Complete AFC Playoff Scenarios After Week 15

[BroncoWave]

I know this is usually RYO's thing but it's getting close to the weekend and I was bored at work today so here goes. Scroll down to the bottom to see who to root for this week.

Here are the current AFC standings:

1. Houston (12-2)
2. Denver (11-3)
3. New England (10-4)
4. Baltimore (9-5)
5. Indianapolis (9-5)
6. Cincinnati (8-6)

Still alive:

7. Pittsburgh (7-7)
8. Miami (6-8)

The top seeds:

Barring any major upsets in the final two weeks these seem to be pretty well set in stone as Houston and Denver in that order. The Pats are still alive however if either slips up.

How Denver Stands:

Currently Denver can finish anywhere between the 1 and 3 seeds. By far the most likely is the 2. To get the 1 seed, we would have to win out and have Houston lose to Minnesota and Indy. If we lose one and NE wins out we will fall to the 3. We would also fall to the 3 if we lose out and NE wins once.

The rest of the AFC:

Houston: Houston has clinched the AFC south and can clinch the 1 seed by winning one of their last two. They could fall to the 2 seed if they lose out AND:
--------Denver wins out and NE loses at least once (This results in 1. Denver (13-3), 2. Houston (12-4), 3. NE (11-5)
OR
--------NE wins out and Denver loses at least once. (This results in 1. NE (12-4), 2. Hou (12-4), 3. Denver (12-4). Denver gets the 3 because of losing to both teams and NE gets the 1 on head-to-head over Houston)

Houston can fall to the 3 seed if they lose out AND:
--------Denver wins out and NE wins out (This results in 1. Denver (13-3), 2. NE (12-4), 3. Houston (12-4).)

New England: New England has clinched the AFC East and is currently slotted in the 3 seed. They can rise to the #1 seed if they win out AND:
--------Denver loses at least once and Houston loses out.

New England can secure the #2 seed if:
--------NE wins out, Houston loses out, Denver wins out
OR
--------NE wins out, Denver loses once, Houston wins at least once
OR
--------NE wins at least once, Denver loses out

New England can FALL to the 4 seed if:
--------Baltimore wins out, NE loses at least once
OR
--------Baltimore wins at least once, NE loses out

Baltimore: Baltimore has clinched a playoff spot and currently sits as the 4 seed. They can finish anywhere between the 3 and 6 seed.

Baltimore can clinch the AFC North with a win

Baltimore can clinch the 3 seed if:
--------Baltimore wins out, NE loses at least once
OR
--------Baltimore wins at least once, NE loses out

Baltimore will fall to the 5 seed if:
--------Baltimore loses out, Cincy wins out, Indianapolis loses out

Baltimore will fall to the 6 seed if:
--------Baltimore loses out, Cincy wins out, Indianapolis wins at least once

Indianapolis: Indianapolis currently sits as the 5 seed and has not clinched a playoff spot.

Indianapolis can clinch a playoff spot if:
--------Indianapolis wins at least one game
OR
--------Pittsburgh loses at lease one game
OR
--------Cincinnati loses out

Cincinnati: Cincinnati currently sits as the 6 seed and has not clinched a playoff spot

Cincinnati can win their division if:
--------Cincinnati wins out, Baltimore loses out

Cincinnati can clinch a playoff spot if:
--------Cincinnati wins at least once
OR
--------Pittsburgh loses out, Miami loses at least once
OR
--------Pittsburgh loses out, New York wins out (while NY is eliminated, them winning out would knock out Miami, sending Cincy to the playoffs)

Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh currently sits as the 7 seed.

Pittsburgh can clinch a playoff spot if:
--------Pittsburgh wins out
OR
--------Cincy loses out, Miami loses at least once
OR
--------Cincy loses out, Jets win out

New York: New York currently sits as the 8 seed but has been eliminated from playoff contention

Miami: Miami currently sits as the 9 seed but still has faint playoff hope.

Miami can clinch a playoff berth if:
--------Miami wins out, Cincinnati loses out, Pitt loses in week 17, New York loses once

Whom to root for this week:

1. Denver- Denver has to keep winning to clinch a first round bye without help.
2. Minnesota- A Minnesota win over Houston keeps us alive for the 1 seed.
3. Pittsburgh- I considered putting this at 2. If Pitt can sneak in as the 6 seed, they would likely give NE (assuming they are the 3) they toughest first round matchup.
4. Jacksonville- A Jags win over the Pats gives us breathing room for the 2 in case we slip up once
5. Baltimore- if the Pats slip up, Baltimore winning out gives them the 3 seed, giving us a more desirable second round matchup

That's all I have. If anyone has any questions or sees a mistake I made please let me know.

[Northman]

The scary thing is technically (i did say technically) if Denver wins out and Houston loses the last two we would be the 1st seed. Not likely, but awesome if it actually happened.

[Dapper Dan]

The scary thing is technically (i did say technically) if Denver wins out and Houston loses the last two we would be the 1st seed. Not likely, but awesome if it actually happened.

That would be neato.

[CrazyHorse]

I actually kind of want the Stealers to get the 6th seed. Call me crazy but I think they have a decent shot of beating the Patriots at home.

