RBs add wrinkle to Broncos' draft plan

[Denver Native (Carol)]

http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_12187179

There are some certainties, but far more possibilities.

The Broncos are converting their defense to a 3-4 alignment. This is known. They need to fortify their defensive front seven. No secret there. In possession of the Nos. 12 and 18 picks for the NFL draft that will be selected Saturday, the Broncos would love to come away with defensive tackle B.J. Raji and defensive end Tyson Jackson.

But what happens if Raji, who could go to any one of the teams in the top 10, and Jackson, who could go to Kansas City at No. 3, aren't there by the time the Broncos are placed on the 12th-pick clock, much less at No. 18?

Among the possibilities that could be generated by such a scenario would be for Broncos coach Josh McDaniels to take an irresistible gander at a running back such as Georgia's Knowshon Moreno or Ohio State's Chris "Beanie" Wells, or a receiver such as Florida's Percy Harvin.

At his coaching core, McDaniels is an offensive coordinator. If the Broncos' draft board presents the choice of a fourth-best defensive lineman or first-best running back, could McDaniels be blamed if he sends word to New York to nab Moreno?

"His lateral quickness and burst is incredible," NFL draft analyst Mike Mayock said of Moreno. "He makes people miss. His acceleration is incredible. He catches the football. He's a willing blocker and pass protector. The only thing he doesn't have is the ability to run away from people in the open field."

Defense remains the Broncos' top priority. Even if Raji and Jackson are gone, the Broncos may consider defensive end Robert Ayers, defensive tackle Peria Jerry or outside linebackers Brian Orakpo or Brian Cushing in the first round.

But even after signing veteran tailbacks Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan and J.J. Arrington during free agency, the Broncos most likely will draft another running back this weekend. If not Moreno or Wells in the second round, the Broncos could consider Pittsburgh's LeSean McCoy with their No. 48 pick in the second round, Alabama's Glen Coffee in the fourth round or perhaps Boise State's Ian Johnson in the seventh.

"Those second-day guys, you're all hoping there's a Terrell Davis out there someplace," former Baltimore coach Brian Billick said of the former Broncos running back surprise. "What we're seeing more and more as a trend is a lack of willingness to take a running back early in the draft because I think this has clearly become a two-back running back league."

The draft also could say something about the Broncos' confidence in receiver Brandon Marshall. He has been their most productive receiver the past two seasons and because he's only 25, his best years should be ahead.

But Marshall also raises immediate concerns at Dove Valley. In the past seven weeks, he has been arrested and underwent hip surgery. Charges of disorderly conduct against Marshall were quickly dropped, and the Broncos remain hopeful he won't be suspended. Ordinarily, they wouldn't seriously consider a receiver with one of their top three picks because of the position's long learning curve.

"Now, the two guys you might see a level of productivity (from are) Jeremy Maclin and Percy Harvin because they also might give you some return capability," Billick said. "And they also might give you productivity on third down. But I don't know if there's anybody in this draft that you're expecting to come in and have an 80- or 90-catch year. It's a much tougher transition position for wide receivers than probably — other than quarterback — any other position."

[BroncoNut]

nice read Carol, thanks.

interesting, grab a Harvin or a Beanie wills if jackson and Raji are unavailable. I'd like to see Orakpo at that point. as far as running backs, Iowa's Shonn Greene. He's projected to go as late (or early) as the late 2nd round or early into the 3rd. To heck an Ian Johnson or other 7th rounder rb. There are no more Terrel Davises.

[BroncoNut]

I am not expecting Cushing to be available. I think Kansas City will take him (or her) at 3.

[ikillz0mbies]

The draft outlook has changed a lot within the past few days. Tyson Jackson going as high as 3 and Raji going to the Packers at 9 and what not. The Broncos options at the 2 best players for a 3-4 defense shortens. But that doesn't mean there isn't any potential left. There is still Ron Brace and Jarron Gilbert. If Broncos HAVE to reach for Brace at 18, I could live with that. Then they can get Gilbert at 48. At 12, I wouldn't mind Moreno at all.

