Percentage Chance that Osweiler Will Ever Be Any Good

[Cugel]

I decided to look just at the percentages of QBs taken at #57 or later in the 2nd round or 3rd round (only). I'm not including late round scrubs who never had a chance, many of whom were around for a cup of coffee or spent some time on the developmental squad but never made a start.

I'm not going to argue that Osweiler WILL be a bust because NOBODY can know that. EFX like him and will try and develop him and we'll see.

But according to simple statistics it's a Long-Shot at best. About 5% chance he ever becomes a decent starter (not even elite QB, because that hasn't happened in the last 12 years, but decent starter).

2010

Jimmy Clausen #48
Colt McCoy #85

2009
Pat White #44

2008
Brian Brohme #56
Chad Henne #57

2007
Kevin Kolb #36
Brian Beck #40
Drew Stanton #43
Trent Edwards #92

2006
Kellen Clemmens #49
Tavaris Jackson #64
Charlie Whitehurst #81
Brodie Croyle #85

2005
Charlie Frye #67
Andrew Walther #69
David Greene #85
Kyle Orton #106

2004
Matt Shaub #90

2003
David Ragone #88
Chris Simms #97

2002
Josh McCown #81

2001
Drew Brees #32 (1st pick of the 2nd)
Quincy Carter #53
Marques Tuiaososopo # 59

2000
Giovanni Carmazzi #65
Chris Redmond #75

Drew Brees was the only elite QB drafted in the 2nd round or later in the last 12 years, but he was the #32 pick, basically a first rounder.

Notice that Matt Shaub is the ONLY QB taken at #57 or later who is any good at all. He's not considered an elite QB but he is decent.
And NO, Kyle Orton doesn't count.

So, just looking at STATS, your chances are about 1 in 20 or 5% that Osweiler will ever be any good.

And NO, once again, don't bother arguing that you have confidence in Elway or something equally irrelevant.

He could be good, great or completely worthless. We just don't know at this point.

I'm just pointing out the odds. Vegas is filled with broke losers who bet against the House. Once in a while someone hits the jackpot, that's all.

[bcbronc]

How many elite QBs would you say there are in the league today? Brady, Brees, Manning, Manning, Rodgers, and........? Rivers, no. Doesn't perform in playoffs. Stafford, too soon, but in a year or two okay. Cam, probably but needs another year or two. Cutler, not elite. Smith, not elite. Ryan and Flacco, neither yet.

So of those five elite QBs, two were taken #1 (as a franchise, we've never had a #1), one slid to late in the first, and two were taken outside the first round. So 40% of today's elite QBs were taken outside the first round. Seems like good odds to me.

:coffee:

[Day1BroncoFan]

Time will tell. We can hope is about all.

[jhildebrand]

My complaint on Osweiler is a few things:

1. He was a spread option QB. People railed about the last spread option QB that was here :coffee:

2. I am not sure he can read defenses all too well.

3. For as much was made about Tannehill's minimal number of starts NOBODY has mentioned that Osweiler has LESS!

4. He just comes across as immature.

5. I am not sure he will get the reps he needs while Manning is here. He needs reps. he needs looks at D's. I don't see how he will be able to progress when he wont get the work he needs.

Things I like about Osweiler-He is big, he can throw, and is young. By the time Manning is done, Osweiler should still be young.

[CoachChaz]

How many elite QBs would you say there are in the league today? Brady, Brees, Manning, Manning, Rodgers, and........? Rivers, no. Doesn't perform in playoffs. Stafford, too soon, but in a year or two okay. Cam, probably but needs another year or two. Cutler, not elite. Smith, not elite. Ryan and Flacco, neither yet.

So of those five elite QBs, two were taken #1 (as a franchise, we've never had a #1), one slid to late in the first, and two were taken outside the first round. So 40% of today's elite QBs were taken outside the first round. Seems like good odds to me.

:coffee:

Ok...40% of today's elite QB's were taken outside of the 1st...

...but only 15% of today's QB's are elite. Which actually lessens the chances to about 6% that Osweiler will be elite. Now this is also being technical about it because when you are the 1st player taken in the 2nd round...you are pretty much 1st round talent. It ust so happened that other teams filled other needs and the teams at the end of round one are ther because they are the better teams and likely already had a QB.

So, if we consider Brees a 1st rounder by default...the chances are even slimmer.


I dont know. Based on his current skillset, type of offense he plkays well in, where he was drafted, and a few other factors. I see us drafting a first round FQB in about 5 years

[cmc0605]

The OP could very well be right, but we'll have to wait and see. Obviously the further you get from the early first round the less likely you'd expect, statistically, to steal an elite or even "good" quarterback. There's always exceptions- Matt Leinart, David Carr, Jamarcus Russell were all selected in the first rounds; Tom Brady was selected in no mans land.

But even assuming the statistics are valid (I haven't checked if he missed anyone) it didn't help Brock that he only had 15 starts in college and is considered very talented but a big project. He has an extremely good arm, and I haven't followed him, but unlike previous comments the draft people were saying he had very good intelligence. There probably isn't a better place to be right now for a project QB, having Elway and Manning around. If it works, great, if not, then we lost a second round pick. I was one that thought we could have used that pick on something else, but I don't suspect that will haunt the franchise for years to come.

[shank]

none of this means anything. not even theoretically.

[BroncosReport]

I think there are just too many other factors involved to say "5% of QB's taken in the second/third round turn out to be good." Every draft is different and the number of QB's taken in the 1st round varies. And let's not forget, there are PLENTY of quarterbacks taken MUCH later than the second round who have gone on to be great (Tom Brady, anyone?). If any comparison can be made, I'd make it between Osweiler and Aaron Rodgers. Not because they play similar styles but because of the situations they were both drafted into. I'd argue Osweiler's is much better than what Rodgers had, but both came into the league with time to learn from a Hall of Fame veteran QB (two in Denver's case). That being said, if Osweiler fails, the blame will fall firmly on his own shoulders.

[CoachChaz]

I think there are just too many other factors involved to say "5% of QB's taken in the second/third round turn out to be good." Every draft is different and the number of QB's taken in the 1st round varies. And let's not forget, there are PLENTY of quarterbacks taken MUCH later than the second round who have gone on to be great (Tom Brady, anyone?). If any comparison can be made, I'd make it between Osweiler and Aaron Rodgers. Not because they play similar styles but because of the situations they were both drafted into. I'd argue Osweiler's is much better than what Rodgers had, but both came into the league with time to learn from a Hall of Fame veteran QB (two in Denver's case). That being said, if Osweiler fails, the blame will fall firmly on his own shoulders.

I appreciate your comment, but if you are going to make the above statement, you'll need to back it up with more than one name

[bcbronc]

Ok...40% of today's elite QB's were taken outside of the 1st...

...but only 15% of today's QB's are elite. Which actually lessens the chances to about 6% that Osweiler will be elite. Now this is also being technical about it because when you are the 1st player taken in the 2nd round...you are pretty much 1st round talent. It ust so happened that other teams filled other needs and the teams at the end of round one are ther because they are the better teams and likely already had a QB.

So, if we consider Brees a 1st rounder by default...the chances are even slimmer.


I dont know. Based on his current skillset, type of offense he plkays well in, where he was drafted, and a few other factors. I see us drafting a first round FQB in about 5 years

okay, so let's just take every QB drafted, from first overall to Mr. Irrelevant. Over the past few years, there tends to be 11-15 QBs taken any given draft year. With the exception of an Andrew Luck, EVERY QB drafted faces terrible odds of making it as a Qb. If you're a betting man, it's a stupid bet to bet ANY QB will become elite. First overall, first round, second round, sixth round, smart money is on a bust. No point ever drafting a QB if you don't like long odds......

[Ravage!!!]

The odds of any QB being elite are very small. Its why nearly every team in the NFL is looking for their guy (I think that bc forgot rothlesburger). But so what? I can say the same thing about EVERY position on the field. The Chances of that player being an all-pro is VERY unlikely. Is that really the point of taking the QB now? No.

It has everything to do with timing. Manning may play for 5 years, or 2. We got a guy to learn behind Peyton now... so what? Who cares that Cugel thinks/believes/shows that the odds are small?? Of course they are small. Thats what the ENTIRE draft is about.... picking players and doing your best to take players with the smallest chance of failure... WHILE..finding the right player that will fit into what you are doing, works with what the coach is doing, AND won't be a dip-shit outside the football field.

Its so VERY VERY VERY easy to say "we should have taken this player"....when you ahve NO idea, your job isn't on the line, and NOTHING changes if/when you are wrong. The funny thing is, we'll never know. People will say "see, I told you so".. as if it proves something. As if WHERE a player goes, WHEN he goes, the System he plays with has NOTHING to do with a player's success. If you truly don't believe that, then you need to get your head out of the sand.

Is it REALLY going to "break" this team if Oz doesn't work out? Really? No. But it could pay off HUGE dividends. As bc pointed out, the odds of ANY QB making it and being elite are tiny. So why do teams do it? Why did team take QBs at all when the money was SOOOO big and chances are so small??? Because the payoff is worth MORE than the risk.

The coaches/GM believe that getting a protege' behind Manning NOW makes sense. They want to start grooming someone now, and thats ALLLL there is to it.

[CoachChaz]

okay, so let's just take every QB drafted, from first overall to Mr. Irrelevant. Over the past few years, there tends to be 11-15 QBs taken any given draft year. With the exception of an Andrew Luck, EVERY QB drafted faces terrible odds of making it as a Qb. If you're a betting man, it's a stupid bet to bet ANY QB will become elite. First overall, first round, second round, sixth round, smart money is on a bust. No point ever drafting a QB if you don't like long odds......

I'm not arguing that it's a crap shoot. Whether it's 1st overall or last overall, you never can tell. But the odds are MUCH better in the 1st round than in the 2nd. Wasnt always that way and I think it can be that way again. So if it's all about luck after the first...why prioritize it and ignore greater needs? I think that's the question people are asking

[HORSEPOWER 56]

I decided to look just at the percentages of QBs taken at #57 or later in the 2nd round or 3rd round (only). I'm not including late round scrubs who never had a chance, many of whom were around for a cup of coffee or spent some time on the developmental squad but never made a start.

I'm not going to argue that Osweiler WILL be a bust because NOBODY can know that. EFX like him and will try and develop him and we'll see.

But according to simple statistics it's a Long-Shot at best. About 5% chance he ever becomes a decent starter (not even elite QB, because that hasn't happened in the last 12 years, but decent starter).

2010

Jimmy Clausen #48
Colt McCoy #85

2009
Pat White #44

2008
Brian Brohme #56
Chad Henne #57

2007
Kevin Kolb #36
Brian Beck #40
Drew Stanton #43
Trent Edwards #92

2006
Kellen Clemmens #49
Tavaris Jackson #64
Charlie Whitehurst #81
Brodie Croyle #85

2005
Charlie Frye #67
Andrew Walther #69
David Greene #85
Kyle Orton #106

2004
Matt Shaub #90

2003
David Ragone #88
Chris Simms #97

2002
Josh McCown #81

2001
Drew Brees #32 (1st pick of the 2nd)
Quincy Carter #53
Marques Tuiaososopo # 59

2000
Giovanni Carmazzi #65
Chris Redmond #75

Drew Brees was the only elite QB drafted in the 2nd round or later in the last 12 years, but he was the #32 pick, basically a first rounder.

Notice that Matt Shaub is the ONLY QB taken at #57 or later who is any good at all. He's not considered an elite QB but he is decent.
And NO, Kyle Orton doesn't count.

So, just looking at STATS, your chances are about 1 in 20 or 5% that Osweiler will ever be any good.

And NO, once again, don't bother arguing that you have confidence in Elway or something equally irrelevant.

He could be good, great or completely worthless. We just don't know at this point.

I'm just pointing out the odds. Vegas is filled with broke losers who bet against the House. Once in a while someone hits the jackpot, that's all.

So, Tony Romo doesn't count? He was an UDFA, right? Sure, people bag on him because the Cowboys, as a team, are dysfunctional, but the dude threw 31 TDs to 10 INts, had a 102 passer rating and a 66% completion percentage. It sure as shit wasn't his fault that Dallas can't win. I'd take those numbers every damned year.

[Northman]

I bet Cousins, Wilson, Moore, Foles, etc are all pouting as we speak at the odds they will ever become anything.

[CoachChaz]

So, Tony Romo doesn't count? He was an UDFA, right? Sure, people bag on him because the Cowboys, as a team, are dysfunctional, but the dude threw 31 TDs to 10 INts, had a 102 passer rating and a 66% completion percentage. It sure as shit wasn't his fault that Dallas can't win. I'd take those numbers every damned year.

Along with the games he throws away? It's not the 10 interceptions that count for him as much as when he threw the interceptions. Throws a bad pass against the Jets to give up the lead. Throws 2 pick-6's against the Lions that lead to loss in a game they were up 20 points in.

Romo is a good example of a UDFA that made it and plays well...but a bad example of a good leader and elite QB.

[jlarsiii]

I'm not arguing that it's a crap shoot. Whether it's 1st overall or last overall, you never can tell. But the odds are MUCH better in the 1st round than in the 2nd. Wasnt always that way and I think it can be that way again. So if it's all about luck after the first...why prioritize it and ignore greater needs? I think that's the question people are asking

But it isn't "luck" after the 1st. It is luck period. You can't exclude all the 1st round busts which means that even if you pick at the number 2 pick (everybody remember Ryan Leaf) or number one pick (Jawalrus Russel) it is a total crap shoot. You can't use bust rate as an excuse to not draft at a position otherwise you would never draft anyone at all...

We have an ideal situation for any backup QB to come in and learn under the tutelage of arguably the 2 best QBs to ever play the game. I wasn't happy initially, but after taking a moment to think about the pick it makes perfect sense as to why they drafted a QB in this draft to mentor. No controversies, no expectations, just come in and work your ass off every day to improve so that when your turn comes you can lead this team in the future for the next decade at least. If it pans out we will be sitting pretty, and that is exactly why they chose to draft a QB this year.

[CoachChaz]

I bet Cousins, Wilson, Moore, Foles, etc are all pouting as we speak at the odds they will ever become anything.

Probably not...but history speaks for itself

[BeefStew25]

47.39485930%

[Northman]

Probably not...but history speaks for itself


Whats the percentage of first rounders making it elite? Cant be that high. Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, etc. There are a lot of busts at that level too.

[claymore]

Id buy stock in enron before I bought stock in Osweiler. I agree with Chaz, we are drafting a 1st rd QB in the next few years. IMO this was a wasted pick. Mistakes happen. IM not holding this guy against EFX.

I also dont like the fact he is close to the Elways.


JMO...

[Northman]

Id buy stock in enron before I bought stock in Osweiler. I agree with Chaz, we are drafting a 1st rd QB in the next few years. IMO this was a wasted pick. Mistakes happen. IM not holding this guy against EFX.

I also dont like the fact he is close to the Elways.


JMO...


Ill take the bet, i dont think we are drafting a first round QB anytime soon.

[claymore]

Ill take the bet, i dont think we are drafting a first round QB anytime soon.

I say 5 years max. Or../ the year after Manning goes down. Whatever happens first.

[NightTerror218]

I think Osweiler is going to get help from elway. Elway is going to make sure he has a QB work on his mechanics. One thing about a young QB with less experience is that you have a better chance of molding mechanics if you start right away. He is going to get experience in pre-seasons. I also bet that if we are a shoe in for the playoffs that Fox will give him time on the field to rest Manning. I would also bet that if we have a big lead that he will get some reps at the end of the game too. If they are truely going to groom him and break him in then they are going to try to get him in as much as possible to get experience.

I think that will ELway/QB coach and 2 years he will develope very well. Many players mention that is their confidence that can bring them crashing to the ground and bust, if they lose it that is. So if Elway/manning can install a great sense of confidence that will help him too. I think watching Manning, learning how to run a team, talking with him and Elway he will gain a lot of insight and experience. So I give him a 25% chance of being a solid QB for us. As for being elite I would got with 3% (sounds good). He is suppose to have a high ceiling and great arm strength but the fact elite QBs are so rare that I give the chances very low.

[Ravage!!!]

well, that was scientific

[BroncosReport]

I appreciate your comment, but if you are going to make the above statement, you'll need to back it up with more than one name

Glad you asked. There is a long list of QB's taken AFTER the second round who went on to have very productive careers. I could obviously go back farther, but I'll start with Joe Montana (3rd round), Steve Young (wasn't drafted), Doug Flutie (11th), Rich Gannon (4th), Mark Brunell (5th), Matt Hasselbeck (5th), Marc Bulger (6th), Ryan Fitzpatrick (7th), Tony Romo (undrafted), Kurt Warner (undrafted) and Warren Moon (undrafted).

I'm sure you can go through my list one by one and pick them apart for not being "elite." But the most important thing is: for every John Elway, Peyton Manning or Troy Aikman, there are 10 more taken in the 1st round like JaMarcus Russell, David Klingler, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Heath Shuler, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart and everybody's favorite, Ryan Leaf.