[GEM]

Nice work BTB! #1 would be effing awesome, but #2 will do alright too! :D

[BroncoWave]

I actually kind of want the Stealers to get the 6th seed. Call me crazy but I think they have a decent shot of beating the Patriots at home.

I think Pitt is definitely who we should all be rooting for to get the 6 seed. I don't see a team like Cincy, Indy, or Miami giving the Pats a challenge at all. Pitt at least is capable of beating them on a good day.

[Dapper Dan]

I think Pitt is definitely who we should all be rooting for to get the 6 seed. I don't see a team like Cincy, Indy, or Miami giving the Pats a challenge at all. Pitt at least is capable of beating them on a good day.

Agreed. It's not all about talent. It takes a veteran team, in my opinion.

[Army Bronco]

I would love another revenge tour. Ne, Hou, and Atl in the SB.

[BroncoWave]

I would love another revenge tour. Ne, Hou, and Atl in the SB.

I'd rather have an easier path to the Super Bowl than a "revenge tour". There is a high likelyhood that that tour will end after one stop if we draw the pats in round two.

[Army Bronco]

I would love another revenge tour. Ne, Hou, and Atl in the SB.

I'd rather have an easier path to the Super Bowl than a "revenge tour". There is a high likelyhood that that tour will end after one stop if we draw the pats in round two. You are probably right but i want our team to take and win it the hard way. No one could ever doubt them. But i would be ecstatic if we won it all any way it comes.

[shank]

I would love another revenge tour. Ne, Hou, and Atl in the SB.
that would be badass if it worked out that way. poetic.

[Northman]

You are probably right but i want our team to take and win it the hard way. No one could ever doubt them. But i would be ecstatic if we won it all any way it comes.

I hear what your saying and would love that as well. Problem is, there is far more youth than experience on this team so to actually pull that off would be a miracle within itself.

[MasterShake]

I think Pitt is definitely who we should all be rooting for to get the 6 seed. I don't see a team like Cincy, Indy, or Miami giving the Pats a challenge at all. Pitt at least is capable of beating them on a good day.

I think Cincy would actually give the Pats a bit more of a challenge than Pittsburgh. Pitt has been playing awful lately, at least Cincy has that great pass rush which is one of Tom Brady's weaknesses.

[TXBRONC]

I'd rather have an easier path to the Super Bowl than a "revenge tour". There is a high likelyhood that that tour will end after one stop if we draw the pats in round two.

There really isn't such thing as an easier path to Super Bowl. We had the "easier path in 1996 how did that turn out BTB?

[BroncoWave]

There really isn't such thing as an easier path to Super Bowl. We had the "easier path in 1996 how did that turn out BTB?

So you'd rather play the Pats in round 2 than the Ravens, Colts, Steelers, or Bengals?

[BroncoWave]

I think Cincy would actually give the Pats a bit more of a challenge than Pittsburgh. Pitt has been playing awful lately, at least Cincy has that great pass rush which is one of Tom Brady's weaknesses.

Eh, I don't think Cincy has the QB play to keep up with the Pats. While Pitt has definitely been struggling, Big Been is good enough to pull out a game for them when he is on. I don't think you can say that about Cincy.

[MasterShake]

Eh, I don't think Cincy has the QB play to keep up with the Pats. While Pitt has definitely been struggling, Big Been is good enough to pull out a game for them when he is on. I don't think you can say that about Cincy.

I agree if Pitt can keep it close I would like them to pull off the upset, but realistically I think who ever the Patriots pull in the wild card if the standings stay that way are gonna get smoked.

[BroncoWave]

I agree if Pitt can keep it close I would like them to pull off the upset, but realistically I think who ever the Patriots pull in the wild card if the standings stay that way are gonna get smoked.

Probably so. They would win 90% of the time against all of them. I just feel like if all of those teams are playing at their best, Pitt is the toughest out. They still have a top 5 defense.

[MasterShake]

Probably so. They would win 90% of the time against all of them. I just feel like if all of those teams are playing at their best, Pitt is the toughest out. They still have a top 5 defense.

I'm just happy that right now it looks like the Broncos are destined to meet them in the playoffs and the path appears to be going through Denver. I will take that all day. I was lucky enough to go to the divisional game in 2005 and I have NEVER heard the stadium rocking like that. I still contend we beat a better version of the Pats back then, and now we have a more complete team. The next few weeks are going to feel like the preseason to me, but I know the team will keep their foot on the pedal to secure a top seed. I just couldn't be happier as a Broncos fan right now! I haven't felt this good about a team since 1998.

[TXBRONC]

So you'd rather play the Pats in round 2 than the Ravens, Colts, Steelers, or Bengals?

Denver is more than capable beating Patriots and especially if the Broncos are at home.

If you're saying it's virtually lock to beat the Ravens, Colts, Steelers, or Bengals I disagree.

Finally you play who you play and even if you're the better on paper you can't go to sleep on whoever you face in the playoffs.

