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View Full Version : RYO's State of the Broncos: An (extremely) in depth analysis



RunYouOver
04-28-2009, 08:13 PM
Well, it's April 28th and that means it's time for a complete, thorough analysis of the Broncos.


Thoughts on the draft
1st round:

#12) Knowshon Moreno:

The only pick I would've liked more is Orakpo, but clearly the Broncos felt that he wasn't a good fit for the system. Moreno was clearly the best running back in this draft, and the player who could have the biggest impact at #12. There's nothing not to like here. We didn't reach for defense since we had the #18 pick, and drafting an impact running back here makes more sense than just taking the BPA. A good running game really helps the defense, and since our defense is already pretty weak, this pick DOES help our defense. So stop complaining. This pick really helped our team.

#18) Robert Ayers:

Another great pick here, ACTUAL help for the defense. Ayers was Mayock's top defensive player in the draft, and while I wouldn't put him ahead of Curry, he's definitely up there. He's athletic enough to work in the 4-3 or 3-4, and even though he's a potential one year wonder, he has the intelligence and work ethic to avoid being a Jarvis Moss. Good pick.

2nd round:

#37) Alphonso Smith:

Alright, here's the deal with this pick; Anyone who is against it is wrong. Your opinion doesn't count. Just kidding, but this pick was incredible. It makes sense for everyone. So he's 5'9, you know why that doesn't matter? Quarterbacks aren't going to throw the ball to the receiver at 8 or 9 feet in the air. Which means as long as he's in the vicinity, he can make a play on the ball, height will not be a major factor. Will it effect him on jump balls in the end zone? Probably. Everywhere else? As long as their is safety help, he's fine on a jump ball, and on anything else this guy is a playmaker. Watched him play, and I think he made Curry better, not the other way around. We're going to wind up laughing about complaining about this trade in a few years, just watch. This guy is a legitimate answer at corner, and he'll help us a LOT.

#48) Darcel McBath:

I was against this pick originally. I wanted a safety, but I didn't even know this guy, and thought there were better safeties in the draft. But he's smart, and athletic and McDaniels and the team loved him. If they think he'll fit, he'll fit...and it wasn't a reach since the cowboys wanted him at #51.

#64) Richard Quinn:

This pick made absolutely no sense to me...and then I thought about it. We'll never know if other teams were interested, so it's impossible to say we made a big reach on this...but if he was our guy, he was our guy, no point in taking a chance. We had a small draft board and this was one of the guys we "needed." Graham will be around for a while I think--don't listen to those rumors of his release--but Scheffler won't, and two solid blocking tight ends are going to be very helpful. Quinn will catch the ball more than he did in college (or so we hope), and he'll turn out fine. I'm not thrilled with this pick, but I'm not upset.

3rd round: no picks

4th round:

#114) David Bruton:

Supposedly a team leader and a captain at Notre Dame, which is impressive.
Our special teams sucks every year, and McDaniels said that he "was the best special teams player in the draft," so that is absoluetly fine with me. He's got potential as a starting safety down the road, but considering how bad our ST was last year, the fourth round is fine by me for fixing it.

#132) Seth Olsen

Our offensive line may be set with Clady and Harris, but we need more depth at guard. This pick is fine.

5th round:

#141) Kenny McKinley:

Everything I read about this pick leads me to believe we got a steal here...he'll probably come into camp as the #4 WR, maybe #5, but I expect him to be fairly productive. If he dominated corners in the SEC, even through double teams, he's got talent. Plus South Carolina wasn't the same team without him, by any stretch...this guy was a steal.

6th Round:

#174) Tom Brandstater

I guess he sounds enough like Tom Brady to McDaniels, and if that means McDaniels can turn a 6th rounder into a star, I'm happy.

7th round:

#225) Blake Schuleuter

It's the 7th round. Depth for the Center if he even makes the team.

I never complain about 7th round picks.

