3rd and 7

[CrazyHorse]

Why did we run?

[cmc0605]

I didn't mind this play call as much as some other people do. Giving Flacco the game with no timeouts, 80 yards to go, and just over a minute left on the road is not usually a bad strategy.

The fact is that Rahim Moore cost us the game at the 4th quarter. While I blame him, that wasn't the only stinker. Bailey stunk, Prater's missed FG was huge, and other guys just didn't execute when it mattered. 3rd and 13 had them backed up and let the TE catch a ball. Let Boldin wide open, etc etc. It's all about execution, and they couldn't do it.

[Dreadnought]

It was the right call. Ran off 45 seconds, the punt wasn't as good as could have hoped for, and NO FRIGGIN' WAY should we have given up a damned 70 yard pass with 30 seconds left. Hell, Von tackling Flacco after a 7 yard run should have been the dagger.

I have no problem whatever with the call.

[chaoticmayhem]

3rd 7..why did we run? Because some people believe in something called "prevent defense". They thought not trying to win the game and rather hoping the other team would screw it up for themselves would insure victory. OOPS.

[G_Money]

Because it's the "Safe" thing to do. It's conventional to lie down and shit the bed rather than go for the first and the win.

Nobody gets fired for doing the safe thing. Always CYA, even if a first down means 100% victory.

~G

[dogfish]

dumbass rahim moore pretty much just gave a win away, no question. . .

i still thought it was a horrible call to take the ball out of manning's hands, though. . . fox has been brilliant all year, but today we played not to lose, and we all know how that works out. . . we quit with thirty seconds and multiple timeouts before the half, quit with time on the clock before the end of the game, and didn't try to convert a third down to win the game with one of the best passers of all time. . .

fox coached like a loser, and now we're all losers. . .

[Buff]

I actually agree with the call 100%. As a coach - you play the percentages. The Ravens had no timeouts, the odds of them being able to go 80 yards with 1:20 and score a TD are slim.

We hadn't been all that effective on offense. No sense in risking an incompletion or a turnover in that instance. Especially since our defense is supposed to be built for that exact scenario.

Rahim Moore monumentally ****** up. You can't predict that kind of catastrophic breakdown as a coach.

[tomjonesrocks]

Just one of like 5 things that unthinkably cost the team the game.

[G_Money]

Except we'd been breaking down on big plays all day, Buff. I actually could predict that.

~G

[tomjonesrocks]

I actually agree with the call 100%. As a coach - you play the percentages. The Ravens had no timeouts, the odds of them being able to go 80 yards with 1:20 and score a TD are slim.

We hadn't been all that effective on offense. No sense in risking an incompletion or a turnover in that instance. Especially since your defense is supposed to be built for that exact scenario.

Rahim Moore monumentally ****** up. You can't predict that kind of catastrophic breakdown as a coach.

What the **** was he doing there? Going for a pick 15 feet over his head?

Though I guess if he'd so much as waved at the receiver they'd have flagged him for PI.

Seriously. How much time is lost if you give Manning a shot to pick up the first and close the game and he fails. 20 seconds?

[Skinny]

I had no problem with a lot of the offense/game management/play calling/etc.... Was it perfect? No. But we did enough on that side of the ball to win the game.


And Rahim Moore looked like a drunk ballerina trying to bat that ball.

[Buff]

Except we'd been breaking down on big plays all day, Buff. I actually could predict that.

~G

Well, you're more omniscient than me.

[Buff]

What the **** was he doing there? Going for a pick 15 feet over his head?

Though I guess if he'd so much as waved at the receiver they'd have flagged him for PI.

Seriously. How much time is lost if you give Manning a shot to pick up the first and close the game and he fails. 20 seconds?

40-45 seconds. Which is a gigantic difference when the other team needs a TD and has no timeouts.

[WARHORSE]

What ticked me off was running the ball continuously up the middle with Ray Lewis sitting there. Hes so slow, and we run it right at him Ngata and Cody. Every time we cut it back we gained yardage, and we never pitched the ball left or right to Hillman, who can EASILY outrun Lewis to the edge and turn the corner. We never did it. Instead we run a tiny RB up the gut.



I hope McCoy leaves YESTERDAY. The run on third and five to Hester SUCKED big time too. Who the heck???

Since we had to run with Hilllman, why the heck we didnt take it around the end I'll never know.

Horrible.Sick and Horrible.

[chaoticmayhem]

3 runs up the gut with the entire defense sitting there waiting for it, with the game on the line. No..I'm not talking about last year with Tebow. I'm talking about this year with PFM. Unbelievable.

[Joel]

Because it was inside 2:00, the Ravens were down by a TD and had no time outs left. That's why they got the ball back with 1:09 left, forced to drive the length of the field just to reach OT. Better question: How the HELL did we let them get deep on 8 DBs knowing all that, especially when the deep ball is the only one Flacco can throw? Those seeking further explanation are directed to #18, who reportedly called the play.

[chaoticmayhem]

here's another scenario...why not just play aggressively until time runs out? Why do that 3 man rush crap that I've personally NEVER seen work successfully. In fact, knowing they had to drive the length of the field I would have sent pressure at flacco and bumped his receivers at the line, forcing them to take the short stuff. Do we need to replace players? yea. 2 safeties would be nice. But better coaching is in order also.

[NightTerror218]

I hated that play. To me it said I don't trust manning. Defense was bad all game, why bet on them over manning?

