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View Full Version : Denver Post: Broncos didn't select "reaches" in NFL draft!



Cugel
05-30-2012, 11:25 AM
I agree with some of this article but not all of it.


Elway and the team's personnel staff didn't have a player with a first-round grade remaining on the board as their pick approached at No. 25.
(http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_20734961/broncos-didnt-select-reaches-nfl-draft)
In retrospect, and in recapping the draft with many teams in recent days and weeks, the group of players the Broncos selected almost universally had interest from other teams in the area where the Broncos selected them.

So, in terms of how many of their peers in the league stacked the board, they didn't have any enormous reaches. Running back Ronnie Hillman — the Broncos selected him in the third round, 67th overall — may be the team's biggest reach if you're comparing where the Broncos took him with where other personnel directors had him on their boards, especially since Denver traded up to get him.

But heading into the draft, the Broncos were very high on Hillman because of his explosiveness and his age — at 20, he may have been the youngest player on the draft board. The board was thinning quickly at running back at that point in the draft, and running backs had been the final two picks of the opening round, which surprised some, so the teams that wanted one were starting to believe they were going to have to make a move as the third round opened

I don't think Hillman was a reach at all. I've heard experts who think Hillman was legitimately in the top 4 or 5 RBs taken in the draft. And after Trent Richardson, there really was no consensus #2-#5 RB, so teams are really going with how their scouts think a RB will fit into the team.

Hillman was the 6th RB taken, and the Broncos could easily have liked him better than any of the 2nd round RBs.

In any case they were locked into drafting Wolfe at #36 because they couldn't wait until the 3rd round to get him, and they were locked into getting Osweiler at #57 (they certainly couldn't wait to get Osweiler in the 3rd round either).

If they wanted to take Osweiler with their #57 pick, they had to get Wolfe with their first pick. He would almost certainly not have been available late in the 3rd and he might well have been taken sometime after #36.

Since the Steelers were potentially interested in Wolfe, they might have taken him at #56, which would have meant that they grabbed TWO players Denver wanted just one pick before the Broncos could get them. (They grabbed G David DeCastro at #24 just before the Broncos pick at #25).

Of course, if the Broncos hadn't been determined to spend a pick on Osweiler they could have drafted someone else at #36, then moved up a few spots to get ahead of the Steelers and grab Wolfe somewhere between #36 and #57.

But, wanting Osweiler totally limited their ability to maneuver. He wouldn't have slid much farther.

I'm convinced Hillman will emerge as an every down back in which case that pick was an excellent one, and not a reach at all.

Teams are going away from drafting RBs in the first round, because of the shortness of their careers (high impact, short duration). So, the 3rd round is NOT too late to take a RB, it's just about perfect if you can find a really good one there.

The only alternative that I can see to the way they drafted would have been to stay at #31 and draft RB Doug Martin there, and then move up from #57 a few spots to grab Wolfe before Pittsburgh could get him. That would have prevented them from getting Osweiler though, unless they spent the rest of their draft to move back into the second round for Osweiler.

But, they might not have been able to do that anyway. And they probably would have given up the chance to get Bolden. And they needed a KR and additional CB.

iLands
05-30-2012, 12:05 PM
Teams are going away from drafting RBs in the first round, because of the shortness of their careers.


While this becomes more and more true, we're not there yet. How many people were surprised that three RBs went in the first this draft? Hell, how many fans and analysts had three RBs going in the first round? The NFL doesn't value the position as much as it had it recent memory, but the NFL seems to value it greater than most observers at the moment.

Cugel
05-30-2012, 12:21 PM
While this becomes more and more true, we're not there yet. How many people were surprised that three RBs went in the first this draft? Hell, how many fans and analysts had three RBs going in the first round? The NFL doesn't value the position as much as it had it recent memory, but the NFL seems to value it greater than most observers at the moment.

While you're technically correct that 3 RBs went in the first round, two went with the final two picks of round 1. Everybody knew that Trent Richardson was a top 10 pick, and he was.

Aside from that, it's basically a crap-shoot where the next RBs fall -- late 1st or early 2nd round. And there was no consensus as to who the next best RBs really were.

Is Doug Martin a better prospect than Hillman? Probably in the estimation of most GMs, but the Broncos might well have preferred Hillman for their offense.

(I don't know that for certain because they didn't say), but they did pass on Martin with the chance to draft him.

Personally, I'm happy with the Hillman pick, and I'd far rather see Wolfe in the second than Martin in the first and Osweiler in the 2nd. And NO DT!

Considering how porous the middle of their DL is now that Bunkley absconded to the Saints, they had BETTER draft a DT!

My only point was that you can still get a decent RB in the 3rd round and I think the Broncos got one. I'm a LOT happier about that pick than the Moreno head-scratcher! If Hillman becomes a starter (which is possible over the next few years) then that is a great pick.

I like that pick better than all the others (although the Bolden pick in the 4th might turn out to be equally good if Bolden becomes the starting KR and manages to contribute at CB).

Simple Jaded
05-30-2012, 01:48 PM
Well did they have a player with a 2nd round grade left on their board?.......

DenBronx
05-30-2012, 01:55 PM
Uhhhh the whole draft was a reach but I still like who we took. Maybe I don't like where we took them but I still like who we chose to get. I can also understand why the Broncos didn't want to take a chance on losing Wolfe or Oswieler. They think Wolfe fits the systems much better than guys they could have got in the 1st so why not wait and Brock is the long term plan. So, they might have reached but I don't think they missed. Not a sexy draft but looks to be a solid draft and filled alot of needs.

Superchop 7
05-30-2012, 06:59 PM
Historically.....ther average is 2.8 running backs in the first round. (Pretty much on record about the draft)