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12-14-2012, 01:23 PM
Doc Bear of "It's All Over, Fat Man" (http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/broncos/entry/has-elvis-dumervil-been-effective-in-2012) provides a super analysis on Dumervil today.

Here's part of it:


In a column posted yesterday at Pro Football Focus, Ben Stockwell suggests that, outside of favorable matchups against the Chargers, Elvis Dumervil hasn’t done a very good job of rushing the passer this season.


It even discusses the idea that potential opponents might just try and shut down Miller (good luck there) and let the rest of the line try and beat them. I think that in this case, even PFF’s own stats show this to be a weak argument. So does the film.


In this explanation, I used some numbers that I took out of PFF's own website - an article from earlier in the week on pass rushing productivity on third and fourth downs. According to PFF, Miller is second in the league in total late down pressures, which isn’t surprising. Who’s tied for tenth? Elvis Dumervil, the player who supposedly isn’t performing well. This ignores, incidentally, the fact that Von and Elvis have each forced six fumbles - which only serves to expand the impact of their pressures.


What I think it really shows is that with Von third in overall sacks, leading the NFL in sacks on third or fourth down, and second in the NFL in late down pressures, the number of times that Doom (or any other lineman or LB) has an opportunity to score them has dropped accordingly. That’s not rocket science. Let's face it, Von Miller may be the fastest outside linebacker around the corner in the NFL today, so beating him to the QB is quite an accomplishment. Doom’s impact remains high - he’s just not at the supra-elite level that Miller is. Few players are. But he’s still a top DE.


I got a laugh out of Derek Wolfe's recent explanation to a reporter’s query of why he hasn't had more sacks this year. Wolfe said he's not only trying to get to the quarterback before he can get the pass off, but he's also trying to get there before Von or Doom does. He noted that it’s not so easy to do, and he’s right. Derek’s also taking up multiple blockers on a lot of plays, which creates more opportunities for Miller and Doom. That’s just good football. Line play isn’t always a one-on-one issue - it’s a group effort, and Miller (or Doom) will be among the first to say so.


To me, this a good example of where a limited analysis, without a comprehensive and realistic perspective of the team, scheme, and roster can give a twisted view of the player’s value. It’s also taking a single game and suggesting that it’s a trend. During the Broncos' eight-game win streak, though, Doom’s had five sacks, four QB hits,13 hurries, and four forced fumbles.


That’s bad?

The rest is a must read: http://tinyurl.com/czclmvf
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BroncoNut
12-14-2012, 01:38 PM
I beleive that he has. he may not have the sack numbers this season, but he's definitley pressureing, disrupting on a consistent basis

shank
12-14-2012, 01:47 PM
he would be putting offenses in terrible situations consistently if refs would call even half of the times he's held. it really seems like they've decided to just ignore it when people hook his neck, which happens almost every play he goes for the edge rush.

SR
12-14-2012, 02:40 PM
I have noticed a marked improvement against the run for Elvis. Like the article states, Elvis isn't going to get as many sacks because Von is SO fast to the QB.

Ravage!!!
12-14-2012, 02:46 PM
I think he has. I think it makes the blocking assignments that much more difficult for teams, and the QB can't simply "move to his left" with Doom coming from that side...maybe not as fast, but the clock in their head is SPINNING. Doom's ball slap is something I always watch for as well.

Cugel
12-14-2012, 03:22 PM
Dumervil had 17 sacks as an OLB in a 3-4. He's a smaller player and is really better suited to that than to playing DE. He's a good DE, but not a dominating one.

Denver plays a 4-3 and lacks a dominant inside DT to pressure the QB. They do have Mitch Unrein playing well, and Wolfe is having a nice season at LDE/DT. But, neither is great. Wolfe will have to bulk up some if he's to emerge as a standout talent at DL.

He can do that. It's wildly premature to expect amazing production from a rookie and criticize someone when you don't get it. But, improving the DL remains the top priority for next off-season.

Doom is doing fine. I doubt they worry about him at all. He will probably finish the season with about 10 sacks and 6 to 8 forced fumbles, which is a good season for any RDE, especially in this defense.

