Streaks, Luck, Momentum and the History of 13-3 Broncos Teams

[Joel]

In 52 years of Denver Broncos football, how have we fared when 13-3?

1984: Lost 24-17 to the Steelers at Mile High
1996: Lost 30-27 to the Jaguars at Mile High
2005: Beat the Cheatriots 13-27 at Mile High; lost the AFC Championship to the Steelers 34-17 at Mile High.

The Jaguars didn't even EXIST two years before facing the #1 seed on the road in the Divisional Round, but a vastly overconfident team translated "homefield advantage throughout the playoffs" into "automatic Super Bowl berth," only to find there is no such thing as the latter.

2005 was arguably worse. Our only TDs vs. New England were both 1st and G runs immediately after 1) a phantom PI on Asante Samuel covering Ashley Lelie in the endzone and 2) Champs 100 yard Int return. The latter was a 14 point play by itself (i.e. our victory margin;) our OFFENSE only managed a pair of field goals in our own house, while our D surrendered just as many—plus a decisive TD.

Yet we won, and the upstart Steelers upSET Manning the same weekend (among Peytons many One and Done playoff "runs,") leading many (including me) to think we'd cruise to a third Super Bowl win against whatever sacrificial lamb the NFC offered for the slaughter. Then our Pro Bowl QB, who'd only thrown 6 picks all SEASON, threw 2 AND lost 2 fumbles in one GAME. We weren't just beaten: We were EMBARRASSED on national television in the first (and still only) AFCCG loss at Mile High.

None of these reminders are meant to predict apocalypse , but rather provide perspective. Even without the Jags (or Pats, who beat them) the '96 Pack might've been too much for us; they were much better on both sides of the ball than when they tried to defend that championship the following year. However, that didn't stop reports out of the '97 Packers training camp that players were already predicting a 16-0 perfect season and championship repeat. With a little less arrogance and a little more professionalism they might have accomplished at least the latter, instead of giving the NFC its first Super Bowl loss in thirteen years.

Everyone who thinks triskadekaphobia caused Denvers first Super Bowl win, raise your hand. Everyone who thinks it was our talent, skill and dedication (and perhaps some of their overconfidence) raise YOUR hand. Hmm, the consensus seems to be unanimous; go figure.... :tongue:

We have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, but that's not worth nearly as much in the NFL as in the NBA. Since the final weeks of the regular season, a number of people have acted like homefield advantage assured us a trip to the Super Bowl, but history doesn't support that view. When The Hidden Game of Football was released a generation ago, the authors found that, statistically, Mile High Stadium had the highest homefield advantage of any NFL venue: ~2.3 points/game. If an opponent offers you a field goal in exchange for homefield, you should call your travel agent. ;)

To be completely candid, I don't think a Ravens team we crushed on the road a month ago has much chance at Mile High; I just wish we'd all wait until AFTER we win the Super Bowl before bragging about it. We've come a long way from the team that had the #2 overall pick a couple years ago, and have earned a moments pause to reflect on that with a ssense of satisfaction and accomplishment.

However, we aren't nearly as invincible as so many seem to think. The Falcons and Cheatriots would certainly agree, as would the Texans if their starting secondary and linebacking corps were healthy. Even if we beat the Ravens again (which I expect we will) there will still be two games left before we can celebrate a championship rather than just a return to respectability. If we dislocate our shoulders loudly patting ourselves on the back yet come up short, let alone lose a playoff game badly, we won't even have the respectability, just public humiliation.

I only hope the Denver Broncos spent their bye week watching tape and practicing, ignoring fans crowning them world champions before they've even had a playoff game. Right now we have far more in common with the 13-3 '84 Broncos (who won just 2 games in '82) than with the 12-4 '97 Broncos (who played all but their wildcard game on the road, yet won our first Super Bowl.) The only thing certain about streaks (e.g. the NFC 12 game SB win streak in '97) is their end; the only certainty in momentum, its eventual change. Games are won by pre-game preparation and onfield performance, not voodoo dolls and braggadocio.

Go, Broncos; Go, America.:salute:

[Northman]

Hate to break it too ya but no team in the NFL is invincible even the Patriots and Falcons. Denver has a good shot as any to win it this year.