The point is, the percentage chance that ANY quarterback will ever be any good is extremely thin. Osweiler's is no better or worse.

[Northman]

Glad you asked. There is a long list of QB's taken AFTER the second round who went on to have very productive careers. I could obviously go back farther, but I'll start with Joe Montana (3rd round), Steve Young (wasn't drafted), Doug Flutie (11th), Rich Gannon (4th), Mark Brunell (5th), Matt Hasselbeck (5th), Marc Bulger (6th), Ryan Fitzpatrick (7th), Tony Romo (undrafted), Kurt Warner (undrafted) and Warren Moon (undrafted).

I'm sure you can go through my list one by one and pick them apart for not being "elite." But the most important thing is: for every John Elway, Peyton Manning or Troy Aikman, there are 10 more taken in the 1st round like JaMarcus Russell, David Klingler, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Heath Shuler, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart and everybody's favorite, Ryan Leaf.

The point is, the percentage chance that ANY quarterback will ever be any good is extremely thin. Osweiler's is no better or worse.


Thanks for doing the homework, pretty much what i thought in terms of 1st round failures.

[Jsteve01]

the Steve Young thing is a little inaccurate. He was given a huge deal coming out of BYU and went usfl, then was taken 1st pick in the supplemental draft...I'm nitpicking but he wasn't some unknown lol

[Lancane]

Cugel, I have long agreed that you need a franchise quarterback to win in this league. But your spitefulness of the Osweiler pick is ridiculous, it's on a whole new level of over-exaggeration, not to mention that you seem to be valuing your own assessment or that of lesser respected individuals more then those of the more respected people who've evaluated Osweiler. Mayock himself said that had Osweiler thrown at the combine, he'd have wowed himself in the first round, the fact that he did not and had so little time as a starter would probably force him to remain a second round pick. After his pro-day, there was a huge debate if Brock was a first round pick some of the more respected talent evaluators labeled him a borderline first round talent and the only real knock was his lack of experience.

You want to give odds, what were the odds that Dalton would lead the Bengals to the playoffs? What were the odds the Cutler would become a first round pick? What were the odds that Brady would become one of the greatest to play the game?

According to your own assessment had Denver drafted Osweiler over Wolfe with their first of two second round picks, he'd be capable of being a franchise quarterback or so-called elite, correct? Notice the irony of your comments yet?

Tony Romo, Randall Cunningham, Tom Brady, Brian Sipe, Jake Delhomme, Warren Moon, Matt Schaub, Neil Lomax, Drew Brees, Brett Farve, Joe Theismann, Matt Hasselbeck, Johnny Unitas, Sonny Jurgensen, Danny White, Joe Ferguson, Norm Van Brocklin, Daryle Lamonica, John Hadl, Ken Anderson, Jim Hart, Kurt Warner, Boomer Esiason, Bart Starr, Ken Stabler, Dan Fouts, Fran Tarkenton, Roger Staubach and Joe Montana.

I'm sure that most of the above entitled names are glad you don't make the rules, especially that only first round quarterbacks can succeed...especially since a more then a couple of them are the HOF Legacy of the position.

[NorCalBronco7]

The percentage Cugel has something important to say - 5%

[TimHippo]

Glad you asked. There is a long list of QB's taken AFTER the second round who went on to have very productive careers. I could obviously go back farther, but I'll start with Joe Montana (3rd round), Steve Young (wasn't drafted), Doug Flutie (11th), Rich Gannon (4th), Mark Brunell (5th), Matt Hasselbeck (5th), Marc Bulger (6th), Ryan Fitzpatrick (7th), Tony Romo (undrafted), Kurt Warner (undrafted) and Warren Moon (undrafted).

I'm sure you can go through my list one by one and pick them apart for not being "elite." But the most important thing is: for every John Elway, Peyton Manning or Troy Aikman, there are 10 more taken in the 1st round like JaMarcus Russell, David Klingler, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Heath Shuler, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart and everybody's favorite, Ryan Leaf.

The point is, the percentage chance that ANY quarterback will ever be any good is extremely thin. Osweiler's is no better or worse.

Steve Young was the 11th pick in the first round by the USFLs Los Angeles express who singed him to a 40 million dollar contract. That's the reason no NFL team drafted him, he was already tied up with a contract.

When the USFL went bankrupt Young was drafted #1 in the supplemental draft (the only draft ex USFL players were allowed to be drafted in) by Tampa.

So I'm not sure why you are including him in your list. A little misleading.

[TimHippo]

The other problem is just listing a row of non 1st rounders in hopes of extinguishing the flames.

The problem is, when your list takes the last 40 years, rounds 2-7 (or 2-10 back in the day)
Their are bound to be some good QBs when you take them from such an enormous pool. Not to mention that pool is 6x the pool of 1st rounders.

At least Cugels analysis uses percentages which is at least more accurate then listing from such a large pool.

[Northman]

Steve Young was the 11th pick in the first round by the USFLs Los Angeles express who singed him to a 40 million dollar contract. That's the reason no NFL team drafted him, he was already tied up with a contract.

When the USFL went bankrupt Young was drafted #1 in the supplemental draft (the only draft ex USFL players were allowed to be drafted in) by Tampa.

So I'm not sure why you are including him in your list. A little misleading.


Not really misleading considering how he played when he first made it too the pro level. In his first two years with the Bucs his record was 3-16, in San Fran before 92' his record was 12-8. All this in 7 years prior to becoming a really good QB. And thats not counting how much time he spent at the USFL level. So its not really misleading to say that Young wasnt an immediate impact of a player at the professional level.

[topscribe]

Cug, what would you say Osweiler more closely resembles: a pair of dice or a roulette wheel?

[Lancane]

The other problem is just listing a row of non 1st rounders in hopes of extinguishing the flames.

The problem is, when your list takes the last 40 years, rounds 2-7 (or 2-10 back in the day)
Their are bound to be some good QBs when you take them from such an enormous pool. Not to mention that pool is 6x the pool of 1st rounders.

At least Cugels analysis uses percentages which is at least more accurate then listing from such a large pool.

Seriously? That is your best argument, the mere fact that it's happened time and time again simply shows that history repeats itself and that douchebag analysts such as Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and so forth are not the geniuses that people such as yourself perceive. Quit buying into the 'Well they know their business", that's about as stupid as someone saying "Don't tell a mobster how to whack people", to which I would say, "Why the F' not, if they actually knew how to do it...maybe they wouldn't get caught all the time!"

[MOtorboat]

Futile.

The odds against every quarterback ever drafted are high, even the top picks. Aside from MAYBE pitcher and hockey goalie, it's the toughest position in sports.

I know why the OP has made the thread. He doesn't like the pick.

But the exercise is nearly futile.

[tomjonesrocks]

Cutler, not elite.

He probably is already, but will be by all evaluations within 5 years.

[tomjonesrocks]

Was a stupid pick, but Os has all the tools. It probably won't work out, but Elway will be hailed a genius if it does...

If everything goes to plan though, he never plays. So in that sense they definitely should have drafted someone else.

[Dapper Dan]

We don't waste time criticizing Quaterbacks in Denver. We may take another one in the 2023 draft. I'll go ahead and start that one. That guy's gonna be worthless.

[bcbronc]

He probably is already, but will be by all evaluations within 5 years.


He's an elite wuss, I'll give you that much. ;)

[chazoe60]

Cug, what would you say Osweiler more closely resembles: a pair of dice or a roulette wheel?

:laugh::laugh::laugh:

[Jsteve01]

He probably is already, but will be by all evaluations within 5 years.


He's an elite wuss, I'll give you that much. ;)lol

[chazoe60]

So I guess unless you're picking in the top ten you should never pick a QB. Why haven't the idiots who get paid to do this stuff not realized this? Why has any QB ever been taken outside of the first round, I mean it's so obvious that they never work out?

[Simple Jaded]

Osweiler ran the spread option? Fat chance.

Say what you want but the Broncos QB situation went from the absolute worst in the entire league to one of the best in the league in little over a month. I am actually starting to really appreciate the fact that the Broncos invested so heavily in that position, finally there is something to look forward to instead of flat out dreading watching the Broncos offense for the last 3 years.

I'm excited.......

[DenBronx]

My complaint on Osweiler is a few things:

1. He was a spread option QB. People railed about the last spread option QB that was here :coffee:

2. I am not sure he can read defenses all too well.

3. For as much was made about Tannehill's minimal number of starts NOBODY has mentioned that Osweiler has LESS!

4. He just comes across as immature.

5. I am not sure he will get the reps he needs while Manning is here. He needs reps. he needs looks at D's. I don't see how he will be able to progress when he wont get the work he needs.

Things I like about Osweiler-He is big, he can throw, and is young. By the time Manning is done, Osweiler should still be young.

I agree with everything you said except #4.

But the TS is actually right. Brocks going to have to beat the odds of poor to average QBs taken in rounds 2 or later.

Good thing is there is a draft EVERY year. You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. If Brock is even good as Schuab then I'll be somewhat happy. Who knows, he could be a stop gap until Aaron Rogers contract expires.

[Dapper Dan]

Osweiler ran the spread option? Fat chance.

Say what you want but the Broncos QB situation went from the absolute worst in the entire league to one of the best in the league in little over a month. I am actually starting to really appreciate the fact that the Broncos invested so heavily in that position, finally there is something to look forward to instead of flat out dreading watching the Broncos offense for the last 3 years.

I'm excited.......


I'm excited as well. I love our situation now. But this kind of exaggeration annoys me. Our QB situation wasn't any worse than Jacksonville's or a number of other teams.

[TimHippo]

So I guess unless you're picking in the top ten you should never pick a QB. Why haven't the idiots who get paid to do this stuff not realized this? Why has any QB ever been taken outside of the first round, I mean it's so obvious that they never work out?

No, nobody has said that. You're setting up a straw man argument that noone has said so you can beat it down.

All anyone is saying is why pick a project QB (Brockweiler) with a 2nd round pick when you already have the GOAT QB with a 3 year window and need to get impact players around him so you can win now.

[Jsteve01]

Osweiler ran some spread option on a minimal basis. It was not by any means their base set or even 10 percent of their Playbook. Quit making stuff up to make a point.

[MOtorboat]

No, nobody has said that. You're setting up a straw man argument that noone has said so you can beat it down.

All anyone is saying is why pick a project QB (Brockweiler) with a 2nd round pick when you already have the GOAT QB with a 3 year window and need to get impact players around him so you can win now.

So that you have a backup that has potential, UNLIKE the Colts over the last 10 years.

I'll take the Belichekian theory of backup quarterbacks over the Polianian theory of backup quarterbacks any day.

[TimHippo]

Not really misleading considering how he played when he first made it too the pro level. In his first two years with the Bucs his record was 3-16, in San Fran before 92' his record was 12-8. All this in 7 years prior to becoming a really good QB. And thats not counting how much time he spent at the USFL level. So its not really misleading to say that Young wasnt an immediate impact of a player at the professional level.

It actually is. Because to say Steve Young wasn't drafted in the 1st round is highly misleading.
He was a first round pick in the USFL and would have been a 1st round pick in the NFL had he not signed the 40 million dollar contract with the Los Angeless Express.
Then he was the 1st pick in the supplemental draft of USFL players once the league folded.

Everyone can't be Peyton Manning and dominate immediately even if picked high. It took Terry Bradshaw awhile and he was the number 1 pick in the entire draft IIRC.

[TimHippo]

So that you have a backup that has potential, UNLIKE the Colts over the last 10 years.

I'll take the Belichekian theory of backup quarterbacks over the Polianian theory of backup quarterbacks any day.

Under that logic Tebow had potential too. So you essentially traded away a #2 pick for a #4 pick and change.

As far as the Colts, they have Luck now so it basically worked out for them. Tank the season once Manning is done and get the QB you want. That's basically what the Colts did. (Although I'm not really sold on Luck)

[TimHippo]

. Why haven't the idiots who get paid to do this stuff not realized this?

The idiots who get paid also trashed the Broncos draft, especially the Brockweiler pick. So should we listen to what the idiots who get paid are saying about the Broncos draft?

[MOtorboat]

Under that logic Tebow had potential too. So you essentially traded away a #2 pick for a #4 pick and change.

As far as the Colts, they have Luck now so it basically worked out for them. Tank the season once Manning is done and get the QB you want. That's basically what the Colts did. (Although I'm not really sold on Luck)

No, because he played. And they didn't like what they saw, because it was pathetic.

You should know everything you need to about that based on what Matt Cassell was traded for vs. what Tebow was traded for.

Seriously, are people this naive about Tebow?

[TimHippo]

Seriously? That is your best argument, the mere fact that it's happened time and time again simply shows that history repeats itself and that douchebag analysts such as Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and so forth are not the geniuses that people such as yourself perceive. Quit buying into the 'Well they know their business", that's about as stupid as someone saying "Don't tell a mobster how to whack people", to which I would say, "Why the F' not, if they actually knew how to do it...maybe they wouldn't get caught all the time!"

Once again you're rationalizing.

Cugel's analysis is a much better analysis because it uses percentages.

It's like the short QB arguement. Yeah there have been some short QBs who have done well. Brees, Vick, Flutie. You could probably name about 20 short QBs in a 40 year span. And then say "see, short QBs can be really good". The vast majority don't do well though. So going with percentages over randomly listing a bunch of short succesful QBs is a much better basis for assessing the success rate of short QBs.

(Course Brockweiler is extremely tall, so that's something we don't have to worry about).

[TimHippo]

No, because he played. And they didn't like what they saw, because it was pathetic.

You should know everything you need to about that based on what Matt Cassell was traded for vs. what Tebow was traded for.

Seriously, are people this naive about Tebow?

Apparently they are "that naive" about the Broncos draft grades.

Tebow had a good year last year. Set some playoff and Broncos records. We'll see if Brockweiler ever achieves more than that.

Either way though (either Tebow or Brockweiler) doesn't help Peyton Manning and the ability to win the Super Bowl now (during Manning 3 year or so window). That's what you have to be all in for. I think that's all Cugel and other people who don't like where Brockweiler was picked are saying.

[MOtorboat]

Apparently they are "that naive" about the Broncos draft grades.

Tebow had a good year last year. Set some playoff and Broncos records. We'll see if Brockweiler ever achieves more than that.

Either way though (either Tebow or Brockweiler) doesn't help Peyton Manning and the ability to win the Super Bowl now (during Manning 3 year or so window). That's what you have to be all in for. I think that's all Cugel and other people who don't like where Brockweiler was picked are saying.

What draft grades. Who gives a shit about that?

Way to deflect the point, though.

[Simple Jaded]

Under that logic Tebow had potential too. So you essentially traded away a #2 pick for a #4 pick and change.

As far as the Colts, they have Luck now so it basically worked out for them. Tank the season once Manning is done and get the QB you want. That's basically what the Colts did. (Although I'm not really sold on Luck)Even if that were remotely true Tebow had to go, cause whatever potential he has it just simply isn't worth the brain damage.

Btw, you're not sold on Luck but you wash Tebow's sack?.......

[NorCalBronco7]

No, nobody has said that. You're setting up a straw man argument that noone has said so you can beat it down.

All anyone is saying is why pick a project QB (Brockweiler) with a 2nd round pick when you already have the GOAT QB with a 3 year window and need to get impact players around him so you can win now.

Everyone who hates the Os pick repeats themselves over and over with this WIN NOW garbage, and Mannings 36 plus coming off neck surgery.

[shank]

Cugel's analysis is a much better analysis because it uses percentages.



lof'nl

[chazoe60]

Yep, at the end of the season we'll all be saying "damn, if we would have drafted LeVonte David instead of Osweiler we'd be SB champs!"


Come on guys. So many people bitching about one 2nd round pick? As if there was some obvious stud on the board that we passed up who would push us over the top. It's ridiculous.

[TimHippo]

Yep, at the end of the season we'll all be saying "damn, if we would have drafted LeVonte David instead of Osweiler we'd be SB champs!"


Come on guys. So many people bitching about one 2nd round pick? As if there was some obvious stud on the board that we passed up who would push us over the top. It's ridiculous.

All the experts who get paid, and spend hours and hours and hours and hours seem to think EFX dropped the ball with that pick. It was a mistake but there's not much we can do about it now so we can only hope Peyton can overcome that and lead us to the promised land.

[MOtorboat]

All the experts who get paid, and spend hours and hours and hours and hours seem to think EFX dropped the ball with that pick. It was a mistake but there's not much we can do about it now so we can only hope Peyton can overcome that and lead us to the promised land.

Because the front office doesn't get paid to scout players...

[chazoe60]

All the experts who get paid, and spend hours and hours and hours and hours seem to think EFX dropped the ball with that pick. It was a mistake but there's not much we can do about it now so we can only hope Peyton can overcome that and lead us to the promised land.

Bullshit.

Yeah poor Peyton has to overcome the drafting of a QB in the second round. Gosh, think of all that talent he could have been playing with instead.


Please stop typing stupid things, it's annoying.