[TacticalSnook09]

I just don't get how we go for it on 4th and 5 earlier in the game but won't let manning throw the ball on the last drive... If I am the coach and were playing a game like that I'm looking at PFM and telling him to go out there and win this game and throw the ball if need be. Aka 3rd and 7

[NightTerror218]

Why was Miller in coverage most of gam, rarely saw blitzs

[wayninja]

I actually agree with the call 100%. As a coach - you play the percentages. The Ravens had no timeouts, the odds of them being able to go 80 yards with 1:20 and score a TD are slim.

We hadn't been all that effective on offense. No sense in risking an incompletion or a turnover in that instance. Especially since our defense is supposed to be built for that exact scenario.

Rahim Moore monumentally ****** up. You can't predict that kind of catastrophic breakdown as a coach.

I might agree if it were isolated, but "safe" was the battle strategy the entire way. Dink and dunk and up the middle dives. We knew why that was last year. But why in the most important game of the season when you have a HOF QB?

[Mike]

Everyone knew the run was coming, as we all did on all the other 2/3 and shorts. I don't mind conservative playcalls. I thought they should have punted instead of going for the long field goal. But I thought they should have passed on the 3rd and 7. Balt was playing run, we have a great QB and Stokes/TEs were playing great. I would have just rather have gone out swinging than relying on the defense.

[chaoticmayhem]

Everyone knew the run was coming, as we all did on all the other 2/3 and shorts. I don't mind conservative playcalls. I thought they should have punted instead of going for the long field goal. But I thought they should have passed on the 3rd and 7. Balt was playing run, we have a great QB and Stokes/TEs were playing great. I would have just rather have gone out swinging than relying on the defense.

IT's what McCoy does. Remember all those Tebow up the middle runs with the entire defense stacking the line last year? 99.99% chance of a run on 1st down last year? Very creative play calling. And then the one time they don't call a run on 1st the Steelers bite results in a long TD. McCoy is garbage leftover by McDoosh.

[G_Money]

Because it was inside 2:00, the Ravens were down by a TD and had no time outs left. That's why they got the ball back with 1:09 left, forced to drive the length of the field just to reach OT. Better question: How the HELL did we let them get deep on 8 DBs knowing all that, especially when the deep ball is the only one Flacco can throw? Those seeking further explanation are directed to #18, who reportedly called the play.

I disagree with you on the 2nd-and-8 / 3rd-and-7 calls, but the 8 DBs thing was devastating. If you're not gonna rush Flacco then keep somebody behind the receiver, jeez. That was supposed to be Moore and he blew it.

Still, if we rush instead of going retardo-prevent, then Flacco doesn't have enough time to make that throw. That's what bugs me. We shit the bed with conservative stuff on O and D both. And we'd done so well with overcoming Fox's scaredy-cat tendencies all year...

~G

[chaoticmayhem]

I remember when Fox was hired Carolina fans saying his conservative playcalling would show itself eventually and it would come to haunt. Well, there it was. although that was a mccoy call. fox didnt override it.

[Dreadnought]

I disagree with you on the 2nd-and-8 / 3rd-and-7 calls, but the 8 DBs thing was devastating. If you're not gonna rush Flacco then keep somebody behind the receiver, jeez. That was supposed to be Moore and he blew it.

Still, if we rush instead of going retardo-prevent, then Flacco doesn't have enough time to make that throw. That's what bugs me. We shit the bed with conservative stuff on O and D both. And we'd done so well with overcoming Fox's scaredy-cat tendencies all year...

~G

~G, I still think those were smart calls, not "scared" calls. The prevent is the one and only correct defense for that situation...BUT a properly done prevent means nobody gets deeper than your deepest DB. Period. We seem to have forgotten that part, and thats on Moore.

An incompletion on 3rd and 7 leaves them a full two minutes, plenty of time. A minute 15 with 80 yards to go and no TO's leaves them hoping a safety goes brain dead or they pick up a cheesy PI call. hope is a poor strategy, and the object is to win, not prove your manhood.

[dogfish]

~G, I still think those were smart calls, not "scared" calls. The prevent is the one and only correct defense for that situation...BUT a properly done prevent means nobody gets deeper than your deepest DB. Period. We seem to have forgotten that part, and thats on Moore.

An incompletion on 3rd and 7 leaves them a full two minutes, plenty of time. A minute 15 with 80 yards to go and no TO's leaves them hoping a safety goes brain dead or they pick up a cheesy PI call. hope is a poor strategy, and the object is to win, not prove your manhood.

it's purely a matter of opinion, and neither is "right". . . but i personally hate abdicating the chance to win it with your offense on the field. . . is 40 seconds worth more than another down, effectively? worth more than the chance to keep the ball? i don't think it's macho to trust the best player in the game to make a play, rather than relying on a defense that got torched all day. . .

granted, their conservative strategy does get the win if the player executes his simple responsibility. . . but he most likely never gets the chance to blow it if we convert on third down, and it leaves me shaking my head that we didn't try. . .

also, it's not guaranteed that failure to convert the first with a pass would have stopped the clock. . . an incompletion, obviously yes-- but a guy can get tackled in-bounds short of the first. . . doesn't matter either way-- i just don't see why you go get peyton ****in' manning to punt and rely on your defense, any more than i ever understood running on every first and second down with elway. . . fox needs to look at schotty and reeves, and find a little more guts for his post-season playcalling and game management, IMO. . .

