Losing against good teams vs bad teams

[CrazyHorse]

The Broncos three losses have come to playoff caliber teams and none of those losses were blowouts. People still say the Broncos can't beat good teams and feasted on an easy schedule. Even when we have beaten teams like the Bengals or Ravens people say the team wasn't very good or at full strength. The problem with this is teams such as the Patriots, 49ers, Seahawks have lost games to teams below .500. The Texans haven't but in a few of their games they were blown out. What bugs me is people somehow point to the Broncos losses as if they are worse than others. Has anyone else noticed this? I find it really annoying and don't have an explanation for this. Isn't getting beaten by the Cardinals more embarrassing than losing to the Falcons? I would think so unless people just see those losses as fluke or something.

[silkamilkamonico]

Doesn't matter, and this is such a stupid argument.

You win in the playoffs to win the superbowl. That's it. Nothing else matters.

[1uP]

It's normal, the explanation is that people are ticked off that their teams aren't doing as well, or didn't get as far and running their mouths makes them feel better

[TXBRONC]

I used but this stupid excuse in past but reality is you play who is in front of you. Patriots division hasn't been great for over decade no dismiss them as legitimate Super Bowl contender just because their division is weak.

[Nomad]

Doesn't matter, and this is such a stupid argument.

You win in the playoffs to win the superbowl. That's it. Nothing else matters.

True dat!! Keep winning and you're in, regardless of performance and score......the W is what matters. Playoffs is a new beginning for teams

[TXBRONC]

The reason other fans bring it up is because they are concerned. They ignore the circumstances surrounding those loses. Ignoring that Manning was with a new team after not playing for better than year because of an injury is just whistling past the graveyard. It was going to take time to gel. Also we had a new defensive coordinator for the umpteenth year in a row. They also ignore the fact all of those games ended up being close in the end.

The Ravens fans are worried so they're grasp at anything can to put their minds at easy. Denver has very good football and has excellent chance of winning this game.

[1uP]

Agreed ^^ Also the factor of trying to find a team rhythm in that first handful of games, we've been exceptional this year considering all the newness the teams undergone, and even if we lose here on out, broncos should be very proud

[SR]

The Broncos three losses have come to playoff caliber teams and none of those losses were blowouts.

Denver got their asses beat in all three games. Denver lost all three of those games the exact same way they won the 13 others...get ahead by a lot, go vanilla, other team scores once or twice and the end result doesn't appear to be as bad as the game really was. Denver got behind by a lot against Atlanta, Houston, and New England. In the end, the scoreboard didn't look as bad as the game really was, but lets not pretend that Denver was ever in either of those three games at any point.

[CoachChaz]

Well...we get nothing but playoff caliber teams from here on out...and it wont matter if the game is close or not...a loss is the end of the season. Period.

[NightTerror218]

Time for some great football either way. I have high expectations for us even though every game will make me nervous. I will not be over confident in any game.

[broncofaninfla]

Look at the Giants last year. They sucked at teh beginning of the seaon then went on to win teh super bowl. Our losses came early in eth season and before we yanked Mays from the middle and inserted Koppen in Waltons place. Both moves greatly improved both sides of the ball and we've been a better team since. Bring on the Ravens and may the best team win. Honetsly I feel very good about our chances against them this time around.

[cmc0605]

Ultimately, most fans don't watch many games outside of their own team...they just look at wins, losses, schedule, and are told what to think. One commenter on the Ravens forums (BMORE_96 here (http://boards.baltimoreravens.com/topic/50544-divisonal-playoffs-denver/page__st__180)) posted an "assessment of the game" in which he said that our offense went way downhill after McGahee was injured and that Moreno has been doing awful. I'm not sure if this was just his gut feeling of what should have happened in theory, but it certainly didn't come from any actual reality.