[BroncoNut]

I think Billick makes an interesting point on the league really being a 2 running back tiered system. Another reason why it's foolish, imo to draft a running back later than the 4th. I don't know why I believe that, but I just do, for this year and what's available at the position anyway

[BroncoNut]

I'd rather we take percy harvin for returns; before Moreno even

[Hoshdude7]

Glenn coffee went to my highschool

[BroncoNut]

Glenn coffee went to my highschool

with you?

[Hoshdude7]

with you?

Not at the same time. But I think his brother still does

[Requiem / The Dagda]

I really hope people read this article; it makes a ton of sense. Pat Bowlen, Josh McDaniels and the rest of the coaching staff from the fans on down understand that defense is the number one need for this team going into the draft. However, this article makes a great point. The scenario is this: the Denver Broncos are sitting there at #12. Raji is off the board (top nose tackle) and so is the prime 5 technique in the draft Tyson Jackson. Thus, the best two options at arguably the two biggest positions of need on the defense aren't there. You can also factor in that it'll be likely that a DE/OLB hybrid guy like Orakpo or Brown will likely be gone at this time as well. Keep in mind Curry will be gone as well, so it's likely our top four or five defensive options aren't even on the board at #12.

Denver doesn't need an offensive tackle at all, so they won't even be considered at #12 -- and I sincerely doubt Sanchez will be there. So that pretty much leaves us with these options: (A) Draft the best offensive skill position player you have rated or (B) Go with your next best rated defensive. The problem is; who is rated higher? My guess is that there could be a higher grade on a back like Moreno on the Broncos board as opposed to the #2, #3 or #4 DE/LB available on board. If the grade disparity is low amongst a grouping of those players (and I assume it is considered the number of prospects there are) -- I would figure Denver would opt for the higher ranked player regardless of need if they felt like one of those defensive players would be there at #18.

Maybe my bases of assumption are wrong, but *shrug* -- I'm not sure how the Broncos draft board actually goes. If Raji or Jackson are at #12, it is an absolute no-brainer. I'd even toss Everrette Brown into that equation as well. If they aren't, then offensive can and should be strongly considered at that option if it poses the best value.

[BroncoNut]

Not at the same time. But I think his brother still does

Not good enough :tsk:


:laugh:

[Lonestar]

As bad as OUR front seven and for that matter the entire D was last year in terms of raw talent..

I could care less it it is the third best NT, OLB or DE.. I take them on day one.. period.. it is only a stretch if they bust.. if they do not they are franchise players for the next 4-16 years..

The very base of the D for that long..

Think of having 5 top notch players to anchor this team for the next almost decade..

Unlike every year not knowing WHO o the hell our DL or LB's are gonna be.. not having a decent safety since Atwater.. What mikey did to this D is almost criminal..


RB's have in the past be a dime a dozen and for the most part have the shortest shelf life.... And frankly the NE model we are moving to clearly proves a RBBC ethic.. since Billie came to power..

[SmilinAssasSin27]

Sooo...am I still out of line for wanting TJax at #12???

[SmilinAssasSin27]

I would actually like to see Denver trade up from both spots if it meant Raji AND TJax could be taken. Not saying make huge leaps, but if Raji was there at #8 or 9, I'd use a mid round pick to move up. Then I'd try to use the 18 and another mid or future pick to move up to 15 for TJax...assuming they are there.

[DenBronx]

i dont know why linebackers keep getting over looked. there will be some really good value at 18 for lb's. then go with brace in the 2nd or terrance taylor on day 2. plenty of options if we go with moreno at 12 folks and we really could use that extra weapon on offense....so dont spazz folks.

[SmilinAssasSin27]

There is way too much talent in this draft in our areas of need for us to REACH at Brace at #18.

[Requiem / The Dagda]

I'd give away my first born if we took Brace at #18.