[OrangeHoof]

Some teams you just don't want to play on the road. NE, Baltimore and Pittsburgh can all kill you with harsh weather conditions in January and rabid fan bases. I don't see Houston being an intimidating place to play (and certainly not for Peyton Manning who has won all but once down there). Plus, there is the possibility that Houston chokes in the second round and the Broncos get to host the AFCCG. So being #2 is a great spot for Denver. The really dangerous teams have to come to Denver and play at altitude and the Texans still have a phobia about Manning that will show up quickly if the Broncos can build a lead in Houston and silence the crowd. Then you'd have the Super Bowl in Manning's unofficial hometown, in a Dome with the sort of conditions where his passes can be at maximum efficiency.

This really shapes up very well for the Broncos, even as a #2 seed. You are always playing good teams in the playoffs but I like Denver's position just the way it is.

[BroncoWave]

Denver is more than capable beating Patriots and especially if the Broncos are at home.

If you're saying it's virtually lock to beat the Ravens, Colts, Steelers, or Bengals I disagree.

Finally you play who you play and even if you're the better on paper you can't go to sleep on whoever you face in the playoffs.

Where did I say we would be a virtual lock to beat any of those teams? All I said is I would take my chances in a matchup with any of those teams instead of the Pats.

[TXBRONC]

Where did I say we would be a virtual lock to beat any of those teams? All I said is I would take my chances in a matchup with any of those teams instead of the Pats.

I guess you've never used a condtional statements before?

That said, what you're saying isn't logical. You're saying elsewhere that you think the Steelers have a chance to knock off the Patriots yet you like our chances against Steelers.

I like our chances against any of them especially if we're at home.

[BroncoWave]

I guess you've never used a condtional statements before?

That said, what you're saying isn't logical. You're saying elsewhere that you think the Steelers have a chance to knock off the Patriots yet you like our chances against Steelers.

I like our chances against any of them especially if we're at home.

What I'm saying is perfectly logical, you're just distorting my argument and taking it to the extreme.

I said I think the Pats would beat the Steelers 90% of the time if you actually read my post. The Pats are CERTAINLY better than Pitt. Having said that, I think Pitt has the best chance of upsetting them and I'd much rather play Pitt in the second round than NE. That's just a team we match up well against, especially since Ryan Clark can't play against us.

[TXBRONC]

What I'm saying is perfectly logical, you're just distorting my argument and taking it to the extreme.

I said I think the Pats would beat the Steelers 90% of the time if you actually read my post. The Pats are CERTAINLY better than Pitt. Having said that, I think Pitt has the best chance of upsetting them and I'd much rather play Pitt in the second round than NE. That's just a team we match up well against, especially since Ryan Clark can't play against us.

No I didn't distort anything you said and yes I did read your post apparently you didn't mine very carefully. I used the exact same word you did chance in describing the Patriots facing the Steelers. You not liking do

You do realize the Steelers have beaten Denver before without Ryan Clark in the line up. They came into Denver beat up hell and still nearly won the game.

[BroncoWave]

No I didn't distort anything you said. I used the exact same word you did chance in describing the Patriots facing the Steelers.

You do realize the Steelers have beaten Denver before without Ryan Clark in the line up. They came into Denver beat up hell and still nearly won the game.

Are you saying you would rather play the Pats than the Steelers? Just for the record.

[BroncoWave]

Also, we were struggling to beat anyone the first month of the season. Yeah they were banged up, but we are miles better now than we were then. Pitt has gotten a little better, but I still think we would be a substantial home favorite against them.

[TXBRONC]

Are you saying you would rather play the Pats than the Steelers? Just for the record.

For the record I've already stated how I feel about who Denver plays (post #20).

[jhildebrand]

I think I heard somewhere that if Cincy and Indy win this Sunday no matter what else happens this week or next week, the current PO seeding as it stands now is set and will remain the same in the AFC.

[TXBRONC]

Also, we were struggling to beat anyone the first month of the season. Yeah they were banged up, but we are miles better now than we were then. Pitt has gotten a little better, but I still think we would be a substantial home favorite against them.

I agree we are miles better last year that's why I say I like our chance at home againsts anyone including the Patriots.

As I've said before I don't think there really is suuch a thing as an easier path.

[TXBRONC]

I think I heard somewhere that if Cincy and Indy win this Sunday no matter what else happens this week or next week, the current PO seeding as it stands now is set and will remain the same in the AFC.

If the Steelers win out they're in because that means they'll have beaten Bengals twice.

[BroncoWave]

For the record I've already stated how I feel about who Denver plays (post #20).

That's not really an answer though. If someone gave you the power to pick who Denver plays in round two and you have to pick between NE and Pitt, who would you choose? It's not a hard question.

I think you are refusing to answer because your answer would be Pitt and that would show that you actually agree with me but just wanted to start an argument for argument's sake.

[BroncoWave]

I think I heard somewhere that if Cincy and Indy win this Sunday no matter what else happens this week or next week, the current PO seeding as it stands now is set and will remain the same in the AFC.

I just did the math and you are correct. Cincy can't pass Indy because if they had the same record they would both be 7-5 in the AFC, but Indy would be 4-1 against common opponents while Cincy would be 3-2.

That would only be the case for seeds 4-6 though. Seeds 1-3 are fluid regardless of how Indy and Cincy do this week.