OVERALL:

We didn't address all the needs people thought we would, but we made smart picks on players we liked at spots we felt we needed to take them. I'm happy with that, and I think our team improved a lot this past weekend.


Thoughts on McDaniels:

The draft really made me reconsider my stance on McD...he DID know what he was doing and he didn't seem to panic. Some of the moves may seem questionable now, but I think they'll turn out mostly OK later on. I think he really does know how to run a football team, and that'll become apparent when we win our first couple games of the season, and play competitively in the tougher games. I'm excited now; he messed up badly with Cutler, but that'll be a learning experience, and to be honest, a month later, I think we can recover.

Quarterback position:

Orton's really not that bad. He was 21-12 with a defense and no offense. Now he has an offense with a TON of weapons and not a good defense. He has too many weapons to not be better as a player, and the competition in Simms to motivate him to play better. Simms is not terribe, either...far better than Patrick Ramsey.

RBs:

Yes, we have a ton. We have a ton of good pass-catching RBs for Orton, some solid change of pace guys, and now Moreno. I think we're actually a top 10 running team with the guys we have now, and this will help out Orton and our O a lot. We can still score 30 a game, any game.

WRs:

Doesn't look like Marshall will be suspended at this point, Royal should only improve, and we have Stokely, Gaffney and McKinley who can all play well. Add in a TON of UDFAs, and we'll get a solid crew of WRs. This is definitely our team's strong point...

O-Line:

...along with the O-line. Still looking great, and that'll also be a significant help for Orton...he'll have protection and the time to not mess up. Aside from Wieggman, this is a young line that should continue to dominate for years to come.

D-Line/LBs:

Not as terrible as people think...Baker and Thomas are both at LEAST middle of the pack NTs, Moss could potentially surprise at LB...he can't be much worse than he is now, Crowder, Dumervil and Ayers could all be solid OLBs, DJ Williams is one of the best in the league, we signed some guys...when it's all said and done, we're not a bottom five defense with our LB and D-Line, we're just not.

Secondary:
We still have Champ at corner, to go along with Andre Goodman, Jack Williams, Alphonso Smith...our corners are actually above average, and with Dawkins, our secondary is a lot better.
I'm actually happy with our secondary right now, especially with Alphonso Smith.

Special teams is improved...not much more too say there. It couldn't get any worse.


So here's the deal: No one expects much from us next season, even most of our fans...people are questioning our draft, people question our coach...everything's a question or a doubt.

I'm here to tell you there's no doubt about it, we're going to surprise almost everyone next season. We've got a hell of a schedule ahead of us, but stranger things have happened. Teams that look strong now might actually be pretty weak by midway through next season. And some teams, and I think we'll be one of them, will actually be tougher than it appears on the schedule right now.


Anything and everything can change, as it usually does...but I'm more optimistic than I've been since the day before Shanny was fired, and I really think you should be as well.

:cheers:

Nomad
04-28-2009, 08:19 PM
Good job RYO! What's your assessment of the UDFA??

RunYouOver
04-28-2009, 08:22 PM
Good job RYO! What's your assessment of the UDFA??

You really want me to add onto this :lol:

Don't know too much about them yet, aside from the one NT we got could be a potentially solid pick up. I'll look into them more when we appear to be done, probably in a few weeks or so.

I must say I'm surprised we didn't look to sign a kicker, at the very least to give Prater some competition. We could have extreme confidence in him, but I still think he needs a little competition to get him back to his early season success.

honz
04-28-2009, 08:52 PM
No matter how this next season goes, it's nice to see a little more optimism around here. :beer:

dogfish
04-28-2009, 09:00 PM
so, are we winning the bowl this year, or what?

RunYouOver
04-28-2009, 09:02 PM
so, are we winning the bowl this year, or what?

Nah, I'm being realistic here...we'll probably only get to the AFC Championship ;)

TXBRONC
04-28-2009, 09:23 PM
You really want me to add onto this :lol:

Don't know too much about them yet, aside from the one NT we got could be a potentially solid pick up. I'll look into them more when we appear to be done, probably in a few weeks or so.