[Nomad]

Joel, do you do a lot of research or just have a good memory? I like you, you make me look like an eternal optimist:lol: j/k

BTW, do you miss hotcarl? I thought that was the funniest thing when he did the Hitler thing on you.

[Chef Zambini]

joel, dont be a debbie downer.
and not every fan is a ply-anna!
your last line about preparation and ignoring the hype has been the bronco M.O. all season long !
PFM has kept this team focused.
JFE, fox, JDR, they have the experience and leadership to keep our players focused too !
I have no doubt our guys will show up with the right atitude, not the lame walk in the park mentality displayed by so many who post in our favorite forum.

[Joel]

Hate to break it too ya but no team in the NFL is invincible even the Patriots and Falcons. Denver has a good shot as any to win it this year.
No argument there; New Englands D is awful, and I'm not convinced Atlantas is much better. Offenses good enough to consistently open 20 point leads force opponents to pass until they catch up, making defense much simpler without making it any BETTER. It speaks well of our offense, and poorly of their defenses, that we transformed blowouts against NE, Houston and Atlanta into less embarrassing losses.

I agree Denver's the team to beat, though I'd feel better if we'd DELIVERED more than a few blowouts (mostly against awful teams like Cleveland and KC.) New England looks like the only real pre-Super Bowl challenge; it could come down to how well their offense plays on the road and/or whether our offense can keep pace in a slugfest. If we get past the Ravens and NE we may get to show the world how good Atlantas D is/n't. But all this crowing about a championship we haven't won, when we haven't even had a playoff game, makes me nervous. "Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit cometh before a fall."

Either way, streaks, momentum and all the other superstitions are meaningless distractions. They're a luxury we can afford as fans, provided we don't mind risking the team leaving us with redfaces later when we encounter the friends, neighbors and coworkers to whom we previously loudly boasted, but I hope the coaches and players keep their eyes on the ball, else they will surely embarrass themselves and us.


Joel, do you do a lot of research or just have a good memory? I like you, you make me look like an eternal optimist:lol: j/k
Little of both; the internet has made research much easier, and Pro Football Reference is heaven sent for this topic. I couldn't remember how many plays it took us to score after Champs 14 yard play in '05, but PFR has the play-by-play of the whole game, so it was quick and easy to check.

To the rest, I try to hope for the best and plan for the worst; "that way all your surprises will be pleasant ones." I expected the worst of Tebow last year, so winning the division and a playoff game was gravy. :)


BTW, do you miss hotcarl? I thought that was the funniest thing when he did the Hitler thing on you.
Miss him? Has he been banned again? I've spent most of this week ankle-deep (when I was luckky) in freezing mud/water, so have missed a few things. The Hitler thing was pretty funny, I'll give him that, though I think I did a good job of turning it around on him the other day.


joel, dont be a debbie downer.
and not every fan is a ply-anna!
your last line about preparation and ignoring the hype has been the bronco M.O. all season long !
PFM has kept this team focused.
JFE, fox, JDR, they have the experience and leadership to keep our players focused too !
I have no doubt our guys will show up with the right atitude, not the lame walk in the park mentality displayed by so many who post in our favorite forum.
Not every fan is Pollyanna, but it sure seems like 90% of them are most of the time. Some of these jokers were just as certain we were inevitable world champions when we were 2-3; they'll be insufferable if eventually proven right, though that's a price I'm more than willing to pay. With all the ultimately pointless talk of streaks, momentum, luck and superstition, combined with the loud boasting, I've been thinking about this stuff for a while, and it's reached the point that, quite frankly, I felt obligated to post BEFORE todays game just so I couldn't be accused of piling on and/or only showing up to say, "I told you so," if the Ravens pull off an upset.

Like I said, I HOPE the players and coaches are ignoring the mountain of fan and pundit commentary, because this has all the makings of a classic "trap game" just in time for the playoffs. I think peaking at the right time IS a big postseason factor, and we may have done so (though if so this has been a rather extended three month peak.) But all the boasting and superstitution is just asking for trouble.

[Chef Zambini]

joel, I dont think you have anything to worry about when it comes to the broncos focus and shutting out all the hype , bravado and crap.

[zbeg]

Denver's 13-3 in home playoff games, too. It's a secret extra 13-3 season! What does that mean?

