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dogfish
07-12-2009, 01:57 AM
And my crystal ball is all fogged up. . . Seriously, it’s been forever since the last time the Broncos headed into a season with this many unknowns. I guess that’s what happens when you have the same head coach for fourteen years. How many did Detroit and Oakland go through in that time? Although even the most stable NFL franchises experience noticeable personnel turnover from season to season, in Denver so many things had been consistent from year to year, so much so that fans really had come to take them for granted. Mike Shanahan and his scripted plays. The West Coast offense and the zone blocking scheme. A strong running game. Fast, undersized linebackers. And unfortunately, too much of the poor drafting, cronyism, questionable free agent signings, bad defensive line play, blowout losses in big games and team collapses down the stretch that finally brought Shanahan’s tenure to an end.

Now that’s all gone, the good along with the bad and the ugly. Gone with it are Jay Cutler and a large portion of last year’s roster and coaching staff. The other thing that’s gone is any reliable basis for prediction regarding this year’s Broncos. How do you even guess what’s going to happen with a team that has a new, first-time head coach, new offensive playcaller and defensive coordinator, half a dozen new position coaches, and could potentially begin the season with as few as nine returning starters from last year’s squad? Especially when the team will be running completely new offensive and defensive schemes as well as a new base defensive alignment? Yea, good luck with that one.

The one thing that can be said with accuracy is that the 2009 edition of the Denver Broncos is going to look quite a bit different than former incarnations. Whether that’s a good thing or not remains to be seen. The beatdowns suffered in crunch time over recent seasons won’t be missed, but the almost guaranteed winning record sure could be if things don’t fall right with rookie head coach Josh McDaniels and his grandiose and unconventional schemes. Owner Pat Bowlen took a real chance firing Shanahan. Many felt that it needed to be done, but plenty of owners would have been more than content to win more games than they lost and keep their stadium filled. We’ll see shortly if Bowlen is an uncompromising visionary, unwilling to settle for mediocrity, a dollars-first business man who was tired of paying Shanahan a huge salary for mediocre results and ready to move on to a new, more profitable business model, or merely an increasingly senile and disconnected drunk.

The answer rides on how well McDaniels executes his ambitious plan. Bowlen could have played it safe, and brought in a defensive-minded head coach to shore up the team’s most glaring weakness while leaving a talent-laden and rapidly improving young offense largely intact. Instead, he succumbed to the lure (and envy) of “the Patriot Way,” and rolled the dice on an unproven supposed boy wonder from New England. McDaniels promptly dismantled a large portion of the team and started rebuilding more or less from the ground up. Coordinators, position coaches and starting players were sent packing with equal abandon, culminating in the controversial Cutlergate fiasco that resulted in the trade of the 25-year-old franchise quarterback. McDaniels also puzzled plenty of league observers, both in free agency when he remodeled the team’s secondary while largely ignoring an exceptionally suspect front seven, and again in the draft where he burned through picks with a complete disregard for conventional wisdom, sacrificing value to make not one but four aggressive moves up. Though some of the moves seem haphazard on casual inspection, it actually does seem that he has a plan. And soon enough, we’ll get to find out whether it was a good one or not.

In a best case scenario, he’ll prove that he really is smarter than the aforementioned conventional wisdom, and his willingness to sacrifice some talent in exchange for a team-first mentality will result in a tougher, more cohesive group of players on the field and replicate, at least to some degree, the success that the system produced in New England. Maybe this year’s Broncos really will come out as a hard-nosed, blue collar bunch that’s hungry to win and willing to do whatever’s necessary to make it happen. Kyle Orton will realize the potential that he flashed in college, flourishing in McDaniels’ offensive scheme with more talent around him than he had in Chicago and proving that his winning record as an NFL starter is no fluke.