[TXBRONC]

That's not really an answer though. If someone gave you the power to pick who Denver plays in round two and you have to pick between NE and Pitt, who would you choose? It's not a hard question.

I think you are refusing to answer because your answer would be Pitt and that would show that you actually agree with me but just wanted to start an argument for argument's sake.

Don't give up your day job because you sure as hell can't read minds or posts.

Yes it is an answer. I don't care who we play period. If you don't like the answer to bad.

No you have market cornered on arguing just for the sake of the arguing.

[BroncoWave]

Don't give up your day job because you sure as hell can read minds or posts.

Yes it an answer. I don't care who we play period. I you don't like the answer to bad.

No you have market cornered on arguing just for the sake of the arguing.

"I don't care who we play" is not an answer. It's sidestepping my question. It's ok though, I know why you aren't answering it.

[TXBRONC]

"I don't care who we play" is not an answer. It's sidestepping my question. It's ok though, I know why you aren't answering it.

You're full of crap. It answers your question you're just not mature enough to understand it doesn't matter to me who we face.

:wave:

[Dapper Dan]

You guys are cute when you're like this.

[BroncoWave]

You're full of crap. It answers your question you're just not mature enough to understand it doesn't matter to me who we face.

:wave:

Let me rephrase it. Who do you think Denver has a better shot at beating, Pitt or NE? Surely you have thoughts on which team we match up better with?

[TXBRONC]

You guys are cute when you're like this.

And you're not but you do talk a lot.

[Dapper Dan]

And you're not but you do talk a lot.

Mostly true.

[TXBRONC]

Mostly true.

Not mostly it's 100% true.

[TXBRONC]

Let me rephrase it. Who do you think Denver has a better shot at beating, Pitt or NE? Surely you have thoughts on which team we match up better with?

We match up well against both teams. We match a little better Steelers but where you're scared of Patriots I'm not. The only place where Patriots have an advantage is at tight end. We have the advantage at wide receiver. If we get to face them home I like our chances against the Patriots as I do the Steelers.

[Dapper Dan]

Not mostly it's 100% true.

You're so bitchy today.

[BroncoWave]

We match up well against both teams. We match a little better Steelers but where you're scared of Patriots I'm not. The only place where Patriots have an advantage is at tight end. We have the advantage at wide receiver. If we get to face them home I like our chances against the Patriots as I do the Steelers.

So you started an argument with me over me rather seeing the Steelers than the Pats but you agree the Steelers are a better matchup for us. And I'm the one who likes to start arguments for no reason. Awesome! :lol:

[TXBRONC]

So you started an argument with me over me rather seeing the Steelers than the Pats but you agree the Steelers are a better matchup for us. And I'm the one who likes to start arguments for no reason. Awesome! :lol:

For person with a education from Tulane your comprehension skills stink. I didn't agree with completely but as usual you can't read. All I did was respond to you and then you went off on your little girl tangent. You do that well. :rofl:

[TXBRONC]

You're so bitchy today.

More like calling it like I see it. You constantly insert smart ass comments into every banter conversation that goes on.

[BroncoWave]

For person with a education from Tulane your comprehension skills stink. I didn't agree with completely but as usual you can't read. All I did was respond to you and then you went off on your little girl tangent. You do that well. :rofl:

This is a chronological order of our posts. You tell me which one of us got personal first...

.
.
.
.
.


There really isn't such thing as an easier path to Super Bowl. We had the "easier path in 1996 how did that turn out BTB?


So you'd rather play the Pats in round 2 than the Ravens, Colts, Steelers, or Bengals?


Denver is more than capable beating Patriots and especially if the Broncos are at home.

If you're saying it's virtually lock to beat the Ravens, Colts, Steelers, or Bengals I disagree.

Finally you play who you play and even if you're the better on paper you can't go to sleep on whoever you face in the playoffs.


Where did I say we would be a virtual lock to beat any of those teams? All I said is I would take my chances in a matchup with any of those teams instead of the Pats.


I guess you've never used a condtional statements before?

That said, what you're saying isn't logical. You're saying elsewhere that you think the Steelers have a chance to knock off the Patriots yet you like our chances against Steelers.

I like our chances against any of them especially if we're at home.

This was a civil conversation until you decided to make me the topic.

[Poet]

We're all friends here.

[Army Bronco]

I agree with King... lets make up, the world hasnt ended.......yet.

[jhildebrand]

That would only be the case for seeds 4-6 though. Seeds 1-3 are fluid regardless of how Indy and Cincy do this week.

It was on 102.3 ESPN yesterday. They said 1-6 is set in the AFC if both Indy and Cincy win this weekend no matter what else happens. Is that not true? :confused:

[BroncoWave]

It was on 102.3 ESPN yesterday. They said 1-6 is set in the AFC if both Indy and Cincy win this weekend no matter what else happens.

You either misheard them or they are flat out wrong. Let's just say Cincy and Indy both win this week. That puts Cincy in a tie for the division lead with a week to go if the Ravens lose. Tell me exactly how that makes the 1-6 order set in stone? Also, the battle for the 1-3 seeds are completely independent of what happens with Cincy and Indy this week.