Nothing. Absolutely nothing.

[SR]

Denver's 13-3 in home playoff games, too. It's a secret extra 13-3 season! What does that mean?

Nothing. Absolutely nothing.

Figures you'd pipe in something like that

[Nomad]

Joel....what cha doing in freezing mud and water?

[zbeg]

Figures you'd pipe in something like that

I'm a great source of hidden and ultimately useless information.

[SR]

I'm a great source of hidden and ultimately useless information.

Hah...too funny

[Ravage!!!]

Shocked to see Joel want to try and put a downer on everything. He's still mourning the loss of our previous QB.

[Joel]

joel, I dont think you have anything to worry about when it comes to the broncos focus and shutting out all the hype , bravado and crap.
Guess we'll know in a few hours; last time we played Baltimore we were up by 4 TDs at the start of the 4th quarter—ON THE ROAD! If we're taking care of our business we SHOULD plow through the Ravens without even slowing, but since the latter is not a given neither is the former. Either way, just reaching the Super Bowl will require getting bast one of two teams that beat us badly at the start of the year, and winning it will probably require beating the other team that humiliated us (AND Peyton) in the regular season.


Denver's 13-3 in home playoff games, too. It's a secret extra 13-3 season! What does that mean?

Nothing. Absolutely nothing.
Yes, but ALL our home playoff losses were after 13-3 regular seasons. Wrap your head around THAT one.:scared:


Joel....what cha doing in freezing mud and water?
Helping build this: http://www.ngi.no/en/About-NGI/VP09/geoscience-activity/The-Strindheim-tunnel/ Specifically, I'm compressing dirt dumped a foot deep at a time. Working in a section nearly 100 yards long, with distances spray painted on both sides at 10 yard intervals and perpendicular pipes making it look like a gridiron, is eerily familiar. :tongue: But I don't think about that much when it drizzles for over a week straight and I sink to my ankles (or knees) at each step, or when the temperature nears 0° and even excavators can't pentrate the ground. Doing that 60 hours/week leaves little time or energy to talk football. :( But it's work, and lots of OT.

[Joel]

Shocked to see Joel want to try and put a downer on everything. He's still mourning the loss of our previous QB.
I still think last years .500 team needed more than Joe Montana ca. '94 and a half dozen journeyman FAs to win a title, but nothing would please me more than being wrong. We'll know in a few weeks whether I am.

Either way, our $20 million man will be 37 next year; we don't have a lot of time to get this right before we're back to having NOTHING under center and hoping the other 52 guys are good enough it doesn't matter. We still need a Mike, still need a NT, still need a G and will probably need a C about the time we need a QB (if we're lucky.) I'd rather have spent the $20 mill on guys to fill those vital roles for the next 5-7 years than a guy to fill the QB role for 2-3. The die was long ago cast though, so we go to war with the army we have and don't talk about WHY we have that particular army.

[Timmy!]

:opisactuallytexansfan:

[Ravage!!!]

I still think last years .500 team needed more than Joe Montana ca. '94 and a half dozen journeyman FAs to win a title, but nothing would please me more than being wrong. We'll know in a few weeks whether I am.

Either way, our $20 million man will be 37 next year; we don't have a lot of time to get this right before we're back to having NOTHING under center and hoping the other 52 guys are good enough it doesn't matter. We still need a Mike, still need a NT, still need a G and will probably need a C about the time we need a QB (if we're lucky.) I'd rather have spent the $20 mill on guys to fill those vital roles for the next 5-7 years than a guy to fill the QB role for 2-3. The die was long ago cast though, so we go to war with the army we have and don't talk about WHY we have that particular army.

yes yes.. you kept saying this over and over. I'm just glad you have been proved wrong, and we can see just how good this team is when moving forward with a real QB. Good to be a Broncos fan.

[Joel]

:opisactuallytexansfan:
Duh; what's your point? Half the Texans roster AND coaching staff are former Broncos (and that's only a slight exaggeration,) so it's hardly a stretch. I'm also a Cowboys and Vikings fan; unless one of those teams is playing the other it doesn't matter. I want the AFCCG game to be Houston vs. Denver, and the NFCCG to be Dallas vs. Minnesota, because that's the farthest all four teams can go without one being eliminated.