[omac]

That #1 pick from the Lions that would've allowed us to drop down as low as we want sure looks pretty good right now; Raji or Jackson would be a sure thing then. We'd only have to live with ... Daunte Culpepper. :D

[TXBRONC]

There is way too much talent in this draft in our areas of need for us to REACH at Brace at #18.

Shanahan was always crucified for drafting players deemed to be reaches. If it wasn't acceptable when Shanahan was the coach then I don't see how it would acceptable for McDaniels to do so.

[Superchop 7]

Moreno puts butts in the seats.

It wouldn't surprise me at all.

HOWEVER, he will be there at 18.

[nevcraw]

How many NT's pay immediate dividens in the NFL? I'm not really sure myself but it seems that it is a postion that takes a long while for the players to reach potential.. If I'm correct then reaching on one with other potential starters still available would seem to be fruitless.

[BroncoNut]

Moreno puts butts in the seats.

It wouldn't surprise me at all.

HOWEVER, he will be there at 18.

he's a tough back

[Lonestar]

Shanahan was always crucified for drafting players deemed to be reaches. If it wasn't acceptable when Shanahan was the coach then I don't see how it would acceptable for McDaniels to do so.

That was mainly because he took folks in the 2nd that were thought to be 4th to 5th rounders IF drafted at all.. Watts come to mind on this one..

God know how many first rounders.. were took that should have been second day picks if after seeing their production maybe not at all..


If you have an ITCH and God only knows we do considering the sorry assed state the D has been in for a long time..

YOU SCRATCH IT.. D only on DAY one and a good part of day two..

[Lonestar]

How many NT's pay immediate dividens in the NFL? I'm not really sure myself but it seems that it is a postion that takes a long while for the players to reach potential.. If I'm correct then reaching on one with other potential starters still available would seem to be fruitless.

If you do not get one this year then how many MORE years does it put you behind....

[xzn]

While defense is certainly the greatest need, by a long shot, you have to have a draft board which grades players out and stick to it as you make your selections. Especially in the first round.

For example, if Moreno had a 95 grade and the best available front seven defensive player had a 91 grade you'd have to really consider taking the more talented player.

Another option not being discussed here is to take Malcolm Jenkins, who would certainly be an upgrade over Hill or Goodman.

A darkhorse possibility is Josh Freeman... he'll be there at #12...

Again, this is all assuming that Tyson and BJ (plus Orakpo) are gone when we pick.

I don't like Maybin or Brown, they seem too much like what we already have in Elvis and Jarvis.

[Lonestar]

While defense is certainly the greatest need, by a long shot, you have to have a draft board which grades players out and stick to it as you make your selections. Especially in the first round.

For example, if Moreno had a 95 grade and the best available front seven defensive player had a 91 grade you'd have to really consider taking the more talented player.

Another option not being discussed here is to take Malcolm Jenkins, who would certainly be an upgrade over Hill or Goodman.

A darkhorse possibility is Josh Freeman... he'll be there at #12...

Again, this is all assuming that Tyson and BJ (plus Orakpo) are gone when we pick.

I don't like Maybin or Brown, they seem too much like what we already have in Elvis and Jarvis.



We are not in any position to take BPA unless it has to do with the DEFENSE as a whole..

After the Superbowl years we had that luxury but the farther we got away from 1999 the less proficient we were on choosing..

If we only had ONE GAPING hole by all means take BPA.. but since we seem to have 8 on D alone.. you spend your picks there even if that means passing on a RB that will most likely be around 4 or less years..

[dogfish]

Moreno puts butts in the seats.

It wouldn't surprise me at all.

HOWEVER, he will be there at 18.

not so sure about that. . . i think there's a very good chance the jets take him at 17. . . .

[roomemp]

We are not in any position to take BPA unless it has to do with the DEFENSE as a whole..

After the Superbowl years we had that luxury but the farther we got away from 1999 the less proficient we were on choosing..

If we only had ONE GAPING hole by all means take BPA.. but since we seem to have 8 on D alone.. you spend your picks there even if that means passing on a RB that will most likely be around 4 or less years..