I would assume what you heard is that if Indy and Cincy win the 6 playoff spots in the AFC will all be clinched. The order of those seeds will in no way be settled by just those two games though.

[BroncoWave]

After studying it for a bit there is no possible scenario in which the 1-6 seeds could be determined this week. The only way all 6 playoff teams can be clinched is if Cincy wins this week. And if that happens, the AFC North still won't be decided if the Ravens lose, and the battle for the 3 seed won't be decided if the Ravens win.

[Joel]

I still don't think the Pats that good, particularly on defense (they gave up 41 points to an anemic '9ers offense playing in muddy rain.) They beat Houston badly, but did it in New England with half the Texans defensive starters on the sideline hurt. They beat us just as badly, but again in NE, and that was our last loss; this team is playing completely differently now (for one thing, Brooking, Koppen, Moreno and DJ weren't starting then.) If everyone's healthy I don't think they can beat Houston OR Denver again on the road.

I still have a hard time believing the Bengals can make the playoffs facing Baltimore and Pitt in their last two games. In fact, (feel free and welcome to correct me if I'm wrong, BTB) I think they not only can't clinch a playoff berth with just one win, but are effectively eliminated UNLESS they beat Pitt this weekend.

Baltimore is 9-5 overall and 4-1 in the division; they beat Cincy once and end the season @Cincy.
Cincy is 8-6 overall and 1-3 in the division they're @Pitt then host Baltimore.
Pitt is 7-7 overall and 2-2 in the division; they beat Cincy once and host them this weekend, then Cleveland.

If the Steelers win both those games they finish ahead of the Bengals, and (I believe) the Ravens clinch the division NO MATTER WHAT. Even if the Ravens lost to the Giants and Bengals it would end:

Baltimore 9-7 overall, 4-2 division, 7-5 common games with Baltimore and Pitt, 8-4 conference, splitting head-to-heads with Cincy and Pitt
Pitt 9-7 overall, 4-2 division, 6-6 common games with Cincy and 7-5 common games with Baltimore, 6-6 conference, sweeping Cincy
Cincy 9-7 overall, 2-4 division, 8-4 common games with Pitt and 7-5 common games with Baltimore, 6-6 conference, splitting head-to-to heads with Baltimore

Division tiebreaks go head-to-head, divison record, common games, conference record, etc. http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

I'm unsure how to interpret "games among [NOT between] the clubs" in a three-way tie. If it means best percentage of the four Pitt/Baltimore/Cincy games, Pitt won 3, Baltimore 2 and Cincy 1, so Pitt would win the division and the #4 seed, then we'd start over and Baltimore would be next by division record. If it means one team must sweep BOTH others head-to-head wouldn't apply: Division record would eliminate Cincy, and Baltimore would win the division and #4 seed on common games, with Pitt next on division record. Either way, the Bengals would be screwed if Pitt beat them this week.

Technically, Cincy COULD still sneak into the #6 seed on strength of victory despite Pitt winning their last two IF they beat Baltimore AND the Colts lost their last two. It's impossible to be sure, since we can't know either teams' final strength of victory with two games to play. However, the Colts are @2-12 KC this week and unlikely to lose, even at Arrowhead. If the Bengals lose to Pitt they're probably done.

Frankly, I think Denver can handle any of those teams at Mile High, and, though that would certainly be the worst case scenario, the Cheatriots as well. I just don't think we can beat the Texans on the road, but since a Denver/Houston AFCCG is my ideal scenario, I'm trying to focus on the inevitable upside rather than the inevitable downside.

[BroncoWave]

Joel, cincy can clinch a playoff berth with a win this week because that would give them a two game lead on Pitt with one to play. A cincy win would also clinch Indy's playoff spot.

[Joel]

Joel, cincy can clinch a playoff berth with a win this week because that would give them a two game lead on Pitt with one to play. A cincy win would also clinch Indy's playoff spot.
Right, but that doesn't mean Cincy clinches with A win: It must specifically beat PITT now, else winning next week probably can't help (depends on SoV against Indy, assuming the Colts lose their last two as well.) Sorry if I'm being too literal, just want to make sure I understand all the contingencies correctly (I'm still a bit unsure about three-way head-to-head ties.)

[Poet]

If Cincinnati losses this week,we can get in if we win against Balt and Pitt loses. Cincinnati, Pitt and Indy are the only three teams who can get into the WC. Tenn technically can, but what they need is almost impossible.

[Joel]

If Cincinnati losses this week,we can get in if we win against Balt and Pitt loses. Cincinnati, Pitt and Indy are the only three teams who can get into the WC. Tenn technically can, but what they need is almost impossible.
True as far as it goes, and you know your division better than I, but it's hard to see the Browns beating the Steelers on the road. They only beat them by 6 at home, and that was with 8 turnovers and Roethlisberger in civies. There's a reason the Browns are the only AFCN NOT in contention for the division title; ya'll are in trouble without a win against Pitt. Regardless, you can't clinch a playoff spot with just one win, because if it's against Baltimore you'll almost certainly need Cleveland to beat Pitt on the road.