[NorCalBronco7]

Under that logic Tebow had potential too. So you essentially traded away a #2 pick for a #4 pick and change.


As far as the Colts, they have Luck now so it basically worked out for them. Tank the season once Manning is done and get the QB you want. That's basically what the Colts did. (Although I'm not really sold on Luck)

Yeah, **** it. Who cares about winning AFTER Manning retires? Its only about NOW, NOW and NOW.

[Nomad]

I'm not as optimistic as others here but he's a BRONCO and he'll have his chance. I hope it works out.

[TimHippo]

Bullshit.

Yeah poor Peyton has to overcome the drafting of a QB in the second round. Gosh, think of all that talent he could have been playing with instead.


Please stop typing stupid things, it's annoying.

Peyton will win this team to a Super Bowl. Hopefully.

[TimHippo]

Bullshit.

Yeah poor Peyton has to overcome the drafting of a QB in the second round. Gosh, think of all that talent he could have been playing with instead.


Please stop typing stupid things, it's annoying.

Peyton will will this team to a Super Bowl. Hopefully.

[Simple Jaded]

I'm excited as well. I love our situation now. But this kind of exaggeration annoys me. Our QB situation wasn't any worse than Jacksonville's or a number of other teams.

By far the worst, that's not an exaggeration at all. Say what you want about Gabbert, he can nail passes that Tebow and Weber can't even dream of. Gabbert is a far better prospect than Tebow/Weber. Also, look at the teams that brought in new QB's this offseason, you're telling me Tebow/Weber were better than Matt Moore in Miami, Jackson in Seattle? Even Indy and Washington, I'm not saying Grossman and Orlovsky are any good, they're not but they are light years ahead of Tebow/Weber.

Tebow was horrible, plain and simple, but what made the Broncos situation the worst was the nonsense that surrounded the entire team. Not only was their QB horrible but they were stuck with him to the point that they actually had to sign a Hall of Fame QB to even justify replacing him. That's obscenely idiotic and no other team has ever had to deal with that.......

[chazoe60]

Peyton will will this team to a Super Bowl. Hopefully.

How the **** can he with that god dammed wasted second round pick?

[TimHippo]

How the **** can he with that god dammed wasted second round pick?

This is Peyton Manning we are talking about.

He took a mediocre Colt team (with Austin Collie & Garcon) to the Super Bowl vs the Saints and almost pulled it off.

Never underestimate him.

[chazoe60]

This is Peyton Manning we are talking about.

He took a mediocre Colt team (with Austin Collie & Garcon) to the Super Bowl vs the Saints and almost pulled it off.

Never underestimate him.

Not even Peyton Manning can overcome drafting Osweiler in the second. You're dreaming.

[TimHippo]

Not even Peyton Manning can overcome drafting Osweiler in the second. You're dreaming.

Then we're doomed.

[MOtorboat]

I'm so confused.

[chazoe60]

Drafting Osweiler was a huge mistake because Peyton needs help to win now. Peyton will win us a SB, don't worry.


It's all very easy to understand MO.

[Northman]

Broncos will be fine. Dont feed the troll gents.

[TimHippo]

Drafting Osweiler was a huge mistake because Peyton needs help to win now. Peyton will win us a SB, don't worry.


It's all very easy to understand MO.

You can not stop the man (Peyton). You can only hope to contain him.

The easy thing would have been for him to go the 49ers but he wanted the challenge.
Brockweiler is just another hurdle he will overcome.

[NorCalBronco7]

You can not stop the man (Peyton). You can only hope to contain him.

The easy thing would have been for him to go the 49ers but he wanted the challenge.
Brockweiler is just another hurdle he will overcome.

Ok troll.

[Dapper Dan]

By far the worst, that's not an exaggeration at all. Say what you want about Gabbert, he can nail passes that Tebow and Weber can't even dream of. Gabbert is a far better prospect than Tebow/Weber. Also, look at the teams that brought in new QB's this offseason, you're telling me Tebow/Weber were better than Matt Moore in Miami, Jackson in Seattle? Even Indy and Washington, I'm not saying Grossman and Orlovsky are any good, they're not but they are light years ahead of Tebow/Weber.

Tebow was horrible, plain and simple, but what made the Broncos situation the worst was the nonsense that surrounded the entire team. Not only was their QB horrible but they were stuck with him to the point that they actually had to sign a Hall of Fame QB to even justify replacing him. That's obscenely idiotic and no other team has ever had to deal with that.......

The Raiders had a game where 2 different quarterbacks had 3 Ints each.

You're the one buying in to all of the crap surrounding the situation. You hate it so much that you're exaggerating.

Other teams had awful quarterback situations. All our QB had to do was not lose. Many quarterbacks had trouble with that.

You can believe what you want. That's why this is my last post on that matter.

[TimHippo]

Ok troll.

Yes, anyone who disagrees with you is a troll. This is the kind of head in the sand Ostrich mentality with some fans.

[Day1BroncoFan]

The sky is falling.

[TXBRONC]

Osweiler ran the spread option? Fat chance.

Say what you want but the Broncos QB situation went from the absolute worst in the entire league to one of the best in the league in little over a month. I am actually starting to really appreciate the fact that the Broncos invested so heavily in that position, finally there is something to look forward to instead of flat out dreading watching the Broncos offense for the last 3 years.

I'm excited.......

But it's written stone that he will fail so please take your appreciation and a excitement elsewhere. TIA.:wave: (sarcasm)

[TXBRONC]

Because the front office doesn't get paid to scout players...

Why would they? Obviously Kiper, McShay and the like have literally all the answers.

[Jsteve01]

Ahh where facts stats and real player evaluation fail resort to hyperbole. I've actually seen more positive response from the experts about the oz pick than the Wolfe pick. I think we ought to check in with the NFL executive committee and see if we can take a year off to recover from the debacle that is drafting Brock osweiler

[Chef Zambini]

this is all very entertaining,
especially the ENRON comment,
and many of you make valid comments and arguements.
But all of the draft is a crap-shoot!
for every leaf there is a mandarich.
for every j'marcus russel there is a brady or kurt warner.
Our broncos felt they NEEDED a QB for the future more than a second overall pick (for our team) for the NOW !
and this after passing twice on drafting in the FIRST round !
I am very unhappy with that phylosophy, course of action !!!
My only problem with brocko is he wont be contributing this season and probably not in the next 2 either !
we all PRAY that is true!
so, he better be a stud when he does see the field, because we could have drafted a STARTER in his place and every year another crap shoot of 5-10 QBs is at our disposal!

brocko was elways fixation, I hope elway was right!

[NightTerror218]

this is all very entertaining,
especially the ENRON comment,
and many of you make valid comments and arguements.
But all of the draft is a crap-shoot!
for every leaf there is a mandarich.
for every j'marcus russel there is a brady or kurt warner.
Our broncos felt they NEEDED a QB for the future more than a second overall pick (for our team) for the NOW !
and this after passing twice on drafting in the FIRST round !
I am very unhappy with that phylosophy, course of action !!!
My only problem with brocko is he wont be contributing this season and probably not in the next 2 either !
we all PRAY that is true!
so, he better be a stud when he does see the field, because we could have drafted a STARTER in his place and every year another crap shoot of 5-10 QBs is at our disposal!

brocko was elways fixation, I hope elway was right!

I can see Elway drafting another QB mid round once brock takes over.

[Cugel]

How many elite QBs would you say there are in the league today? Brady, Brees, Manning, Manning, Rodgers, and........? Rivers, no. Doesn't perform in playoffs. Stafford, too soon, but in a year or two okay. Cam, probably but needs another year or two. Cutler, not elite. Smith, not elite. Ryan and Flacco, neither yet.

So of those five elite QBs, two were taken #1 (as a franchise, we've never had a #1), one slid to late in the first, and two were taken outside the first round. So 40% of today's elite QBs were taken outside the first round. Seems like good odds to me.

:coffee:

There are 6 elite QBs in the NFL today and a bunch of 2nd tier Qbs.

Elite:

Eli Manning -- #1 overall pick
Aaron Rogers #24 pick
Drew Brees #32 pick (1st pick of the 2nd round)
Ben Roethlisberger #11 pick
Peyton Manning #1 overall pick
Tom Brady -- 6th round

Guys who MIGHT someday become elite QBs? We just don't know. But there's a bunch of second tier players:

Jay Cutler #11 overall
Matt Ryan #3 overall
Mark Sanchez #5 overall
Phillip Rivers #4 overall
Cam Newton #1 overall
Sam Bradford #1 overall
Matt Stafford #1 overall
Tony Romo undrafted
Matt Schaub #90of the 3rd round

You can add your own list. NONE of these guys really compares with any of the top 6. But, even among the 2nd tier QBs you notice the depressing frequency of top #1 overall picks.

It's just statistically almost impossible to get a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round who amounts to anything. Really out of that list only Brees, Brady, and Schaub count as good to great QBs taken outside the 1st round in the last 10 years. (I'm not counting Romo who I think is on his way OUT in Dallas after this season. He keeps choking when the chips are down).

You can't say "1 out of 6 Hall of Fame Qbs or potential Hall of Famers was taken in the 6th round so I like those odds!"

That's just ignorance of statistics. You have to look at the total number of QBs taken at #57 or later and then look at the number who are or were any good over the last 12 years. (Again I'm not counting 4th through 7th round QBs because they aren't supposed to be anything but backups -- if they were projected to be starters they'd be drafted in the first 3 rounds). If you counted late round QBs the percentage would be a lot lower of course.

And saying "Tom Brady was taken in the 6th round so it can happen! is just silly." People have been saying that for the last 10 years and in that time about 80 QBs taken outside the 1st round, and NONE of them approaches Brady (but Brees at #32). So that was a total fluke.

It's about like expecting to find a RB like Terrell Davis in the 6th round! Good luck with that. :coffee:

[Cugel]

I can see Elway drafting another QB mid round once brock takes over.

That can never work. That's kind of the point. :coffee:

The overwhelming statistical probability is that Brock Osweiler is at BEST another Matt Schaub, and at worst? Well, perhaps Brian Brohme (also taken at #57) or something.

So, there's certainly a CHANCE he'll be decent.

But, I still maintain, and the list above supports my argument, that you need a first round QB and probably a top 10-11 QB to have a reasonable chance to win the SB.

Even getting Aaron Rogers at #24 is a wild fluke. Getting Drew Brees at #32 is an even bigger FLUKE. And getting Tom Brady is like winning the $100 million powerball lotto.

Somebody has to, but it's not going to be any use spending all your money on lotto tickets.

(Notice that I didn't include all the 1st round QB BUSTS in this list. It's easy to make a mistake even with a high draft pick, but it's hard to pick right). That's the hard rule about QBs in the NFL.

[Northman]

(Notice that I didn't include all the 1st round QB BUSTS in this list. It's easy to make a mistake even with a high draft pick, but it's hard to pick right). That's the hard rule about QBs in the NFL.

But thats the crux of it. Even if Denver managed to pick 3 straight 1st round QB's nothing would guarantee them a elite QB. Its all a crapshoot and all you can hope for is that you make the right choice no matter if its the 1st round or later.

[chazoe60]

Blah blah ******* blah.

All widget are gidgets. Are all gidget widgets?

[Cugel]

But it's written stone that he will fail so please take your appreciation and a excitement elsewhere. TIA.:wave: (sarcasm)

Nice Straw Man you have knocked down there. :coffee:

He's NOT guaranteed to fail. Have as much homerism as you like!

But the statistics don't back you up. That's the ONLY Point of this thread.

If you sell your house, go to Vegas and bet all the money on #32 at roulette you COULD win a huge payoff that would make you rich for life.

But, would you be wildly enthusiastic about your chances? About the same odds here as I demonstrated above. :coffee:

[chazoe60]

We sigened Peyton Manning, finally drafted a DT, have a defensive rookie of the year, and we're coming off a season in which we won the west and a playoff game and all some people can do is whine and bitch about our 2nd 2nd round pick? ******* priceless.

[Cugel]

But thats the crux of it. Even if Denver managed to pick 3 straight 1st round QB's nothing would guarantee them a elite QB. Its all a crapshoot and all you can hope for is that you make the right choice no matter if its the 1st round or later.

You're just a "statistics denier" aren't you? :laugh:

The number of first round busts is NOT equaled by the number of 2nd or later round great QBs as I just proved!

Your point is that it doesn't matter whether you take a QB in the first round or a later round, because it's ALL THE SAME PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS which nobody can know in advance!

Only that's demonstrably FALSE! Obviously your chances of getting an Elite QB are MUCH greater at #1 overall than in the 3rd round. And outside the first round, your chances of finding even a DECENT 2nd tier QB fall to miniscule.

So, draft position DOES matter, and where you take a QB DOES determine your chances.

What you have not understood is that finding an elite QB is so hard that even taking the top QB in the draft at #1 overall doesn't guarantee anything (Alex Smith).

But, would you rather have Andrew Luck, RGIII or Brock Osweiler? (I'd rather have Osweiler at #57 than Tannehill at #8 though).

[Northman]

You're just a "statistics denier" aren't you?



Not at all, but im also not naive enough to believe that its cemented in stone like you that its a guarantee that you will get an elite QB in the first round. Sure, your chances "go up" but its still not a guarantee. The problem with your analysis is your basing it with 1st vs the rest of the draft. So i will ask again, what the percentages with just 1st round QB's making it too an elite level? Ill wait.

[Northman]

I guess im just not sure what your trying to accomplish here Cugel. Its common knowledge that the higher the draft pick the more likely you are to land a difference maker at any position. I mean, its not rocket science so why are you even bringing it up? Are you going on record saying that because the likelihood of landing a elite QB later in the draft is not that great that a team should refuse to draft one anyway out of fear?

[Ravage!!!]

Not to mention, 1st round draft picks generally get more chances to start and succeed, purely because they were taken in the first round. That used to mean BIG money, thus HAVING to put you in the lineup.

I know that a lot of talent has been lost in the NFL because a player was taken TOO early in the draft, and thus too much expectations were put upon them to succeed early. Cut or not given a chance if that player wasn't tops quickly due to his draft status. The same can be said for success due to opportunity.

Top talent is taken higher. Shocking that higher percentages of them go on to be better players. But now that college is putting out more and more capable QBs due to the NCAA moving to more passing than running... I don't find it unreasable to think that a 2nd round QB talent can be VERY capable...especially with the proper situation. We have the perfect situation for a good talent, that hasn't had much experience in college. Can't learn from someone better.

[jlarsiii]

I guess im just not sure what your trying to accomplish here Cugel. Its common knowledge that the higher the draft pick the more likely you are to land a difference maker at any position. I mean, its not rocket science so why are you even bringing it up? Are you going on record saying that because the likelihood of landing a elite QB later in the draft is not that great that a team should refuse to draft one anyway out of fear?

Agreed. I don't know why you are bothering. Cug isn't going to change his mind. He hates the draft pick and is using "draft pick position analysis" to demonstratively state that our new QB will fail. Please don't mention that any other position we would have drafted at that pick would have that much less of a "statistical chance" of making the team and becoming "elite" as our new QB would because they wouldn't have been first round picks either. You can only use his logic for QBs taken, and not for any other position, because if you did extrapolate his viewpoint to cover all positions and not just QB you would realize how ridiculous and pointless this argument is.

By Cug's logic it wouldn't matter what position we drafted at pick 57. Statistically speaking that player is fuct either way. So draft in the first round and say **** it for the rest of the draft because none of those players will pan out (statistically speaking of course)...

[shank]

it doesn't take a cugel to see that the odds of this thread sucking are through the roof.

[Day1BroncoFan]

I can play the odds and say any player drafted any where in the draft by any team will fail, then come back in a year or two and say how right I was. Doesn't make me a genius.

[silkamilkamonico]

What is the percentage of a 1st round QB not being any good at the NFL level?

[silkamilkamonico]

Romo is a good example of a UDFA that made it and plays well...but a bad example of a good leader and elite QB.


Better yet, what is the chance that a 1st round QB in the NFL doesn't become "elite"?

[CoachChaz]

Better yet, what is the chance that a 1st round QB in the NFL doesn't become "elite"?

Compared to what? Brady was a 6th round pick, Romo was a UDFA. After that, arent all the other "god" QB's former 1st/2nd rounders?

As far as elite status...not sure I can name any that werent 1st rounders...with the exception of Brees being the 1st pick in round 2. I dont even know what the issue is in this thread anymore.

My personal take...no problem with a QB if they are needed and a quality one is available...but a big problem with the one we got in particular

[silkamilkamonico]

People were arguing the low statistical chance of Brock being a good QB, and others were arguing the even lower chance of him being an elite one.

I wonder what the statistical chance of a first round QB "busting", or not being an elite QB.

We have what, maybe 5 QB's in the NFL that are elite total at the moment? Are they even all first round picks? How many first round "busts", or none elite QB's are there?

I would think for as low of a chance that Brock has of being elite, any other first round QB has probably a very very high chance of not being elite.