[Buff]

it's purely a matter of opinion, and neither is "right". . . but i personally hate abdicating the chance to win it with your offense on the field. . . is 40 seconds worth more than another down, effectively? worth more than the chance to keep the ball? i don't think it's macho to trust the best player in the game to make a play, rather than relying on a defense that got torched all day. . .

granted, their conservative strategy does get the win if the player executes his simple responsibility. . . but he most likely never gets the chance to blow it if we convert on third down, and it leaves me shaking my head that we didn't try. . .

also, it's not guaranteed that failure to convert the first with a pass would have stopped the clock. . . an incompletion, obviously yes-- but a guy can get tackled in-bounds short of the first. . . doesn't matter either way-- i just don't see why you go get peyton ****in' manning to punt and rely on your defense, any more than i ever understood running on every first and second down with elway. . . fox needs to look at schotty and reeves, and find a little more guts for his post-season playcalling and game management, IMO. . .

We have hung our hat on the defense all year long. Peyton wasn't Peyton today either - so it's not like he had a hot hand and we denied it.

I think you go with the percentages and make the Ravens beat you. But as you said, it's purely a matter of opinion.

[NightTerror218]

NFL.com already has an article about Fox playing it safe instead of putting game in Mannings hands. End of half take a knee with 3 times outs and end of regulation takes a knee with time outs remaining. Fox is horrible in playoff. He does not coach to win. He coaches to not lose.

[Buff]

NFL.com already has an article about Fox playing it safe instead of putting game in Mannings hands. End of half take a knee with 3 times outs and end of regulation takes a knee with time outs remaining. Fox is horrible in playoff. He does not coach to win. He coaches to not lose.

I have to believe Peyton's physical limitations played into the decision to kneel at the end of regulation. I think you take a shot if you've got a guy who can zing it 70 yards like Flacco did today.

[NightTerror218]

I have to believe Peyton's physical limitations played into the decision to kneel at the end of regulation. I think you take a shot if you've got a guy who can zing it 70 yards like Flacco did today.

You have 2 time outs and 2 big receivers. Work down field and try long fg. Why is he limited, he had several big plays to Thomas why not work him and sidelines?

[Buff]

You have 2 time outs and 2 big receivers. Work down field and try long fg. Why is he limited, he had several big plays to Thomas why not work him and sidelines?

Well you make the case like it's the easiest thing in the world to work the ball 50-60 yards in 30 seconds. I'm just saying - I think you're discounting Manning's physical inability to throw the ball downfield. Did you see some of the floaters that he put up in the 2nd half? Did you notice the lack of deep balls all day long?

I have to believe the coach's were making a tactical decision based on his limitations. I don't believe they are so risk averse that they wouldn't take a chance if they had any reasonable belief they could get there.

[Poet]

Because it's the "Safe" thing to do. It's conventional to lie down and shit the bed rather than go for the first and the win.

Nobody gets fired for doing the safe thing. Always CYA, even if a first down means 100% victory.

~G

It's safe for a reason. It's conventional for a reason. It wins the game the majority of the time and it makes sense. If you guys don't make it and they get that extra time and drive down the field he would be the laughing stalk of the play.

I'm sorry, but you're just assuming that Manning is going to complete a pass against Baltimore.

[chaoticmayhem]

It's safe for a reason. It's conventional for a reason. It wins the game the majority of the time and it makes sense. If you guys don't make it and they get that extra time and drive down the field he would be the laughing stalk of the play.

I'm sorry, but you're just assuming that Manning is going to complete a pass against Baltimore.

If you have zero faith your future HOF QB you just signed to a huge contract can't pick up 10 yards on 3 plays then you have a serious problem.

[Poet]

If you have zero faith your future HOF QB you just signed to a huge contract can't pick up 10 yards on 3 plays then you have a serious problem.

So when the Patriots do it routinely BB must really think that Brady sucks?

I think you guys may be overreacting.

[NightTerror218]

Well you make the case like it's the easiest thing in the world to work the ball 50-60 yards in 30 seconds. I'm just saying - I think you're discounting Manning's physical inability to throw the ball downfield. Did you see some of the floaters that he put up in the 2nd half? Did you notice the lack of deep balls all day long?

I have to believe the coach's were making a tactical decision based on his limitations. I don't believe they are so risk averse that they wouldn't take a chance if they had any reasonable belief they could get there.

Where is bull about him not Able to throw coming from? He threw some incredible hard accurate passes 2nd half. I think WR could not get open. Inability? You sound like a doubter who said he could never throw a pass again.

[Buff]

So when the Patriots do it routinely BB must really think that Brady sucks?

I think you guys may be overreacting.

Part of it is that we got used to Shanahan-style ball, the ultimate river boat gambler who would pass 10/10 times in that scenario, and Fox is kind of his philosophical opposite.

Two different approaches, both have their merits.

[chaoticmayhem]

So when the Patriots do it routinely BB must really think that Brady sucks?

I think you guys may be overreacting.

When does Brady hand the ball off 3 times so they can run it up the gut? Brady would play action it and throw for the 1st down. Game over.

[Poet]

Part of it is that we got used to Shanahan-style ball, the ultimate river boat gambler who would pass 10/10 times in that scenario, and Fox is kind of his philosophical opposite.

Two different approaches, both have their merits.

Out of respect for your pain I will opt to not troll this delicious post. I'm not drinking a beer right now and I'm thinking of you.

[Poet]

When does Brady hand the ball off 3 times so they can run it up the gut? Brady would play action it and throw for the 1st down. Game over.

In a situation where they are up a score and can give the team just one minute with no timeouts?

When doesn't he or anyone else? You guys are upset about a routine coaching decision that's used by every damn coach. Coaches are supposed to do what makes the team more likely to win. Fox did. It' not his fault that Moore decided that performing the most basic functions of secondary play is for fagz.