Note: I have no dog in this fight and am not prejudiced against any AFCN team: As a lifelong Oilers fan, I hate 'em all the same. :tongue: Wait, no; as a Broncos, Cowboys and Vikings fan, too, I hate Pitt most. :)

[Poet]

Well, we can clinch with one win. If we beat Pitt tomorrow we are the wild card spot.

If we don't win, who knows? Last year the Bengals ended up being the sixth seed and they lost the last two weeks. The Browns may be able to do something against Pitt.

I'm just hoping that we take care of business tomorrow. If we win, we're in. We should relish that.

[Nomad]

True as far as it goes, and you know your division better than I, but it's hard to see the Browns beating the Steelers on the road. They only beat them by 6 at home, and that was with 8 turnovers and Roethlisberger in civies. There's a reason the Browns are the only AFCN NOT in contention for the division title; ya'll are in trouble without a win against Pitt. Regardless, you can't clinch a playoff spot with just one win, because if it's against Baltimore you'll almost certainly need Cleveland to beat Pitt on the road.

Note: I have no dog in this fight and am not prejudiced against any AFCN team: As a lifelong Oilers fan, I hate 'em all the same. :tongue: Wait, no; as a Broncos, Cowboys and Vikings fan, too, I hate Pitt most. :)

My dad watched the Oiler's quite often when I was a kid.

I like MS's revenge tour....Patriots, Texans, Falcons.

[BroncoWave]

If Cincinnati losses this week,we can get in if we win against Balt and Pitt loses. Cincinnati, Pitt and Indy are the only three teams who can get into the WC. Tenn technically can, but what they need is almost impossible.

Miami can, not Tenn. See post #1.

[Poet]

Miami can, not Tenn. See post #1.

Thanks for the correction. :laugh:

[Joel]

My dad watched the Oiler's quite often when I was a kid.

I like MS's revenge tour....Patriots, Texans, Falcons.
A Broncos/Texans AFCCG, although it is my ideal scenario, would make me very conflicted. I was born and raised in Houston; the Oilers won the first two AFL championships (and lost the third to the Dallas Texans in double OT,) but otherwise the city had never earned a pro championship until the Rockets early '90s repeat, which is still the only one. The only time Houston had even been IN a pro championship was when the Rockets lost to the Celtics in six games in 1986. Other than that, the closest any Houston team had come to contesting a championship was when the Astros lost the NLCS to the eventual champion Mets that same year, and when the Oilers earned wildcards and reached the AFCCG in '78 and '79 only to find themselves beaten yet again on the road by the team that won their division: Pittsburgh.

Those were big games; the second led directly to the introduction of replay review, when officials in Pitt ruled an Oilers TD catch incomplete despite instant replay clearly showing it was a catch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gCFx5jC_q4

Because Bud Adams is a miserable excuse for a human being, it also led to the teams almost immediate collapse. After a first round playoff exit the following year, Bum Phillips was fired and moved to New Orleans, where the "Aints" were best known for their few fans attending home games wearing paper bags so no one recognized them. The Oilers would not return to the playoffs for seven years, and in the interim traded Earl Campbell to New Orleans, where he retired after two years. When Houston finally did get back to the playoffs, they never got past the divisional round despite seven straight appearances. Following the sixth Bud Adams issued an ultimatum: Win the Super Bowl or he would dismantle the team; following The Comeback against Buffalo he did precisely that, trading the teams veteran Pro Bowlers to various other teams and shortly thereafter moving it to Tennessee. Bud is adept at cutting off his nose to spite his face.

Now Houston has a new team. Its head coach is Houston native and former Broncos player/OC Gary Kubiak, who brought the ZBS that drew me to the Broncos with him to Houston. Its defensive coordinator is Shanahans predecessor as Denver head coach: Bum Phillips' son Wade, an Orange, TX native just like his father. Bum's 89 now, but was still in the owners box to see the Texans first playoff game last year. It's very hard to articlute how much it would fulfill my childhood dreams to watch Houston FINALLY win a Super Bowl with Bum watching and Wade and Kubiak on the sidelines. All three of them know, because they know the story of Luv Ya Blue better than almost anyone could.

I'm focusing on the fact the Houston and Denver are the favorites to earn the top two seeds, a first round bye and homefield against anyone but each other; frankly, I much prefer the AFCCG be in Houston, where I think the game would be close, because the Gulf Coast indoor team would have an uphill battle in freezing Mile High air. I loathe all the other potential AFC playoff teams (I actually don't mind the Jets, but they're only technically contenders and I can't stand the entire Ryan familly.) Pittsburgh is... Pittsburgh, the team that beat Houston in two AFCCGs and Dallas in two Super Bowls, consecutively in '78 (incidentally preventing an All Texas Super Bowl.) I grew up despising Bernie Kosar, Kevin Mack, Boomer Esiason and Icky Woods, and the Ravens are just the Browns in a different city with a Pro Bowl murderer playing MLB. The Cheatriots are the Cheatriots, and Tom Brady last year joined Elway as the only QBs to start 5 Super Bowls; I really don't want to see him set a new record with 6.

Denver v. Houston in the AFCCG; my heart is set on it. One of them must lose such a game, and that will be bittersweet for me, but as long as both demolish everyone else I'll be happy.

