eric Pears confused with someone else.

Joel
11-16-2013, 07:08 AM
I must have Eric Pears confused with someone else.
My bad: I thought we drafted him, but we signed him as an UDFA. He's the guy who replaced George Foster and got replaced by Ryan Harris (who's also better than Clark, but in Houston now.) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erik_Pears

TXBRONC
11-16-2013, 10:11 AM
Thanks Em but I disagree. The Chiefs don't have that kind of speed other than Charles. McCuster and Avery are more quick than they are fast. Also Smith is not a quarterback like to vertical he is nickel and dimer. I have often described him as more mobile version of Kyle Orton.

Dzone
11-16-2013, 10:39 AM
At the tail end of the video, it says broncoforum.com, it is supposed to be broncosforums.com

Dzone
11-16-2013, 10:44 AM
I must have Eric Pears confused with someone else.
He and Tyler Polumbus are two peas in a pod

Gimpygod
11-18-2013, 02:09 PM
Can we officially say this super nice fella hasn't a clue when diagnosing Broncos games with PFM at the helm? His pick rate would dramatically improve if he simply decided to declare Broncos wins every game... like us!

TXBRONC
11-18-2013, 07:20 PM
Can we officially say this super nice fella hasn't a clue when diagnosing Broncos games with PFM at the helm? His pick rate would dramatically improve if he simply decided to declare Broncos wins every game... like us!

Emory always has some good points when he makes his analysis. I don't always agree with him but he still does a pretty good job.

Joel
11-18-2013, 07:29 PM
Believe it or not, the division and homefield's still KCs to lose thanks to their schedule being even weaker than ours and our four turnovers @Indy. We definitely increased the pressure yesterday, but I wouldn't be surprised if they held something back for the always brutal Arrowhead game, because that was the REALLY big one from the start. It was always the one that would offer one us the chance to virtually end the division race unless one of us stumbles elsewhere. As long as they hold serve and don't lose more games than us to SD and Oakland they probably win the division on the common opponent tiebreak if:

1) We lose @NE OR 2) KC wins hosting Indy.

It gets better: Even if we SWEEP KC, NE could get homefield if they beat us (though we'd avoid a wildcard.) We'd both have just 2 losses, and they face no more winning foes (only Miami is even .500.) The good news is that if we win all four November games (OK, one is Dec. 1; you know what I mean) we should get homefield; the bad news is losing just ONE may make us the #2 seed, and probably #5 if the loss is @KC.

Perhaps the best news is NE does still have ONE other winning opponent left—for about four more hours: If they lose @Carolina tonight the race for AFC homefield comes down to Arrowhead Dec. 1. I'll DEFINITELY be watching that game closely, and not just to see if they lose: They're also starting a thirdstring NT, backup RT for Solder (playing LT since Vollmers broken leg,) a Gronk only now fully participating again and have two CBs (including Talib) listed as Questionable. Huge Panthers fan tonight; a Carolina win makes life SO much simpler for us (or, y'know, KC.)

Anyway, point being: Don't count Em Diggy out just yet; everything he could predicted could still happen two weeks from now and make him look like a genius. ;)

Simple Jaded
11-19-2013, 01:09 AM
My bad: I thought we drafted him, but we signed him as an UDFA. He's the guy who replaced George Foster and got replaced by Ryan Harris (who's also better than Clark, but in Houston now.) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erik_Pears
And he sucks.

CoachChaz
11-19-2013, 10:12 AM
So far I've learned that Erik Pears and Ryan Harris are better tackles than Clark and Joel continues to hate the Broncos while disgustingly over-analyzing mundane details.

I heard Clark ties his shoes a little different than most other left tackles in the game. Can we get six paragraphs on how that affects his soft kick when using the slide technique and how it will inevitably lead to Manning losing a foot?

Joel
11-19-2013, 02:05 PM
And he sucks.
Pears is a starter, more than Clark can say. Even though I usually assume EVERYONE from Notre Dame overrated, I concede Harris was better (when healthy) but liked Pears, too. Clark was very good last week, and if he plays the rest of the season like he did against Hali and Ware I'll have no complaints. However, if he plays like he did against Mathis and Orakpo I won't be the only one carrying a pitchfork.

