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TheReverend
10-30-2013, 03:29 PM
The Defense is Back, Peyton’s Arm and Midseason NFL Awards

http://patrickturley.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/i-6DhL9Hg-L.jpg

But first… I must apologize for no write-up last week. I managed to set aside some time to start writing my ode to Shanahan and soon stepped back to notice that’s exactly what it was going to be… in fact, it probably could be held against me in a court of law if I break the restraining order. Again. So, I’ll refrain and move on and let Terrell Davis speak for me with, “He’s the Vince Lombardi of Denver”.

And as the Broncos go, so does this crappy-blog, so let’s rebound with some football talk after a great win against the greatest and tannest coach (No, you don’t count, Mike Tomlin) there has ever been.

The Defense is Back?

It never left. While certainly impacted by the absence of key players like Woodyard and Miller, people simply have unrealistic expectations of all things defense and have turned facets of that aspect of the game into complete hyperbole.

Pass rush is a massive area of hyperbole. “We have no pass rush! Where’s the pressue?!” is what guys say when pressure doesn’t work. In this game, RGIII was sacked or under duress on over 42% of his throws, which is a fantastic amount. In the much maligned “pressure-lacking” Cowboys game, Romo was sacked or under duress on nearly twice that… but the pressure didn’t work and Romo managed to not only extend the play but his receivers similarly converted.

Zone defenses routinely get comments like “Guys are wide open! Where’s the coverage?!” which sometimes is indicative of zone coverages. In a zone defense, defensive backs are playing the Quarterback (and his eyes) first, then the receiver and finally the ball. In man coverage, defensive backs are playing the receiver (in bump, corners will key receiver and quarterback if they’re using their read steps), and then the ball. Yes, zones have seams where it appears no defender is near. Unfortunately, defenses are limited to 11 players who cannot make contact after 5 yards (*unless you’re playing against the Broncos, then prison rules apply), and those openings happen.

Most importantly, the NFL does not function on a round-robin basis. Every team’s perception, production and results are all quite literally a product of their competition. Our defense’s best results have come against the Giants, Raiders, Jaguars and Redskins, while their worst performances came against the two best opponents they’ve faced—the Cowboys and Colts… is anyone surprised?

To exemplify this a little further, the Denver Broncos are scoring 43 points a game. Does that mean every team we’ve faced has a terrible defense? Not even close. Even factoring in the public sodomy inflicted by the Broncos, the Colts (#8), Ravens (#11) and Raiders (#12) are top half scoring defenses.

The Broncos are the best team in the league and everyone knows it. Professionals rarely lay down and die. These are proud men with chips on their shoulder who don’t like being told they’re inferior. Because of this, the Broncos need to be prepared for EVERY team’s best shot. Offensively and defensively. A huge part of being ready to combat this is found in…Rest (Peyton, Awards, ATS picks and That's Good Broncos) found at: http://patrickturley.org/the-defense-is-back-peytons-arm-and-midseason-nfl-awards/

ShaneFalco
10-30-2013, 10:45 PM
Ya RGIII got destroyed

Joel
11-02-2013, 12:03 PM
It's not that we didn't get pressure without Miller, it's that we RARELY got pressure without a BLITZ. Sure, we can bump a QB with six, seven, eight guys—but a good QB won't have the ball anymore, because he'll see the blitz and too many guys will be open. Kaepernick might let us get away with that, but Brady won't, and Rivers probably won't either. Guy's aren't getting open by finding seams in our zone, they're getting open because their QB has too long to throw and even the best secondary can't cover everyone forever.

Peytons arm is less an issue than his passing is; his arm didn't sprain BOTH his ankles. If a receiver runs a 4.4 40 that's about how long Peyton needs to throw him a pass 40 yds downfield (minus flight time and plus jams at the line.) When he has less time the pass will either be a shorter completion or an overthrown incomplete; no way around that.

I'd hold off on projecting new season records halfway through the current one if I were you (which, of course, I'm not.) Injuries and bad games happen; season records are season records because players performed at a high level throughout all or most of a season, not just half of it. Even when everything goes right, a guy can rush for 200 yds against a good team, put his team in position for a kick that send them to the playoffs, and still come up just short of the single season record solely because his back-breaking run was stopped at the 11 instead of the 2. Records were made to be broken, but not annually.

TheReverend
11-02-2013, 12:44 PM
It's not that we didn't get pressure without Miller, it's that we RARELY got pressure without a BLITZ. Sure, we can bump a QB with six, seven, eight guys—but a good QB won't have the ball anymore, because he'll see the blitz and too many guys will be open. Kaepernick might let us get away with that, but Brady won't, and Rivers probably won't either. Guy's aren't getting open by finding seams in our zone, they're getting open because their QB has too long to throw and even the best secondary can't cover everyone forever.

Peytons arm is less an issue than his passing is; his arm didn't sprain BOTH his ankles. If a receiver runs a 4.4 40 that's about how long Peyton needs to throw him a pass 40 yds downfield (minus flight time and plus jams at the line.) When he has less time the pass will either be a shorter completion or an overthrown incomplete; no way around that.

I'd hold off on projecting new season records halfway through the current one if I were you (which, of course, I'm not.) Injuries and bad games happen; season records are season records because players performed at a high level throughout all or most of a season, not just half of it. Even when everything goes right, a guy can rush for 200 yds against a good team, put his team in position for a kick that send them to the playoffs, and still come up just short of the single season record solely because his back-breaking run was stopped at the 11 instead of the 2. Records were made to be broken, but not annually.

We're a base cover 1 team (man coverage). That means we're a base pressure team with a free man to blitz.

Holding that against them is a solid mix of both silly and ignorant.

SR
11-02-2013, 01:08 PM
We're a base cover 1 team (man coverage). That means we're a base pressure team with a free man to blitz. Holding that against them is a solid mix of both silly and ignorant.

Why do they play zone so much?

Joel
11-02-2013, 03:30 PM
We're a base cover 1 team (man coverage). That means we're a base pressure team with a free man to blitz.

Holding that against them is a solid mix of both silly and ignorant.
Hey, I'm okay with blitzing A LB, even prefer it, because we can still cover the field with six guys or (five guys and a safety deep.) It's when we start blitzing six or seven I worry about hot reads. Though it was my understanding Cover 1 vs. Cover 2 refers to the number of safeties deep, and the end of last years season doesn't exactly vindicate leaving one rather than two safeties deep.

If we got consistent pressure with five (i.e. not coverage sacks after a QB has "all month to throw" as an announcer put it during one of our recent games) I'd be fully satisified. Instead we get OCCASIONAL pressure unless we send the house and leave someone open. It was better once we got Miller and Woodyard back against Washington, especially after our offense spent most of the third quarter on the field and took the lead at the start of the fourth, forcing the 'Skins to pass from behind as the clock ran, but it remains to be seen if that will be the norm.

Yet if it is, we're in trouble, both in the next month and a half and in the playoffs. Vollmer and Solder are both excellent tackles; if we have to send half a dozen guys to get through Brady will destroy us. Again.

Simple Jaded
11-02-2013, 09:00 PM
Vollmer is out for the season, Joel, replaced by Marcus Cannon. Cannon is a good player though, woulda been a low 1st to high 2nd round pick if it weren't for some kind of cancer discovered at combine.

Broncolingus
11-03-2013, 04:04 PM
I have no problem saying that Manning's arm strength (and just health in general) gets pretty high on my radar towards the end of the season and into the playoffs...