[Nomad]

A Broncos/Texans AFCCG, although it is my ideal scenario, would make me very conflicted. I was born and raised in Houston; the Oilers won the first two AFL championships (and lost the third to the Dallas Texans in double OT,) but otherwise the city had never earned a pro championship until the Rockets early '90s repeat, which is still the only one. The only time Houston had even been IN a pro championship was when the Rockets lost to the Celtics in six games in 1986. Other than that, the closest any Houston team had come to contesting a championship was when the Astros lost the NLCS to the eventual champion Mets that same year, and when the Oilers earned wildcards and reached the AFCCG in '78 and '79 only to find themselves beaten yet again on the road by the team that won their division: Pittsburgh.

Those were big games; the second led directly to the introduction of replay review, when officials in Pitt ruled an Oilers TD catch incomplete despite instant replay clearly showing it was a catch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gCFx5jC_q4

Because Bud Adams is a miserable excuse for a human being, it also led to the teams almost immediate collapse. After a first round playoff exit the following year, Bum Phillips was fired and moved to New Orleans, where the "Aints" were best known for their few fans attending home games wearing paper bags so no one recognized them. The Oilers would not return to the playoffs for seven years, and in the interim traded Earl Campbell to New Orleans, where he retired after two years. When Houston finally did get back to the playoffs, they never got past the divisional round despite seven straight appearances. Following the sixth Bud Adams issued an ultimatum: Win the Super Bowl or he would dismantle the team; following The Comeback against Buffalo he did precisely that, trading the teams veteran Pro Bowlers to various other teams and shortly thereafter moving it to Tennessee. Bud is adept at cutting off his nose to spite his face.

Now Houston has a new team. Its head coach is Houston native and former Broncos player/OC Gary Kubiak, who brought the ZBS that drew me to the Broncos with him to Houston. Its defensive coordinator is Shanahans predecessor as Denver head coach: Bum Phillips' son Wade, an Orange, TX native just like his father. Bum's 89 now, but was still in the owners box to see the Texans first playoff game last year. It's very hard to articlute how much it would fulfill my childhood dreams to watch Houston FINALLY win a Super Bowl with Bum watching and Wade and Kubiak on the sidelines. All three of them know, because they know the story of Luv Ya Blue better than almost anyone could.

I'm focusing on the fact the Houston and Denver are the favorites to earn the top two seeds, a first round bye and homefield against anyone but each other; frankly, I much prefer the AFCCG be in Houston, where I think the game would be close, because the Gulf Coast indoor team would have an uphill battle in freezing Mile High air. I loathe all the other potential AFC playoff teams (I actually don't mind the Jets, but they're only technically contenders and I can't stand the entire Ryan familly.) Pittsburgh is... Pittsburgh, the team that beat Houston in two AFCCGs and Dallas in two Super Bowls, consecutively in '78 (incidentally preventing an All Texas Super Bowl.) I grew up despising Bernie Kosar, Kevin Mack, Boomer Esiason and Icky Woods, and the Ravens are just the Browns in a different city with a Pro Bowl murderer playing MLB. The Cheatriots are the Cheatriots, and Tom Brady last year joined Elway as the only QBs to start 5 Super Bowls; I really don't want to see him set a new record with 6.

Denver v. Houston in the AFCCG; my heart is set on it. One of them must lose such a game, and that will be bittersweet for me, but as long as both demolish everyone else I'll be happy.

WOW! Pretty good memory, Joel. I remember bits and pieces of the Oilers especially Earl Campbell and Bum Philips. I grew up near Lake Charles, La.

BRONCOS/Houston do have history.

[Joel]

WOW! Pretty good memory, Joel. I remember bits and pieces of the Oilers especially Earl Campbell and Bum Philips. I grew up near Lake Charles, La.

BRONCOS/Houston do have history.
Er, let's just say I haven't always been an Elway fan (what was it, 4th and 20 in '91?) I have horrible memories of The Comeback: I was visiting friends who can't stand football, but talked them into letting me watch the game when they had to briefly go out for a couple hours, but ONLY while they were gone. They got back just a few minutes after Bubba McDowell ran the pick back at the start of the second half to give Houston a 35-3 lead, so I figured turning it off was no big deal. But something kept nagging at me, and I kept nagging at them, until we wound up turning it back on to find Houston up by just 11 at the end of the third quarter. The rest, as they say, is history.... :(

[Poet]

Playoffs are locked up for the AFC if Balt wins.

[BroncoWave]

Playoffs are locked up for the AFC if Balt wins.

Well the playoff teams are all locked up. Baltimore winning will clinch the division, but not the seeding. Denver and NE are both alive for the 1 seed still.

[Poet]

It ain't changing. My crystal ball tells me so.

[Joel]

It ain't changing. My crystal ball tells me so.
Hope you're right, but unless Schaub remembers how to play football (if he ever knew) Houston can't beat Notre Dame in IN, much less the Colts. I like 'em, but worry about any team whose QB's the weak link.

Denver looks good for a bye though; I'd just feel a lot better if Houston got one, too (and NE didn't.)

[DenBronx]

I would much rather see NE get that extra game during the wild card than Denver taking the #1 seed. Houston, Balt, Cin, Indy...none of those teams make me worry.