[NightTerror218]

I would give Brock a better chance then most QBs drafted after the 1st round, just because he is going to be groomed and not forced to play before he is ready. He is going to be brought along like Rivers/Rodgers and I think it will be good for his progression as a QB.

[Northman]

I wonder what the statistical chance of a first round QB "busting", or not being an elite QB.



Well, i did a little research and although i dont have the exact percentage (and keep in mind this was only going back to the late to mid 70's so the bust list would be even greater) is but here is what i found.


Hall of Fame QB's taken in the first round:

Troy Aikman
John Elway
Jim Kelly
Dan Marino
Sammy Baugh
Terry Bradshaw
Len Dawson
Otto Graham
Bob Griese
Sid Luckman
Joe Namath

Hall of Fame QB's taken in later rounds or undrafted:


George Blanda
Joe Montana
Sonny Jurgensen
Steve Young (supplemental draft, not official draft)
Warren Moon
Bart Starr
Roger Staubach
Fran Tarkenton
Johnny Unitas


Current/Past QB's who are/were elite and possible HOF'rs:

Kurt Warner (Undrafted)
Tom Brady (6th round)
Peyton Manning
Eli Manning
Ben Roethlesberger
Aaron Rodgers
Jim Plunkett


QB's taken in the first round that busted:

Todd Blackledge
Kelly Stouffer
Andre Ware
David Klinger
Heath Shuler
Tim Couch
Akili Smith
Cade McNown
Vince Young
Tommy Maddox
Rick Mirer
Jim Druckenmiller
Ryan Leaf
Tim Couch
Joey Harrington
J.P. Losman
Matt Leinart
JaMarcus Russell
David Carr
Art Schlichter
Chris Miller
Kyle Boller
Jim Harbaugh
Brady Quinn
Chuck Long
Jeff George
Byron Leftwich
Steve Fuller
Daunte Culpepper
Tommy Kramer
Archie Manning
Chad Pennington
Todd Marinovich
Mark Malone
Dan McGwire
Jim Everett
Jason Campbell
Patrick Ramsey
Tony Eason


QB's taken in the first that still have question marks:

Alex Smith
Michael Vick
Matt Stafford
Jay Cutler
Sam Bradford
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Ryan Tannehill
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Cam Newton
Carson Palmer
Brandon Weeden
Tim Tebow
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Mark Sanchez
Philip Rivers
Josh Freeman
Jake Locker


QB's that were first rounders that had solid/average careers with some even making and winning Super Bowls:

Rex Grossman
Kerry Collins
Jim McMahon
Drew Bledsoe
Phil Simms
Ken O'Brien
Donovan McNabb
Trent Dilfer
Vinny Testeverde
Doug Williams
Steve McNair

[NightTerror218]

Hey north do you happen to know how many QBs have been drafted just to compare with in that time span. Percents can come from that.

[MOtorboat]

Hey north do you happen to know how many QBs have been drafted just to compare with in that time span. Percents can come from that.

Its about a 15 percent "success" rate. I did the math when HO was having his "only 15 percent of left-handed quarterbacks ever made it" hissy fit. And it turns out that about 15 percent of all quarterbacks drafted are "successful."

I'll try to find the post, but I post a too much.

P.S. I think my "successful" and North's first three categories were comparable. I only did the last 20 years, because I felt the role of the quarterback was different before that period of time.

[NightTerror218]

Its about a 15 percent "success" rate. I did the math when HO was having his "only 15 percent of left-handed quarterbacks ever made it" hissy fit. And it turns out that about 15 percent of all quarterbacks drafted are "successful."

I'll try to find the post, but I post a too much.

ok ya I remember it. It was like almost 2 per draft ever make it.

[Jsteve01]

Thank you to all the crunchers who are way more dedicated than myself. I would have never ever ever made that list north...that took some work lol

[Dapper Dan]

The thing I hate about statistics is that they try to group so many things when every situation is different. Every player is different and every team is.

I don't believe Roethlisberger would have been successful if he were drafted by the Browns. I don't think any QB for the Browns has had success since I've been born. Just the same, you could stick a few of those "busts" on a great team and he will be considered successful.

I think there aren't many sports out there that are as big of a team sport as football. I may be biased because I like football more, but it seems that way to me.

A quarterback needs a good line to give him time, receivers with good hands, a runningback to wear down the defense, and a good defense to keep you off of the sideline.

[MOtorboat]

The thing I hate about statistics is that they try to group so many things when every situation is different. Every player is different and every team is.

I don't believe Roethlisberger would have been successful if he were drafted by the Browns. I don't think any QB for the Browns has had success since I've been born. Just the same, you could stick a few of those "busts" on a great team and he will be considered successful.

I think there aren't many sports out there that are as big of a team sport as football. I may be biased because I like football more, but it seems that way to me.

A quarterback needs a good line to give him time, receivers with good hands, a runningback to wear down the defense, and a good defense to keep you off of the sideline.

Football is the most unknown of the sports of the big three (football, baseball, basketball). Stats can tell stories in the NFL, but they can't tell the whole story like they can in basketball and especially baseball.

[Dapper Dan]

Football is the most unknown of the sports of the big three (football, baseball, basketball). Stats can tell stories in the NFL, but they can't tell the whole story like they can in basketball and especially baseball.

The only thing in the NFL that's certain is that you need a Manning.

[BroncoWave]

We sigened Peyton Manning, finally drafted a DT, have a defensive rookie of the year, and we're coming off a season in which we won the west and a playoff game and all some people can do is whine and bitch about our 2nd 2nd round pick? ******* priceless.

Many Broncos fans aren't happy unless they are complaining about something. We could win the Super Bowl this year and there would be posters here pissed off because we didn't win by enough points or because we didn't go undefeated.

[shank]

Football is the most unknown of the sports of the big three (football, baseball, basketball). Stats can tell stories in the NFL, but they can't tell the whole story like they can in basketball and especially baseball.

the only stat that matters in baseball is on base percentage.

[chazoe60]

the only stat that matters in baseball is on base percentage.

Okay Brad Pitt.

[shank]

Okay Brad Pitt.
my good looks have very little to do with my genius.

[Chef Zambini]

Football is the most unknown of the sports of the big three (football, baseball, basketball). Stats can tell stories in the NFL, but they can't tell the whole story like they can in basketball and especially baseball.
\ regardless of the sport, stats/ schmatz, the only stat that matters is winning versus losing.
winners look at the won /loss column, losers and especially the fans of losers look at stats.
baseball has proliferated the stats phenomenon because it is so damn boring, folks need something to talk about during actual games. people keep scoreto keep from falling asleep in their chairs during the game.
you wont see that at a basketball game!
TEBOW personifies the limited value of stats in football.

in many cases red zone effeciency has more to do with play-calling than performance, shanahan is the greatest example !

and finally, I find it bizzare that the NFL does not track first downs, a valuable stat that indicates an offense, aplayer and run vs pass efficiency.


In baseball you know a guys batting average on thursdays night games, following a rain-out!
in football we have no-one keeping track of how many first downs were made by a runningback.
stats / schmatz !

[MOtorboat]

\ regardless of the sport, stats/ schmatz, the only stat that matters is winning versus losing.
winners look at the won /loss column, losers and especially the fans of losers look at stats.
baseball has proliferated the stats phenomenon because it is so damn boring, folks need something to talk about during actual games. people keep scoreto keep from falling asleep in their chairs during the game.
you wont see that at a basketball game!
TEBOW personifies the limited value of stats in football.

in many cases red zone effeciency has more to do with play-calling than performance, shanahan is the greatest example !

and finally, I find it bizzare that the NFL does not track first downs, a valuable stat that indicates an offense, aplayer and run vs pass efficiency.


In baseball you know a guys batting average on thursdays night games, following a rain-out!
in football we have no-one keeping track of how many first downs were made by a runningback.
stats / schmatz !

"stats / schmaltz"! But I wanna know first downs...

:rolleyes:

[TXBRONC]

Nice Straw Man you have knocked down there. :coffee:

He's NOT guaranteed to fail. Have as much homerism as you like!

But the statistics don't back you up. That's the ONLY Point of this thread.

If you sell your house, go to Vegas and bet all the money on #32 at roulette you COULD win a huge payoff that would make you rich for life.

But, would you be wildly enthusiastic about your chances? About the same odds here as I demonstrated above. :coffee:

The stats don't back me up on what? Nowhere and and mean nowhere did I guarantee success Osweiler. I don't need the actual freakin stats to know the that odds are high that he or any player will succeed. It's not like this exercise hasn't been done on this board before.

Yeah I'm excited but not naive as are several others who have expressed similar views.

[shank]

i'd be interested to know what percentage of brock osweilers that were drafted in 2012 by the denver broncos went on to become successful quarterbacks. i think that would be the best indicator.

i'm willing to do the research, i'll start right now and let you know what i find out in 15 years.

[sneakers]

I would say that Trent edwards and kyle orton were decent on that list.

[sneakers]

But wasn't Joe Montana drafted in the 3rd round?

[Chef Zambini]

my good looks have very little to do with my genius. is this a quote from sarah Pallin?

[Chef Zambini]

Well, i did a little research and although i dont have the exact percentage (and keep in mind this was only going back to the late to mid 70's so the bust list would be even greater) is but here is what i found.


Hall of Fame QB's taken in the first round:

Troy Aikman
John Elway
Jim Kelly
Dan Marino
Sammy Baugh
Terry Bradshaw
Len Dawson
Otto Graham
Bob Griese
Sid Luckman
Joe Namath

Hall of Fame QB's taken in later rounds or undrafted:


George Blanda
Joe Montana
Sonny Jurgensen
Steve Young (supplemental draft, not official draft)
Warren Moon
Bart Starr
Roger Staubach
Fran Tarkenton
Johnny Unitas


Current/Past QB's who are/were elite and possible HOF'rs:

Kurt Warner (Undrafted)
Tom Brady (6th round)
Peyton Manning
Eli Manning
Ben Roethlesberger
Aaron Rodgers
Jim Plunkett


QB's taken in the first round that busted:

Todd Blackledge
Kelly Stouffer
Andre Ware
David Klinger
Heath Shuler
Tim Couch
Akili Smith
Cade McNown
Vince Young
Tommy Maddox
Rick Mirer
Jim Druckenmiller
Ryan Leaf
Tim Couch
Joey Harrington
J.P. Losman
Matt Leinart
JaMarcus Russell
David Carr
Art Schlichter
Chris Miller
Kyle Boller
Jim Harbaugh
Brady Quinn
Chuck Long
Jeff George
Byron Leftwich
Steve Fuller
Daunte Culpepper
Tommy Kramer
Archie Manning
Chad Pennington
Todd Marinovich
Mark Malone
Dan McGwire
Jim Everett
Jason Campbell
Patrick Ramsey
Tony Eason


QB's taken in the first that still have question marks:

Alex Smith
Michael Vick
Matt Stafford
Jay Cutler
Sam Bradford
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Ryan Tannehill
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Cam Newton
Carson Palmer
Brandon Weeden
Tim Tebow
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Mark Sanchez
Philip Rivers
Josh Freeman
Jake Locker


QB's that were first rounders that had solid/average careers with some even making and winning Super Bowls:

Rex Grossman
Kerry Collins
Jim McMahon
Drew Bledsoe
Phil Simms
Ken O'Brien
Donovan McNabb
Trent Dilfer
Vinny Testeverde
Doug Williams
Steve McNairthank you for this post! it reveals that the chances of being a superbowl winning QB has more to do with far greater elements than just the QBs draft position, talent and intangeables.
roll of the dice9crap shoot) more like beting on a single number on a roulette wheel.
brock O, place your bets, I hope he pays off
because in reality he is an investment in our future comparable to making a bet at a table in vegas.

[silkamilkamonico]

Well, i did a little research and although i dont have the exact percentage (and keep in mind this was only going back to the late to mid 70's so the bust list would be even greater) is but here is what i found.


Hall of Fame QB's taken in the first round:

Troy Aikman
John Elway
Jim Kelly
Dan Marino
Sammy Baugh
Terry Bradshaw
Len Dawson
Otto Graham
Bob Griese
Sid Luckman
Joe Namath

Hall of Fame QB's taken in later rounds or undrafted:


George Blanda
Joe Montana
Sonny Jurgensen
Steve Young (supplemental draft, not official draft)
Warren Moon
Bart Starr
Roger Staubach
Fran Tarkenton
Johnny Unitas


Current/Past QB's who are/were elite and possible HOF'rs:

Kurt Warner (Undrafted)
Tom Brady (6th round)
Peyton Manning
Eli Manning
Ben Roethlesberger
Aaron Rodgers
Jim Plunkett


QB's taken in the first round that busted:

Todd Blackledge
Kelly Stouffer
Andre Ware
David Klinger
Heath Shuler
Tim Couch
Akili Smith
Cade McNown
Vince Young
Tommy Maddox
Rick Mirer
Jim Druckenmiller
Ryan Leaf
Tim Couch
Joey Harrington
J.P. Losman
Matt Leinart
JaMarcus Russell
David Carr
Art Schlichter
Chris Miller
Kyle Boller
Jim Harbaugh
Brady Quinn
Chuck Long
Jeff George
Byron Leftwich
Steve Fuller
Daunte Culpepper
Tommy Kramer
Archie Manning
Chad Pennington
Todd Marinovich
Mark Malone
Dan McGwire
Jim Everett
Jason Campbell
Patrick Ramsey
Tony Eason


QB's taken in the first that still have question marks:

Alex Smith
Michael Vick
Matt Stafford
Jay Cutler
Sam Bradford
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin III
Ryan Tannehill
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Cam Newton
Carson Palmer
Brandon Weeden
Tim Tebow
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Mark Sanchez
Philip Rivers
Josh Freeman
Jake Locker


QB's that were first rounders that had solid/average careers with some even making and winning Super Bowls:

Rex Grossman
Kerry Collins
Jim McMahon
Drew Bledsoe
Phil Simms
Ken O'Brien
Donovan McNabb
Trent Dilfer
Vinny Testeverde
Doug Williams
Steve McNair


Great post.

This clearly shows me that there is no concern about taking a chance on Brock with the second round pick, and I honestly feel better about now more than ever. Maybe he becomes great. Maybe he gets cut. Regardless, I feel like one think that's been clearly overlooked in this argument is the system/atmosphere that a QB goes too, and I believe if Brock is going to be a successful starter in the NFL, if he can't do it here he won't do it anymore.

[WARHORSE]

The past draft history doesnt mean anything for Ozzy.

He can break the mold.

Most kids cant come in and sit for three years under a hall of famer either.........this will be an advantage.

[Cugel]

So I guess unless you're picking in the top ten you should never pick a QB. Why haven't the idiots who get paid to do this stuff not realized this? Why has any QB ever been taken outside of the first round, I mean it's so obvious that they never work out?

This is the Question most of the posters in this thread have missed. It's THE important question.

Postulate #1: The goal of any team is to win the SB.

Postulate #2: Due to rule changes favoring passing, having an elite QB is now necessary to win the SB (see the list of SB winning QBs the last 2 decades for proof).

Postulate #3: The converse is also true. If you don't have an elite QB you realistically have NO chance of winning the SB (although you might well make the playoffs).

Postulate #4: Damn few QBs drafted outside the 1st round ever become franchise QBs and NONE in the last 12 years has become an elite QB (aside from Drew Brees who was drafted #32 overall).

Given all this, logically the ONLY way to win the SB is to "suck for Luck." Tank a season, get the top overall pick or at least a top 10-15 pick and draft one of the top 2 QBs in that draft class.

Then you train that QB and hope you made the right choice.

So, WHY don't NFL GMs ever do this?

HERE's why:


"The day after a season-ending loss at Jacksonville assured Indy of the No. 1 draft pick in April with a 2-14 mark, [Colts owner] Irsay fired team vice chairman Bill Polian, the architect of the Colts' success, and his son, Chris, the hand-picked general manager."

Then Irsay and Ryan Grigson, the new GM got together and fired Colts Head Coach Jim Caldwell, together with his entire coaching staff.

They totally cleaned house and brought in Ravens DC Chuck Pagano as HC.

Now, are the Colts better off sucking for ONE season, then drafting Andrew Luck, or are they better off having a Brock Osweiler ready to go when Manning went down?

Well, unless Osweiler vastly exceeds the statistical odds, they're VASTLY better off sucking for Luck.

Otherwise they are going to be mediocre at best for a few years until they once again have a SUCKY season and get to draft a potential elite QB.

A perfect example of this is Mike Shanahan. He was a good enough coach that his crappy teams with "adequate" QBs like Griese and Plummer went 8-8, 9-7 every year. Both QBs played 10+ seasons in the NFL. That's a successful career.

They NEVER were good enough to have a chance at winning the SB (even in 2005 when everything went right) and never bad enough to get a top draft pick. Eventually Shanny used the #11 pick to grab Jay Cutler, but his defenses still sucked and Bowlen got tired of endless mediocrity and FIRED Shanny and his entire staff.