[NightTerror218]

U put ball in Manning's hands, he is the best. He either he hits open WR for easy completion or takes a sack to not stop clock. He knows what's on the line. I actually read that on NFL article about FOx playing to not lose and not playing to win. Its playoffs not regular season against AFC West.

[dogfish]

So when the Patriots do it routinely BB must really think that Brady sucks?

I think you guys may be overreacting.

BB also went for it on 4th down from like his own 28 once, because he liked brady better than his defense that night. . .


it doesn't matter, the game's over. . . but i'll never like that call better than an inside screen to the RB, or anything high percentage that gives you an option for both keeping the clock running AND potentially getting the first down. . .

you play the percentages when tony romo is your quarterback. . . or matt stafford, jay cutler, mark sanchez, alex smith or ryan fitzpatrick. . . you play the percentages when your quarterback is joe flacco. . . if your quarterback is drew brees, you play to win the game. . . if your quarterback is tom brady or aaron rogers, you play to win the game. . . if your quarterback is peyton ****ing manning, you play to win the ****ing game! or at least i would. . .

*shrugs*

it's not like playing the percentages locks in the victory, obviously. . .

[G_Money]

It's safe for a reason. It's conventional for a reason. It wins the game the majority of the time and it makes sense. If you guys don't make it and they get that extra time and drive down the field he would be the laughing stalk of the play.

I'm sorry, but you're just assuming that Manning is going to complete a pass against Baltimore.

Why is relying on Manning to win the game a worse plan than relying on a big-play-prone defense of the day to not lose it?

Cuz, um, they lost it.

Yes, you have to play the percentages and just because your call wound up being incorrect doesn't mean the process was wrong...

But we didn't try for a first. It's not like we ran a sweep or did some other play designed to catch them by surprise and try to GAIN the first down while still running the clock. We abdicated. No first down was going to come from those play calls. If some other team had done that to us we'd have laughed. "Give Manning 80 seconds to form a comeback? Suckers..."

Today we were the suckers.

~G

[Poet]

He also looked like a retard and it was wrong. People made it out to be this "he knew his defense couldn't stop them and it was brilliant." In reality he still went for it on his own 28. Once you focus on that you realize...he looked like a retard and was wrong.

Bill Walsh ran the ******* clock out. Cowher ran the clock out. Parcells ran the clock out.

Dogfish, I will rarely ever say this to you, but you are wrong.

[Poet]

Why is relying on Manning to win the game a worse plan than relying on a big-play-prone defense of the day to not lose it?

~G
Because the odds of the defense blowing it was slightly higher than the odds of me spontaneously combusting as I type this.

Throwing a basic screen or a basic play like that is not relying on Manning to win you the game.

[Buff]

Why is relying on Manning to win the game a worse plan than relying on a big-play-prone defense of the day to not lose it?

Cuz, um, they lost it.

Yes, you have to play the percentages and just because your call wound up being incorrect doesn't mean the process was wrong...

But we didn't try for a first. It's not like we ran a sweep or did some other play designed to catch them by surprise and try to GAIN the first down while still running the clock. We abdicated. No first down was going to come from those play calls. If some other team had done that to us we'd have laughed. "Give Manning 80 seconds to form a comeback? Suckers..."

Today we were the suckers.

~G

I'll take our two pro bowl pass rushing specialists and HOF defensive back with 75 seconds, 80 yards, no timeouts, a maniacal crowd and frigid temperatures 100% of the time.

If you throw an incompletion and you give them 2 minutes instead of 1:15 then you are even bigger suckers.

[scott.475]

Not calling out defenders of this series of calls, everyone has their opinion, there is no real rightbor wrong after the fact. I understand he viewpoint, and I could defend it if we'd been playing the same kind of football all year. But on THIS day, there was NOTHING in our play that should have made ANY of our coaches comfortable with giving the ball back to Baltimore. They had ripped us apart all night on long plays. It boggles my kind that someone on our staff though "Okay, THIS time we'll be able to keep them from doing the same hing again! Go ahead, give them the ball!" Truly defies logic, considering how we played all night.

Overall, a lousy game all around. Really, looked like a completely different football team than hat we'd been all year. I just don't understand the almost complete change from what we'd been all season.

[scott.475]

Forgot to add, that series wasn't lost on the 3-and-7, but on the 1st and 10. I KNEW when I sa that 1st run we were giving up the series, and I was 90% sure Balt would score when we punted to them. My rage was burning before the ball was even punted, I was almost positive we'd just lost the game.

[Mike]

I'll take our two pro bowl pass rushing specialists and HOF defensive back with 75 seconds, 80 yards, no timeouts, a maniacal crowd and frigid temperatures 100% of the time.

If you throw an incompletion and you give them 2 minutes instead of 1:15 then you are even bigger suckers.

Two probowlers who were MIA and an HOF who was getting his ass handed to him all game? I see the point and normally wouldn't disagree, I just think given the game situation that you let Manning and one of the TEs make a play.

[Buff]

Two probowlers who were MIA and an HOF who was getting his ass handed to him all game? I see the point and normally wouldn't disagree, I just think given the game situation that you let Manning and one of the TEs make a play.

Manning was MIA today too Mike. Were you confident in picking up a 3rd and 7 there through the air? I wasn't. I wouldn't have minded trying a pass with Manning either. But if I were the one calling the shots, I would have done the same thing Fox did.

[Poet]

Mike, I don't mean to be sarcastic when I say this, but the same Manning who threw a pick running and across his body?

[aberdien]

Shitty coaching. Shitty defense.