Brandon Marshall will eventually report to camp, healthy and ready to work, and put together a dominant season as he plays for a new contract. Eddie Royal will kill it in Welker’s role, and McDaniels will create mismatches all over the field with Tony Scheffler, the dynamic receiving tight end he never had in New England. Our young offensive line will just continue to get better. Bolstered by Daniel Graham and Richard Quinn, they’ll plow open holes for a tough and functional group of backs led by Rookie of the Year Knowshon Moreno. Peyton Hillis will crack skulls as the punishing back end of one of the league’s better one-two punches, as well as excelling as a short-yardage specialist and catching fifty-plus passes out of the backfield. We’ll have weapons all over the field, and Orton will manage the game with smart decisions, spread the ball around and limit mistakes. Our offense will have exceptional balance with the ability to spread the field with four wide and the shotgun formation, or line up and play smashmouth with two tight ends. McDaniels will wow the league with his playcalling, seamlessly integrating all these diverse options into a productive and efficient attack.

You can’t ask for miracles on defense, but in this scenario we’ll at least find that we did enough to improve to a middle of the pack unit that will give us a chance to win, while laying the building blocks for further improvement in the future. Mc Daniels’ analysis, that tackling in the secondary was a major cause of problems last year, will be proven correct. The veteran DBs we brought in from Miami will bring some of that defensive squad’s hard-hitting mentality and professionalism, and the young guns from the draft will make gamechanging plays with their ball skills. Brian Dawkins will have something left in the tank, making some of his trademark big hits while giving us the field general that we’ve lacked since Al Wilson went down. The older guys will add accountability and work ethic to a unit that has folded shamefully under pressure in the past. Champ will be Champ. He’ll come back fully healthy and pick up where he left off before the injury, when he was shutting down Randy Moss.

It’s too much to ask that the front seven become an impact unit, but maybe, just maybe a new coaching staff can get an adequate performance out of this group. The D-line will at least prove capable of being effective cloggers and occupying blockers so the back seven can do their thing relatively unhindered. Fields and Kenny Peterson will respond to their promotion to fulltime starter, and Marcus Thomas will pack on the pounds and continue to improve. Chris Baker will show that he’s past his off-field problems and perform like the high draft pick that many felt he could have been based on talent alone.

D.J. Williams will use his considerable physical gifts to transition effectively to yet another position. Andra Davis will provide a reliable tackling machine. Spencer Larsen’s grit and instincts will play well on the inside of the 3-4, and he’ll challenge Davis for a starting spot by the end of the year. Elvis Dumervil will flourish rushing the passer from a two-point stance instead of banging with offensive tackles every play, and return to the double digit sack form he displayed in 2007. Mike Mayock will be right about Robert Ayers, and he’ll show that he is indeed the best defensive player from this year’s draft class, duplicating his college success at playing tough against the run and making plays behind the line of scrimmage. Ayers will also improve on his college sack numbers to add some much-needed punch to our anemic pass rush, giving us a versatile weapon that can be used effectively all over the field. Maybe a new regime and a few years worth of experience will even produce some results from Jarvis Moss or Tim Crowder. Well, okay. . . let’s not get too carried away here.

Only a blind homer, drunk on unfounded optimism and cheap whisky would expect this defense to turn into the type of unit that can win games on its own, but maybe they can at least display enough heart and toughness to be competitive, force some turnovers here and there, and generally just not give up the ass like a five dollar whore on two-for-one night down on Colfax. Even some marginal improvement could go a long ways at this point.

Same goes for the special teams. Maybe Prater comes back and plays the whole year the way he started ’08, drilling 50-plus yarders and pounding kickoffs out the back of the end zone. Eddie Royal builds on the flashes he showed last year as a returner, and gets a chance to really show how dangerous he can be when he actually gets a few blocks to spring him to some open field. Guys like David Bruton and Darrell Reid bring some nastiness to the coverage units, and we stop getting torched by all-too-frequent breakdowns that leave the opposition starting drives around midfield.

