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View Full Version : A question I asked twice in another thread that wasn't answered.



BroncoWave
01-15-2013, 08:01 PM
Maybe this is just a gap in my football knowledge but I just don't get it when someone says that the Chargers will have an advantage now because McCoy knows Manning's tendencies.

What possible knowledge of Manning's tendencies could McCoy have that couldn't also be gained from simply watching film on him? I know he sees him in practice and works with him, but as far as things like what plays he likes on 3rd and 7 or who he likes to throw to out of a certain formation, what value could McCoy add that any other team couldn't obtain by watching the film? Yeah he knows the audible calls, but those almost assuredly change every season, especially if there is a coaching change I would imagine.

And this could apply to any situation in which a player or coach goes against a former team. I always hear that the team with the other team's former player or coach has the advantage of knowing the inside secrets. I just don't know what secrets could be provided that you can't find out from the film. I've also never seen any statistical evidence correlating teams having more success when they have a coach or player who used to be on the opposing team.

Am I just completely missing something or is this entire concept a myth like I think it is?

Buff
01-15-2013, 08:18 PM
I am sort of annoyed at this question, since it's mostly self evident. I think you have to come from a position of arrogance to assume it wouldn't affect us negatively. But since you and Coach and a few others seem adamant, I will give you my take.

First of all - Manning's body is unique after 4 surgeries. There are throws he can make, throws he can't and limitations that are specific to him... He certainly would have disclosed all of those weaknesses to McCoy throughout the year as they gameplanned. So that's the biggest thing - he knows Manning inside and out.

He also knows what Manning likes to do in almost all situations because they obviously discussed preferences, strengths/weaknesses as they gameplanned. e.g. Does Manning prefer comebacks on 3rd down with a certain set of variables that aren't evident on film? He knows the logic behind calling certain plays at certain times.

He also knows how we like to attack the current Chargers roster.

Plus - the offense is actually pretty simple - http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8828013/how-return-simplicity-peyton-manning-indy-offense-ignited-denver-broncos - so it's not like a Shanahan style offense that completely changed from week to week. It's fairly static, and arguably easier to pick out nuances that would help a team defend against it.

BroncoWave
01-15-2013, 08:25 PM
Given how simple the offense is and how he's been using it for his entire career, I don't think anyone is going to figure out how to shut it down if they haven't already.

As for throws he can't make after the surgery, don't you think teams would notice in film that out of 583 passing attempts there are some types of passes he didn't attempt once?

Also, seeing as we played Jim Caldwell twice this season, why didn't they completely shut down Manning both times? I mean, he should know all his tendencies too right?

WTE
01-15-2013, 08:30 PM
Given how simple the offense is and how he's been using it for his entire career, I don't think anyone is going to figure out how to shut it down if they haven't already.

As for throws he can't make after the surgery, don't you think teams would notice in film that out of 583 passing attempts there are some types of passes he didn't attempt once?

Also, seeing as we played Jim Caldwell twice this season, why didn't they completely shut down Manning both times? I mean, he should know all his tendencies too right?

You're right BTB. It's not all about one player. 45 guys dress for the game and 45 guys can beat you. The McCoy hire is no advantage at all.

See Allen, Dennis.

Buff
01-15-2013, 08:30 PM
Given how simple the offense is and how he's been using it for his entire career, I don't think anyone is going to figure out how to shut it down if they haven't already.

As for throws he can't make after the surgery, don't you think teams would notice in film that out of 583 passing attempts there are some types of passes he didn't attempt once?

Also, seeing as we played Jim Caldwell twice this season, why didn't they completely shut down Manning both times? I mean, he should know all his tendencies too right?

Caldwell was with him pre-surgery.

I'm not saying it's earth shattering. But it seems pretty clear that McCoy stands to benefit from his inside knowledge - especially in the first year.

slim
01-15-2013, 08:33 PM
Did Dennis Allen have an advantage this year?

Did Mike Shannan have one when he left Denver to coach the Raiders?

I call B.S.

UnderArmour
01-15-2013, 08:37 PM
The classic example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_XXXVII
This game as well: http://espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=291011007
Countless Mangini vs. Belichick matchups

The Ravens with Caldwell as their offensive coordinator effectively shut down Peyton twice (though that can be attributed to the Ravens stellar secondary).


Any time you have a coach leave they are bound to have in-depth knowledge of that team and of the players they coached. While it's difficult to pinpoint all of the specifics in writing, it's one thing to see something on film and it's another entirely when you were the one sitting there game planning and watching a player play. Only the coaches know how the play was supposed to be drawn up. With Tim Tebow for instance, the Jets (and the rest of the league) may have been under the impression we designed more of those improvised passes/throws than McCoy actually had. Only the coaching staff knows how the plays were supposed to be drawn up. The film may show a player following his progressions but there are lots of pre-snap reads that eliminate unnecessary progressions from the content of film study.

It's definitely not a myth. A coach does have an advantage against his former team that film just doesn't give. It's difficult to put into statistics because it's more of a "human" element to the game. Football just isn't that kind of game and there are too many variables to ask for statistical evidence.