The Cowboys are hopeless as long as Romo's under center (probably as long as Jerry's the owner) and the Vikings had to ride Adrian Peterson for all he's worth just to reach the playoffs so the Pack could beat them again, but a Denver/Houston AFCCG looked likely as recently as two weeks ago. With my fellow Houstonians denied a bye so their battered secondary and LBs could get healthy, and forced to play all their games near or below freezing (something no Gulf Coast native likes,) Denver is my last best hope to see a team I like, and prevent a team I loathe (e.g. GB, SF, NE or Baltimore,) win a Super Bowl.

I've promised my friends and neighbors a Super Bowl party if Houston OR Denver gets that far, but Denver is the only team I expect to make me honor my word. I just hope the team isn't as arrogant about these next two games as so many fans are. A little humility would be nice, and warranted in a fanbase whose last winning season was 2006, because the people we're gloating at will remember, win or lose.


yes yes.. you kept saying this over and over. I'm just glad you have been proved wrong, and we can see just how good this team is when moving forward with a real QB. Good to be a Broncos fan.
Um, we haven't even won a playoff game yet: The proof is in the pudding, and it's still on the stove.

[Nomad]

What's your occupation, Joel? And why Norway?

[NightTrainLayne]

What's your occupation, Joel? And why Norway?

I think he chased a female member of the species over there.

[Ravage!!!]

Um, we haven't even won a playoff game yet: The proof is in the pudding, and it's still on the stove.

Actually, we've "won" with our bye week, thus already moving forward into the playoff race as far as last season.

I'm sure you will say that only a Super Bowl victory will justify having Manning here, but I think its pretty clear that is a pretty ridiculous stance. You have been proved wrong, as this team is already SOOOOO much better than last year. Yet, did we REALLY add as many players as you claimed we "needed" to have in order to do it? No.

The proof has been on the field ALllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll season long. I'm sorry you've missed it.

[Hawgdriver]

None of these reminders are meant to predict apocalypse , , ,

Awwww. :shuffles feet:

No zombies?

[Joel]

What's your occupation, Joel? And why Norway?
At the moment, I believe it's "press driver," and NTL is quite right about why I'm doing it here.

[Joel]

Actually, we've "won" with our bye week, thus already moving forward into the playoff race as far as last season.

I'm sure you will say that only a Super Bowl victory will justify having Manning here, but I think its pretty clear that is a pretty ridiculous stance. You have been proved wrong, as this team is already SOOOOO much better than last year. Yet, did we REALLY add as many players as you claimed we "needed" to have in order to do it? No.

The proof has been on the field ALllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll season long. I'm sorry you've missed it.
Yes, we've made it exactly as far as we did last year with that QB most people thought (and still think) inadequate to even ride the bench behind a backup. Many of those critiques were fair, though others were not, but if anyone who thought the team hopeless with that QB can't be satisfied with accomplishing just as much, but no more, with a first ballot HoFer under center. That's a LOT of effort to gain nothing, so nothing less than a Super Bowl appearance would justify it. And in a year or two, where will our first ballot HoFer be...?


Awwww. :shuffles feet:

No zombies?
I didn't say that; look around this place a bit. :tongue:

[Ravage!!!]

Don't minimize the results in how we got here. You can't look at the finish line and say "yep, both got here" as if the journey didn't take completely different routes. That different journey is a HUGE difference, and its a shame you haven't allowed yourself to enjoy it because you spend so much time mourning the loss of NY's backup QB.

In a year or two, Manning will still be wearing orange and blue, and the team will be better with him here. While he's here, we'll continue to be considered to be contenders, and favorites, while playing at a level compared to the tops in the NFL instead of floundering at the bottom and needing other teams to lose in order to be considered for the post season.

[Nomad]

Joel...you were right about 13-3:tsk: Hopefully next year is better

[Simple Jaded]

All last year the big rally cry was "I'm just glad to be winning", this year four losses will mean more than the 13 wins.......

[OrangeHoof]

I think we played above our heads this year and finally came back to earth today. Remember the Manning bandwagon was going to arrive in Year 2 or Year 3 not the first year although it sucks to throw away home field when you have it. At least we now know where the holes are we need to fill to be even better next year.