I must say I'm surprised we didn't look to sign a kicker, at the very least to give Prater some competition. We could have extreme confidence in him, but I still think he needs a little competition to get him back to his early season success.

Competition for Prater can be picked up at any time. It wouldn't surprise me if McDaniels brings in another kicker just before the start of camp.

Tned
04-28-2009, 09:34 PM
Nice write up, RYO. I must admit that after sleeping on the draft, watching some video, reading scouting reports, I feel a lot better about what McD did. I still think the first for Smith could come back to haunt us, but I at least 'understand' his logic.

Also, after taking another look at our line candidates (before the UDFA longshots), I see why he didn't draft front seven help. Besides Ayers, and maybe Brown, Orakpo was the only real choice, and he's essentially what we have in Doom. A small DE that would need to be transitioned to OLB.

My best guess is that Ayers will actually be put at end if they can get some weight on him, rather than moved to OLB, and Doom and Harris will be the first choices to start at OLB.

I think we will see something like Thomas, Fields, Ayers across the front three, but that could wind up being Thomas or one of the UDFA's at NT.

When looking at our roster, and the players that were available when the Broncos picked, their weren't many players that would be 'clear' upgrades over the guys currently on our roster.

RunYouOver
04-28-2009, 09:43 PM
Nice write up, RYO. I must admit that after sleeping on the draft, watching some video, reading scouting reports, I feel a lot better about what McD did. I still think the first for Smith could come back to haunt us, but I at least 'understand' his logic.

Also, after taking another look at our line candidates (before the UDFA longshots), I see why he didn't draft front seven help. Besides Ayers, and maybe Brown, Orakpo was the only real choice, and he's essentially what we have in Doom. A small DE that would need to be transitioned to OLB.

My best guess is that Ayers will actually be put at end if they can get some weight on him, rather than moved to OLB, and Doom and Harris will be the first choices to start at OLB.

I think we will see something like Thomas, Fields, Ayers across the front three, but that could wind up being Thomas or one of the UDFA's at NT.

When looking at our roster, and the players that were available when the Broncos picked, their weren't many players that would be 'clear' upgrades over the guys currently on our roster.


Glad you liked it...at first that message on the top of the board scared me...I thought maybe I got banned for this post (I don't know how :lol: ), then I actually read it. :tsk:

getlynched47
04-28-2009, 09:49 PM
I'm glad we didn't draft Orakpo. He's a walking knee injury waiting to happen.

and I LOVE the Alphonso Smith pick...I'm just not totally on board with giving up a 1st round pick next year to get him. He's going to be a baller though. Think Antoine Winfield with ball skills!!

Tned
04-28-2009, 09:56 PM
I'm glad we didn't draft Orakpo. He's a walking knee injury waiting to happen.

and I LOVE the Alphonso Smith pick...I'm just not totally on board with giving up a 1st round pick next year to get him. He's going to be a baller though. Think Antoine Winfield with ball skills!!

I think a lot of us are in the same boat. We like the Smith pick, but are concerned about the price.

dogfish
04-28-2009, 10:30 PM
Nice write up, RYO. I must admit that after sleeping on the draft, watching some video, reading scouting reports, I feel a lot better about what McD did. I still think the first for Smith could come back to haunt us, but I at least 'understand' his logic.

Also, after taking another look at our line candidates (before the UDFA longshots), I see why he didn't draft front seven help. Besides Ayers, and maybe Brown, Orakpo was the only real choice, and he's essentially what we have in Doom. A small DE that would need to be transitioned to OLB.

My best guess is that Ayers will actually be put at end if they can get some weight on him, rather than moved to OLB, and Doom and Harris will be the first choices to start at OLB.

I think we will see something like Thomas, Fields, Ayers across the front three, but that could wind up being Thomas or one of the UDFA's at NT.