BroncoWave
01-15-2013, 10:48 PM
The classic example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_XXXVII
This game as well: http://espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=291011007
Countless Mangini vs. Belichick matchups

The Ravens with Caldwell as their offensive coordinator effectively shut down Peyton twice (though that can be attributed to the Ravens stellar secondary).


Any time you have a coach leave they are bound to have in-depth knowledge of that team and of the players they coached. While it's difficult to pinpoint all of the specifics in writing, it's one thing to see something on film and it's another entirely when you were the one sitting there game planning and watching a player play. Only the coaches know how the play was supposed to be drawn up. With Tim Tebow for instance, the Jets (and the rest of the league) may have been under the impression we designed more of those improvised passes/throws than McCoy actually had. Only the coaching staff knows how the plays were supposed to be drawn up. The film may show a player following his progressions but there are lots of pre-snap reads that eliminate unnecessary progressions from the content of film study.

It's definitely not a myth. A coach does have an advantage against his former team that film just doesn't give. It's difficult to put into statistics because it's more of a "human" element to the game. Football just isn't that kind of game and there are too many variables to ask for statistical evidence.

But your second and third example don't match. In one, McDaniels is beating his mentor in Bellichick. In the other Bellichick is beating his pupil in Mangini. That just proves the advantages cancel out since BB knows MCD and Mangini's tendencies, but they each know his as well.

BroncoWave
01-15-2013, 10:50 PM
Caldwell was with him pre-surgery.

I'm not saying it's earth shattering. But it seems pretty clear that McCoy stands to benefit from his inside knowledge - especially in the first year.

So he MAY have a SMALL advantage in his FIRST year? If that's the case then color me not worried. I think the only time an advantage like that would really matter is if the talent were relatively equal. And at this point at least, Denver has quite the upper edge in that category.

Buff
01-15-2013, 10:59 PM
So he MAY have a SMALL advantage in his FIRST year? If that's the case then color me not worried. I think the only time an advantage like that would really matter is if the talent were relatively equal. And at this point at least, Denver has quite the upper edge in that category.

I wouldn't say I'm worried. But I think its indisputable that McCoy on day 1 has more of a competitive advantage over us than virtually any other HC San Diego could have hired.

Whether than translates into victories for the Chargers I don't know - but it's not ideal. And it's certainly not a myth that he has material inside information.

NightTrainLayne
01-15-2013, 11:00 PM
I'm not going to lose any sleep over it, but how could it not lead to some advantage that another coach wouldn't have? Intimately knowing something is much preferred to gleaning what you think you know from film study.

We will be able to overcome it, but it's a slight advantage.

BroncoWave
01-15-2013, 11:02 PM
There's also no guarantee the info he currently possess will be valid next year. Our offense will likely be slightly different with a new OC and for all we know Manning will be able to make some throws next year that he wasn't able to this year. I think even his most recent comments he said the arm was still improving and not at 100%.

I just think that so much changes from year to year in the NFL in terms of players or coaches that info only a year old might as well be 100 years old.

BroncoWave
01-15-2013, 11:03 PM
I'm not going to lose any sleep over it, but how could it not lead to some advantage that another coach wouldn't have? Intimately knowing something is much preferred to gleaning what you think you know from film study.

We will be able to overcome it, but it's a slight advantage.

And my point is by the same token Fox knows what McCoy likes to do as well. The results of coaches going against former teams are just too mixed to really see if there is any advantage either way.

Buff
01-15-2013, 11:07 PM
There's also no guarantee the info he currently possess will be valid next year. Our offense will likely be slightly different with a new OC and for all we know Manning will be able to make some throws next year that he wasn't able to this year. I think even his most recent comments he said the arm was still improving and not at 100%.

I just think that so much changes from year to year in the NFL in terms of players or coaches that info only a year old might as well be 100 years old.

But part of what I've been trying to argue is that Manning is the exception to that rule. He will run a virtually identical system next year like he has for virtually his entire career. He will likely have many of the same surgery-induced physical limitations.

BroncoWave
01-15-2013, 11:11 PM
But part of what I've been trying to argue is that Manning is the exception to that rule. He will run a virtually identical system next year like he has for virtually his entire career. He will likely have many of the same surgery-induced physical limitations.

And like I said, if the code on his offense hasn't been cracked in 15 years I'm not overly worried that Mike McCoy will be the one to do it. The teams that slow down Manning do so because they have the personnel to do so. I think most coaches know exactly what he's going to do. It's just a matter of having the talent to stop it.

UnderArmour
01-15-2013, 11:53 PM
But your second and third example don't match. In one, McDaniels is beating his mentor in Bellichick. In the other Bellichick is beating his pupil in Mangini. That just proves the advantages cancel out since BB knows MCD and Mangini's tendencies, but they each know his as well.

Wins aren't the only criteria. Mangini played close games with and beat Belichick on multiple occasions. Hell, one time even with Colt McCoy at quarterback. Like I said, there are just far too many variables. It is undeniably an advantage but how that advantage can be used varies from roster to roster and scheme to scheme. In the case of the Oakland Raiders and Dennis Allen, the talent gap was too big plus their offense was nothing to fear without Hugh calling the shots.

