TXBRONC
09-06-2009, 08:15 AM
http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_13279238
Klis: Warning — Hope can take big hit
By Mike Klis
The Denver Post
Posted: 09/06/2009 01:00:00 AM MDT
There are always warnings, always reasons for hope.
The Detroit Lions have gone 7-1 in their past two preseasons. And they have gone 1-23 in their past two regular seasons, going back to their 44-7 drubbing of the Broncos in Week 8 of the 2007 season. (Neither head coach in that game, Rod Marinelli and Mike Shanahan, are head coaches in 2009).
In 2005, the Indianapolis Colts had an NFL-worst 0-5 record in the preseason, then went an NFL-best 14-2 in the regular season.
The preseason means nothing. And to Turk Schonert, Chan Gailey and Jeff Jagodzinski, the preseason means everything. These three offensive coordinators were fired last week, taking the fall for horrific quarterback play.
There were 121 players who threw passes this preseason. Buffalo's Trent Edwards, Tampa Bay's Josh Freeman and Kansas City's Tyler Thigpen ranked 106th, 107th and 113th, respectively. They combined for two touchdown passes and nine interceptions.
And so Buffalo fired Schonert, the Chiefs fired Gailey and Tampa Bay fired Jagodzinski.
Fair enough.
From the mixed message that is the NFL preseason, the trick is to figure out which performances should be ignored and which should be considered signs.
• Super Bowl XLIV: Packers vs. Colts: The Packers' starters played 5 1/2 quarters in their first three games and outscored the Browns, Bills and Cardinals by a combined 73-10. Aaron Rodgers could not have played better if he was quarterbacking against SMU, Eastern Michigan and Nicholls State.
The Colts were 1-3, which means all is well. They were 1-4 in 2008, 1-3 in 2007, 1-3 in 2006 (when they won the Super Bowl) and 0-5 in 2005.
Their combined preseason record the last five years: 4-18.
Their combined regular-season record the previous four years: 51-13.
Peyton Manning is back healthy and was sharp in the preseason (136.0 rating), and the Colts don't have to worry about keeping a washed-up Marvin Harrison happy this year.
My backup prediction: Miami vs. the New York Giants (the Bill Parcells Bowl).
• The Broncos' defense will improve from woeful to above average. In the 2007 preseason, the Broncos' defense ranked 27th. Don't worry, the Broncos said, it's only the preseason. They ranked 28th in points allowed during the regular season.
In the 2008 preseason, the Broncos' defense ranked 22nd. It ranked 29th during the regular season, 30th in points allowed.
During the just-completed preseason, the Broncos' new go-get- the-quarterback defense ranked seventh. They may not be a top-10 defense during the regular season, but the Broncos shouldn't finish 28th, 29th or 30th, either.
• It's time for New England to slip. Part of this is based on the percentages. In this decade of extreme NFL parity, the Patriots are overdue for at least a .500 record during this 21st century run of eight consecutive winning seasons, seven seasons of at least 10 wins, six playoff appearances, four Super Bowl appearances and three world titles.
Yes, Bill Belichick remains and Tom Brady is back healthy. But Belichick has taken some substantial hits to his deputy department in recent years, losing Scott Pioli, who helped him build the roster; Josh McDaniels, who called all the offensive plays; and Thomas Dimitroff, who led the scouting department.
• Don't be surprised by comebacks of Matt Leinart and Vince Young. The two quarterbacks selected ahead of Jay Cutler in the 2006 draft have been bashed as busts the past two years.
But Leinart and Young had encouraging preseasons, and both have aging quarterbacks ahead of them in Kurt Warner, 38, and Kerry Collins, 36.
Except for maybe John Elway, 35- something-year-old quarterbacks don't have back-to-back magical seasons.
Klis: Warning — Hope can take big hit
By Mike Klis
The Denver Post
Posted: 09/06/2009 01:00:00 AM MDT
There are always warnings, always reasons for hope.
The Detroit Lions have gone 7-1 in their past two preseasons. And they have gone 1-23 in their past two regular seasons, going back to their 44-7 drubbing of the Broncos in Week 8 of the 2007 season. (Neither head coach in that game, Rod Marinelli and Mike Shanahan, are head coaches in 2009).
In 2005, the Indianapolis Colts had an NFL-worst 0-5 record in the preseason, then went an NFL-best 14-2 in the regular season.
The preseason means nothing. And to Turk Schonert, Chan Gailey and Jeff Jagodzinski, the preseason means everything. These three offensive coordinators were fired last week, taking the fall for horrific quarterback play.
There were 121 players who threw passes this preseason. Buffalo's Trent Edwards, Tampa Bay's Josh Freeman and Kansas City's Tyler Thigpen ranked 106th, 107th and 113th, respectively. They combined for two touchdown passes and nine interceptions.
And so Buffalo fired Schonert, the Chiefs fired Gailey and Tampa Bay fired Jagodzinski.
Fair enough.
From the mixed message that is the NFL preseason, the trick is to figure out which performances should be ignored and which should be considered signs.
• Super Bowl XLIV: Packers vs. Colts: The Packers' starters played 5 1/2 quarters in their first three games and outscored the Browns, Bills and Cardinals by a combined 73-10. Aaron Rodgers could not have played better if he was quarterbacking against SMU, Eastern Michigan and Nicholls State.
The Colts were 1-3, which means all is well. They were 1-4 in 2008, 1-3 in 2007, 1-3 in 2006 (when they won the Super Bowl) and 0-5 in 2005.
Their combined preseason record the last five years: 4-18.
Their combined regular-season record the previous four years: 51-13.
Peyton Manning is back healthy and was sharp in the preseason (136.0 rating), and the Colts don't have to worry about keeping a washed-up Marvin Harrison happy this year.
My backup prediction: Miami vs. the New York Giants (the Bill Parcells Bowl).
• The Broncos' defense will improve from woeful to above average. In the 2007 preseason, the Broncos' defense ranked 27th. Don't worry, the Broncos said, it's only the preseason. They ranked 28th in points allowed during the regular season.
In the 2008 preseason, the Broncos' defense ranked 22nd. It ranked 29th during the regular season, 30th in points allowed.
During the just-completed preseason, the Broncos' new go-get- the-quarterback defense ranked seventh. They may not be a top-10 defense during the regular season, but the Broncos shouldn't finish 28th, 29th or 30th, either.
• It's time for New England to slip. Part of this is based on the percentages. In this decade of extreme NFL parity, the Patriots are overdue for at least a .500 record during this 21st century run of eight consecutive winning seasons, seven seasons of at least 10 wins, six playoff appearances, four Super Bowl appearances and three world titles.
Yes, Bill Belichick remains and Tom Brady is back healthy. But Belichick has taken some substantial hits to his deputy department in recent years, losing Scott Pioli, who helped him build the roster; Josh McDaniels, who called all the offensive plays; and Thomas Dimitroff, who led the scouting department.
• Don't be surprised by comebacks of Matt Leinart and Vince Young. The two quarterbacks selected ahead of Jay Cutler in the 2006 draft have been bashed as busts the past two years.
But Leinart and Young had encouraging preseasons, and both have aging quarterbacks ahead of them in Kurt Warner, 38, and Kerry Collins, 36.
Except for maybe John Elway, 35- something-year-old quarterbacks don't have back-to-back magical seasons.