When looking at our roster, and the players that were available when the Broncos picked, their weren't many players that would be 'clear' upgrades over the guys currently on our roster.


given that ayers is 272 pounds and did all of 18 reps on the bench at the combine, i just don't see him starting at end this year in 3-4 fronts. . . . i do think he has the frame and skillset to potential transition to an effective five-technique at some point, but he's going to have to bulk up significantly and hit the weight room hard core. . .

i think his biggest impact this year might come as a situational rusher, and possibly in the rotation at LDE when we run 4-3 fronts-- or maybe even as an interior pass rusher in the nickel and dime packages. . . but i don't see him winning a starting spot at the five-tech. . . i suspect we'll probably end up going with marcus thomas and kenny peterson on the ends when we run 30 fronts, at least as the starters. . . .

Grover
04-28-2009, 10:38 PM
Aw man, you're soaking up the McDaniel's Kool-Aid dude. jk


I'm not pleased that the team has taken on a Patriots flair since hiring McDaniels. But I'm not in control of that. I'm in control of how I feel about it, and I've decided to give Josh a chance.

I thought McD and the X-Man were crazy for trading two thirds to move up to take Quinn. Then I saw the Quinn tape of his work at the combine and saw his introductory interview. And now I'm thinking he can pretty much marry my sister if he wants her. The dude is just a good person.

There's a lot of woulda, coulda shoulda going on right now. But heck, we woulda, shoulda, coulda made the playoffs last year had not the team totally laid down and died on us. I'm all for getting intelligent, versatile, football players and laying a beating on the Chargers, Chiefs and Raiders.

Let's play some BRONCOS FOOTBALL! I'll be in San Francisco for our opening pre-season game and cheering for my new Broncos.

gobroncsnv
04-28-2009, 10:53 PM
Well, for all of McD's moves to date, I still don't think his first year is gonna be as bad as Jimmy Johnson's, Bill Walsh's, or even Bellychick's. Granted, we had a lot more going for us on offense than any that these other coaches had, but even at that, you can't call his off-season moves as anything but a re-build. This is no mere tweaking that the Broncos are going through. Quite frankly, I think it was needed. Whatever good comes out of this team in the coming years, it will be mostly McD's doing. Shanny was working on a core, but a lot of that is no longer in place. Pretty much just our oline and receivers... everything else was turned upside-down. Will be interesting to watch the new product roll off the assembly line.

LordTrychon
04-29-2009, 12:20 AM
I think getting a stud RB from Georgia soothed a lot of fans' minds. I'll admit to being beyond perplexed at the pick trades at first... and annoyed at the responses I was hearing on the radio... but I'm over that.

It's in the books. Let's see them play. :salute:

frenchfan
04-29-2009, 01:27 AM
RYO, that was a nice analysis.

People have the right to like or dislike our draft.
I'm really not a draft expert (I don't even have a clue about college football).
But, according to many things I've read, I like the idea McD has a plan.

IMO, the draft is a lottery.
After all, in 1998, many people and experts thought Leaf would be a superstar, no? :D

IMO, we had too many issues to be solved in only 1 draft.
I like the fact we took the best players that could be succesful in our new system... OK, I didn't get some moves, but hell, I'm not a football coach, nor a football HC.
I really liked Moreno's pick... If he becomes our new TD, then I don't care we already had some many RB's in our roster.
And after all, I think it's better to take someone who will help us in the future than to only try to adress our issue by picking a guy that won't turn to be good here.

I'm not a McD blind lover or hater. I just know he is our coach and I think he knows what he's doing (and I hope so :D)... Sure, I was made about the McJayGate... But IMO, both are guilty. What is done is done. Now the plan is to make a team.
I don't expect us to be SB contender this year, but I really believe we could surprise some people too. Sure, Orton is really not Cutler, but he's not that bad too IMO.

This year is really exciting... We are in a new process and I'm dying to see what kind of team we'll be...

And anyway, bad or good year, I'm a Broncos fan and I'll still be.