None of these things are impossible, or even all that improbable on an individual basis. Things would have to shake out just about perfectly for it to all come together like that, but it can happen. Ask the Atlanta Falcons or the Miami Dolphins.

dogfish
07-12-2009, 02:01 AM
Or, maybe the nay-sayers are right. Maybe McDaniels is in way over his head, and he winds up looking more like Bobby Petrino than Mike Smith. In a worst case scenario, Broncos fans find out just how much Cutler really was carrying the team last year as he shines in Chicago, while Kyle Orton looks like. . . well, Kyle Orton. We find out that his career completion percentage of just over 55 can’t be blamed on his receivers, and his lack of ideal arm strength and consistent accuracy lead to a decline in production from our receiving targets. The pass protection regresses with a less mobile quarterback, especially straight up the middle where Casey Weigmann is starting to show his age. Brandon Marshall gets traded, and the rest of the receiving corps suffers from his absence—especially Eddie Royal, who doesn’t prove capable of consistently beating the other team’s top corner and playing through double coverage. Knowshon looks very average trying to run against stacked fronts because our horizontal offense can’t stretch the field. The rest of our running backs are a bunch of aging stiffs. McDaniels finds that he isn’t up to calling plays on top of all the head coach’s other responsibilities. Our offense proves incapable of generating big plays—our red zone woes continue, while our efficiency between the twenties declines.

In this scenario, the defense proves to be just as bad as some expect—in other words, just as bad as last year. We find that we really don’t have the right personnel to run the 3-4 effectively. Ryan McBean failed to catch on in Pittsburgh, even as a reserve, because he simply isn’t very good. Ronald Fields was a backup on a weak San Francisco defense for a reason. Kenny Peterson is a ‘tweener that shouldn’t be starting, and Marcus Thomas just isn’t suited as a two-gap player. Chris Baker and Peresclue went undrafted because they aren’t NFL-caliber players.

D.J. Williams is dazed and confused by yet another position switch, and his inability to fight through trash renders him ineffective in the 30-front. Andra Davis is a washed-up, drag down tackler, and Spencer Larsen looks like a 6th round pick who lacks NFL quickness. Elvis Dumervil lacks the change of direction skills to play standing up—he looks lost in coverage and can’t produce any more pass rush than he did last season. Ayers plays like a rookie. Darrell Reid looks like what he is, an undersized one-gap defensive tackle miscast as a rush ‘backer. Moss and Crowder play as well at linebacker as they did at defensive end. Our run defense bears a striking resemblance to a sieve, and our pass rush continues to routinely allow opposing quarterbacks enough time to read a Russian novel.

If this comes to pass, all the fortifications in the secondary could prove to be useless. We find out that it truly isn’t rocket science, and that no defensive backs can cover the entire field for five to ten seconds on any given play. Dawkins’ coverage deficiencies get exposed, and we see why Bill Parcells (a guy that knows a bit about defense) was willing to let Hill and Goodman walk. Champ comes back a step slow, and the secondary as a whole looks old and gets burned consistently by younger and more athletic receivers.

It’s proven conclusively that for reasons unknown to science, it’s simply not possible to play good special teams at altitude. Prater plays all of this year the way he finished the last one, and our punting makes us long for the days of Micah Knorr. The return units prove as incapable of opening lanes as they were last year, and the coverage teams get beaten like a kid in a sweatshop.

Things quickly go from bad to worse in Broncoland, as the offense regresses while the defense and special teams show no signs of improvement. Watching the so-called defense makes us feel like we’re stuck in Groundhog Day, as they get bent over and brutally had every time they take the field, much like last year. The offense proves incapable of generating enough scoring to win as they constantly play from behind. We win three or four games, and at the end of the season angry peasants storm Dove Valley with torches and pitchforks, and ride McDaniels out of town on a rail.