I think this philosophy is part of the reason we are in the situation we are in. Too many times Denver has drafted because of need and got burned (see Jarvis Moss) I say take the best player available at a position where there is either a definate need or a position that can be upgraded

[claymore]

Moreno puts butts in the seats.

It wouldn't surprise me at all.

HOWEVER, he will be there at 18.
Thats been my belief all along. We have to sell jersey's. Its a business first, and Bowlen will have an influence on this big time. Not many kids want a Clady jersey.


We are not in any position to take BPA unless it has to do with the DEFENSE as a whole..

After the Superbowl years we had that luxury but the farther we got away from 1999 the less proficient we were on choosing..

If we only had ONE GAPING hole by all means take BPA.. but since we seem to have 8 on D alone.. you spend your picks there even if that means passing on a RB that will most likely be around 4 or less years..

How do you figure? We have a LT, 1 CB, 1 LB, and one WR that are considered above average to elite. All others are unknowns, or flat out suck. We are in a great place to take almost any player rated high at their position.

[xzn]

Sorry Jrwiz, I disagree. Now if it was a choice between a 94 grade defender and a 95 grade RB I'd go with the defender.

But with a high pick, twelve overall in this case, you have to get value and drafting for need will get us a repeat of the Jarvis Moss catastrophe!

Need should be a "tiebreaker" for similarly rated players but you have to have a draft board that applies to your system and stick to it when selecting.

[CrazyHorse]

Not many kids want a Clady jersey.


Quoted for truth!

[xzn]

I think this philosophy is part of the reason we are in the situation we are in. Too many times Denver has drafted because of need and got burned (see Jarvis Moss) I say take the best player available at a position where there is either a definate need or a position that can be upgraded

I just saw this article on NFL.com/draft, which supports your view for the most part. Btw, I share that view. :salute:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d80fe53bf&template=without-video-with-comments&confirm=true

Best available vs. need: Philosophies clash on draft day
By Steve Wyche | NFL.com
Senior Writer


Atlanta Falcons coach Mike Smith, the reigning coach of the year and self-described personnel junkie, unabashedly proclaims that his team's philosophy when it comes to the draft is to fill positions of need. That way of thinking clearly represents the minority view in the NFL.

Drafting for need
Teams are no longer approaching the draft with a "best player available" mentality, writes Vic Carucci. Instead, filling specific needs has become the primary focus. More ... Typically, teams say they want to draft the best player available. That's like most people saying they want to drive the best car available (that they can afford) or live in the nicest house available (in a neighborhood with good schools for the kids) or take the most beautiful available girl to prom (if she doesn't mind the sky-blue tux and mom being the chauffeur).

Drafting the best player available usually includes the unmentioned benefit of fitting a need. So what do front office executives look for on draft day?

"It's best player," said 49ers general manager Scot McCloughan. "It's cliché, but it's the best player. Now, when I was with Green Bay, we had Brett Favre. We would never take a quarterback in the first round with Brett Favre in his prime. But 99 percent of the time, if you take the best player available you'll get the best bang for the buck for the long haul. There are 32 teams and not everybody has a roster they think is that good. You never have enough good football players."



True, but with a salary cap limiting the stockpiling of high-end talent, adding the best player isn't always feasible -- roster-wise or economically. Often times, a team won't pursue a player in free agency or the front/expensive end of the draft if it has a player(s) at the same position occupying a sizable percentage of the salary cap.

Picking for value
Teams tend not to invest too much money in one spot, which is why Cincinnati was willing to part with free-agent wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh and why Arizona could trade wide receiver Anquan Boldin. Chad Ochocinco (Bengals) and Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals) are the star players for those teams and too many names on the marquee at the same position won't allow proper balance in filling out other positions.

As to how that relates to the draft, it's pretty safe to assume Atlanta and Baltimore won't be choosing quarterbacks in the first round, the Vikings will probably pass on a tailback with the 22nd overall pick and New England might not be adding a running back or quarterback with its first (23rd) selection because they're fairly well set at those positions.