Simple Jaded
11-19-2013, 02:32 PM
Pears isa starter, more than Clark can say. Even though I usually assume EVERYONE from Notre Dame overrated, I concede Harris was better (when healthy) but liked Pears, too. Clark was very good last week, and if he plays the rest of the season like he did against Hali and Ware I'll have no complaints. However, if he plays like he did against Mathis and Orakpo I won't be the only one carrying a pitchfork.
Meh, Pears started TC battling Chris Hairston for the RT spot. Sounds like he's the lesser of two evils.

I'll take Clark, Pears hasn't played LT since his rookie season.

TXBRONC
11-19-2013, 04:36 PM
IIRC Pears has very slow feet.

Simple Jaded
11-19-2013, 04:59 PM
IIRC Pears has very slow feet.

Pretty much, he was another one of those late round gems that Shanatan tried to turn into chicken soup.

CoachChaz
11-19-2013, 05:33 PM
He was actually a UDFA. But, he has been released by the Raiders and Jags and starts for the Bills...and somehow he's a "good" lineman? I'll take Clark and even Winston Justice over Pears any day

Joel
11-20-2013, 11:11 AM
Meh, Pears started TC battling Chris Hairston for the RT spot. Sounds like he's the lesser of two evils.

I'll take Clark, Pears hasn't played LT since his rookie season.
He's started 34 games at RT in the last three years though, as opposed to Clark starting 14 (6 as a TE.) Again, I prefer Ryan Harris, but to hear people talk around here one would think Clark's Forrest Gregg. Reckon we'll see; Ninkovich gave us Hell the last three times we played NE, and I bet KC blitzes the crap out of us in Arrowhead.

CoachChaz
11-20-2013, 11:15 AM
He's started 34 games at RT in the last three years though, as opposed to Clark starting 14 (6 as a TE.) Again, I prefer Ryan Harris, but to hear people talk around here one would think Clark's Forrest Gregg. Reckon we'll see; Ninkovich gave us Hell the last three times we played NE, and I bet KC blitzes the crap out of us in Arrowhead.

I hope KC blitzes the crap out of us

Ravage!!!
11-20-2013, 12:37 PM
I hope KC blitzes the crap out of us

me too! Manning loves the blitz, and our underneath routes will thrive.

Joel
11-20-2013, 01:14 PM
me too! Manning loves the blitz, and our underneath routes will thrive.
If the refs call the DBs fairly, like they did last week, that's probably true; if they call 'em like all our other games, not necessarily. Manning could get hammered regardless, and calling audibles over a jet engines roar won't be as easy as it was in Denver. Technically, OSHA regs dictate players should wear earplugs at EVERY game, but KC could break their own loudness record against us.

Ravage!!!
11-20-2013, 01:34 PM
If the refs call the DBs fairly, like they did last week, that's probably true; if they call 'em like all our other games, not necessarily. Manning could get hammered regardless, and calling audibles over a jet engines roar won't be as easy as it was in Denver. Technically, OSHA regs dictate players should wear earplugs at EVERY game, but KC could break their own loudness record against us.

Manning has played in loud stadiums. It's amazing how quiet that stadium will be once they are 2 scores down. Its EASY to get loud for a single moment when trying to break a record. Not so much through an entire game.

Manning has been beating blitzes all year long, refs calling it correctly or not.

Joel
11-20-2013, 02:49 PM
Manning has played in loud stadiums. It's amazing how quiet that stadium will be once they are 2 scores down. Its EASY to get loud for a single moment when trying to break a record. Not so much through an entire game.

Manning has been beating blitzes all year long, refs calling it correctly or not.
If we can score a lot early, yeah, but we weren't up two scores until near the end of the third AT HOME. Blitz-beaters work a lot better when DBs can't get away with holding and PI; it's one thing I'm concerned about if we end up playing the Legion of Boom for all the marbles.