Seriously. For the 58 minutes prior to the 3rd and 7 we know how bad the secondary had been. Congrats to Fox and co. for having faith in that shitty secondary I guess but come on. You look at the situation at hand: Your defense had not been up to par and the defensive backs had blown multiple plays. Championship coaches adjust. We do not have championship coaches. If the defense had held strong the whole game and had not given up big catches then sure, I would be okay with trying to run the clock out. But that was not the case.

I hope McCoy goes to the Chargers or something.

[wayninja]

Shitty coaching. Shitty defense.

Seriously. For the 58 minutes prior to the 3rd and 7 we know how bad the secondary had been. Congrats to Fox and co. for having faith in that shitty secondary I guess but come on. You look at the situation at hand: Your defense had not been up to par and the defensive backs had blown multiple plays. Championship coaches adjust. We do not have championship coaches. If the defense had held strong the whole game and had not given up big catches then sure, I would be okay with trying to run the clock out. But that was not the case.

I hope McCoy goes to the Chargers or something.

I agree, you play the percentages, but you adjust those based on what you've seen. We had been getting torched all day, why did Fox suddenly think we were going to step up?

[Mike]

Manning was MIA today too Mike. Were you confident in picking up a 3rd and 7 there through the air? I wasn't. I wouldn't have minded trying a pass with Manning either. But if I were the one calling the shots, I would have done the same thing Fox did.


Mike, I don't mean to be sarcastic when I say this, but the same Manning who threw a pick running and across his body?

Both good points and hard to argue against. 9 of 10 times I agree with the decision. Tonight I just felt it was the wrong call.

[Buff]

Shitty coaching. Shitty defense.

Seriously. For the 58 minutes prior to the 3rd and 7 we know how bad the secondary had been. Congrats to Fox and co. for having faith in that shitty secondary I guess but come on. You look at the situation at hand: Your defense had not been up to par and the defensive backs had blown multiple plays. Championship coaches adjust. We do not have championship coaches. If the defense had held strong the whole game and had not given up big catches then sure, I would be okay with trying to run the clock out. But that was not the case.

I hope McCoy goes to the Chargers or something.

First of all - I fully believe Fox was responsible for any and all conservative decisions you saw today. Knowing what we know about his philosophy, there is no reason to believe otherwise. So I don't understand why McCoy is becoming the de facto scapegoat.

Secondly - the time on the clock should have made it much easier on our defense to cover the pass during the last drive. They needed 6 - not 3 - so only a deep ball or PI call could really beat us. That's why you don't base your play calling on Champ getting burned throughout the day - because the situation should have translated to an advantage for our defense.

[Dreadnought]

First of all - I fully believe Fox was responsible for any and all conservative decisions you saw today. Knowing what we know about his philosophy, there is no reason to believe otherwise. So I don't understand why McCoy is becoming the de facto scapegoat.

Secondly - the time on the clock should have made it much easier on our defense to cover the pass during the last drive. They needed 6 - not 3 - so only a deep ball or PI call could really beat us. That's why you don't base your play calling on Champ getting burned throughout the day - because the situation should have translated to an advantage for our defense.

And we know Manning has audibled out of 80% of calls anyway, and has full authority to do so - appropriate, too IMO. McCoy got no credit for our offense all year because of it, remember?

[wayninja]

And we know Manning has audibled out of 80% of calls anyway, and has full authority to do so - appropriate, too IMO. McCoy got no credit for our offense all year because of it, remember?

Are you suggesting that a popular player would mindlessly be given the benefit of the doubt in favor of scapegoating a less popular, low hanging fruit?

Absurd!

[aberdien]

First of all - I fully believe Fox was responsible for any and all conservative decisions you saw today. Knowing what we know about his philosophy, there is no reason to believe otherwise. So I don't understand why McCoy is becoming the de facto scapegoat.
Because McCoy is the OC, so we assume he is the one calling the plays. I think Fox and McCoy both suck regardless of who is calling plays. They were together in Carolina so it's safe to assume they both have the same shitty offensive philosophy. I'm perfectly fine with blaming Fox along with McCoy.


Secondly - the time on the clock should have made it much easier on our defense to cover the pass during the last drive. They needed 6 - not 3 - so only a deep ball or PI call could really beat us. That's why you don't base your play calling on Champ getting burned throughout the day - because the situation should have translated to an advantage for our defense.
Given the defensive ineptitude throughout the day, I don't understand how anybody could have trusted them.

[Buff]

Because McCoy is the OC, so we assume he is the one calling the plays. I think Fox and McCoy both suck regardless of who is calling plays. They were together in Carolina so it's safe to assume they both have the same shitty offensive philosophy. I'm perfectly fine with blaming Fox along with McCoy.


Given the defensive ineptitude throughout the day, I don't understand how anybody could have trusted them.

But I didn't trust the offense either. Two of our scores came on special teams today. The offense struggled in the 2nd half. So if you trust neither the offense nor the defense - then I advocate taking the only sure-bet, which was 40 seconds off the clock.

[wayninja]

But I didn't trust the offense either. Two of our scores came on special teams today. The offense struggled in the 2nd half. So if you trust neither the offense nor the defense - then I advocate taking the only sure-bet, which was 40 seconds off the clock.

As shaky as manning was, he still had 3 TD passes... Maybe he was hurt or something though, there was definitely something off...

[aberdien]

But I didn't trust the offense either. Two of our scores came on special teams today. The offense struggled in the 2nd half. So if you trust neither the offense nor the defense - then I advocate taking the only sure-bet, which was 40 seconds off the clock.

