Complete AFC AND NFC Playoff Scenarios After Week 16

[BroncoWave]

Since the playoff picture is much more clear this week I will do the rundown for each conference. First AFC, then NFC. Scroll down to the bottom to see whom to root for.

Here are the current AFC Standings:

1. Houston (12-3)
2. Denver (12-3)
3. New England (11-4)
4. Baltimore (10-5)
5. Indianapolis (10-5)
6. Cincinnati (9-6)

All AFC teams have clinched, so only the seeding is up for grabs this week.

How Denver Stands:

Denver can still finish anywhere between seeds 1 and 3. Since Indy will likely rest their starters against Houston, the 2 is most likely. Either a win over KC or a NE loss to Miami gives us the 2. A win and a Houston loss gives us the 1.

Houston:

Houston can clinch the 1 seed with a win. They will fall to the 2 seed with:
--------loss, Denver loss, NE win
OR
--------loss, NE loss, Denver win

They will fall to the 3 seed with:
--------loss, NE win, Denver win

New England:

New England is currently the 3 seed. They can clinch the 1 seed with:
--------win, Denver loss, Houston loss

New England can clinch the 2 seed with:
--------win, Denver loss, Houston win
OR
--------win, Houston loss, Denver win

New England will fall to the 4 seed with:
--------loss, Baltimore win

Baltimore:

Baltimore is currently the 4 seed. They can clinch the 3 seed with:
--------win, NE loss

Indianapolis and Cincinnati:

Indy and Cincy are locked into seeds 5 and 6 respectively.

NFC:

Here are the current NFC standings:
1. Atlanta (12-3)
2. Green Bay (11-4)
3. San Francisco (10-4-1)
4. Washington (9-6)
5. Seattle (10-5)
6. Minnesota (9-6)

Atlanta:

The Falcons have clinched the NFC South homefield throughout the NFC playoffs.

Green Bay:

Green Bay has clinched the NFC North. They can clinch a first round bye with:
--------win
OR
--------SF loss

San Francisco:

The 49ers currently lead the NFC West. They can clinch the division with:
--------win
OR
--------Seattle loss

They can clinch a first round bye with:
--------win, GB loss

Washington:

The Redskins currently leads the NFC East. They can clinch the division with:
--------win

With a loss they can still clinch a wild card. They can do so with:
--------Vikings loss, Bears loss

Seattle:

The Seahawks currently sit in the 5 seed. They have clinched a playoff berth. They can clinch the division with:
--------win, SF loss

Minnesota:

The Vikings currently sit in the 6 seed and control their own destiny. They can clinch a wild card with:
--------win
OR
--------Giants loss, Redskins loss, Bears loss

Chicago:

The Bears currently sit in the 7 seed. They can clinch a wild card with:
--------win, Vikings loss

Dallas:

The Cowboys currently sit in the 8 seed. They can clinch the NFC East with:
--------win

They cannot clinch a wildcard. A win gives them the division, a loss knocks them out.

New York:

The Giants currently sit in the 9 seed and have the toughest road to the playoffs. They can clinch a wild card with:
--------win, Vikings loss, Bears loss, Cowboys loss

Whom to root for (in my humble opinion):

1. Denver- a win clinches a bye and keeps us alive for the 1 seed.
2. Indy- an Indy win give us home field with a win
3. Miami- a Miami win over NE gives us a safety net if we lose
4. Green Bay- knocks Minny out of playoffs and likely helps Manning's MVP case

That's all I have. If anyone has any questions or sees a mistake I made please let me know.

[Joel]

Miami won't beat NE so the only way they don't get a bye to rest and heal up is if we AND Houston win. That would give us homefield against anyone but Houston, plus the bye, and since everyone seems sure the Texans are paper tigers it shouldn't matter where we end up playing them, right? The important thing is the Pats and Ravens, two teams I can't stand, must play their only home playoff game Wildcard Weekend. :)

Can't speak for others, but I'm hoping against hope that the Broncos, Texans, Cowboys and Vikings all win; then (and ONLY then) every team I like makes the playoffs. NFC looks very iffy though. :(

[BroncoWave]

So you're so scared of NE you don't want us to have homefield throughout because that would give them a first round bye? That's ridiculous. It's not like they're going to have a bye before playing us. And if you look at recent results of teams with first round byes, it's not like they have an overwhelming advantage.