But, Polian and Caldwell and the entire Colts staff are certainly NOT "better off!" and neither would EFX be "better off" "sucking for Luck" after Manning retires.

THAT's why Elway says that "we needed a QB" and why they drafted Osweiler as a "developmental QB" even though the odds of his ever becoming a SB winning QB are not that red hot. Elway's trying to avoid having to tank a season after Manning retires.

NFL Exec's are responsible for winning games and they can't accept a 6-10 season, and 2-14 gets you fired almost every time.

But, from the fan's perspective it's unavoidable to suck for a season, then draft a top 10 QB and hope for the best. So, logically that's what they should hope for.

It's better than years of mediocrity with no hope of winning the SB.

Just ask the Colts fans this year!

[Cugel]

Hall of Fame QB's taken in the first round:

Troy Aikman
John Elway
Jim Kelly
Dan Marino
Sammy Baugh
Terry Bradshaw
Len Dawson
Otto Graham
Bob Griese
Sid Luckman
Joe Namath

Hall of Fame QB's taken in later rounds or undrafted:


George Blanda
Joe Montana
Sonny Jurgensen
Steve Young (supplemental draft, not official draft)
Warren Moon
Bart Starr
Roger Staubach
Fran Tarkenton
Johnny Unitas

This ain't the 50's or 60's NFL baby. Times have changed. Does anybody think you could win the SB today with George Blanda? And, as other posters have commented, Steve Young doesn't count. :coffee:

Scouting today is VASTLY different. Teams had a LOT less info on players in the past and often missed on great players. Today EVERY prospect is scouted and evaluated 15 different ways. They're not going to miss some kid from a junior college who has the potential to be great.

That doesn't mean nobody makes mistakes. It just means that fewer elite prospects fall outside the top rounds. Drafting is simply better, not perfect.

There's still an element of chance, and many prospects who have the "upside potential" to be great never realize that "potential" for various reasons. So, all you fans who want to believe that Brock Osweiler is going to become a Hall of Fame QB. . . . you could be right!

[pipes]

thank you for this post! it reveals that the chances of being a superbowl winning QB has more to do with far greater elements than just the QBs draft position, talent and intangeables.
roll of the dice9crap shoot) more like beting on a single number on a roulette wheel.
brock O, place your bets, I hope he pays off
because in reality he is an investment in our future comparable to making a bet at a table in vegas.

I'm a little confused that you included Culpepper, Manning, and Pennington in your bust category then put Grossman in your ok list?!

[Chef Zambini]

I'm a little confused that you included Culpepper, Manning, and Pennington in your bust category then put Grossman in your ok list?!thatv wasnot MY list, regardless it indicates that the draft is no guarantee, especially at the QB position. there are more busts than winners in round one, and guys taken in round 3 and even further back can also become top performers, even hall of famers and superbowl winners.
Its hard for me to justify using our second pick in this years draft on ANY, QB, with so many other NEEDS and the limited window of opportunity that MANNING provides, that pick could have been used to improve our defense or give our offense/ manning another weapon !
Its not like the next 3 or 4 drafts would not provide another viable candidate for the job.
oh well, whats done is done, I hope it comes up roses.

[Chef Zambini]

This ain't the 50's or 60's NFL baby. Times have changed. Does anybody think you could win the SB today with George Blanda? And, as other posters have commented, Steve Young doesn't count. :coffee:

Scouting today is VASTLY different. Teams had a LOT less info on players in the past and often missed on great players. Today EVERY prospect is scouted and evaluated 15 different ways. They're not going to miss some kid from a junior college who has the potential to be great.

That doesn't mean nobody makes mistakes. It just means that fewer elite prospects fall outside the top rounds. Drafting is simply better, not perfect.

There's still an element of chance, and many prospects who have the "upside potential" to be great never realize that "potential" for various reasons. So, all you fans who want to believe that Brock Osweiler is going to become a Hall of Fame QB. . . . you could be right!
absolutely, in this new millenium, all these talent scouts and NFL franchises are far too sophistcated to make these kinds of.. oh wait, jemarcus russel, colt mccoy. andy dalton passed over by most teams, some TWICE
yep, its a science, just like rocket surgery.
kurt warner , there is a reason why all NFL teams passed on the no talent ass-clown.
tom brady, he got lucky, not exactly the kind of guy all teams scout and research like a second pick over-all ryan leaf.
these talent evaluators are proffesionals!
who are we to doubt their methods and results?
kellen moore has zero chance, just like kurt warner and warren moon.
he's too small!
just like the smallest horse in the kentucky derby yesterday, 'I'll have another"
no way he comes out a winner !
oops !

[Chef Zambini]

Great post.

This clearly shows me that there is no concern about taking a chance on Brock with the second round pick, and I honestly feel better about now more than ever. Maybe he becomes great. Maybe he gets cut. Regardless, I feel like one think that's been clearly overlooked in this argument is the system/atmosphere that a QB goes too, and I believe if Brock is going to be a successful starter in the NFL, if he can't do it here he won't do it anymore.the sytem and atmosphere obviosly have alot to do with success.
so it is for ANY candidate, so the rush to bring in brockO this year,and using our SECOND pick to do so, with so many other needs seems unjustified !
therfore i say poop. I would rather have better talent on our defense than brock and his clipboard.
poopdiddilyoop.

[Chef Zambini]

The past draft history doesnt mean anything for Ozzy.

He can break the mold.

Most kids cant come in and sit for three years under a hall of famer either.........this will be an advantage.recently, MANY rookie NFL QBs have come in and started, day one and been very successful, its now almost become the NORM!
big ben,
matt ryan
matt moore
cam newton
andy dalton
the ravens QB,
luck and RG3 will also be added to the list, heck, aaron rogers might have been a winner right out of the boix, he just had a HOF'er in his way!
sitting for 3 years is no guarantee of success, and these days it seems a luxury, especialy when you use one of your top picks on a guy !with so many other needs, I can only see the brocko selection as frivilous, I only hope that in time, 4 f'n years time, the use of our second pick overall will be justified!
its so unlikely that any other understudy would come around in the next 4 years, given that the NCAA is such a limited talent pool.
again I say frivilous!

[Cugel]

absolutely, in this new millenium, all these talent scouts and NFL franchises are far too sophistcated to make these kinds of.. oh wait, jemarcus russel, colt mccoy. andy dalton passed over by most teams, some TWICE
yep, its a science, just like rocket surgery.
kurt warner , there is a reason why all NFL teams passed on the no talent ass-clown.
tom brady, he got lucky, not exactly the kind of guy all teams scout and research like a second pick over-all ryan leaf.
these talent evaluators are proffesionals!
who are we to doubt their methods and results?
kellen moore has zero chance, just like kurt warner and warren moon.
he's too small!
just like the smallest horse in the kentucky derby yesterday, 'I'll have another"
no way he comes out a winner !
oops !

Here's a tip that may help you understand what I'm talking about.

Was JaWalrus Russell really a 1st round prospect or not?

Did the Scouting really "miss" on him being a colossal bust?

Actually, no. He was exactly as advertised. A top PROSPECT, with elite athleticism and skill.

The intangible factor that NO scouting system can measure is this: "will this kid do the solid work that is necessary to become a good or elite NFL starting QB?

"Will he get up at 5:00 AM on a Tuesday morning in late February and get started on his day, because he's driven to get better?

"Will he pay attention in meetings? Will he listen and absorb what the coaches are saying? Will he have the character over the next decade to become the QB that our scouts are telling us his TALENT level can let him become."

And with Jawalrus, the answer was a big, fat NO! :coffee:

Busts happen most often, NOT because scouts mis-evaluate first round talent, but because nobody can measure what's going to happen when a 23 year old is given a $50 million contract and told "OK, now you're a super-star kid, but you need to keep your nose to the grind-stone."

Busts happen, especially at QB because this is hard work. There's no off-season anymore. And the pressure is enormous. Some kids just don't manage the transition.

Same thing happens to QBs drafted in the later rounds. BUT, the converse is VERY RARELY TRUE!

A kid with tons of determination, and not as much talent, VERY RARELY becomes a good, let alone elite QB!

This ain't "Hoosiers". This is the NFL. It takes ELITE TALENT PLUS ELITE DETERMINATION to become the best. Elway was Elway because he was as competitive as Tim Tebow, and worked as hard as Tim Tebow, but he had a much better arm and throwing accuracy.

In short, he was a better athlete with his arm and brain, (not his legs).

And ELITE TALENT gets drafted in the first round. Very rarely will a QB with elite talent fall to the 2nd anymore.


JaWalrus had every tool needed to succeed in the NFL, except the one key thing -- the determination and self-discipline.

The scouts weren't "wrong" because they can only measure the talent. The Raiders made a mistake because it couldn't look into the human heart and see the selfishness, the indulgence waiting to happen.

Notice that there just aren't many examples of QBs drafted outside the 1st round IN THE LAST 12 years becoming good, let alone elite QBs.

And you have to go back and look at the fossilized ancient history of the 50's and 60's and drag in QBs like Blanda and Sonny Jurgenson to make a point, that is no longer valid.

That it's "as easy to find an elite QB outside the 1st round as in it."

Well, that's flat false. Period. In the past, elite throwing ability didn't matter as much because you could win with a smart, determined QB, a great defense and a running game. Was Joe Thiesman or Jim Plunkett an elite QB they met in the SB in Jan. 1984)? Plunkett won a SB, and Joe played in back to back SBs, won one, was the league MVP and is in the Hall of Fame, but he wouldn't be considered an elite passing QB in today's NFL.

All the elite prospects get taken early these days. But, some of them still fail because they just don't have the determination to succeed.

[Cugel]

If you guys want an example of what hard work and determination will get you if you don't have elite (or even very good) talent, take a look at Kyle Orton.

He was drafted in the 4th round because he wasn't all that talented a prospect. Doesn't have a great arm, not much athleticism.

But, he worked hard, tried to learn as much as possible and does his job. He's an "over-achiever". He's the OPPOSITE of JaWalrus Russell, but he'll NEVER be a good starting QB, let alone elite, because he's just not talented enough or athletic enough.

If you put Orton's brain in JaWalrus's body he'd probably lose about 60 lbs. and become an elite or at least a very good QB. :laugh:

[bcbronc]

Its funny that cugel thinks he's providing some deep and meaningful insight but really he's just talking in circles and saying nothing that's not obvious to everyone. :lol:

[Dapper Dan]

Its funny that cugel thinks he's providing some deep and meaningful insight but really he's just talking in circles and saying nothing that's not obvious to everyone. :lol:

He may not have all the tools, but he's working hard. Like Kyle Orton. If only I had Kyle Orton's brain. I just want to lose about 30 pounds.

[iLands]

The statistic is irrelevant to the individual.

I love the pick and how it improves us across the board.

I love that the value vests.

I love that our QBotF was around from day one of the installation of our new offense.

Unsexy, necessary, and we'll be thankful down the road.

[Nomad]

Time will tell. We can hope is about all.

True! Is it August yet? Though I should enjoy the little bit of summer we get here:lol:

[Simple Jaded]

Osweiler's draft position is worth it, imo, he has the skills to play the position but he'll spend his ages 21-23 or 24 seasons learning at the pro level instead of starting at the college level. Aside from playing time this is an ideal situation. I still don't think Osweiler should be counted on to be the heir apparent but you really couldn't ask for a better situation.

There simply is not a more important position in all of sports, imo, and the Broncos have future HoFer with a huge chip on his shoulder and a really young prospect watching his every move. The 3rd string QB isn't much worse than last years starter, few teams have such a healthy QB situation.

I get that the Broncos could have, and probably should have, used that 2nd round pick on another position but, A; you could say that about the other draft choices too, and, B; it's not like it's the last draft the Broncos will ever have.

I'm starting to really like the pick, even if Osweiler is not the heir apparent. Apparently the Broncos consider him the QBotF and if so there is no better time than NOW to get that player. I've been saying it since they traded Jay Cutler, you don't build a team and then find a QB, that's ass-backwards. You get your QB and then build around him.......

[Dapper Dan]

..The 3rd string QB isn't much worse than last years starter...

Sad. I agreed with you 100% and you couldn't help but say something so completely unnecessary.

[Simple Jaded]

Sad. I agreed with you 100% and you couldn't help but say something so completely unnecessary.
It's not unnecessary, it's an assessment of the Broncos QB situation and how much it has improved. Why do people get so upset over it? It is sad but it's the Gods honest truth. Put last years starter in Chicago's offense (Hanie's offense) and it's even worse.......

[Dapper Dan]

It's not unnecessary, it's an assessment of the Broncos QB situation and how much it has improved. Why do people get so upset over it? It is sad but it's the Gods honest truth. Put last years starter in Chicago's offense (Hanie's offense) and it's even worse.......

Tim Tebow is a lot better quaterback than Caleb Hanie. You obviously dislike him so much as a quaterback. Why do you keep on with these cheap shots? Just give it a rest already.


Also, it's suppose to be an assessment now and in the future. Stop living in the past. It's over.

[shank]

I just researched every pick ever taken as well as each player's career, and i'll be damned if cugel isn't exactly right with is analysis. Here are the results:

Pick # Success Rate %
1 99.9
2 99.5
3 99.1
4 98.7
5 98.3
6 97.9
7 97.5
8 97.1
9 96.7
10 96.3
11 95.9
12 95.5
13 95.1
14 94.7
15 94.3
16 93.9
17 93.5
18 93.1
19 92.7
20 92.3
21 91.9
22 91.5
23 91.1
24 90.7
25 90.3
26 89.9
27 89.5
28 89.1
29 88.7
30 88.3
31 87.9
32 87.5
33 87.1
34 86.7
35 86.3
36 85.9
37 85.5
38 85.1
39 84.7
40 84.3
41 83.9
42 83.5
43 83.1
44 82.7
45 82.3
46 81.9
47 81.5
48 81.1
49 80.7
50 80.3
51 79.9
52 79.5
53 79.1
54 78.7
55 78.3
56 77.9
57 0.4
58 77.5
59 77.1
60 76.7
61 76.3
62 75.9
63 75.5
64 75.1
65 74.7
66 74.3
67 73.9
68 73.5
69 73.1
...

[Chef Zambini]

Here's a tip that may help you understand what I'm talking about.

Was JaWalrus Russell really a 1st round prospect or not?

Did the Scouting really "miss" on him being a colossal bust?

Actually, no. He was exactly as advertised. A top PROSPECT, with elite athleticism and skill.

The intangible factor that NO scouting system can measure is this: "will this kid do the solid work that is necessary to become a good or elite NFL starting QB?

"Will he get up at 5:00 AM on a Tuesday morning in late February and get started on his day, because he's driven to get better?

"Will he pay attention in meetings? Will he listen and absorb what the coaches are saying? Will he have the character over the next decade to become the QB that our scouts are telling us his TALENT level can let him become."

And with Jawalrus, the answer was a big, fat NO! :coffee:

Busts happen most often, NOT because scouts mis-evaluate first round talent, but because nobody can measure what's going to happen when a 23 year old is given a $50 million contract and told "OK, now you're a super-star kid, but you need to keep your nose to the grind-stone."

Busts happen, especially at QB because this is hard work. There's no off-season anymore. And the pressure is enormous. Some kids just don't manage the transition.

Same thing happens to QBs drafted in the later rounds. BUT, the converse is VERY RARELY TRUE!

A kid with tons of determination, and not as much talent, VERY RARELY becomes a good, let alone elite QB!

This ain't "Hoosiers". This is the NFL. It takes ELITE TALENT PLUS ELITE DETERMINATION to become the best. Elway was Elway because he was as competitive as Tim Tebow, and worked as hard as Tim Tebow, but he had a much better arm and throwing accuracy.

In short, he was a better athlete with his arm and brain, (not his legs).

And ELITE TALENT gets drafted in the first round. Very rarely will a QB with elite talent fall to the 2nd anymore.


JaWalrus had every tool needed to succeed in the NFL, except the one key thing -- the determination and self-discipline.

The scouts weren't "wrong" because they can only measure the talent. The Raiders made a mistake because it couldn't look into the human heart and see the selfishness, the indulgence waiting to happen.

Notice that there just aren't many examples of QBs drafted outside the 1st round IN THE LAST 12 years becoming good, let alone elite QBs.

And you have to go back and look at the fossilized ancient history of the 50's and 60's and drag in QBs like Blanda and Sonny Jurgenson to make a point, that is no longer valid.

That it's "as easy to find an elite QB outside the 1st round as in it."

Well, that's flat false. Period. In the past, elite throwing ability didn't matter as much because you could win with a smart, determined QB, a great defense and a running game. Was Joe Thiesman or Jim Plunkett an elite QB they met in the SB in Jan. 1984)? Plunkett won a SB, and Joe played in back to back SBs, won one, was the league MVP and is in the Hall of Fame, but he wouldn't be considered an elite passing QB in today's NFL.