As far as the OP's question, while fans only care about wins and losses (and this is what the playoffs boil down to) it isn't what any football-smart person would judge a team by. You need to look at execution and consistency on film. In the Atlanta game for example, if Peyton doesn't throw 3 picks in a row, it's probably a different outcome. This doesn't take away from their win (they played excellent), but nobody would count on that happening if we played them again. Anything can happen on a given play, like a dropped pass or a bogus penalty; a game might involve half a dozen things like that, and that might change the outcome. That's why when you evaluate a team you need to "zoom out" and look at the forest rather than the trees. No one actually thinks Arizona is better than NE, for example. This is why it takes a little bit of luck to win a super bowl. But reality is only one realization of dozens of possible outcomes on a given play, and that's what you are dealt. Playing football is like playing craps- the better team might be representative of the chance of rolling a 7 (more ways to do this, you can roll a 6 and a 1, a 4 and a 3, a 5 and 2, etc) while the "worse" team might be representative of the chance of rolling a 2 (only one way to do this). Thus talent and coaching can give good teams a consistent edge, but it doesn't guarantee a win; similarly, it's tough for a crappy team to a roll a 2 consistently (i.e., continuing to get lucky all the way to the super bowl).

Anyone who has taken the time to watch Denver knows that, win or lose this saturday, this team is for real and has just as much chance to win the super bowl as anyone else. They have the house edge in craps.

As far as the schedule, Denver can't control who they play or who is injured when we play them. The only thing they can do is execute and play their game. And they've pretty much imposed their will on everyone in their way since the second half of the comeback win in the San Diego game, and have clearly developed better chemistry and personnel adjustments over the course of the season. That doesn't mean they will win it all, but they are for real.

[AlWilsonizKING]

Denver got their asses beat in all three games. Denver lost all three of those games the exact same way they won the 13 others...get ahead by a lot, go vanilla, other team scores once or twice and the end result doesn't appear to be as bad as the game really was. Denver got behind by a lot against Atlanta, Houston, and New England. In the end, the scoreboard didn't look as bad as the game really was, but lets not pretend that Denver was ever in either of those three games at any point.

Other than the NE game....we ran out of time in the end and just needed one score to take the lead in the other two........

We hadn't played well during the first half of the ATL and HOU games, but the second have was all ours....just ran out of time...so yes, we had a chance.



PEACE!!!

[cmc0605]

Denver got their asses beat in all three games. Denver lost all three of those games the exact same way they won the 13 others...get ahead by a lot, go vanilla, other team scores once or twice and the end result doesn't appear to be as bad as the game really was. Denver got behind by a lot against Atlanta, Houston, and New England. In the end, the scoreboard didn't look as bad as the game really was, but lets not pretend that Denver was ever in either of those three games at any point.

That's a good hypothesis, one completely wrecked by the comeback in the San Diego game. There is no such thing as "garbage time" in the NFL unless you're down to 5 minutes or so and maybe down by three scores. If I remember correctly, all we need to do is stop a 3rd down conversion in two of those games and we have a shot of coming back. In no reality could that ever count as never being in the game.

I'll give you that those other teams played better than Denver in those games. Like I said above, take away three picks n the first quarter of Atlanta and it might be different, but especially in the second half Denver showed that they could matchup with everyone.

[UnderArmour]

What is this thread even about? The Broncos are currently 0-0 and haven't played anyone yet. The playoffs are a new season.

[SR]

Other than the NE game....we ran out of time in the end and just needed one score to take the lead in the other two........

We hadn't played well during the first half of the ATL and HOU games, but the second have was all ours....just ran out of time...so yes, we had a chance.

PEACE!!!

Denver got their ass kicked until it was too late. Just like lots of teams Denver played this year and won by a score or a score and a FG. The teams that beat Denver got so far ahead that it was safe for them to sit on their leads and play vanilla ball. Denver never had a chance. Saying they just ran out of time is akin to saying they were never in the game.

[SR]

That's a good hypothesis, one completely wrecked by the comeback in the San Diego game. There is no such thing as "garbage time" in the NFL unless you're down to 5 minutes or so and maybe down by three scores. If I remember correctly, all we need to do is stop a 3rd down conversion in two of those games and we have a shot of coming back. In no reality could that ever count as never being in the game.

I'll give you that those other teams played better than Denver in those games. Like I said above, take away three picks n the first quarter of Atlanta and it might be different, but especially in the second half Denver showed that they could matchup with everyone.

I never mentioned San Diego because that win was so flukey it's in it's own category. But Peyton DID throw three picks and everything else that happened that led to those three losses happened so you can't take any of it away. It happened. Denver was outmatched. Denver is also a MUCH improved team now and I don't think the outcome would be the same except against New England maybe.