Anyone know if Willis will be back before the AFCCG???

[pulse]

Houston is going to have the #1 seed. Indianapolis has nothing to play for next week. There is no way Chuck plays Luck more than a few quarters, if Luck plays at all. Houston will play their starters until the game is in hand so they can be sure to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. So the #1 seed will be Houston and the #2 seed will be Denver if we win out. I am ignoring the #1, but the #2, #3 and #4 seeds will not be decided until next week: Baltimore already beat New England head-to-head. New England needs to win to make sure they clinch the #3; otherwise, a New England loss and a Baltimore win will allow the Ravens to clinch the #3. If Denver loses to the Chiefs, then it's a 3-way tie for the #2 and a crap-shoot. We beat Baltimore head-to-head, Baltimore beat New England head-to-head and New England beat Denver head-to-head. I'll have to think about that one.

[DenBronx]

I want Houston #1 seed and NE #4 seed. That way they most likely will have to play each other. I think we could go to Houston and win and I think we can beat NE in Denver.

[Nomad]

Denver shouldn't be scared to play any team.....next team up and win!

[DenBronx]

z - Denver - 12-3
San Diego - 6-9
Oakland - 4-11
Kansas City - 2-13

That is all....lol

[Joel]

Houston is going to have the #1 seed. Indianapolis has nothing to play for next week. There is no way Chuck plays Luck more than a few quarters, if Luck plays at all. Houston will play their starters until the game is in hand so they can be sure to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. So the #1 seed will be Houston and the #2 seed will be Denver if we win out. I am ignoring the #1, but the #2, #3 and #4 seeds will not be decided until next week: Baltimore already beat New England head-to-head. New England needs to win to make sure they clinch the #3; otherwise, a New England loss and a Baltimore win will allow the Ravens to clinch the #3. If Denver loses to the Chiefs, then it's a 3-way tie for the #2 and a crap-shoot. We beat Baltimore head-to-head, Baltimore beat New England head-to-head and New England beat Denver head-to-head. I'll have to think about that one.
No, Baltimore is 2 games plus the tiebreak behind Houston and us, so they can't catch either. They'd get the #3 seed with a win and NE loss, because they have the head-to-head, but otherwise they're the #4 seed.

Conversely, NE is only 1 game MINUS the tiebreak behind Houston and us, and 1 game MINUS the tiebreak ahead of Baltimore, so a win gives them the #1 seed with a Texans AND Broncos loss, the #2 seed with a Texans OR Broncos loss and the #3 seed with a Texans AND Broncos win. A loss make them the #3 seed if Baltimore loses and the #4 if they win.

Denver trails Houston by only the tiebreak, leads NE by 1 game MINUS the tiebreak and leads Baltimore by 2 games plus the tiebreak. A win gives us the #1 seed with a Texans loss and the #2 with a Texans win. A loss gives us the #2 seed with a NE loss and the #3 with a NE win.

Houston leads Denver by the tiebreak, NE by 1 game MINUS the tiebreak and Baltimore by 2 games plus the tiebreak. A win gives them the #1 seed. A loss gives them the #1 seed with a Broncos AND Pats loss, the #2 with a Broncos OR Pats loss and the #3 with a Broncos AND Pats win.

That can be checked here http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine but I'm pretty sure of my math. Don't root for Indy so we get the #1 seed, root for us AND Houston to deny NE a bye and divisional home game.

[MasterShake]

I want Houston #1 seed and NE #4 seed. That way they most likely will have to play each other. I think we could go to Houston and win and I think we can beat NE in Denver.

I agree with your logic, but as a fan I hope that the Broncos aren't afraid of anyone. After what they did to Baltimore in Baltimore I like our chances against anyone, anywhere. But if we are going to be playing in the playoffs anyway, might as well be at home both times. Hoisting that AFC Championship trophy at Mile Hi would be sooo much better! :lol:

I hope that the Broncos aren't thinking like an NBA team were they jockey for seeding at the end of the year to get the powder puff schedule. I hope they have a killer instinct that like it or not, you will have to beat them to take away their shot at the Super Bowl. We didn't back into the playoffs this year, we steamrolled and I hope we keep crushing heads all the way to a Lombardi.

[TXBRONC]

I agree with your logic, but as a fan I hope that the Broncos aren't afraid of anyone. After what they did to Baltimore in Baltimore I like our chances against anyone, anywhere. But if we are going to be playing in the playoffs anyway, might as well be at home both times. Hoisting that AFC Championship trophy at Mile Hi would be sooo much better! :lol:

I hope that the Broncos aren't thinking like an NBA team were they jockey for seeding at the end of the year to get the powder puff schedule. I hope they have a killer instinct that like it or not, you will have to beat them to take away their shot at the Super Bowl. We didn't back into the playoffs this year, we steamrolled and I hope we keep crushing heads all the way to a Lombardi.

There is no reason for Denver to be afraid of any of these teams they can hang with any of the teams in the AFC.

[TXBRONC]

Is it too much to ask the family to be nice to each other on Christmas Eve? This is why we can't have nice things... it doesn't help that Claymore is passed out on the couch.

Post was deleted.