Poet
12-14-2012, 03:24 PM
He is a very good pass rusher. He is getting older, changed positions several times and is outshined by Von Miller. I think he's still good.

NightTerror218
12-14-2012, 03:36 PM
I was reading an article that was talking about Miller was getting to the QB right before Wolfe and Doomer would. Miller was quoted that both of them were right there with him as he sacked the QB a few times.

its like a race to the QB and miller is just faster to him.

Cugel
12-14-2012, 03:42 PM
I was reading an article that was talking about Miller was getting to the QB right before Wolfe and Doomer would. Miller was quoted that both of them were right there with him as he sacked the QB a few times.

its like a race to the QB and miller is just faster to him.

That's quite true, but you shouldn't read too much into it.

There's a BIG difference between having 17 sacks and leading the entire NFL and having ten sacks -- which is a nice number, but nothing special. With 3 more weeks to play, there are 8 guys with 10 or more sacks in the NFL.

Currently Doom is tied for 14th in the league with 8 sacks. However, his 6 FFs tie him for 1st among NFL DL with Charles Johnson.

Obviously, Doom would be better suited to being an OLB in a 3-4 where the beefy DTs kept the OL off him and he could just run around and make plays, rather than having to come up all the time in run-support and have a huge OT leaning on him the whole game.

That just isn't the type of defense Denver runs. So, his numbers are going to be down.

He's still effective, his job is different.

Hawgdriver
12-14-2012, 03:49 PM
Doom was hurt a bit during the Nov 11 game against Carolina. May have had some impact on his stats and effectiveness. And he's getting held too often. Do these analyses count "holding sacks"? He should have more than he's getting.

Hey, it's a good Broncos defense against the run and the pass. Doom is playing over 90% of downs, forcing turnovers and winning football games. These are the things you talk about when your team is 10-3 with a great defense. That a star pass rusher just isn't *quite* as dominating as the #1 defensive player in the league. :laugh:

Ravage!!!
12-14-2012, 03:50 PM
8 guys in the NFL that have 10+ sacks, one (other) being on the same team as Doom. That means there are 6 other teams (outside of Denver) in the entire NFL that have a single player that reaches 10+ sacks. 6 out of a 32 team league. Thats actually special.

NightTerror218
12-14-2012, 03:53 PM
That's quite true, but you shouldn't read too much into it.

There's a BIG difference between having 17 sacks and leading the entire NFL and having ten sacks -- which is a nice number, but nothing special. With 3 more weeks to play, there are 8 guys with 10 or more sacks in the NFL.

Currently Doom is tied for 14th in the league with 8 sacks. However, his 6 FFs tie him for 1st among NFL DL with Charles Johnson.

Obviously, Doom would be better suited to being an OLB in a 3-4 where the beefy DTs kept the OL off him and he could just run around and make plays, rather than having to come up all the time in run-support and have a huge OT leaning on him the whole game.

That just isn't the type of defense Denver runs. So, his numbers are going to be down.

He's still effective, his job is different.

BS, he is doing great. He would have more sacks if Miller was not on the team. That is a fact.

Cugel
12-14-2012, 03:56 PM
BS, he is doing great. He would have more sacks if Miller was not on the team. That is a fact.

:laugh: Since the absence of Von Miller from the 2012 Broncos is a HYPOTHETICAL situation that hasn't happened and won't happen, you can't say "that is a fact" unless you don't know the difference between fact and opinion.

Now THAT is a fact! :laugh:

Dzone
12-14-2012, 04:03 PM
Seems whenever I focus on Dumervils play, he is getting tackled and it rarely gets called. Is it because he is short that the refs let him get held on every play?

Ravage!!!
12-14-2012, 04:04 PM
BS, he is doing great. He would have more sacks if Miller was not on the team. That is a fact.

yeah.. its not a fact. One could counter that if Von wasn't on the team, then it would be easier to double team Doom, thus making it even harder for him.

I think Doom is having a very good year, however. I don't think there is any reason to think he's not been good, and believe that 10+ sacks is fantastic.