All the elite prospects get taken early these days. But, some of them still fail because they just don't have the determination to succeed.I dont disagree with these comments, in fact I think they reflect what I already said.
you excuse the evaluators for not recognizing jawalrus. mental deficiencies wheras i say that should have been part of the evaluation process!
iF i AM GOING TO GIVE SOMEBODY MILLIONS OF DOLLARS TO LEAD MY TEAM, I WANT TO KNOW AS MUCH AS I can about his 'character".
character, one of the reasons why an undrafted guy like rod smith succeeds and a a QB like kellen moore will transcend his short-comings.

[Simple Jaded]

Tim Tebow is a lot better quaterback than Caleb Hanie. You obviously dislike him so much as a quaterback. Why do you keep on with these cheap shots? Just give it a rest already.


Also, it's suppose to be an assessment now and in the future. Stop living in the past. It's over. It's not a F'n cheap shot, it's the truth. Tebow has holes in his game that Hanie does not. I think they were both dead last or close to it as 3rd down QB's and in 3-and-outs. But if you put Tebow in Martz's offense and he's beyond screwed, put Hanie in Denver's pre-Detroit game offense and it literally can't get any worse than it turned out to be with Tebow. If the name on the back of Tebow's jersey was Van Pelt instead he'd be out of the league and you wouldn't have an issue with my so-called cheap shots.

"it's suppose to be an assessment now and in the future". Says who, exactly? You?

The Broncos went from the worst QB situation in the league to one of the best, that's my assessment and it's not subject to your parameters or approval.

Btw, I didn't say Hanie was a better QB, just that he's not much worse than last years starter, and considering he's the 3rd stringer that speaks volumes about how much the Broncos have improved at the position. Which was my point to begin with.......

[Dapper Dan]

It's not a F'n cheap shot, it's the truth. Tebow has holes in his game that Hanie does not. I think they were both dead last or close to it as 3rd down QB's and in 3-and-outs. But if you put Tebow in Martz's offense and he's beyond screwed, put Hanie in Denver's pre-Detroit game offense and it literally can't get any worse than it turned out to be with Tebow. If the name on the back of Tebow's jersey was Van Pelt instead he'd be out of the league and you wouldn't have an issue with my so-called cheap shots.

"it's suppose to be an assessment now and in the future". Says who, exactly? You?

The Broncos went from the worst QB situation in the league to one of the best, that's my assessment and it's not subject to your parameters or approval.

Btw, I didn't say Hanie was a better QB, just that he's not much worse than last years starter, and considering he's the 3rd stringer that speaks volumes about how much the Broncos have improved at the position. Which was my point to begin with.......

I can already see this going nowhere so I'll stop now. Any team I say had a worse QB situation, you'll say they struggled because they were on a bad team and that any success that "our previous starter" had was because he was on a good team. I'll stop my side of the argument because we won't get anywhere.

[Simple Jaded]

Any team you name had a starter that could complete routine passes that Denver took for granted until Tebow became the starter. I'm not exaggerating, there are backups that can easily hit the passes Tebow struggled with. How many teams can say that about their starter?

Until he improves drastically Tebow is the worst passer in the entire league, but what made it the worst situation in the league was the fact that the Broncos were stuck between a rock (Tebow) and a hard place (his ridiculous fans).

Btw, I'm not talking about team success, so I wouldn't be using that as an excuse for anybody.......

[Dapper Dan]

Any team you name had a starter that could complete routine passes that Denver took for granted until Tebow became the starter. I'm not exaggerating, there are backups that can easily hit the passes Tebow struggled with. Hell, give the average fan two years with NFL coaching and they could go out there and consistently throw a 10 yard dig in the dirt 5 yards short of the receiver. How many teams can say that about their starter?

Until he improves drastically Tebow is the worst passer in the entire league, but what made it the worst situation in the league was the fact that the Broncos were stuck between a rock (Tebow) and a hard place (his ridiculous fans).......

This made me LOL.

[silkamilkamonico]

Tebow has holes in his game that Hanie does not.

Hanie has holes in his game that Tebow does not.

I'm sorry I couldn't read past this argumet. I don't like Tebow a a QB for my franchise, but he's 10X the QB that Caleb Hanie is. That is a testament to how terrible Hanie is as a Qb, not how good Tebow is.

Caleb Hanie is garbage and I hope his ass gets booted out on the street along with Adam Webber this afternoon.

[Jsteve01]

I love all the absolutes people use when talking about Hanie. He came in after getting zero reps and got to play with no Forte, a punch line for a receiving corps and the worst line in all of football. I for one haven't written him off yet. hell maybe he's just camp fodder but I'm willing to give him a shot as our 3rd string qb lol

[silkamilkamonico]

Hanie's garbage and will be out of the NFL in 2 years.

This is Caleb Hanie we are talking about.

[MOtorboat]

Hanie's garbage and will be out of the NFL in 2 years.

This is Caleb Hanie we are talking about.

Despite the fact that he's entering his fifth season?

[Jsteve01]

Hanie's garbage and will be out of the NFL in 2 years.

This is Caleb Hanie we are talking about.

again with the absolutes...i guess you're another of the vaunted Broncos fans that does a better job of player eval than our F.O. How many hanie games have you watched in their entirety? How much practice time have you watched? College game tape? Just wondering?

[Dapper Dan]

Despite the fact that he's entering his fifth season?

I'm pretty sure he means 2 years from now.

[Dapper Dan]

again with the absolutes...i guess you're another of the vaunted Broncos fans that does a better job of player eval than our F.O. How many hanie games have you watched in their entirety? How much practice time have you watched? College game tape? Just wondering?

He's third string. What's the big deal exactly?

Where were you earlier when a guy was trashing "our previous starter"? You never popped up to ask how much game and practice film etc. has he watched. Just wondering.

People are so quick to take up for Caleb Hanie. Dang Hanies taking over the board.

[Jsteve01]

He's third string. What's the big deal exactly?

Where were you earlier when a guy was trashing "our previous starter"? You never popped up to ask how much game and practice film etc. has he watched. Just wondering.

People are so quick to take up for Caleb Hanie. Dang Hanies taking over the board.

Tebow isn't on our team any longer and I have avoided getting into those arguments. I wanted Tebow to have more opportunity. His effed up fan base (non bronco fans) ruined any possibility of that happening. So now he gets to endure the Big Apple

[NightTerror218]

again with the absolutes...i guess you're another of the vaunted Broncos fans that does a better job of player eval than our F.O. How many hanie games have you watched in their entirety? How much practice time have you watched? College game tape? Just wondering?

I watched a good amount when Culter went down. He is not impressive. My buddy (cubical next to mine) is a huge Bears fan and he thanked me for signing him so they didn't.

[Jsteve01]

I watched a good amount when Culter went down. He is not impressive. My buddy (cubical next to mine) is a huge Bears fan and he thanked me for signing him so they didn't.

again...there are only a few qbs in the league that would perform there. You have to be athletic and have a quick release because the heat is coming on every down. Not an ideal situation for a young qb to get thrust into. Think Andrew walter in Oakland. I'll trust that he's ok for what he is: a backup qb with a good arm and decent athleticism

[NightTerror218]

again...there are only a few qbs in the league that would perform there. You have to be athletic and have a quick release because the heat is coming on every down. Not an ideal situation for a young qb to get thrust into. Think Andrew walter in Oakland. I'll trust that he's ok for what he is: a backup qb with a good arm and decent athleticism

He is a native Coloradoan (Buff) and he back up while Osweiler is being brought up slow. But I bet money if manning is pulled in a game, Osweiler will get the snaps. Just for the experience since he will be pulled in a blow out or if we locked playoff appearance.

[BigDaddyBronco]

again with the absolutes...i guess you're another of the vaunted Broncos fans that does a better job of player eval than our F.O. How many hanie games have you watched in their entirety? How much practice time have you watched? College game tape? Just wondering?

He looked better against Green Bay during that playoff game a couple years ago than Cutler did. You know the one where Cutler bruised his knee and vagina at the same time.

[Jsteve01]

He looked better against Green Bay during that playoff game a couple years ago than Cutler did. You know the one where Cutler bruised his knee and vagina at the same time.

And then was able to climb stairs to go to dinner with his attractive actress girlfriend a few hours later? You mean that game?

[Jsteve01]

He is a native Coloradoan (Buff) and he back up while Osweiler is being brought up slow. But I bet money if manning is pulled in a game, Osweiler will get the snaps. Just for the experience since he will be pulled in a blow out or if we locked playoff appearance.

He played at Colorado State not CU. I read an article in the National Football Post about him last year by the scout from the Bears who pushed to sign him. I like him as a backup.

[Simple Jaded]

Hanie has holes in his game that Tebow does not.

I'm sorry I couldn't read past this argumet. I don't like Tebow a a QB for my franchise, but he's 10X the QB that Caleb Hanie is. That is a testament to how terrible Hanie is as a Qb, not how good Tebow is.

Caleb Hanie is garbage and I hope his ass gets booted out on the street along with Adam Webber this afternoon.

They're both garbage, I'll take the one that doesn't complete as many passes to Joe Sixpack in Row 10, Section 100 as he does his own TE's.......

[Simple Jaded]

Just say No to Haniemania, That Hanie Thing is gonna fracture the lockerroom.......

[Jsteve01]

Just say No to Haniemania, That Hanie Thing is gonna fracture the lockerroom.......

well said

[TXBRONC]

I'm sure what some of you guys want out of Hanie. The pool of capable back up quarterbacks is an inch deep. While I have no doubt that every team in the League would love to have a back up quarterback that could step in and take their respective teams to the playoffs. I don't care who are back up quarterback is if Manning goes down we're in deep shit.

[Dapper Dan]

I'm sure what some of you guys want out of Hanie. The pool of capable back up quarterbacks is an inch deep. While I have no doubt that every team in the League would love to have a back up quarterback that could step in and take their respective teams to the playoffs. I don't care who are back up quarterback is if Manning goes we're in deep shit.

We're going with plan A!

[TXBRONC]

We're going with plan A!

Ya think? ;)

[Npba900]

I decided to look just at the percentages of QBs taken at #57 or later in the 2nd round or 3rd round (only). I'm not including late round scrubs who never had a chance, many of whom were around for a cup of coffee or spent some time on the developmental squad but never made a start.

I'm not going to argue that Osweiler WILL be a bust because NOBODY can know that. EFX like him and will try and develop him and we'll see.

But according to simple statistics it's a Long-Shot at best. About 5% chance he ever becomes a decent starter (not even elite QB, because that hasn't happened in the last 12 years, but decent starter).

2010

Jimmy Clausen #48
Colt McCoy #85

2009
Pat White #44

2008
Brian Brohme #56
Chad Henne #57

2007
Kevin Kolb #36
Brian Beck #40
Drew Stanton #43
Trent Edwards #92

2006
Kellen Clemmens #49
Tavaris Jackson #64
Charlie Whitehurst #81
Brodie Croyle #85

2005
Charlie Frye #67
Andrew Walther #69
David Greene #85
Kyle Orton #106

2004
Matt Shaub #90

2003
David Ragone #88
Chris Simms #97

2002
Josh McCown #81

2001
Drew Brees #32 (1st pick of the 2nd)
Quincy Carter #53
Marques Tuiaososopo # 59

2000
Giovanni Carmazzi #65
Chris Redmond #75

Drew Brees was the only elite QB drafted in the 2nd round or later in the last 12 years, but he was the #32 pick, basically a first rounder.

Notice that Matt Shaub is the ONLY QB taken at #57 or later who is any good at all. He's not considered an elite QB but he is decent.
And NO, Kyle Orton doesn't count.

So, just looking at STATS, your chances are about 1 in 20 or 5% that Osweiler will ever be any good.

And NO, once again, don't bother arguing that you have confidence in Elway or something equally irrelevant.

He could be good, great or completely worthless. We just don't know at this point.

I'm just pointing out the odds. Vegas is filled with broke losers who bet against the House. Once in a while someone hits the jackpot, that's all.

Interesting analysis. Here's my thoughts. Lets look at Brady over the last 8-10 years. Brady who was not the consistent starter while in college and was drafted in the 6th round. Brady as been to the SB 5 times, winning 3 and losing twice!

Point is, there are so many variables that go into play with teams rolling the dice drafting its' future franchise QB. How do we not know that Oswieler(sp) isn't another Tom Brady coming out of college? No one in their wildest dreams (Belichick included) thought a scrawny 6'5-190lb QB out of Michigan, drafted in the 6th round by the name of Tom Bradly would ever reach the stardom and level of success he has attained today.

Has anyone compared Osweiler talent level in college vs Tom Brady's talent level in college? I'm thinking there isn't much difference or gap in that regard.

Here's a BIG "IF".......If Brock has enough moxy between his ears, a heart of un-measured perseverance and hard work not to fail, which are all the attributes that Brady possessed back in 1999-present, there is no telling how far Brock's natural talents can take him.

I believe with the right development and the system Osweiler is in right now, we could be very well be looking at the next Tom Brady in 2-3 years. You just never know.

[TimHippo]

i believe with the right development and the system osweiler is in right now, we could be very well be looking at the next tom brady in 2-3 years. You just never know.

lmao.

[Cugel]

Interesting analysis. Here's my thoughts. Lets look at Brady over the last 8-10 years. Brady who was not the consistent starter while in college and was drafted in the 6th round. Brady as been to the SB 5 times, winning 3 and losing twice!

Point is, there are so many variables that go into play with teams rolling the dice drafting its' future franchise QB. How do we not know that Oswieler(sp) isn't another Tom Brady coming out of college? No one in their wildest dreams (Belichick included) thought a scrawny 6'5-190lb QB out of Michigan, drafted in the 6th round by the name of Tom Bradly would ever reach the stardom and level of success he has attained today.

Has anyone compared Osweiler talent level in college vs Tom Brady's talent level in college? I'm thinking there isn't much difference or gap in that regard.

Here's a BIG "IF".......If Brock has enough moxy between his ears, a heart of un-measured perseverance and hard work not to fail, which are all the attributes that Brady possessed back in 1999-present, there is no telling how far Brock's natural talents can take him.

I believe with the right development and the system Osweiler is in right now, we could be very well be looking at the next Tom Brady in 2-3 years. You just never know.

Of course it's possible. :rolleyes:

NOBODY can prove at this point that Brock Osweiler ISN'T the next Peyton Manning or Tom Brady or Aaron Rogers. Aaron Rogers wasn't Aaron Rogers when he was drafted at #24. He was an unproven rookie QB.

Just like nobody could prove after the draft in 2009 that Pat White (#44) wouldn't become the next Tom Brady or Brian Brohme #57 in 2008 wouldn't become the next Aaron Rogers.

It's just wildly unlikely.

All my analysis proves is that it's wildly unlikely BECAUSE most elite QBs are drafted at the top of the 1st round (and a lot of mediocre QBs too).

Someone has to win the $100 million powerball lotto and Denver has a ticket. I just wouldn't start planning how you're going to spend all those millions. :coffee:

But, it hasn't happened at all in the last 10 years that a QB taken after #32 in the draft has become an elite QB and only ONCE has he become even a really GOOD QB.

So, if you want to believe then go ahead. Certainly nobody at this point can prove you wrong.

[Simple Jaded]

I think it might be a good idea to wait and see if Osweiler isn't just another Kyle Orton or Tim Tebow before ya start with the ridiculous Tom Brady/Aaron Rodgers fairy tale.......

[Superchop 7]

He has little chance in this league......too raw......and no developmental league.

[Ravage!!!]

I think it might be a good idea to wait and see if Osweiler isn't just another Kyle Orton or Tim Tebow before ya start with the ridiculous Tom Brady/Aaron Rodgers fairy tale.......

He didn't compare him at all. What he said is, we just dont' know. You never know..ever. WHich is the point. No one "knew" Tom Brady was going to be the kind of QB you compare others to. In fact, most would have expected him to never make the roster. No one "knew" Joe Montana was going to be considered one of the greatest QBs to play, if they did, they wouldn't have waited until the 4th round to take him.

The point being made, is not saying Brock Oz WILL...or even "could"... be a Tom Brady. What he's saying is that to say he won't is the same thing as saying "Tom Brady will never make an NFL roster" when he was picked in the 6th. You just never know.

[Ravage!!!]

He has little chance in this league......too raw......and no developmental league.

The NCAA is the developmental league.

[NightTerror218]

He has little chance in this league......too raw......and no developmental league.

that is why he is behind manning for a couple years.

[Jsteve01]

He has little chance in this league......too raw......and no developmental league.

we're sorry you missed out on your mancrush foles. Or Kyle's bigger little brother as I like to refer to him.

[TheReverend]

I think it's pretty amusing that this thread has gotten this much play.

[Simple Jaded]

He didn't compare him at all. What he said is, we just dont' know. You never know..ever. WHich is the point. No one "knew" Tom Brady was going to be the kind of QB you compare others to. In fact, most would have expected him to never make the roster. No one "knew" Joe Montana was going to be considered one of the greatest QBs to play, if they did, they wouldn't have waited until the 4th round to take him.