"We try to pick the best player and we are conscious of what our needs are and we definitely want to pick for value," Giants general manager Jerry Reese said.

Value is dictated by a pre-draft grade a team gives to a player, but also how certain players fit into schemes or systems. LSU defensive end Tyson Jackson (6-4, 295) is a prototype 3-4 defensive end but not an ideal end for a 4-3 front, which tend to use smaller, fleeter ends. So teams like Kansas City, Green Bay and Denver, which are switching to a 3-4 scheme and have top-12 draft picks, could value Jackson a lot more than 4-3 teams, where Jackson could ideally be suited as a run-stopping left end or a tackle.



"The philosophy of the team will dictate the type of players you draft, i.e.: smaller, athletic offensive linemen vs. road hogs or tall physical cornerbacks vs. cornerbacks that can fly," Rams general manager Billy Devaney said.

The philosophy of most teams is to draft the best player available and address areas of need in free agency or through trades. This offseason, though, several teams with holes to fill have sidestepped free agency and the trade market. Economics or a limited supply of players at a certain position could have kept a team from pursuing veterans.

The Packers, for instance, need to address an offensive tackle spot and acquire the proper personnel to play in the 3-4 defense. They failed to lure targeted players (DE Chris Canty) and didn't show much interest in others, so they will fill those positions through the draft. The Indianapolis Colts, who rarely get involved in free agency, also have needs along the defensive line, at wide receiver and at running back. But they stayed true to their ways and will use the draft to re-tool.

Consistency is key
The teams that have drafted well historically are the most competitive year in and year out. New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are playoff regulars who are beholden to philosophies that are draft-based. Because of their consistent success, they tend not to draft until the later part of the first round and beyond, allowing them the liberty of taking the best player available, since they are drafting, often times, for depth.

"New England and Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, those are top-notch talent teams, where it's a lot tougher to bring in starters than it is for evolving teams," Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff said. "It's imperative to evaluate each draft on the strength of draft and strength of the team."



That is a major trait of some of the better drafting teams. Besides basing the draft on a projected roster for the upcoming season, making choices on the prospects eligible in future drafts also factors into the thought process.

One of the reasons the Falcons opted to select quarterback Matt Ryan instead of nose tackle Glenn Dorsey last year was because they weren't enamored with the 2009 quarterback class. They figured if Ryan would be the best prospect in two drafts, they'd better make their move. He was a player that filled a need but he also was the best player available.

The best-player principle also comes into effect when teams look at their own roster and assess the longevity of current players based on age, injury history and contract status. The San Diego Chargers, at some point of this draft, could select a running back, even though LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles are on board -- for a lot of money.

Tomlinson is 29 and has been getting hurt more often. Sproles, if a long-term contract isn't finalized, could be lost after this season. Adding insurance via the draft often helps teams sustain and succeed.

"We picked a defensive end a couple of years ago (Mathias Kiwanuka, 2006) and we had a Hall of Famer (Michael Strahan) and a Pro Bowler (Osi Umenyiora) -- and a future Pro Bowler (Justin Tuck) as the third guy," Reese said. "We still picked a defensive end. So if the guy is a good player, we will still pick him."

The key for teams that prefer to draft for need is not to "reach" for a player they don't value highly, but who plays a position bereft of talent. Besides having to pay that player more than his projected value, that player might not necessarily have the specs of the position -- at least on a three-down basis. His failure to meet the expectations of his draft status brings heat on the player and the person(s) who drafted him.

"It is very important that player that you pick is of the quality and value of that pick," Dimitroff said.

At some point, even those teams that select the "best available" player will select for need, Devaney said. Around the third or fourth round, teams really dial in for depth at certain positions or go after players at a devalued position, like guard or safety. Steals also are discovered at this point, like Houston running back Steve Slaton, who the Texans picked in the third round last year.

"You have your philosophy and you have to stick with it," McCloughan said. "If you change year-in-and-year out, you're not building your organization the best way. Successful or not, you stick to the vision and add good young talent every year. That's why the draft is so important to building a consistent team."