[Joel]

So you're so scared of NE you don't want us to have homefield throughout because that would give them a first round bye? That's ridiculous. It's not like they're going to have a bye before playing us. And if you look at recent results of teams with first round byes, it's not like they have an overwhelming advantage.
No, I'm that disgusted with NE. There's no guarantee we'll win it all, but Houston doing so is the next best thing, IMHO, and another Pats Super Bowl is just about the worst outcome I can imagine (though Green Bay winning a fifth would be pretty annoying, too.)

Meanwhile, if NE gets a bye it's EXACTLY like they'll get a bye and a chance to heal/rest before playing us. Either they'll have the top seed, so they'll get a first round bye and we won't see them until we play them on the road in the AFCCG, or we'll have the top seed and they'll be next, so they'll get a first round bye and we won't see them until hosting the AFCCG. Either way, they'll get a bye before playing us, or anyone else (that's how byes work. :tongue:) Granted, Belicheats "injury" reports must be taken with a shaker of salt, but 19 Patriots are on it right now, and Gronk and Brandon Spikes are listed as "out." I don't want to give those guys a two weeks to knit without having to play, or the Pats a free pass to a home divisional game despite missing players like Gronk. The only way to prevent that is a Broncos AND Texans win.

Homefield's a big deal in frigid Mile High air, but there's a reason the NFL introduced midseason, postseason and pre-Super Bowl byes: It got tired of awarding Lombardis based on who is hurt least.

It's cool though; I freely admit that, in addition to strategic and tactical concerns, I have numerous personal motives others do not share: I fervently want Denver to win, but just as badly want NE to lose, and, while preferable, the latter does not require the former. Further, I was born in Houston and the Texans are almost like the Broncos-East anyway (though less so since Shanny went to Washington and stopped shipping them our castoffs,) so if I must tolerate any Super Bowl champ but Denver, Houston is my first choice. Others feel differently, and that's fine. :)

[CrazyHorse]

I think Miami can beat a New England team that's been of their game. I wouldn't bet on it though. Teams are most dangerous when they have nothing to lose. I hope the return of Chuck Pagano invigorates the Colts and gives them something to play for. Ideally we're the first seed, Houston second and the Pats third. Realistically though we'll probably get the second which is fine with me.

[Joel]

I'm not fine with the #2 seed if NE has the #1. They'd still get a bye and we'd still probably have to play the AFCCG in Foxboro. Better than not playing at all, but undesirable except to felonious snowplow drivers.

[LawDog]

I'm not fine with the #2 seed if NE has the #1. They'd still get a bye and we'd still probably have to play the AFCCG in Foxboro. Better than not playing at all, but undesirable except to felonious snowplow drivers.

That can not happen... Only way NE gets the #1 is if both Den and Hou lose and if that happens, Hou has the tiebreaker over Den and so Den would be #3.

[BroncoWave]

Yeah you have it wrong Joel. If we get a bye the pats can't finish above us. That's why it's silly to root for Houston this week.

[Joel]

That can not happen... Only way NE gets the #1 is if both Den and Hou lose and if that happens, Hou has the tiebreaker over Den and so Den would be #3.
Fair point; we can't get the #2 if they have the #1, but they CAN get the #2 if we have the #1. I don't think the difference between the #1 and #2 seed is that big a deal, since hurt players have time to heal, healthy ones have half the injury risk and you play the divisional game at home. The difference between #2 and #3 is huge because the latter is DENIED all those advantages.


Yeah you have it wrong Joel. If we get a bye the pats can't finish above us. That's why it's silly to root for Houston this week.
No, because a Houston loss all but assures NE a bye to heal hurt players and avoid injuries to healthy ones, plus a home game in the divisional round. The difference between a Houston AND Denver win vs. a Houston loss and Denver win is homefield against anyone BUT Houston instead of everyone. Unless we and the Texans both reach the AFCCG there is literally no difference between the #1 and #2 seed for EITHER.

There is, however, a big difference between NE having a bye and not having a bye. I know Belicheat has made a career of reducing the injury report to mockery, but there are NINETEEN Pats on it right now. I don't want to give them a weeks vacation right before a home playoff game, and that's exactly what a Denver win and Houston loss would do.