The point being made, is not saying Brock Oz WILL...or even "could"... be a Tom Brady. What he's saying is that to say he won't is the same thing as saying "Tom Brady will never make an NFL roster" when he was picked in the 6th. You just never know.I know and understand what he's saying and it's ridiculous at this point. Just my opinion.

Osweiler has a much better chance of being the Next Kyle Orton than he does the Next Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, that's reality. Personally, I'm gonna pump the brakes on the fairy tales and I was just suggesting that nb900 might wanna do the same. I thought the Steve Young/Tim Tebow analogies were ridiculous, and I think Brady/Osweiler analogies are ridiculous. Bradlee Van Pelt and Kyle Orton are hurdles these two need to clear first.

I'm excited too, I just can't take Brady/Rodgers talk seriously, especially after the ridiculous Tebow bullshit over the last 2 years.......

[Mannway187]

Most of you are full of shit and have nothing else to do with your time but bitch and whine. You likely have two set of lips to facilitate your ability to perform both tasks simultaniously. Treat yourselves to a big bowl of piping hot shutthe****up stew!! I don't care who the Broncos draft but once they are picked I will root for them to be successful. If or when this yong man gets his chance I hope he hasn't read any of your negative crap. How many of you actually sit in the stands on gameday and cheer for our team regardless of who is wearing the uniform. Ever boo Tebow? Why? Would you have booed ELWAY if he lost to the Browns? Did you boo him when they lost to the Giants, the Redskins, or the 49ers? Why? Because this is a team game? Won and lost as an entire team. Every player on this team deserves to be here and I will support them even if this team never wins another game. That is my job as a DENVER BRONCO FAN. If you can't be positive and support this entire team then shut the **** up and keep your opinionated negative comments off these boards. These boards are supposed to be for Bronco FANS not critics.

[MOtorboat]

:confused:

[Simple Jaded]

Most of you are full of shit and have nothing else to do with your time but bitch and whine. You likely have two set of lips to facilitate your ability to perform both tasks simultaniously. Treat yourselves to a big bowl of piping hot shutthe****up stew!! I don't care who the Broncos draft but once they are picked I will root for them to be successful. If or when this yong man gets his chance I hope he hasn't read any of your negative crap. How many of you actually sit in the stands on gameday and cheer for our team regardless of who is wearing the uniform. Ever boo Tebow? Why? Would you have booed ELWAY if he lost to the Browns? Did you boo him when they lost to the Giants, the Redskins, or the 49ers? Why? Because this is a team game? Won and lost as an entire team. Every player on this team deserves to be here and I will support them even if this team never wins another game. That is my job as a DENVER BRONCO FAN. If you can't be positive and support this entire team then shut the **** up and keep your opinionated negative comments off these boards. These boards are supposed to be for Bronco FANS not critics.

http://photos3.fotosearch.com/bthumb/CSP/CSP660/k6609175.jpg

Great! Now we have to worry about Osweiler's feelings when we post.

Edit

Btw, you don't need two sets of lips to bitch and whine on the Internet, actually, you don't need any. Just sayin.......

[Ravage!!!]

Most of you are full of shit and have nothing else to do with your time but bitch and whine. You likely have two set of lips to facilitate your ability to perform both tasks simultaniously. Treat yourselves to a big bowl of piping hot shutthe****up stew!! I don't care who the Broncos draft but once they are picked I will root for them to be successful. If or when this yong man gets his chance I hope he hasn't read any of your negative crap. How many of you actually sit in the stands on gameday and cheer for our team regardless of who is wearing the uniform. Ever boo Tebow? Why? Would you have booed ELWAY if he lost to the Browns? Did you boo him when they lost to the Giants, the Redskins, or the 49ers? Why? Because this is a team game? Won and lost as an entire team. Every player on this team deserves to be here and I will support them even if this team never wins another game. That is my job as a DENVER BRONCO FAN. If you can't be positive and support this entire team then shut the **** up and keep your opinionated negative comments off these boards. These boards are supposed to be for Bronco FANS not critics.

Oh boy. You had to to and pull this crap. This is the same thing the has been hashed over time and time and time again...but apparently you didn't get the memo, and certainly haven't partaken in any of those discussions.

Here's the truth. Fan stand for "fanatic." I don't have to be "positive" fanatic, and I don't have to like everythinga bout my favorite team. Thats NOT what a fan is. It CAN be what a fan is, if thats what you would like to be. But don't come here and believe that if a person has a negative feelinga bout a player, a coach, or anyone in the FO, that it makes them "less" of a fan. Their passion for the team is JUST as strong as yours, and I'm guessing that most here have been fans for MUCH MUCH longer than you have.

AS A FAN, a person that buys their merchandise, tickets, goes to sports bars and facilities so that I can watch the games.... I have an absolute RIGHT to express MY opinion as I see fit. If that opinion is not a positive one, or one that doesn't match your sense of "goodness"...tough. Fans have a RIGHT to boo if they see something they don't like. THey have a right to yell at a coach, or player, if they are not pleased with the product THEY see on the field.

The message boards, unless you go to the 'other' message board, is not a place purely to express happy-happy-joy-joy comments in all posts. Not only would that be completely boring, but it would make most of (adults) puke.

Fans ARE critics.... not just ass-kissing rugs that accept anything that is given.

[topscribe]

Most of you are full of shit and have nothing else to do with your time but bitch and whine. You likely have two set of lips to facilitate your ability to perform both tasks simultaniously. Treat yourselves to a big bowl of piping hot shutthe****up stew!! I don't care who the Broncos draft but once they are picked I will root for them to be successful. If or when this yong man gets his chance I hope he hasn't read any of your negative crap. How many of you actually sit in the stands on gameday and cheer for our team regardless of who is wearing the uniform. Ever boo Tebow? Why? Would you have booed ELWAY if he lost to the Browns? Did you boo him when they lost to the Giants, the Redskins, or the 49ers? Why? Because this is a team game? Won and lost as an entire team. Every player on this team deserves to be here and I will support them even if this team never wins another game. That is my job as a DENVER BRONCO FAN. If you can't be positive and support this entire team then shut the **** up and keep your opinionated negative comments off these boards. These boards are supposed to be for Bronco FANS not critics.
Son, I believe your heart's in the right place. And I admire you for being such
a loyal fan.

However, I am one of the Founders of this board, and so I can say with
authority that this board was founded for the purpose of expressing opinions,
positive and negative. If you disagree, then, by all means, exert your right to
do so. When you do, all we ask is that you extend the courtesy of sticking to
the issue and telling us why you disagree, and recognize the right of others
to express their own opinions, even if they disagree with you . . . :)

[Cugel]

Quote Originally Posted by Mannway187 View Post
Most of you are full of shit and have nothing else to do with your time but bitch and whine. You likely have two set of lips to facilitate your ability to perform both tasks simultaniously. Treat yourselves to a big bowl of piping hot shutthe****up stew!! I don't care who the Broncos draft but once they are picked I will root for them to be successful. If or when this yong man gets his chance I hope he hasn't read any of your negative crap. How many of you actually sit in the stands on gameday and cheer for our team regardless of who is wearing the uniform. Ever boo Tebow? Why? Would you have booed ELWAY if he lost to the Browns? Did you boo him when they lost to the Giants, the Redskins, or the 49ers? Why? Because this is a team game? Won and lost as an entire team. Every player on this team deserves to be here and I will support them even if this team never wins another game. That is my job as a DENVER BRONCO FAN. If you can't be positive and support this entire team then shut the **** up and keep your opinionated negative comments off these boards. These boards are supposed to be for Bronco FANS not critics.

Shorter Mannway187: "I'm a whiny little B**** who thinks he gets to decide who's a "true fan" and who's only a 'critic.'" :coffee:

Not everybody thinks everything management does is just peachy 100% of the time. But, I'm sure there's a nice militia group out there somewhere for every authoritarian lover like you who just can't stand dissent.

[Mannway187]

Shorter Mannway187: "I'm a whiny little B**** who thinks he gets to decide who's a "true fan" and who's only a 'critic.'" :coffee:

Not everybody thinks everything management does is just peachy 100% of the time. But, I'm sure there's a nice militia group out there somewhere for every authoritarian lover like you who just can't stand dissent.

I have to agree with you. You are absolutely 100% a whiney little bitch. And as usual you missed the point. Plain english: Let the kid play some football before you judge his ability and compare him to anybody. Your statistics don't do anything but fill space which is fine. But this thread just got to be so rediculaus that I couldn't help myself. I've been a follower of the Broncos since the early 70's. I've seen plenty of guys get drafted that didn't have a chance in hell of making the team go to multiple pro bowls. I was always taught not to criticise someone who does what I can't. How unfortunate that so many "fans" seem to think they are a better judge of what it takes to play QB in the NFL than someone who not only played the position but took his team to 5 super bowls. If that guy wants to use a second round pick on a raw inexperienced QB fine. I like the pick, but then I like every pick every year until they proove they don't belong in the league. How many of the QBs on any of your lists were drafted by a hall of famer who played in multiple super bowls? ZERO the only one close was drafted by the Colts and traded to the Broncos. He was such a sure thing that the Broncos wasted a 5th round pick that same year on a QB. How many prior NFL QB were 6'7"? ZERO But we got a guy who at 6'5" is one of the tallest QB to play in the NFL and he makes it look easy. So maybe taller is better. And maybe the Broncos take the field next year and not one of you will be on the sidelines. But come Monday morning you'll be right there talkin trash win or loose. If you don't like the product put on a uniform and make it better. Your entitled to have an opinion as am I. My opinion is if you can't do any better then shut the **** up. If you don't like the fact that your no longer focused on whether or not Osweiler will ever play in this league because you are busy responding to my post Well, sorry bout the hook it came with the bait.:salute:

[Superchop 7]

The sunshine and rainbows ONLY forum is called Broncos Country. I am sorry that we have concerns with taking a raw kid and thinking that because he is a Bronco he is gonna wake up tomorrow and be an elite QB. Michael Jordan knows as much about basketball as anyone but just put together the worst team in NBA history. John may be a HOF QB but I don't think he missed by a mile on this kid.

[Superchop 7]

Hmmmm cant edit post on phone.....correction.....I think he missed by a mile on this kid.

[Simple Jaded]

http://forums.denverbroncos.com/

Look up Alastor, he'll love you. He'll probably make you a MOD.......

[Simple Jaded]

The sunshine and rainbows ONLY forum is called Broncos Country. I am sorry that we have concerns with taking a raw kid and thinking that because he is a Bronco he is gonna wake up tomorrow and be an elite QB. Michael Jordan knows as much about basketball as anyone but just put together the worst team in NBA history. John may be a HOF QB but I don't think he missed by a mile on this kid.
I don't think he missed by a mile either.......

[topscribe]

Hmmmm cant edit post on phone.....correction.....I think he missed by a mile on this kid.
I think you were more accurate before the correction, Chop . . . ;)

[Simple Jaded]

First this.......


You are absolutely 100% a whiney little bitch.......

Then this.......


I was always taught not to criticise someone who does what I can't.......

All in the same post.......

[bcbronc]

I think he missed by a kilometer.

[topscribe]

I think he missed by a kilometer.
Spoken like a true Canuck . . . :laugh:

[Mannway187]

The sunshine and rainbows ONLY forum is called Broncos Country. I am sorry that we have concerns with taking a raw kid and thinking that because he is a Bronco he is gonna wake up tomorrow and be an elite QB. Michael Jordan knows as much about basketball as anyone but just put together the worst team in NBA history. John may be a HOF QB but I don't think he missed by a mile on this kid.

I must have missed the post where someone said Oswieler was gonna be "elite".

"Michael Jordan knows as much about basketball as anyone"
Is that why he left North Carolina after his junior year? Because he already knew everything there was to know about the game of basketball. Don't compare a Stanford business major with a North Carolina 3 year dropout.
How many years did you play QB at any level? Which team called you on draft day? Your opinion of Elway's ability to recognise talent leaves me wondering what you think of the other QB choices he made during the offseason. Actually, nevermind. I'll have to trust the HOFers decision for now.
How many championships did Elways arena league team win while he was in charge? More than 1 or 2? And he picked some nobody to be the QB. They did play football in that league didn't they? It might not be as complicated as jumping high and stuffing a melon through a basket. I'm pretty sure Micheal Jordan chose basketball because the playbook was alot smaller. Then again who knows how many championships Jordan would have won without Phil Jackson? Because Jackson won just as many without Jordan as he had with him and all his knowledge. Somebody missed something by more than a mile. Not to worry though you can catch the next bus.

Confused yet? Me too, what were we talking about again? Them damn 70s scrambled a few of the good cells too.

[TXBRONC]

Hmmmm cant edit post on phone.....correction.....I think he missed by a mile on this kid.

Yeah but Foles would have been the next best thing to sliced bread correct?

[Jsteve01]

yeah don't bring up Superchop's guy we're busy bashing his more athletic, more charismatic counterpart from ASU.

[jlarsiii]

Hmmmm cant edit post on phone.....correction.....I think he missed by a mile on this kid.

I guess we will all have to wait and see. On a somewhat unrelated note I remember when Dream (or Requiem) had a mangasm when we selected Moreno, and that really never panned out as expected. It may be the same case with Brock. No way to know at this point...

[silkamilkamonico]

Yeah but it Noles would have been the next best thing to sliced bread correct?

Noles is the type of QB that would be a very good backup, or at best a starting QB you have until you wait for the next one.

He isn't an explosive QB, he will not throw TD's or turn the ball over, at best he's the kind of QB that you ask not to lose the game.

The kind of QB no winning organization that wants to play offense wants.

Trent Dilfer version 2.0.

[TheReverend]

Noles is the type of QB that would be a very good backup, or at best a starting QB you have until you wait for the next one.

He isn't an explosive QB, he will not throw TD's or turn the ball over, at best he's the kind of QB that you ask not to lose the game.

The kind of QB no winning organization that wants to play offense wants.

Trent Dilfer version 2.0.

...Noles?

[Chef Zambini]

he has a 50 - 50 chance of being good.
thats about the same as almost every other QB that gets signed in the NFL.
so why the sense of urgancy/
lets hope elway can justify this luxury pick when we didnt have the luxury.

[Jsteve01]

...Noles?

Foles is so forgettable that people can't even remember his name. Trent Dilfer combined with Kyle Orton is a good assessment.

[Northman]

Can please not stink up this thread with talk about that chump Foles?

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

Physically Brock has a lot of upside. He would have to adjust to a pro style offense of course, but he has the ability to get the ball out quickly, which helps.

The truth is, none of us know how he's wired, which will determine how far he really goes under this regime. If he craps out it could likely mean he was just another Leinart. Hopefully, he will grow into his potential.

[topscribe]

Can please not stink up this thread with talk about that chump Foles?
I like Foles. I like Brock better, I think, but I like Foles . . .

[Al Wilson 4 Mayor]

I like Foles. I like Brock better, I think, but I like Foles . . .

Pizza or cheeseburger tonight, which is it? :D

[topscribe]

Pizza or cheeseburger tonight, which is it? :D
Depends on where either is prepared.

Same with QBs, methinks . . .

[bcbronc]

Spoken like a true Canuck . . . :laugh:

Actually top, I'd prefer it if you could refrain from using the "c" word until at least October.

:tsk:

[TXBRONC]

Noles is the type of QB that would be a very good backup, or at best a starting QB you have until you wait for the next one.

He isn't an explosive QB, he will not throw TD's or turn the ball over, at best he's the kind of QB that you ask not to lose the game.

The kind of QB no winning organization that wants to play offense wants.

Trent Dilfer version 2.0.

Until I saw Dilfer's name at the bottom of your post I though you were going to say Foles is like Orton.

[TXBRONC]

...Noles?

That's actually my fault. I called him Noles when I meant Foles.

[NightTerror218]

Apparently Osweilser is showing improvements at rookie mini camp.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d829079d5/article/brock-osweiler-shows-denver-broncos-his-new-throwing-motion?module=HP11_headline_stack

[TheReverend]

Foles is so forgettable that people can't even remember his name. Trent Dilfer combined with Kyle Orton is a good assessment.

So is the thing around here to now knock all other QBs in defense of Brock?

Oddly, people here mocked me for talking up Osweiler way back in Feb/March...

You guys are cute.

[TXBRONC]

So is the thing around here to now knock all other QBs in defense of Brock?

Oddly, people here mocked me for talking up Osweiler way back in Feb/March...

You guys are cute.

I try to be supportive whoever the Broncos pick.

[topscribe]

Foles is so forgettable that people can't even remember his name. Trent Dilfer combined with Kyle Orton is a good assessment.
In other words, Foles is a Trent Dilfer who averages 306 passing yards a game?

Or is he a Kyle Orton who won a Super Bowl?

Yeah, if Foles is a combination of the two, I would take him . . .

[topscribe]

Actually top, I'd prefer it if you could refrain from using the "c" word until at least October.

:tsk:
Sorry. Just trying to be jovial. If I offended you, I apologize. :redface:

[Simple Jaded]

So is the thing around here to now knock all other QBs in defense of Brock?

Oddly, people here mocked me for talking up Osweiler way back in Feb/March...