Peace :beer:

Nomad
04-29-2009, 07:51 AM
Outstanding view of things frenchfan! You're more articulate than I am but that's my general view as well.

frenchfan
04-29-2009, 08:05 AM
Outstanding view of things frenchfan! You're more articulate than I am but that's my general view as well.Thanks a lot... :beer:

I've read an outstanding analysis on MHR. I recommand many people to read it... You can dislike our draft, but it makes you understand it.

The good news is that it seems we had a real plan indeed.
Now, will this plan be good? I don't know...
But I think it's better to have a plan even if it actually turns to be bad than no plan at all...

And a big question of this article is : is it better to select someone to try to adress a position with a bad prospect (or someone who has lower probability to be successful) or to select a player that has a high probabilty of success even if it doesn't adress a real need?
Good question, isn't it?

But at the end IMO, it's often a lottery... You bet... Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose... It's like playing poker... You can win with a very bad hand and you can lose with a very good one... The main thing is to have a plan and apply it. JMHO...

And very last thing : the truth is not there, it's on the field... So let's McD and co work and we'll see the result.

Go Broncos !

TXBRONC
04-29-2009, 08:07 AM
given that ayers is 272 pounds and did all of 18 reps on the bench at the combine, i just don't see him starting at end this year in 3-4 fronts. . . . i do think he has the frame and skillset to potential transition to an effective five-technique at some point, but he's going to have to bulk up significantly and hit the weight room hard core. . .

i think his biggest impact this year might come as a situational rusher, and possibly in the rotation at LDE when we run 4-3 fronts-- or maybe even as an interior pass rusher in the nickel and dime packages. . . but i don't see him winning a starting spot at the five-tech. . . i suspect we'll probably end up going with marcus thomas and kenny peterson on the ends when we run 30 fronts, at least as the starters. . . .

I keep hearing this kid is very fluid in his hips if that's the case he might just be hybrid DE/LB that we'll need.

Jaws
04-29-2009, 08:21 AM
I keep hearing this kid is very fluid in his hips if that's the case he might just be hybrid DE/LB that we'll need.

I like it when they wiggle well ;) :lol:

atwater27
04-29-2009, 08:29 AM
NIce take, but too sunshiny for my taste. You seriously can't agree with EVERY pick.

frenchfan
04-29-2009, 08:34 AM
NIce take, but too sunshiny for my taste. You seriously can't agree with EVERY pick.You and we don't have to Atwater... But you can at least understand them, even though you don't like all of them... McD had a plan... good or bad, time will tell...

:beer:

CoachChaz
04-29-2009, 09:13 AM
NIce take, but too sunshiny for my taste. You seriously can't agree with EVERY pick.

I think we can.

Moreno gives us the definite #1 back we've been lacking since Portis
Ayers gives us a versatile pass-rusher that can fill many roles
Smith gives us a CB for the future and a playmaker
McBath and Bruton give us safeties for the future...again, playmakers.
Quinn gives us an essential blocking TE once Graham is gone
McKinley is a steal as a solid slot guy
And the lineman give us depth.

They aren't all the "sunshiny" picks that most people want, but they are versatile, TEAM-oriented players that fill needs.

BroncosRockdaRockies
04-29-2009, 10:07 AM
You really want me to add onto this :lol:

Don't know too much about them yet, aside from the one NT we got could be a potentially solid pick up. I'll look into them more when we appear to be done, probably in a few weeks or so.

I must say I'm surprised we didn't look to sign a kicker, at the very least to give Prater some competition. We could have extreme confidence in him, but I still think he needs a little competition to get him back to his early season success.

I thought about this myself. My conclusion basically is the mistakes were possibly mental mistakes right? So by not picking up anyone else this could possibly give this guy more confidence, but at the same time by releasing Patrick Ramsey the holder was it really Praters fault? I am not sure but maybe this is the determing factor or the next step in the process of elimination?