[Joel]

There's no prize for second place, Rav (actually, there is in the NFL, but we don't even get a chance to play for that one either.) If losing in the divisional round is good enough, we did that with our last QB, without spending $20 million desperately needed to pick up a top rate guard like Eric Winston or MLB like Vilma. Some folks thought it a first ballot Hall of Fame QB the panacea to make an 8-8 team champions; now that said QB has thrown a pick that sent Joe freakin' FLACCO to his second straight AFCCG, does that still sound plausible?


All last year the big rally cry was "I'm just glad to be winning", this year four losses will mean more than the 13 wins.......
Last year the rallying cry was a division championship and a playoff victory that set the stage for greater things as our young offensive players improved. This year we couldn't even manage THAT much, but our QB is a decade older and $20 million more expensive: He'll NEVER be any better, and just threw away our only playoff game, at home, in a manner only Plummer could surpass. Supposedly our last QB was such a bum and our current one such a stud that last years division champs were now unbeatable; turns out that wasn't true. And all the people who've spent the past two weeks making room on our mantle for another Lombardi will be ducking their friends and relatives for the next year.

We can keep debating this as long as both sides are willing, but for my money, if not Pat Bowlens, the Broncos halfway resolved the debate on their own turf tonight. Give Manning one more year, and if we aren't at least in a Conference Championship I bet he hangs it up while he's still fairly healthy. Anyone who questions why he would do that should watch the tape of the Texans last game, where Earl Campbell was introduced to the crowd before the game, supported by a walker, as commentators expressed happiness to see he was out of the wheelchair to which he'd been confined for most of the past two years. It's just not worth it to keep doing that to your body just so you can watch opponents play in Conference Championships and Super Bowls while you wait to see whom you'll pick 20th in next years draft.

Think it's time for another sabbatical; the games fallout will be plenty grim and likely last well until the start of next season or longer; dissecting and disputing all the rationalizations for our 0fer playoff "run" would hold little appeal even if I thought it had any point, which I don't. Nice regular season, guys; hopefully next years gets a postseason to match, because Peyton and Champs clocks (among others) are ticking....

[Joel]

I think we played above our heads this year and finally came back to earth today. Remember the Manning bandwagon was going to arrive in Year 2 or Year 3 not the first year although it sucks to throw away home field when you have it. At least we now know where the holes are we need to fill to be even better next year.
C'mon, man, we've known where those holes were for the past 2-3 years; in the case of MLB we've known since Al Wilson retired. We just went all in on a QB instead, and are likely to do it again in a year or two when the current one retires. That's the kind of Madden NFL thinking of perennial losers. Remember when the Raiders spent the #1 overall pick on Jamarcus Russell so he'd save their franchise? A couple years later, when he couldn't, they made a big trade so Carson Palmer would do the same thing; they're still a 4 win cellar team. With that kind of "logic" they always will be. Cleveland, Detroit? Same story, different names.

[Simple Jaded]

Joel, I got a far as you whining about the age and salary of the Broncos starting QB before I gave up on your worn out agenda again. You're a bitter Tebow fan, get over it already.......

[SM19]

Joel, come on. We've gone from a team that fluked its way into an eight-win year and a charity playoff spot to a team that won thirteen in pretty authoritative fashion, and you want to tell us that a one-game sample shows us we're worse off? We were a 49:1 bet to win when we handed the ball back to the Ravens with a minute to play. Only an unfathomably, unforeseeably bad play by Rahim Moore kept us from winning between that point and regulation. This team is so dramatically better, and will be again next year, that I can't believe there's still even a sliver of doubt that we did the right thing by signing Manning.

[Simple Jaded]

Joel, come on. We've gone from a team that fluked its way into an eight-win year and a charity playoff spot to a team that won thirteen in pretty authoritative fashion, and you want to tell us that a one-game sample shows us we're worse off? We were a 49:1 bet to win when we handed the ball back to the Ravens with a minute to play. Only an unfathomably, unforeseeably bad play by Rahim Moore kept us from winning between that point and regulation. This team is so dramatically better, and will be again next year, that I can't believe there's still even a sliver of doubt that we did the right thing by signing Manning.

Well when it comes to Tebowmania a "sliver" always amounts to a ginormous exaggeration. Tebow completes two passes and he's a god, Manning throws one bad pass and he's a waste of $95 million.......