Manning wasn't playing bad though. He was getting firstdowns, throwing some good intermediate passes. He was capable. I trust him more than the secondary. Certainly I blame Raheem Moore more than the coaching, but I think if you want to win a championship, you gotta have the balls to call a pass play on 3rd and 7 in an ATTEMPT to get a first down that would effectively win the game when considering the circumstances.

[Hawgdriver]

I think you go with the percentages. . .

Beer with me, as this is pure cockameme.

Percentage of getting 1st down on 3d and 7 throwing: 50% (beer with me) = win game

Percentage of getting 1st down on 3d and 7 running up the middle: 0%

Percentage that Ravens tie the game from Broncos 20 yard-line with no time-outs and 7 points needed with 1:50 on the clock: 40% (?)

Percentage that Ravens tie the game from Broncos 20 yard-line with no time-outs and 7 points needed with 1:20 on the clock: 30% (?)

So, Plan A: pass on 3d & 7. 50% of winning outright, 50% chance of punting to Ravens, who tie the game 40% of the time, that is,

20% Ravens tie, 80% Broncos win

Plan B: run on 3d & 7. 0% of winning outright, 100% chance of punting to Ravens, who tie the game 30% of the time, that is,

30% Ravens tie, 70% Broncos win

Only if the extra 30 seconds made it way harder, like dropped from 40% to 20% of scoring a touchdown harder, does it make sense.

I don't know. My gut tells me that this was a case of history favoring the aggressor.

[Buff]

Manning wasn't playing bad though. He was getting firstdowns, throwing some good intermediate passes. He was capable. I trust him more than the secondary. Certainly I blame Raheem Moore more than the coaching, but I think if you want to win a championship, you gotta have the balls to call a pass play on 3rd and 7 in an ATTEMPT to get a first down that would effectively win the game when considering the circumstances.

I would have been fine with putting it in Manning's hands too, don't get me wrong. I just don't think it was the optimal coaching decision given all of the variables and the circumstances. I understand where you are coming from - it's a rational argument - but I think our defense holds them out of the endzone 80-90% of the time.

[aberdien]

I think everything sucks and I am sad.

[Buff]

Beer with me, as this is pure cockameme.

Percentage of getting 1st down on 3d and 7 throwing: 50% (beer with me) = win game

Percentage of getting 1st down on 3d and 7 running up the middle: 0%

Percentage that Ravens tie the game from Broncos 20 yard-line with no time-outs and 7 points needed with 1:50 on the clock: 40% (?)

Percentage that Ravens tie the game from Broncos 20 yard-line with no time-outs and 7 points needed with 1:20 on the clock: 30% (?)

So, Plan A: pass on 3d & 7. 50% of winning outright, 50% chance of punting to Ravens, who tie the game 40% of the time, that is,

20% Ravens tie, 80% Broncos win

Plan B: run on 3d & 7. 0% of winning outright, 100% chance of punting to Ravens, who tie the game 30% of the time, that is,

30% Ravens tie, 70% Broncos win

Only if the extra 30 seconds made it way harder, like dropped from 40% to 20% of scoring a touchdown harder, does it make sense.

I don't know. My gut tells me that this was a case of history favoring the aggressor.

I see it a little differently:

Chances of converting 3rd and 7 throwing - 40%

Chances of converting 3rd and 7 running - 15%

Percentage that they tie with 1:50 on the clock: 30%

Percentage that they tie with 1:15 on the clock: 10%

I actually believe the 40 seconds were a huge factor, and only an unforgivable mental lapse by an inexperienced player rendered the time insignificant.

[Hawgdriver]

I see it a little differently

I get it. I don't disagree. It's not like anyone has a solutions manual with the #'s. Any other day, your D wins the game for you. For me, it was like missing the easy chance to bluff in poker, and you lose because you don't have that edge. Just a gut thing, at the end of it all. I don't disagree with your numbers, and it's be nice to know from Elias or STATS what these things really look like.

Either way, it's all hindsight. Which is kind of where we are at, now.

[wayninja]

If I flip a coin 5 times and the first 4 come up tails, even though I consciously know that it's still a 50/50 shot, my gut tells me that I shouldn't really bet on Heads.

That seems to be what Fox did, at a very simplified level.

[dunk7]

I see it a little differently:

Chances of converting 3rd and 7 throwing - 40%

Chances of converting 3rd and 7 running - 15%

Percentage that they tie with 1:50 on the clock: 30%

Percentage that they tie with 1:15 on the clock: 10%

I actually believe the 40 seconds were a huge factor, and only an unforgivable mental lapse by an inexperienced player rendered the time insignificant.

You are missing a few key points in your percentages...

First off, the Percent of completing the pass on 3rd down (60 to 70%)...even if he throws a completion, it achieves the same result of the run play.
Second, percent the defence was expecting a pass vs. a run. When the defence isn't expecting a play, its safe to assume the success rate increases and vice versa. The Ravens knew that McCoy and Fox were going ULTRA conservative so I think the chance of converting 3rd and 7 was probably less that 5%.

I think I was more choked than anything because we ran on 3rd and multiple years at least 3 times during the game. That might work against lesser teams during the regular season but that obviously doesn't work in the playoffs.

[Buff]

If I flip a coin 5 times and the first 4 come up tails, even though I consciously know that it's still a 50/50 shot, my gut tells me that I shouldn't really bet on Heads.

That seems to be what Fox did, at a very simplified level.

Great analogy, but I see it from exactly the opposite end. I think Fox played the correct percentages and you guys are focused on the results.

Hawgdriver used the poker analogy. If you get it all in with the best hand from an equity standpoint but get sucked out on the river, you still made the right move, you just were a victim of bad luck. That's how I see the 3rd and 7 decision. Fox is going to be right the majority of the time with a punt because you've got to believe the Ravens are going to drive down and score less than 50% of the time - but this time the Ravens were able to hit on their long odds.