NightTerror218
12-14-2012, 05:29 PM
:laugh: Since the absence of Von Miller from the 2012 Broncos is a HYPOTHETICAL situation that hasn't happened and won't happen, you can't say "that is a fact" unless you don't know the difference between fact and opinion.

Now THAT is a fact! :laugh:

I can saw when you can see doom getting there a second after Miller does.

HORSEPOWER 56
12-15-2012, 07:31 AM
Seeing as how Jared Allen has 9 sacks and 1 FF (22 sacks last year), and Jason Pierre Paul has 6.5 sacks and 1 FF (16.5 sacks last year), I think Doom is doing just fine compared to the preeminent 4-3 DEs in the league this year - stats wise. Every year is different when it comes to the things officiating crews throw flags for or allow. Both Elvis and Von had been held a lot this year, and so have many of the elite pass rushers.

The fact that 6 of Doom's 8 sacks is a FF, is an awesome stat. Sacks are great, but turnovers change games. I'll take a couple less sacks to have more turnovers. ;)

Dapper Dan
12-15-2012, 09:54 AM
Doom might be a better LB. It's more noticeable when a LB is held.

He is doing great and has been doing great. He gets about 10 sacks per season. He's already in the top 100, after 6 seasons. If he keeps the pace for only 6 more seasons, he will be up near the top 10 of all time.

Spiritguy
12-15-2012, 01:57 PM
Here's another article (http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/broncos/entry/fat-camp-why-elvis-dumervil-has-simplified-his-pass-rush-repertoire) at IAOFM by Ted Bartlett this time discussing the same topic.


Happy Friday, friends. We got a question about the productivity of Elvis Dumervil from a reader the other day, and along with Doc (http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/broncos/entry/has-elvis-dumervil-been-effective-in-2012), I am coming off the other edge to help answer it. It’s hard to contain a rush that’s coming off of both sides.Doc took the position that Elvis has fine numbers, and I agree with him completely. I’m going to come from the schematic angle, and talk about how team strategy is directly feeding into his numbers, and the tactics he’s employing.

If I use the term Wide-9, what does that mean to you? Over the last couple of years, NFL talking heads have decided that it was a scheme that was being employed in Philadelphia. In the true sense of the term, Wide-9 simply means that a defensive player is aligned on the outside shoulder of a second TE, if there were one. He’s very far outside the offensive tackle.

Simple Jaded
12-15-2012, 07:40 PM
Dumervil is one of the best pass rushers in the league, the only reason he's not getting more sacks is the presence of Miller. Besides the notion that Miller beats him to the QB there is also the fact that Dumervil was at his best when they moved him around, with Miller they don't get him on RT's as often.

I still think he belongs in a 34.......

topscribe
12-16-2012, 06:52 PM
Here's another article (http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/broncos/entry/fat-camp-why-elvis-dumervil-has-simplified-his-pass-rush-repertoire) at IAOFM by Ted Bartlett this time discussing the same topic.
I was in the process of quoting this article when I spotted that you had already
done so. It shows that Dumervil actually takes on the function of LB during much
of the game.

Here is the part that reveals Ted Bartlett's take on that:


Pro Football Focus, which is a site I respect, doesn’t account for scheme or specific assignments well enough, in my opinion. I suspect that their position is that they can’t possibly know what a player is assigned to do, or what the goals of a scheme are, so they kind of stick to the idea that there are two different defensive schemes – the 4-3 and the 3-4. If a player is moving forward, he’s meant to sack the QB, and they’re judging whether he was successful in his efforts to do so. If he’s moving backward, he’s meant to cover somebody, and they’re judging whether he was successful in his efforts to do that.


Of course, that’s all a vast oversimplification, and I think they’d admit that. What they’re doing is better than what anybody else is doing, after all. When I know that certain players are being asked to sacrifice to the larger good, though, that’s an adjustment factor that is present in my evaluations, and doesn’t seem to be in theirs.


Dumervil and Wolfe aren’t being asked to do the same things as DEs in a more run-of-the-mill “4-3.” They’re not even being asked to do the same things as each other, not even close. Wolfe is effectively used like a 3-4 DE, and Dumervil is used as a speed rusher.

The entire article is a very good read - http://tinyurl.com/cc5r9q8
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