[Joel]

Joel, come on. We've gone from a team that fluked its way into an eight-win year and a charity playoff spot to a team that won thirteen in pretty authoritative fashion, and you want to tell us that a one-game sample shows us we're worse off? We were a 49:1 bet to win when we handed the ball back to the Ravens with a minute to play. Only an unfathomably, unforeseeably bad play by Rahim Moore kept us from winning between that point and regulation. This team is so dramatically better, and will be again next year, that I can't believe there's still even a sliver of doubt that we did the right thing by signing Manning.
Why is it so "unfathomabl[e], unforeseeabl[e]" that our mediocre (at best) second year FS would blow a deep coverage? Hell, in that game, why is it so inconceivable our WHOLE SECONDARY would? They did precisely the same thing in the final seconds of the FIRST half after Praters missed FG, and that cost us the game as surely as the (other) TD bomb they gave away at the end of regulation.

Why did everyone think we're suddenly 5 games better than the team that "fluked" its way into last years division championship (though, if it happens two or three times it might be a fluke; 7-4 plus a playoff win against a 12-4 team isn't a fluke)? Yeah, OK, 13-3—but we only beat a total of TWO winning teams, and the Ravens were playing on crutches for one of those. Otherwise, we got pounded by three playoff teams then beat a bunch of awful teams plus a handful of below average ones. Last years team had a crapton of problems; we fixed a few, but there are still plenty. The one I thought we'd actually solved was the secondary, but then a second rate QB and second rate receivers lit us up for TD bomb after TD bomb when it was 8° in our own house.

Jaded: Seriously, you talk about He Who Must Not Be Named incessantly around me, and I barely mention him (since he's no longer on the team.) Who's really personally fixated here, man? ;)

[Northman]

Lmao,

I knew it wouldnt be long before Joel brought up the Tebow factor. He's been just like every other fanboi and been pissed ever since Tebow was traded.

[TXBRONC]

Lmao,

I knew it wouldnt be long before Joel brought up the Tebow factor. He's been just like every other fanboi and been pissed ever since Tebow was traded.

That's a mainstay of his fixed agenda.

[Dapper Dan]

I hadn't seen this thread. It's Joel's fault that we lost.

[Joel]

Lmao,

I knew it wouldnt be long before Joel brought up the Tebow factor. He's been just like every other fanboi and been pissed ever since Tebow was traded.
If we were that bad with Tebow, just changing the QB couldn't solve our problems; the same is true if we were actually good with Tebow. I mean, if we were lucky to win 8 games last year against a last place schedule, just how many wins does everyone think Manning gave us? At least 6, evidently, but does it get as high as 7? 8? Are we a 4-12 team without Manning? If so, we better do something about that fast, because we probably stll can't win a championship even with him, and he'll be 37 on Opening Day.

It was never about any QB, past or present. It was always about our guards awful run blocking, our tackles awful pass blocking, our receivers inconsistency, our NTs absence, our MLBs non-existence and our DBs forcing Champ to play all four positions because no one else could. Our receivers are MUCH improved, despite Thomas' fumble issues early in the year; combined with our FA additions I consider that problem addressed, though I wouldn't mind drafting someone late since I have no confidence in Willis to be our #3 when Stokley retires again. We still have no NT, and Brooking, though a good MLB this season, is in the last days of his career. An offseason of convalesence for Clady and experience for Franklin have made both of them reliable pass blockers, and replacing Walton with Koppen improved our interior runblocking (Beadles still blocks great downfield on guys 50 lbs. lighter, but provides no line surge. I THOUGHT we had the secondary issues licked after signing Adams, Leonhard, Porter and Florence, but the last two can't get on the field (Florence left the team before Opening Day) and we got TORCHED for umpteen long passes Saturday, so I guess not.

Not new problems, but not solved ones either, except, once again, for the receivers. But, hey, we lost in the divisonal round again; clearly we should drop $20 million/year on another QB who'll retire in two years instead of four or five quality players we desperately need elsewhere. I feel bad for Tebow because I thought he had a chance to be good but knew he was screwed when he signed with the offensively hopeless Jets, but as far as Denver goes he was irrelevant once we signed Manning. I've moved on and so has he; I recommend other Broncos fans follow suit. ;)