Cugel
05-30-2012, 11:25 AM
I agree with some of this article but not all of it.
Elway and the team's personnel staff didn't have a player with a first-round grade remaining on the board as their pick approached at No. 25.
(http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_20734961/broncos-didnt-select-reaches-nfl-draft)
In retrospect, and in recapping the draft with many teams in recent days and weeks, the group of players the Broncos selected almost universally had interest from other teams in the area where the Broncos selected them.
So, in terms of how many of their peers in the league stacked the board, they didn't have any enormous reaches. Running back Ronnie Hillman — the Broncos selected him in the third round, 67th overall — may be the team's biggest reach if you're comparing where the Broncos took him with where other personnel directors had him on their boards, especially since Denver traded up to get him.
But heading into the draft, the Broncos were very high on Hillman because of his explosiveness and his age — at 20, he may have been the youngest player on the draft board. The board was thinning quickly at running back at that point in the draft, and running backs had been the final two picks of the opening round, which surprised some, so the teams that wanted one were starting to believe they were going to have to make a move as the third round opened
I don't think Hillman was a reach at all. I've heard experts who think Hillman was legitimately in the top 4 or 5 RBs taken in the draft. And after Trent Richardson, there really was no consensus #2-#5 RB, so teams are really going with how their scouts think a RB will fit into the team.
Hillman was the 6th RB taken, and the Broncos could easily have liked him better than any of the 2nd round RBs.
In any case they were locked into drafting Wolfe at #36 because they couldn't wait until the 3rd round to get him, and they were locked into getting Osweiler at #57 (they certainly couldn't wait to get Osweiler in the 3rd round either).
If they wanted to take Osweiler with their #57 pick, they had to get Wolfe with their first pick. He would almost certainly not have been available late in the 3rd and he might well have been taken sometime after #36.
Since the Steelers were potentially interested in Wolfe, they might have taken him at #56, which would have meant that they grabbed TWO players Denver wanted just one pick before the Broncos could get them. (They grabbed G David DeCastro at #24 just before the Broncos pick at #25).
Of course, if the Broncos hadn't been determined to spend a pick on Osweiler they could have drafted someone else at #36, then moved up a few spots to get ahead of the Steelers and grab Wolfe somewhere between #36 and #57.
But, wanting Osweiler totally limited their ability to maneuver. He wouldn't have slid much farther.
I'm convinced Hillman will emerge as an every down back in which case that pick was an excellent one, and not a reach at all.
Teams are going away from drafting RBs in the first round, because of the shortness of their careers (high impact, short duration). So, the 3rd round is NOT too late to take a RB, it's just about perfect if you can find a really good one there.
The only alternative that I can see to the way they drafted would have been to stay at #31 and draft RB Doug Martin there, and then move up from #57 a few spots to grab Wolfe before Pittsburgh could get him. That would have prevented them from getting Osweiler though, unless they spent the rest of their draft to move back into the second round for Osweiler.
But, they might not have been able to do that anyway. And they probably would have given up the chance to get Bolden. And they needed a KR and additional CB.
Elway and the team's personnel staff didn't have a player with a first-round grade remaining on the board as their pick approached at No. 25.
(http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_20734961/broncos-didnt-select-reaches-nfl-draft)
In retrospect, and in recapping the draft with many teams in recent days and weeks, the group of players the Broncos selected almost universally had interest from other teams in the area where the Broncos selected them.
So, in terms of how many of their peers in the league stacked the board, they didn't have any enormous reaches. Running back Ronnie Hillman — the Broncos selected him in the third round, 67th overall — may be the team's biggest reach if you're comparing where the Broncos took him with where other personnel directors had him on their boards, especially since Denver traded up to get him.
But heading into the draft, the Broncos were very high on Hillman because of his explosiveness and his age — at 20, he may have been the youngest player on the draft board. The board was thinning quickly at running back at that point in the draft, and running backs had been the final two picks of the opening round, which surprised some, so the teams that wanted one were starting to believe they were going to have to make a move as the third round opened
I don't think Hillman was a reach at all. I've heard experts who think Hillman was legitimately in the top 4 or 5 RBs taken in the draft. And after Trent Richardson, there really was no consensus #2-#5 RB, so teams are really going with how their scouts think a RB will fit into the team.
Hillman was the 6th RB taken, and the Broncos could easily have liked him better than any of the 2nd round RBs.
In any case they were locked into drafting Wolfe at #36 because they couldn't wait until the 3rd round to get him, and they were locked into getting Osweiler at #57 (they certainly couldn't wait to get Osweiler in the 3rd round either).
If they wanted to take Osweiler with their #57 pick, they had to get Wolfe with their first pick. He would almost certainly not have been available late in the 3rd and he might well have been taken sometime after #36.
Since the Steelers were potentially interested in Wolfe, they might have taken him at #56, which would have meant that they grabbed TWO players Denver wanted just one pick before the Broncos could get them. (They grabbed G David DeCastro at #24 just before the Broncos pick at #25).
Of course, if the Broncos hadn't been determined to spend a pick on Osweiler they could have drafted someone else at #36, then moved up a few spots to get ahead of the Steelers and grab Wolfe somewhere between #36 and #57.
But, wanting Osweiler totally limited their ability to maneuver. He wouldn't have slid much farther.
I'm convinced Hillman will emerge as an every down back in which case that pick was an excellent one, and not a reach at all.
Teams are going away from drafting RBs in the first round, because of the shortness of their careers (high impact, short duration). So, the 3rd round is NOT too late to take a RB, it's just about perfect if you can find a really good one there.
The only alternative that I can see to the way they drafted would have been to stay at #31 and draft RB Doug Martin there, and then move up from #57 a few spots to grab Wolfe before Pittsburgh could get him. That would have prevented them from getting Osweiler though, unless they spent the rest of their draft to move back into the second round for Osweiler.
But, they might not have been able to do that anyway. And they probably would have given up the chance to get Bolden. And they needed a KR and additional CB.