Dapper Dan
01-16-2013, 06:12 AM
So no one seems to be worried about the slight advantage, if there even is one. So what's the big deal exactly?

BroncoWave
01-16-2013, 01:52 PM
So no one seems to be worried about the slight advantage, if there even is one. So what's the big deal exactly?

My thoughts too. It seems like it would only be an issue if there was very little roster and coaching turnover, and if the talent level of each team was equal. I would say that is rarely the case when there are coaching changes.

Buff
01-16-2013, 02:46 PM
So no one seems to be worried about the slight advantage, if there even is one. So what's the big deal exactly?

I don't think anyone said it was a big deal. The issue is the "if there is one" statement. There very clearly will be a nonzero advantage to be gained by McCoy. Impossible to quantify, but it's there.

topscribe
01-16-2013, 03:03 PM
I don't believe it will phase Peyton in the least. After 15 years, the whole league
knows his tendencies. And none of them have stopped him yet. Why should McCoy?
.

Buff
01-16-2013, 03:18 PM
I don't believe it will phase Peyton in the least. After 15 years, the whole league
knows his tendencies. And none of them have stopped him yet. Why should McCoy?
.

For the 1000th time in this thread, he is admittedly a different QB after his surgeries with specific limitations. And McCoy knows those intimately. The previous 14 years are not entirely representative of the guy he is now.

Az Snake
01-16-2013, 03:26 PM
.


All McCoy knows is where Belacheat told McD where to hide all the cameras and bugs.

Before the Broncos get a new OC they need to hire some pro cleaners.
Sweep the offices, locker rooms and all of Dove Valley.


.

BroncoWave
01-16-2013, 03:42 PM
For the 1000th time in this thread, he is admittedly a different QB after his surgeries with specific limitations. And McCoy knows those intimately. The previous 14 years are not entirely representative of the guy he is now.

And I still believe that with a sample size of 583 passes teams can get a pretty good idea on tape of what his physical limitations are.

Buff
01-16-2013, 05:44 PM
And I still believe that with a sample size of 583 passes teams can get a pretty good idea on tape of what his physical limitations are.

But wouldn't you agree there is slightly more value in hearing it straight from the horse's mouth? Takes out all the guess work.

BroncoWave
01-16-2013, 05:45 PM
But wouldn't you agree there is slightly more value in hearing it straight from the horse's mouth? Takes out all the guess work.

I guess it saves the Chargers the time of finding those things out in the film, but I think any team could find them out in the film.

TXBRONC
01-16-2013, 11:29 PM
I am sort of annoyed at this question, since it's mostly self evident. I think you have to come from a position of arrogance to assume it wouldn't affect us negatively. But since you and Coach and a few others seem adamant, I will give you my take.

First of all - Manning's body is unique after 4 surgeries. There are throws he can make, throws he can't and limitations that are specific to him... He certainly would have disclosed all of those weaknesses to McCoy throughout the year as they gameplanned. So that's the biggest thing - he knows Manning inside and out.

He also knows what Manning likes to do in almost all situations because they obviously discussed preferences, strengths/weaknesses as they gameplanned. e.g. Does Manning prefer comebacks on 3rd down with a certain set of variables that aren't evident on film? He knows the logic behind calling certain plays at certain times.

He also knows how we like to attack the current Chargers roster.

Plus - the offense is actually pretty simple - http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8828013/how-return-simplicity-peyton-manning-indy-offense-ignited-denver-broncos - so it's not like a Shanahan style offense that completely changed from week to week. It's fairly static, and arguably easier to pick out nuances that would help a team defend against it.

It's more than just knowing what Manning likes and doesn't like. McCoy is also going have pretty good idea what plays Manning likes different with different personnel groupings. If people think McCoy will be clueless on how Manning likes to attack to defense depending on the personnel are fooling themselves.

DenBronx
01-18-2013, 03:34 PM
I doubt the McCoy hire will phase Manning at all. In fact I wouldnt doubt that Manning changes the wording on the plays and audibles. McCoy doesnt know defense and their DC will have no clue what play Manning is calling, nor will the guys on the field. The defense can see the formation yes but you still have to stop them.

I've seen high powered offenses call a play and you can see the defense in perfect form to stop that one play, yet the offense still executes the play. I give the credit more to the talent on the field and executing whatever play they want.

McCoy only got a year around Manning so it's not like he has this close personal relationship with Manning. I would go as far as to say McCoy learned more from Manning than Manning learned from McCoy. Mannings had a long NFL career and many teams know him yet they still cant stop him.

BeefStew25
01-18-2013, 03:46 PM
This is the most confusing thread ever.

Buff
01-18-2013, 03:50 PM
This is the most confusing thread ever.

BTB reminds me of Jodie Foster.

BeefStew25
01-18-2013, 03:52 PM
BTB reminds me of Jodie Foster.

Like you want to hump him, but you aren't sure if he has holes.

Jaded
01-30-2013, 01:58 AM
Fox has been with McCoy for years, I bet he has some insight into McCoy just the same. It's just inherent in this kind of dynamic.......