You guys are cute.Condescending bullshit aside, people were knocking Foles long before they drafted Osweiler. And if you don't know why some people would mock you for talking up any QB back in Feb/Mar then you must have been living under a rock for the last 2 years.......

[Superchop 7]

Im not bashing ! I think its great that we drafted Lurch from The Addams Family and grooming him to be a star !

[Simple Jaded]

Im not bashing ! I think its great that we drafted Lurch from The Addams Family and grooming him to be a star !
http://media.egotvonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Nick-Foles-15.jpg

http://images2.fanpop.com/images/photos/5600000/Addams-Family-Cousin-Itt-addams-family-5684028-356-288.jpg

As opposed to Cousin Itt? Good luck grooming that.......

[Superchop 7]

COUSIN itt went to the Redskins, he will have highlights.

[TXBRONC]

Im not bashing ! I think its great that we drafted Lurch from The Addams Family and grooming him to be a star !
'

You're complaing about his height? That's pretty weak imo.

[Nomad]

'

You're complaing about his height? That's pretty weak imo.


Other than Flacco, not many QBs with a height over 6'6" has had much success in the NFL....at least that's what I found. There's always a first time but I can see why people look at the height thing, perhaps if it doesn't work out he can play TE being he has basketball abilities.

[Cugel]

he has a 50 - 50 chance of being good.
thats about the same as almost every other QB that gets signed in the NFL.
so why the sense of urgancy/
lets hope elway can justify this luxury pick when we didnt have the luxury.

Did you flunk probability and statistics in high school? :laugh:

Just because you can't assign an absolute probability of success does NOT mean that both possible outcomes (Good/No Good) are equally likely!

THAT is the entire point of this thread! And some of you STILL don't get it!

Statistically speaking, you can say that it's far more probable that Osweiler NEVER becomes a good starting QB, let alone an elite one -- based on the historical record, taking the number of successful QBs drafted at #57 or later in the draft and dividing that into the total number of QBs taken after #57.

BUT, it's impossible to predict in advance where any particular pick will fall (Good/No Good). That's what statistics is all about! Given uncertainty, what is the probability that a particular outcome will fall within a certain range (along the Good/No Good spectrum).

Basically, it's a long-shot. :coffee:

[sneakers]

I appreciate your comment, but if you are going to make the above statement, you'll need to back it up with more than one name

Roger Staubach.

There, now you have 2.

[TXBRONC]

Other than Flacco, not many QBs with a height over 6'6" has had much success in the NFL....at least that's what I found. There's always a first time but I can see why people look at the height thing, perhaps if it doesn't work out he can play TE being he has basketball abilities.

I would image so because it's not like you see 6'7" quarterbacks coming into the League year in and year out. There are hundreds more of prototypical height like Nick Foles who fail year in and year out. His height isn't what is going to keep him making it as pro. If doesn't have the ability that's what will shut him down. His height is actually an advantage.

According the experts Dumervil is too short to play defensive end. His height or the lack there of is an advantage becuase there isn't even one left tackle in League that he doesn't have natural leveage on.

[claymore]

I would image so because it's not like you see 6'7" quarterbacks coming into the League year in and year out. There are hundreds more of prototypical height like Nick Foles who fail year in and year out. His height isn't what is going to keep him making it as pro. If doesn't have the ability that's what will shut him down. His height is actually an advantage.

According the experts Dumervil is too short to play defensive end. His height or the lack there of is an advantage becuase there isn't even one left tackle in League that he doesn't have natural leveage on.

There are like 5 QB's who are within a 1/4 inch of being 6'7 too. Phillip rivers is like 6-6 & 7/8ths. His height isnt what concerns me. its the fact that he doesnt do anything above average. Nothing about the guy stands out. Arm strength, accuracy, mobility, intelligience all seem average to subpar.

I just have to trust Elway. Which In my case he has earned.

[silkamilkamonico]

There are like 5 QB's who are within a 1/4 inch of being 6'7 too. Phillip rivers is like 6-6 & 7/8ths. His height isnt what concerns me. its the fact that he doesnt do anything above average. Nothing about the guy stands out. Arm strength, accuracy, mobility, intelligience all seem average to subpar.


Is it just perception?

Basically every scout rated him as arguably the strongest arm in the draft. He is actually a very mobile Qb and you can see it on his highlights, much more mobile than alot of other first round QB's who have prospered. He isn't Griffin the III mobile, but not alot of QB's are.

[Jsteve01]

So is the thing around here to now knock all other QBs in defense of Brock?

Oddly, people here mocked me for talking up Osweiler way back in Feb/March...

You guys are cute.

Nice drive by Rev! If you look back on my posts I've been down on him all year. Don't like him. The only reason I mentioned Foles is because Superchop has a hard on for him and thinks he's the next Marino. And any time he mentions Oz he has to tell us how wonderful foles will be. So there ya go. Is that cuter?

[Jsteve01]

There are like 5 QB's who are within a 1/4 inch of being 6'7 too. Phillip rivers is like 6-6 & 7/8ths. His height isnt what concerns me. its the fact that he doesnt do anything above average. Nothing about the guy stands out. Arm strength, accuracy, mobility, intelligience all seem average to subpar.

I just have to trust Elway. Which In my case he has earned.

I think the arm, mobility and football iq are all above average. His accuracy is what concerns me.

[Chef Zambini]

Did you flunk probability and statistics in high school? :laugh:

Just because you can't assign an absolute probability of success does NOT mean that both possible outcomes (Good/No Good) are equally likely!

THAT is the entire point of this thread! And some of you STILL don't get it!

Statistically speaking, you can say that it's far more probable that Osweiler NEVER becomes a good starting QB, let alone an elite one -- based on the historical record, taking the number of successful QBs drafted at #57 or later in the draft and dividing that into the total number of QBs taken after #57.

BUT, it's impossible to predict in advance where any particular pick will fall (Good/No Good). That's what statistics is all about! Given uncertainty, what is the probability that a particular outcome will fall within a certain range (along the Good/No Good spectrum).

Basically, it's a long-shot. :coffee:I appreciate your condescending comments, thanks. I have an IQ of 160. I aced every math class I attended in high-school. I dropped out of typing class.
I did learn to READ way back in first grade. the question was "what are his chances, NOT
what is the statistical probability of success.
you aint a pin head but you definatly are a *****.

[Ravage!!!]

160 my ass :lol:

[Chef Zambini]

sorry, its true. tested twice in high school and once in college.
I have done the online tests too and always score between 158 and 162.

[Ravage!!!]

sorry, its true. tested twice in high school and once in college.
I have done the online tests too and always score between 158 and 162.

Mmm h mm....

[Northman]

I would say that the overall percentage of this thread sucking ass is 100%.

[Cugel]

I appreciate your condescending comments, thanks. I have an IQ of 160. I aced every math class I attended in high-school. I dropped out of typing class.
I did learn to READ way back in first grade. the question was "what are his chances, NOT
what is the statistical probability of success.
you aint a pin head but you definatly [sic] are a *****.

If you're so brilliant, whatever happened to putting Capital letters at the beginning of sentences? :laugh:

If you aced all your classes, why do you continually say nonsensical things like:
"he has a 50 - 50 chance of being good. thats about the same as almost every other QB that gets signed in the NFL.

He does NOT have a 50-50 chance of being good. Statistically he has about a 2% chance. Well over 100 QBs taken at or after #57 in the last 12 years (since Tom Brady) and one success in Matt Shaub.

You could argue about the probability and whether sample size is statistically significant if you wanted, but the outcome's going to come out less than 10% no matter how you slice it.

Osweiler could be one of the exceptions or he could prove the rule that you can't expect to get a good QB in the late second round.

There seems to be a LOT of fans who just can't stand basing anything on probability and want to indulge in fantasies. Because the team drafted him he's going to be good.

Well, OK, I guess. We'll wait and see. Elway could be right after all.

[silkamilkamonico]

There seems to be a LOT of fans who just can't stand basing anything on probability and want to indulge in fantasies. Because the team drafted him he's going to be good.
.


If he was drafted in the first round, what is the probabiilty of him not being a franchise QB in the NFL?

I would say pretty damn high, and that isn't even considering all these damn first round busts that come in year in and out.

[claymore]

Is it just perception?

Basically every scout rated him as arguably the strongest arm in the draft. He is actually a very mobile Qb and you can see it on his highlights, much more mobile than alot of other first round QB's who have prospered. He isn't Griffin the III mobile, but not alot of QB's are.

Just my take on the kid. I disagree with the scouts. I will watch him again, but even his highlight reel is boring.

[Jsteve01]

Other than Flacco, not many QBs with a height over 6'6" has had much success in the NFL....at least that's what I found. There's always a first time but I can see why people look at the height thing, perhaps if it doesn't work out he can play TE being he has basketball abilities.

In all reality though how many qb prospects over 6'7" have there ever been? Im thinking one and that's Dan McGwire. So now we're lumping all tall prospects in with McGwire because he sucked? Makes no sense.

[Nomad]

In all reality though how many qb prospects over 6'7" have there ever been? Im thinking one and that's Dan McGwire. So now we're lumping all tall prospects in with McGwire because he sucked? Makes no sense.

Why doesn't it make sense.....here's proof the tallest QBs haven't faired well in the NFL. I hope Osweiler can be a first and will support him because he's a BRONCO, but I'm less optimistic than many.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d827fff7e/article/osweiler-hopes-to-outshine-nfls-tallest-qbs

[Jsteve01]

Why doesn't it make sense.....here's proof the tallest QBs haven't faired well in the NFL. I hope Osweiler can be a first and will support him because he's a BRONCO, but I'm less optimistic than many.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d827fff7e/article/osweiler-hopes-to-outshine-nfls-tallest-qbs

ok he measured at a hair under 6'7" at the combine so we can lump him in with all those other guys. Now remind me which of those guys were big time prospects? Flacco and Jawalrus? So he has a 50/50 shot. You see where I'm going with this? The sample size is so small that if you really want to be a stickler you could say hey 6'6" qbs hit 1out of eight. That's pretty good. His height will have nothing to do with production or lack there of.

[MOtorboat]

ok he measured at a hair under 6'7" at the combine so we can lump him in with all those other guys. Now remind me which of those guys were big time prospects? Flacco and Jawalrus? So he has a 50/50 shot. You see where I'm going with this? The sample size is so small that if you really want to be a stickler you could say hey 6'6" qbs hit 1out of eight. That's pretty good. His height will have nothing to do with production or lack there of.

Which goes RIGHT back to my assertion that about 15 percent of ALL quarterbacks, regardless of height, weight throwing hand or color "make it."

[Chef Zambini]

If you're so brilliant, whatever happened to putting Capital letters at the beginning of sentences? :laugh:

If you aced all your classes, why do you continually say nonsensical things like:

He does NOT have a 50-50 chance of being good. Statistically he has about a 2% chance. Well over 100 QBs taken at or after #57 in the last 12 years (since Tom Brady) and one success in Matt Shaub.

You could argue about the probability and whether sample size is statistically significant if you wanted, but the outcome's going to come out less than 10% no matter how you slice it.

Osweiler could be one of the exceptions or he could prove the rule that you can't expect to get a good QB in the late second round.

There seems to be a LOT of fans who just can't stand basing anything on probability and want to indulge in fantasies. Because the team drafted him he's going to be good.

Well, OK, I guess. We'll wait and see. Elway could be right after all.I did not say I aced all my classes, I said I aced all my math classes.
how did you fair with reading comprehension?

[Simple Jaded]

That's "fare", as in "how did you fare in reading and comprehension?". I didn't ace any of my classes. :D.......

[Chef Zambini]

If you're so brilliant, whatever happened to putting Capital letters at the beginning of sentences? :laugh:

If you aced all your classes, why do you continually say nonsensical things like:

He does NOT have a 50-50 chance of being good. Statistically he has about a 2% chance. Well over 100 QBs taken at or after #57 in the last 12 years (since Tom Brady) and one success in Matt Shaub.

You could argue about the probability and whether sample size is statistically significant if you wanted, but the outcome's going to come out less than 10% no matter how you slice it.

Osweiler could be one of the exceptions or he could prove the rule that you can't expect to get a good QB in the late second round.

There seems to be a LOT of fans who just can't stand basing anything on probability and want to indulge in fantasies. Because the team drafted him he's going to be good.

Well, OK, I guess. We'll wait and see. Elway could be right after all.a 50 / 50 chance of being G-O-O-D.
"good' is a relative term.
I would normally say, every QB drafted in the NFL would show a propensity for being "good' but there is always the exception, tebow, j-marcass and jeff george as examples, LEAF yet another!
their environment, mental fortitude and the process by wich they come to be the starter for their team accounts for alot !
KUBIAK, he was a "ggod' QB !
aaron rogers, would he be as good as he is if he didnt have the packer organization and the chance to mentor under favre?
david CArr, (how tal is he BTW ) if circumstances were different for him, MAYBE he too could have flourished if he wasnt thrown to the wolves or if KUBIAK got him as a rookie !
you just never know, so although it may not be a statisistical reality, I dont really see how you can rate a QBs probability of siccess based on something as arbitrary as his height or when he was drafted.for every first round QB success there is a QB bust ! we need look no further than leaf and manning for an exemplary example !
warner, UNDRAFTED !
Brady sixth round! hell, he played seciond fiddle to greise in college !
stats dont measure whats inside the guy !
they dont take into account the learning invironment he gets drafted into!
(thats where brocko has his greatest advantage IMHO )
one need only look at drew breez to see that environment has more to do with success, than all the 'measurables', considered a bust in san diego, they drafted rivers to replace him !
transpalnted in N'awlin's with a chip on his shoulder and a great offensive coach in Payten, Breez flourished !
did he grow 2 more inches/
No ! did his draft position change, NO !
di he come up with a case of
'Ill show you' absolutely!
stats / schmatz!
they dont measure whats inside a player, especially a QB !
j'marcus, he had fabulous measurables,
too bad they didnt measure his codine to white blood cell ratio !

[Simple Jaded]

Is it just perception?

Basically every scout rated him as arguably the strongest arm in the draft. He is actually a very mobile Qb and you can see it on his highlights, much more mobile than alot of other first round QB's who have prospered. He isn't Griffin the III mobile, but not alot of QB's are.I tend to agree with this, everything I've read about him leading up to the draft is pretty much this. I'm not saying I agree with those reports just that this is basically the skinny of Osweiler. What stuck out for me was his mobility, he's no RG3 or even Aaron Rodgers for that matter but I'd say he kinda compares to Matt Ryan or Jay Cutler in that area. What didn't impress me was his arm strength.......

[Chef Zambini]

mobile... for a big QB.
'surprizing mobility"
I live in AZ, AND SORRY, BUT THIS KID didnt exactly grab my attention or anyone elses while he was playing for ASU !
sorry.
he is tallbut all the scouts say he does not deliver the ball making full use of that height !
arm strength, again mixed reports, and to that I say, see jeff george and j'marcus wastehole for details.
accuracy/ that cant be important, many have said that KELLEN MOORE WAS THE MOST ACCURATE QB IN COLLEGE
and that bum didnt even get drafted!
JE likes him, enough to draft him with our second pick, so i will just have to defer to JE and hope he is right !
BROCKO is definatly set up for success, so lets hope he can make the most of it, like brady and rogers !

[Simple Jaded]

mobile... for a big QB.
'surprizing mobility"
I live in AZ, AND SORRY, BUT THIS KID didnt exactly grab my attention or anyone elses while he was playing for ASU !
sorry.
he is tallbut all the scouts say he does not deliver the ball making full use of that height !
arm strength, again mixed reports, and to that I say, see jeff george and j'marcus wastehole for details.
accuracy/ that cant be important, many have said that KELLEN MOORE WAS THE MOST ACCURATE QB IN COLLEGE
and that bum didnt even get drafted!
JE likes him, enough to draft him with our second pick, so i will just have to defer to JE and hope he is right !
BROCKO is definatly set up for success, so lets hope he can make the most of it, like brady and rogers !Surprising mobility for a big dude is fair, imo, he's no Cam Newton that's for sure. He's far more mobile than Rivers, Manning and Brady, but they have far better pocket presense.

As for Kellen Moore, I can't understand his cult like following, any offense he's in will most likely be limited because of his arm strength and height. I don't care how accurate he was, I'll take my chances with George and JaFat.......

[Chef Zambini]

let me get this right...
you would take jeff george or j'marc-my-ass-as-fat russel over kellen moore?
is that really what you are saying?

[MOtorboat]

Uh, yeah.

I would.

Although I don't want to speak for another poster on the subject.

Kellen Moore has a noodle arm and is my height. Not gonna cut it.

[claymore]

Uh, yeah.

I would.

Although I don't want to speak for another poster on the subject.

Kellen Moore has a noodle arm and is my height. Not gonna cut it.
All he does is win Mo.

[Northman]

Kellen Moore. bwhahahahahahaahahahahahaha

[MOtorboat]

All he does is win Mo.

How's that working out for Colt McCoy and Matt Leinart?