Nothing about this scenario is any less possible than the last one. The reality, like most things in life, quite probably will lie somewhere in between these two polar opposites. It’s wide open right now, all up in the air. It’s a whole new era, and the forces of Change have been at work, big time. Are McDaniels and Bowlen bold and courageous, or arrogant and stupid? Time will tell. The only thing we know for sure at this point is that the stakes are high, and only the stout of heart or the criminally insane can say with a straight face that they anticipate finding the answers to those questions without a bit of trepidation. Prognostication is a tricky business at best, and this issue is particularly thorny. Nostradamus wouldn’t touch it if you gave him three-to-one on his money. Only the type of dumb brutes typically employed by ESPN really feel comfortable putting their credibility on the line with this little information to go on, and that’s only because they hire halfwits that don’t have any credibility to begin with. Any properly functioning Magic Eight Ball and a bottle of Jim Beam should give you an equally reliable analysis.

Reidman
07-12-2009, 02:30 AM
Dog I got to be totally honest when I say I am drunk beyond any reasonable doubt right now but just reading your commentary gives me new found hope for this season....seriously...

You make a good argument with the fact that so many seasons before this one have been predictable. New Coach, new QB and new personnel, I guess anything's possible...

WARHORSE
07-12-2009, 03:15 AM
Couldnt have said it better when it comes to the opening thread.


To me, the offensive line is gonna be the factor that no one is looking closely at that is gonna enable us to be a very methodical, unstoppable offense.


I think we can run the ball witht he best of them with these RBs on our roster.

Buckhalter, Moreno and Jordan are all better than anyone we had at tailback when we started the year.

Hillis is just the 5th dimension when it comes to playmakers the defense is gonna have to focus on at all times.

girler
07-12-2009, 03:47 AM
Any properly functioning Magic Eight Ball and a bottle of Jim Beam should give you an equally reliable analysis.

Hear hear!!! :beer:

ursamajor
07-12-2009, 06:19 AM
No offense, but that is the longest post I have ever seen.

girler
07-12-2009, 09:50 AM
No offense, but that is the longest post I have ever seen.

It's not a post, it's an article. Dog is one of the writers for this forum.

ursamajor
07-14-2009, 03:08 PM
Gotcha

G_Money
07-14-2009, 03:58 PM
Hang out longer, ursa. We post like that around here from time to time.

I blame the wordy mofos. :D

Nice stuff dog. :salute:

~G

Broncospsycho77
07-14-2009, 04:40 PM
I agree.

Too many unknowns. Usually that means bad stuff, but who knew that Chad Pennington was still good last year?

girler
07-14-2009, 06:03 PM
I agree.

Too many unknowns. Usually that means bad stuff, but who knew that Chad Pennington was still good last year?

You're so cute psycho, I just want to pinch your cheeks!

Keep it up (and be right!) and I might just let you breastfeed.

dogfish
07-14-2009, 07:47 PM
I agree.

Too many unknowns. Usually that means bad stuff, but who knew that Chad Pennington was still good last year?

not the jets, apparently. . . :laugh:

Hawgdriver
07-14-2009, 09:23 PM
Brandon Marshall will eventually report to camp, healthy and ready to work, and put together a dominant season as he plays for a new contract. Eddie Royal will kill it in Welker’s role, and McDaniels will create mismatches all over the field with Tony Scheffler, the dynamic receiving tight end he never had in New England. Our young offensive line will just continue to get better. Bolstered by Daniel Graham and Richard Quinn, they’ll plow open holes for a tough and functional group of backs led by Rookie of the Year Knowshon Moreno. Peyton Hillis will crack skulls as the punishing back end of one of the league’s better one-two punches, as well as excelling as a short-yardage specialist and catching fifty-plus passes out of the backfield. We’ll have weapons all over the field, and Orton will manage the game with smart decisions, spread the ball around and limit mistakes. Our offense will have exceptional balance with the ability to spread the field with four wide and the shotgun formation, or line up and play smashmouth with two tight ends. McDaniels will wow the league with his playcalling, seamlessly integrating all these diverse options into a productive and efficient attack.

This gave me a buzz. I don't think it's often that prose makes you tipsy.

broncofaninfla
07-15-2009, 11:40 AM
Good stuff Dog!