[bcbronc]

Being in a cover 2 at that point of the game was a way worse decision than running on 3rd and 7 imo. Del Rio deserves some blame for this loss as well.

[Dzone]

They ran the 190 pound Hillman up the gut on every play.Why the hell couldnt they try and pop him outside? smh

[zbeg]

Great analogy, but I see it from exactly the opposite end. I think Fox played the correct percentages and you guys are focused on the results.

Hawgdriver used the poker analogy. If you get it all in with the best hand from an equity standpoint but get sucked out on the river, you still made the right move, you just were a victim of bad luck. That's how I see the 3rd and 7 decision. Fox is going to be right the majority of the time with a punt because you've got to believe the Ravens are going to drive down and score less than 50% of the time - but this time the Ravens were able to hit on their long odds.

High-fiving this because you used the phrase "get it all in with the best hand from an equity standpoint."

<3

That's about all the cheer I can muster up right now. The kneeldowns are what kill me. I just don't see how that has a higher expectation than passing the ball. I understand there's some risk incurred there, but it has to be lower than the chance of outright winning via a FG attempt, no?

[tomjonesrocks]

Great analogy, but I see it from exactly the opposite end. I think Fox played the correct percentages and you guys are focused on the results.

Hawgdriver used the poker analogy. If you get it all in with the best hand from an equity standpoint but get sucked out on the river, you still made the right move, you just were a victim of bad luck. That's how I see the 3rd and 7 decision. Fox is going to be right the majority of the time with a punt because you've got to believe the Ravens are going to drive down and score less than 50% of the time - but this time the Ravens were able to hit on their long odds.

High-fiving this because you used the phrase "get it all in with the best hand from an equity standpoint."

<3

That's about all the cheer I can muster up right now. The kneeldowns are what kill me. I just don't see how that has a higher expectation than passing the ball. I understand there's some risk incurred there, but it has to be lower than the chance of outright winning via a FG attempt, no?

Manning obviously couldn't get the ball downfield in big chunks today for whatever reason. I see the 3rd and 7 as unforgivable as I think Manning makes that play, but the kneel down with 30 seconds not so much. He wasn't going to complete a couple 25-yard outs at that moment that he couldn't complete all game.

Denver got the ball back in OT and had chances to drive. Manning just could not get it done. He was finished after the Moore **** up.

[zbeg]

Manning obviously couldn't get the ball downfield in big chunks today for whatever reason. I see the 3rd and 7 as unforgivable, but the kneel not so much. Denver got the ball back in OT and had chances. Manning just could not get it done. He was finished after the Moore **** up.

Weird. I see it the other way. 3rd and 7 is fine as long as your secondary decides to treat the 25 yard line like the endzone.

The Moreno injury was the secret killer because Baltimore was blitzing with impunity knowing that Hillman/Hester were struggling in blitz pickups and Manning had no time in the pocket. Once that happened, the offense really took a huge step back IMO.

Hillman's a rookie; it takes a while to get the pass protection stuff down, but man it sucks to have only two running backs who could do it effectively, and it sucks even more that they were both hurt for this game.

[tomjonesrocks]

I care minimally at this moment, but speaking of that, did china doll Moreno rip his ACL up again or what?

[zbeg]

I care minimally at this moment, but speaking of that, did china doll Moreno rip his ACL up again or what?

I never heard any specifics about this. It must have gotten lost in all the other, larger picture stuff.

[tomjonesrocks]

I care minimally at this moment, but speaking of that, did china doll Moreno rip his ACL up again or what?

I never heard any specifics about this. It must have gotten lost in all the other, larger picture stuff.

Good old Moreno. He finally redeems himself and his other huge deficiency pops up--his total lack of durability.

[Slick]

Add Content

[Poet]

Great post, slick!

[nyuk nyuk]

Why did we run?

Undue trust in the defense?

[Dean]

I see the loss as being squarely on the shoulders of Rahim Moore.

However, I personally would have called a play action pass on third down with instructions to Manning to take the sack if the receiver was not wide open in order to keep the clock running. Manning's decision making is more than competence enough to depend upon [we have ridden with it all season]. This allows a much better likelihood of picking up the first while keeping the clock running if the play is not there.

As I stated, had Moore not committed the unforgivable sin of allowing a receiver deeper than himself we would be game planning for the AFCCG right now.

[MasterShake]

I agree with what most are saying. It was the right call to burn off the clock and gave you the least possible chance of a turnover. The Moore mishap on the TD cost us more than anything.

[Krugan]

So much finger pointing, It wasnt only moore on that tying play.

You live by the pass you die by the pass, and the ultra conservative call to run 3 plays in a row was outlandish at best.

Also, the defense wasnt nearly deep enough on the final play, the WHOLE defense. Although Moore misplayed the ball, it had happened all game long, Champ beat by smith, blah blah.

Frankly, 35 seconds left, 3rd and 3, bring 6, force the short play, 15 yards doesnt kill you, 30 yards doesnt kill you, shoot 50 would have made it intersting but by the time everyone lined up, theres one play left.

It was a poor defensive choice in the final plays, falls on lots of laps, not just a simple finger point.

[BroncoJoe]

Wasn't thrilled with the 3rd and 7 call, but you can argue that either way.

It's not debatable is how in the hell do you let a receiver behind you on that TD? Unbelievable.

[wayninja]

I doesn't help that Prater tried to kick the entire field into the uprights on what would have effectively put us up by 10 points with 1:31 to go.