I like Prater and in all actuality his numbers were pretty close to Elams Rookie Year stats.:salute:

TXBRONC
04-29-2009, 10:11 AM
I thought about this myself. My conclusion basically is the mistakes were possibly mental mistakes right? So by not picking up anyone else this could possibly give this guy more confidence, but at the same time by releasing Patrick Ramsey the holder was it really Praters fault? I am not sure but maybe this is the determing factor or the next step in the process of elimination?

I like Prater and in all actuality his numbers were pretty close to Elams Rookie Year stats.:salute:

I think Kern was the holder this past season. Ramsey was on IR.

Fan in Exile
04-29-2009, 10:14 AM
Mareno is a surefire first ballot HOF. Someday Burger Bill is just going to stand up and say, "Ladies and Gentlemen Noshawn."

Airs is going to be a pass rushing beast from the 3-4 DE spot. He's going to put on thirty pounds and just crush o-line people, he is totally in the mold of Warren Sapp.

Smith is going to remind us all of another second round drafted Smith, I do mean Rod. He's going to be a great NickleBack for us now then next year or Secondary is going to:rockon: when he beats Champ out for teh number one spot.

McBath is going to be a great SS that we really need Dawkins is old and is going to get replaced by the middle of the season by game 3 at the latest.

Quin is DA BOMB I could really see him moving out to one of the OT spots. Other than that he's going to be great for when Hamilton gets a blow to the head and has to retire.

I don't know as much about the rest of the guys but when you're picking so many in the third round you can't expect them to be starters this year like the first five are going to be. I'm sure that they'll spend time as backups and next year or 2010 at the latest they'll be holding down one of the 20 starting positions.
































For future reference this is what too sun-shiney would look like. :D:elefant:

BroncosRockdaRockies
04-29-2009, 10:15 AM
I think Kern was the holder this past season. Ramsey was on IR.

You are right sorry I have a hard time separating Idiots when they all play the same.:laugh:

But regardless I still think Prater is the right Kicker for Denver.

RunYouOver
04-29-2009, 02:30 PM
NIce take, but too sunshiny for my taste. You seriously can't agree with EVERY pick.

Sunshiny? Probably so. :heh:

But that's the thing...I do, now at least. At first almost every pick caught me off guard, but I thought about them for a while, realized WHY the pick was made, and if I didn't love it, I at least agreed that it made sense.

Will there wind up being better players that we passed on? Of course, but that's always the case for every team, no one drafts the best players all the time.

But the way McD went about this, and the way it turned out and he explained it...it makes a great deal of sense to me.

TXBRONC
04-29-2009, 04:42 PM
Sunshiny? Probably so. :heh:

But that's the thing...I do, now at least. At first almost every pick caught me off guard, but I thought about them for a while, realized WHY the pick was made, and if I didn't love it, I at least agreed that it made sense.

Will there wind up being better players that we passed on? Of course, but that's always the case for every team, no one drafts the best players all the time.

But the way McD went about this, and the way it turned out and he explained it...it makes a great deal of sense to me.

I have no problems any of the picks I'm just a little skeptical about not drafting defensive tackles.

topscribe
04-29-2009, 04:52 PM
NIce take, but too sunshiny for my taste. You seriously can't agree with EVERY pick.

Honestly, I do . . . except for maybe Quinn. If McD wanted another blocker at
TE, why didn't he give Mustard a longer look? I suppose McD wanted more of
a receiver out of the blocker, ala Graham, so the defense won't know what
that given TE is going to do. Yet I understand Scheffler has been improving
every year on his blocking.

I was happy with the other selections . . . I think . . . but I personally would
have liked a defensive player going where they took Quinn.

But what do I know? :noidea:

-----

WARHORSE
04-29-2009, 05:08 PM
I dont think the special teams is going to be improved.

I think special teams this year is going to be exactly that: Special.

Im talking about the coverage units for sure, and I think we will move to block some punts this year...........whooooopeeeee!

We have added quite a few special teams gunners.

We also have a number of return options as well.

Looking at them all, I wouldnt be surprised to see three guys hitting the ball carrier on each KR and PR.


Seriously.