[Mike]

I doesn't help that Prater tried to kick the entire field into the uprights on what would have effectively put us up by 10 points with 1:31 to go.

Wrong call given the weather and Prater's struggles. Fox should have punted and made Balt drive the entire field.

[Buff]

Wrong call given the weather and Prater's struggles. Fox should have punted and made Balt drive the entire field.

I think the decision was either go for it or kick a FG. I don't see much value in punting from the other team's 35 yard line.

[BroncoJoe]

I think the decision was either go for it or kick a FG. I don't see much value in punting from the other team's 35 yard line.

Because there isn't.

[Mike]

I think the decision was either go for it or kick a FG. I don't see much value in punting from the other team's 35 yard line.

Pinning them inside the 10 and making them drive the field is valuable. Giving them half the field...not so much.

[Simple Jaded]

I thought Praters FG was much earlier than 1:30 to go. Besides, even in that weather Prater is a better gamble from 52 than 40-50. He screwed the pooch.......

[wayninja]

Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that Prater has missed a field goal anywhere near 1:31 to go, I'm simply saying his missed FG earlier in the game (Q2 I believe) would have made that last Touchdown a 10 point game.

[VonMiller58]

I didn't mind this play call as much as some other people do. Giving Flacco the game with no timeouts, 80 yards to go, and just over a minute left on the road is not usually a bad strategy.

The fact is that Rahim Moore cost us the game at the 4th quarter. While I blame him, that wasn't the only stinker. Bailey stunk, Prater's missed FG was huge, and other guys just didn't execute when it mattered. 3rd and 13 had them backed up and let the TE catch a ball. Let Boldin wide open, etc etc. It's all about execution, and they couldn't do it.

No it's not a bad strategy but when Torey Smith burnt Champ Bailey 2 times one for a TD and one that could've easily have been one seeing as Torey Smith was basically alone in the back field because Champ couldn't keep up.. I don't like it. Oh ya, I just remembered he scored 2 TDs on us while Champ was covering him. The deep ball was our WORST enemy last night, I just don't understand why you'd force them to go deep on us when they've proven they can do it. Go big or go home, but water under the bridge now. I just remember saying to myself when it was 2nd and 8 or whatever, just throw the ball, all we need is a first down.

[chaoticmayhem]

look at that..3rd and 2..4 minutes left in the game..up 10 on the Texans...already in field goal range...do they run for it and hope to pick up the first if not kick a field goal? HELL NO! They pass for the 1st!!! Watching this just puts everything into perspective and how much coaching matters. In fact, it matters more than having star players.

Perfect example of the contrast in playing to win as opposed to playing not to lose.

[SR]

look at that..3rd and 2..4 minutes left in the game..up 10 on the Texans...already in field goal range...do they run for it and hope to pick up the first if not kick a field goal? HELL NO! They pass for the 1st!!! Watching this just puts everything into perspective and how much coaching matters. In fact, it matters more than having star players.

A bad coach with good players can look like a great coach. A great coach with bad players can look like a horrible coach.

[wayninja]

look at that..3rd and 2..4 minutes left in the game..up 10 on the Texans...already in field goal range...do they run for it and hope to pick up the first if not kick a field goal? HELL NO! They pass for the 1st!!! Watching this just puts everything into perspective and how much coaching matters. In fact, it matters more than having star players.

Perfect example of playing to win and playing not to lose.

Except Manning said that running on 3rd and 7 was his call.

[DenBronx]

The Pats play to win....I hate to give them any props but they play to put people away and I respect that about their coach. The great teams develop killer insticts and a selfishness to win it all. Our coaches have to play this way.

[chaoticmayhem]

The Pats play to win....I hate to give them any props but they play to put people away and I respect that about their coach. The great teams develop killer insticts and a selfishness to win it all. Our coaches have to play this way.

Yep. I hate the Pats but have to give them credit for having the killer instinct.

[lgenf]

it was actually being reported today on Mike and Mike that there was a pass play called and Manning checked out of it to the run play.

[bcbronc]

"What do you mean, 'checked out of'? And which way do I run on a pass play?" --Timmy Tebow

[Joel]

Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that Prater has missed a field goal anywhere near 1:31 to go, I'm simply saying his missed FG earlier in the game (Q2 I believe) would have made that last Touchdown a 10 point game.
Yeah, it was with 1:30 left in the FIRST half, and, yet again, it only took the Ravens second rate QB a 2-3 plays to throw a TD bomb to one of his second rate receivers. If the secondary showed up Sunday we would've have been up either 24-14 or 21-14 at the half, depending on whether Prater hits the kick; instead they allowed Hail Mary TDs at the end of BOTH halves that put the game into OT. That should never happen in a playoff game, but after watching our defense allow it not once, but TWICE, I can understand why people think we should've tried Hail Marys of our won in the last half minute of both halves.

We blew it on both sides of the ball; our D gave up TD bombs all day long, and our whole offense was useless after Moreno got hurt. Our unstoppable offense only managed ONE TD in the entire second half and a full quarter of OT. The folks insisting we should've tried a pass on 3rd and 7 at the 2:00 warning should count up how many times we punted in the second half. It still wouldn't have mattered if our secondary could have handled something as basic as "don't give up 70 yard TD passes in the final 30 seconds of a half." That's pretty much a safetys ENTIRE JOB; if ours can't do it, we should find some who can.

Geez, 7 pages on a textbook 3rd and 7 run with 2:00 play and other team down by a TD with no TOs. If we can't stop them going 80 yds for a TD in 30 seconds TWICE, what we call on 3rd and 7 doesn't matter.